Russell Wilson 2013 passing stats: Inside/outside pocket

To help put Colin Kaepernick’s 2013 inside/outside of the pocket passing stats in context, here are Russell Wilson’s 2013 inside/outside of the pocket passing stats:

INSIDE THE POCKET

322 attempts
213 completions
2,568 yards
20 TDs
5 INTs
66.1 completion percentage
8.0 yards per attempt
6.2 TD percentage
1.6 INT percentage
104.7 passer rating

OUTSIDE OF THE POCKET

153 attempts
87 completions
1,313 yards
9 TDs
4 INTs
56.9 completion percentage
8.6 yards per attempt
5.9 TD percentage
2.6 INT percentage
93.9 passer rating

These numbers indicate that Wilson is a better pocket passer than Kaepernick, while Kaeperinck is a better passer outside of the pocket than Wilson.

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      1. Grant has anyone interviewed Jerry rice about his thoughts on his cousin’s wr skills? Just wondering what his take is on what his cousin can do.

        1. I really doubt they’d interview him about his cousin instead of his son, who is a bum

      2. Grant — Now if you would run the same stats for the previous year for Kaep it might reflect how much his play and stats were affected by circumstance of last year.

      1. “Super Bowls can be won by solid QB play.”

        Of course it can, if that solid play is coming from the pocket.

        1. Conditional on the line giving the QB time and the receivers getting separation and also making plays.

            1. Yup, Oregon,
              Same rules as Alex (long gone) Smith. A better line would have helped. But then again, it was that O-line that helped him turn the corner on his TD run against the Saints in the playoffs.

              Oregon, Alex had his chance under the Harbaugh regime (I say Harbaugh because to many here his previous years didn’t count), and while he was vastly improved in Harbaugh’ system he wasn’t the QB Harbaugh had envisioned for this system.

              CK had his struggles last season and I don’t feel that anyone has given him a free pass or as a couple of people have said “crowned him.”
              Nobody is crowning anyone around here. Kaep has to make big improvements from last year or Harbaugh’ projection that Kaep has a high ceiling will fall on deaf ears.

              As I’ve been saying since the end of last season, I expect CK to have a great year in 2014 and that includes in or outside the pocket.

              Crying over and comparing Alex or Wilson to Kaep is a moot point because they do not play for the 49ers.
              Unless those other QB’ can contribute to 49er wins I don’t really care what they do.

              1. Well said AES. I completely agree with you. CK will continue to improve and I expect another productive year from him. I don’t understand these comparisons to Wilson or Alex. What’s the point?

              2. @AES

                “That Oline helped him….” that’s pretty thin milk you’re peddling there. It was the element of surprise that sprung Alex vs the saints that could have been performed by a good High School Oline. So you think that Alex Smith had his ‘chance’ in the Harbaugh system, and that he wasn’t the QB that Harbaugh envisioned for this system….I disagree, or if that was the case, the fault lies with Harbaugh not studying the tape of his previous 5-6 years which was available to him.

                You have said, several times that you expect Kaep to have a greatly improved year….Just which part of the chrystal ball are you looking at? I’m not sure just who is responsible for the quote regarding doing the same thing over the same way and expecting a different outcome comes into play here….

                Also crying over and complaining is NOT a moot point; comparing them to Kaep is fair game in that no, they do not play for the 49ers, but they do and will compete nose to nose with Kaep. I will admit AES, you are a strong CK fan

            1. Antwaan Randle El.

              You never said they needed to be the starting QB, or even a full time QB :-)

    1. Yup, Payton Manning looked exceptional in the pocket against Seattle didn’t he?

      Let’s face it, Kaep is not the prototypical QB. Harbaugh/Baalke seem to be good with that and that’s all that matters.

      Roger Staubach (Cowboys) got his nick-name “Roger the Dodger” because he was very efficient as a runner. BTW, he won SB VI and XII.

      Staubach was well known for his ability to run but he became a very good pocket passer as well. I believe that Kaep will learn to do the same.

      If I remember correctly (speaking of pocket passers), the pass from Montana to D.Clark (The Catch I) against the cowboys in the playoffs was out of the pocket.

      Speaking for myself, I expect to see a big improvement in Kaep’ play this coming season. A small increment of improvement will not suffice.

      1. “Yup, Payton Manning looked exceptional in the pocket against Seattle didn’t he?”

        Being able to operate efficiently from the pocket doesn’t mean the QB has to be a statue.

        “Let’s face it, Kaep is not the prototypical QB. Harbaugh/Baalke seem to be good with that and that’s all that matters.”

        That’s a cop out. Of course they do. They drafted the guy. Doesn’t mean their belief in him will be justified with a ring.

        “Roger Staubach (Cowboys) got his nick-name “Roger the Dodger” because he was very efficient as a runner. BTW, he won SB VI and XII.

        Staubach was well known for his ability to run but he became a very good pocket passer as well. I believe that Kaep will learn to do the same.”

        You just made my point. Staubach is a good example of A QB that won the Super Bowl once he became efficient in the pocket. Same with Steve Young.

        “If I remember correctly (speaking of pocket passers), the pass from Montana to D.Clark (The Catch I) against the cowboys in the playoffs was out of the pocket.”

        Sure it was. Would you consider Montana a scrambling QB? I wouldn’t. He was a pocket QB with mobility.

        “Speaking for myself, I expect to see a big improvement in Kaep’ play this coming season. A small increment of improvement will not suffice.”

        We’ll see.

        1. If Culliver could track a deep ball, if Harbaugh learned to use a timeout in critical moments and if our special teams could keep a return man out of the end zone, then Kaepernick could hhave easily won a Superbowl playing out of the pocket.
          Bravo Jack you are now a Grant clone. Remember Jack your only value is breaking down 22film.

          1. “If Culliver could track a deep ball, if Harbaugh learned to use a timeout in critical moments and if our special teams could keep a return man out of the end zone,”

            All valid parts of why they got behind in that game.

            “then Kaepernick could hhave easily won a Superbowl playing out of the pocket.”

            He had three shots at the endzone from the 5 yard line. Three shots to etch his name in history. Three shots to immortality. And each of those shots fell incomplete. Three shots. And he ultimately failed.

          2. Bravo Jack you are now a Grant clone. Remember Jack your only value is breaking down 22film.

            Yeah, Jack, when will you learn to write mind-blowingly hypocritical comments? That’s how one adds value to the blog.

          3. If the lights didn’t go out in the Superdome, CK would be running for the hills as he would have been the QB behind the worse loss in Niner SB history. Crap. They lost! People forget he was having a really bad game before the black out.
            Stop making excuse for CK. Bringing up Culliver and the Special Teams TD? Good lord!

            He’s not there yet, he had a chance to win the biggest of games with QB play — in the pocket – and didn’t come through.
            That’s the past, let’s see if he’s grown up at all this off season. So far it doesn’t appear that way.

      1. I guess the 49ers have a big decision to make now, I think they were hoping for some sort of clarification before Saturday. Thanks for the info.

  1. i’m not sure what the point of the comparison is. it’s not like when their teams play each other they take turns playing QB and DB against each other.

  2. My biggest question is where do we point the finger in comparisons like this? Is Wilson just that much better of a decision-maker or is the 49ers’ coaching staff incapable of crafting a game plan suited to Colin’s talents?

    1. U really can’t compare..other than common opponents..but them bein in different offensive systems and under different individual game situations .I mean it’s pointless.

        1. It isn’t pointless because it does give you information as to the strengths and weaknesses of that season. But one must also consider the other variables involved. Of course that makes the equation more complicated. More complicated than some either can or want to deal with.

        2. It is pointless claude..another kap bashing biased topic..What Russell did in his games has zero meaning to what kap did in his..that’s my point..different situations..different strategies..different personnel..Zero!

  3. Kap’s year last year was a tough one to grade imo. His statline was ruined in the three games he didn’t have both Vernon & Crabtree. The first game at Seattle, Indie & Carolina were the three worse games of his year in 2013 and he didn’t have his best two offensive weapons. That’s only amplified when you consider who the backups were at the positions

  4. Well hopefully our guys is doing his homework and working on his skills rather than just strength conditioning.

  5. This stats back up what is obvious, even without “weapons”, Wilson is a better passer than Kap. Kap has a stronger arm, runs faster, and is more “dynamic” than Wilson. Wilson is a pass-first scrambler. Kap is a runner who can scramble and pass.

    1. I think lynch was more effective than our running attack. Wilson wasn’t very effective when his running game was shut down. Similar to us.

      1. @Paul This. Russell actually had few more carries and a few more yards than Kap in the regular season. If anything, he was held back because the coaches told him not to run all season

        1. They held him back for the same reason that the Niners held Kaep back in the beginning of the season. They didn’t want him to get injured. One difference is that Kaeps running was part of the game plan and Wilsons was mostly on broken play scrambles. I remember in the early games when Kaep had open lanes and didn’t take them. Rather he tried to find an open receiver which never materialized and then he had to run for it anyway or throw the ball into coverage. He was definately told not to run. Who would they have had to replace him? Part of that policy had to do with the interpretation of when the QB became a running back. Remember none call on Mathews in the Green bay game. Harbaugh was sure that it would be open season on him.

          1. Wilson is a better broken play runner. He is very elusive. Kaep takes advantage of open lanes better. Their most effective plays on the ground come from entirely different circumstances.

        2. I wasn’t talking about Wilson running, I was talking about lynch being stopped in the first half. When we were able to stop lynch, then Wilson wasn’t very effective. Same with Gore or Kaep, when the threat of a run was there, then the passing game opened up.

          1. @willtalk @paul yeah, I definitely agree with you both, I was arguing against @Jon_in _SoCal calling Wilson a better passer, and identifying Kap as a “runner who can pass & scramble.” That’s nonsense to me. Kap is a quarterback who ran 92 times all year compared to 416 pass attempts. Russell Wilson actually had a few more runs and a few less pass attempts so yeah – Russell ran more than Kap in 2013.

          2. I have the sneaking suspicion that Seattle was able to focus so much attention on stopping the running game because they simply weren’t concerned about the 49ers’ passing game. And the grand total of 147 yards passing against a defense focusing on stopping the run would seem to validate such a lack of concern.

  6. I’m Surpassed by these numbers because it seemed like teams were trying to contain him and not let him out of the pocket. However, both numbers were great whether inside or out.

          1. Not exactly the sharpest tool in the shed. Good thing you don’t need to be to play football!

  7. I can see Wilson’s numbers in the pocket improving this season. If Harvin can stay healthy for the first time in his life, Wilson will choose to play more from the pocket. Being said, it will still keep open up the big gain on a broken play. Wilson should get better all over the board this season. Kap is my boy, but Wilson is one of the best young players in the league and deserves to be called so. Kap will improve in all areas as well – these two are definitely special talents.

  8. Side by side Wilson’s number are almost identical to Kaeps. I will give him the edge as far as decision making which goes a long way. The difference between the Seahawks going to the Super Bowl instead of the niners is clearly the secondary. Our secondary was no where near as good as theirs. We can talk about Kaps and Wilson’s stats until we are blue in the face. Their secondary made plays while ours didn’t.

    1. Precisely! I don’t think that we can upgrade our secondary this coming season to eliminate that edge. But we can diminish the dominance of their secondary by getting the type of player that they have trouble with and that is top speed receiver. Davis can not fill the bill in that respect against Seattle because their FS Thomas matches up really well and shuts him down every game.

      1. True. We have to go 3-4 wide against them and force them into a zone. Even if Kaep had kept running in the 2nd half that outcome is different.

    2. Agreed. And actually you can really boil it down to one play and that was the 4th and 7 when they threw the 33 yard TD. With a better secondary, that does not happen and the 49ers are in the SuperBowl.

  9. Note to Coach Harbaw:

    Colin (24 TDS) and 81% rating
    Russell (29 TDS) and 104% rating…

    conclusion: Wilson makes better decisions and
    Pete Carroll is a better coach. Ouch…!!!

    My name is Alex Smith and I approve of this message.

  10. Kaep is not the reason we have been winning and debatably the reason why we haven’t been able to win the big1. He is too easy to game plan against . not to mention his wr core and line is vastly superior to Wilson’s

    1. Thanks for clearing that up. Kap gets none of the credit and all of the blame. Just maybe could it be somewhere in the middle. Heck no… One extreme or the other with 90% of the people on here.

    2. Most of the issues for Kaep came while Crabtree was out, and especially while Vernon was out a couple of games. I believe Kaep will do well again, but no one makes good decisions when going up against defenses like Seattle when you don’t have a lot of time to throw. Look at Manning! We suffered a huge blow when our guard went down with the broken leg, because I running game went away shortly afterwards.

    3. Yet they won 8 of their last 9 games, five of which were on the road….. Nice try Matt…. Enjoy watching Kaep get a long term contract and sitting behind center for the 49ers for many years to come….

  11. Niners Roster puts any qb behind center in positions to win. Kaep played well vs Car and GB but he tried to give both those games away with horrible passes that were dropped by dB’s too. He has not shown the ability to be trusted in the big moment. And we all know what he has to do to regain that trust. Hope he can . just don’t know if I can take another almost there moment.

  12. It seems to me that if Kaepernick had thrown the ball way 8 times instead of thowing 8 picks in those passes the inside the pocket stats would be virtually the same as the outside the pocket stats.

  13. the man above said it very well…
    nobody is interested in any more
    “almost there” moments…

    Are you listening, Mister Harbaw…?
    This is your credibility on the line, fella.

    the Super Bowl monkey is on your back … still

  14. Come on Grant its a little over a week untill the draft and you’re still throwing this CK Vs Wilson crap out there. Please stop you are just like those who would’nt let the whole Alex Smith conversation die after he was traded. Ck has taken the 9ers to the SB and NFCCG in his 2 seasons and Wilson has gotten the Seahawks to the playoffs and won a SB in his 2 seasons. Sounds like 2 pretty damn good QB’s. Please stop beating a dead horse. You should have been an accountant with your love of esoteric numbers. You really should join a Fantasy baseball league because you are what we affectionately call a Roto geek. Lets move on to all draft all the time . Please.

    1. The Kaepernick pocket stats had value for me because it clarified how my teams good quarterback can become more effective and what he needs to work on.

      Th whole compare thing with Wilson naturally has less value for me. Wilson isn’t my teams QB.

      1. Some people like to say Wilson and Kaepernick are the same QB, but that’s false. Wilson is a much better pocket passer, and Kaepernick actually is a slightly better outside-the-pocket passer.

        1. Grant,

          Some people like to say Wilson and Kaepernick are the same QB, but that’s false. Wilson is a much better pocket passer, and Kaepernick actually is a slightly better outside-the-pocket passer.

          They are the same in many ways Grant. Both play in run first offenses and throw less than most teams in the NFL. Both use a lot of playaction, with Wilson the highest in playaction snaps, both make big plays outside the pocket. There is few differences and the fact you are trying to say Wilson is a much better pocket passer is simplistic with no context. I have no doubt Wilson is more comfortable in the pocket than Kap because he’s had more time in it going back to Wisconsin, but that doesn’t mean he’s a much better pocket passer or that Kap will not develop his passing from the pocket to a higher level.

          1. Wilson is a much better pocket passer than Kaepernick right now. But yes, that could change.

      2. Brodie,

        Did you really need this to realize Kap needs to improve in the pocket? I don’t mean any disrespect, but don’t we all know that is the area he needs to improve on simply by watching his progress so far?

        I think many of us lose sight of just how little time Kap has spent in a conventional offense and how long it takes to become adept at something you’ve never done, and now have to work on against the elite of the NFL. The strides Kap has made from Nevada to a year and a half in the NFL sitting on the bench were nothing short of phenomenal. I mean think about it, he ran nothing close to a pro offense in College then comes to SF where he gets no offseason Coaching his first year due to the lockout and then plays sparingly his first year and a half. The only way a QB truly reaches his potential is by playing. Kap has only played for a season and a half and is learning how to be a pocket passer in live action.

        He struggled at times during the first half of last season but it was his first full season as a starter. There are going to be growing pains especially with somebody as raw as Kap was coming out of College. The positive outlook is that he improved as the season went along. First half of the season he threw 9 TD’s and 5 ints and had periods where he struggled not having Crabtree. In the second half of the season, he threw 12 TD’s, 3 Ints, won six games in a row and had high passer ratings and QBR’s in 5 out of the 6 games.

        That should tell us two things: 1) he benefitted greatly from Crabtree’s return which should be obvious, 2) he also improved his game overall and gradually became more confident in what he was doing.

        I can’t stress this enough: He has 29 career starts. He has won 20 of them and gone to a SB and NFCCG in a year and a half as a starter. Don’t sweep that under the rug and say yeah but. That is a hell of an accomplishment that deserves more respect than it gets from some around here.

        1. Kaepernick’s pocket passing numbers actually went down after Crabtree came back.

          From Week 13 when Crabtree came back through the NFC Championship game, these were Kaepernick’s pocket passing stats:

          165 attempts
          92 completions
          1,201 yards
          3 TDs
          4 INTs
          55.8 completion percentage
          7.3 yards per attempt
          1.8 TD percentage
          2.4 INT percentage
          74.8 passer rating

        2. Of course I realized we all know pocket isn’t Kaep’s strong suit, which is why I said “clarified.” The 12 TD/10 INT inside vs 12 TD/1 INT outside is stark.

    1. Matt i think the reality of the situation is you find Grants stats relevant in the manner he presents them. I’ve said the same thing over and over again since Grant took over the blog. There are lies, then there are damned lies and then there are statistics. You can make stats say anything you want especially if you are the one gathering the stats.

      1. Coach,

        All they are is the numbers for inside and outside the pocket, they don’t look doctored to make a point either way.

        1. They may not be doctored but there is no context to them either. There is no break down of down and distance, pressure, play action etc. That is why we leave these breakdowns up to sites like PFF and Football outsiders, who not coincidentally ranked Kap ahead of Wilson in the year end rankings. Kap also ranked well ahead of Wilson in Total QBR (7th overall to 13th for Wilson). What that tells us is what we saw in the playoffs; Wilson was not as essential to his teams success as Kap was to his. This was obvious in the playoffs, but the overall numbers and rankings show it as well.

          Much like when Alex Smith was here, the drama derived from negative entries about the starting QB of the Niners drives the site traffic. There were minimal responses to most of the interview entries Grant did so we get this kind of stuff to get the forum rolling again. I get it, but it’s tiresome to keep reading it.

          1. The context is inside the pocket and outside the pocket. It’s a split stat. PFF does many split stats, too, like passing stats before/after holding the ball for 2.5 seconds, passing stats to particular quadrants of the field, etc.

          2. Stop being oversensitive.

            How is showing the stats of both players a negative entry about a 49ers QB?

            1. I’m not being oversensitive at all. I’m tired of reading the same stuff deriding the starting QB that I read while Alex Smith was here. It’s wash, rinse, repeat and the reason for the entries is so Grant can negatively portray Kap in comparison to Wilson. That is the only reason to do it.

              1. All they are is numbers. The numbers show Kaepernick was very good outside the pocket but struggled inside of it in 2013. They also show that Wilson was a more balanced QB.

                It is what it is. Many on here like to say that numbers don’t tell the whole story and that is correct, they don’t, but they give information.

                You can also come up with a way to explain away anything to prop your guy up.

                What was Grant’s motivation? I’ll let him answer that one.

                If you’re so tired of reading it, there is a simple solution.

              2. My motivation is I’ve been looking for an inside/outside the pocket split stat since November, and I finally decided to tally it up myself.

              3. “Many on here like to say that numbers don’t tell the whole story and that is correct, they don’t, but they give information.”

                Very nicely put, Jack.

              4. They didn’t show he struggled inside the pocket Jack. He was not as good in the pocket as he was outside of it, but saying he struggled is hyperbole. As I’ve pointed out repeatedly, he is a work in progress in the pocket, but he’s portrayed as being worse than he is in examples like this. And yes I know I don’t have to read it, thanks for the clarification.

              5. “He was not as good in the pocket as he was outside of it, but saying he struggled is hyperbole”

                Now you’re just debating semantics.

              6. No I’m not. He had a positive TD to Int ratio, a good YPA and the completion percentage was 58%. When you take into account he was throwing a greater percentage of his passes downfield compared to Wilson, I don’t think you can say he struggled. What he needs to do is live for the next play more than he does and take the dump off.

              7. Forget the comparison to Wilson. 10TD to 7 Int isn’t a very good ratio, and neither is completing under 60% of his passes.

              8. Jack,

                You said he struggled and I disagree. As I’ve pointed out, there are other factors that go into it that are not disclosed in Grants numbers.

              9. Of course, but by the numbers Kaepernick struggled throwing from the pocket compared to outside of it.

              10. >>What was Grant’s motivation? I’ll let him answer that one.

                I’d say the motivation is a theme he took up last season. That the 49ers’ coaches are blithering idiots for not calling more rollouts and moving pockets to play up to this strength. Now if Grant were the OC, we’d see things change around here.

          3. rocket:

            The numbers are comprehensive for the entire year. They cover all downs and distances, pressure situations, play actions, etc. The sample sizes should be large enough to iron out the context issues you mention, unless you have reason to believe that Harbaugh disproportionately keeps Kaepernick in the pocket when faced with the more difficult situations.

            Forget about Grant’s need to troll the fanboys by comparing Kaepernick’s numbers to Wilson’s numbers. Looking solely at Kaepernick’s numbers, one can see a fairly stark difference between his performance in the pocket and his performance out of the pocket. That is meaningful and worth discussing.

            1. Kaepernick’s outside-the-pocket passing numbers are unbelievable. He’s got a gift.

              Wilson’s pocket passing numbers are surprising. No one realizes he’s that good in the pocket.

              1. And he only allows Officer Hammer to post images of a jockstrap, and if anyone else attempts to, the moderation chief comes along with his ethics eraser….

              2. It would be interesting to see what his numbers look like with Bruce Miller and without.

            2. Claude,

              The context I’m talking about comes in the way of game situations, how many passes thrown at what distance, how effective was the running game that day etc. You can’t just take stats at face value without context. That is why sites like PFF and Football outsiders exist. QBR takes game situations and the QB’s effect in the outcome of the game into greater account and Kap is ranked much higher than Wilson in that rating. That is what I’m talking about in regards to context.

              Here’s a simple example of how the numbers can be manipulated:

              Wilson threw 72 passes behind the LOS and completed 51 of them. Kap only threw 41 and completed 33. That is 31 more attempts for Wilson of a pass that is a gimme to complete and greatly affects the completion percentage.

              Wilson threw 189 passes of 1-10 yards and completed 137. Kap threw 222 passes of 1-10 yards and completed 143. Harder pass to complete and Kap threw 33 more of them than Wilson.

              Wilson threw 82 passes of 11-20 yards and completed 43. Kap threw 106 and completed 53. Again a harder throw to complete and Kap threw 24 more of them.

              Wilson threw 41 passes of 21-30 yards and completed 20. Kap threw 33 and completed 9.

              Wilson threw 13 passes of 31-40 yards and completed 5. Kap threw 11 and completed 4.

              Wilson threw 9 passes of 41+ yards and completed 1. Kap threw 2 and completed 1.

              Now looking at these numbers where is the greatest discrepancy? Passes thrown behind the LOS and passes thrown in the 21-30 range. All the other numbers are close and we know Kap doesn’t have a deep threat on the deep passes which Wilson does, so tell me how these numbers make Wilson the better pocket passer? They can’t, just like Grant’s can’t, because there is no game context to them. What they tell us most of Wilson’s better completion percentage comes in passes thrown behind the LOS. That is why I’ve been touting the fact Kap has to learn to take the short option more often and if he does the completion percentage will go up dramatically and the field will open up more for the big play as well.

              There is no argument from me that Wilson is further along as a complete QB and there never has been. What I take offense too is this idea that he’s a better QB or sees the field better when that is not the case. Both QB’s play in a 1-2 read offense and then escape the pocket. Where Wilson truly excels over Kap is taking the short option and completing some of the deeper passes when he is scrambling around and defenders lose contain of his receivers. What I don’t get from any of these numbers is the idea that Wilson is a much better pocket passer. You need context to figure that out and that has not transpired here.

              1. rocket:

                I guess I should have inverted the order of the paragraphs in my message. I’m not particularly interested in Wilson’s numbers, other than to the extent it informs Fangio how to defend against him, and I see limited value in comparing the QB’s respective numbers. When looking solely at Kaepernick’s numbers, however, I find the statistics Grant presented insightful and in proper context.

              2. We’ll agree to disagree. As I pointed out in the post above, Wilson threw more short higher percentage passes and that is a big reason for the completion percentage difference. Grant’s intent was to compare the two which is why he did entries for both. While the stats for Kap are interesting, the intent was to portray Wilson favorably and Kap negatively which is why he did not include the distance or situations that the throws took place in.

              3. Claude,

                The lack of context and Grants motivation for the entries. I think the numbers are interesting too, but I don’t think that is why they were put in here. If the numbers had been reversed I doubt the entries are made at all.

              4. That offends me. I wouldn’t have spent the better part of two afternoons tallying all of that up to not post my findings.

              5. rocket:

                I’m not sure that we are that far apart on either. I’ve just come to expect Grant to do what he does.

              6. Claude,

                Understood. I think I’ve become disillusioned and tired of defending a player who has a SB appearance and NFCCG under his belt. Time to just let people think what they want and let the results on the field speak for themselves.

              7. That offends me. I wouldn’t have spent the better part of two afternoons tallying all of that up to not post my findings.

                I call it as I see it Grant sorry if that offends you. You have spent the entire year filling this blog with negative entries about Kaepernick; why in the world would I expect you to change the tone now?

              8. It’s not negative, it’s just his split stats. His outside-the-pocket numbers are surprisingly outstanding, among the best in the NFL, I imagine. He has the ability to become one of the greatest outside-the-pocket passers ever. But currently he is a sub-par pocket passer, while Wilson already is an outstanding pocket passer even though he’s a year younger than Kaepernick.

              9. Grant,
                you just made me chuckle. You spent way too much time this season attacking the starting quarterback for our 49ers. This is a 49er blog, so how did you think folks would react?

                You implemented a code of conduct on your blog indicating that you would not tolerate personal attacks. Then your father levied a personal attack on Kaepernick that would have gotten him banned from your own blog.
                You share stats and information about our passing offense that are personal digs at the QB behind the veil that you are providing us with useful information. You gush over QB’s that will never get drafted here and point out their areas of strength. Those areas of strength just happen to be upgrades over our QB’s perceived areas of weaknesses.

                All of this takes a toll on your credibility, it makes you appear disingenuous to the hard core 49er fan. Then you write a piece, you get questioned for it, and your response is that you are offended. Hehehehe.

                Grant, you are a victim of your own writing style. Spend more time doing the informational pieces, something you are quite good at by the way, and you’ll get more raving reviews. You’ll also get less people dissecting your pieces and your motives…..

              10. I pointed out a positive and a negative about Kaepernick. Clearly, you feel the negative outweighs the positive. Good to know.

              11. Razor,
                don’t forget Whitner. Made Wilson look elite. I throw up in my mouth a little every time I hear guys in here gush about the enemy. Even calling Wilson “Elite” when it was his defense and running game that actually put them past their toughest opponents the 49ers.

                Tough to call a QB elite when he passed for 103 and 108 yards in two of the last three weeks of the season. That is flat out terrible. Is Wilson good? Yes, but I’ll be darned if I am going to gush about any player on the Seahawks in the middle of a rivalry….

                Razor, btw I’d enjoy the game just fine eating nachos and drinking beer with you….

              12. Wilson’s pocket numbers last season were elite — 66 completion percentage, 8 yards per attempt, 6.2 TD percentage, 104 rating. His receiving weapons were middle-of-the-pack at best.

        2. Jack my original post was’nt really concerned with the validity of the stats. I was just venting about a subject that i am sick and tierd of reading about. No other blog is beating this subject to death like Grant. It reminds me so much of the posters who would’nt let the whole Alex Smith discussion die after he was traded. I would much rather be reading about what Grant’s sources inside the team were telling him about whether or not the team was going to pick up A. Smiths 2015 option. Another subject i would rather be reading about is what Grant’s sources inside the team were telling him about the possibilty of the 9ers trading up in the 1st rd and who they might be targeting. I would like to read a post where Grant predicts who he believe the 9ers WIll pick as opposed to who he believes they SHOULD pick. Now i’m ranting and i did’nt mean to. Go 9ers

          1. Coach,

            There are no sources giving out that information. We’ll all find out by Saturday night if Smith’s option will be picked up.

            As for the draft, do you really expect anyone within the organization to leak their true interests?

          2. Kaepernick’s 1/1 TD/INT ratio in the pocket is worth discussing. That’s going to affect the 49ers’ Super Bowl chances next season more than any rookie.

              1. We have to keep our eye on Grant, Claude. He is the president of the Kaepernick Haters Club, you know. This was just another opportunity he took to skew the data to fit his personal hatred of the quarterback of the 49ers.

              2. I’m not a Kaepernick hater, I just think he isn’t elite. You don’t give a QB Aaron Rodgers money if that QB has a 6/5 TD/INT ratio in the pocket.

              3. JPN,

                I know you’re being facetious, but I have to disagree. Grant has done this repeatedly since taking over the blog going back to ripping Alex Smith and doing the same kinds of comparisons to other QB’s while undervaluing his ability to win. If this was the first time I had seen blog entries like this I wouldn’t care, but this is an ongoing tactic Grant has used and will continue to use to create drama and forum responses. His opinions on players change from month to month so I guess it’s better to take it with a grain of salt.

              4. I’m not a Kaepernick hater, I just think he isn’t elite. You don’t give a QB Aaron Rodgers money if that QB has a 1/1 TD/INT ration in the pocket.

                He’s done more in a year and a half than Rodgers did in his first 4 years Grant yet Rodgers got a big bump in an extension. Not only that but he’s not asking for Rodgers money as far as I know unless you are referring to Rodgers first extension in which case the inflation of QB salaries would explain the number he is reportedly asking for.

                When Seattle pays Wilson even more next year do you think it will be worth it?

          3. Coach thank you for pointing this out. You are one of the most fair balanced posters on this blog. I’ve called it out a million times myself. It’s tired already. I now know how you guys felt when I beat the Alex Smith horse to death. Enough already….

        3. Statistics do not have to be “doctored” to be misleading. Merely using them without proper context can be misleading. Furthermore, picking and choosing statistics to support predetermined conclusions (selection bias), instead of drawing conclusions from a statistical analysis, often result in misleading uses of statistics. Finally, statistical correlations do not necessarily represent significant real world correlations — some correlations are meaningful and some are coincident. The uncertainty inherent in statistical analysis is not with respect to the data itself — those are facts — but rather with respect determining which correlations are significant and which are coincident.

          Personally, I find the stats Grant worked out and presented to be interesting, and I thank him for his work. I think the statistical comparison of Kap’s individual stats inside and outside the pocket are likely meaningful for understanding his development and areas where his game is uneven. In fact, I am curious whether the same pattern adhered throughout the season or shifted over the course of the season.

          However, I am not sure I find the statistical comparison between the players as that meaningful outside of supposition that one situation is preferable to another. Additionally, the statistical comparison between Kap and Wilson may not be as meaningful as some posters seem to have assumed, even if we take as given that pocket performance is determinative of success. Numerous variables may impact the data beyond the variables which are the focus here (the quarterbacks themselves), which means the statistical comparison between the two QBs, while interesting, is less meaningful than the statistical comparison of Kaepernick in the different situations.

          1. I wanted to clarify that I do not think Grant was misleading in providing the data and drawing his conclusion with respect to the statistical comparison between the two QBs. I find some of the subsequent conclusions drawn to be problematic. I think Grant did a nice job of limiting his stated conclusion to what the data show.

          2. Even with the focus solely on CK, there are a lot of contextual variables not being accounted for. Since its probably too complicated to do so, one then has to understand the simple stat comparison as a snapshot. It suggests drilling down into parts of the data for more clarity. Some interpretations can be made, others may be a reach. Its a snapshot, not a set of Blueprints.

      1. He stole crab legs. Those things are usually kept behind the glass. He was all in for the meaty claws.

          1. Winston is obviously trolling the 49ers. First he steals crab legs, and then in his statement he says he knows he needs to be above reproach.

            1. Did the Seminoles say that they were looking into the situation and there is no other comments at this point

              1. LOL! That would have been perfect, but instead they suspended him from the baseball team. (the low revenue generating sport)

  15. I have a theory…

    Grant Cohn, Jack Hammer, and Superbowl Monkey all the same person.

    You’re a genius Grant….if that’s even your real name.

  16. Miaocco is predicting that the 9ers may trade up with the Ravens at #17. Anyone have any guesses who they might take there. I’ve heard Dennard might be slipping i would love to have him at CB next year.

        1. In my first all 32 w/trades I had Baltimore snagging Benjamin at #17 and the 49ers taking fuller at #19.

          1. I think that scenario would be very positive for the 49ers. Fuller would fill their biggest need.

      1. I would be happy with either, even though McShay is saying that we will get Benjamin at 30 in his latest mock

    1. At 17 I thinks it’s safe to say it would be a WR or CB unless they fell in love with a guy like Calvin Pryor. I think ultimately the Niners probably make these kind of calls to multiple teams and the way the board falls will dictate whether they trade up or not.

    2. Dennard will be available at 17 and a solid pickup in that spot. Benjamin in the 1st round? That guy has bust written all over him – too big and slow to play WR. Fuller is another solid CB who will most likely be available in the mid 20’s. He’s not a great open field tackler, however, his quickness, physical style, and length could be exactly what the 49ers need.

          1. Nick:

            I guess I walked into that one. Allow me to rephrase. I find it difficult to be enthusiastic about the prospect of the 49ers drafting that guy.

              1. Now, that was an exciting play.

                If Beckham has 10 inch hands, Baalke is going to be excited, and it’s his opinion that counts.

      1. Beckham would be my guess if they moved up to #17. And he’d be a great pick.

        Not sure why people find it hard to get excited about him. I can only assume the AJ Jenkins pick has turned some people off drafting guys around that size ever again. If so that is silly to me – he’s a vastly more talented and NFL ready player.

        I’ve not seen any other WR in this draft with the same combination of explosiveness, toughness, strong hands and natural feel for setting up DBs. When I watch his film I find it striking how many times he creates significant separation out of his breaks. For a QB that loves to see his guy get open before throwing the ball, that will be gold for Kaep.

        1. OBJr. is the one I thought of too. Gilbert probably won’t drop that far, nor Dennard or Evans. Marquise Lee isn’t a consideration that high. Fuller or OBJr. Gotta be OBJr….

        2. Scooter:

          Sorry, but I can’t articulate why I feel “meh” about Beckham. You make a compelling case for him, however, and I won’t be angry if the 49ers draft him. I just won’t be excited. If that happens, I hope to be wrong, spectacularly wrong, about him.

              1. Nothing but compliments.

                Jenkins Syndrome: A feeling of dread felt by 49ers fans brought on by the irrational fear the 49ers will draft ‘another Jenkins’. Also known as Balmer Syndrome or Rumph Syndrome.

          1. Maybe this is why I’m not all that excited about drafting Beckham (or any of the likely available WRs) in the 1st round. Of the 184 WRs drafted in the 1st or 2nd round since 1990, only 36 have made the Pro Bowl. That’s 19.6%. That success rate is the lowest for any position on offense. If you take out the 4 WRs who made the Pro Bowl solely as kick returners, the Pro Bowl rate falls to 17.4%.

            http://blog.sfgate.com/49ers/2014/04/29/on-highly-drafted-wrs-and-pro-bowl-percentage/

            Don’t have access to the numbers for defensive players.

            1. I take that back. For DBs (Pro Football Reference apparently doesn’t track CBs and Ss separately), the number is 27.4 % (76/277).

            2. In general I would agree with you. WRs are often over-hyped based on things like size or 40 times, or for putting up Madden-like #s in spread offenses where they don’t run pro-style route trees or need to learn how to run routes properly.

              That’s one of the reasons I like Beckham – he ran pro-style routes in a pro-style, run-first offense, and did it very well. He put up big #s on a team that relied on its running game, and was a contributor from day 1 at LSU. There’s no real guess work about whether he can learn it or do it. Its more a question of how much better he’ll get at it.

              1. There were only a handful of games where he didn’t put up at least decent stats. 9 of 13 games he had five or more catches. Of the games he didn’t have at least five catches:
                – Against Florida they only passed the ball 17 times all game, with only 9 completions. Beckham accounted for around 1/3 of total team passing yards.
                – Against Alabama he only got the ball thrown to him four times (caught 3). However, he was often used to clear out space underneath, and also got open multiple times but didn’t have the ball thrown his way for whatever reason (usually because Mett was under pressure and had to dump off or run for his life).
                – Against Arkansas he left the game early.
                – Against Iowa he was clearly bothered by his back injury.

                Have you watched his film in games where he didn’t put up huge #s? Even in those games he is getting open – Mettenberger just doesn’t pull the trigger or doesn’t put the ball in the right area.

              2. No mention of touchdowns. Those are kind of important. How many TDs did he score in the SEC? In the red zone?

              3. He’s not a red zone WR. Any team drafting him expecting him to be a demon in the red zone is kidding themselves.

                For whatever it is worth, Mettenberger threw just 22 TDs all season. 8 of those were to Beckham. That is actually a higher % than Benjamin scored for his team. Sure, only 2 of those were against SEC teams, but then Mettenberger only had 10 passing TDs against the SEC. They were a running team, especially in the red zone.

              4. I wouldn’t spend a first round pick on a receiver who is ineffective in the red zone. I want a complete receiver in the first round.

              5. Since when does the speed receiver who loosens up coverages also have to be the Red Zone guy? Are there any AJ Greens or Megatrons that are going to drop within SF’s range? Yes, the team needs a deep threat. Yes, the team needs to improve in the Red Zone. Why does one choice have to solve both problems. How does a fast guy stretch the coverages inside the 20 yard line?
                I know you hate to ever concede a point, Grant. I saw this thread developing yesterday and knew you’d try to continue this with Scooter.
                Is your boy Richardson going to be a go-to-guy in the RZ for whoever takes him?

              6. BT:

                On top of that, I’m not convinced that the receivers are responsible for the team’s red zone problems. Boldin in particular seems to be proficient in that part of the field. Davis has had his moments too.

                Then again, Crabtree’s contract runs out after this season, and Boldin is 63 years old, so the team has to think about replacing them.

              7. “I’m not convinced that the receivers are responsible for the team’s red zone problems.”

                Neither am I. Like you said, Boldin and Davis both have a history of success working in that part of the field.

              8. Interesting that after OBJr. started out vacant from Mayocks’ Top 5, he has vaulted to the third position, while Landry has dropped out. Film study…..

              9. Yeah I have to say I’ve lost some respect for Mayock after he did exactly what he and others have always said not to do: let a pro day affect the ranking of a player. He had Bridgewater ranked as the #1 QB on his board based on film study and then changed it due to a poor pro day and talking to people around the league. Kurt Warner said last night that Bridgewater is the best QB in the class on film and while he was at the pro day and it was not good, you can’t ignore the film. These guys over think it as much as we do sometimes.

              1. Another sufferer of ‘Jenkins Syndrome’ :-)

                Beckham and Jenkins have similar body and athletic types (though Beckham is far more sudden). But for me that is where the comparisons end. Jenkins didn’t fail because of his body type – other WRs have been highly successful with similar physical qualities, Bruce, Harrison, Holt, Wayne, etc.

              2. Hmmm, I disagree. See my previous post in response to Grant.

                Against “top” competition:

                – Auburn: 5/59/0
                – Georgia: 6/118/0
                – Mississippi State: 9/179/2
                – Florida: 2/47/0 (accounted for ~1/3 of passing yards)
                – Ole Miss: 5/72/0 (injured back during game)
                – Alabama: 3/42/0
                – Texas A&M: 5/50/0
                – Arkansas: 1/16/0 (left during 1st quarter after reaggrevating back injury)
                – Iowa (Outback Bowl): 2/35/0 (played sparingly due to back injury)

                Saying he disappeared against top competition is an easy statement to make without looking into his stats or film in any detail. His last two performances you can pretty much throw out – he didn’t play much due to injury. His other ‘poor’ performances involved a game plan that took away the pass (they got out to an early lead and pounded it down the throat of Florida all day) and a game where he got open but the QB was harassed all day and didn’t have time to let deeper routes develop and make plays down field often.

              3. Disregarding the games he was injured, if he put up those numbers in a pass happy offense I’d be concerned. But that wasn’t the case – those are pretty good receiving numbers in a run-oriented offense.

                He looks the part when you watch him play.

              4. LSU’s pass offense was just outside the top 1/3 in the country in yards per game.

                Of course Beckham looks the part. So did Jenkins.

              5. Beckham had a total of 12 receiving touchdowns in 3 seasons at LSU. 7 of those TD’s game in 3 games against UAB, Furman, and Towson.

              6. **came** not game.

                When my comments start to read like Rashede Hageman tweets it’s time for a break. ; )

              7. “LSU’s pass offense was just outside the top 1/3 in the country in yards per game.”

                Yes, of which Beckham provided around 1/3.

                “Of course Beckham looks the part. So did Jenkins.”

                Beckham looks a significantly better receiver than Jenkins did.

                “Beckham had a total of 12 receiving touchdowns in 3 seasons at LSU.”

                8 of which came last season – slightly over 1/3 of the team’s receiving TD total. In 2012 he had 2 TDs… on a team that had a grand total of 12 passing TDs. He’s not a red zone WR, yet he accounted for a reasonable share of the teams passing TDs the past two years.

                As a freshman he was a starting WR opposite Reuben Randle and had 41 catches – no mean feat for a freshman WR in the SEC.

                “7 of those TD’s game in 3 games against UAB, Furman, and Towson.”

                Yep, he sure did pick on bad competition. Of course, good players should be picking apart bad competition… so, on a team that had 35 passing TDs the past two seasons, he accounted for 12 (34%). Taking away the 7 he picked up in 3 games he accounted for 5 of 28 (18%). Still an ok % for a guy that isn’t much of a red zone guy.

              8. 5 of those 8 this season were against UAB and Towson. Bad competition, and once again very similar to Jenkins.

              9. That is just his TDs. His receiving totals were pretty good against top competition, when you take out the games he barely played due to injury. And unlike Jenkins, they didn’t try to force feed him the ball.

              10. “That is just his TDs.”

                Those are kind of important.

                “His receiving totals were pretty good against top competition”

                As I said above, Georgia and Auburn were in the bottom 1/3 of the SEC in pass defense.

                “And unlike Jenkins, they didn’t try to force feed him the ball.”

                No they didn’t, and it makes sense considering Landry was the one who could actually put the ball in the end zone against decent opponents.

              11. Yeah, TDs are important, but not every player is going to be a TD machine. If a player helps getting your team into a position to score TDs, then that is also very important.

                When DeSean Jackson was available he was just the ingredient this team needed (according to you). He has scored 32 TDs in 87 games. That is just better than 3 games per TD. Last season he scored 9 TDs, a great return for him. In the 3 preceding seasons he scored just 12 TDs in total… in 40 games. Almost 4 games per TD.

                Antonio Brown is a pretty darn good receiver. Yet he’s only scored 15 TDs on 54 games – around 1 TD every 3.5 games.

                Common thread? These guys are big play guys, but don’t necessarily rack up big TD numbers. They aren’t great red zone threats. Their contribution comes from opening up the field, being a threat to make a play from any part of the field.

                Beckham scored 12 TDs in 37 games. Around 1 in every 3 games. On a team that didn’t score many TDs through the air. Landry was the go to guy for 3rd down conversions or in the red zone. Yes, it made sense, because that is the type of receiver he is. Put the square pegs in the square holes. Beckham was the deep threat and played a big role in opening up routes for Landry and other players, and keeping D’s honest instead of stacking the box to stuff the run. Just the type of player the 49ers need.

              12. If Beckham could catch 8 or 9 TDs in a season he’d be worth a first round pick, but he couldn’t even do that in the SEC.

                The 49ers need speed on offense, but they don’t need to spend their first round pick on a speed receiver who has to ride the bench in the red zone.

              13. DeSean Jackson and Antonio Brown are good comparisons. One was taken in the 2nd round at pick #49, and the other was taken in the 6th round at pick #195.

                Taking Beckham in the first round is a mistake, trading up to take Beckham is a disaster.

              14. The number next to each name is the TD/Rec ratio. 1 TD for every X number of reception. These are from 2013. Lower is better.

                Watkins 8.4
                Evans 5.75 (Like a true X receiver should!)
                Beckham 7.5
                Cooks 8
                Lee 14.25
                Benjamin 3.6

                Aside from Kelvin’s insane 3.6 Beckham’s numbers indicate his TD production is on par with his peers.

              15. Coffee,

                For me at least it’s not about the catch to TD ratio, or even the total number. It’s about who they came against. Beckham, like Jenkins, got fat on weak competition. 6 of his 8 TD’s in 2013 came against UAB, Kent St, and Furman.

              16. Riddle me this then, why is Jarvis Landry from the same team who scored more TD’s not rated as high?

              17. “why is Jarvis Landry from the same team who scored more TD’s not rated as high?” He had a 4.77 40 time.

              18. I was trying to suggest that the slower guy had more TD’s then the better player because of scheme inside the redzone and not because one guy was better at making TD’s then the other.

              19. Good article from Bob McGinn who polls NFL personnel guys and then ranks the players. Beckham is the 3rd rated guy by the NFL people polled and not far behind Evans.

                http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/rating-the-nfl-draft-prospects-wide-receivers-and-tight-ends-b99258025z1-257423561.html

                This idea that a player of similar height and build to Jenkins is the same type or caliber of player is ridiculous. You have to look at the individual and what his temperament is like, his work ethic, compete level etc. The problem with Jenkins was not physical so much as it was mental. He wasn’t aggressive, he wasn’t competitive and didn’t work all that hard to better himself as it turned out. Beckham is not Jenkins. I don’t know how good he’ll be but you can’t determine a players value by looking at a previous pick who didn’t work out. You also can’t decide what a player is capable of based on the way a previous Coaching staff decided to use him. You look at the talent and how he can be incorporated into your system and base your decision on that.

                Beckham is exactly the type of player most of us agreed the Niners were missing. A fast, sudden, stretch the field type of WR who can open things up for the others. He is also an excellent return man which we also might be in the market for if LMJ is sent somewhere.

                I’d be fine with drafting Beckham. He fits a need, and there is nothing stopping the Niners from taking another WR later who is bigger and might be a better RZ weapon.

              20. Beckham caught 2 TD passes in 26 games against SEC opponents. Not worth a first-round pick.

              21. Yea yea and aren’t you also the guy who says Calvin Johnson isn’t an X receiver just because once and awhile he might line up somewhere else other then split out? That’s crazy talk.

              22. “A fast, sudden, stretch the field type of WR who can open things up for the others.”

                They can get that later in the draft.

              23. It’s actually 3 touchdowns. He scored 1 against Kentucky his freshman year.

              24. Beckham caught 2 TD passes in 26 games against SEC opponents. Not worth a first-round pick.

                You can’t let the offense affect your view of the player Grant. LSU didn’t have a decent caliber passing offense until Cameron came in last year.

                What I’m looking at is the talent he has that fits what this team needs, and the fit is pretty much exactly what we’ve all said they needed.

                He’s thought of very highly by the guys who do this for a living with no mention of the lack of TD production. That should tell you how to look at the player as an individual and not as a part of an offense he won’t be playing in as a pro.

                There is nothing similar to Jenkins here other than size and speed. Jenkins was considered by most to be a 2nd round prospect and was well down the overall list in terms of WR’s. In contrast Beckham is highly thought of, played against some elite competition and has produced the type of big plays the Niners lack. His return skills are icing on the cake.

              25. “He’s thought of very highly by the guys who do this for a living”

                Sure he is.

                The 49ers thought very highly of Jenkins too, and last time I checked they do this for a living. They have been proven to be wrong from time to time. Heck, they even admit it.

              26. Everybody’s wrong about 50% of the time Jack, that wasn’t the point. What I was referring to is the article I posted which polled 17 NFL Personnel people who ranked Beckham slightly behind Evans for 3rd best WR prospect in the draft. That was not the case with Jenkins who was not nearly as highly thought of prior to his draft year.

              27. Well, regardless of how you think the post season process should influence draft position, all I know is every expert now seems to agree he is worthy of a first round pick, around that 15 to 20 area.

                The main knocks I’ve seen on him are regarding his size, his production against “top” competition, or his red zone production. I’ve yet to see anyone knock him based on what they’ve seen on film. No surprise. When you watch him on film he jumps out as a quality player.

              28. “I’ve yet to see anyone knock him based on what they’ve seen on film. No surprise. When you watch him on film he jumps out as a quality player.”

                Go back and watch the TCU game. Beckham does absolutely nothing special in that game when matched up against Verrett, a fellow first round prospect this season. Instead all of the big plays come against #25, Kevin White.

                Beckham makes some explosive plays in the return game, but I’m not wasting a first round pick on a kick returner.

                http://draftbreakdown.com/video/odell-beckham-jr-vs-tcu-2013/

              29. Yep, I’ve watched that film too. Beckham actually plays pretty well. It shouldn’t come as any surprise that LSU didn’t throw it often Verrett’s way – he was easily their best defender. That’s just smart, and exactly what a pro-style offense does, find the right match-ups.

  17. Wilson with Play Action – 58.7% completion 13TD/3int, Without Play Action – 65.5% 13TD/6int
    Kapernick w/Play Action – 61.3% completion 11TD/1int, Without Play Action – 57.2% 10TD/7int

    What I found interesting when looking at these numbers was the 49ers actually used less play action this season compared to last, even though Kaepernick was clearly better. A couple reasons for this could be the ability to hit Davis off shot plays with play action. Also the 49ers were very heavy with 11 personnel and passing on third down, thus telegraphing their play calls a bit. Something that they should be looking at this offseason.

    1. Another factor may be that Ault used a play action quite a bit in Nevada’s passing game. Kap is comfortable with, and good at, play action.

      1. Duh! Why would anyone expect Kaepernick to have glorious stats inside the pocket, when he never operated in a traditional pro offense throughout his career?

          1. I do not control where the comment ends up, and I don’t have that problem. Getting kind of personal aren’t you?

            1. “I do not control where the comment ends up”

              It’s not that hard to hit the reply button on the correct thread. As for getting personal, you’re funny.

              1. No it’s not, hell even you can do it, but your comments must be special since you’ve never had the blog gremlin grab it and position it somewhere not intended……

  18. Grant,
    You’re becoming a one trick pony – bash CK and JH whenever you can. I thought you had a much higher ceiling than that.

          1. The success the 49ers have enjoyed since Harbaugh and his merry men arrived is what fires me up…..I’m ready for the draft. I’m ready for camp, and I’m ready to start taking down any team that stands in the way of regaining the NFC Championship.

            1. “I’m ready to start taking down any team that stands in the way of regaining the NFC Championship.”

              Which position do you play?

              1. For a stat worshiper, you sure can be a dull bulb in the chandelier. My position is die hard fan. One of many in this great country of ours that cheers for their team, in an attempt to provide that little extra karma for victory. What position do you play? Instigator?

              2. I think Razor’s talking fan-speak….you know when you actually like a team and root for them to succeed…

                I wouldn’t expect you to understand Jack.

              3. He must be the most boring person to watch a game with….probably watches the game with a calculator and notepad handy instead of a beer and nachos.

              4. I am very boring to watch it with, and you’re right, I do watch it with a notepad. No calculator though. I actually chart every formation grouping they use and the results.

              5. I don’t know how he watches the game, but if Jack’s sober and you’re drinking, that might explain why his observations tend to be more accurate than yours.

              6. that makes sense claude….we must all be drunk and you, grant, and jack must be the only sober fans left…

                oh and don’t forget Superbowl monkey

              7. Oh, I’ll drink a couple when I’m watching the game, but I try not draw any firm conclusions.

                I’m just poking you for the suggestion that one has to drink to have fun watching the game.

              8. Oh, and I wouldn’t be so sure that Superbowl monkey isn’t drunk when he/she posts comments. That’s how they read to me.

              9. I know its all in fun….I hope no offenses were taken here today….at the end of the day we all share one common goal…world peace…. after the niners win their 6th of course.

                I love you guys :'(

          1. And which side is that? That the Niners are a crap team with crap players because certain cherry-picked stats drilled down to the nth degree tell us so?

      1. Jack my problem with Grant’s latest posts is not because i totally disagree with Grants point. Is CK an elite QB i’m not sure because i have no clue what his definition of elite is. the way i would describe elite is equal to Brady, P. Manning, Montana, Rogers, Fouts etc. at there best. So no he is not elite yet. My problem with Grants post is i think he is beating a dead horse, he is belaboring the point and it has become a bore. Yes grant you made your point now move on. I may be a bit of a homer but i feel comfortable criticizing 9er players who i think are not doing their jobs. We all know that Grant believes alot of the blame in the SB and last years NFCCG goes to CK and it is arguable but its just getting freaking old. Lets move on

        1. Old Coach has been on fire, echoing my sentiments at least. Officer Hammer is happy, because he likes to get, as he puts it, those “fanboys” fired up…..

              1. And if I had my Sherlock Holmes hat on, I’d say that you are still a big A’s fan and wear it proudly.

              2. If I had my Dr. Phil hat on, I’d say I struck a nerve. I like a good bonfire as much as the next guy….

              3. No need to get defensive again Officer Hammer. After all, psychodynamic theory is proven…..

        2. Coach,

          For the most part the month of April was pretty much a Kaepernick free zone when it came to post topics.

          1. I do’nt know maybe i’m just getting cranky. The end of the school year does that to me.

            1. My wife is a teacher like you and the same thing happens to her. Summer can’t get here fast enough. ; )

              1. I like schoolteachers, if you do something wrong, they make you do it over again.

            2. I substantiate your feelings, and I am not cranky. I tend to look at the bigger picture when the dust settles and you’re left with reality. I am a proud member of the API, so I would never beat a dead horse, let alone a live one. I’m happy with Kaepernick, and I look forward to him leading this team back to the playoffs…..

            3. Kaepernick’s outside-the-pocket numbers are extremely encouraging. The 49ers should embrace that and move the pocket for him more often.

              Kaepernick needs to improve his TD percentage from the pocket. That means he needs better field vision and anticipation, especially in the red zone.

              1. When you were putting the numbers together were the outside-the-pocket numbers based only off plays that were designed to get him outside?

              2. >The 49ers should embrace that

                Why? You yourself are on record that Super Bowls are won from the pocket “Without exception.”

                Niners appreciate your (previous) take and are trying to develop his pocket game. There are obvious growing pains, as there would be with any 2nd year starter.

  19. Grant Cohn
    April 30, 2014 at 10:56 am

    “I’m not a Kaepernick hater, I just think he isn’t elite. You don’t give a QB Aaron Rodgers money if that QB has a 6/5 TD/INT ratio in the pocket.”

    Well rocket, there’s your motivation (lol).

    1. Like I needed any AES ;)

      I don’t disagree with him on this honestly. Kap isn’t elite yet and I’ve said all along he needs to improve. My arguments are in regards to the expectations people have of him and the apathetic attitude shown toward what he has accomplished in a very short time.

      I wouldn’t be defending him if he was putting up Mark Sanchez numbers and winning 8 games. I defend him because he has exceeded my expectations and the improvements he’s made in such a short time give me reason to believe we have something special here.

      1. I hear you Rocket.

        I can’t wait to see what he can do with a healthy Crabs, Davis, Boldin, and hopeful high draft pick for an entire year. Not to mention Lattimore making his debut.

        To ignore what Kap was able to accomplish with all we had going against us last season would be a mistake.

  20. Does this nonsense of “elite QB” have any more relevance today than it did when the same thing was argued back and forth ad nauseam about Alex Smith?

        1. I’m sorry. 13. That’s a low number when you consider the number of comments, and not really what this post was about.

      1. The sky is falling!Officer Hammer does not have the exact stat on the term “elite QB” being brought up. What is the world coming to?

    1. Ribico

      Nope…nada… zero… zilch…kaputy…none whatsoever…no such a thing as an “elite QB”

  21. He’s not elite. That’s troubling and certainly not elite. Look at these numbers, what jumps out at you? HE’S NOT AN ELITE QUARTERBACK AND DOES NOT DESERVE AARON RODGERS MONEY!!!!!!!!!!!

    1. I’d be happy with that – but as per usual if it starts early I probably won’t be able to participate unless I get a team picking late on.

  22. Call me a homer, but I for one am appreciative of Grant taking the time to put these stats together, and I would be interested in seeing Alex Smith’s and Cam Newton’s numbers if you have the time and inclination to review the film of those guys too Grant. This would have taken quite a lot of time, and regardless of whether you believe there is an agenda behind it or not it is still interesting.

    For me it simply gives more credence to the idea that Kaep is at his best on the move. Not exactly a news flash, but still good to have some numbers to confirm it. It also lends credence to the idea Kaep still has work to do on improving his game inside the pocket. Again, not a news flash, but good to have the numbers to back it up.

    1. “Not exactly a news flash”, “Again, not a news flash” has got to be the understatements of the day….

  23. Titans aren’t picking up Locker’s 5th year; in anticipation of the emergence of Tyler Wilson no doubt.

  24. Is it me or is everyone cranky today, arguing over little things we would normally shine on?

    Maybe the extra long wait for the draft is driving many here a wee bit nuts. This time last year we were all having fun trying to figure out who will make it, who will bust, and how the new guys fit into the 49ers system.

    1. The drawn out period between start of free agency and the draft this year has definitely been a negative. Lets face it, if the draft had been conducted as per normal then Grant wouldn’t have done this film work right now, and as you say we’d all be focused on our new shiny toys.

      I think you are also correct about why everyone is jumping down Grant’s throat about this data. Too much waiting and a dearth of 49er related news may be making some fans left wanting more – something new to discuss. Problem is, there isn’t much new to talk about. So when entries like this come up people complain about ‘going to the well’ too many times.

      1. Scooter, B2W
        For my part, I’m not cranky or jumping on Grant as much as being frustrated with the same old broken record (and re-mix after re-mix) about Kaep’ shortcomings and how they compare to other QB’ (Alex Smith with Wilson being the primary example).

        It sometimes seems commonplace that when there is a slow day at the office the best way to generate attention is to throw out the Kaep card.
        I mean how many times do we need to read that Wilson is better than Kaep?
        Does the old adage ‘beating a dead horse’ mean anything around here?

        At least next weeks draft should bring some refreshing relief.

        BTW, in all fairness, I must give Grant (and I did) very high marks for his outstanding reads over the weekend.

      2. Scooter, I agee with you and others who have stated pretty much the same thing about this off-season being so drawn out and making some a bit cranky. Seems it was a bit more fun around here the same time last year. So I have to give Grant some kudos for trying to keep some diaglogue going between we 49er fans when we’ve pretty much done the mock draft thing, the bad boys of the 49ers thing, the QB controversy thing — all of which have become redundant
        subjects and discussions. It makes it hard to continue to make comment on those subjects again and again — at least for myself. Though I remain an avid reader of this blog, it has really affected how often I want to participate.

        The draft, mini-camps and OTA’s can’t come fast enough!

  25. weird. even if you feel like Grant is beating a dead horse, why are you all so butt hurt about this one? these last 2 posts were productive.

    we surprisingly learned Wilson is actually the opposite of Kaep (disproving the idea that an outside the pocket QB won a Super Bowl)…

    assuming Grant follows up on this after next season, we now have #’s to see whether and by how much Kaep improves from the pocket this year vs last… which he should do (regardless of whether he really improves) given a healthy Crabtree, Boldin and Davis.

    Grant was able to somewhat justify his belief that the staff should be moving the pocket more often; in order to justify it, he’d have to show that these #’s also hold true on designed roll outs. obviously, diminishing returns are also a factor, but (assuming the #’s hold true on designed roll outs) there’s no evidence showing that they’ve got to that point.

    in light of the recent rumblings that they’re going to “throw the farm” at Kaep, it’s relevant in providing evidence that the 49ers may be making a mistake by paying him top 5 QB money. if it were me, in light of these #’s, i’d wait to see if he can at least get his td:int to 2:1 (but 3:1 should be the std) from the pocket before shelling out a new contract. it’s not like it’s able to go up much more no matter how good he does since he’d already be top 5.

  26. I guess I don’t need numbers to prove Kaep’ flaws they were on display throughout the season.

    And unless Grant sits in on CK’ negotiations unlike you it doesn’t matter what his or my thoughts are regarding the monies brought to the table.
    This will have a resolution without us.

    On to the draft!

    1. AES,

      Yep at the end of the day we have no bearing on what happens. The team wants to resign him so we’ll see where it goes.

  27. One thing I know for sure is that we should avoid Evans at all cost. I haven’t been this excited about a WR prospect since Braylon Edwards…

    1. C4C,
      What are your qualms regarding Evans?

      I’ve always felt that he did not receive enough credit for helping make Manziel look good.

  28. What’s more likely; Radio City Music Hall thinks that their Easter event is a better choice then the NFL draft and forces the NFL to delay it -or- the NFL is full of kimshi and they honestly thought it would be better doing this mofo two weeks later?

    1. Cfc,

      The ownership of Radio City is the same that owns the Knicks. Putting the word “thinks” in same sentance with them is never done within the 5 NYC boros. This has to be a NFL deal through and through.

    2. No way Radio City would force the NFL out of the dates they wanted. That is complete crap from the league to disguise the fact they wanted to push it back to keep the NFL in the forefront for a longer portion of the offseason, if that is even possible considering they are still the most talked about sport no matter what time of year it is.

    3. Third week of April was always hard to make it to to begin with. When it was first brought up I don’t remember it being a schedule conflict but an attempt to shorten the time between the draft and the start of TC. It’s only made waiting for the draft worse and two weeks doesn’t make up for the month of complete nothingness that is July so why bother.

  29. The first disc of season 1 of Justified will roll in on Monday. Anyone watching Fargo? I haven’t checked it out yet but I’ll record episode 1 this Saturday when it replays and probably see if it’s any fun or not.

    MM showing while it’s still the best show on t.v.
    GoT could be on 52 weeks a year and it would never get old or run out of new characters to introduce each episode.

  30. Back to Jarvis Landry-Combine 4.65-proday 4.51. Anquan Boldin 4.72 combine 40 and a 4.59 proday.E Branch recently wrote an article comparing the two and although I’m not a pro when I look at the film I see the validity of the comparison.I’m a Moncrief in the second homer,but if they choose Landry as an understudy to Anquan I’m in no prob.

    1. Landry is a baller. Very good player who will be better than where he’s drafted imo.

  31. Looking at the draft board I’m thinking they’ll be an early run on WRs and choices would be somewhat limited even at #17. Jets have juice to go higher to get their guy (could be CB but prob WR.) The cost to move up high enough to get Evans or even Beckham seems too much for SF. Who else do they like? Chiefs and Panthers lurking if they don’t move up.

  32. Matt Barrows has revealed his annual draft crush……Cody Latimer. Now i’m one of those who believes that the 9ers will\should draft a CB but if they do draft a WR at #30 i think Latimer will be an excellent choice.

  33. Hearing Baalke describe Jerry Rice over at csnbayarea sort of reminds me of Marqise Lee. Did not blow anyone away with his combine 40 yrd dash, but you don’t remember seeing anybody catch him from behind.

    Baalke never mentioned M.Lee (that’s my take). He did however speak about Brandin Cook who could very well be front-n-center on the 40ers radar.

    I still like Lee as the second best WR in the draft (after S.Watkins). I believe his college numbers speak for themselves.
    Perhaps we take a CB with our 1st pick and then take Lee with our 2nd. That prospect alone could make for a very successful and productive 2014 draft imo.

    1. AES,

      I agree too. Lee is a top half of round one talent who is being undervalued based on an injury plagued season and below average QB play. There is also the USC WR stigma being attached to him. It’s really crazy how so many people want to label players based on where they went to school or their height and weight etc. Every player is different; you can’t follow a one size fits all mindset.

  34. I would agree. He’s fast and possesses good balance. Good separation on film along with 23 Reps on the bench tells me he has a chance to be successful against guys like Sherman.

  35. “They’re good questions, and I’m struggling myself internally with the Bridgewater thing,” Mayock said. “I’ve always believed that the tape tells everything, so I’m struggling with this because I liked him on tape . . . then I saw him throw live and I didn’t like him at all.”

    According to Mayock, this was not your ordinary mediocre Pro Day. It was a Pro Day that calls into question everything that went before it.

    “I struggle, tape vs. live, and I think a bunch of teams feel the same way,” Mayock said. “I’ve talked to teams that have been unnerved by it.”

    1. How many DeSean Jackson’s and Antonio Brown’s do teams find later in the draft? What % out of the many similar type of players that are drafted? Which is they guy the 49ers should get to fill this role later in the draft this year?

      More pertinent questions – in a draft do-over, where would these guys be drafted? I’ve heard a lot of people lamenting the 49ers didn’t take Jackson in the first that year.

      Not taking Beckham because history shows you can get lucky taking a similar player in a later round is ridiculous. You can say the same for every position. But what this really highlights is how the NFL has a tendency to overlook smaller WRs due to a love affair with big guys.

      1. Yep, I agree Scooter. Basing a draft decision on a player being similar in size to another or because there are examples of getting players later is a bad way to do business.

      2. “Not taking Beckham because history shows you can get lucky taking a similar player in a later round is ridiculous.”

        It’s not only that they can get someone similar later, it’s that I don’t believe he is worthy of a first round pick.

        1. Well, all I can say is I understand your concerns, and they aren’t without merit. All prospects come with some concerns, and I feel the good things he shows and has done outweigh those potential concerns. But I can understand why you and Grant feel the way you do about Beckham as well.

          1. The 8 reps on the bench is a red flag for me. Evans would make more sense if they aim to add an immediate difference maker, while at the same time preparing for Mr. Crabs departure. Red Zone issue solved immediately…..

            1. I guess it depends on what you consider the biggest need on offense. For mine it is a guy that has the speed and ability to get deep to make defenses keep the safeties out of the box. Evans can do that to a degree based on his size, but I think most D’s would back their safeties to get across and help if needed against him. A guy like Beckham puts more strain on the safeties as they have less capacity to get across and help if they aren’t already cheating to that side.

              I fall in the category of fan that believes we have pretty good red zone targets already on the roster. The issue is more about how we use them. Getting Evans will just encourage even more use of the fade route.

              1. Just seems wrong to spend a first-round pick on a receiver you’d be better off benching in the red zone.

              2. Does Desean Jackson get benched in the red zone? Antonio Brown? Even if they don’t catch the TDs, doesn’t mean they can’t help you score one.

              3. DeSean Jackson caught three TDs in the red zone last season. Odell Beckham caught two TDs in the red zone in 39 college games.

              4. I just think the potential chemistry from a production standpoint of Kaepernick to Evans, is a risk worth trading up for. More so than OBJr.

              5. Razor,

                You wouldn’t be hesitant to give up the picks it would take to move up for him? Keep in mind this is being called the best draft in a decade or more and the Niners are in position to hit the motherlode.

              6. He’d be the #3 right now, but could be #1 as soon as next season. I’d rather draft somebody and have him learn for a year anyway.

              7. You are right Grant – Jackson caught 3 TDs in the red zone last season in an offense built around using speed.

                Beckham only scored 2 red zone TDs in an offense built around the ground and pound. You don’t think he has any potential to score TDs in the red zone in a different type of offense?

              8. The 49ers’ offense is built around the ground and pound, too. Beckham caught one red zone TD in 26 SEC games. That does not bode well for his pro career.

              9. @Rocket on cost of moving up to say pick 8 with Minnesota. #30, #61, 2015’s second round pick, and #94 would get it done. You would still have 8 picks, 56/77/100/129/170/242/243/245 with which to work with….

            2. Who’s to say he doesn’t become a red zone weapon in this offense? You’ve seen what LSU does with him; not what the Niners would do with him. We know he’s got the skills and speed to give them what pretty much everyone thinks they are missing, so I don’t see an issue here. They can add a bigger WR later as well if the idea is to develop a guy who can box out in the endzone.

              1. You don’t spend a first-round pick on a receiver because he’d be a good fit as the No.3 receiver right now.

              2. Grant is right. You have a chance to get a guy like Evans, who has the potential to be a number one receiver. He can grow with Kaepernick and provide a huge target for him to throw the football downfield….

              3. Yep – he wouldn’t be a #1 this year. No receiver they draft would be. But he’d be drafted to be a starter in a year or two.

                Razor, I think Beckham is a better receiver than Evans, so I wouldn’t trade up to the top 10 for Evans.

                Beckham is exactly the type of receiver Baalke wanted in 2012. He sees a future for that type of receiver in this offense.

              4. When I look at what Manziel did with Evans, I begin to salivate when I think about what Kaepernick could do with him…..

              5. Trade up for a corner. The second and third tier of wide receiver prospects is way better than the second and third tier of cornerback prospects in this draft. Wide receiver is the deepest position in the draft.

              6. A lot better value than Mr. Crabs will be in 2015…..Meanwhile this year, which number three corner is going to match up well against Evans?

              7. Since Evans is an X he’ll be played mostly on the outside so my guess is that Culliver or Brock would cover him.

              8. Grant, Baalke may not agree with you. I believe he said the cornerback position was very deep. Besides, their secondary coach is much better than their wide receivers coach…..

              9. The best of the WR group are better than the best of the CB group.

                I’m a big believer of taking the best of the stronger group and a 2nd or 3rd tier guy in the weaker group (so long as that group isn’t really weak) rather than the best of the weaker group and a 2nd or 3rd tier guy in the stronger group. Get the elite talent where you can.

                Not many (if any) elite CB prospects in this draft class. But you can find good and serviceable players in the 2nd/ 3rd tier of CBs.

              10. I’m also a big believer in surrounding your young QB with as many weapons as possible.

    2. The Jets have the 18th pick not Pittsburgh. I disagree with you but we are all entitled to our opinion.

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