Prediction contest: Manningham and Crabtree

I want you to predict how many catches Mario Manningham will make next Sunday against the Panthers (0, 1, 2, 3, 4…), and how many catches he will make the rest of the regular season.

Whoever’s guesses are closest without going over Manningham’s actual totals will be the Poster of the Month at the end of the regular season.

Here’s the tie-breaker question: How many catches will Michael Crabtree make in the regular season?

  1. 3 catches next week for MM, 20 for the regular season…….I’m being optimistic when I say crab gets 35 but ima be safe and say crab gets 20 catches too and heats up in the postseason

  2. MM will have 4 catches next week against Panthers. 25 catches for the regular season.

    Crabtree will make 24 catches for the regular season.

  3. MM will have zero catches against the Panthers. I don’t think they will play him yet. I will guess 18 throughout the rest of the regular season.
    MC may not play more than 2 or three regular season games so I’ll guess 7 catches.

  4. Panthers D will step up and only allow two catches. Kap hasn’t played with Mario so it’s going to take some time for them to develop some chemistry. however, he will have a break put game against the rams at Holmes at Kap will have to rely on him so he ends the season with 30 catches. crabs is going to have 12catches in 5 games.

  5. I really do not care about catches, who the hell knows with Roman playbook each week, just hope Manningham and Crabs get to be where they need to be, CK improves his play and not just zero in on one receiver and by the end of the year, we kicked Hawks butt and win the division.

  6. Mario will have 5 catches for 32 yards and a nice block for a VD touchdown. He will finish the season with 36 catches. Crabtree will have 13 catches and will have 21 in the playoffs.

    1. Good point Jack, it is like the 7th game of the World Series, home team is down by 3 runs, base loaded, two outs, bottom of the ninth the batter is 2 for 22 in the series, however, he hits a grand slam, and they win the World Series, some stat nerd, will say he will horrible because he batted next to nothing.

    2. Fabulous article. Thanks for doing this research. This seems to suggest that NFL defenses are tougher to run against than pass against, and that to beat them with the pass you need really good receivers.

    3. I told Grant his statements about Gore could apply to pretty much every RB in the league. Many thanks for taking the time to bear that out Jack.

      1. Grant, if you “took away” explosive runs, shouldn’t you “take away” one yard TDs and 3rd/4th and ones where the D is stacked in the box? A TD or first down carry is a always successful outcome.

      1. I defined it as 10+, and did so based on this comment someone made yesterday regarding Gore, “His line opens up some big holes for him, so he occasionally pops a 10-15 yard run. Consistency is not there though. Take those runs away and he regularly averages under three yards a carry.”

        Murray isn’t among the top 10 backs in yards because he has only played in 6 of 9 games due to injury, but I threw him in there since we had the Cowboys vs 49ers discussion a couple days back.

        Going back to the game, “DeMarco Murray has averaged 4.70 yards per carry this year, but if you take out his game against the Rams he is only averaging 3.89.” ; )

      2. Jack

        Grant wins every argument because he changes rules and disregards reason. You can’t win.

        That said, I like that you’ve been writing more blog entries and hope you continue. It’s great to see an industrious effort paying off. I congratulate your success after establishing your own platform. If you can get the comments section going, I’ll join you over there gladly.

        Grant, like you, Jack is a know-it-all, but you could take a lesson from his analysis and improve your game. I hope you do. And stop pumping Romo. You’ll find you’ll never win when it matters.

      3. It’s already fixed. Just choose to comment anonamously and put your handle at the beginning of your comment.

        Looking at making some additional changes soon.

      4. >Barry Sanders amassed negative yardage statistics over his career (if you take away his positive yardage plays.)
        >Walter Payton’s record isn’t nearly as impressive when you discount all his TD runs and runs for 1st downs. The rest? mpff.
        > Gayle Sayres? Take away his injuries and ………..
        >Emmit Smith never had any 90+ yard TD runs.
        >Earl Campbell never won a Super Bowl ring.
        >Vince Lombardi was never awarded Sainthood by The Papacy.
        >Mike Ditka was never elected to Congress.
        >Brotha Tuna has never been offered a HC or GM position in the NFL (due to a vast conspiracy by other pelagic species; damn those Swordfish!).

      5. Great points Tuna,

        It is irrelevant stats, no other 49 beat writer. who are all seasoned, brings such a insignificant points over and over, no one brings it up, except here. Every NFL person in the knows that Frank Gore is a total work horse, and without him the Niners have no chance to win. No one like him in the NFL.

  7. Manningham.
    2 catches first game, and finish the regular season with 20-25.
    My reason: Although the team could use a #2 WR, they are not desperate for one. A trade would have been consummated last week if this was the case.

    The 49ers have done quite well with the current offensive players and scheme to the tune of 6-2 and showing themselves as a team on the rise.
    Manningham would be considered a luxury rather than a priority.

    I see Crabtree being the #2 upon his return and MM as the #3.
    Crabtree would likely be treated as a #2 when he returns and schemed to work himself back to his #1 position by the playoffs.

    If Crabtree can perform to about 80-90% of his 2012 ability by the playoffs this team will be hitting it’s stride at the perfect time.
    If MC is ready to play by the first game in December, I will guess 15-20 catches in the regular season with his best work to come in the playoffs.
    In the words of my buddy Hofer67: All Arrows Up!

    1. IF he plays he’ll have 4 rec for 40 yards.

      For the remaining season including the Panthers game he will have 36 receptions for 385 yards.

      Tiebreaker: 35

  8. Mario catches 3 against the Panthers, and finishes the season with 27….
    Mr. Crabs catches 15 for the regular season….

  9. So then, to be clear, the various Posters of the Month at the end of the regular season will be eligible for a run-off? Playoffs a separate category?
    Please, in the name of decency and good taste; No Swimsuit Competition!
    Just sayin’

    1. Have to assume that will be for Manningham, though Moody should be near a return too.

      Asomugha is running out of peripheral players to make way for guys being activated. Will he last…? Will Wright even be activated?

      1. Moore was for Manningham.
        Moody comes in for Stupar.
        Wright will be activated and that’s when Asomugha goes ba-bye…..

      2. If I’m not mistaken, the 49ers were granted a one week reprieve of Aldon Smith counting against their 53 man roster….

      3. Asomugah might be waived for Wright but maybe not. Aso is inactive every week so unless they plan to make Wright inactive they need to drop a player who is active every week. Then it comes down to whether it is worth keeping that player over Aso on the inactive list every week.

        I think they will put Patton on IR and then they still have some other options. With the ascension of Morris on ST’s and Moody coming back, they could drop Osgoode. Dobbs could be the odd man out in a crowded Dline depth chart all of a sudden. They could cut Bethel-Thompson and put him on the PS as the 3rd QB. Many different ways they could go including cutting Nnamdi, but I think they like him as insurance in the case of injury.

  10. No idea how he’ll go against the Panthers – I’ll go with 2 catches assuming he plays, but I expect he’ll be used sparingly.

    But for the last 8 games of the regular season I think he’ll average around 3 catches a game – so lets go with 24 catches on the season.

    As for Crabtree, I’ll go with 12 catches, assuming he gets activated. I still struggle to believe a guy coming back from a fully torn achilles in May will be back to full speed before the end of the regular season, new advances in medical science or no. So if he gets activated I think they’ll bring him along slowly, play him sparingly, with an eye to having him near 100% in January in time for the playoffs.

  11. Anyone else catch the show on Discovery last night? A world of difference between the two teams during practice. Easy to see why each team is where they are.

    1. Jack, I watched the special last night and it really made me feel bad for the Jags players. For Bradley and his OC, you could see it was a tough sell and that both were having a hard time getting their players focused on the game during meetings. It was also one of the worst pre-game speeches that I’ve ever heard – worse than some I heard in high school.

      1. I agree Space. Bradley seems like a nice guy, but all that rah rah stuff is a tough sell when you aren’t able to back it up with W’s.

        It came off like one team was out having a good time while the other was preparing to win.

    2. That is exactly what I told my Wife while we were watching it Jack. The Jag’s coaches seemed very subdued during practice and there seemed to be no energy,while the Niners coaches and players had some fire in their practices.
      I guess the death in the Family of the Jag’s head coach could have had something to do with it ?

    3. I did. And it reminded me of the Singletary years here. The “raa raa” coaching talks and attitude only go so far. This Jags team also reminded of a fraternity that piled into meetings hungover. They’re in sad shape.

  12. Going to be something to watch when Crabs, Boldin, MM, Davis on the field at the same time. Defenses should have fits trying to cover them and with the threat of the running game this offense might just get to where I think they should be – unstoppable. No more excuses at the WR position the talent will be there, now it will be up to CK to take the next step.

  13. I say three catches for mm against the panthers and thirty for the season.
    Crabtree will play 4-5 games so I’ll give him 22 catches

  14. Vs Panthers :
    Mario .. 4 catches / 89 yds +1 TD
    season : 28 catches

    Crabs : 1st game back .. 6 catches / 132 yds
    season: 28 catches

  15. Perfect timing that MM is coming back just when Kap is finally getting his foot healthy for the first time since the Green Bay game !
    I hope that both he and Crabs can get back to near what they were before their injuries.

  16. Manningham
    = 3 catches vs Panthers
    =17 catches remaining games
    =20 catches total for 2013 regular season

    =16 catches for 2013 regular season

  17. Grant. It’s a tough one to predict. Injuries of this magnitude can really go either way. But I’m going conservative:

    MC will have 1 catch (on 3 targets) but could find footing fast and may have as many as 17 catches on the season.

    But then again he may just have 12 catches for the regular season.

  18. 49er fans on this blog thinking that Manningham and Crabtree will have a significant impact down the stretch this season are fooling themselves – which I’ve been quilty of myself in the past, so I’m a hypocrite (sue me). Want to know how long it really takes a receiver a to come back from a torn Achilles? Ask Demarius Thomas in Denver. Crabtree isn’t a particularly fast receiver. He’s great because, like Kaep has said, “He gets open,” but he doesn’t get open by out-running DBs. Crabtree gets open with his route running and his cuts. Those cuts are what tore Crabtree’s Achilles to begin with. Crabtree will come back, but it’ll be easy for DBs to cover him in the playoffs. Seattle’s DBs will cover Crabtree like white on rice. Mario Manningham is coming off knee surgery, and while, interestingly enough, players are coming back from ACL surgery faster these days, Mario was a supplemental receiver who made a living catching passes on the edge of impossible. It takes a healthy body to pull off such miracles. Mario may continue to work the sidelines, but his production down the stretch, like Crabtree’s, will be very limited.

    And that leads me to my Greg Roman beef. I can appreciate, like the rest of the 49er Empire, Greg and Jim needing to string together several wins to even make a playoff push, so I’m at risk of putting the cart before the horse, but the 49ers won’t make any noise in the playoffs with their power run offense. It’s the same old Alex Smith argument, but now with Greg Roman inserted as the team’s demon. You simply can’t beat high-powered offenses like the Saints with a power run attack and a decent defense. You defense needs to be great, and we’re not great anymore.

    The 49ers have been feasting on mediocre to bad NFL teams these past several weeks with Gore, Bolden and Vernon. But good teams will shut all three of them down. The 49ers need a perimeter passing attack, and Greg Roman should’ve established one with McDonald, Kyle Williams, Jon Baldwin and Marlon Moore. It’s pure fallacy that those guys aren’t any good. They needed to be developed during this past stretch of poor NFL contenders. It’s somewhat true that receivers have to “win” but it’s even more true that scheme gets receivers open. Fans are calling for Kyle Williams to be cut, but if he’s cut he’ll be picked up in a second and the 49ers will be embarrassed when Kyle produces for another team with an OC who knows how to create offensive passing schemes that gets Kyle open. Greg should have been working on this 49er passing attack against the Jags, Cards and Titans. Instead, he chose to play it safe with a power run game that won’t necessarily serve the 49ers well come playoff time.

    With Alex Smith the 49ers did compete with a power run attack because their defense was much better than it is today. Rogers, Justin Smith, Bowman, Willis, Dashon, Whitner, McDonald and Aldon were younger, trying to prove something, and quite frankly, a lot of them were sick of losing under Singletary and even Nolan. So Harbaugh came in and brought some fire to a team of under-achievers. But now this defense is older, not as stout against the run, and they aren’t as dominant as a unit. If you have a good, but not great, defense with a one dimensional offense, you don’t have a formula for winning Super Bowls. And this notion that Crabtree and Manningham coming back from major injuries mid-season to save the day is fool’s gold.

    For the 49ers to have a chance to win the Super Bowl, Greg Roman needed to develop a perimeter passing attack with McDonald, Williams, Baldwin and maybe Marlon Moore. You can say those guys aren’t good enough, but a good, pass-oriented OC (a guy like McCarthy, McDaniels, Payton or even McCoy) would have developed McDonald, Williams, Baldwin and Moore and then not had to rely on Crabtree or Manningham much at all. And that would have been the prudent approach – all things considered.

    The 49ers will make the playoffs as a wildcard, and they’ll have to go on the road to Dallas, and will probably beat them handily. But, unless Roman pulls a couple of passing aces out of his sleeve during the second half of the season, the 49ers will lose on the road in either Seattle or New Orleans.

    As a fan, I’m disappointed in Greg Roman for not recognizing earlier that the read option wasn’t the ticket in 2013. I’m disappointed Kaep wasn’t asked to be more of a pocket passer, and that Greg didn’t call a lot more conventional play action, with Kaep throwing for larger chunks, with more prolific passing numbers. Greg and Kaep had the receivers even though Crabtree and Manningham were injured. However, even though Spitblood’s crystal ball is usually pretty clear and accurate, they still have to play the games. Go Niners!

    1. Well written and you very possibly could be correct. I think the brass went back to what they knew worked (power running) after the 2nd loss (Indy) and Kap struggling as much as he was.

      The 2nd half of last year proved out what Harbaugh was after by releasing Smith when Kap lit up the yard against Chicago on that Monday night and well into the playoffs. We simply haven’t seen it this year outside of Green Bay which makes your points valid. If we fall behind on the road in the playoffs, they will not be able to lean so heavily on the run game and will not have the firepower through the air to come back.

      I also agree that to think MM and Crabs will come back at full strength is naive. I guess I’m hoping they approach something similiar to mid-season form by the playoffs, but maybe that’s asking too much. Let’s have faith in the coaching staff….they’re all we’ve got!

    2. San Francisco is playing better football than Seattle as this marathon heads for home. It’s all about peaking at the right time, while at the same time keeping yourself in the race. The receivers you mention wouldn’t be returning to the field unless they were ready. The defensive backend is playing lights out and expectations that the front seven will get stronger with the reinforments on the way is warranted. This staff has taken a methodical approach for this years Lombardi Trophy. The 49ers will win the division and go on to meet the Broncos in the Super Bowl…

      1. It certainly is about “peeking,” however you must have the capability of a balanced offensive attack- meaning you have to be capable of throwing and running on offense and getting better at passing (peeking) in the playoffs. If you can’t throw, your passing game won’t “peek.”

        In addition, the Colts will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, not the Broncos. Colts / Saints, maybe Colts / Seahawks. The 49ers and Broncos are flawed, overrated teams.

      2. They have 8 weeks to develop a stronger aerial attack. When Kaepurnicus rolls out, look for Manningham chemistry along the sidelines to develop. Look for the deep sideline connection. Don’t be surprised if VMac does not start to factor into that equation as well.

        You might be correct about the Broncos being overrated, but the defending NFC Champions have yet to play their best football….

  19. Razoreater predicts: Niners vs Broncos in the Super Bowl.
    Drew Brees might have something to say about that.
    Stay tuned for week #11.

    1. I’m confident the 49ers will take the Brees out of the Saints sail. I have consulted with the meteorologist, and he informed me to expect a good stiff Brees in Seattle to ground the Seahawks….

  20. MM will have 2 catches against Carolina. He will end up with 15 catches for the season.

    Crabtree will end up with 10 catches for the season.

  21. 2 catches for Manningham vs the Panthers and 24 for the season. Crabtree won’t have a catch in the regular season.

  22. MM 2 catches next week 16 for the season. Crabtree 14 for the season. Some of the predictions seem to be based on either Boldin and Davis will catch less or the 9ers will start throwing the ball a whole lot more , I don’t think either of those will happen. I do believe we will see Hunter and LMJ carrying the ball more down the stretch.

  23. Manningham-6 catches 74 yards vs carolina
    prediction for season 275 total yards

    crabtree makes 20 catches this season for 300 yds

  24. The moment you say “without going going over” you prejudice your data, and skew the results. Your comments on selecting out long yardage gains before computing AVg Yds/carry are similarly unsound statistically. Football, being a true team sport, defies statistical analysis anyway. Grant’s attempts to create new math logic is ill informed and ill advised

  25. IF manningham plays vs panthers I think he has 1 catch (a screen). And will finish with 28 on the season. Crab will have 18.

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