NFL Draft 2016: Player comparisons

When I watch the Combine, I like to compare current draft prospects to ones from the past. Here are seven comparisons I have made so far. Tell me what you think of them, and please leave your own comparisons below.

1. DE/OLB Joey Bosa
Height: 6-5
Weight: 269
Arm length: 33 3/8
40-yard dash: 4.86
Bench press: 24
Vertical jump: 32
Broad jump: 120
20-yard shuttle: 4.21
3-cone: 6.89
Ryan Kerrigan (2011)
Height: 6-4
Weight: 267
Arm length: 33 3/8
40-yard dash: 4.79
Bench: 31
Vertical jump: 33 ½
Broad jump: 122
20-yard shuttle: 4.39
3-cone: 7.18

2. DE/OLB Shaq Lawson 
Height: 6-3
Weight: 269
Arm length: 32 3/4
40-yard dash: 4.70
Vertical jump: 33
Broad jump: 120
20-yard shuttle: 4.21
3-cone: 7.16
Shawne Merriman (2005)
Height: 6-4
Weight: 272
Arm length: 32 7/8
40-yard dash: 4.64/4.68 (depending on the source)
Vertical jump: 40
Broad jump: 121
20-yard shuttle: 4.21
3-cone: N/A

3. DE/OLB Emmanuel Ogbah 
Height: 6-4
Weight: 273
Arm length: 35 1/2
40-yard dash: 4.63
10-yard split: 1.59
Vertical jump: 35 1/2
Broad jump: 121
20-yard shuttle: 4.50
3-cone: 7.26
Adalius Thomas (2000)
Height: 6-2
Weight: 270
Arm length: N/A (Guessing 34+)
40-yard dash: 4.54
10-yard split: 1.58
Vertical jump: 38 1/2
Broad jump: 120
20-yard shuttle: 4.42
3-cone: N/A

4. WR Laquon Treadwell 
Height: 6-2
Weight: 221
40-yard dash: N/A
Vertical jump: 33
Broad jump: 117
Adarius Bowman (2008)
Height: 6-3
Weight: 223
40-yard dash: 4.74
Vertical jump: 33 1/2
Broad jump: N/A

5. WR Jordan Payton 
Height: 6-1
Weight: 207
Arm length: 32 ½
Hand size: 10 1/8
40-yard dash: 4.47
Vertical jump: 34 ½
Broad jump: 122
20-yard shuttle: 4.33
3-cone: 7.08
Justin Blackmon (2012)
Height: 6-1
Weight: 207
Arm length: 32 ½
Hand size: 9 ¼
40-yard dash: 4.46
Vertical jump: 35
Broad jump: 123
20-yard shuttle: 4.38
3-cone: 7.13

6. WR/TE Devon Casjuste
Height: 6-4
Weight: 234
Arm length: 33
Hand size: 10 ¾
40-yard dash: 4.62
Bench press: 12
Vertical jump: 36
Broad jump: 123
20-yard shuttle: 4.20
3-cone: 6.49
Joran Reed (2013)
Height: 6-3
Weight: 236
Arm length: 33
Hand size: 10
40-yard dash: 4.72
Bench press: 16
Vertical jump: N/A
Broad jump: N/A
20-yard shuttle: N/A
3-cone: N/A

7. RB Peyton Barber 
Height: 5-10
Weight: 228
Arm length: 30 ¼
Hand size: 9 3/8
40-yard dash: 4.64
Bench: 20
Vertical jump: 32 ½
Broad jump: 111
20-yard shuttle: 4.21
3-cone: 7.00
Arian Foster (2009)
Height: 6-1
Height: 226
Arm length: N/A
Hand size: N/A
40-yard dash: 4.69
Vertical jump: 32
Broad jump: 117
20-yard shuttle: 4.53
3-cone: 7.09

  1. the Barber Foster comparison; 3 inch height difference can be significant. Foster at 6’1″ has an upright running style that is further hindered by his height. Consequently I think he tends to take too many shots by defenders to the body. At 5’10” Barber may be centered a bit lower and may bounce off of tacklers a bit better…or at least not be punished as much by them. I haven’t watched film on Barber so I don’t know.

    the Merriman comparison is kind of hard. Physically I suppose they’re similar. Even at 6’4″ Merriman was built kind of thick…he always looked bigger than 270 IMO. Lawson is an inch shorter…does he have the same kind of frame? Merriman’s performance fell off a cliff after he tested positive for PEDs and was injured. He was never the same player…I wonder if his combine numbers were effected by PEDs too?

          1. Piggly Wiggly is a super market chain in middle America. Their stores are often in rural areas. By my comment I meant that many of these college players, despite their measurables, won’t make it in the NFL, and some of them, because they have no other marketable skills, will end up bagging groceries. It’s a shame, I know, and I’m not making fun of them, just telling it like it sometimes is.

      1. in some areas Piggly Wiggly rebranded as PW Markets. at least this was the case 20 or so years ago. btw. didn’t Kurt Warner do both?

        for me, comparing measurables sometimes can sometimes indicate if a guy is playing out of position or maybe possible to change or increase his role (hybrid?) his position. it can both ways. an undersized DE can be moved to OLB because he looks like he can move well in space. or a slower Corner can be moved to Safety (if on film he’s shown some tackling skills and awareness in space/zone).

        1. Not to be confused with Joey Franco’s PW Market, which no one can confirm has any relation to the PW you speak of.

          BTW, RIP Joey Franco’s PW Market

  2. You left out a very important player…DeForrest Buckner. Bookending Armstead would give the Niners two huge DE who have size, speed, wingspan, and “want to”. I get comparisons to Buckner wouldn’t be easy…but, come on, man, you can’t leave a guy out who should be the first true (3-4) DL taken in this draft.

      1. how about Calais Campbell? Buckner has more pass rush skills compared to Armstead. coming out of college Campbell had 19.5 career sacks. Buckner had 18.

        1. Buckner is more developed, but Armstead is more explosive. I think Armstead has the higher ceiling.

          Campbell is more explosive than both of them.

          1. My bold plan – draft Myles Jack then jump back into the bottom of the first round and grab Shaq Lawson. this would instantly rebuild our LB corp to develop along with Armstead, Dial and Williams. Could develop into a pretty scary front seven. Like I said, its bold – would use a lot of draft capital, but what do you think?

  3. Grant when I touted Armstead as the 9ers 1st pick last year you were very negative. When did you change your mind about him.

    1. It was a good call OC. I was not happy about drafting Armstead with the 15th or was it 18th pick. You tried to convince me why I should view the pick positively and, so far, you’re right.

  4. Grant, i would like to see Bosa get drafted whata difference he would make. Andwhat do think about signing Long from the Rams.

  5. From PFT:

    Jets assigned the franchise tag to RE Muhammad Wilkerson.

    The expected move guarantees Wilkeron’s 2016 salary at $15.7 million. The Jets are expected to shop Wilkerson for a potential trade, but chatter coming back from the Combine suggested they’re unlikely to find a suitor willing to pay an aggressive-if-reasonable asking price. Wilkerson will probably play out this season in New York and hit unrestricted free agency next year at age 27.

  6. Shaw Lawson is the most explosive defensive lineman in the draft. Bosa almost doesn’t make the top 10.

    There is a name that no one is saying that is going to surprise everyone when he suddenly becomes a first round candidate: Matthew Judon. I expect most will say he’s a 4-3 DE but he has the athleticism to play both schemes. Anyway, Matthew Judon will be drafted in the first round, you heard it here first.

    Here is the top 10 explosive DL’s in descending order:

    Shaq Lawson
    Matthew Judon
    Robert Nkemdiche
    Emmanuel Ogbah
    Noah Spence
    —————–Below this line is considered average explosiveness
    Shilique Calhoun
    Anthony Zettel**
    Joey Bosa
    Romeo Ikwara**
    Shawn Oakman

    ** These guys are draft diamonds. They’ll be 5th round or later pickups that have the potential to be really great players.

      1. Oh, WOW! You don’t have many of the big names at all. No Reed, Buckner, Johnson, Robinson; how are you computing “explosiveness”?

        1. Read the whole thing first big guy: “Here is the top 10 explosive DL’s in descending order”

          Robinson and Johnson simply didn’t make the top 10. Reed and Buckner didn’t perform in the bench press so they are missing a variable in their score so I can’t include them.

          1. CFC

            My all caps were merely an expression of surprise, not sarcasm. Thanks for bringing this info. It’s good to see it laid out so clearly.

        2. It’s nothing new or secret. Most if not all NFL scouts calculate a prospects bench press, vertical jump and broad jump score(in feet) and take the summation of those numbers. There is enough history to show that prospects that score 70 or higher have a high percentage of turning into star or all pro level talents. They call this score the prospects ‘explosive’ factor.

        3. If you can’t calculate Reed and Buckner because they didn’t perform in the BP, how can you calculate Shaq Lawson? Based on a score of 76 he would need to put up 33 reps on the bench press, but he didn’t participate at the combine.

            1. No wait I see what I did. I listed his VJ number twice. Thanks for catching that, I’ll go double check my other numbers but with that correction it puts Judon as #1.

          1. Really?!!! Someone on here was touting him as the second coming of Dontari Poe. I haven’t been able to follow the combine properly yet.

            1. I’m merely commenting on his ‘explosive’ factor. Scoring low doesn’t mean he can’t be a good player.

    1. Judon has been mentioned by a few sites. He had the most sacks in College football so he’s not an unknown by any stretch. I doubt he goes in the first round, but he has some good tools to develop.

      1. I’m not seeing him listed by most or at least certainly not as a day 1 choice. It’s too early but by April I guarantee that will change.

    2. Here’s the list with their scores

      Shaq Lawson 76
      Matthew Judon 74.08
      Robert Nkemdiche 72.7
      Memmanuel Ogbah 71.08
      Noah Spence 70.08
      ——————————————
      Shilique Calhoun 67.58
      Anthony Zettel 67.58
      Joey Bosa 66
      Romeo Ikwara 66
      Shawn Oakman 65.25
      Jonathan Bullard 64.7
      Bronson Kaufusi 64.25
      Sheldon Day 59.5
      Austin Johnson 59.25
      Carl Nassib 59
      A’Shawn Robinson 56.83
      Adolphus Washington 56.25
      Jihad Ward 54.25

      1. Unless I’m reading the formula wrong, those scores seem a bit off to me. First off Lawson didn’t participate in the bench press according to the NFL combine page. And for Ogbah I get a score of 65.58.

        1. I’m seeing that I’ve transposed a couple of the numbers on my spreadsheet. Real boner mistake. Thanks for catching I’m fixing and revising it now.

        2. From what I can see those were the only errors m apologies for the shoddy work.

          Here ‘s the correct list

          Matthew Judon 74.08
          Robert Nkemdiche 72.7
          Noah Spence 70.08
          Shilique Calhoun 67.58
          Anthony Zettel 67.58
          Joey Bosa 66
          Romeo Okwara 66
          Memmanuel Ogbah 65.58
          Shawn Oakman 65.25
          Jonathan Bullard 64.7
          Bronson Kaufusi 64.25
          Sheldon Day 59.5
          Austin Johnson 59.25
          Carl Nassib 59
          A’Shawn Robinson 56.83
          Adolphus Washington 56.25
          Jihad Ward 54.25

          1. When you compare that to last year where there were quite a few edge rushers above 70, including most of the top guys, it shows this group isn’t particularly explosive. Not to say these guys won’t be good, but the explosion number has been shown to be a pretty decent indicator of success.

            1. Yeah I agree. That’s why I’m in favor of drafting Lawson or Ogbah with the seventh pick this year. Explosiveness drops off quick after those two. Don’t know much about Tapper, though.

              1. I have been saying Ogbah before the All Star games! I had Shilique Calhoun as a draftee that would rise after combine but his 40 time was very disappointing.

              2. Yeah, the depth and quality of the edge players leaves a little bit to be desired for me. Basically Lawson, Spence and Ogbah all tested pretty well for explosiveness measures, but none of them were off the charts.

            2. A cursory glance shows that last year there were around 11 DL that scored over 70. I’ll have to check 2014 to see if that was unusually high or not but it would suggest that yea the explosive edge rushers are a bit thin this year.

              1. I’m seeing about 8 for 2014. I’ll check the entire 2016 results to see where this class really falls in.

              2. There were 8 DL that scored 70 or higher from this years combine. It’s not that this year is particularly weak in explosive players it’s just that they aren’t all the top names.

              3. There’s one 69 also and given the possibility that Lawson could get close it’s a pretty average class I’d say. Last year was a good class for explosive DL.

              4. It appears to be a good, not great class of Dlinemen. There is no wow player in the group. We could probably get Hargrave in the 3rd and get comparable production from a guy taken in the first round.

                You know Baalke is salivating over Ogbah’s combine performance and measureables though.

              5. CFC,
                Good stuff bud.
                Out of the those players that rated 70+ do you have a count (or names) on how many of those players have made an impact on their teams?

                I know that the Combine assembles aggregate numbers to measure the players athleticism which is nice but the combine numbers have missed on players that did not have favorable numbers but have had great success on the field of play.

                Jerry Rice and Emmitt Smith are a couple of players that come to mind that didn’t impress with their combine numbers that are not only HOF players but considered the best at their positions.

      2. Once you take Lawson out and peg Ogbah back to 65.58, it really shows this draft class doesn’t appear to have a lot of elite explosiveness in it in terms of edge rushers.

        1. I haven’t gone and compared to last year and I only rated this years ‘top’ DL prospects but according to Pat Kirwan last year out of the 330 combine participants at all positions only 24 players scored 70 or higher. We don’t know if Lawson or Buckner or Reed make the list but It’s possible there is at least 5 DL that have a score of 70 or higher. Relatively given the total number from last year it doesn’t sound too low. Probably about average.

              1. That won’t help his explosiveness number as per Kirwan’s formula, though I have seen a number of variants on explosion scores, some of which include the 10 yard split.

                I’ll have to have a dig around again because there was one I saw last year that also included a factoring of weight/ size into the explosiveness, so it wasn’t skewed towards lighter guys that can jump.

              2. You’re thinking of the Lower Explosion formula that uses: (Vert+3.5)(Broad) * (Weight/Height) / 3000

    3. CFC,
      The are no run away defensive players like in past drafts such as Jadeveon Clowney or Aaron Donald, but there are some very quality defense players in this draft that could provide some immediate help.
      I like the list you gave us.

      But I would put Oakman’ ex-teammate Andrew Billings over him as a possible late 1st or early 2nd rd pick. Wasn’t crazy about Oakman’ footwork and his length often got him more tangled up in traffic than helping him get around it.

      1. You’ve got one showing that a runaway player doesn’t always equate to success and another showing it does. It just goes to show how diffucult of a job that scouts have when it comes to judging potential NFL talent.

        1. Mid,
          I assume you are referring to Clowney. He has been fighting injuries and a nagging foot injury kept him from playing in Houston’ playoff game.

          When healthy he has shown flashes – so his story is far from over. Staying healthy has been his albatross thus far.

          1. He also exuberantly celebreated his first sack when his team was getting pummeled and left the team when they ruled him out shortly before the playoff game against the Chiefs which did not sit well with the coaching staff.

            1. Mid,
              Never condoned Clowney’ foolishness, just bringing up the fact that he has not stayed healthy enough over the last two years to show his value to the team.

      2. The explosion factor is another tool for helping you decide between players that you see similar skill sets in. If everything else is equal you can go to a formula like the one used above to help single out one over the others.

      1. I’m jumping out on the left field defensive lineman pick that inevitably happens each draft. There’s always one guy that some team like Miami picks up that everyone goes WTF?! and Judon is this years guy.

        1. Like the Niners and Pinion.
          Judon dominated Div II tackles. I agree with Hightop and would only take him later.

    1. I don’t see why so many people want Irvin.

      There plenty of guys you can pick up that will give you the 5 or 6 sacks a year he does. He is not even as productive as Ahmad Brooks and will command even more money. Obviously the niners have the money but just because they have it doesn’t mean they shouldn’t try to get decent value.

  7. Barrows sees it as I do, namely that the 49ers will primarily use free agency for offense and the draft for defense, although I still think they might try to get a big name for the front seven in free agency. According to Barrows, based on the scuttlebutt at the scouting combine, the 49ers might be targeting:

    Guard – Kelechi Osemele. He might be too expensive so he names Brooks, Incognito, Foster and Sweezy as alternates. If Osemele is too expensive, why not keep Boone, who can play all positions except center at a high level?

    WR – Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones. Draft class is weak at WR relative to the last two years.

    CB – Sean Smith or Trumaine Johnson or Janoris Jenkins. Grant might get his wish. Baalke has picked up a CB in FA the last few years.

    RB – Doug Martin of the Buccaneers. He ran the ball 288 times last season and rushed for 1402 yards. Barrows wonders if Martin would want to share carries with Hyde. Last year for the Eagles, Murray had 193 carries and Ryan Mathews 106 carries.

    http://www.sacbee.com/sports/nfl/san-francisco-49ers/article63161182.html

  8. Matt Maiocco has an article on CK and the 49ers. Here is his take on a number of items I’ve seen discussed on this blog over the last couple of days.

    1) The current price tag to the 49ers for 2016 is much more likely to be $14.3 million and not just the base salary of $11.9 million. The $14.3 million includes $2 million in per-game roster bonuses and a $400K workout bonus. These are likely to be earned.

    2) “The 49ers are in no hurry to act, which is why they have not responded to the request to give Kaepernick the ability to talk to teams that might be interested in his services. The 49ers can sit tight and not do a thing with Kaepernick until they figure out their course of action in free agency. After all, the 49ers can determine whether they go after a free-agent quarterback, such as Robert Griffin or Sam Bradford, in the early stages of free agency. Then, they can try to deal Kaepernick to the highest bidder or simply set him free -– assuming Kaepernick waives the 49ers of any financial responsibility. ”

    And here’s the kicker:

    “After all, it seems Kaepernick wants out from his 49ers’ contract more than he’s intent on collecting any more of their money.”

    3) “It’s difficult to believe Kaepernick truly fits into the team’s plan because the 49ers clearly do not fit into his plan. The aura surrounding him in the locker room last year was not positive. Now, after formally requesting a change of scenery, there is no going back.”

    4) “There is no question Kaepernick is attractive to multiple teams. The Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns have long been viewed as logical landing spots. The Denver Broncos, New York Jets and Los Angeles Rams could also be interested.”

    http://www.csnbayarea.com/49ers/no-turning-back-49ers-kaepernick-destined-part-ways

    1. 3) “the aura surrounding Kap in the locker room last season was not positive” This statement is ABSOLUTE FACT. Blaine Gabbert won over his teammates nearly instantaneously, because he made an effort to reach out to his teammates. Say what you will about Blaine’s skills as a QB, it’s clear that he has the leadership skills that the position demands. Colin……not so much. He is seen as “aloof” and he is a bit of an introverted person. Not a bad seed by any means. But not exactly a guy teammates rally around.

      1. Baalke and Chip really like the value of selecting CONNOR COOK in round 2. I expect them to go BPA on the defensive side in round one.

        1. No, they need either 2 defenders or a pass rusher and O lineman with their first 2 picks. Cook has a red flag. Team mates did not think enough of him to select him as a team leader.

          1. Anyone who knows Cook and the situation at Mich, knows the “red flag” is imaginary. Cook was in fact, the de facto leader of the team.

  9. BTW, I’m not really feeling your player comparisons Grant. Then again, I think it’s a pointless exercise, and never very accurate. Too many variables.

  10. I really like the comparisons but you really got me with the Ogbah\Thomas comparison! To me Ogbah reminds me of Tamba Hali and Devon Cajuste to Kelvin Benjamin.

    Tamba Hali(2006)

    Height: 6-3
    Weight:275
    Arm length: N\A
    40 time:4.87
    10 yard split:N|A
    Vertical jump:30
    Broad jump:8’10”
    20 yard shuttle:4.31
    3 cone drill:7.28

    Kelvin Benjamin(2014)

    Height: 6’5
    Weight: 240
    Arm length: 34 7\8″
    Hand: 10 1\4″
    40 yard dash: 4.61
    10 yard split: N\A
    Bench reps: 13
    Vertical jump: 32.5″
    Broad jump: 119″
    20 yard shuttle: 4.39
    3 cone drill: 7.33

  11. Seb, how are you holding up with this Kaepernicks saga? I know there’s a lot of resentment in you, because of what’s going on with Kaepernick and the 49ers. You’ll soon find a peace of mind once its all over and Kaepernick has moved on to resurrect his career one more time with another NFL team..

    1. Jam, I am resigned and will move on. Now I am thinking about the draft after the combine, and am wondering if Baalke can attract some elite FAs.

        1. Since they need to draft a QB, I am thinking that Hogan, Brissett or Adams will be available later on. I think Goff and Wentz will be gone before pick number 7.
          Hope they stay away from Cook.

          1. Oh, I forgot Dak Prescott. He is also an attractive QB with good numbers. Niners should roll with Gabbert and develop the draft choice. Hope he falls to the 4th round.

            1. Completely good with this Seb. I like Prescott, and Gabb can hold down the fort for a season or two. Hogan is another guy I like if he comes in the 3rd or lower, but I could see someone maybe reaching for him in the late 2nd of Cooks gone.

              If we roll with Gabbert though I just wonder how healthy he could stay with a porous O-line and offense that often exposes the QB. It could be worth bringing in a guy like RG to compete, if he comes cheap of course.

              1. Leo, maybe the best bet is to grab Stanley with the 7th, so any of the QBs can actually have a second or two to pass.

            2. I like Vernon Adams in the 5th, and Dak Prescott in the 4th….let’s get this QB thing straightened out keep the keepers, and throw back the rest

              1. Kelly is staying away from little people he said, he like’s big people that beats up on little people. :) That’s why forget about Vernon Adams he’s small for a Qb at 5’10 and Kelly doesn’t care if this guy is fast.

            1. Anyone questioning Connor Cook’s talent, and intangibles, take a look at this:

              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYisIEt_FVU

              Yes, he’s uber confident. I don’t care. As a matter of fact, I kind of like it. A Connor Cook in the 2nd round is GREAT value! Bill Polian, Steve Mariucci, Charles Davis, and others are very high on the Big Ten QB!

              1. Lets, see, Cook only completed 56% of his passes so they say he is inaccurate. Scouts question his field demeanor and leadership during adversity. Since the Niners will be struggling, that means every game.
                Hmm, he hurt his shoulder, so posters will probably rip him like they did Kaep when he struggles to make those throws in tight windows.

              2. Seb, I’ve got COOK at #40 on my big board (top 100), which puts him right in line with the 49ers first pick (#37) in round 2. I don’t have KEVIN HOGAN on my board.

                Are you really telling me Kevin Hogan is higher on your draft board than Conner Cook?

              3. Cook choked against my Huskers this during his last season. Nuff said.

              4. Here it is again Seb. These are all guys who’s opinions I respect. I suggest you look at Connor’s tape. Full games, not highlight reels.

              5. All I know is that CONNOR COOK is a far better prospect than Kevin Hogan. Go back and watch his tape VS Stanford. Cook dissected the Cardinals like a surgeon. The completion % doesn’t look impressive on the surface, but when you factor in how many more time Cook was asked to make passes in tight windows, and deed up the sideline, it makes sense. You want a QB who can “throw players open”, Cook is one of them. Plus, he’s just a tough guy. Plays hurt. Never backs down. Has the ability to pick up yards with his feet.

                Like Mooch (Mariucci) says: 23-2 in the big ten “are you kidding me”. Charles Davis: “34-5 speaks volumes about what a guy can do, his talent speaks for itself”.

              6. Maybe Cook did better with a better team. However, maybe you should watch the MS-Nebraska game and then tell me that Cook is an elite QB.

              1. Anyone who thinks Hogan will be a better pro QB than Cook is seriously challenged to define what an NFL QB is.

                IN OUR VIEW: Cook isn’t without flaw, but he shows a number of reasons to be encouraged about his potential in the NFL. Cook has the physical traits ideally suited for the pro game with tape that shows off a number of NFL throws.

                –Dane Brugler & Rob Rang (12/8/15)

                ESPN analyst and 2015 Pro Football Hall of Fame inductee Bill Polian: “They’re going to see a guy that makes good decisions, that’s accurate with the football, that can drive the ball. The thing I like best about him was the drive at the end of the Iowa game, the (Big Ten) Championship Game, when he’s obviously playing hurt, and then a year ago against Baylor in the (Cotton Bowl) game, where he went right out there, head-to-head, that was (Sandy) Koufax and (Don) Drysdale going head-to-head, Baylor would score, back he would come. It didn’t faze him one iota. So you like that competitiveness and you like obviously the preparation. He’s gotta be well prepared in order to do that. He’s a guy, again, I think people aren’t talking a lot about him, but they will hear a lot about him come the fall.”

                NFL Network analyst Charles Davis: “I saw one of those Big Ten Championships, the Ohio State game, and he did some things in that game that we really hadn’t seen. Remember the options that he ran, picked up first downs with his legs, made winning plays down the stretch. That was a game where they just beat them into submission essentially, that was a true pound-green-pound game.

                “But he kept blossoming as a player. And I know there’s all this stuff swirling around, he wasn’t elected captain, it was this. Thirty-four and five (record as starting quarterback at Michigan State) speaks volumes about what a guy can do, what his capabilities are, and he’s a guy that’s firmly in the conversation of being a first-round quarterback. It’s a big week for him to talk to the scouts and to the coaches and the teams, but all in all his talent speaks for himself.

                “And the last thing I’ll say about him, that he didn’t get enough credit for, I think is toughness. Because that shoulder injury that had him miss Ohio State this year, he came right back and continued to play. He may not have been 100%, but he was good enough to win another Big Ten title. So I think they’ve got to play up that toughness aspect with him because he’s got it.”

                Sirius XM NFL analyst Jim Miller: “Well, for me personally, I’m a big fan of Connor Cook. A lot of people have him going in the second round; I think he works his way into the first. He’s a big, strong-armed quarterback, comes with a pro-style offense, well coached at Michigan State. He can get in and out of plays in terms of checks. And he grows. He comes with a lot of wins, a lot of experience, and for me, he’s even played hurt. So I think coaches do look to see if guys are tough guys, and I think Connor Cook is one of those guys. To me, with all the other quarterbacks, there’s probably potentially three to four quarterbacks that could go in the first round, and I think Connor Cook is one of them.”

                ESPN analyst Todd McShay: “I think the best decision he made was to come back to school for another year. I can’t stress it enough to all of these quarterbacks that are looking at maybe leaving after their junior year. He became more of a student of the game, you could tell just watching his eyes and progressions, he was seeing things faster. He was throwing to spots and anticipating throws. I thought he made a significant improvement from his junior year to his senior year.

                “I think he and Kevin Hogan from Stanford are the only two guys that if forced into playing in the NFL next year would be mentally ready to do so. So it speaks to the development that he went through. I thought he was inconsistent in his junior year; (he) showed flashes, but a lot more consistent this past year. I just think this one last year in college really helped him and prepared him, whether he’s forced to start a game or two his rookie year, or just serve as a back-up. But I think he’ll be more prepared.”

              2. 49, highlight reels make any player look like the second coming of Joe Montana, but I watched CC in games when he hung his head and did not shine. If I strung together a lowlight reel, you would expect him to be flipping burgers.

              3. Well now I know you didn’t watch the video Seb, it wasn’t a “highlight reel”.

                Get real. I don’t watch “highlight reels”. I watch tape of full games. Nobody who wants to be taken serious as an NFL talent evaluator simply watches highlight reels.

              4. Of course I watched it, and I noticed that a 56% completion QB only threw TDs. To me, that is a highlight reel. Too bad they did not show why scouts said that he had leadership problems on the field, to be more fair and balanced. That was a puff piece.

              5. Like I said before, the Niners need those 2 first picks to get O line help and a pass rusher. If they do not improve the O line, the second coming of Joe Montana will not help.

            2. None of this Qbs Hogan or Cook are going to get drafted by the 49ers. The 49ers are drafting a QB in the 1st Rd. Either with their own #7 pick or they’ll make a moved and trade Kaepernick and #7 pick to moved up and get their franchise Qb. Carson Wentz or Gared Goff. If not there’s always the talented Paxton Lynch who might surprise a lot once he gets in the NFL.

              1. Sorry, Jam, but Goff will probably go to the Browns and the Rams will trade their first and second to move up and grab Wentz, since they have 2 second round picks and are desperate for a decent QB. Then if that fails, Cowboys need a QB since Romo just got a plate installed in his shoulder, and Flacco with his 2 ligament tears may not come back til midseason, so the Ravens need a QB.
                4 QBs may be gone before the Niners pick.

  12. Just heard on NFL network that the NFL is looking to eliminate the chop block rule.

    From Bleacher Report:

    “Most chop blocks—which constitute one player blocking a defender low while a second player blocks the defender above his waist—are already illegal.

    However, there are exceptions, which Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk outlined last year, writing, “First, two players initially aligned next to each other on the line of scrimmage may do it. Second, two players not initially aligned next to each other may do it if the flow of the play is toward the block.”

    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2620684-nfl-reportedly-considering-eliminating-chop-block-rule

    OL, Geoff Schwartz tweeted the following:

    ✔ ‎‎@geoffschwartz

    @wingoz @markschlereth yep. They are getting rid of the legal chop block. Running game… Bye bye

    This should help out 3-4 DL.

    1. It’s so obviously a Baalke move that you can pretty much just write it in the book the only question becomes at what point in round two does he trade back in to get him?

    2. I could live with Cook if he fell to the bottom of the second and they traded up to take him. He’s taking a lot of heat for the accuracy and leadership questions, but he was an unquestioned first rounder if he had come out his Jr.year. There is something there to work with, but the value only exists if he falls.

      1. If Cook is as good as they say he is, the Rams, Eagles, Cowboys, Browns, and even the Ravens with Flacco’s injuries would grab him in a heartbeat. Why is he not mentioned with Goff and Wentz?

        1. Seb, he doesn’t come without flaws. He’s a late 1st, early 2nd round guy at the moment. There are enough question marks to drop him into the back end of round 1, or even mid-round 2, from the scouts I have listened to. The Rams aren’t likely going to reach for a guy at #15, when he ranks 35-50 on their board. The Browns like Wentz, a lot. Now, Baalke may have to move up in round 2, if the Cowboys are don’t take a QB in round 1.

          Trust me, Cook has all the tools. I get the feeling Chip is high on him as well!

          1. They said JR had all the tools, and he became a tool.
            Do not think for a moment that teams will not try to rattle Cook to get him off his game. He may collapse like a house of cards.

          2. Seb, he doesn’t come without flaws.

            Nope, just a low completion percentage, questions about his demeanor and overall leadership, choking against the Huskers, and evidence showing he doesn’t those playing him better but instead needs those around him to be better. Other than all of that, yeah no flaws.

            1. Here is what one PROMINENTNFC scout had to say about Cook’s ability to make those around him better:

              On the field, can Connor Cook take it and put it on his shoulders?” an NFC scout said. “Yeah, against Baylor he did last year. Can he make an average team pretty decent? Yeah, because I’ve got to be honest with you, that’s an average football team. That is not the fourth-best team in the country.”

            2. CONNOR COOK – FBS Scouting Report:

              College: Michigan State
              Class: 2016
              Hometown: Hinckley, OH
              Height: 6’4″
              Weight: 220
              Position: Quarterback
              Position Ranking: 4
              40 Time: 4.79
              Vert: 33″
              Broad Jump: 9’5″

              STRENGTHS

              – Excellent accuracy in the pocket at short and medium distances.
              – Experience in a pro style offense and has excellent pocket presence.
              – Lightning quick release.
              – Shows toughness, willingness to play hurt.
              – Good field vision and knows how to make his reads.
              – Prototypical quarterback frame and strong arm.
              – Has enough mobility to avoid rushers and roll out and keep the play going.

              WEAKNESSES

              – Needs to work on being consistent with his deep ball accuracy.
              – Needs to improve on his footwork.

              CONNOR COOK’S DRAFT PROJECTION

              Late First – Second Round

              1. OMG, he is projected late first, early second! Stop the presses! It is set in stone!
                I wonder how many late first projections have lasted until the third? Fourth?

            3. MWD,

              I didn’t see the game against your Huskers, but here are Cook’s stats from that game: 23/37, 335 YDS, 9.1 AVG, 4 TD, 1 INT, 89.5 Total QBR

              Hard to knock a guy with those numbers.

    1. Very much doubt Vernon Adams goes that early. A lot of buzz at the combine that he looks like a classic undrafted free agent. He could surprise in the pros, but Adams doesn’t look, or throw, like a pro QB. Ran a 4.83, much slower than expected, at the combine: “Marginal field vision, below average anticipation outside of single read route combos.”

      SOURCES TELL US “I wouldn’t draft him but I watched him at Eastern Washington and Oregon, and he’s got something to him as a competitor. I would have no problem bringing him into camp and seeing what happens.” — NFC West area scout

      1. Not to mention his throwing motion. “Adams has a long wind up and slightly below 3/4 release. That’s fatal for a QB of his stature!”

          1. Yah, because playing in the East West Shrine game is comparable to the NFL. lol. Don’t take my word for it. Here is the buzz in scoutsville:

            CBS SPORTS: Vernon Adams – Undersized with a small frame and looks tiny in the pocket compared to other prospects. Many of his passing yards came on simple screens and quick flair routes. Lacks consistent accuracy and velocity. Inconsistent on the deep pass.

            IN OUR VIEW: Adams’ low launch point is a major issue and his frail frame will likely keep him from being drafted. He is a good passer in practice, but Adams just isn’t built for NFL action.

            –Rob Rang and Dane Brugler (2/19/16)

            Here is another scouts view on Adams / Wilson comparison: I see the Russell Wilson comparison getting thrown around a lot and it makes quite a bit of sense to me in some aspects. Both quarterbacks have excellent escapability paired with very calculated approaches to their passing game. However, Wilson is a much more physically gifted player than Adams, possessing much better athletic ability, a stronger build and a bigger arm. Adams is Russell Wilson, stylistically, in Johnny Manziel’s body. He is a bit lighter with a weaker arm and less straight line speed, but certainly isn’t the reckless player Manziel was at Texas A&M.

      2. yeah, 49 ..

        I shoulda added …. .. or later ..
        to the 4 round … but ..

        I just gotta feelin’ … he’ll be wearin’ the
        Crimson n Gold this summer …

    2. I agree with PFF don’t sleep on this guy- the hilltopper -http://www.rotoworld.com/recent/cfb/133948/brandon-doughty

  13. Boobie Dixon just got released. (Not saying grab him)

    I always though he’d be better off in a zone scheme. I remember he needed to become a more decisive runner. Dance less. I don’t know if he fixed that in Buffalo.

        1. Naw, Chip said he was INTRIGUED by Hayne, and I think Chip will be smart enough to utilize him properly. I think Hayne is light years better than Boobie as a punt returner. Hayne has an ability to make the first tackler miss. Boobie just tries to run over the tackler.

  14. Had a chance to finally see the combine. One thing that stood out t o me was mechanics and quick release or Wentz and Goff. CK nees to be moved, we know that. If you get through that aspect. Why nopt make a run at one of the top 2 QBs. Yes we have a lot of holes to fill, but if one of those guys turns out to be at a “Tannyhill-esq” level or above :), would that not be a better option for us while we rebuild the team?

    FA risky but could provide immediate plub and play, R. Incognito and P. Harvin. Perhaps these fools can get signed to a 1-2 year deal and have their head on straight.

    1. Agreed. I thought Goff looked fantastic. However, I think Cook has the quickest release in the draft. Here is another NFC Scout quote concerning COOK:

      “On the field, can Connor Cook take it and put it on his shoulders?” an NFC scout said. “Yeah, against Baylor he did last year. Can he make an average team pretty decent? Yeah, because I’ve got to be honest with you, that’s an average football team. That is not the fourth-best team in the country.”

      Here it is boys and girls: CHIP KELLY, 49ERS TARGETING MICHIGAN STATE QB, CONNOR COOK

      http://www.oregonlive.com/nfl/index.ssf/2016/03/49ers_targeting_spartans_qb_co.html

  15. So, Mario Williams was released by the Bills. Word is that he was unhappy with Rex’s defensive scheme. Mario wanted to play OLB in their 3-4 scheme and Rex had him play DE. We need OLB help and discussions above indicate that the OLB draft prospects are not nearly as deep as defensive line prospects. He seems to be “difficult”, but …….

    Tamba Hali might be a possibility and there’s also talk that Ware might become available.

      1. I think the 49ers should have the cap space to afford one of them.

        Hali would be an excellent short term addition.

        1. If you could only take one, would you take one of the high-priced OLBs available or one of the high-priced defensive lineman (Jackson, Wilkerson, etc.)?

        2. Hali just came off one of his best seasons Scooter, so I doubt he’s in the range that wills Baalke and Jed to open the wallet.

          1. No he didn’t. He was good, but his production is on the decline and he will turn 33 during the season. I would be shocked if he gets a huge contract. I think 2 years $12M would be plenty enough to get him (he took a 1 year $6M extension last year), and he’d be a great addition to a young D.

            1. Sorry Scooter, but I’m going to believe what other sites have said in regards to Hali.

              1. Believe what you want. But I fail to see how 6 sacks followed by 6.5 sacks for a player that averaged 11 sacks a year the previous 5 seasons is anything but a decline in production.

                And yes, I am aware he graded well on PFF. But he has done so for many years. This was not one of his best seasons. It was another good season for a player that is still able generate pressure but gets to the QB to finish the job less than he used to. And was paid $6M last season. Hard to believe he will get a massive pay rise at his age.

              2. From NFL.com:

                20. Tamba Hali, Kansas City Chiefs pass rusher: It’s rare to see a player take a pay cut like Hali, then enjoy one of his best seasons. The Chiefs might not be able to afford him this time around.

                He’s ranked as the 20th best free agent and is coming off one of his best seasons. He’s going to get a rich deal. Also, stop getting up up on sack numbers.

              3. Fair enough. A better argument would be PFF who rank him the 4th best FA available. Maybe you are correct. We will see what he gets.

              4. I tried to do that, but the page kept refusing to load, so I went with the one I could get to load.

      2. What are you suggesting that we do about the edge rusher problem? DL seems deep in the draft and edge rusher seems weak unless we dedicate the #7 pick to that position.

        1. Not Mid, but my preference would be to use the first round pick on an edge player if they don’t sign a big name in FA. Lawson, Spence or Ogbah.

          I agree with the scuttlebutt that Cook in round 2 is better value than Goff or Wentz at 7. But I think Hogan in round 3 or 4 is better value again (though I think Cook is a better prospect). Either way, I am fine with the 49ers not taking a QB in round 1.

          1. Gradient vs Russian Roulette

            Gradient – the higher the draft pick, the faster/bigger/stronger/better film etc. the prospect has.

            Russian Roulette – Does the player have (or lack) fundamental characteristics that determine if he can play the position at all.

            Most positions in the first three rounds lean heavily Gradient, with a modest Russian Roulette risk. Exceptions are players with injuries, off field problems, or combine stars with little good film.

            The Quarterback position seems to be the most “Russian Roulette” of all the draft choices. He can have all the good physical traits, good college productivity, smart as a whip, and still flop.

            This makes it harder to determine if a QB “over drafted.” If there was a magic wand that could give me a player for five years that was the 16th best in the NFL, he’s worth a top ten pick.

            To me the situation is a little more binary. He’s worth the risk, or he isn’t.

            Goff could star in this league. Or he could break before his 23rd birthday.

            Wentz is smart guy with has physical gifts. There are tons of guys like that who flopped.

          2. If Goff or Wentz both get taken in the top 6, the 49ers will get a fantastic player.

            Assuming Tunsil’s gone…. one of Buckner, Bosa, Jack, or Ramsey will be at seven. I’d be happy with any one of those guys.

            And if a QB falls to 7 the 49ers don’t covet, the trade back offers will also be fantastic.

        2. Drafting Buckner could help OLB corps that we have already Cubus. As I have said before, I think Baalke and Jed are comfortable with who is currently on the roster for ROLB. I’d like them to address the edge rusher need, but I think it’s going to addressed in a similar fashion that the need for a #1 CB has been – with nothing.
          Cook makes Alex Smith look like Joe Montana Scooter. In the games that I watched with him, he needed everything (AND I MEAN EVERYTHING) humming around him in order to succeed. He doesn’t have the ability to carry a team if he needs to.

          1. Have to agree with Scooter on this Mid. Too much hyperbole involved in that description. I understand the concern about leadership, but Cook went into this season as one of the top rated players based on his Jr. year. His Sr. year was similar and they went to the playoff, so I would disagree that he’s as bad as you say he is.

            1. That list is nothing but hyperbole. I recall the same list having Bradford, Locker, and a guy named Brohm at the top of it during their college football tenure.
              We’ll just have to disagree then. Every game that I watched of him convinced me that he’s over-hyped and clearly over valued to the point that it’s a nauseating joke. Cook is a third rounder at best.

              1. When he was being discussed as one of the top QBs in the draft and first round prospect, I agree he was over valued. But he does a lot of good things. He needs to learn to set his feet more consistently and he will likely learn the hard way that he can’t throw into some of the tight windows he threw into in college, but he’s got a lot to work with.

                For me it’s really the leadership/ personality concerns that are of greatest concern, but there appears to be as many people saying it’s a non issue as there are citing concerns in that regard. If that checks out fine then I think he’s good value in the second.

              2. One of the biggest areas of concern for me besides his low completion percentage is how he loses his composure under pressure.

          2. Kirwans combine report on Cook: “Connor Cook, Michigan State
            Connor had the best drops and transitions of anyone in the QB group here at the Combine. In fact, I would say they were almost impeccable. That makes sense because of this whole group, he probably has the most experience in a pro-style offense. He’s a natural thrower, but he didn’t really let it rip in terms of showing his arm strength in my opinion. I think he’s still recovering from his shoulder injury, so it was probably a smart move, but his arm is stronger than he showed on Saturday.”

              1. You’re right, you probably know better then most of the people employed to do this for a living.

              2. Yup, MW is more astute than the experts who got paid to declare that Jamarcus Russel was the best player in the draft.

      1. Maybe Chip is thinking of putting together a group of “ironic, sarcastic, young, Jewish” guys who write about sports.

    1. It’s one possible outcome. Colin doesn’t have the power to veto staying with the 49ers. He does have the option to veto renegotiating his contract. It’s an interesting situation.

      1. HTW

        There’s no need for him to redo his contract from the team side. Surely he wants it torn up, but he has no leverage.

        1. Then there is no problem for the 49ers, and Colin will earn up to $14.3M in 2016. Thats not a bad gig for anyone with his NFL record. Or someone will make an offer that can’t be refused. Certainly all Colin can do, if he doesn’t like such an offer, is decline to renegotiate.

          1. No team would want to renegotiate out of this contract. It is below market value for a good QB. If it’s apparent he’s a backup, the team will tear up the contract.

            1. We can move on. There is nothing to post about. Colin will fulfill his contract for 2016 and earn about $14.3M either with the 49ers or another team. Those who want to see him begging for crusts of bread on the street will have to wait at least one more year, but even then, I wouldn’t expect them to be fully satisfied by Colin’s status in life.

              If the 49ers wind up with an extra first round pick for 2016 I will be impressed.

      2. What it costs to test Franchise a QB

        Cousins in 2016: $20M
        Plays poorly: $5M in 2017
        Plays well: $24M+, starting in 2017

        Kaep in 2016: $12M
        Plays poorly: $5M in 2017
        Plays well: Never > $20 before 2021

        49ers immediately save $8M. If both QBs falter, that’s the entire savings. If QB excels, savings from 2017 thru 2020 are, on average, $8M per year for those four years.

        That means that the team that acquires Kaep, whether it’s the 49ers retaining him or a new team, stands to test a QB at an $8M discount, while potentially saving $40M over the life of the contract moving forward, with no requirement to guarantee the player a single dollar at any time therein.

          1. Cubus

            Obviously, but the cost to get into the season is $11.9M for Kaep, $20M for Cousins, and now $26M for Bradford.

            Are we really somehow arguing that a team wouldn’t want to try it with Kaep, who is 4-2 in the playoffs and an unparalleled physical specimen, at $11.9M, given that Cousins and Bradford cost $8-14M more just to even test it?

            Bradford just signed for 2 years at $36M w $26M guaranteed.

            1. Actually, I really haven’t participated (argued) in this discussion. I really don’t know what will happen with Kap. In my post above, Maiocco seems to believe as you do that there will be suitors for Kap. But I do think that $14.3 million is some serious coin and I don’t think teams will be flippant about spending it on Kap. But who knows. Every year in FA it seems like something happens that boggles the mind.

              1. There are those who think the 49ers will also get a first round choice in the 2016 draft for Colin. Colin’s contract is a real gold mine.

            2. Wow. Bradford signs for an average $18 million per year with $26 million guaranteed. You could be right, Sil. Maybe $12 to $14 million is chump change in the NFL now.

              1. Just read another blurb that says there is another $4 million available in incentives on top of the $36 million.

                I hope Baalke doesn’t suffer from sticker shock like I am; otherwise we’re only going to be signing middling free agents.

                PFT says that Fitzpatrick and Osweiler are the only semi-viable FA QBs (I guess they’re not including Griffin). Looks like Kap could indeed have a market and that the $11.9 to $14.3 million might not be that big a deal to another team. You’re starting to convince me, Sil.

  16. Baalke should get of his butt and sign Olivier Vernon ASAP…… @25 yrs old, with 25.5 sacks over the past three seasons

    “Vernon (6 foot 2, 275 pounds) played most of the time rushing off the right edge in a two-point stance. Like Aldon Smith or Ahmad Brooks, he would rarely be asked to drop into coverage, so it’s not too much of a projection to envision him at outside linebacker in the 49ers’ 3-4 scheme.”

  17. I’ve pointed this out before, but after watching the highlight reel on Lawson, all I can get from it is how impressed I am with his fellow D-lineman, #98 Boyd. He fights a double-team on the majority of plays and still manages to create pressure.

    Anybody know what round he’s projected to be drafted?

  18. Although neither is a PON choice I have to admit I would love to have Miles Killebrew and Karl Joseph on the 49ers squad- both hard nosed knock the snot out of you football players matched with Tartt -lord have mercy!

  19. NFL BREAKING NEWS:

    SAM BRADFORD / Philadelphia Eagles agree to 2 year contract! Stay tuned for contract details.

      1. Wow… well that escalated quickly.

        I’m starting to agree with a lot of these commentators, that Kap stays and attempts to salvage his career and prove his worth.

        Or with Bradford out it increases Kaps trade value with an even more limited QB market.

        very interesting

        1. The day to day in that job is a drag. I’ve still got great knees and hips. My collar bones are all intact too.

        1. I have to say I am relieved he’s off the market. The prospect of Sam Bradford playing for the Niners didn’t exactly inspire me.

    1. The Seb’s evaluation of Colin Kaepernick seems to be in line with this evaluation, and Chip’s evaluation of Colin’s contract is also looking good. What will the market pay for Colin? Should the 49ers be in the mix? What fun to be having after the Tomsula Season!

    1. I hope Seb reads Lynch’s article, and begins to realize Kap is his own worst enemy. There isn’t a vast campaign to tarnish Kap’s image. The “leaks” are, in fact, true, and public knowledge to anyone close to the team.

      1. Generally, what goes on in the locker room, stays in the locker room.
        Lisa outing Draymond was unseemly, and smacked of eavesdropping. leaking locker room vibes is bad for the team cameraderie, and very bad for a team trying to win.
        Bill Walsh had a mantra- Never slam a team mate. Niner front office just thinks leaks are business as usual.
        In the end, they will reap what they sow.

  20. I have a much more important sports question than any of this football stuff.

    When does womens beach volley ball competition honor the original Greek Olympics and go totally nude?

    1. When the men also compete in the buff and use the same deadly tactics in the original Greek Olympics.

  21. QB Situation Solved

    Kaep’s contract is 11% fully guaranteed. Bradford’s, 61% fully guaranteed. 49ers have all the leverage in trade talks.

    49ers should give Kaep a new contract for 2 years, for $14M, 100% guaranteed.

    Get Gabbert the same K, so QB competition is even and team and each player is protected in 2017.

    That’s value for everyone.

    Kaepernick gets to FA in 2 years (3 years earlier than currently) and has a very attractive contract for trading immediately. Gabbert makes $7M this year (instead of $2M) to be signed through 2017, in case he wins the competition.

    This will make it much more likely that another team will trade for Kaep, that the competition in training camp will be fair, and that both Gabbert and the 49ers will feel protected through 2017 in the event Kaep is traded.

  22. And it would be significantly cheaper than paying Kaep on both the next 2 years on his current contract, approaching $31M.

  23. For the upcoming FA, here’s a little reminder from Maiocco:

    Matt Maiocco ✔ @MaioccoCSN

    @ArielEscoto1 At the right price, yes. They like signing players who’ve been cut because they don’t count against compensatory formula.

    1. I don’t think that will be of concern to them this year. I would be shocked if the 49ers don’t have a net inflow of FAs this off season, including some reasonably high priced ones, so highly doubt they will be eligible for any comp picks next year.

      1. No, no. Niners will not spend money just to spend money.
        Imagine, they could save 157 million dollars.
        Think what that would do to the bottom line.
        Why, they might be rewarded with the first pick of the draft

      2. Your comment made me realize that I didn’t really understand how compensatory picks work. After some research, it would seem that you are right. We have 12 FAs but the highest 2015 cap hit is Boldin at $6.9 million. If I understand correctly now, based on pure numbers, I suppose we could get a comp pick, but it most likely would be a very high round. All of our over $1 million FA losses would very likely be easily cancelled out by acquisitions.

        But I’m still not sure if I fully understand. If we were to sign a DL for $13 million and lose Boldin, then the team losing the DL would get a comp pick because of the large disparity. Is that right?

        1. Sort of. Boldin would not impact the team losing the DL unless they were the ones that signed him. For the 49ers, losing Boldin only impacts the comp formula if he signs elsewhere, and it will be his 2016 salary that factors into the formula, not what he earned in 2015.

          Also, vets signed for the vet minimum or close to the vet minimum typically don’t count against the comp pick formula.

          Basically, the 49ers really only have Boone, Williams and Boldin that will likely provide “credits” for the 49ers in terms of comp picks. But those guys will likely be cancelled out by incoming FA signings.

          1. Dumb example by me. Let’s use the other team as an example, since the odds seem very low that our top FA signing would have a lower salary than Boldin next year (assuming he is signed by another team). What if the team that loses the 13M DL has a maximum newly signed FA salary of 8M in 2016. Does that difference alone count towards a comp pick? Is it a combination of both numbers lost and numbers gained as well as salary differences? I’ve read a few articles but all they talk about is the pure numbers (i.e. losses need to be greater than gains in order to get comp picks).

            1. If a team loses one FA worth $13M a season and signed one FA worth $8M, they would still be considered to have a net loss and potentially receive a comp pick (value of which would be determined by the $5M net difference in contract value).

              That’s a simplified version and player performance during the season also plays some small part, but in a nutshell that is how it works.

            2. As an example of netting off, the 49ers lost two big money FA last year – Culliver and Iupati. Both signed for around $8M a season.

              The 49ers also signed one big money FA in Torrey Smith, also for around $8M a season. The gain of Smith will cancel out the loss of one of Iupati or Culliver, leaving only one of those losses as counting at least in part towards the 49ers comp picks.

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