Sizing up Chip Kelly and his 49ers experiments

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  1. Kelly needs to incorporate a methodical mode for his offense. Not only should he use it to run out the clock and keep his defense fresh, but as a change up to keep the defense thinking. Thinking can lead to hesitation, which helps the offense….

    1. Serious question… our offense was basically three and out all last season and the seasons before Harbaugh took over (and even then…), so if its that way next season, but we’re actually scoring touchdowns occasionally, what’s the difference for the defense? Its the same, right? I dont see how this criticism affects Kelly all things considered.

      1. A2DF

        Very well spoken….IMHO, it’s merely another chunk of the sky falling…at this time of the year, with no real direction from the the EXPERTS, (Grant, Maiocco, etc.) posters begin throwing around suspicions and scenarios to attempt to ‘stir things up’. As you so artfully said …it doesn’t affect Kelly at all….

      2. Depends what % of plays the D is on the field for.

        In 2015, the 9ers D was on the field 62% of the time (387 snaps). Past 3 seasons, Eagles’ games averaged 835 plays a year.

        That would mean the D would have to play about 517 snaps in 2016. That’s a lot more wear and tear (especially towards the end of the season) and chances for injuries.

        While we all hope the offense will improve, there is no guarantee it will. Even assuming it does, we don’t know by how much.

        Although on the plus side, even if Kelly fails, the next coach will inherit a young defensive group that has a ton of experience given no catastrophic injuries or absolute unplayable suck.

    1. I agree. This is what I’ve been saying, doomsayers notwithstanding, there are at least 7reasons the 49ers will win most of their games (8-8 at the very least, but more like 10-6):
      1. The horrible O Line will be much, much better with new blood.
      2. The QB situation will be much improved, be it Kap or Gab.
      3. The D-Line will be much improved with new blood.
      4. The secondary will be much improved with new blood
      5. The running game with Carlos Hyde (remember how well he started out before the injury?) will be much improved.
      6. And, the coaching (except for the D Line ocaching) will be much, much improved with new blood.
      7.Some of our losses last year were heart-breaking close calls that could have gone either way.

      1. Whoa, 8 or 9 wins? Have you looked at our schedule? Need to stop smoking your breakfast! 4 wins maybe. Still huge holes in both lines

        1. They bumbled their way to 5 wins with Tom-fool-ya, Geepsus Chryst, a DJ and Mangina. I figure Chip and his staff are worth 3 more wins….

          1. Here is where we disagree.
            We are constantly laying the blame at the feet of the coaching staff without considering the fact that they took over an 8-8 team that lost 9 starters, 5 of which were pro-bowlers or borderline pro-bowlers.
            Honestly, the only team the 49ers beat that didn’t have a more talented roster was Baltimore.

        2. Why do people keep saying have you seen our schedule? Wasn’t the Super Bowl suppose to include the Hawks and Colts? Way to much respect is given the schedule. This ain’t the 2015 49ers

          1. The schedule matters a lot more when you are a bad team. Short weeks and Cross Country trips rob teams of energy and Practice days. So if you are already facing an opponent with superior talent the coaches have less time to make adjustments to counter the talent deficit and the team will have less energy.
            There is a reason bookies take into account cross country trips and short weeks just as they do home field advantage.

        3. So, you’re saying they will be worse than the 6-10 team last season? Even though the OL is much improved? The secondary is much improved? The D Line is much improved? The running game (hello Carlis) is much improved. The coaching is much improved? With the lone possible exception of special teams, the team seems greatly improved with new blood everywhere. Are you just enjoying your negative synicism or does your assessment have reasons backed by analysis?

          1. “So, you’re saying they will be worse than the 6-10 team last season?” No, but I am saying there record will be the same or worse.

            “Even though the OL is much improved?”
            How are they much improved? They lost Boone their second best olineman and still have a huge hole at RT? Joshua is an unknown who has yet to prove he can be an effective zone blocker Zane was one of the lower ranked guards in the NFL.

            “The secondary is much improved?” Based upon what? Who did they get that made this unit much improved?

            “The D Line is much improved”
            Once again based upon what? Buckner is not likely to even start this year… so this should mostly be made up of the same players. I would expect some improvement but not a huge amount.

            “The running game (hello Carlis) is much improved.”
            Based upon having Carlos Hyde and a bunch of cast offs?Addition by subtraction… no Bush or Hayne?

            “Are you just enjoying your negative synicism or does your assessment have reasons backed by analysis?” No, I dont enjoy it and yes, my assessment is based upon the fact that these units were not good last year and largely remain unchanged or are unproven.

  2. Chip Kelly should possibly employ these 4 tactics and strategies.

    1. Chip should have the team line up in a set basic scheme, and either run or pass out of it. This way, the offense does not need to worry if they are lined up correctly, so they can get to the line quickly and fire off the snap. It will not allow the defense to substitute, and they will have to line up and be ready for the snap. Chip should then vary the snap count so the defense will be tensed up for many seconds, while the offense will only get keyed up just before the snap, which will be predetermined before the series. The Zone Read option is a good example of having a formation that one can either run or pass out of.

    2. Chip should tell Hyde that the defenders will call him scared if he runs out of bounds. He should expect such taunts, but play it smart and do not stay in bounds so they can gang tackle him. Hyde should not struggle while in the grasp of a defender, but just go down so another defender cannot get a running start to lay the wood on him. The most important thing is for Hyde to stay healthy. Allowing the defense to hit him many times is counter productive.

    3. The last few seasons, when the Niners were fortunate to have a second and short situation, they would just run the ball into a defense that is keyed up to stop the run. Chip should employ the play action pass, and take a shot downfield. Even if it fails, they still will have third and short. The cost benefit analysis will show that being bold will pay dividends, compared to being timid and failing to get a first down, like so many times last year.

    4. Chip should be rotating the defenders constantly. This will help them to eventually find the best line up, but also keep the defenders fresh. Maybe use the tag team approach, alternating between series. It will allow players to gain game time experience, so if a player does go down, the backup will not have to be unfamiliar with playing.

  3. I don’t think with the lack of Pass Blocking, terrible to at best Mediocre Quarterbacking, and worst in the league pass catching threats that the 49ers will be winners this year.

    At best I see 4 wins.

    I’m just hoping Cleveland gets more.

    What I do hope is for once and for all the 49ers see who can play and who can’t so this off season we can get rid of the Quinton Patton’s who “have potential” but it never shows up on the field.

    Time to separate the wheat from the Chaff this season.

  4. I wonder what Kelly’s turnover rates are relative to total snaps?

    As for the defense… Rotation, rotation, rotation! That’s what I’m hoping for anyway. Especially if Williams and Dorsey return at some point.

    1. For his 3 years in Philly, Kelly’s offense had a turnover for every 38.2 plays it ran.

      Here are the individual year numbers in turnovers to plays run:
      2013 1:55.5

      2014 1:31.3

      2015 1:35.6

      Hopefully we end up closer to his 2013 ratio.

      1. He also had Sanchez, Foles and Bradford as his QBs who, on average, have given more than 1 turnover per game played except 2013 and Foles’ freak season.

        And that’s regardless of the system. WCO — turnovers. Power running — turnovers. Kelly’s offense — turnovers. Traditional Pro-style — Turnovers.

      2. Coffee’s for Closers – Thanks for the turnover stats. Very helpful. I wonder how it compares to league average.

        1. I don’t have the league average but here is what the best in the business looks like:

          Patriots average turnover rate for past 3 seasons: 1:69.4

          Little bit of a difference, huh?

          2013 1:56.9
          2014 1:82.5 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
          2015 1:75

          1. For comparison

            49ers average turnover rate for the past 4 seasons: 1:53.5

            2012 1:60.6
            2013 1:53.4
            2014 1:45.9
            2015 1:57

            1. Threw the 4th year in to show what the SuperBowl season looked like.

              I bet there’s a threshold in this league concerning that ratio. I’d be willing to be that there are certain ratios that define playoff teams and those that aren’t; ex there’s never been a playoff team with a ratio lower then 1:45…this is just an example not throwing out actual data.

              1. CFC – Again, thanks for the info and analysis. Kelly’s system is equal parts exciting and terrifying.

            2. CFC – Great work. Thanks for the information. It does spell a likely increase in TO rates compared to what we have used to since 2011.

              1. Here are the baselines:

                These are their career averages for interceptions per attempts:

                Kaepernick 1:52.3

                Gabbert 1:34

                These are just interceptions not total turnovers for each player.

    2. The Eagles, like every team rotated their defenders. The 49ers actually had more players in the Top-20 (3) for defensive snaps than the Eagles, or any other team in the NFL last year. They were 6th in snaps played.

      There were a few other teams that also had as many as the Eagles in Top-20 snaps played — Oakland, St. Louis & Indianapolis. Even the Saints, Patriots and Broncos had a Top-20 and they were no worse than average in snaps played.

      Of course when you’re going out of your way to trash a coach, there’s nothing better than complete ignorance and spewing disproven cliches, like TOP, to do it.

  5. Grant have you done an analysis between the Eagles and Niners D in terms of athleticism?
    You mention that the 9ers D is younger, does that mean that they are better athletes and got more endurance when they get back on the field. I think that is the key whether Kelly’s D will fold or hold or like Brodie suggests rotation, rotation, rotation.

  6. Be prepared for a lot of jump offsides, motion penalties, and I bet some illegal formations. It will be ugly in the early going. But I also think Chip will rep these guys like never before and they will get better. Fans will need patience but science class lot better than PE class. How Trent/Jed could actually put Jimmy T in a head coaching role is disturbing, about them….what could they not see that even casual fans could see?

  7. Love the fact that Kelly is viewed as and respected as an offensive minded scientist, but sometimes this can be overblown.

    Case in point is the exodus of many key players that moved on or were moved from the eagles because the Kelly experiment created bad chemistry.

    And if Kelly can easily part with players like “Shady” McCoy and D.Jackson, who knows how far he’s willing to go to create the type of players he needs as a fit for his offense.
    If he finds success this coming season I’m sure that Jed and Trent will give Chip a little more autonomy in next years draft.

    Kelly’ offense has to show an improvement over the 2015 offense, period. Even if the new offense sputters out of the starting block, it should show signs of life by the last 4-5 games of the season. And if this happens, then we can expect better things from our team in year two and (as I’ve predicted before) a playoff contender by year three when more pieces to the mix have been added by draft picks and FA’s.

    1. I think the Philly situation..is overblown..Chip can succeed here..because we really have no superstars..A young team eager to learn…impressionable…No egos…Chip can build from ground zero now..Get “his” players.. We haven’t had a headcoach dedicated to scoring….since ….welll ..Really mooch
      Shady and desean are helluva players..but have attitude problems..Well documented…
      Also Goin from Andy Reid’s coaching style to Chip’s…might have turned some people off..A few bad apples spoiled the whole bunch..Im looking forward to this season..I think we’ll do alot better than most people think..Definitely looking forward to the offense bein productive and better than years past

      1. Deezybee

        Good points. no egos, a level field, compete for your position. Chip had to deal with that in Philly …the ‘big’ personalities are going to have to earn their way. Perfect opportunity for young hungry players instead of bench-riding for Harbaugh for two or more years.

    2. AES,

      I agree with you. It’s not a complicated scheme at all, and that is because it has to be simple enough to keep lining up and snapping the ball at high speed. That is why there is very little presnap motion and little to no substituting. It’s all about the tempo, catching the defense off guard and eventually tiring them out. The problem is if the offense struggles they are punting quickly and often and the defense is going to face a high number of snaps. It’s really a sink or swim proposition. If the offense scores and keeps putting first downs together, it can be devastating, but if they don’t, their defense can be in for a long day. That is sometimes the case even when the offense is successful. TOP doesn’t always account for the number of snaps a defense faces and that’s where I’d like to see Kelly ease up on the tempo at times and play to the situation of the game a little more.

      The personnel in SF is a problem though. There is no way anyone can objectively look at what he had in Philly and believe what he has now is comparable in talent. He had Shady his first two years, DJ for the first year, Macklin for the second, Murray last year etc and there was still a drop in production each year he was there. Now he comes to SF where he has question marks at QB, WR and Oline and one RB with high end talent but who hasn’t been able to stay healthy. That’s why I think while the offense will be better than last year, it’s not going to magically morph into a top ten like he had in Philly his first two years. Keep in mind that he didn’t take over a terrible offense in Philly. They had a down season the year before but were only 1 year removed from being a top 5 offense the season before that. He had a lot of talent to work with in Philly until he moved out a number of quality players and wound up costing himself a job.

      Your forecast for the Niners is interesting as well. I keep reading predictions by fans on here of playoffs next year or in a couple of years and I’m wondering how they can come to that conclusion. Looking at this team right now they are coming off a season where they were last or close to last in every major category both offensively and defensively. Of course we can blame last years joke of a Coaching staff for some of that, but there also has to be some questioning of the roster and how much talent there is on it. Right now we don’t have a QB we can say is our long term starter. That is a really big problem. We don’t have many playmakers on offense at any position. The Oline is still an issue and the best player on it is not getting any younger. Defensively the pass rush was abysmal and no major additions were made in that area, at least at OLB. We have 1 ILB who is a proven player but who wasn’t playing at his previous level, and a bunch of mediocre at best depth. The CB position is very young and unproven with a boatload of picks having been used in the previous 3 drafts to try and find capable starters. We are pretty good at S right now though.

      When I look at this team honestly without any fan fueled optimism, I see nothing to suggest the playoffs are on the horizon anytime soon. They are in the infancy of a rebuild with question marks at key positions and no assurance that the young players being relied upon can handle the job. I think playoffs are a long way off and getting to 500 is going to be the goal over the next couple of years.

      1. Rocket,
        You might be right about the slow uphill progress on the team becoming a playoff contender.

        But at some point our draft picks (namely on defense) over the past 2-3 years will mature enough to make some serious noise and I believe that either Gab/Kap can become the QB that has eluded Chip since coming to the NFL.

        Also, I give the team about 3 yrs years to become playoff worthy because by then Kelly’ system should be clockwork for 80% of the players and with the addition of talent through the draft and FA wewe should have a formidable team.

        1. But at some point our draft picks (namely on defense) over the past 2-3 years will mature enough to make some serious noise and I believe that either Gab/Kap can become the QB that has eluded Chip since coming to the NFL

          This is the part that is more hope than substance. It is possible that some of these young players mature and make serious noise as you say, but it’s just as likely that they are more picks to add to the pile of Baalke’s failures. I have little hope that Gabbert is anything more than a place holder, so it comes down to whether Kap can rebound and rediscover his game in this system. If as I suspect, the future at QB is not on this team right now, then the length of the rebuild is extended even longer.

          Looking at this team right now, with what we know about all the people making the decisions and the talent on the team, playoffs are a long way off imo, and won’t even be a consideration until they find some high end talent at key spots.

          1. 9 wins is the magic number. For a young team, striving to get back to that winning culture, 9 is the NFL hump they need to get over. When that happens, a team becomes mentally confident not only in the system, but in themselves and their teammates.They develop a sense of urgency, not only in the way they play on Sundays, but in the way they practice as well….

            1. Steve Young has always maintained that the seven, eight or nine win hump is the hardest to get over. I don’t see any of the potential on defense that Bowman represented in 2010 and delivered in 2011 along with a magic collection of productive free agents and a dynamic Aldon Smith. 2011 was a get over the hump year, but so far I don’t see the ingredients this year or next year.

              1. By the end of the year, I’d be satisfied if I saw an ascending team that finishes with 8 wins….

              2. HT,

                Arik Armstead, Buckner, Lynch, Tartt and Ward. With a reasonable amount of improvement, Harold might become something and Blair could be a useful pass rusher.

                Of course, the Black Cloud Crew, who see only a lack of talent and incompetence could be right, but for me, there is absolutely zero benefit to seeing only bad outcomes.

                The Black Cloud Crew may want to call this delusional thinking, but there is absolutely no downside to seeing the chance for some type of a positive outcome.

                The coming season could be a disaster, but this isn’t a foregone conclusion. That’s why they play the games.

              3. I thought he stated something to the extent that getting from 3 or 4 wins to 8 – 9 wins is easy, but getting from 8 or 9 to 11 is extremely difficult.

                I’ll need to check, but If I remember correctly he was basically stating going from an average team to a contender is exponentially harder than going from bad to average.

              4. Razoreater so would I, but Young’s point is that getting to that level is the easy (?) part.

              5. Shoupbj you have nailed it. 2011 – 2013 will be very difficult to duplicate. I’ve been watching 2011, through game 15 at this point, and the elements that brought that level of success are obvious. Unfortunately the same can be said about the flaws that led to not quit getting to a Superbowl win are also obvious in hind sight.

          2. Rocket,
            I guess that I’ve been around long enough to have seen that stranger things can happen in the world on the NFL.

            The Bill Walsh and the Jimmy Johnson era’s started rocky but once the right players came along they caught lightning in a bottle.
            Not saying that we have the type of talent that those teams had before those head coaches showed up, but after a couple of drafts things quickly changed for the better.

            As fans hope is what keeps us coming back. It’s that hope that makes me look forward to the 2016 season even if the football talkin-heads and our talent pool is shallow.

            Who knows, maybe the Chipper can catch lightning in a bottle and do what Bill Walsh and Jimmy Johnson did over 30 years ago – turn the football world upside down.
            I can only hope.

            1. AES,

              We are in the anything is possible time of the season and I don’t want to ruin your enjoyment so I’ll leave it alone.

              1. Rocket,
                Not to worry my friend, no one can ruin my season. Not even a losing season by my favorite team will ruin it because I just enjoy watching the speed, skill, power and strategy of the game.
                Pre Harbaugh, I really loved watching the warrior Frank Gore run even though we were a poor team.

                I love football and love my team win or lose. I’ve watched this team since the mid 60’s so believe me, I know how to brace myself for a long arduous season and how to ride the wave of a great season.
                I’ll be fine rocket, no matter what pundits say.

              2. AES,

                Good I’m glad to hear that. As much as I hate the direction this team has gone and all the negatives I see, it doesn’t change the fact I’ll be there watching every week and hoping for the best.

                Ex,

                Please tell me we aren’t doing this again. Deja vu from last season.

              3. Rocket,

                Nope, just giving you the business.

                Besides, you know I’m nowhere near as optimistic this year as last, and if you’re trying to remind me how far off I was last year, don’t worry, I remember.

                You are found of saying that your opinions are shaped by the evidence at hand. Fair enough, your projection for the team’s future is definitely within the realm of possibility, but I just don’t see why you would want to follow the team as closely as you do if they really are what you think they are. Why do you spend so much time on something you clearly see as almost completely hopeless?

              4. Ex,

                Simple answer is I love the game and this is my team. Even if I don’t like what the team has done during the offseason, I suspend my thoughts for three hours every Sunday in hopes that they will surprise me. If they don’t it’s not a big deal because I expected it, but if they win it’s a great day. I think it would be worse if I deluded myself into believing they were better than they are and then getting a smack in the head every week when they stink up the field.

            2. Exgolfer

              Absolutely GREAT post…I believe that you also added to the ‘jargon’ with your “Black Cloud Crew” ….Too many reasons to feel good about the niners this year…yeah, we’ll probably lose some, but other than the ’72 Dolphins everyone else has too.

              I believe that ’16 is going to be a fun ride….Go Niners !

            3. Ex,
              I’m on board with you. Its going to be fun watching these young players develop and hopefully 3-4 years from now when some of the these players possibly become pro-bowl’rs we could look back and say we saw them in the development stage of their careers.

              1. AES,

                I’m hoping for a return to playoff contention in 2017. If the 49ers can’t achieve that, then Baalke had better be gone. How much more time to you think TB should get?

    3. Nothing like a bit of scare mongering.

      There was a lot more to why McCoy and Jackson left than ‘Kelly sucks at personnel’ which has been the convenient and lazy narrative. Dawkins, who played for the Eagles and still had a lot of contacts, pointed out in an interview that both Jackson and McCoy were not coachable.

      Each had his own ideas of ‘how things should be’ and wouldn’t buy into the system. And both, being ‘stars,’ decided it was pefectly okay for them to challenge Kelly’s coaching authority.

      Losing Maclin was Roseman’s fault. He was the guy who wouldn’t make the offer Maclin was worth. So they lost him to FA. Murray was Kelly’s fault, mostly for sticking with him as long as he did.

      The rest is just silly. Baalke isn’t giving up personnel control but he’s always listened to his coaches. For example, taylor Mays was a Singletary pick and Kaepernick was a Harbaugh pick after the Bengals stole Andy Dalton from us by moving up.

  8. Unless you’re a genius like Thomas Edison, or Ludwig Van Beethoven and spent a lifetime reading lips or hand signals; realistically NINER FANS, how many plays do you think Kelly will bring into the game using his hand signal offense…C’mon man, start thinking you dolts out there….This article says he carries 15 plays at best into each game, and Vick Fangio, ex-49er DC had Kelly figured and kicked his as-! Below article describes problems with Kelly:

    http://www.csnphilly.com/the700level/new-eagles-regime-highlights-problems-chip-kellys-methods

  9. So far, Chip Kelly looks like he has learned from his mistakes, he has been very good with the press and has said all the right things. Sounds like the players have bought into his system, and Baalke has backed off and stopped micromanaging.

    To his credit, Jed has shut up and basically disappeared, which is a good thing. Worse than a meddlesome GM is clueless owner, so the less we see and hear from Jed, the better. Jed is smart to keep a low profile, and I thank him for that.

    Some may slam me for posting the same things a lot, so here is a totally new idea. Chip should build a relationship with some one in the Bay Area media. I had previously suggested Gary Radnich, who would keep it light yet insightful, or Tom Tolbert, who has good interview skills and can elicit thoughtful answers, but now I think that Rod Brooks should be Chip’s main man to talk to.

    For heaven’s sake, please do not have Murph and Mac do them, because it is too homogeneous, and I expected them to break out in brogue, quaffing a pint of Guinness while spouting malarkey. Rod Brooks will negate the criticism that Chip cannot get along with colored folk. It may be a form of affirmative action, but I would not recommend Brooks unless he was competent and humorous in his own way. Maybe Chip could bounce ideas off Brooks and get his feedback.

    This way, Chip can control the message by controlling the messenger. Rod Brooks previously was a sideline reporter for the Niners, so he does know football. He should jump at the chance to have unfettered access to Chip, and maybe Chip can gain a different perspective by having those one on one conversations talking about the team. I do not know Rod Brooks personally, but listening to him on the radio, I think he would be the perfect choice for Chip, and a PR win-win situation.

    Some may dismiss this idea as a token gesture, but Rod Brooks is a professional, and would do a good job. The Bay Area has a diverse populace, so Chip can help destroy the narrative that he cannot get along with certain players by engaging in a thoughtful, informative and entertaining manner with Rod Brooks.

    1. The vast majority of fans don’t care about diversity. The color of someones flesh in 2016 America is very largely irrelevant. Only pinheads, progressives and the like slobber over this–so they can feel good about themselves.
      What were really dealing with in our fellow human beings can not be seen with the human eye.
      You know them by the fruit they bear. A bullet shot by any ethnicity still hurts like hell

      Sebnoying………

      1. Hmm, I guess all the chatter about Chip and his lack of people skills should just be ignored until it goes away? Too bad that will not happen.

        The Niners, the PR department and Chip Kelly can let it fester, or they can be pro active, and take steps to prevent further problems.

        If the Niners start the season by losing, the chatter and whispers will turn into a fire storm of criticism. This way, at least they can point out one way they are trying to heal old wounds with constructive and positive behavior.

      2. Saw, maybe you should put your pollyannish thinking in the dustheap of history. Racism is alive and well in America, and some of us see that those bullets fired at unarmed black youth do not hurt like hell, they kill, so they cannot feel again.

        You use a straw man argument, but just exposed your inhumanity, and your last comment revealed your true character..

        1. okaaayyyyy, Perfessor.

          Sebnoying, you are so full of yourself, you need to have your cage rattled every now and then.

          Stop being such a racist and look at people as equals. You can only patronize someone for so long.

          Sebnoying.

          1. I see you are my new gadfly. Calling names just makes you look immature and silly. We both know who the real racist is….

              1. O.K, ya got me!!!!!!!!! I want to destroy and take over the whole world!

                How did you know?

  10. Difference between Peterson’s WCO and Kelly’s offense (above source)

    Peterson’s Eagle offense:

    I became impressed by something as simple as the offense using snap counts, as the defense clearly was too judging from how often they jumped offside. Defenders also seem pleased with the idea that a perpetual two-minute drill won’t put their unit back on the field for record numbers of plays once again. Even the head coach halting practice to bark instructions or pulling a player aside for a little one-on-one teaching seemed foreign to me after watching Kelly patrol the field silent, alone for three years.

    1. This season is headed for disaster, with the 49er defense gasping for oxygen–mid 3rd quarter by playing a record # of plays on D this season. Team after team will gash them for big yardage w/o proper rest…Goodby Ballke, Fire Jed.

      1. By the way, Niner fans, offense and defense are hand-in-glove, working together.
        Offense drives the ball allowing the D proper rest on SuperBowl teams.

        In 2014, because of the fast pace with which they ran their offense, the Eagles ran 1127 plays, which was the most in the NFL. In 2015, they ran 1102 plays, which was second-most. Despite that enormous advantage, they were only 12th in yards per game, and only 13th in points per game despite getting an additional seven touchdowns from the Eagles’ defense and special teams.

        http://www.phillyvoice.com/chip-kelly-delusional-about-his-offense-philly/

        1. Bull****. You’re stuck in the 1960s. TOP is vastly over-blown.

          Each NFL play has 6 seconds of athletic effort. The difference in actual time spent ‘in athletic effort’ between the Eagles defense (most snaps in the NFL) and the Seahawks defense (fewest snaps in the NFL) was 20 minutes spread over 16 games.

          That’s the actual difference in athletic effort. Then you look at snap counts and what you find out is that the Eagles, LIKE EVERY OTHER ****ING TEAM IN THE NFL, rotated their personnel. And, surprise!, they got plenty of rest as the team rotated through the depth chart.

          So all your foolish fear mongering and relying on some ignorant article is actually nothing more than relying on an idiotic cliche that needs to die a hot death.

  11. Carlos Hyde, another 49er calling Kap a loner, not a leader:

    On if Colin Kaepernick will be back with team this season:

    I mean he’s there every day with us. I definitely expect him to be with us this year. He’s there grinding every day. I mean, I’m here now working out in the offseason, I see him in the weight room, he’s working out. To me, he’s just a focused guy right now, trying to get himself right so he can show people what he’s capable of.

    http://www.ninersnation.com/2016/6/27/12039726/carlos-hyde-on-colin-kaepernick-preparing-for-learning-chip-kelly-offense

    1. Where in his responses does he call Kap a loner or mention him not being a leader?

      We get it, you’re down on the team and you think they’re going to suck, but enough’s enough. How about taking a break from the negative downer BS for a day or two?

      You’re going to get yourself all constipated.

      1. There is no accountability for Baalke under this regime. Eddie would have fired him 2-3 years ago.

        Thats why people are harping. You do your job as effectively as Baalke, and you are gone.

      2. Bar none

        Tom D is some kind of ‘beagles’ fan who still wants to stickit to Chip I quit reading him a couple of weeks ago….

  12. Today’s fun facts: Chip’s very “Offensive Stats”

    Offense, per drive – 2015 Stat Rank
    Yards per drive 29.86 23
    Points per drive 1.68 22
    Turnovers per drive 0.158 29
    Time of possession per drive 2:07 32

    Above Source by Philly Voice (listed above)

    Jed, do you ever have others beside Baalke look into this, or is the trust factor in your 1st time GM endless?

  13. Odds skewed in favor of 49ers after firing of 1st time Head Coach, Jim Tomsula, and retaining 1st Job a GM, Trent Baalke

    2017 Super Bowl LI Futures Odds Super Bowl Money Odds (Payout Per $100 Bet.)

    San Francisco 49ers +$8,000 (80 to 1)

  14. Reports emerged after the Dallas game that the Cowboys sideline was calling out the Eagles plays before the snap. That’s obviously not good, nor is it some conspiracy or victory for incredibly sophisticated prep work or subterfuge. They were doing that because the Eagles are basically running the same couple of things all game long, and seem surprised when Take a look at this tweet from Smart Football’s Chris Brown from during the game:

    Chris B. Brown
    ‏@smartfootball
    Eagles offense: H-back off the line, inside zone away; tight-end on the line, sweep towards the TE. WRs adjust splits, pass. Rinse, repeat.

    Retweets
    james Light ‏@JamesALight · 20 Sep 2015

    . @smartfootball Sacrifice volume of scheme in order to maintain tempo. But when you can’t generate tempo, the offense looks really simple.

    1. Vince Lombardi’s Green Bay Packers playbook from 1966 essentially had seven basic run plays in it. There were a couple more specialist goal-line things, and passing plays built off each one, but that’s about it. The NFL at that time was about execution — become really, really good at running just a few things and you will punish the opposition over the long-term who won’t execute as well.

  15. The predictability problem

    This theory gained steam when Eagles receiver Josh Huff said that Cowboys defenders were yelling out Eagles playcalls before they happened.

    Kelly came to the NFL with a relatively limited palette of play concepts with different offshoots, and the idea was to implement them with the right kind of play speed and execution. Anyone in the Eagles’ front office who thought they were getting a Bill Walsh-level offensive designer when Kelly was hired? Well, those people were way off-base.

      1. Fan: “I believe that you’re going to restore that power that you once exuded. But God was with you that year and took you all the way, right? You got that power again, and I need you to be disciplined … “
        Kap: “I’ve always had that power.”

        Fan: “You great!”
        Kap: “I know.”

        Such humility…

        1. Kaep was being polite, a humble trait.

          I think he was the opposite of being boastful, arrogant or egotistical.

          You know, humble….

            1. Please, we can parse the meaning into infinity and beyond. You have your definition, and I will have my definition. Dont think either will change each other’s opinion.

              1. You may mock ‘parsing’ words, but it makes for some very difficult conversation if people are speaking a different language.

              2. Look, I watched that video, and to me, in my humble opinion, Kaep looked humble. He did not thrust out his chest and declare that he was the greatest thing since sliced bread, or that he was a lean, mean fighting and winning machine.

                He also looked humble when talking about the Camp Taylor kids. He was NOT arrogant, full of hubris, condescending, petty, vainglorious, boastful, belligerent, bellicose or being a loud obnoxious dipwad. To me, he seemed pretty humble.

              3. He can be a jerk, as so many professional athletes are. But he needs to throw accurately, read defenses, go to other options consistently…………….

                He does not.

              4. Synonyms of humble- Polite, modest, reserved, unpretentious, quiet, obliging, unostentatious, self effacing, deferential and mild.

                Antonyms of humble- Bold, brash, impolite, conceited, uncivil, unmannerly, extroverted, loud, insolent, discourteous, rude, boastful, egotistical and pretentious.

              5. I’m glad you asked, SawBrodie. The dictionary expresses only the basic concept of humility, which is to view yourself in a lowly manner. However, it contrasts the “humble” person’s worldview in terms of other people. That he is “lower” than they are, or “unworthy, timid and insignificant”. The Biblical definition of humility is someone who views themselves lower than God, their creator and therefore believes what God says and is obedient. Jesus became obedient, because he prayed to God three times, asking if there was another way around the prophecy. Jesus humbled himself and was obedient to death.

                Pride, in the middle is “I”, on the left is what we’re used to, PR or “personal reputation”. Pride protects and puffs up personal reputation. On the right, although not as well known, is “false humility”, DE or “devalued estimation”. An occurrence of not submitting to God.

                As the song said, “Oh Lord, it’s hard to be humble when you’re perfect in every way”. Very difficult for the spirit to be humble when the flesh desires fame and glory. Also, it takes quite a bit of work and discipline to be humble and it’s much easier to just wish you were. Another reason, is the world makes you pay a high price for being humble. They say Satan is the father of lies, but not as well known, is that he’s also the godfather of pride. The world hates God’s work, and they don’t like Christians. To them, they are bigoted, narrow minded, foolish and dangerous. Anytime a Christian speaks up, the world reacts violently. You learn to live with persecution by living a Godly life in Christ Jesus, and the truth is no more evident than it is today, all over the world….

        2. Scooter ever talked with someone like that. I say all kinds of things I don’t mean to get out of the conversation. As to CK’s humility not sure this is a great test. Athletes say they’re great all the time. I wouldn’t waste my time arguing this with him. It’s not worth your time.

          1. No, certainly not worth my time, but its a slow news day.

            As usual, since I have contradicted someone else’s praise of how Kaep handled himself it appears the inference is I thought he handled himself like a jerk. Absolutely not. He handled it very well. He was polite and patient, and had a bit of fun with it. Another sign of maturity on his part.

            I just don’t understand why some people are (well, one person is) trying to add other unnecessary and unwarranted adjectives to describe him.

            Actually that’s not true – I know why he is doing it. Its because he believes Kaep needs to be humble for some reason, and because he is a huge Kaep fan every time Kaep handles himself well it is instantly a sign of his humility. What I don’t understand is the need for it. Can’t we just be happy that it appears he is growing and maturing?

            1. I agree 100% with your last sentence.

              I wish we were talking about the O line, or something related to the on field action.

              I surmise that the new O line squad will be Staley, Garnett, Kilgore, Beadles and Theus. Niners will not put 2 rookies on the right side, so Garnett will go to his natural position, and Beadles will help the young rookie on the right.

              1. Theus over Cooper?

                I agree they probably wouldn’t put two rookies next to each other. Will be very interesting to see how the OL shakes out during TC.

              2. I hope that Pears is traded away, so they get something instead of just cutting him. I was amazed that Brown came in out of shape. Maybe that says something about his commitment to football. He also may not be a good fit for Chip’s style of offense.

              3. Cooper is a favorite of mine, but Theus played well in the games that I watched before the draft. I think he is NFL ready, and the coaches had Theus with the first string, not Cooper.

              4. Kap has no accuracy, poor pocket presence and reads defenses poorly.

                As Boomer said, he may soon be out of the league.

            2. Training camp can’t come soon enough. He has a perspective and aim for CK to be who he thought Montana to be. Why, he thinks that doing so will make him a SB champ like he suggests coaches to do everything Walsh did. Have a good day Scooter. I always enjoy your perspective.

          2. Mr. Razoreator…………..

            I agree with you 100%. To acknowledge the difference between right and wrong in this civilization takes guts. Looks like you have them.

            Seb, now……no cheap shots!!!!!!!!!!

    1. That’d be pretty cool if Lowell talked some football in here with us, but I find it most unlikely it would be from a troll’s perspective….

    2. It’s just whimsy on my part, but Lowell is capable of projecting many enjoyable roles. It would certainly be more entertaining to think of TomD as a put on rather than as one dedicated to his mission.

  16. Trent and Jed, ARE YOU LISTENING, THE NFL RULES NOW FAVOR THE FORWARD PASS …. PLEASE END THIS GM WHO CAN’T EVEN SPOT TALENT ON OFFENSE!!!!!!! TOmD

    Chip Kelly’s revolutionary offense runs the same plays, and the rest of the NFL is catching on

    Cork Gaines
    Sep. 21, 2015, 12:44 PM

    When Chip Kelly first came to the NFL, his radical — for the NFL — offense was either “genius” and was going to revolutionize the pro game, or it was a “gimmick” and the rest of the NFL would expose its flaws…
    Kelly runs the same plays, and now the Eagles’ offense is getting its butt kicked.

    After averaging 142 yards rushing per game in Kelly’s first two seasons, the Eagles are averaging just 35 yards per game this season.

    when the linebackers are keyed to the run from the start, that advantage no longer exists, linebackers run free, and Murray is getting blown up in the backfield.

          1. Are you old enough to remember Woody Hayes’ hay maker on a Clemson player after he intercepted an Ohio State pass? I saw it live and I’ll never forget it….

            1. Razor,
              Hayes punched out someone else on the sidelines a few years earlier. It was either a member of the chain gang or the media I can’t quite remember, can you recall?

              1. Yes OldCoach, it was a camera man from the media I believe. I saw that one too, it was epic to a kid my age back then….

  17. Chip Kelly should ponder these words from the Art of War- Deception is the key.

    When signalling in plays, he should ascertain if they are stealing the signals by showing one thing, but doing the opposite. That is, they should show that they will run, then pass, and vice versa.

    The Zone Read option is good for not tipping their hand, because the decision to run or pass happens seconds after the snap.

    Counters should be effective because they could exploit the defense’s speed to over run the play, and cut back so the defense essentially fools itself and puts itself out of position.

    Reverses, even fake reverses, will make the defense tentative.

    A good counter to a fierce pass rush is the screen pass. I hope the Niners practice it until perfected, and employ that tactic a lot in games. They should invite the blitz, then burn them for doing it.

    1. Ah,

      The view of empty seats at Levi Stadium as fans continue their protests of York stupid football by not attending, leaving vendor hot dogs rotting, and hitting the York’s pocket book again….Better cut your losses your, forget your legacy building and copy Uncle Eddy’s genius by hiring smart football men like Holmgren and Shannahan to run things.

  18. Noted NFL Analyst calls Kelly’s offense stupid:

    Former fullback and NFL Network analyst Heath Evans is a noted Kelly detractor and sounded off on the Eagles struggles during a radio interview with Mike Missanelli on 97.5 FM The Fanatic on Wednesday.

    “The guys around the league look at this offense,” Evans said. “And the premise of it, there’s nothing genius about it. There’s more stupidity about it than genius.”

  19. Chip Kelly, ‘worst ever’ hire: NFL people, please, study up before you dismiss

    By Jason Kirk  @JasonKirkSBN on Jan 16, 2013, 2:03p 17

    I believe Heath Evans, former NFL player and current NFL.com analyst, does not spend much time thinking about college football. This conclusion is based on the believe Heath Evans, former NFL player and current NFL.com analyst, does not spend much time thinking about college football. This conclusion is based on the article he’s written at NFL.com on the Philadelphia Eagles hiring Chip Kelly away from Oregon.

    But the three reasons Evans chose to use to discredit the hire : For the past four years, Kelly has had the biggest recruiting advantage ever known to a college coach. His name is Phil Knight, the CEO of Nike and a major …

    http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2013/1/16/3883388/chip-kelly-eagles-coach-nfl-offense

  20. Phil Knight, the CEO of Nike and a major University of Oregon donor and school alumnus who pumps millions of dollars into the football program each year. Despite the enormous benefits of this relationship, Kelly has yet to bring a BCS title to Eugene.

    In four years with the Ducks, he has a 46-7 record, but has never finished higher than third in the polls, including 2010 when he lost to Auburn in the BCS National Championship game. In the NFL, you don’t get 10 first-round picks, and in Philly, the league’s best free agents aren’t lining up to join the Eagles

    Kelly/Oregon, above source: Jason Kirk

    1. I love the discipline and structure that Jim Harbaugh installed at Stanford and that current head coach David Shaw and Mason have continued. And they’ve done it with much less athletic players than what Kelly has enjoyed at Oregon. If Kelly’s high-powered offense could only manage 14 points against Stanford, how will this offense work in the NFL, where all teams — more or less – are on equal footing?

      If we’ve learned one thing this season in the NFL, it’s that you can’t expose
      your franchise quarterback to vicious and violent hits.
      t.

      As for the point at hand, I’ll refer you to the great Chris Brown:

      All quarterbacks – and all NFL players, really – are constantly at risk of gruesome injury. Pocket passers like Carson Palmer, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have missed entire seasons because of injuries sustained while standing in the pocket, and quarterbacks are constantly hit while or just after releasing the ball, a far more vulnerable position than being hit while sliding following a 5-yard gain behind a lead blocker. If the argument is that the scheme is too dangerous to risk injury to Robert Griffin III, then the real argument isn’t to abolish these offenses, it’s to abolish football.

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      As for the point at hand, I’ll refer you to the great Chris Brown:
      All quarterbacks – and all NFL players, really – are constantly at risk of gruesome injury. Pocket passers like Carson Palmer, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have missed entire seasons because of injuries sustained while standing in the pocket, and quarterbacks are constantly hit while or just after releasing the ball,

  21. Mark Schlereth Rips Chip Kelly’s Offense

    Chip Kelly is utilizing his offensive linemen this season.

    “People talk about, ‘Oh, revolutionizing the offense under Chip Kelly, he’s going to change the game,’” Schlereth said. “You don’t change the game if you don’t block people on the line of scrimmage…

    Schlereth said he watched the Eagles’ win over the Jets in Week 3, and realized that Kelly’s offense only has one snap count because Kelly wants to run more plays in a shorter period of time.

    notably angry about the way Kelly is trying to implement his offensive linemen.

    “I take it personally, because I know how hard it is. It pisses me off,” Schlereth said. “I’d like to put Chip Kelly in a helmet and shoulder pads and let someone tee off on him 65 plays in a row, because it sucks. I’ve been there before, and that stinks.”

    Read more at http://www.phillymag.com/birds247/2015/10/03/mark-schlereth-rips-chip-kellys-offense/#tlO2ZtSiWKg1cHBT.99

    “Chip Kelly, this is a Pop Warner snap count, essentially,” Schlereth said. “It’s the same snap count on every play, and defensive linemen tee off on you. You’re letting them control the line of scrimmage, you’re letting them get penetration in your backfield on a consistent basis because you don’t change your snap count.”

    Read more at http://www.phillymag.com/birds247/2015/10/03/mark-schlereth-rips-chip-kellys-offense/#tlO2ZtSiWKg1cHBT.99

    1. That’s damning. But I’m pretty sure I saw Gabbert use a hard count during OTAs and minicamp. I’ll watch for that during training camp.

      1. Mark didn’t play on that team and although there has been plenty of outspoken players that have actually played in his system none of the lineman have specifically mentioned the snap count before. I feel strongly that if it was as big of a deal as Mark is making it sound then a player like Mathis or any of the others that have complained would have said something about it when he was sounding off on why they didn’t like Chip. Not to mention that it’s a fairly basic diagnosis, have we really gone through 3 full seasons of Kelly’s offense and nobody else ever ‘figured out’ that Kelly was using a simplistic snap count? Sounds like the kind of thing that would have been mentioned by now.

        1. For Coffee:

          Reports emerged after the Dallas game that the Cowboys sideline was calling out the Eagles plays before the snap. That’s obviously not good, nor is it some conspiracy or victory for incredibly sophisticated prep work or subterfuge. They were doing that because the Eagles are basically running the same couple of things all game long, and seem surprised when they’re still not working, in a kind of logic General Melchett ..

          https://www.profootballfocus.com/why-the-eagles-are-failing-on-offense/

          1. 49ers’ Bethea a savvy safety (ask Chip Kelly)
            By Eric Branch
            Published 10:13 pm, Wednesday, May 25, 2016

            That week, (defensive coordinator) Vic Fangio knew that and he put in a system where we wouldn’t have to think a lot.

            In 2014, 49ers safety Antoine Bethea was wearing a microphone during a game in which he was calling out the opponent’s plays before the snap and generally playing at an all-world level.

            Two years later, Chip Kelly remembered Bethea’s performance. The reason: He was the Eagles head coach and had a first-hand look during the 49ers’ 26-21 win over Philadelphia.

            1. Having played the game, many may wonder, what does the above have to do with here and now.

              It demonstrates how slow Kelly is to evolve on offense.

          2. It’s easy to assume that because formations are similar or that they are running similar plays out of those formations IN ONE GAME that the offense is overly simplistic but none of that addresses the simple argument of; if Kelly’s offense was so simple and easy to read and figure out how was he able to maintain one of the top productive offenses in the league? It was his defense that was losing games not his offense. If either of these reports were true about having a simplistic snap count or basic offense then there is no way in hades that he would be able to compete in the NFL against NFL caliber defensive coordinators and players. If it was really that simple and easy to read then every play would be stopped for no gain or a loss, was that the case?

            No one that tries to point out how simple his offense is ever mentions the fact that despite their point the offense is still incredibly successful.

              1. No maybe you wont stop every play every time but you’ll stop most more often then not.

              1. Not sure what the Model T metaphor is about but you’re preaching to the choir when it comes to firing Baalke.

            1. CFC, I heard Kelly runs “package plays” that can change run or pass post snap. I don’t know how frequently he runs them, but combined with read option runs and option pass routes, that’s alot of post snap multiplicity.

              Pre snap it’s a simple system. Post snap it looks pretty complex.

              But how frequently does Kelly call package plays?

        2. Mark gets a little self righteous from time to time. He’s on the radio in Denver all the time. He’s been “so been so….about line play in the NFL recently. Back in his day…” He often has good things to say but he loses some objectivity around the OL. I think he’s perpetuating some of the narrative around this offense being simple. We’ll see won’t we. I think Chip is a smart guy and he seems to evolve.

  22. AES, Dez, Rocket, Razor, htwaits, Exgolpher, shoupbj… I’m continuing the optimism vs dark cloud thread anew because it got unclear who to to reply to.

    Below is neither support or contradiction of any of your posts. Just my vanilla take on the situation.

    The 2011 team had an insane collection of talent. But some forget it took an insane about of time, draft capital and cap bucks to build. 7 drafts, 9 first round draft picks, 7 top 11 draft picks, 2 block buster bucks free agent acquisitions. (J. Smith, Clemons).

    Over years I’ve seen fan comments describing Scott McClouhan as “Shot McClueless”, and now he’s a personnel deity. A veritable God of team building. I’ve seen Baalke go from “another stupid internal hire” to NFL executive of the year and “steely eyed muscle man”… and now to complete moron and destroyer of teams.

    It takes time. I’ll hold off comparing a 2 or 3 year build to a 7 year build.

    From a standpoint of 2-3 year build, I’m liking the collection of talent.

    The schedule is insane. Its the toughest in the NFL by last year’s collective win/loss record… and the Las Vagas projected win/loss too. That can’t be helped because its mostly based on a formula, but the league dumped crazy travel and date routines on the 49ers just to be sadistic. 7:30pm Monday game followed by a 10am Sunday game 3,000 miles away vs a Super Bowl team.

    Anything 5 wins or over I’d be happy with as long as I see signs of life. I think the defense is going to hurt people this year. I’m excited and optimistic that it will be fun football to watch.

    1. B2W,

      At the end of the day none of us knows what will happen. All we have to go on is how the team has performed recently, quality of opponent and Coaching. Even then it’s impossible to predict because we don’t know how injuries will affect the teams they play or the Niners themselves.

      My negative, black cloud, whatever else anyone wants to describe it as view, comes from watching the team the past couple of years as their quality of play deteriorated, players were lost to retirement and FA, draft picks haven’t panned out, and two Coaching changes were implemented. That is not a recipe for success. The best teams in this league have a few things in common:

      Coaching staffs that have a few years with the same group
      A good to great QB
      Pass rush
      High end talent at key positions

      The 49ers have none of these traits. They have question marks up and down the roster and are relying on late round picks and UDFA’s in some areas because there isn’t any other option. This team was ranked near the bottom of the league on both sides of the ball last year. We can write that off to Coaching, but that’s only one part of it. The Coaches don’t play. You need players to win in this league and the Niners until proven otherwise, don’t have enough of them. I haven’t forgotten the decade of poor play this team went through and I’m sure others haven’t as well. What is happening right now is very similar to what happened then. Rash firings, multiple Coaching changes, questionable draft picks, no true answer at QB, and right on down the line.

      It’s obvious there are some on here who want to stick their head in the sand and think happy thoughts and that’s fine, but not everyone feels that way and it’s not because they are miserable or are purposely trying to bring everybody down. It’s the view of the team from a different angle – a more realistic one imo – that understands every team in this league has players they hope will improve. Unlike the Niners however, they also have the elements above that separate the haves from the have nots.

      I see no way this team goes to the playoffs in the next few years, but you know what? I’ll be as happy as anybody if they do and I look like an idiot for not believing in them. That’s the part people need to remember. This isn’t about wanting the team to fail and then saying I was right. I want to be wrong, I just can’t ignore harsh realities that are an obstacle for this team. I want this team to win. I want players, Coaches and a GM who will help make that happen. If the current group is able to do that, I’ll be happy to come in here and take all the heat anyone can throw at me. I don’t care. I simply don’t see the outlook for success that some others do when I look at the makeup of the team and how this league tends to play out.

      1. Rocket – Thanks for pointing out that just because a fan thinks his team will struggle, it doesn’t mean he wants the team to struggle. He’s just as loyal as the optimistic fan.

        To me the analysis of why a team will do well or not is far more fun than getting predictions right.

        Injury rates make fools of most prognosticators. It’s part of what makes it fun to be a fan.

        1. Rocket,

          I don’t know of anyone who has said that you want the team to lose so you can be right about how bad the team is. Everyone should be well aware that you want the team to be successful.

          Are you aware that you are seeing the team in pretty much the most negative possible light? Sure, you say nobody knows what’s going to happen, but the reality is, practically every opinion you give about the team makes it pretty obvious that you feel you do know what is going to happen and that the future for the team is very bleak.

          This is not to say that you’re not right, but there is a significant possibility that you’re wrong, too. Teams do get better, seemingly out of nowhere. Bad teams are almost always seen as bad teams, right up until the time they’re not.

          I know you disagree, but IMO the defense has a number of players that could breakout and form the nucleus of a very good defense, maybe as early as this year. This is not guaranteed, but it is possible.

          The OL could suck and Hyde could get injured again, or the OL could gel and Hyde could be healthy and tear it up. Remember, he nearly led the NFL in yards after contact and broken tackles, when healthy.

          Both QB’s could be horrible, or Kelly could figure out a way to get something out of them.

          Kelly and his staff could bomb, but he could be successful, as well. Many HC’s were seen as failures in their first stop, to one degree or another, then ended up being very successful at their second stop. And, yes, I’m well aware that a lot of HC’s that failed at their first job, failed at their second, as well.

          I understand your point of view and realize you could be correct, but other outcomes possible.

          1. While possible, most of your scenarios are unlikely given history.

            For instance, barring injury most perennial 10+ pass rushers tend to have a 10+ sack year within their 1st 2 seasons.

            Some of the young guys look like quality NFL players, but it’s probably a stretch to say they look like PWillis, Bowman, Aldon, or Gore did.

            It’s unlikely that all of the quality youngsters will work out too. Julian Peterson, Jamie Winborn, Mike Rumph, etc.

            Hopefully there are some all-pros in the bunch. And as history has also shown, all it takes in today’s NFL is a few successive good to great drafts to build a contender. Assuming Baalke is competent, the law of averages says he is well overdue to have some good drafts. Let’s hope 2016 was one of them.

            1. Unlikely? Yes, it’s unlikely that a team that was 5-11 one year will be significantly better the next, but that doesn’t mean there’s not a meaningful chance of improvement.

              All I’m saying it is possible the team might show an improvement this year.

              Furthermore, I don’t agree that the roster is devoid of talent, as some claim. It’s not a great roster, but it’s not expansion level as many dome claim.

              As for pass rushers, Lynch hasn’t had a full season yet and this will be Harold’s second year.

              If Hyde can stay healthy, he could be a very good back, possibly in the same category as Gore.

      2. “Rash firings, multiple Coaching changes, questionable draft picks, no true answer at QB, and right on down the line.” … rocket

        I’ve lived with a lot of that rocket. There has also been a lot of almost but not quite to the top living too.

        Even with the magic of the Walsh/Seifert Organization years, seven out of twelve NFC championships ended with “not quite to the top” results. That’s not counting the three consecutive one and out years that Walsh personally had.

        Being competitive is where it’s at, not winning a new ring every year. That’s really why they play the games.

        1. Is that all?

          The Niners should have 8 or 9 Superbowls, aside from the first Aikman led Couboys blown calls costing a SuperBowl appearance, here are a few other golden oldies:

          Did you include the 1991 NYG/SF NFC Championlship game when the 49ers were lining up to center a game winning field goal by handing off to Roger Craig who fumled?

          Or the 1983 NFC Championship game when the 49ers erased a 21-0 deficit only to have a storm of Ref flags against them because the NFL did not want the 49ers dominating the NFL.

        2. htwaits,

          Since your documenting past 49er regimes I took the liberty to add this to your list:

          NFL’s most unbreakable records
          Jim Reineking

          NFL Media editor | NFL.com

          San Francisco 49ers (18 consecutive road wins from 1988-1990)

          Winning on the road in the NFL is tough business. Doing so for a stretch of two-plus seasons is nearly impossible, unless you’re the talent-laden 49ers of the late-1980s, early-1990s. The 49ers won the Super Bowl following the 1988 and 1989 seasons, and were vying for a rare three-peat during the 1990 season. With teams routinely gunning for defending Super Bowl champions at every chance they get, it’s amazing what the 49ers were able to pull off and this accomplishment only speaks to their status as one of the NFL’s all-time greatest dynasties.
          http://www.nfl.com/photoessays/0ap3000000415162

        3. ht,

          Yes even the Camelot days featured some disappointing seasons especially from 85-87 when they were getting pounded by the Giants and then losing to the Vikings in the first round.

          Being competitive is everything to me. That’s not to say I don’t love watching them win SB”s, but having a real chance to go to the playoffs and possibly get to a SB is what constitutes success in the modern NFL. The system is set up so that no team should be a bottom feeder for an extended period of time and yet the Niners went nearly a decade without being a playoff contender and now look to be on that same track after a 3 year run of being a SB contender. It’s hard to stomach.

      3. Good take on key properties of building a winner. Consistently winning teams have good HC/QB tandems and a killer pass rush.

        I’m excited about the defense not because I think they will be great (I think they will surprise this season), but because it’s such an unusual array of talent.

        No (established) star edge rusher, but 2 tall inside guys that can pressure + the Blair blitz project. Dail and TJE are tall too. It will be interesting to see how all the defenders are deployed.

        And so many that can play in multiple spots and roles. Ward, Tartt, Blair. Buckner and Armstead played up and down the line too. Bucker’s even lined up wide 9.

        I’m looking forward to it all.

        1. B2W,
          I believe that it was last week when a few of the posters got into a little back and forth regarding fans having favorite TC hopefuls every year.

          Usually the TC hopeful is a mid to late (or even UDFA) pick that we fans latch on to with the hope of seeing that player make the team.
          Well, my TC hopefuls this year is Ronnie “Rack’em” Blair and Aaron “Air” Burbridge.

          If these mid to late rd picks (along with other picks) make and help the team, we could be witnessing the building blocks for a quick revival of our team becoming consistent playoff contenders for much sooner than later.
          Hey, nothing wrong with hoping at this time of the year, right?

            1. AES… thanks. Someone else coined “The Blair Blitz Project” shortly after he was drafted. I can’t remember if it was someone here or at Niners Nation.

              My other favorites are “Crustacean Sensation” (Crabtree), “Turlock Tornado” (Kaepernick), “Fifi” (Rice), Skeets (Nehemiah), “David W. Gibson” (Montana), “Johnny Joe Idaho” (Montana).

              1. B2W,
                Fifi, was a cute moniker but one that I believe Jerry Rice wasn’t very fond of. If memory serves me, I think he received the nick-name because of a hair style he had in his first couple of seasons.

                Aside from that moniker, I don’t believe Jerry Rice ever had one that I can remember.
                Perhaps G.O.A.T is the proper one.

              2. AES – Yes, Rice did have the nick “Fifi” because of his hair style in his rookie season. He dropped it and the Cabbage Patch dance a few years later.

          1. That’s a good pair of hopefuls. Mine are Blair and Robinson. I think they are almost locks to make the team. The “hope” part is in how they perform.

            If Blair can shoot gaps the way he did in college, and Robinson can cover man outside with only single high safety behind him it will be huge.

            One draft insider (forget who) said he heard a cheer from the 49ers war room when Robinson was selected. I’ll take that over a name in an envelope.

            1. Side note: Robinson has put on lbs since the combine. About 185 now. He’s young too. Will turn 21 in a month. He should naturally fill out and get a little stronger.

        2. Brodie,
          Just because I dont see the niners having a good record, I will enjoy watching them play for other reasons. While I believe the 9ers record will not be good, I really am looking forward to the development of some of these young players. This seasons success will not be measured by their record in my opinion. It will be measured by the development of these players (hopefully, we will see the early stages of a dominant front 7 on D), and a more consistent offensive attack that has some go-to-plays.

          1. 1978 San Francisco 49ers – Record: 2-12
            HC: Pete McCulley, Fred O’Connor. GM: Joe Thomas

            1979 San Francisco 49ers – Record: 2-12
            HC: Bill Walsh. GM: Bill Walsh

            The 49ers have alot of players that are A-typical physical types for their position. Its going to be fascinating to see how it all fits together.

            1. This is a great example. While there wasn’t any improvement in regards to the record (even with one the greatest coaches ever), the groundwork was laid for future success.

            2. B2W,
              It amazes how some organizations can rebound quickly from less then seasons.

              I can’t remember the Steelers, Patriots and Broncos over the last 20 years having to go 3-5 years of mediocre football before being relevant.

              Sure, I know about their pro-bowl type QB’s, but it also has to start from the top and all the way down to their scouting teams that seem to have a great eye for locating talent and owners/GM’s that are very proficient at working at signing the right players.

              The Steelers and the Patriots are a great example of teams that usually draft low almost every season and still seem to have a knack for finding future stars. They have a formula that they stick to, and find the players that fit into that particular formula.

              Harbaugh was on the verge of developing that concept. He wanted a strong defensive front 7 along with a powerful Oline that could maul opposing teams into submission for 4 qtrs.
              The Harbaugh football theory reminded me of the Bill Parcell NYGiants who would give the 49ers headaches even with all of our future HOF players.

              We need to develop a successful formula the way the afore mentioned teams have been able to do and be diligent to stick to it.
              I hope that Kelly era can bring this about and that the front office is smart enough to get out of the way when it begins to happen.

      4. Rocket, I am one of those that continue to be optimistic for each and every season. Your points are valid. My optimism is ‘experienced’ (experience optimist), but nevertheless every season since 1959 I have always stated the Niners are going to win it all. It has nothing to do with the quality of the team or in this case lack thereof. It has to do with being a fan of the Niners and more importantly a fan of the game. How far does optimism go, well simply put, I wouldn’t put money on the Niners winning any games this year but my fandom will state that the Niners are going to be 19-0 this year.

        You already know I am a huge Kelly fan and feel what he is bringing to the game is not much difference then what Walsh brought to the game – change. Their philosophies are very different but the way they go about it is the same. True we have seen no huddle offenses in the NFL and we have seen the spread however I can not remember a NFL team incorporating both all season long except the Eagles. Please enlighten me if I am wrong. I also thinking coaching to include Harbaugh had a lot to do with performance the last two years.

        Your list of what makes team successful does not necessary apply to all success in the NFL. Harbaugh came in with a new staff without a QB and did very well. Even at his hire none of us new what was to come. We new we had high draft choices that were not performing we also new that we sucked for a good many years prior to his hire.

        Months ago I stated three things needed to happen for this team to succeed

        1. Players have to buy in – from what I have read that seems to be the case.
        2. QB needs to be a ‘threat’ to run.
        3. The Niners have to run the ball.

        The thing I like about Kelly if and that’s a big if, if its successful it will make the transition from the college game to the NFL a little simpler which would make the Niners in the drivers seat for a couple of seasons or two. If it fails, well just another flash in the pan that burnt the ingredients.

        Rocket, all is good :)

        1. Good post under. Everybody has their own way of coping and to each his own. I just get tired of the eternal sunshine club saying all is well and complaining about anyone who doesn’t share in the delusion. I went through the very same thing last year when some of the same group had convinced themselves Tomsula was a better Coach than Harbaugh and the team was going to be better without him. It was a complete and total failure and yet here they are again talking about 10 wins and playoffs.

          1. “I just get tired of the eternal sunshine club saying all is well and complaining about anyone who doesn’t share in the delusion.”

            Ha! In one sentence you have mentioned how annoying you find people that complain of others that don’t share their view, and been derisive of those that have a different (i.e. optimistic) view to you by calling them delusional. :-)

            1. Yes I did Scooter and also gave an example of a prior delusion as an example. I should really try to find some of the pro Tomsula posts from last year. That would be entertaining.

              1. Rocket:

                What’s your most “optimistic” (or should I say least pessimistic) prediction for next year’s Win/Loss [not trying to pile on :)]

              2. Yeah, I was very conscious of not providing any guess on how many wins the team would get last season, but I do know I was trying to look at the bright side of the team’s off-season.

                It is of course easy to say those that were optimistic were delusional in hindsight, after it has been proven the team was terrible. But in reality its just not the case – it wasn’t delusional, just misplaced optimism.

                And I think saying someone is delusional for being optimistic about the team’s chances this season is, in my opinion, far too judgmental. It is quite simply being optimistic. And those that are being optimistic will once again most likely be proven to have misplaced optimism!

              3. Cubus,

                I think they are a 4 to 6 win team. 6 wins would be the max. imo and would involve everything falling their way in terms of injuries and what teams are playing for when they meet the Niners late in the season.

                Don’t worry about piling on. This wasn’t an example of that, but even if it was, I’m a big boy and can take it.;)

              4. Scooter,

                I disagree. I don’t think the optimism of last year was a mental disorder per sey, but it fit the definition of delusion to a tee. Believing the Niners would be better with out Harbaugh and expecting a winning season after all the player losses, was a delusion. Nothing supported the contention that the Niners would be good last year and there was overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

                When I refer to this years optimism as a delusion, it is in reference to those who once again think this is a 10 win team contending for the playoffs and think everything is great when it clearly isn’t, much like they did last year. Overly optimistic would be believing they can go 500.

              5. If Kaepernick explodes in this offense, all delusional bets are off. He stated he plans to break records, so he’s in Rocket’s delusional camp too….

              6. Rocket,

                There is no indication that you were joking with this latest post, if you are, then it’s a good one, well played.

                If you’re not joking, then I’m stunned. “I don’t think the optimism of last year was a mental disorder per sey…” Wow, how generous of you.

                BTW, it’s “per se”, not “per sey”.

              7. Ex,

                Yes I was kidding. A delusion is defined partly as a mental disorder and no I don’t seriously think anyone here has a mental disorder….well not all anyway. Now correcting a typo? You must be getting upset about my views again.

              8. “…fit the definition of delusion to a tee.”

                No, it really didn’t rocket. Even ignoring the mental disorder connotation of delusional and looking at it in terms of its more common usage to describe someone that believes something despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, last year’s optimism was not delusional.

                There was good reason to believe the team was suffering Harbaugh burnout. There was good reason to believe the team still had a pretty talented roster despite the retirements and performance in 2014. And whatever you thought of Tomsula, he was still an unknown that was worthy of some benefit of the doubt. The “evidence” the team was going to suck was based on opinion, not fact. Hindsight now doesn’t make it fact then.

                Same applies this season. Sure, my belief is this team will have overachieved if it wins 8 games, but that’s just my opinion. Just like the team struggling to win 4 or 5 games might be your opinion. You can label yourself as realistic, but its still just an opinion. The “evidence” the team will struggle is a lot stronger this year, but once again it is all opinion based. Given the performance last year it is a lot easier to say the team lacks talent, but again, that is opinion. Who knows, maybe those saying the talent on this team has been misused are correct. Maybe Kelly is the guy to get the best out of it.

              9. Scooter,

                There was good reason to believe the team was suffering Harbaugh burnout. There was good reason to believe the team still had a pretty talented roster despite the retirements and performance in 2014. And whatever you thought of Tomsula, he was still an unknown that was worthy of some benefit of the doubt. The “evidence” the team was going to suck was based on opinion, not fact. Hindsight now doesn’t make it fact then.

                I disagree with everything you said here. The suggestions of Harbaugh burnout came from one guy – Boone – and weren’t supported by how hard the team played through a horrendous year of injuries.

                There was also little reason to believe in the overall roster considering how poorly the fill ins had played for the injured starters the year before, and how much they relied on guys like JS and Willis to be leaders in the locker room. The roster was full of question marks, much the same as it is this year.

                As far as Tomsula goes, you may feel he deserved the benefit of the doubt, but I did not. He didn’t deserve the job, he was not remotely qualified for the job and the only reason he got the job was due to being liked by the owner. It was not hindsight. I said here numerous times that Tomsula would be a disaster as did many analysts who get paid to talk about the NFL. Last season should not have been a surprise to anyone. The organization screwed up in every conceivable way possible.

                Same applies this season. Sure, my belief is this team will have overachieved if it wins 8 games, but that’s just my opinion. Just like the team struggling to win 4 or 5 games might be your opinion. You can label yourself as realistic, but its still just an opinion. The “evidence” the team will struggle is a lot stronger this year, but once again it is all opinion based. Given the performance last year it is a lot easier to say the team lacks talent, but again, that is opinion. Who knows, maybe those saying the talent on this team has been misused are correct. Maybe Kelly is the guy to get the best out of it.

                Believing this team would be good last year was a delusional opinion. There are realistic views and pie in the sky views. 1 has a greater chance of happening than the other and in this case there was clear and ample information to suggest the 49ers were going to be a bad team last year. This year isn’t much better but at least they have a better HC and an offensive scheme that has worked pretty well albeit with another roster in a different city.

                I’m not trying to pat myself on the back here. What I thought would happen last year wasn’t some great achievement in clairvoyance. It was pretty obvious to non fans of the 49ers and even to many fans of the 49ers. I’m not suggesting that people should stop being optimistic either. Do whatever you want to do as a fan to enjoy the season and the team you follow, but don’t come in here and whine about opinions that aren’t positive and describe those who give them as being miserable or residing under a black cloud. It’s called giving a reasoned and objective view of a football team without personal bias.

              10. “but don’t come in here and whine about opinions that aren’t positive and describe those who give them as being miserable or residing under a black cloud.”

                Doesn’t the same apply in reverse? Yet you seem to have no qualms whining, complaining about and belittling those that are optimistic.

              11. Everything I’ve said has been in response to the claims by those who don’t like negative opinions.

              12. That’s fine. FWIW, I like reading your opinions.

                However, in my experience telling people to not do something while at the same time doing it yourself doesn’t tend to get much traction… ;-)

              13. Thank you Scooter and I enjoy your input in this forum very much as well, but how I respond is based on the tone and subject matter of what was directed. I didn’t come on here and start ripping people for being optimistic, in fact I had a pretty respectful dialogue with AES on this topic above. I responded to the people who feel those who have a negative opinion are not real fans, or cannot possibly be happy etc.etc. I read this same nonsense last year at this time, and from mostly the same names that are throwing it around again this year. If you don’t agree with how I handle it, that is your prerogative, but I am what I am.

              14. Yeah, I find it very annoying when people suggest you aren’t a true fan if you don’t see the team in a favourable light too. Understand where you are coming from. This has actually gone a lot further than I anticipated from my original comment, which was meant as a light hearted jab!

              15. Rocket,

                No, your opinion on the state of the 49ers isn’t the least bit irritating.

                When you disingenuously say nobody knows what’s going to happen, only to then turn around and launch into more or less the same multi paragraph rant on how bad the team is and how it’s going to bad for the foreseeable future and anyone who can’t see that is delusional, “has their head in the sand” and “wants to only think happy thoughts”, yes, that is somewhat annoying.

                As for the “typo” correction, that was snarky.

              16. Scooter,

                You’re 100% correct that opinion can’t be promoted to fact when that opinion turns out to be right. It remains an opinion.

                Rocket,

                You’re right, you’re not trying to pat yourself, you are patting yourself on the back.

              17. Rocket,

                It probably doesn’t seem like it, but I also like reading your comments.

                The double standard gets s little old, though.

              18. Rocket,

                “Thank you Scooter and I enjoy your input in this forum very much as well, but how I respond is based on the tone and subject matter of what was directed.”

                I’m sure you believe this is true, but there are plenty of times that you respond with your delusional / head in the sand / happy thoughts response to someone merely posting an optimistic opinion on the team. After which you might get a complaint, but do really expect a positive reaction to calling someone delusional?

                Some times you rip the optimists completely on your own:

                ” It’s obvious there are some on here who want to stick their head in the sand and think happy thoughts and that’s fine, but not everyone feels that way and it’s not because they are miserable or are purposely trying to bring everybody down.”

                The above was in response to no one whining or complaining. Unless you’re bestowing the right to play the delusional card any time you want because at some point in the past somebody complained/whined about your point of view.

                FWIW, I agree with Scooter about those who accuse you of not being a true fan, that’s ridiculous.

              19. Sorry Scooter I have to side with Rocket on this.

                I get the Harbaugh burnout part, but there is no way one could argue the roster was talented enough to offset the losses it had.

                OL – they lost 2 boderline pro bowl players
                DL – they lost an All-Pro and the most important piece to the defense.
                LB – They lost two Pro Bowlers and their best pass rusher.
                DB – They lost both starting corners
                WR – they lost Kaepernick’s favorite target on an already below average unit
                RB – They lost Gore but I will admit here there was some reason for optimism due to the emergence of Hyde.

                How can anyone argue that with such turnover on the roster the team would improve?

              20. Shoup, keep in mind most of the optimism rocket is talking about came prior to Davis retiring and Smith being cut.

                They lost a PB OG, but there was reason to believe with Davis returning and what was thought to be Kilgore and a promising Thomas back from injury, + the “the best centre in the 2014 draft” having a full offseason with the strength and conditioning coaches, the team could conceivably be better at OL than in 2014.

                Yes, they lost Justin Smith, but Dial and Tank had shown flashes in late 2014, and they drafted Armstead in round 1. With Williams and Dorsey, the expectation was the DL would still be strong.

                They lost Willis and Borland, but Willis hadn’t been the same pdominant player he was for 2 seasons and they had Bowman back.

                They lost Culliver and Cox, and nobody cared. I think everyone realised they were products of Fangio’s system, which they proved in 2015. The 49ers had invested heavily at CB in 2014 so it was reasonable to expect they might be improved at the position.

                At OLB, prior to Aldon getting cut it looked like a position of great strength, with Aldon, Brooks and Lynch.

                At WR they had added Torrey Smith to replace Crabtree, which I think most people considered an upgrade. And losing Johnson and Lloyd wasn’t considered much of a loss with a fairly reasonable expectation Ellington and/or Patton would come on as they had shown flashes previously.

                At RB, Gore wasn’t the same RB he used to be, and I think most people agreed Hyde was more than capable of handling the role.

                At QB, Kaep was coming off a down year, but again, it was fairly reasonable to be optimistic he would be better in 2015.

                With Tomsula, I don’t think many people thought he was an upgrade. But it wasn’t unreasonable to think he might at least be competent, or at the very least be willing to give him the benefit of the doubt before the season started before judging him.

                So yeah, overall, it really wasn’t that delusional to think the team would be better than it was. Of course once Davis and Aldon were gone I think most people agreed it was going to be a tough year.

              21. Ex,

                Some times you rip the optimists completely on your own:

                ” It’s obvious there are some on here who want to stick their head in the sand and think happy thoughts and that’s fine, but not everyone feels that way and it’s not because they are miserable or are purposely trying to bring everybody down.”

                As you should be able to see from the bolded portion it was a response; not ripping optimists on my own.

                I disagree with a number of people on here Ex, but I don’t try to pretend I know who they are as people or determine the level of fan they are. I got tired of reading that stuff and responded. Don’t confuse that with coming in here and attacking people for no reason.

              22. Scooter,

                The longer the discussion thread the more directions things seem to go. I know what you were doing and it’s fine. I think we are in the portion of the offseason where we all just want to get things going and the dialogue tends to get a little crazy. I’m going to take a sabbatical and come back in August I think.

              1. Jack,

                Very funny, and you’re 100% right, Rocket should let it go.

                Just kidding, Rocket, and Jack, you’re right. There will be no more from me on this subject for at least a couple of hours.

                Thanks for the humorous nudge.

          2. Rocket,
            We have enough people in the football world telling us how bad this team is. And believe me, I could easily join the bash parade when I start to contemplate the loss of key players, the decline of play from some of last years starters etc, ad nauseam.

            But I choose to stay away from the naysayers (even if they’re right) and will rile against the odds. Yeah, I know that I’m hopelessly optimistic and I’m going against the grain of the majority, but I will continue to believe that this team and new headcoach will bring an inspired brand of football back this year.

            Does this mean that they’ll win a lot of games? No. It means that they’ll play hard and be competitive in every game. For me, that gives me reason to hope for a young winning team in the not to distant future.

            1. Rocket,
              I hope that you don’t feel that ever suggested or inferred that you are not a fan because of your stance.
              You are one of the best posters on here I and never bypass you entries when I see your name.

              But using the term “delusional” must be taken in relative measure.
              This is my opinion of delusional: Thinking I can jump off a ten story building and land safely on my feet = delusional!
              As opposed to: Thinking that my team can be a 6-8 game winner = hopeful!

              In my first address on the topic (believe with B2W) I used the term “hopeful” because as a longtime fan, that is the way I’ve approached every season.
              Now, I understand all the valid reasons as to why the majority strongly feel this team is looking at a very possible 3-5 win season and that’s ok with me because I respect their prerogative. And honestly, I really don’t care if anyone respects my hopeful stance or not.
              Like yourself; I am, what I am – or as they say in my neighborhood; I is, what I is (lol).

              1. AES,

                Not at all in fact I referenced our discussion above as an example of a respectful dialogue between two fans who have different views.

                My use of the term of delusional was simply to suggest that fans tend to overlook the overwhelming evidence that contradicts their view of the team. I wasn’t seriously suggesting anyone had a mental disorder.

                The Popeye link was good and I yam what I yam. I’m also strong to the finich cause I eats me Spinach.

                Have a good holiday weekend and summer.

              2. Rocket,
                Hey, all good my friend. I’ve read your content on here long enough to know that you are well informed and balanced – as well as never going into attack mode on anyone.

                Hope to see you back in August – please know that I am a fan of yours.

  23. TomD

    Well, I guess you have stymied us out here in Ninerland with your cut and paste out of all of your Eagles sports ‘rags’…Let’s see, since Norm Snead, how many ‘Lombardi’s’ have the beagles won….? ’nuff said….

      1. Rocket,

        Excellent synopsis of the last decade + and I would venture to say what the future holds under this ownership.
        When the York’s decide to stop favoring their, “I Did It My Way, ” legacy pursuit by distancing themselves from Uncle Eddy’s coaching tree, maybe we’ll finally get someone who understands blocking, QB’s and WR’s.

        When the Jed-o-saurus forced Adam Gase to accept Tomsual as DC and I firmly believe, Trent Baalk-a-pythicus told Gase to tear the pass plays from his playbook and replace them with inside running plays, Gase decided he would rocket out of the 49er Pleistocene Era and into the modern era.

        Until the York family hires competent WCO people like Holmgen ,Shannahan and/or Gruden (who have sons coaching in the NFL) to run the F/O and find young, quality WCO coaches, they will keep guessing when hiring coaches.

        1. That’s 31 other teams, but only one of those was in Stanford’s back yard, and the 49ers were the only team with a Stanford couch working for them.

            1. Good point ht. From what I’ve read Sherman and Baldwin didn’t like Harbaugh because they believed he didn’t speak highly of them when contacted by NFL teams for a reference. That has never been substantiated though. One thing that continues to be forgotten or ignored however is the fact Harbaugh was not in charge of personnel. Baalke made the final decisions in the draft and FA.

              1. Rocket,

                I found an article in which JH is quoted saying, “I should’ve drafted Baldwin.”

                Not I wish Trent had drafted Baldwin, but I should’ve drafted Baldwin.

                As much as it can be documented, both Baldwin and Sherman hate JH. Sherman’s dad is quoted as calling it a “passionate hatred”.

                It’s also fairly well chronicled that JH didn’t give them good marks when NFL scouts asked about RS and DB.

                So, to dismiss JH having some input on drafting his own players doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense.

              2. … unless you’re inside Baalke’s head and Harbaugh’s head. The hate started coming after the draft and they started having some success.

                It was a long time before Baalke drafted a Stanford player, and those two aren’t the only ones he missed.

              3. HT,

                You’re right, unless in JH’s and TB’s head, we will never know. As I said, it’s just a thought. But JH said himself, “I should’ve drafted Doug Baldwin…”

  24. Being the eternal optimist, I predicted a 10-6 season, last year. Of course, I did not factor in losing Hyde, Kaep’s regression, the putrid O line and inept coaching. Actually, it was amazing they won 5 games. They should have only won 2.

    This year, I expect an 8 win season, with dreams of 10 and a shot at the playoffs, if Hyde is healthy and Kaep redeems himself.

    Why such a sunny forecast? Because I think the fixes will be easy. Chip will solve the offensive malaise, and he has 2 QBs who can run his system properly. Bradford was a joke. They ignored his capacity to run, and made him one dimensional. Kaep has the ability to score 90 yard TDs by out racing the DBs, untouched. Gabbert had a 40 yard TD run against the Bears.

    I think that at least one WR will step up, to help Torrey and score TDs. I hope White and Harris become the returners, so Ellington will stay healthy and help the passing game.

    The O line was getting better once Devey was benched, and the addition of 3 O linemen in the draft just improved the squad. Flaherty coached SB lines.

    I was sad to see Hayne go, but if Hyde can stay healthy, we could see games like last year’s Viking game.

    Buckner will help Armstrong, and both will get push so they can collapse the pocket and pressure the QB. Blair will turn heads with his quickness and tenacity.

    Linebacker is a big question mark, but hope Tank and Hodges can step up. I hope Tartt will become that hybrid player.

    I hope Lemonier, TJE, Purcell and Smith get playing time so they can help keep the starters fresh.

    Chip is the key. He is innovative enough to affect change. I hope he can make those quick in game adjustments. I hope he takes them by surprise, and puts them on their heels. I hope he runs the Zone Read option to perfection. Chip will utilize his players properly, so he accentuates their strengths and disguises their weaknesses. I do not think much about his OC and DC, but Flaherty and Azzinaro may help them succeed.

    All in all, I still love the Niners, and the memories of those Glory Years will sustain me through these trying times. Jed actually did something right when he hired Chip. Now he has to open up his pocket book and give Chip the support he needs.

    1. The question is how much will the improvements to the offense be offset by the detrimental effects Kelly’s offense has on Kelly’s defense.

      1. Great insight Grant. Not to mention it’s been reported by a rival GM/Scout in a National Fooltball Publication that Baalke’s actual pitch to potential F/A coming to the 49ers this offseason was: You will have more opportunities to stack up defensive statistics (for your next contract)…Like most 49er ventures with personnel, F/A declined the 49ers precisely because they feared more opportunities for career ending ACL injuries.

        I will document this quote tomorrow.

      2. Grant – I look at it a little differently. Not your question but the statement inside the question is absolute and I think you are wrong. We do not know if Kelly’s offense will be detrimental to the defense. On paper that may seem so but what if Kelly’s offense becomes magical as it was at Oregon. Lots and lots of points, that makes the defense job easier even if they are on the field more. Also two players on defense are use to being on the field for many minutes. Your statement ‘could’ be true especially if the offense sucks. I think we need to observe some regular season games before we can reach your conclusion that the offense will be detrimental of the defense. You can extrapolate stats from the Eagles and make a case but I would caution you with the adage – new team, new players, new year.

        The defenses job is to stop the other team. That’s what they are paid to do. The offense should not have any bearing on the quality of the defense. Scheme, coaching, and players ability should determine how the defense performs.

        1. Under,

          I’m with you.

          While not the most likely scenario, the offense could click under Kelly with a healthy Hyde and / or a revived CK or developing Gabbert, while the young players on the defense could put it together and play better than expected.

          Again, it’s unlikely improvement will be linear and that both the offense and defense both show marked improvement, but it’s not impossible.

          Besides, summer is a lot better without fretting over how bad the team is going to be. If they do suck, knowing that at the time of real, actual in game sucking will be plenty of pain for me, thank you!

      3. Good question. Invincibility lies in defense. Victory can be achieved through offense.

        Also, in other words, the best offense is a good defense, and the best defense is a good offense.

        If Chip can get the offense to be at least competent, there will be less 3 and outs, which really stress the defense. If the defense can prevent the the other team from converting third downs, it will immensely help the offense.

  25. Good Luck with this Buddy Ryan Clone, LA’s Greg Williams, 46 defensive bear expert.

    Buddy Ryan did something 3 teams have ever done, led Philly to #1 pass defense, #1, rush defense, # 1 total defense…. good luck getting run and pass game to jell Chip, TomD

    Gregg Williams, who enters his 25th season as an NFL coach in 2015, joined the Rams as defensive coordinator in 2014 .
    In Williams’ first season with the Rams, the defense boasted one of the league’s best units over the second half of the season. In the team’s last eight games, St. Louis ranked fourth in rushing yards per game (84.4), fifth in points allowed per game (16.8) and tied for fourth in sacks (26). DE Robert Quinn earned his second consecutive Pro Bowl honor along with rookie DT Aaron Donald who capped his season with defensive rookie of the year.
    In 2000, the Titans led the NFL in total defense for the first time since joining the NFL and allowed 191 points – the third-fewest in league record books since the adoption of a 16-game schedule in 1978.

      1. It’s Jim Tomsula all over again, not knowing how to make in-game adjustments to what Jeff Fischer and Gregg Williams are doing….Except….Tomsula actually was a NFL DL coach for 8 seasons….Chip’s staff has none of this…49ers 2-14 in 2016

          1. Ancient Wisdom

            Know Thy Enemy

            Know Thy Enemy
            Jakub Grygiel

            Know your enemy, for he certainly lknows you.

            The modern Western penchant for trusting in the equal rationality of all is strategic folly. Aeschylus understood this well.

            Good strategy requires a sound understanding of one’s rivals To engage him effectively in debate one must understand his speech and reasoning patterns.

    1. Grant

      I have found it confusing that everyone on here seems to think that we took no ILBs…perhaps it was just ‘draft stock’, but what would you call Jason Fanaika, and Lenny Jones ? Both have size, speed and attitude for ILB ?

      I’d like also to hear something positive about OL Norman Price and Blake Muir….;Do any of them stand even a ghost of a chance of sticking ?

      1. Sorry, Oregon, but there is a reason why they were UDFA. Maybe they were not productive or had weaknesses, but the main reason why they did not go in the first 3 rounds of the draft is because they are all a bit slower than the drafted players.

        Just like some are predicting the Niner 6th round draft picks will make the 53. All of them are longshots, just like the LBs, Cajuste, Cherry, Lake and Treggs.

        Muir has to beat out the incumbents, but also Garnett, Theus and Cooper. I think Balducci has a better chance than Price and Muir.

  26. “From a personnel standpoint, very comfortable with who we have, the direction we’re going and how it fits within the schemes that we want to run.”

    “With Chip, he says it all the time: He wants to run the football, and he wants to be able to play big-boy ball on both sides of the line of scrimmage,” 49ers general manager Trent Baalke told USA TODAY Sports. “From a personnel standpoint, very comfortable with who we have, the direction we’re going and how it fits within the schemes that we want to run.”

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/49ers/2016/06/28/offseason-report-chip-kelly-niners-colin-kaepernick-san-francisco/86473278/

    1. GO 49ERS…….KEEP RUNNING THE FOOTBALL (ALL 31 OTHER TEAMS BELIEVE DIFFERENTLY, BUT TRENT’S THE SALMON OF KNOWLEDGE).

      1. It hasn’t taken long for Eagles players to take notice and appreciate the differences between new head coach Doug Pederson’s practice structure compared to Chip Kelly’s.

        In Silicon Valley, however, it is a much different story as the San Francisco 49ers are getting their first taste of ‘Camp Kelly.’

        During Wednesday’s OTA practice, Kelly put the Niners through the paces. To the tune of running 24 offensive plays in eight minutes during a team period, as pointed out by Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com.

        it appears that the fourth-year NFL head coach has not changed his ways after watching the Eagles defense wear down and struggle to get off the field once his offense sputtered and failed to maintain a time of possession edge because of quick three-and-outs.

        http://www.nj.com/eagles/index.ssf/2016/05/is_chip_kelly_already_running_san_francisco_49ers.html

  27. Buccaneers 2016 season preview: CRUSHING THE 49ERS IN WEEK 7
    By Sander Philipse on Jun 28, 2016, 4:00p

    Last year, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers absolutely destroyed the Chip Kelly-led Philadelphia Eagles, 45-17. This year, they get to take on the Chip Kelly-led San Francisco 49ers in their brand new stadium, and the results could be very similar.

  28. Good news for those enjoying Preacher, AMC has renewed it for a 2nd season with 3 more episodes then season 1.

    1. Character investment seems to be a priority, which is a rarity lately. Did you ever get a chance to check out 11/22/63?

      1. I hope the show is popular enough that it can spawn a Cassidy spin-off. Something about his time before meeting up with Preacher would be fun.

  29. NFL league office wants players smeared in an unproven and recanted story, to submit to questioning -‘ For the health and safety of the players’.

    Maybe if the league office was so concerned about the players, they should not have obstructed concussion research.

    Maybe if the league office was not so concerned about making money over the health of its players, they would not schedule Thursday Night Football, with only 3 days rest between games. I hope some day, an NFL schedule maker will be smart enough to use the Bye so they can plan 2 games within 3 weeks with 10 day recovery periods before and after the TNF game.

  30. Why 49ers Quarterback Colin Kaepernick Will, Won’t Start in Week 1

    Blaine Gabbert will be the San Francisco 49ers’ starting quarterback to kick off the 2016 season. Not Colin Kaepernick.

    For now, and why we only discussed Week 1, Gabbert still seems to be the favorite. And here’s the reason why — the 49ers, especially on offense, are undergoing a major transition. This is a young, developing team.

    Developing teams already bring a lot of X-factors and variables to the table. And not all are good. Gabbert is less of a high-low variable than Kaepernick, which likely means there’s a little more consistency there.

    https://ninernoise.com/2016/06/30/why-49ers-quarterback-colin-kaepernick-will-wont-start-in-week-1/

  31. :Chip Kelly’s offense showed signs of being too predictable in Eagles’ loss to Cardinals

    “Chip Kelly’s offense is too predictable” is a sentiment that’s popped up a number of times following losses during his Eagles tenure. It happened after the Eagles-49ers game in 2014. It also happened earlier this season when Josh Huff said the Cowboys called out the Eagles’ plays before the ball was snapped. Following Philadelphia’s 40-17 loss to the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday night, Patrick Peterson echoed the same refrain.

    “Well, you know with Philly, whatever they run in the first 15 plays, they are kind of going to keep running those same plays,” Peterson said. “So you have get a good picture of what those first 15 plays are like. They are a tempo team. Out of those first 15 plays, when the game actually settles down, then we can scan and look at the formation and we knew what they were going to

    http://www.bleedinggreennation.com/2015/12/22/10636432/chip-kelly-offense-eagles-cardinals-patrick-peterson-quote-defense

  32. Apprentice-Chip: Kelly’s Philly failure predictable
    Covers.com

    Philadelphia’s collapse under coach Chip Kelly this season was, if not entirely predictable, at least familiar.

    It fits a pattern we have seen over and over again with NFL head coaches who don’t intern first as an assistant coach in the league.
    Mike Holmgren, one of the six coaches who took two franchises to the Super Bowl, once explained the difference between coaching in college and coaching in the NFL.

    College players, Holmgren said, are “worried about classes and their scholarships, and then looking forward to the NFL in some cases, and what you say goes. I don’t think it’s ever that easy in (the NFL).”

    “In college, you have control of who you get, you have control of your whole situation football-wise “When you get into the NFL, that’s not the case” said Dennis Erickson.

    Two major innovations that shook up the league in recent decades were the West Coast offense (Bill Walsh) and the zone blitz (Dick LeBeau). Otherwise, there really is very little new that succeeds in pro football.

  33. “ENJOY YOUR SUMMER ALL”

    Does this mean.. we won’t be seeing you for awhile ?

    Gee .. I don’t think anyone .. here.. wants you
    to go away … mad .. they just want ..you to ..
    well … you know …

    besides ..

    you need to get that caps lock key fixed

  34. The doldrums has everyone so truculent that some have turned on each other as entertainment. This 4 win season can’t get here soon enough.

    1. Coffee, here here. We probably won’t have a good win total, but this team has a fascinating array of talent. I’m burning with curiosity about what will work and what won’t.

      1078’s 2-12 record felt alot worse than 1979’s 2-12 record. The team was getting better. I feel the same about this season.

  35. The doldrums has everyone so truculent that some have turned on each other as entertainment. This 4 win season can’t get here soon enough.

    Well done.

      1. You’re gonna get dizzy trying to spin all those stories slanted towards Chip. Re-direct your energy for the time being because Chip isn’t going anywhere for at least 2 seasons.

      2. I thought chip only ran 15 – 20 plays per game… what does that say about Hayne if he can’t learn 20 plays? What does that say about the former coaches playbook? Did they only have something like 4 plays?

  36. Sitting down with a cup of joe, pondering the possibilities of how next season may go, I wish to reflect on last season.

    Granted, I was optimistic, but was not predicting a 19-0 season like some others. In fact, I said I would be happy if they got a play off in time. Looking at JT’s last game he coached, the one when he replaced Singletary, he had those players fired up, prepared and focused. The Niners beat the cards 35-7. I expected the same thing, and when he yelled TEMPO about a thousand times in TC, I thought he could do the same thing in 2015. When they started off by beating the Vikings soundly, I thought that he was the right person to lead the Niners.

    However, behind the scenes, Baalke was pulling the strings, and set JT up for failure. Putting Boone at LG was a pure vindictive Baalke move, who was punishing Boone for holding out the season before. Not putting Boone at RT was obtuse, since he was the second best lineman on the team, and Baalke kept Thomas on the bench because he insisted on Boone being LG, which was the position Thomas was drafted for. Trading for Devey, then insisting he play until Kaep was injured, seemed like Baalke wanted to be considered a genius a la ‘Trader Bill’. Too bad it backfired spectacularly. Cutting Hayne on the team bus was another Baalke move, and his insisting on playing cut couch potatoes while Hayne languished on the bench, had Baalke’s fingerprints all over it. The leak fiasco, when JT left until Marathe was fired, was another sign that JT was being manipulated like a puppet. Baalke stepped in for his good buddy and rescinded the firing, just called it a demotion, and kept Marathe around.

    Baalke had total control, and used it like a hammer. Once the season was doomed and Kaep benched, I felt that they were not trying hard to win because they wanted a better draft position. Cleveland is my proof. Baalke meddled in all phases of the game, even so much as to start coaching up the DBs. JT was not too pleased to hear about that.

    The way JH was fired started all of this dumpster fire. Players saw how JH was being stabbed in the back with all the leaks, and the mass retirements showed that the players would show no loyalty because the Niner FO showed no loyalty. Competent coaches avoided the Niners like the plague because they knew what was coming and did not want to destroy their careers. Those coaches saw what happened to JH, and knew they would be next. So Baalke was forced to scrape the bottom of the barrel, even hiring a radio talk show host as the QB coach. That was a fiasco, especially when he coached the QBs to throw 15 % softer, which sounded logical to get more touch on the ball, but just resulted in the Cards game, with 2 pick sixes on the first 2 passes on a play that the QB coach insisted would be automatic completions.

    The leaks continued, in an effort to purge the Niners of the last vestiges of JH. Kaep was the target, and he got the full treatment. The Niner doctors were incompetent, and should be fired for malpractice. It is a miracle that he is still a Niner, and the only logical explanation is that Chip threatened to walk away if they got rid of Kaep. I am ecstatic that Kaep is still on the team, and once healthy, I hope he takes the league by storm again.

    Which gets me to this upcoming season. I am a fan. I want the Niners to win multiple more Lombardis. I may be wildly optimistic that they could avoid a losing season, but am not delusional to think they will go 19-0.

    As a fan, it is not delusional to want the team to do well. As a fan, I will dream of more Lombardis, but also realize that they have a daunting challenge ahead of them. As a fan, I see the posters who predict a 2-14 season as detractors, who come to this site to instill a defeatist attitude, and engage in schadenfreude.

    Even though I may vilify the FO, I still want the Niners to win. I hope Jed grows up and starts acting like a champion, not a chump. I was very pleased to see Chip get influence during the draft, enough so as to help pick the first 2 players. Baalke had his fingerprints over the next 2, with the ACL and red flag picks.

    Chip is the key, and he stood up to Baalke and made him back down. Maybe he was following Bill Walsh’s advice when Bill warned of meddling GMs. Chip, and his positive attitude, may help turn the team around. His handling of the Kaep situation gives me hope. Chip actually should feel good about the upcoming season. He finally has 3 mobile QBs who can effectively run his offense. He seems to have learned from his mistakes. If Chip can resurrect Kaep, he will be hailed as a genius. They finally have a competent O line coach, and Hyde is healthy. All of the WRs are young, but they are fast, and hungry to achieve greatness.

    One play I hope to see a lot of next season would be the 4 deep threat. Chip will send 4 receivers deep, and since the defense may have only 3 DBs deep, there should be at east one player open. Kaep needs to roll out to avoid the pass rush and buy time, but he has hit those receivers in the past, and could do it again.

    Again, I invite all posters to ignore this post, because I have covered the same points many times. However, this is for the new readers.

    As a die hard faithful Niner fan, I will end this post as a fan who wants his team to win, should. GO NINERS.

  37. blah, blah, blah, blah

    Same old, tired, noise. Like an annoying squeak in your car’s dashboard that won’t stop until you smack it.

  38. DeMarco Murray had the Season From Hell in 2015. Fresh off signing a five-year, $42 million contract last offseason (and sending Philadelphia into a collective frenzy by doing so), the 28-year-old running back’s production fell off a cliff.

    Enter Doug Pederson…But when asked at the NFL Combine about why he thought the high-priced back struggled in 2015, Pederson sounded like he believes Chip Kelly was trying to fit a square peg into a round hole.

    http://www.phillyvoice.com/doug-pederson-doesnt-seem-impressed-how-chip-kelly-handled-eagles-running-backs/

    1. DeMarco Murray had the season from hell because with all of that money in his pocket, he couldn’t stick his fat head inside his helmet and show that he was worth more than Ryan Matthews…WHICH OBVIOUSLY HE WASN’T.

      I’d think that Doug Pederson would keep his opinions to himself until he had at least coached one ‘down’ as a HC in the NFL…just respectful…it all comes back on you….

  39. Is Chip Kelly too Stubborn to Make to the Simple Change That Could Save His Career?

    “Run up the score, keep the ball moving, create more chances to score…Silly that we thought such a simple trick would work…As if we’ve forgotten about basketball teams who do nothing but run eventually losing out to the more balanced team…How did we ever pretend to ourselves Kelly invented…”

    1. Oregoniner,

      You and Seb are the Ostriges York Empire loves. With yourr heads in sand, picking your pocket is moronically simple.
      With the above documentation by respected NFL national writers or by simply entering the phrase: Chip Kelly’s predictable offense, 1000 more Kelly experts (who have actually been to numerous Kelly coached games) offer Kelly offensive analysis on his 15 play, playbook.
      I think you meant it all comes back to you, Oregonner, sinking in the pond muck with your Mesozoic Era collegiate playbook, refusing to install NFL level pass patterns that can’t be predictable after 2 seasons.

        1. Since you seem to haunt my posts, and mention my name, I will respond, even though I have tried really hard to ignore your posts.

          Someone mentioned you might get constipated, I think you are already there.

          I am glad you predicted a 2 win season, because if they win more than 2, I will get to bludgeon you constantly for being so wrong. You are not a true Niner fan. You are a plant by another organization that pollute this site with implacably negative drivel. You predicted they would lose their first game last season 0-52. You predicted they would lose before every game. You epitomize what a Niner hater is.

          Ostriges, yourr, moronically? You get so upset over my posts you become discombobulated. It would be wickedly funny, except it is pathetic, and I feel sorry for you.

          Have a nice day.

      1. DTom

        Well so glad I could come up with something to keep me occupied rather than to be caught slapping my monkey off in the corner trying to be clever about a coach who left Philly and couldn’t care less about the ‘fans’ there (both of ’em) “In Philly, they even boo Santa Claus…”

        I do hope you haven’t lost your way home sicko…

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