According to Advanced NFL Statistics, Jim Harbaugh made three decisions which cost the 49ers seven percent of a win in the Super Bowl. Those decisions were:
1. Punting on fourth-and-four from the 49ers’ 12 yard line with 2:07 left in the second quarter, down 14-3. The offense should have attempted to pick up the first down. This misjudgment cost the 49ers two percent of a win.
2. Kicking a field goal on fourth-and-two from the Ravens’ 16 yard line with 3:10 left in the third quarter, down 28-20. Again, the offense should have gone for the first down. This misjudgment cost the 49ers four percent of a win.
3. Kicking an extra point down 28-12 in third quarter. Harbaugh should have called for a two-point conversion. This misjudgment cost the 49ers one percent of a win.
I am not agreeing with this analysis. I present it because it’s thought provoking and somewhat controversial. Advanced NFL Statistics also takes issue with John Harbaugh in that game.
To read a thorough statistical analysis of these issues, click here.