Top 5 things Kaepernick does well

What are the top-five things Colin Kaepernick does well? This is my list. I’d be interested in reading yours.

1. Run. Kaepernick has some of the greatest playoff rushing performances by a quarterback of all time — 11.3 yards per carry and 2 TDs against the Packers in 2013, 8.9 yards per carry and 1 TD against the Ravens in the Super Bowl, 14 yards per carry against the Packers in 2014 and 11.8 yards per carry against the Seahawks in the NFC Championship.

2. Throw while running. Kaepernick is a natural at this. He looks like Derek Jeter throwing across his body to first base. Kaepernick rarely sets his feet when he throws on the run, but that works out for him because he gets himself into trouble when he sets his feet — he tends to over-stride the intermediate passes and under-stride the short throws. But he can be brilliant when he scrambles and he doesn’t have time to set his feet. His touchdown pass to Anquan Boldin in the NFC Championship game is a good example of that.

3. Throw deep. Kaepernick’s passer rating on throws that traveled more than 30 yards downfield was 125.8. His passer rating on all other throws was 86.4. His rating on throws that traveled 21-30 yards downfield was just  56.6.

4. Throw to his first read. Kaepernick’s passer rating when he passed the ball in 2.5 seconds or less was 101.2, 6th-best in the NFL. But when he held onto the ball for longer than 2.5 seconds, his rating fell to 80.7 — 16th-best in the NFL.

5. Throw against blitzes. Kaepernick’s passer rating against blitzes was 98.3. On the other hand, his rating fell to 82.4 against four-man rushes.

  1. I’d look for Harbaugh to capitalize on number three by calling more of those deep routes, and adding personnel that can facilitate that plan. I really don’t see any need for concern with regards to numbers four and five, and the short throws. This is all about technique and repetition. His work ethic is reported to be stellar, and so I think we’ll see improvement in these areas this year….I would add, every player on this team needs to be better students of the game and situational football. Study, study, study.

    1. In respect to the numbers ascribed to #4 it might deserve a deeper perspective look. It says that he is more effective if he gets rid of the ball in less than 2.5 seconds and that number goes down when he holds it longer. Now does anyone else see that this appears to contradict his skill level and his effectiveness related to the distance of his completions. Now it implies that the less time he holds the ball the more effective he is while contrarily the longer his completions the more effective he is. Logically it should be that the longer a QB holds the ball the more time he has to get set and find an open receiver and those completions should in fact be longer in respect to the more time a receiver has to run his route and get open. I suspect that the unconsidered aspect is the relative different situations that Kaep finds himself in in the sub 2.5 second interval as opposed to the longer one. Some of it might have less to do with Kaep rather the play of the people around him. Example if he is running around buying time due to a offensive line break down and the receivers still have not gotten separation even with the extended length time, that extension of time does not reflect a positive opportunity rather it is only a consequence of a negative situation he finds himself in. So that higher amount of time before release of the ball would also not be reflected in a higher completion percentage rather a lower one. .Ether a breakdown in protection, failure of receivers getting separation or both would create such a result. What I am saying is that is lower percentage of completion rate when holding the ball longer is a reflective of his ability to extend plays under adverse conditions as opposed to his inability to complete longer plays as might apply to other QB’s. Most QB’s have a lower completion rate the longer the passing distance.

        1. I do understand that some of you can not deal with more than one concept at a time. What I am pointing our requires an ability to compare and contrast multiple concepts. Look at the numbers they will tell you something.

          1. Reading your comments requires us to deal with only one concept: Kaepernick can do no wrong.

            So far, you have blamed Harbaugh, Roman, the offensive line, and the receivers for the 49ers’ offensive struggles while absolving Kaepernick of all responsibility. You also have taken aim at Baalke.

          2. “Look at the numbers they will tell you something.”

            Yep. One thing they say is that Kaepernick is a turnover machine in Seattle.

      1. Need to clarify. This is in respect to the seemingly contradiction of numbers and percentages mentioned in #3 and the ones mentioned in #4.

        1. Willtalk,
          you have to understand that Claude Balls doesn’t post anything of significance here. He never has. He picks through peoples stuff and criticizes like a type A nagging wife does to a husband.
          Claude truly doesn’t comprehend the sport of football in it’s purest form. He is a stat junky and an ex attorney who loves to poke holes in peoples posts. He is here for the debate pure and simple.
          Ignore him.

          1. It’s better to attack the arguements, not the man. We’re trying to get past the food fights on here, and it’s been a better environment lately, IMO.

          2. That’s pretty funny coming from the guy who judges QBs and offenses solely by their passing yardage.* But go ahead, please educate me; tell me all about “football in its purest form.”

            * Except when the QB is Kaepernick

          3. BT,
            Claude Balls Warning’s comments are belittling. He took Willtalk’s comments and responded with his usual I know more than you tone. I’m just pointing that out. Especially since IMO Claude doesn’t know much. Read his comments. My guess would be that 75% of his comments are based on poking holes in bloggers write-ups. That’s straight up annoying.

          4. Where’s old coach?

            I suggest that this subthread supports the theory that the blog’s improved tone has been due in part to the absence of certain commenters.

          5. I see Claude,
            if I leave then you can go on being your annoying self and picking peoples posts undisturbed. How selfish of me to rain on your parade while you belittle people.

        2. Claude i believe it is a little of both certain personalities were absent for a while also Grant went away from his more incendiary posts but i also believe this format is not near as user frienly as the previous but i could call you a negative name if it makes you feel better.

          1. old coach:

            … but i could call you a negative name if it makes you feel better

            Thanks, but it looks like bay is handling those duties today.

          2. OC,
            nothing against Grant but I cannot stand the new format. They on the back end they improved the technology but on the front end the user experience is the equivalent of having to read Claudes posts daily. Not fun.

  2. I would include “he is decisive in big moments”. You can argue whether or not he is clutch, or whether he makes good/ bad decisions when the game is on the line (and I know different people have different takes), but one thing he has shown is that he isn’t a shrinking violet in pressure moments. He is decisive, even if sometimes its the wrong decision. Its a trait winners have – make a decision and go with it when the game is on the line, don’t get caught hesitating or unable to make a decision. Over time hopefully he makes far more correct decisions than wrong ones in these moments.

      1. Haven’t looked at him yet. But on first blush he is small and would likely be a late round/ undrafted FA guy, so unlikely to contribute as a WR as a rookie… could be a decent KR/PR option though.

    1. Dead on Scoot. He’s more Brett Fah-vra than Joe or Steve…for that reason…he’ll take ridiculous heat from SF fans.

      1. Like I said, complain about the decisions he makes if you wish, but don’t complain about the fact he is willing to make decisions in the heat of the moment.

  3. The best thing about these traits is he’s doing it early in his career as a starter. He was top ten in QB rating and QBR, has won in the regular season and playoffs, and is still learning the nuances of the position.

    This is why I think the Niners need to sign him long term this offseason. There is really no upside to waiting until next season. He’s shown them he can win right now and will only get better as he gains experience.

      1. That’s what I’m thinking razor – if they can get him to agree to such a deal. Shorter term commitment that gives them a year of Kaep post Harbaugh if Jim doesn’t extend, see if he can operate in another system.

      2. I disagree fellas! I think he deserves more then cutler and romo and I believe he gets paid accordingly. There is NO way cutler, romo, Ryan, stafford should be getting paid more… Kaep is a better QB and one that has accomplished more then those guys combined in 2 years.. I see a 6 year 128 mil with 50 guareenteed.. The contract will be back loaded to help out with the next 2-3 years… This guy will be the best QB in the game very soon..

        1. Why does everyone buy into the concept of getting paid more than other QB’s that you are better than? Those QB’s are over paid. Kaep is smart enough to realize that if he takes too much of SF’s cap space it will leave less for other players and the team as a whole will suffer. He chose football over baseball when at the time it appeared that he had a far better future in baseball. He loves the game and plays less for the money than that love. He also wants to win and is smart enough to realize that on a winning team he will make far more in endorsements than he would for an also ran. He will not break the bank and take a very team friendly contract.

      3. There will have to be some positions that have to take a hard hit in terms of quality if he is signed for that type of ridiculous salary.

        1. $15 million a year for a starting QB = ridiculous? MidWest, that’s well below the going rate for starting franchise QBs. Fact is, if you resign your franchise QB they will take up cap space, no getting around it.

        2. Not if he truly wants the team to keep some key personnel it isn’t. And he isn’t a franchise QB until he learns to play the position better.

          1. Midwest, in your opinion, where does Kaep rank in terms of starting QBs in the NFL? Is he top 10? Top 20?

            For mine I’d say he is around the middle of the pack, right now. Say somewhere around 15th. He’s shown he can win lots of games with either legs or arm, and gotten to the SB and NFCCG in his two years starting. He’s also shown he has some weaknesses in his game which stops him from being the top echelon of QBs as of today.

            So what is Kaep worth then? If he didn’t currently have a contract, and in consideration of what other QBs are paid, what would you pay him to keep him, just for one year?

            The 15th highest average annual salary for a QB (including bonuses) for 2013 was $15.5M, and that was Matt Schaub (yes, Kaep is definitely worth at least Schaub money). So given the current market for QBs I’d say he’s worth around $15M a year right now for this team. That isn’t ridiculous money, that is simply the market.

            All this talk about if he wants to be a team guy he should take less money, what is a reasonable amount of “home team discount” for you? And why is Kaep the only one on the team that has to give the team this discount? Why isn’t Frank Gore getting any grief for not being a “team guy” and asking to take less money? What about Willis? Bowman? Plenty of players on this team are on good money and eating a hole in the salary cap.

            Your dislike of Kaep is clouding your judgement on this one.

          2. He’s in the same range that Alex Smith was in 2012, so placing him in that range is fair Scooter. However, paying Kaep $15 million just because the Texans were foolish enough to overpay Schaub isn’t exactly a good argument.
            I think a three year $26 million with $10 million guaranteed plus incentives that could bump it up to $32 million and a team option to opt out of it after the first year along with a player’s option’s after the second year makes sense right now.

          3. Smith signed a three year $25 million with $9 million guaranteed with little in terms of incentives and no opt out clause, so how exactly would Kaep be getting less Scooter?

          4. Your dislike of Kaep is clouding your judgement on this one.

            No dislike Scooter. I just don’t want the team to pay him that much unless he is able to take the next step.

          5. Smith signed a 3 year deal worth $27,775,000. Thus Kaep would be signing for less.

            “I just don’t want the team to pay him that much unless he is able to take the next step”.

            So you believe he should be paid around the same amount as the likes of Smith (who after 6 years of futility finally played a solid season before hitting FA, and had virtually no interest as a FA), Carson Palmer and Michael Vick. That is where you think Kaep sits on a value chart?

          6. I don’t know what to say, but let’s bump up the incentives to where Kaep could earn up to $36 million if he meets them.

          7. You are definitely on the right track with the incentives Midwest. Any deal they do with Kaep this offseason (if any) needs to have escalators in it (or de-escalators like Brooks’ deal). Part and parcel of negotiating a deal with a player that still has a limited sample size of production to go on.

          8. And why is Kaep the only one on the team that has to give the team this discount?

            I don’t know that anyone has to give the team a discount, but QB salaries have a disproportionate affect on the salary cap and have been rising at a faster rate than the cap.

    1. Signing him long term has more risk than simply “can he get it done in this system?”. Not having Harbaugh committed beyond the next two years has to put the question in decision-makers’ minds as to whether Kaep is a system QB, or can he succeed without Harbaugh. So far he has not shown much aptitude in reading defences post-snap and making progressions, which most offensive systems would need him to do. He needs to show real progress in these areas next season before I’d feel comfortable committing to him, or make sure you have a succession plan in place for Harbaugh that would be able to accommodate a QB with these limitations.

      You’d hate to commit to Kaep, then have Harbaugh up and leave and find out too late Kaep is non-functional in another offensive system.

      1. Harbaugh/Kaepernick will both be extended before deployed into the 2014 Campaign. Do you really think a competitor like Harbaugh is going to turn tale and run after suffering the latest defeat to Pete Carroll? I think not. He threw down the glove, and Pete not only picked it up….he put it on, and moon walked {} into the NFL record books as the 2013 Champion. Harbaugh must be seething.

        @Scooter, what’s your evaluation of Dustin Vaughn as perhaps a backup?

        1. Another guy I’ve not taken a look at yet. I don’t tend to look at the late round/ undrafted guys much until after the combine and pro days, when there is more info available on them and you have a better sense of the positions (and projected rounds) the 49ers are showing interest in.

          1. Oh heck no – I’ve really only looked at WRs, CBs and Safety’s in any depth, as well as some DL, DE/OLBs and interior OL. Not enough info to make a Big Board, especially since so many OTs are projected to be first rounders.

          2. The next most important thing after finding a QB is keeping your QB upright. If the OT talent is as good as the experts are saying then there will be a lot of OTs going in rounds 1 and 2.

          3. Check this one out:

            S CALVIN PRYOR
            WR BRANDIN COOKS
            OREGON STATE
            CB BRADLEY ROBY
            OHIO STATE
            COLORADO STATE
            DT KELCY QUARLES
            SOUTH CAROLINA
            RB JEREMY HILL
            QB LOGAN THOMAS
            VIRGINIA TECH
            TE JOE DON DUNCAN
            DIXIE STATE
            CB AARON COLVIN
            OLB TYLER STARR
            SOUTH DAKOTA

        2. Great draft Razor. We keep saying player x won’t fall all the time, but it’s clear a lot of players will fall because there are so many underclassmen in this draft. That’s why I want them to use their picks in the first 3 rounds, unless they can trade one or two for a higher round pick in 2015. That’s the only way I’d trade any of them. They don’t have to move up this year unless they are dead set on one of the top 2 Safeties or CB’s.

      2. Good point Scooter but I can’t see them not extending Harbaugh this offseason unless Harbaugh doesn’t want it.

        As far as committing to Kap, he’s shown an ability to win games. He’s not always pretty doing it, but he is not afraid of the big stage and has won more important games in a year and a half than guys like Cutler and Romo have in their entire careers. Waiting a year only makes it tougher on the team because I’m not sure what they are expecting to see next year that they haven’t already. Yes he needs to work on fundamentals and his pocket presence but he’s winning.

      3. Niners will sign Kaep to a 5 to 7 year contract this year, if both are interested in getting it done. If it’s 5 years, look for a $100M contract with $40m guaranteed. If it’s a 7 year contract, look for a $130m contract with $55m guaranteed. It’s going to be in that range. As for Harbaugh… he’s going to get paid more than $6m/year for his extention… 3 or 5 years.

      4. I think some of you guys give Harbaugh too much credit for Alex’s turnaround and Kaeps success. Alex did as much if not more for KC. While Harbaugh is a QB friendly coach he also carries some libilities that hurt Kaep. The over complex offense and his inability to evaluate wr. He is also just learning how to put together a limited 53 man roster, which is something he didn’t have to do in college. The musical chairs roster changes all season give evidence to that. It’s actually possible that Kaep might do far better for another system and another coach.

        1. How can you give Harbaugh too much credit, when he was the one who targeted Kaepernick in the draft. Yikes! Are there things Harbaugh and his staff can do better? You bet! Starting with situational football…

          1. I am glad to read that some people are also beginning to question the mortality of Coach Harbaugh. It’s approaching year 4 now, let’s see what we’ve got.

  4. Cohn, what are your thoughts on cutting Gore if he doesn’t take a pay cut or a short, cheap extension? Who else would you cut in order to make cap space?

  5. Grant,
    Is this article on CK the calm before the storm?

    But in truth, Kaep’ flaws have been presented here ad nauseam.
    We are still a SB contender going into 2014 and that even takes into account CK’ flaws. So if CK can improve in other facets of his game we will be in the hunt for the ring.
    This is the year we stare down and overtake the c-hawks.

    1. I’m not Scooter or Jack, but I think the odds are 20% all around. That is 20% that he drafts for a need, 20% that he drafts the BPA regardless of the position, 20% that he trades up with it, 20% that he trades down with it, and 20% that he trades for a future pick with it.

    2. I think it is a low chance he uses a pick in round 2 to acquire a pick or picks next year, unless he gets a 2015 1st rounder for it. I doubt a team will give up a 1st round pick for either pick 24 or pick 29 of the 2nd round though.

      One of the 3rd rounders for a 2nd next year however, I can see happening, especially if they get a 3rd round comp pick.

  6. I throw this question out to everyone who believes waiting another year before extending him is the right move: What is it you expect/need to see next year to make you believe he’s worth signing long term that you haven’t seen already? If he puts up similar numbers to this season and they continue to win games but he’s not the polished QB everyone envisions, do you suggest they walk away from him? If that is what you suggest, what is your plan for them at QB?

    Personally I’ve seen enough to know he’s a good long term option and I think the team feels the same way. Waiting until his contract up is not good for the team in any way quite frankly unless they believe he’s suddenly going to hit a wall. Considering he’s gone to a SB and NFCCG in a year and half of starting, that is unlikely how they are thinking. If they do wait they wind up facing three options:

    1) Signing him long term to a bigger deal than he would get this season because they have no leverage once he hits FA.

    2) Franchising him, which completely blows up their cap and forces them to release other players due to the high franchise number for QB’s.

    3) Letting him go to another team as a FA.

    So unless you believe he is incapable of getting better and will regress, there is no viable reason to wait to extend him. This is when the team has some leverage; next year they don’t.

      1. BT,

        I doubt they can sign him long term if he goes into opening day without a new deal. If they decide around Thanksgiving that they want to do something I guarantee his agent is asking for the moon and not afraid of them saying no because he’s going into FA in a couple of months. This is the only time the team has any leverage unless he gets hurt next year which is not a good prospect for either side

          1. Quite a bit Jack. He’s not going to make much this season for starters, and there is also the fact that most players would rather have security on a long term deal rather than risk injury.

            I don’t know what Kap is asking for, but I do know it only goes up the longer you wait and could go up a lot if he reaches FA.

          2. It is leverage Jack. Kap is going to make under a million dollars this season. If he suffers a major injury, he may never see a big pay day again. That’s a reality and is a reason why players prefer long term contracts to the Franchise tag. If they let him get to FA they have nothing but the Franchise tag at their disposal which is not a good option.

            Kap can decide not to do it, but it’s a risk, and this is the only time the team will have this tool in the box.

          3. The risk of injury is always there. He has the leverage because even if the 49ers want to get it done now he doesn’t have to do anything unless they meet his terms.

          4. If he signs now, he gets a big SB now and the risk is mitigated. If he doesn’t sign now and gets injured next year, he loses the big money deal he could have had now. That is leverage and it’s the only time the team has it. If he doesn’t like the number they offer, he can reject it, but there isn’t a player out there that wouldn’t rather get a deal done before their contract runs out, so that is a factor in the Niners favor.

          5. Joe Flacco was the exception not the rule, and he did it because they were offering him about 5-6 mill lower than he eventually received after being a starter in the league for 5 years. Very different situation to Kap.

          6. Jack:

            You don’t have to call it leverage, but there is a quid pro quo this year that could lead Kaepernick to sign a “below market deal” that won’t exist next year.

            Specifically, Kaepernick is under contract in 2014 for roughly $1 million. If he signs a deal this year, he will receive significantly more money and guarantees this year. To get that money this year instead of waiting until next year, he will have to agree to take less than he thinks he will be worth on the open market next year. If he won’t do that, the 49ers have no incentive to sign him this year.

          7. How is Flacco’s situation different than Kaepernick’s?

            He was in the exact same situation going into 2013, the last year of his rookie deal. Instead of taking the Ravens offer he bet on his ability to lead the team to a SB and it paid off. If Kaepernick is confident in his abilities why wouldn’t he do the same?

            The injury concern is always there, but that doesn’t mean the 49ers have any leverage whatsoever in negotiations right now.

            Unless no other team will pay Kaepernick what he feels he deserves he has all of the leverage.

          8. I understand that Claude, but it’s not like his salary from the 49ers is his only source of revenue. He is likely getting paid very nicely with his endorsement deals.

            Is it possible that he chooses to take a deal this year? Of course it is, but it’s not because the team has any leverage over him.

          9. Jack,

            You are arguing semantics. If you don’t like “leverage” we can use “incentive” or a “golden carrot” if you wish. This is the only time a team has the cards in their favor because they know the player wants security and in Kaps case is not making much in the final year of his contract.

            Flacco’s situation was different because he had a much larger body of work. He had started nearly 3 times as many games as Kap had by that point. Kap is also a QB who runs quite often giving him a higher risk of injury.


            I agree. The onus is there for both sides to get a deal done now because both can benefit. Next year becomes onesided in favor of the player.

          10. Oops, this should go here.


            … it’s not like his salary from the 49ers is his only source of revenue.

            I agree. Given that fact, I hope he sees the wisdom in taking less than full market value in order to provide the team with sufficient cap room to continue surrounding him with top tier talent. The problem is, I don’t know if the two sides will be close in their current assessments of his market value.

          11. I keep seeing the figures of 3 years and $45 mil thrown around for the type of deal that would be good for both sides.

            That is actually a worse deal for SF than the first 3 years for the Flacco deal in Baltimore.

          12. That I agree with Jack. It either has to be a longer deal or a shorter deal for less money to give him more this season. 3 years and 45 mill is not good for the team and will strap them financially against the cap. I think they wind up doing a 5-6 year deal when it’s all said and done.

          13. Also, I assume that the proposed deal is for an extension, so when judging the salary cap impact over the next three years (2014-16), the 49ers may come out ahead of the Ravens for 2013-15.

          14. Flacco’s deal averages slightly over $12mil for the first 3 years. I think it will be tough for the 49ers to be lower than that without adding more years and $$ to it.

          15. Jack:

            Then the 49ers will do better than the Ravens in every year of the contract.

            Here’s a link to a discussion of Flacco’s contract. I am assuming the numbers are accurate. If not, then my analysis may change.

            Cap numbers for Flacco’s first four years under the new contract:

            2013 6.80
            2014 14.80
            2015 14.55
            2016 28.55

            Let’s assume the 49ers give Kaep a $20 million guaranteed signing bonus (it makes makes the math easier), keep his 2013 salary at $800,000, and pay the remaining $25 million out at salaries of $8, 8, and 9 million for 2015-17.

            Kaepernick’s cap numbers for the four years of the contract would be:

            2014 5.80
            2015 13.00
            2016 13.00
            2017 14.00

            Of course, Kaepernick would be in line for another contract in 2018, and QB salaries aren’t going to decrease.

          16. Jack:

            … that’s some fancy accounting. ; )

            Well, when you don’t know anything about football, you have to bring something to the table.

        1. My point, not specified, was that they start working in good faith with the agent in the summer, but are not necessarily constrained by Opening Day. That only works if CK & Agent buy the good faith. I agree that there is a tipping point where they lose some leverage. If nobody feels low-balled or disrespected, then they could be fine tuning an agreement that gets done by T-day. Obviously just a hunch.

          1. Man! You guys are talking about when he proves himself; not IF he proves it. I’m not a believer; there are too many “needed improvements” to his game. Don’t resign him until ’15 ….rather safe than Druckenmiller.

          2. Oregoniner, prove himself what are you talking about? The guy is 26 years old and has been to a SB and NFC title games in two years.. A lot of the QBs that are getting paid a ridicoulus amount have not even sniffed those accomplishments!!!!! The kid is a star and is only going to get better.. This is the niners QB for the next 8-10 years so you better wrap your head around that..

        2. … it’s not like his salary from the 49ers is his only source of revenue.

          I agree. Given that fact, I hope he sees the wisdom in taking less than full market value in order to provide the team with sufficient cap room to continue surrounding him with top tier talent. The problem is, I don’t know if the two sides will be close in their current assessments of his market value.

    1. I outlined my reasons in my previous post. If they don’t extend Harbaugh soon then they have to be concerned how a QB that hasn’t shown much ability reading coverages post snap and going through progressions will fare without an offense designed to minimise this weakness.

      If I am the 49ers I want to see him show solid improvement next season in these areas. Show he can be an effective passer going past his first read, and show he understands which guys are going to come open based on coverage. If he doesn’t, he will always be limited to the type of offense he is in now, which means if they sign him to a long term deal they can’t bring in a coach that runs a different type of offense.

      1. I agree with jack that the team has no leverage! Lock him up right now or you will pay a HEFTY price next off season! He will get upwards to 100 mil! That’s his value unfortunately cause of the stupid contracts other teams did recently! As far as him being a system guy is ridicoulus! System guys are QBs that are limited in athletic ability and are suited to play more of an conservative approach… Alex Smith who I like a lot is a system guy.. No one in this game has Kaeps ability…

      2. The only issue I have with your point Scooter is we don’t know what they are teaching him. We don’t know if it’s a one read offense, we don’t know if they have coached him to do what he does, we don’t know much of anything because they haven’t, and won’t tell us. All we can do is speculate and that’s not a good position to be in when deciding how good a QB can be.

        1. Alex Smith was able to go through progressions in the same offense, and identify through coverage where to find the open guy. I am sure they haven’t taken going through progressions out of the system altogether.

          1. Scooter,

            I don’t think Smith went through progressions in this offense any more than Kap does. We have seen Kap do it on occasion, but the offense seems to be focused on setting up a designated receiver while the others are setting up to block or run defenders off. The difference was Smith took the short option that Kap has been reluctant to take.

            Dilfer talked about the 70′s style of offense the Niners passing game seems to adhere too, which is why I think that is the area they need to work on.

          2. Kaep goes through his progressions as much as Alex Smith did. The difference is Alex learned to make the decision and trust his receivers. Smith’s ability to go through progressions was on display in the playoffs against the Indy (especially after Jamaal Charles went down). Kaep will get there, but he’s not there yet.

    2. “What is it you expect/need to see next year to make you believe he’s worth signing long term that you haven’t seen already?

      The ability to make precise decisions in pressure moments. Against Seattle in Seattle and again in the playoffs.

      1. Prime,

        He’s won more games in the past two years than most of the QB’s in this league and is entering only his second offseason as a starter. I get wanting to see him win the SB and NFCCG the past two years but, that isn’t what you base his long term future on. You do realize that the guys viewed as elite have lost a number of playoff games right?

        1. It’s the fashion in which he lost those games which puts doubt in my mind. Poor decision making is one if those concerns and fundamentally he has not improved since being in the league for now 3 years.
          Throwing out a 5-10 year deal to a guy with a high ceiling is risky when he has major concerns in other areas. I think another year to prove himself will result in a win win for everyone. He gets to cash in if he can show improvement in those areas and if he doesn’t, the Niners are not strapped for years with just a running QB.

          1. The point is letting him get to FA is not a win for the Niners Prime. As I said above, they face a bigger contract or a Franchise designation both of which hurt the team more than signing him now.

            You’re getting too caught up in small details. His fundamentals haven’t kept him from being a top ten rated QB, and the decision making has not been bad. That is perception by the fans who don’t know what the play call is and are more focused on the result.

            Kap as is, is better than 2 thirds of the starting QB’s in this league. Letting him get to FA will be a mistake unless Kap forces them to do it by turning down their offer.

          2. Primetime—I agree with rocket. I don’t think think that Kaeps decisions have been that poor. The play to Crabs was not a poor decision. It was a good shot to take in the corner of the end zone. It was only because of a good play by Sherman resulting in a tip and the linebacker being in the right spot to catch it that gave it a a bad result. Other wise it is just an incomplete pass. It is also BS about using that as an example for not going through progressions. You don’t go through progressions on a timing pattern to the corner of the end zone. Magnifying certain plays to create doubt is an excuse to coming up with a predetermined conclusion that already existed. You are just rationalizing your already existing doubt.

    3. What is it you expect/need to see next year to make you believe he’s worth signing long term that you haven’t seen already?

      1. Ability to get past his first read.
      2. Ability to better feel pressure in and out of the pocket.
      3. Better at reading what a defense gives him.
      4. Better pocket QB fundamentals.
      5. Better touch on short passes.
      6. Having the ability to be a better game manager.
      7. Snapping the ball quicker so to avoid delay of game calls.
      8. Less staring down of his first read.
      9. Show a little more maturity off the field.
      In short, get out of the Michael Vick mindset and into the Steve Young mindset.

      If he puts up similar numbers to this season and they continue to win games but he’s not the polished QB everyone envisions, do you suggest they walk away from him?

      No, just don’t overpay him.

      If that is what you suggest, what is your plan for them at QB?

      There always needs to be a Plan B, otherwise we run the risk of having the same problem that teams like the Colts and Bears ran into when their star QBs each went down respectively.

      I think they get a deal done, but Kaep needs to take the next step in his development to warrant a big contract.

      1. Mid,

        He had improved on much of what you listed here by the end of the season. His second half was as good as any QB in the league. There is also nothing wrong with his maturity. He’s been a model citizen off the field and a very motivated and hard worker on it. The only comparison to Vick you can make is running ability.

        He has around 30 starts on his resume and has led the team to a SB and NFCCG appearance in that time. The standard being set in here is unrealistic imo. Not many QB’s accomplish what this kid has in a short period of time.

        Right now there is no other option at QB and unless they take a QB with a high pick, there won’t be one next year either, so signing him is a must imo.

        1. He had improved on much of what you listed here by the end of the season.

          No he didn’t.

          There is also nothing wrong with his maturity.

          His ridiculous comment with the Dolphins hat fiasco and throwing Harbaugh under the bus for his forcing Harbaugh to call a timeout to avoid a delay of game on the final drive of the Super Bowl says otherwise.

          The only comparison to Vick you can make is running ability.

          There’s plenty more and you know it.

          The standard being set in here is unrealistic imo. Not many QB’s accomplish what this kid has in a short period of time.

          So wanting him to earn that huge contract by becoming a better fundamentally sound QB is unrealistic? And few QBs have the type of system that Kaep is in.

          Signing him is a must only if he takes the next step Rocket, and only then.

          1. Mid,

            After the loss to the Panthers Kap put up the following numbers the final 7 games, 3 of which were against top 5 defenses:

            61% completion percentage
            12 TD’s
            2 Int’s
            6 wins
            1 loss

            2-1 in the playoffs against 3 top 5 defenses and was the only offense against Seattle.

            Don’t talk to me about fundamentals when the guy is putting up numbers like this and winning games. It’s a myopic view of the situation. He needs to get better as all young QB’s do but you are putting far too much significance on things like this instead of what matters most.

            Your examples of his so called immaturity are weak at best. To call the Dolphin hat thing a fiasco is hyperbole as it was over and forgotten quickly. He also didn’t throw anybody under a bus when talking about the final drive in the SB. He pointed out the obvious which was that they had the right play called and probably score if they don’t run out of time. Immaturity is getting into trouble off the field and not working at your game to get better. That is not Kap in any way shape or form.

            He is not like Vick mid. He’s already more accurate and won more big games than Vick did in his entire career with the Falcons. He’s also not immature off the field like Vick was with the entourage and eventual dog fighting ring. The running aspect of their games is comparable but that’s where it ends.

            You need to face reality on the contract situation. He’s going to get a big contract. He’s already achieved more than guys like Cutler and Romo have in their entire careers. It’s already been determined by what he’s shown in a short period of time. He’s earned it by winning and being a catalyst in the success of the offense. If he doesn’t get it from the Niners he will get it somewhere else. Wanting to wait until he fulfills your expectations results in a higher contract and possible Franchise tag. There is no upside to waiting for the 9ers unless they have decided he’s not their guy which I highly doubt is the case. The only way this doesn’t get done is if they don’t give him a number his agent believes is fair.

            1. And Kaepernick completed just 54.8 percent of his passes in the playoffs despite playing the Packers and Panthers. The Packers defense gave up a 61.2 completion percentage during the regular season and they lost Sam Shields in the first quarter against the 49ers. And the Panthers defense gave up a 65.8 completion percentage during the regular season and they lost Quintin Mikell in the second quarter against the Niners.

              Kaepernick played Washington, St. Louis, Tampa Bay and Atlanta down the stretch of the regular season. All four of those defenses finished bottom-nine in the NFL in completion percentage allowed.

          2. After the loss to the Panthers Kap put up the following numbers the final 7 games, 3 of which were against top 5 defenses:

            61% completion percentage
            12 TD’s
            2 Int’s
            6 wins
            1 loss

            That coincided with Kaep getting his security blanket in Crabtree back.

            Don’t talk to me about fundamentals when the guy is putting up numbers like this and winning games. It’s a myopic view of the situation. He needs to get better as all young QB’s do but you are putting far too much significance on things like this instead of what matters most.

            Let’s just ask Russell Wilson about that.

            Your examples of his so called immaturity are weak at best. To call the Dolphin hat thing a fiasco is hyperbole as it was over and forgotten quickly. He also didn’t throw anybody under a bus when talking about the final drive in the SB. He pointed out the obvious which was that they had the right play called and probably score if they don’t run out of time.

            His ya’ll must be bored comment HAS NOT been forgotten, just excused by Kaepologists.
            From Kaep’s interview:
            There was one play we had that we had called a timeout on that I think would have walked in, and the play clock was running down so we called a timeout,” Kaepernick said.

            Kaepernick added that he believes if Harbaugh hadn’t called timeout, they still would have snapped the ball before getting a delay of game penalty, and that he would have scored a touchdown on the play.

            “It would have been close, but I think we might have been able to get that play off,” Kaepernick said.
            Your comment is way off the mark Rocket.

            Immaturity is getting into trouble off the field and not working at your game to get better.

            That isn’t the only definition of immaturity and you know it.

            He is not like Vick mid.

            Kaep’s current skill set say otherwise. You need to face reality on the contract situation. He’s going to get a big contract. He’s already achieved more than guys like Cutler and Romo have in their entire careers. It’s already been determined by what he’s shown in a short period of time. He’s earned it by winning and being a catalyst in the success of the offense.

            Great examples of overpaid QBs. That doesn’t help your argument at all. However, Brees and Rodgers helps solidify mine. They earned their big contracts and Kaep hasn’t even come close to that.

            Wanting to wait until he fulfills your expectations results in a higher contract and possible Franchise tag. There is no upside to waiting for the 9ers unless they have decided he’s not their guy which I highly doubt is the case.

            My expectations huh? Those are the expectations of an elite QB and EVERYBODY wants that. It’s your prerogative if you’d rather have a Sanchez/Flaccid/Vick situation on your hands. Not mine.

            The only way this doesn’t get done is if they don’t give him a number his agent believes is fair.

            Anything higher that $8-10 million a year is foolish at this point, especially if he really does want the team to keep some much needed talent around him.

          3. MidwestDyn— Your examples of the ” Hat” and the ‘ time out issue” are examples of your lack of objectivity. You are looking for examples to validate your preconceived bias. Those are not good examples. In respect to the hat incident I would agree with Kaeps position. Most fans are delusional when it comes to their perspective of what constitutes team loyalty. A player is not a fan. A Player is a part of the team already and doesn’t use or need gear to shoe that. Fans use the gear to create the illusion that they are part of the team. As to Harbaugh being thrown under the bus, I did not read Kaeps comments that way. But you see actually Harbaugh should have been thrown under the bus about the mismanagement of the clock problems via penalties and called time outs long before that. The real problem was always the delay in relaying the play calls into the QB. That was a problem when Alex was under center as well. It was just that the QB always were given the blame. Most people are talking about a reasonable extension not a huge contract. Of course to you any type of extension reasonable or not is probably not what your wish for. You will always reset the bar to an unreasonable level.

          4. Yeah, MidWest, Prime, everyone else who thinks Kaepernick hasn’t yet become a great QB, Willtalk is right. You need to be objective.

            Apparently, the secret to being objective about Kaepernick is assign him no responsibility for anything that goes wrong. Everyone else is to blame.

          5. Grant,

            HIs completion percentage in those games is irrelevant considering he played in a freezer and on the road against one of the hottest teams and best defenses in the league. He made plays in both and won. That is the bottomline.

          6. Mid,

            I feel like I’m in the Twilight zone because the discussion we are having right now is the same sort of discussion I used to have with fans on here who didn’t give Smith his due. If Smith had stayed and put up this kind of season I guarantee you and a few others would not be down on him, so why do you feel this way about Kap? His fundamentals have not held him back, he has performed well and won in spite of that. There is no question he needs to work on his pocket presence but I saw improvement in that area even if you didn’t, and his play in the second half of the season when Crabs returned was as good as any QB in the league and better than most.

            I’m also not sure why you continue to tout Russell Wilson in these discussions because he’s really not much further ahead in his game than Kap is. He plays nearly the exact same style and system. Their numbers were similar. The difference is his defense and ST’s got him a giant lead in the SB. Is it that black and white for you? Kap didn’t win the SB so he doesn’t deserve the new contract or recognition?

            We obviously disagree on the definition of immaturity and throwing somebody under the bus because I see neither in the examples you’ve given. To still hold a grudge over the Dolphin hat episode says more about your immaturity and sensitivity to be quite honest.

            Great examples of overpaid QBs. That doesn’t help your argument at all. However, Brees and Rodgers helps solidify mine. They earned their big contracts and Kaep hasn’t even come close to that.

            Mid you need to do some homework and stop comparing Kap to the current version of Brees and Rodgers. Brees had one very good season in San Diego in 5 years. They went to the playoffs once and were one and done. In his third year he put up 11 TD’s and 15 Ints. Kap dwarfs what Brees did at the same point in time and don’t play the “he had better players around him card.” Brees had some good players around him in San Diego offensively. Even after a less than stellar 5 year run with the Chargers, he got a 10 mill a year deal from the Saints and that was coming off of a serious shoulder injury. 10 mill mid, and that was 8 years ago.

            Rodgers didn’t even start until his 4th year in the league and they extended him before he became anything close to the current version of Rodgers. If you see a QB do the things these guys did and that Kap has done in the last year and half, you sign them long term.

            My expectations huh? Those are the expectations of an elite QB and EVERYBODY wants that. It’s your prerogative if you’d rather have a Sanchez/Flaccid/Vick situation on your hands. Not mine.

            Your expectations are out of whack, that’s the problem. You aren’t allowing for the fact he’s only started for a year and a half and instead are acting like he’s been around for 5 years and hasn’t gotten any better. The fact is he’s improved by leaps and bounds the more he’s played and got to this level faster than anyone ever could have expected considering the offense he came from at Nevada. You are holding him to an unreasonable standard for where he is in his development. He’s going into his second offseason as a starter. Think about that when you rant about his fundamentals and development.

            Anything higher that $8-10 million a year is foolish at this point, especially if he really does want the team to keep some much needed talent around him.

            He’s not going to sign for that mid, nor should he. That is not a realistic number to throw out for a QB who has achieved what he already has. Brees got that 8 years ago with a lesser resume over a longer period of time.

            Kap made a point of saying he knows he must be reasonable in his demands because he wants the team to be able to keep other players. Know what that is? It’s maturity and not many QB’s would make that statement especially when they are on the verge of getting their first big contract.

          1. His defense was broken down to the point that it had a linebacker who couldn’t run still on the field at the end of the game so no.

            Kaepernick has a tremendous team around him that masks his shortcomings as a quarterback.

          2. So that’s a no then. For all the masking the team does for Kap, he’s done a lot of masking for an offense that couldn’t run the ball very well in the playoffs. Instead of focusing on completion percentage why don’t you also point out that Kap nearly doubled Rodgers in offensive production in that game, or that Rodgers averaged fewer yards a completion?

            We are also comparing his completion percentage in this game to that of a 9 year veteran many consider the best QB in the game. Not overly fair wouldn’t you agree? Meanwhile Kap has beaten the best QB in the game 3 times running.

    4. You point out the main reason that teams prefer to sign players before their contract is up. Waiting until their contract year gives the player more leverage. I am increasingly amaze by the inability of most fans to grasp simple business concepts in respect to their teams.

      1. Meanwhile, I’m amazed at how many fans are willing to throw Baalke and Harbaugh under the bus (you know, the GM and HC that have brought the team out of the ashes and made it a contender again) in order to excuse Kaep’s current limitations as a QB.

  7. So far,his best trait is to win nearly all but his last game of the season. His next best,is..he plays for the 49ers. Fans would agree.

  8. CK needs big legs to compliment his big arm. I’ve been mulling over trade-ups scenarios for Watkins. It seemed doable based 2013 trade-up costs.

    - It cost the 49ers a #31 and #74 for the Cowboys #18
    - It cost Miami a #12 and #42 for Oakland’s #3

    But then I looked at 2011.

    It cost Atlanta a #27, #59 #124, 2012 first and 2012 fourth for Cleveland’s #6 (Jones). Wow. If Watkins reputation continues to rise, no way I want to 49ers to spend this kind of draft capital.

    1. It cost Atlanta so much because they were desperate, and it showed. I think Baalke constantly works the phones and tries to move around the board all the time. Part of it is because he is get value, part of it because he always wants to be active and see if he can do better. People complain about the late round draft picks he made in the last couple of years. He mentioned that he tried to trade them, but people stopped calling/answering his phone. If he can move up and get Watkins without giving up a ton, I think he will. I also think if Watkins if off the board, or teams want a ransom, he’s fine with plan B….or C

      1. Yup… I remember that Baalke interview. He made several day one/two trades. Then got ripped for not trading up on day three. Did did in fact say the phone simply were not ringing.

        I’ve been charting Baalke’s trades. Whether he trades up/down/forward he wins the (traditional Jimmy Johnson) value chart.

        31, 74 (820) for the Cowboys 18 (900) [Eric Ried]
        34 (560) for the Titans 40 [Tank Carradine], 216, (2014) 77 (700)
        61, 173 (314) for the Packers 55 (350) [Vance McDonald]
        93, 216 (133) for the Packers 88 (145) [Corey Lemonier]

        Total net gain: 268 value points. A 66th overall pick draft pick.

        Then he did what smart GMs with packed rosters and too many compensatory picks do… he gambled late picks on NFI/IR players that don’t count against the roster like Lattimore and Dial.

        1. bodie2washington; I feel that TB sometimes loses his perspective and allows himself to get goal displaced in his deals. He is much like Gen McClellen during the civil war who got too focused on his army and not the purpose to the army. The purpose to him becomes about the deals and not the needs of the team. This was evident in his keeping the two LB which he ended up trading within the week for tow measly seventh rounders and releasing both Gray and Cooper for the roster spots needed to do so. I personally see a flaw in is makeup and personality that has just began to manifest itself these past two seasons. He focus’s more on his role than the goal.

          1. Interesting observation. It was frustrating to see Cooper become a roster space casualty, only to see other players dealt for peanuts shortly thereafter.

          2. Bodie2Washington– Gray was also a major loss for the Niner’s. He was their developmental H Back who is so important in the system they run. When he was picked up on waivers they attempted to replace him with Harper who they got off the practice squad from Seattle. He eventually didn’t work out and was cut as well. Every team sometimes lets players get away, but this seasons musical chairs signings and releases all though the year gave evidence that the players they let get away were far less valuable than the ones they put on waivers. Common sense tells me that Baalke miscalculated and over valued the LB’s and undervalued both Cooper and Gray. They actually wanted them both but thought they could sneek them through to the practice squad. This entire pre and regular season was a comedy of errors with a domino effect. In trying to correct previous errors in judgement they just made the situation worse with each subsequent decision. I could list the cause and effect pattern but it would take too long.

    2. Need to stop dreaming of Watkins. He’ll be gone long before the 49ers can get a chance at him, trade up or no. Sure, I’d love to get him – Watkins is a fantastic athlete with good size and great speed, acceleration, agility and leaping ability. As far as that combo of athletic traits go I don’t believe there is any better in this draft. But his route running at this point is still a work in progress, largely as a result of playing in a system that padded his stats with a ridiculous number of screen passes. However, he shows good hip-dip when asked to run patterns, and with his athletic ability he shouldn’t have any trouble improving this aspect of his game.

      Despite that though, he isn’t worth the same blockbuster trade that Julio Jones was, for a couple of reasons:

      1) As good as Watkins is, he isn’t quite as good a prospect as Green and Jones were that year – if he were in the same draft he’d have been the 3rd WR taken.
      2) The next tier of WRs aren’t that far behind him in terms of skills, which wasn’t the case the year Green and Jones were drafted.

        1. No way. He’s a guy that gives me pause. There are plenty of things about him that make me think he’ll be a decent pro player. He’s got great acceleration and can be dynamite with the ball in his hands. But I also think there are plenty of reasons he won’t be more than just a decent WR. Too many drops for starters, he also struggles with press and he is too reliant on making his big plays off short passes for a guy with only average size – he goes down pretty easily on contact. In the NFL he won’t be making as many people miss.

          If the 49ers take him at #30 I’m good with that, but he isn’t a guy I’d target and trade up for. For mine he’s more of a #2 WR – he’s a guy NFL defenses will be able to take out of a game if he’s the main focus.

          1. Yeah… I still think they do if they believe the WRs on the board are better than the CBs or Safeties. And I think the chances of that being the case are pretty high.

            I think they are committed to putting top-line weapons around Kaep this off-season, including adding some speed to help stretch defenses. I also think they will look at what happened last year when they lost Crabtree and make sure they aren’t in the same hole they found themselves in again in 2014.

          2. Jack i agree 1000% also if they can get Brown and Rogers back on the cheap i do’nt see them drafting a CB in the 1st rd either.

          3. I don’t think signing Boldin will have any bearing on what they do in the first round. Crabtree is in his final year and they will be looking for WR’s this year to compensate if they lose him after the season.

            My guess is they will look at CB and S first as they figure to be bigger needs if they do the expected and let Brown and Whitner walk and cut Rogers. However they won’t reach for the position if there is a higher ranked WR or Dlineman on the board imo.

  9. Grant, I agree with your top 5. I’d throw in…

    6. Open field blocking on reverses (though the coaching staff told him to ease off)
    7. Chasing down defenders after a turn over (never a skill you would want to list #1)

    Maybe not a “strength”, but an improved weakness is his release. Still a loopy by NFL standards, but a huge improvement over his college throwing motion.

    If (a big “if) his pre-snap reads, vision and pocket footwork improve to the extent his throwing motion has, Colin will be a monster.

  10. In general, I think it’s a bad idea to back load contracts. It leads to big cap problems. I think the Niners philosophically don’t like doing it either. While the salaries may rise, they prefer to have the back end paid by roster, game day, and workout bonuses. That way, if the player is hurt, there is no salary issue. I find it interesting that they put salary de-escalators in on contracts, I hadn’t seen that before.

    1. Exactly that was what got them in salary cap problems under Policy. He wanted to keep the Niner’s precap depth by signing players with back loaded contracts. They ended up with a lot of dead money cause the were still playing players long retired.

    2. The 49ers might not like back loaded contracts but they still do them. See Carlos Rogers, Ahmad Brooks, Navorro Bowman, etc.

      1. Jack i believe the difference in how they used to backload contracts and how they do it now is, they used to backload the bonus which was guaranteed and now the backload salaries which are’nt guaranteed.

  11. Good list Grant. I would probably only add one thing on your list. On #3, I would say that the velocity with which CK throws the football allows him to drive the ball downfield between defenders even on throws that travel more than 30 yards. CK has an extremely strong arm that may actually be the strongest arm in the NFL.

    1. That also makes it difficult to intercept his passes unless they are right in the defenders gut. A lot of those almost interceptions were never really in danger of being picked off. A lot of times announcers will say that if a defender just get a hand on the ball. Of course they only do that when the ball is thrown by certain QB’s.

  12. Agreed, but I would add that by and large, he does make pretty good decisions. Let’s look at this objectively and without all the emotions Niner fans put into their commentary about his play. In his first full year at QB he only threw 8 interceptions. Excellent. In the post season, against the Pack and Panthers, he won and only threw 1 INT. Now, I recognize that there were “near misses”, but that happens in every game with every QB. Plus, when you throw as hard as Kaep there are very few backs that can handle his pass. He will always get away with more risks in that regard. I am actually more concerned with his fumbles than INT’s (he absolutely does not protect the ball).

    I think where decision-making fails us most is at the coaching level. I have never seen a coach not call a TO in game critical situations like we have seen the last two years. Not only during the SB and NFC Championship games, but in countless other games when we are driving towards the end and fail to put our young QB in the best possible position to succeed. Go back and look at how many TO’s Walsh took with Montana. This, to me, is what really needs to be reported and understood. It’s killing us.

    1. Good points and I agree with the perception being off. Disappointment over the final play in both seasons has clouded judgment of his overall play which has been very good.

    2. Daniners: His ball security has improved. The strip fumble in against the Hawks was on the offensive line not him. The player who he could not see came from behind him from the other side from which he was rolling out too. He was in the act of passing not running with the ball. Kaep and also Alex took a lot of the flack that should have been directed at the coaching staff. The problem in clock management was mostly the fault to the coaches but everyone put it on Kaep because he was the rookie. Now it has become evident that the problem was the late delivery of the plays. How many other issues that we blame Kaep for are actually also caused by the staffs incompetence? It took them a year and a half to make the proper adjustments to playing in Seattle. I don’t necessarily think Harbaugh is a problem, rather the staff that he has around him. He is relatively inexperienced when it comes to the NFL and what might work in college might bite you in the butt in the Pro’s. He might just have been very lucky in his first season because the issues that the team has had to deal with the next two hadn’t reared their heads yet. He still has a learning curve to go through himself.

  13. Nos. 3 and 4 are very interesting stats. Especially No. 4 – which would seem to support the widely held contention that he doesn’t read multiple levels well. Let’s hope it’s true Harbaugh is taking more of a hand in the passing game this season, because it clearly isn’t working.

  14. Note to Coach Harbaw:
    fans (see above) are already asking the question…
    What if your contract is not renewed?
    Where will you go when you leave the Niners?
    That’s your business. Our concern is the future
    of Kaepernick and the team’s postseason play.

    Don’t let the door hit you in the butt, fella….

  15. If you consider that Kap has to play in the NFC West and see 2 of the NFLs top 5 defenses twice a year (AZ/SEA) and has had to play a NFC Champ/SB schedule his first year and a half, your stats are very, very promising.

  16. They said Kaep did not study film photos during the game like other elite QBs did. It’s true, I see Tom Brady, Brees, Peyton, and even Romo would study opposing defenses on the sidelines…trying to dissect plays. I really did not recall Kaep doing much of those during the game; instead, he was just watching on the sidelines. Just makes me wonder why didn’t he study during game time to make adjustments to opposing defenses…

    1. It might be because of the type of system that Roman runs on offense. They give him a number of choices each play and he chooses one at the line of scrimmage. I am sure what he does on the sidelines is what the coaches dictate he does. He wouldn’t say no I am not going to study on the sidelines.

  17. CK=elite

    From your moniker, you have given yourself up as a Kap fanatic. No, he will not be the niners QB for the next 8-10 years…if he is he will be playing in Levis stadium to empty seats and fans with bags over their heads. He is NOT a star. He was drafted by a playoff ready team, and getting TO the NFC championship and the SB is one thing, winning them is another. You seem to have forgotten our history…when we gave out contracts to people who didn’t earn them…Does the term ‘Cap Hell’ ring a familiar note? As Walsh would do, let them go a year too early than a year too late. Kap is under contract for another year…after which he can be ‘franchised’ for another year. By that time, he’ll be close to 30 years old, and we’ll know if he’s the “real thing”. In that time there will be some 200 QB’s pumped out by Div-1 schools alone. Let Baalke find ‘em. If I am proven wrong; that’s happened before. But I won’t live long enough to survive the niners second trip through Cap Hell.

    1. Oregon ..

      How long did it take Peyton Manning to become a “star” ?

      Sometimes .. people, (like QBs) are “late-bloomers” ..
      While Kaep won’t be considered a “Peyton-2.0″ ..
      I think you can still call him a star

      1. We can MWN, but we shouldn’t overpay for a still raw QB. Give him the weapons needed this upcoming season and let him show that he is worth a huge contract.

          1. @MWNiner,

            I like him, but my only concern is that he doesn’t seem to have much “fight” at the line of scrimmage. I’m worried he won’t be able to get off the line against aggressive DBs.

      2. Peyton became a ‘star’ when he won the Super Bowl. He had won a couple of bowls in college, but he’s not a ‘star’ in the NFL until he wins the ONLY bowl in the NFL…(imho)

    2. Oregon,

      I understand your reservations on Kap, but you are seriously stretching the truth here. He will be 27 at the end of next season, not close to 30, and Walsh wouldn’t let go of a QB this talented who was just entering his prime. The edict you refer to was for guys over 30 whose play had slipped; not young players just starting to hit their best years. Unless you believe he’s going to go backward, there is no reason not to try and extend him now. Using the franchise tag on him would be a disaster as it would force them to cut some players to get under the cap and make it extremely difficult to sign other important players to extensions. To me that isn’t an option.

      We all want the 9ers to win another SB but I think some of the venom being directed at Kap for the failures is misguided.

      1. Rocket
        My reference to ‘close to 30′ is after next year, and the following franchise year which makes him 28 which is ‘close to 30′ .I do not see him going backwards necessarily, but I also do not see him advancing. To be clear, I think that Kap is a phenomenal athlete who is not a phenomenal QB.

          1. He’s the best quarterback the 49ers have had since Young. You’d have to go back 10 years before you’d find a quarterback I’d rather have than Kap….

          2. I knew what he was at Nevada. He’s come along way in a very short period of time. I knew he had the talent to play on Sundays, but I did not expect him ready until 2013. He’s learning on the job, and doing it well imo…..

          3. There aren’t to many QB’ who have remained ‘phenomenal’ throughout their careers.
            It took Payton a while to get there. A.Luck certainly has the potential to get there as well. Wilson won a SB and given many reason to believe he’s already there.
            Keeping the consistency at a high level of play makes one phenomenal.

            Brady has remained consistent for the better part of his career but that hasn’t guaranteed a SB in each of those years. Same could be said of Payton who has one less SB win than his brother.

            Kaep will be fine, but we should always keep in mind that there are so many other factors involved (not just QB) in winning a Superbowl.

          4. Razor,
            I’m just not seeing the greatness in Kaep right now. He’s got tremendous upside and has the athletic ability to be one of the greatest of all time. But in many ways he’s just not producing in the areas that you NEED a franchise QB to produce. If he comes out next year and proves that, great, but right now OREGONINER is spot on.

        1. I think it is unrealistic to expect him to be phenomenal at this point Oregon. He’s learning how to play like a pro QB on the fly, meanwhile all he’s done is take his team to a SB and NFCCG while doing it. Kap is having this success while learning to play the position the NFL way. He’s given no indication that he has maxed out his potential, far from it in fact. He’s winning with physical talent alone right now; when the mental side gets close to the physical side, he could become elite.

    3. Oregoniner, I have been to Oregon before and it’s a beautiful place.. But every time I leave that place It’s seems that they seem behind in times compared to other states. Quite obviously you are behind on the times from a football prospective.. You seem to like to round up kaeps age to
      approaching 30! From reading your post you are also caught up in the 1980s where football was completely different… As far as being a kaep fanatic you are correct! I was also an Alex Smith fanatic as well.. Whoever is the QB of the niners I will support to the fullest…. I came up with the name before last season started and he has not failed that name.. He continues to grow as a QB and he will only get better.. The reality of the situation is that the only person who showed up in seatle was kaep.. Hating or like him he is a franchise QB will get paid big very soon!!!!

      1. You seem to like to round up kaeps age to
        approaching 30!

        Technically, being the age of 27 is classified as approaching 30.

          1. When the guy still has three more seasons to play before he hits 30, no, he isn’t close to 30.

            The whole age things is being blown way out of proportion. If he signs a 6-7 year contract he’ll be about 32-33 at the end of it. For a QB that is still well within your best years.

          2. “But Kaepernick is more of a runner/thrower than a QB”.

            Came in pretty handy against the Seahawks…How’d that greatest of all time pocket passer do?

          3. Grant, even a runner/ thrower like Kaep can still be running at a high level at 32-33. They don’t take the punishment a RB takes. Sure, he might be a little slower than at 27, but plenty fast enough to remain effective scrambling when running lanes open up. And he should still have the same velocity on his throws.

            The key will be whether in those years he can improve the cerebral aspects of his game.

          4. @Scooter

            With a wonderlic of 37, the kid’s got all the cerebral potential to be successful. The onus is on the coaching staff to reach it….

      2. CK=elite

        You may be right…as Oregonians we may be a bit behind the times…that probably accounts for all of the Californians moving here. From a football perspective, yes, I am caught up in the 1980′s when football was completely different; the fortyniners WON the Superbowls then. As far as his growth, I personally have not witnessed it. I do NOT hate Kap; it’s just that if he is going to be our (9ers) standard bearer, I expect more.

    4. Oregonin- The Walsh policy about releasing a player a year early applied to the downslide of a player. It was in relation to veterans declining skills as age caught up with them. That is totally opposite in concept to a developing player who has still not reached his upside. The 49er’s cap hell began when they back loaded contracts in order to keep players in preparation the initial implementation of the Cap. They ended up with too much dead money. They ended up having to still pay players long retired. That was Carmons policy -LOL. They morgaged their future to maintain an unsustainable present. Much like the economists have done with our National economy.

      1. @Willtalk

        You’re late to the party…but correctly ID’d Carmen of Policy for having plunged us (9ers) into Cap Hell. Yes, dead money for dead wood which forced the Yorks to compel Terry Donohue to get rid of ALL of our valued players….BY was the last and only survivor. But although it did pertain to
        dead wood players, who’s to say that it didn’t also pertain to young unproven players like those that we’ve been discussing for most of the day ? Correctly stated, at one time, it was estimated that the 49ers were paying half as much to players OFF the roster as those ON the roster. My point was that if we don’t handle the salary cap differently and better, we will suffer the penalty of not learning from history….you all know what that is….

      2. Good points Willtalk.
        The economy of today’s NFL is much different than it was 20-30 yrs ago. And it will continue to change in years to come.

  18. Grant, do you think the 49ers would have used a similar defensive tactic to Seattle’s against Denver in the SuperBowl?

      1. Sad but true! They would’ve called at least 2 “unnecessary roughness and/or-hit-on -a-defenseless-receiver” calls on Whitner.

    1. Ya kno .. MidWest ..
      Vernon is a great player .. and I’m hoping he retires
      as a Niner … but ..
      I think he’s just plain wrong, here

        1. MidWest ..

          I think you mentioned your locale in a previous thread ..
          I’m about 3 – 1/2 hours (drive-time) .. north of you ..
          on “The Blues Highway” ..

        1. MWNiner:

          Harbaugh spoke to Martin’s “tenacity, work ethic and dedication to the game.” Those weren’t listed among the negatives in the ProFootballWeekly scouting report.

        1. MidWestDy- I really don’t know all the perticulars around his case but I am a bit leery of professional victims. They can be more trouble than they are ever worth.

        1. I’m a firm believer you need guys up front with a nasty disposition, and quite frankly, I don’t believe that is part of Mr. Martins’ game….

  19. For the pro-extending Kaep crowd, do you believe Harbaugh would be able to teach up a top line rookie QB in 2015 to play as effectively as Smith did in 2011? Mariota, Winston, Hundley, Petty, Hogan – all those guys might be available next year.

    If it was me I’d either extend Kaep on a short term, medium $$ deal or let Kaep prove he’s deserving of a big pay day next year. If he’s not, the 2015 draft will likely have some talented guys to choose from.

    1. None of those quarterbacks have the ceiling of Kaepernick. Kaepernick gives you a chance against that Seahawk defense. If it was me, I’d learn a lesson from the Ravens. They could have saved millions had they signed him beforehand. Millions that could be applied to other positions….

        1. Yea, I wasn’t in the negotiating room, so I have no idea what the middle ground would have been or which party was being unreasonable….

      1. None of those QBs have the athletic gifts of Kaep, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have a higher ceiling as pocket passers…

        Andrew Luck doesn’t have the athletic ‘ceiling’ Kaep has, but I’d take Luck over Kaep any day of the week and twice on Sundays because he’s a superior pocket passer.

        1. I disagree with you scooter as well.. I also believe that if Jim had his choice he would take kaep as well! Luck is limited as passer.. The guy seems to throw 2-3 picks every game.. Got completely out played by Alex in that playoff game.. Kaep has no limitations.. Just listen to Earl Thomas talk about how good kaepernick is.. kaep is the only guy that seatle is concerned about.. footwork in the pocket can be taught.. Patience in the pocket can be taught.. But his arm talent cannot!!!

          1. “Kaep has no limitations” – yikes, really?

            I’m clearly giving the wrong impression here, I’m actually a Kaep fan. I believe he will continue to grow as a QB and has the potential to be one of the greats. But saying things like he has no limitations is, I hate to say, ridiculous.

            At this point in time his ability to read coverages, make progressions, and pass from the pocket with consistent accuracy are limitations. He is below average in these regards at the moment. These are areas of his game that can potentially be fixed, but it is no guarantee they will be. And because there is no guarantee of that I would not commit to him long term just yet.

            The ramifications of getting it wrong are much worse if they commit to him and he doesn’t progress, than if they wait and he shows he deserves big $$.

          2. Scooter, I was referring to physical limitations! Plus you keep bringing up going through his progressions which is correct but that takes a long time to be efficient at that.. How long did it take Alex to be able to go through his progressions? What I remembered until Jim got there, he relied on dumping it to the half back or throwing the ball out of bounds.. My point is that you guys, maybe not you scooter are talking as kaep is a finished product and that he won’t continue to grow… I point to his rapid success in 2 years to gauge the next couple years of his career.

          3. Which of the big money QBs were paid like superstars after 1.5 seasons starting? I’ve not done any research but I’d be very surprised if any were. This coming season is the year he should be showing the most progress – he’s now got a full seasons starting under his belt, and ridden the highs and lows. He should know what areas he needs to work on. Lets wait and see if he does make those improvements.

            Giving Kaep a long term, big money contract at this point in time is very high risk. In all honesty, for those saying they can save some $$ if they sign him now rather than next year, how much do you think he’s going to be asking for? The market is set with teams giving average QBs $18 – $20 million a season. Do you honestly think he’ll take less than that on a long term deal?

          4. He said as much….The Whisperer is his best chance to reach his full potential. The tables set. Push in the chips, and let’s go take that Championship from the Seahawks.

          5. “Once Kaep understands the position”

            Still an “if”, razor…

            If he is willing to take below market average for a ‘franchise’ QB on a long term deal then they should consider it. That is another big “if”. He didn’t say he was willing to do that, he said he understood he needed to be reasonable but that he also wanted to be paid commensurate to his peers.

          6. @Scooter


            I’m confident in the coaching staff to make sure he learns what he needs to be successful. Think positive Scooter. He’s smart and he has the Whisperer. They can get it done.


            As anyone who has negotiated knows, both parties need to be reasonable for a deal to get done. He said as much, so I believe that’s a good starting point….

          7. luck hit the winning td pass to beat chiefs ..colin “no limitations” kaeprnick turned the ball over 3 times in the 4th quarter in nines most important game of the year….would have been turnovers on 4 straight drives but he kicked one of his fumbles forward and goodwin was able to fall on it

    2. Scooter,

      I don’t think they would remain a SB contender with a rookie QB, nevermind the fact I don’t see great prospects in that list (Winston has said he will stay at FSU for two more years and Mariota to me is a huge question mark because of the offense he plays in. The other 3 don’t excite me very much but we’ll see what happens next year). Smith was a 6 year vet by the time Harbaugh arrived on the scene.

      The problem with your Kap plan is unless he regress’, he’s going to command even more next season. He’s already proven worthy of a big pay day. I get the notion that some would like to see him do it longer before committing the big money to him, but that isn’t an option here unless you want to pay him even more next year or destroy your cap with a Franchise tag.

      1. It wouldn’t be ideal to have a rookie QB, but I think Harbaugh and this offense is capable of winning games with a rookie at the helm. Would they win the SB? Maybe not, and you’d imagine less likely than with Kaep. But that is just one season – wouldn’t be a rookie forever.

        You keep saying he will destroy their cap if they don’t resign him now. How much do you think he will be willing to take right now, and how much do you think they would have to pay next year?

        I’ve made my case for either a short term extension (3-years) worth around $15M/year, or for a long term deal with a lower base but escalators that could take him to franchise-type $$. What would you do?

        1. I’ve heard anywhere from 16 to 18 mill Scooter and that all applies to the cap, whereas a long term deal can feature lower base salaries the first couple of years and the SB spread over the life of it. My guess is they would be looking at a difference of 8-9 mill in cap charge minimum.

          1. CBS sports is projecting the franchise tag number for QB’s to be $16,086,000 in 2014.

            By taking a lower base salary on what is likely to be a large deal to minimize the cap impact early on, you are simply pushing back the strangulation of the salary cap with his salary, see Joe Flacco.

          2. The cap is expected to go up quite a bit once the next TV contracts kick in, that is why you push the money back. They will not take anywhere near a 16 mill cap hit on a long term deal in the first 3 years at least.

        2. The problem with the short term extension is it also strangles the cap more than you’d like and you will be faced with another mega deal sooner than you’d like if he lives up to expectations. Escalators are fine, but I doubt any agent will accept anything that isn’t easily achieved.

          I think they most likely look at a 5 year deal tacked on to the end of his rookie deal. It makes the most sense for the cap and locks up their QB for the next 6 years through his prime.

    1. In case the 49ers skip a day 1 WR, I’m developing my day 2 draft crush.

      I’m liking Donte Moncrief. 6’3″, 227, plays against SEC competition. And he’s only 20. Just a pup. Fights for the ball. Combative. A nice understudy for Boldin. Should still be there in the third round. Anyone have the scoop on him?

        1. Thanks. I saved that one the other day. Only dial-up in the hills west of Healdsburg, but I can save player footage on my laptop when I’m in town.

          Donte isn’t perfect, but for a 20 year old he looks pretty good. If the 49ers keep (W)hitner they’ll have a rare Double-Donte situation.

          1. Trees in the way. 2 year contract. Heavy repair charges. Since the DTV switch I don’t even have TV. 12 mile round trip just to watch 49er games. Since DiVine pizza closed been looking for a new 49er game spot.

      1. Moncrief would be a good 3rd round pick, and a decent late 2nd round pick. The current hype building around him I think is more a case of the top 8-10 WRs have been analysed a lot and the network ‘experts’ are now turning their attention to some of the other guys. Moncrief stands out from the rest of the ‘other guys’.

        He has a lot of positive attributes – size/ speed combo being one of them. But he doesn’t always play to his size – sometimes it seems like he is trying to be more of a finesse receiver. He won’t out-finesse or out-sprint many DBs in the NFL, so he’ll need to work on being more physical more consistently. And I don’t know that the hitch-step that he used a lot to get separation will work as well at the next level.

        Definitely an intriguing prospect that has the legitimate potential to be a #1 WR, but will probably need a little time to develop.

  20. Grant

    Not to be nit-picking, but if you mix #’s 3 and 4, we need to have receivers that can get out 30+ yards in 2.5 seconds to where Kaep is most effective. At +30 yards, the first time you burn someone, they back off their safeties and kill your WR’s.

  21. my hope is that whereas last year Kaep was said to have worked on his body in the offseason, that this year he will spend most of his time working on the mental part of playing qb, and the footwork that Walsh used to teach.

    this young man has a boatload of talent. and I think he’s a smart guy who’s dedicated to climbing the Mt Rushmore of Qbs. I’m thinking that he knows where he has to improve, and he’s going to work like a fiend to get there. my hunch is that he will never have the kind of touch that Joe had on short/medium passes, but he has so much other talent that I think he’s still capable of taking us to – and winning – at least 2 SBs, supporting cast assumed of course. while I love Harbaugh et al for turning around this team, i do wish they’d mold the offense more to Kaep’s ability to throw downfield. and Baalke of course will have to provide the kind of speedy but strong receivers to make that happen. Go Niners!

    1. fesnyc- Every QB has their strengths and weakness’s. The short and Medium game was Joe’s strength and they ran the plays that played to those strengths. Joe arm wasn’t that strong so they really didn’t throw long alot. They need to do the same with Kaep and play to his strength. Kaep reminds me a lot of Garcia. He could throw on the run and actually had actually had accuracy throwing passes with both feet off the ground. Let him play his game and don’t try to turn him into a standard QB. The problem is the staff who cant seem to adjust to their talent and wants to do things their way. Roman Roman. I don’t seem to have the faith in T Baalke that a lot of you do. He has only been good at stocking draft picks for the future but hasn’t really done much with the resources he has to work with. I see the problem with the team being less with the players than with the front office and coaching staffs. Harbaugh is basically an NFL rookie himself. As is T Baalke as a GM. I do see harbaugh as still having an upside to learn. Baalke ??????

      1. I agree very much with your comments except that I think Baalke’s influence over the offense ends after he gets the players. I bet he is as frustrated as you are — and as I am — that Roman can’t do more with them. In my opinion, if Roman were anywhere near as good a coach as Fangio is, we would have won the last two Super Bowls.

    1. Dang. This kind of praise will make him expensive. We can only hope he gets gum stuck on his shoes and runs a crummy 40 at the combine.

      Under “weakness” it says “question about his straight-line speed. Moncrief was not caught from behind…” That’s was BW’s main criteria for receivers. As long as they don’t get caught from behind, they are fast enough.

  22. MidWest ..

    seems every one of these I read .. they always
    have Watkins at the top of the list …
    yeah .. I’ve seen his youtube .. impressive .. but
    I’m not sure he’ll still be there at #30 …

    Besides … I’ve found a bit of encouragement in this article …

    (Jordan Mathews wasn’t mentioned )

    1. Besides … I’ve found a bit of encouragement in this article …

      (Jordan Mathews wasn’t mentioned )

      Hopefully he remains under the radar after the Combine and his pro day. That way we can nab him in the second round.

    1. He looked undisciplined and inconsistent at Tampa. He wished he’d been half that good at Minn. he was thrown in too soon, but he looked appallingly bad. When they signed Namdi I thought maybe they saw something I didn’t; but not so much. This seems similar.
      Heck, Ponder might be a better #2.

  23. Interesting fact of the day: Kansas University will be the only school from a major BCS conference that won’t have a player at the Combine.

  24. An interesting spread of data.

    More interesting stats is to look at:

    1. How many times did CK call an adjustment at the line of scrimmage? How many of those were an improvement on the other play concept vs the defense that transpired. Would tell you something of his pre snap reads.

    2. How man times did he pick the most optimal throw? Would tell you about his reading of the situation, seeing downfield etc

    3. How many errors did he make? Poor throws etc Would tell you about his consistency.
    The difficult bit is harvesting that info.

  25. Colin:
    Keep your eyes open; do your research.
    Start laying the groundwork for exercising
    the option to leave the 49ers ASAP
    (and when it makes the most sense financially).
    Somewhere in your gut you realize:
    Coach Harbaw will never ever take this team
    to the Super Bowl again. Admit it, Colin.
    So since you are determined to earn a piece of
    your own Lombardi trophy (sooner, not later)…
    evaluate the teams and the head coaches
    (just the way they are sizing the players up).
    Plan your moves, Colin. But do not call me a liar.
    Just think about how little time/juice/attention he had
    to show/share with you the minute you hit the sideline
    (after Sherman’s pick)….A one-arm hug around the waist….
    Come on.!!!

  26. Grant you I’m surprised, you forgot to include CK’s #1 strength and its the most important asset any QB can have. He wins. Now sometimes he wins ugly but none the less he wins. Are there any other QB’s since the merger who’s team has won the NFC championship and then made the NFC championship game in their 2nd and 3rd seasons?

  27. Good Stuff Grant,

    I think #3 is quite impressive wehn considering he has only had one true deep threat which is his TE. And #3 is the very reason we need to get some speed on the outside. If we do that this offense opens up so much more, a lot less 8 man fronts, which not only opens up for Gore and Co. but Kap as well. We become a lot more dynamic. We need speed, but also talent and hands to go with it. It will be interesting to see what the FO does.

  28. I asked Matt Maiocco the following question this morning:

    Matt, how would you respond to the voices who say Kaepernick does not deserve that kind of money because he is not a franchise quarterback. Progressions, footwork, maturity are the issues used to support their argument. What say you?

    Maiocco: He has shown quite a bit in 29 NFL starts, including a 4-2 record in the postseason with three road victories. And he can be expected to get better, too. His next contract will place him close to that top group of QBs. –Matt M.

    1. Razor, here is the amount MM just stated on his live-chat:

      Matt Maiocco CSN:
      Right now, I’d think $16M average sounds reasonable.

          1. Space,

            That depends on the signing bonus, and if it is an extension set to kick in for 2015.

            I just think that as a team if you’re going to pay one guy over 10% of your cap you shouldn’t feel compelled to put guys around him to make him better. He should be making everyone else better, see Brady, Manning, Rodgers, etc.

        1. Jack, how would you feel about an extension that includes a bunch of escalators in it? Say something that pays him around $12M/year as a base, but with potential to increase to around $18 – $20M/year based on performance.

          1. 16 mil a year is not even market value for him!!! If he accepts 16 a year over 5-6 years they have to do it! Big mistake if they don’t…

    1. I prefer his evaluations to Kiper/McShay etc. Draft god? If that were the case, he’d be in the front office of a NFL Franchise…..

      1. Just gotta chuckle at how some writers use him as the “word” regarding the draft.

        Many on here have been talking about how Verrett and the kid from FSU are top slot corner prospects and now that Mayock said it guys are writing stories on it.

    2. Around the time half the people on this blog became NFL scouts after they watched a youtube video of the player they think we should draft.

          1. Jack, thanks for the link. I didn’t have that site, but it is now on my very long list of favorites, the one that drives my wife crazy, lol.

  29. What to pay Kaepernick is a great question. He is the QB of, if not the most talented team in the NFL ,one of the top two or three teams in the NFL.There are those who want to pay him an Elite salary. They say he has been to the SB and Championship games in his first two years in the league, Wow!
    What would be the out come of those games if other Elite QBs ran the offense in those games , would the out come be any different? What about Rogers or Brady? I say they win those games. How about Rivers, Brees, Rothleisberger and Eli? I say they also win those games. Now it gets dicey, What about Cutler, Bradford, Romo, Schaub, Ryan, would those guys win those games? I say it is not a lock with any of those guys.
    What sets the top guys apart is they are winners, SB winners. The others are not.
    All of those teams are dealing with the cap issues of paying big bucks to their QB’s . I say win the big game first before entering cap hell ,then at least the team would have a SB trophy while slowly watching their talented players leave because the team can no longer afford them.

    1. Hacksaw ..
      I attribute the “smack-talk” (about Kaep) to the impatience ..
      of those who see the glass .. half-empty …

      They will say …
      ” .. Sure .. he’s been to three NFC Title Games ..
      and one Super Bowl .. but hasn’t won any …”

      Marino .. is considered one of the best many rings
      does he have ?

      Elway … (afaik) … didn’t win a SB .. ’till after
      Montana retired ..

      and … when you look at what’s considered
      the best in the league …

      1. Brady … (Kaep beat him on his own turf .. in a shoot-out)
      2. Rogers …
      (Alex finally beat him once .. Kaep has beaten him three times)

      Bottom line …
      Kaep is ok !

      (now …
      can someone help me down off my soap-box please ?)

  30. Jack and Razor:
    You two seem the most knowledgeable about the draft. Do you know if anyone has gone back over the last 10 years or so and compared the” Draft Guru’s” rankings to how players have actually performed in the NFL to see how accurate their rankings really are? I wonder how accurate they are as compared to being correct based on the law of averages.

    I saw in Dr. Z’s book awhile ago a breakdown of players based on draft position and while there were lots of misses in the first two rounds most of the best players were drafted by teams in those rounds. Best was measured by HOF selection as well as Pro-bowl selections. I wonder how the teams choices compare to the “Guru’s”?

    1. Not Jack or Razor, but I remembered reading an article a few years ago that graded several draft gurus where Mel KiperJr. graded the best. I couldn’t find that particular article for you, but found this one for Kiper. Seems he was a bit less than 50% accurate with the first 16 picks, but fell to 10% accuracy n the remaining 16 picks. My guess is that is pretty much how it works with the rest of the gurus.

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