A lot has happened since 49ers GM Scot McCloughan said during training camp that quarterback Alex Smith would not be back with the team in 2009 if he did not head into the offseason as the proven starter.
–After Smith was ruled out for the season with his shoulder injury, he decided he wanted to stick around the team to rehab. He also wanted to sit in on meetings to gain a better understanding of the offense. This showed he at least had an open mind about returning to the 49ers, though his time here has not exactly been a grand experience.
–Coach Mike Nolan, who had clearly come to the conclusion Smith was a big part of the team’s problem, was fired on Oct. 20.
Now, with just two games remaining in the season, there are still many unanswered questions about the path the organization will take in ’09. Smith realizes his future likely rests in the hands of those who will be tabbed to fill the positions of head coach and offensive coordinator next season.
Here are some of those variables that will determine whether Smith is back for a fifth try:
Head coach: Will the new head coach want to move in a different direction, knowing Smith was the former head coach’s draft pick?
Offensive coordinator: We already know Mike Martz thinks J.T. O’Sullivan has a better upside than Smith. Shaun Hill is making people in the organization re-evaluate his role for the future. Right now, the team could do a lot worse than bringing him back as the starter. But the 49ers are also likely to bring in a young quarterback to develop. So if Martz is back, is there really room for Smith on the roster?
Smith has already learned four offenses in four NFL seasons. If Martz is not back, he’ll be forced to learn a new one. Smith is extremely intelligent. But in his meticulous attention to detail, it takes a while for him to get comfortable. Another offensive coordinator means another long learning period. (Unless, of course, the new offensive coordinator is also one of his former offensive coordinators.)
Smith: He said he’d accept a cut in pay. But when it comes time to hammer out the details would he (and his agent) take a deal for backup money with incentives?
Emotionally, it might be easier to go to a team where he has less pressure to perform. After all, the 49ers have already invested some $30 million in Smith, and 49ers fans are not going to forget that.
But if he has the chance to return with GM Scot McCloughan calling the shots, why wouldn’t he take it? After all, if Smith goes to another team, he’ll be fighting for a spot on a roster. He could be bound for a nomadic career like another No. 1 pick, David Carr.
But if he remains with the 49ers, you’d figure he would be either the No. 2 or No. 3 quarterback.
McCloughan: He wanted to draft Smith with the No. 1 pick in 2005 — no doubt about. He says he still believes Smith will be a good NFL quarterback some day. But this is also a time when McCloughan might want to go in a different direction for the same reasons outlined above for the head coach.
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