Over/under: Predict the win totals of the Super Bowl contenders

Reno’s Atlantis Sports Book recently released the 2013 expected win totals for all 32 NFL teams. I’ve listed the expected win totals for the top-eight contenders, then I picked the “Over” or the “Under,” listed my win total prediction for each team and explained my reasoning. You’re more than welcome to make your own predictions in the comment section below.

Denver Broncos: Over/under 12 wins. GC’s pick: UNDER. 11-5. Why: Peyton Manning and Champ Bailey are getting old, and the front office didn’t replace Elvis Dumervil.

Green Bay Packers: Over/under 12 wins. GC’s pick: PUSH. 12-4. Why: Aaron Rodgers should be much more dangerous this season with the threat of the play-action pass. The Packers have had no running game the past few seasons.

San Francisco 49ers: Over/under 11.5 wins. GC’s pick: UNDER. 11-5, maybe 10-6. Why: A very difficult schedule and a questionable secondary. A lot rides on Justin Smith. How good will he be this season? He’s been the team’s MVP the past few seasons, but he turns 34 in September and he’s coming off an elbow surgery.

New England Patriots: Over/under 11.5 wins. GC’s pick: OVER. 12-4. Why: They play in a weak division and they have a relatively tame schedule. Their toughest games are Week 4 @ Atlanta, Week 6 vs. New Orleans and Week 16 @ Baltimore.

Houston Texans: Over/under 11 wins. GC’s pick: UNDER. 10-6. Why: They have a tough schedule and their quarterback, Matt Schaub, seems to be on the decline.

Seattle Seahawks: Over/under 11 wins: GC’s pick: OVER. 12-4. Why: They’re a young team that won 11 games last season, they have no glaring holes on their roster and they significantly improved their team over the offseason with players who should have a big impact right away – Percy Harvin, Cliff Avril, Michael Bennett and Antoine Winfield.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Over/under 10 wins: GC’s pick: PUSH. 10-6. Why: Ben Roethlisberger hasn’t played a full 16-game season since 2008. He can’t stay healthy, and the Steelers backup QBs – Bruce Gradkowski and Landry Jones – do not frighten defenses.

Baltimore Ravens: Over/under 9.5 wins: GC’s pick: OVER: 12-4. Why: Even though they lost seven starters from their defense this offseason, they actually improved the defense with the additions of Matt Elam, Arthur Brown and Elvis Dumervil.

 

Oakland Raiders: Over/under 5.5 wins: UNDER. 4-12, maybe 5-11. Why: The Raiders seem to have hauled in a quality draft class this offseason. The Raiders need about two more stellar draft hauls in a row before they become a winning team.