49ers (hypothetical) post-Colin-Kaepernick mock draft

These are the draft choices I think the 49ers will make if they trade Colin Kaepernick to the Broncos for a mid-round pick.

Round 1, pick No. 7: Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis.

A mobile quarterback who has the size (245 lbs) and durability (38-straight starts) to run the zone-read in the NFL. Lynch has a hose, like Colin Kaepernick. But unlike Kaepernick, Lynch has natural accuracy. Meaning he can power throws into tiny downfield windows without his feet set, similar to Cam Newton. Last season, Lynch completed 48.2 percent of his downfield passes, and 66.8 percent of his passes overall.

Round 2, pick No. 37: Derrick Henry, RB, Alabama.

A 247-pounder who will split time Carlos Hyde, the 49ers’ injury-prone starter. Hyde and Henry will become the 49ers’ version of Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert – the Carolina Panthers’ powerful running-back duo.

Round 3, pick No. 68: Leonte Carroo, WR, Rutgers.

A deep threat who may have the best hands in the draft. Similar to Josh Huff, whom Chip Kelly drafted in the third round in 2014.

Round 3, pick No. 94 (FROM DENVER IN EXCHANGE FOR COLIN KAEPERNICK): Yannick Ngakoue, OLB, Maryland.

A weak-side edge-rusher who will complement Aaron Lynch on the strong side of the Niners defense. Ngakoue recorded 13 sacks as a junior last season.

Round 4, pick No. 105. James Bradberry, CB, Samford.

A big cornerback similar to Sean Smith, the 49ers’ top free-agent target this offseason.

Round 4, pick No. 133: Beniquez Brown, ILB, Mississippi State.

An athletic inside linebacker who weighed 236 pounds and ran 4.67 in the 40-yard dash at his Pro Day.

Round 5, pick No. 142: Hassan Ridgeway, DT, Texas.

A nose tackle who can stop the run and rush the quarterback.

Round 5, pick No. 145: Tyvis Powell, FS, Ohio State.

A free safety who has the speed to cover the deep middle of the field by himself.

Round 5, pick No. 174: Stephen Anderson, TE, Cal.

A move tight end who ran a 4.58 at his Pro Day.

Round 6, pick No. 178: Dadi Nicolas, OLB, Virginia Tech.

An explosive pass-rusher who can play outside linebacker or inside linebacker.

Round 6, pick No. 207: Marquez North, WR, Tennessee.

A 220-pound split end who ran a 4.42 40 at his Pro Day.

Round 6, pick No. 211: Rees Odhiambo, OG, Boise State.

A guard who moves well and fits the 49ers’ zone-blocking scheme.

Round 6, pick No. 213: Caleb Benenoch, OT, UCLA.

A tackle who runs a 4.98 and fits the 49ers’ zone-blocking scheme.

This article has 507 Comments

  1. I really like the Carroo and Ridgeway picks, but I think they go higher. Anderson is a good pick as well, I would be livid if the 49ers took Paxton though.

    1. I couldn’t agree with you more. Drafting Paxton would break my heart and set this team further back than it already is. Carroo and Ridgeway were my favorite picks in this draft. I also like Rees Odhiambo. Athletic guard built for a zone scheme

  2. This is seriously the worse mock of the entire off season. You could not have selected two worse players at 1 and 2.

    1. “draft choices I think the 49ers will make…” It doesn’t sound like these are not the players Grant wants. I think Grant likes Jack, Lawson or Lee if Jack wasn’t there in his mock.

  3. Grant what happened to Conklin. I am seriously obsessed with that pick! How about we trade back with Oakland. That makes the Conklin pick more justifiable at #14. Then we move up back into the first and grab Decker to play RG at #24 right before Seattle gets him.

    4.)Wentz (STL for both 2nd rounders)
    6.)Nkemdiche (what I think)/Buckner (more reasonable)
    7.)Jack (trade with Oakland)


  4. Lynch looks like Kaepernick, the best plays in that clip are from missed tackles. Frustration.

  5. Like tkamb I like the Carroo and Ridgeway picks. Don’t mind a couple of the others too. But Lynch in round 1 would be a huge mistake imo.

    1. Like your draft, esp. Lynch, Henry and Ridgeway. If we could pick up a decent DB I would consider it a good draft. Nice work Grant, as its the first I’ve seen Lynch. I would definitely spend # 7 on him, but I wonder if Dallas isn’t telling us everything about Romo and they might consider this talent.
      Also, offensive gurus like Walsh and Kelly believe they can find QB’s with mid round talent to develop and often use the earlier picks on something else.

          1. Thanks. You gave me the Henry idea. The Niners almost surely will draft him.

          2. Paxton Lynch is a guy I have gone back and forth on for the last 6 months. I’m not sure I like his value at #7, however, if he does end up reaching his potential and develops into a quality NFL starter, it doesn’t really matter where the 49ers draft him.

            I made the case for Derrick Henry at #37 last week. Carroo is probably a top 5 WR. I’ve mentioned both Nicolas and North in a couple of my past posts.

            The one pick I don’t like is TE Anderson. I like the TE Anderson that we have on our roster already, better than the kid from Cal.

          1. I think the Niners will be concerned with Wentz’s durability and lack of experience, and Goff’s durability and lanky build.

            1. That doesn’t explain why they will like Lynch, just why they may not like Wentz or Goff. Though I think in the case of Wentz his durability won’t be a big issue. Only one injury of note in his career, and he’s got the size to handle the punishment.

              Wouldn’t they also be concerned with Lynch’s durability given a number of injuries were identified at the combine?

              1. Small injuries that never affected Lynch. He never missed a game or a practice in three years. Wentz missed considerable time in his two seasons as a starter.

              2. Wentz missed time his final season on a one-off injury. I don’t see the 49ers liking Lynch more than Wentz. At least I hope they don’t. Not a fan of Lynch that high. He’s a mid round talent for mine.

              3. Wentz attempted only 612 passes in college. He’s a question mark. Bill Parcells would not draft him.

            2. Goff didn’t miss a start in 3 years. He’s also the same size as Matt Ryan so he’s not small either. Not sure why these durability questions keep getting proposed when the kid has never missed a game. It’s looking for red flags where there are none.

              Lynch at 7 is a huge reach imo. I also wouldn’t draft Henry in the second. He is a north/south runner who struggles when he has to move laterally. I like the Carroo and Nicolas picks the best in this scenario.

              1. Ryan doesn’t run the zone-read. Henry has plenty of experience running from the gun.

              2. Rocket,

                I completely agree with you on Henry in that he’s doesn’t have much wiggle. In fact, many (most?) of his runs at Alabama were zero cut runs, and many of his one cut runs featured moves that could be described as ponderous.

                On top of that, for a guy who nearly tips the scales at 250, he goes down on first contact way too often. That’s in college, btw. What’s going to happen in the pros.

                I’m thinking Trent Richardson, redux.

                No comment needed on Lynch.

              3. Goff has run the zone read, and Kelly has shown he doesn’t need a QB who runs the ball anyway.

                My concerns with Henry aren’t related to his experience. It’s the fact he’s a big guy who can be shut down if he’s forced to run sideways.

              4. Goff doesn’t have the size to stay healthy running the zone read in the NFL. Kelly’s running game averaged 3.9 yards per carry last season with a QB who couldn’t run the ball.

              5. He was there 3 years Grant;not 1. The first two years he was there the Eagles finished 2nd and 5th overall with non running QB’s. The biggest problem they had last year was their Oline because Kelly replaced 3/5’s of it and they didn’t gel. Murray also wasn’t a good fit in that system.

                Goff is actually the most ideal QB for Kelly’s offense in the draft. He’s thrown it over 600 times in a season which Kelly’s offense calls for, he’s also accurate and makes quick decisions which are the key to Kelly’s offense being effective. He can run it if he has to, but as we’ve seen in Philly, the QB doesn’t have to run to have success.

              6. Year 2 the Eagles averaged 4.2 yards per carry, which was the league average.

              7. Just so there is no confusion, the 2nd and 5th rankings were for total offense. They were first and ninth in rushing in those seasons.

              8. Goff’s rushing average on actual rushes (taking out rushing attempts and yards lost on sacks) last year was about 6.0 yards per carry. Nobody is going to mistake him for Kaepernick or Wilson, but he’s not incapable of running, occasionally.

              9. Goff is only 21. He will get bigger. If he’s still not suited for zone read, get a new HC.

                No secret I’m high on Goff. It would be bitter to think we passed on the better QB because we are stuck on an offense the league is determined to legislate out of existence.

                (I could explain the legislate part but I’m on a tablet at the moment.

              10. Kelly’s QBs have a history of getting hurt. I think Goff would get banged up in Kelly’s offense.

              11. That’s why a guy like Henry would be a great fit. More emphasis on the run which will benefit whoever is back there the luxury of play action.
                Why was what’s his face so good 2 years ago? That’s right folks, Play action!

              12. Spot on Rocket,Goff is hands down the best QB in this draft in my estimation,durability concerns are pure conjecture and certainly not based on his college history.Lynch in the 7th slot is a mistake imo if we want a big gun project Cardale Jones may offer as much if not more in a later round(although after mocking him recently and enduring cross exams I’m not so sure he fits the read option Kelly runs). I like Carroo but if we want to discuss injury issues we may want to examine Caroo’s “upper body “issues,read concussions,and he has had atleast four.That my friends is a serious issue for him and the team that takes him the draft. Henry is a talented North/South runner but someone like K.Dixon offers comparable talent with a more extended play arsenal and greater lateral capability. I’m good with S.Anderson TE late but like Temmarick Hemmingway a bit more. Not real big on this scenario Grant.

              13. Goff will have durability concerns if he has to run the zone-read in the NFL.

            3. I think you are right about the experience factor Grant. I like Wentz, but I get what you are saying.

              It’s always harder to scout a player out of these small conferences like Missouri Valley Football Conference, D1-FCS (I still call it D1-AA). Even though 49ers fans would be very familiar with the type of offense Wentz ran at ND State, because it’s almost identical to the type of offense Jim Harbaugh loves. A sort of “Power, West Coast” with heavy usage of fullbacks and under-center formations (Wentz was mostly under center), with the occasional Shotgun and Pistol formations thrown in, Wentz is lacking experience when it comes to facing the type of speed and athleticism that guys from big conferences like the SEC, Big 10, Pac 12, face regularly. Wentz simply doesn’t have much experience facing those types of defenses, so it’s simply tougher to project how well he’ll play at the NFL level, when it’s such a big step up in athleticism and talent.

        1. Love the tight end. He has a QB who can find him, and he can correct for the angles. If that wasn’t the worst clip of Lynch it would not be an upgrade over Kaepernick. They look like twins.

          Goff looks good in the tight end clip.

        2. Grant, is your Lynch pick based on observation alone, or is there also grapevine chatter about him too?

  6. Lynch and his slow release? Stop it please, he’s not a top 10 talent and is stupid raw. Love the Carroo pick…no way is Yannick Ngakoue getting drafted in the top 100! and no OL until the 6th round? this is horrible down right horrible.

    1. *That is, trading down from # 7 to acquire an additional 2nd and 3rd rounder, then choosing a top defender in round # 1, Stanford OT, Andrus Pete then Utah’s Guard, Jeremiah Poutasi, and a mid round QB that Kelly can develop would, percentage wise, be the best avenue for Baalke.

    1. However, Lynch certainly is a talent, but at this point Baalke might panic, avoiding Lynch to acquire the additional draft picks figuring he’s not drafted well recently so the draft numbers favor him with a higher number of picks;.

  7. This could affect drafting QB in RD # 1 if the 49er front office doesn’t chip in some cash to only to make a point by Matt in Grant’s Kap to attend 49ers offseason workout program


    April 4, 2016 at 2:03 pm

    Is 4.9 million the cost of a second round pick? In my inexperience, that seems like a great deal. If in fact Denver is willing to trade the second round pick for the 4.9 million from the 49ers and pay Kaepernick 7 million.

  8. I like the mock draft, especially Henry. Regardless of who the Niners take the defacto in all of it is the competitive nature of each guy.
    I’m hoping Baalkes scout are interviewing all the guys on their board with the premise “do you hate to lose more than you like winning”
    Patrick Willis had that quality, Justin Smith, Frank Gore and no one made it more famous than the legendary Jerry Rice!

  9. If Goff isn’t there at #7 Baalke shouldn’t draft a QB till the 3rd or 4th round.

      1. I disagree. Reaching because of need is bad draft strategy, they already have 3 QBs on the roster(not counting Kap), and Watson will be in the next draft.

        Just because you draft a QB with a high pick doesn’t mean he’s a good QB.

            1. No, the best QB in the draft is a better prospect than the second best, and so on, no matter where they are drafted. They may not be getting “value” if they take, for example, Lynch in round 1. But if they believe he is a better prospect than Prescott or Hogan or whoever may be available to them in the mid rounds, then he’s a better prospect (in the team’s eyes) regardless of value for the pick chosen.

              1. Scooter,

                Two things can be equally true. You’re right, Lynch could be seen, and probably is, better than a mid round QB, but, IMO, that doesn’t necessarily justify reaching, er, over drafting him if he’s really a late first round or later talent.

              2. I didn’t say it did. But if the 49ers trade Kaep they have Gabbert and nobody else. It puts them in a position where they pretty much need to draft one of the top QBs in this draft.

              3. Scooter,

                I misinterpreted your comment on the subject. Sorry about that.

                Grimey: Unless you’re reaching…

                Scooter: No, the best prospect is better than the second best, and so on, no matter where they are drafted.

                I thought you were saying it wouldn’t be a reach, and that the 49ers should consider taking Lynch based on the above exchange.

              4. Nw Ex.

                All I am saying is that draft position and “value” is out of the equation once the season starts. If the 49ers rate Lynch higher than the guys likely to be available in the mid rounds, then regardless of whether they reach for him they will have a better QB prospect than the alternative of waiting until the mid rounds where there is better “value”.

              5. Spot on Scooter. And if you think that QB prospect has the potential to develop into a quality NFL starting QB, it really doesn’t matter where you draft him. I’d rather reach a little for a QB if I like him enough, than wait and draft a lesser prospect later, just because he’s considered a better value because he was drafted in a later round.

                With one exception. A situation like the Cowboys are facing. Jerry Jones wants Tony Romo to be the Cowboys starting QB for at least 2 more seasons (though he’ll tell you 3 or 4). Even though it’s questionable whether Tony can stay healthy enough to get through a full season, going for value drafting a QB outside of round one, makes a lot more sense, IMO. Far less pressure to bench Tony if he has a few struggles.

                It’s for that reason that I doubt Jerry drafts a QB in round one, even with an injury prone QB.

              6. I mean spot on with your other post. I happen to agree with Grants here. I like Lynch and can see him fitting in Chip’s system.

                Again, maybe #7 is a bit too high, but if Chip Kelly has identified Lynch as “the guy” then you take em where you’re picking, and that happens to be #7.

              7. Yeah, No. 7 could be too high. Not sure how far the Niners could trade down and get him, though. Eagles could take him at No. 8.

      2. Yep. Can’t go into the season with just Gabbert, a mid round rookie and a low tier FA at QB.

        1. If they trade CK, they will need to draft a QB and sign a vet. Can’t have Gabbert go down and force the rookie into action in say week 4.

          1. If Gabbert goes down you aren’t playing for a super bowl. So, playing a rookie would be of little consequence.

      3. Agreed, but if they trade Kap to Denver, Lynch may fall to us in the second round.

        1. Anthony Davis may not truly want to play, and it would take a number of high draft picks on top of that. Unless they are truly enamored with one of the QB’s, I can’t see anyway they would trade up to #1. The last thing a rebuilding team should be doing is trading away premium picks.

    1. You fools are so obsessed with Goff. Goff looks like he had bust written all over him. The comparisons to Rodgers are ludicrous. Goff doesn;t have that kind of arm stregnth quick release accuracy or mobility. He doesn’t do that good a job taking care of the football. HE played poorly in some of the only tough games he had in college. Goff reminds me a lot of a less athletic Gabbert while coming out and rather than wasting a pick on Goff I would like Gabbert to get a chance. Ultimately Goff isn’t a winner. All the quaterbacks that have been successful in transforming there teams such as Newton Luck Dalton Russell Wilson Winston Mariota Carr (or are taking their teams in the right direction by showing promise) were all winners. The goff obsession needs to stop.

    2. Hey Grime where ya been? Good to see you back for how ever long it may be.

      I’m going back and forth about how I feel about the QB’s after Goff who I rate as the best one in the draft. Wentz has all the requirements except experience. I worry about his lack of College snaps. Lynch I really can’t get excited about because of the offense he plays in. There are few examples of intermediate to long passes into tight windows, and he really had few responsibilities as far as reads and play calling. Physically he looks the part but so have a lot of busts in the past.

      If Cook were to fall to the second round pick and they hadn’t taken a QB in round one, I’d be ok with him at that point although I’d be even better with him in the 3rd.

  10. If the Niners made these picks at these spots, count me as disappointed. Not sure how the Rams feel about Lynch, but Baalke could trade back far enough to fetch an extra 2nd rounder a nd still get Lynch.

    If I was in a trade back mode, I’d trade back to 16 and pick Lee, then trade 37+3rd rounder and pick Lynch in the 20 range. Use the 4th+new 2nd to choose the running back in the early 2nd.

  11. We need weapons for the offense to work, and a lot of these picks would be welcome.

    I’d like to see the Niners get a “no-doubt-about-it” offensive lineman before pick number four. Nothing good will come of a rookie QB and Gabbert scurrying behind an in-effective line.

  12. Lynch at #7 seems kind of high to me. I’m sure there will be a run on QBs at some point…but still #7…seems like a reach.

    What do you think of Rothlesberger as a Lynch comparison? He’s a big guy that can buy time with his feet and could even scramble…especially in his early years…but he’s not going to light you up on the ground either.

    Did you go with best player available or by need or some sort of combination? Henry seems like a luxury in the 2nd round. But then again if he gets to the 2nd round he may be too much of a value to pass up.

    1. also, I’m not sure I like the idea of a 6’3″ running back. just seems like too big of a target to not miss to bring down.

    2. I’m starting to see people mock Lynch to the Eagles at No. 8.

      Roethlisberger seems like a good comparison.

      1. Is it possible the Niners make the deal for you know at the draft to not show their hand at #7 beforehand?

        1. That’s my take on it. Retaining CK gives Baalke more flexibility in case great BPA falls to 7… Or 37. If the do go QB at 7 there could be a QB needy team that missed out on the musical chairs game… Jets or Bronco’s or… Baalke could drive a hard bargain.

      2. I think Kaepernick is a better comparison for Lynch, but without the speed.

        1. I think Rivers is a good comparison for Lynch. The two had very similar college careers statistically speaking. Like Rivers, Lynch needs to sit and learn for at least two seasons before being ready to start but once he does I could see him having a similar professional career as well.

          1. If the 49ers do indeed draft him, then I hope you are right… or better yet, that the Roethlisberger comparison is right!

              1. The comparison that I have seen the most for Lynch is Joe Flacco. I agree with this, but I would also throw in Alex Smith or Marcus Mariota in there as well.

              2. I have the impression, and would hope, that Lynch would be much more mobile than Flacco.

              3. Flacco is a decent comparison, but Lynch is more athletic and more experienced running the ball.

            1. He completed 48.2 percent of his passes that traveled longer than 20 yards downfield. That’s very good.

              1. Lynch has terrific touch and ball placement on deep throws. Kaepernick doesn’t.

              2. Much better accuracy and touch on short throws, too. Also is more elusive in the pocket. A better passer than Kaepernick.

              3. Same issues reading defenses. Lets face it, for all Kaep’s short-comings the reason he hasn’t taken the next step has little to do with his accuracy, and a lot to do with his inability to read defenses and go through his progressions. I see Lynch being very similar. Pretty much a one read QB, mostly based on pre-snap determination.

                I also don’t really see him being that much more elusive than Kaep in the pocket. They move very similarly, just Lynch is taller and Kaep is faster in a straight line.

              4. Lynch is 22 and improving. When did Kaepernick ever in his life toss 28 TD passes in a season, or complete 66 percent of his passes?

              5. Cam Newton without the speed seems like a better comparison for Lynch than Kaepernick without the speed.

              6. Agree with Scooter. I’m leery of how well Lynch will develop in the NFL and in the second round I’d consider it, but at #7? Not a chance.

              7. Is this niners team a good situation for a kid who needs to develop a lot both from a qb perspective and from a maturity perspective?

                walter football

                “Sources have said that in going through Memphis, head coach Justin Fuente told NFL evaluators that Lynch was not as developed right now as Andy Dalton was as a senior at TCU (Fuente was Dalton’s offensive coordinator). Fuente has told scouts that on the field from a football IQ and execution perspective, Lynch needs development. He said off the field, Lynch needs guidance for maturing into a professional and handling the status of being a starting quarterback in the NFL. Thus, Lynch is raw in a variety of ways.

                As per (walterfootball) scouts in contact with his qb coach at Memphis stated he was far behind Dalton in terms of understanding the offense and indicated he was not very mature yet.

          1. Grant ..

            Who do you see taking Goff ? … and ..
            if it’s not the Niners ..

            then what happens if
            Goff pulls a “John Elway” .. or “Eli Manning” .. by
            thumbing his nose and saying ..

            “Na-a-a – na-a-a … I won’t play for you”

            and he ends up in Santa Clara ?

    1. Baalke just started hyperventilating and doesn’t know why.

  13. MW, Goff said recently that he would love to be drafted by the Niners. He said it would be awesome.

  14. My only pause regarding P.Lynch is that I feel #7 is a little high – but other than that, I’d be fine with Paxton wearing the Red&Gold.

    Up until the last few weeks of the college season PL was considered the number 1 QB and his brand really took a negative hit with his poor bowl game.
    But Lynch has all the measurables the pro game looks for. Big, strong, confident, and just accurate enough to make his niche in the next level.

    Having said that, I still see the 49ers making a strong push to deal for Wentz. The 49ers will need to secure the number 1 or 2 pick to have a chance at the Wentz sweepstakes imo.

    If a deal can’t be made then we could wait until the 2-3 rd for a QB like Cook, Prescott, or even Jacoby Brissett who is my personal darkhorse pick on day two.
    I really like JB’ game. Not as big as Lynch standing in at 6’3″ but just as accurate and a much better runner and athlete then PL. Watching Brissett run reminds me of RB who has good vision and great timing at making the cut just at the right moment.

    1. People are overreacting to one game. Same thing happened to Derek Carr a couple of years ago.

      1. Yep especially you. I remember you saying how much better Fales was than Carr multiple times ;)

          1. Grant, is your Lynch mock based on 49er needs and scheme fit… or is there some scuttlebutt about Lynch from the 49ers camp in addition?

              1. Here’s hoping it stays that way. He’s a long term project.

              2. Cardale Jones and Kevin Hogan would be superior QBs in a Chip Kelly offense, and could be selected later. Save number 7 for an elite pass rusher.

              3. Cardale Jones is JaMarcus Russell with way less experience. No thanks.
                I love Hogan. He has played under center, he sees the whole field and throws with anticipation, unlike Lynch.
                I don’t think Kelly will care much for Hogan, though. Kelly has a legitimate problem protecting QBs, and not just in the zone-read running game. In the passing game, too. I think Kelly will want a bigger quarterback, someone at least 230 pounds. Paxton Lynch or Jeff Driskel. Just a hunch.

      2. Grant,
        Lynch’ bowl game was a disaster, but his overall sample of play has been very good. There is a reason why he was considered the best QB for the better part of the season.

  15. Grant, I know you are putting Lynch out there as a good way to generate posts, but selecting Lynch at 7 is ludicrous. He might easily be available in the second round, and he has knee issues. Lynch sounds like another Bradford, and he played lower level talent to pad his stats. In his last game, he passed for 106 yards with an interception, and lost by 3 TDs. When it came to a big game against a talented squad, Lynch fell flat on his face.
    If anything, the Niners should draft an elite pass rusher at 7 and then select Cardale Jones in the second, or Kevin Hogan in the third.
    Braxton Miller used to play QB and did very well a couple years ago, So he might even be a superior QB, if you want to find the best fit for the Chip Kelly system. Vernon Adams, Jacoby Brissett or Jeff Driskel would be preferable to Lynch.
    With the draft approaching, and Kaep likely gone, this latest mock is the weakest yet, and will be nowhere near accurate. Why waste a pick on a WR when the O line has not measurably improved, so the QB will get sacked before the WRs can get down field?
    With Kaep gone, the need to select a QB has increased. If Goff or Wentz are available, they are both way superior to Lynch. If AD does not return, selecting Stanley may be the best choice. Brown may have slimmed down, but he may not fit well with a Chip Kelly offense.
    Henry may not get out of the first round, and if he does, Dallas will probably select him with their second round pick. Spriggs will be a far more realistic pick and he would fit very well into a Chip Kelly offense. His 40 time was impressive.
    Caroo is radioactive, Even being accused of DV is a black flag to me.
    Waiting so long to select Defenders just means they are not part of the sweet spot of the draft, and some have more weaknesses than strengths. Missing out on a pass rusher or an O lineman in the first 3 rounds will just doom the Niners to another 5-11 season.
    Niners need immediate help now. Lynch said he would be content sitting and learning his first year. He would be such a terrible choice, Baalke may just pick him.
    Grant, I expect better of you. Please come up with a more realistic mock. Maybe a trade back with Indy so the Niners get 3 picks in the first 2 rounds would be the best strategy.

    1. Niners don’t need immediate help now. They’re rebuilding. They can afford to develop someone like Lynch.

      1. Any 5-11 team needs immediate help now. Maybe you are thinking that Jed will be content to lose so he can get a high draft position, and will be rebuilding through the draft over the next few seasons. That may be the only strategy since they cannot rebuild through free agency.
        Still will respectfully disagree about Lynch. He may be more of a Jamarcus Russel Type than Cardale Jones. At least CJ won a national championship as a QB, so he can lead a team, and showed good running skills.

        1. Jones has talent but is really undeveloped. He attempted 269 passes in college.

            1. For a guy who had zero idea how to play football, he had enough of an idea to be able to win a national championship. I will take a guy like that any day. Sounds like he can think quick on his feet.

      2. I agree that rebuilding allows them to develop someone like Lynch, but I would rather that player be Hogan. Waldman commented that, above the neck, Hogan was “supposed to be off the charts.” With him the scouts don’t like his mechanics, or so it seems to me.

        1. I also prefer Hogan, but suspect Kelly will prefer Lynch. Most of Lynch’s question marks would go away in Kelly’s spread offense. Lynch is a good fit.

          1. I guess we just have a difference of opinion. I think Dak Prescott would be better than Lynch, and maybe even Hackenberg. I would take Lynch over Cook, tho.
            Still think Hogan at where he will be drafted, may be the best option for the Niners.
            I think Broncos, if they do not get Kaep, may select Cardale Jones in the second. He is zooming up the draft charts.
            Broncos will probably use their first to pick a successor to Jackson or Trevathan.

  16. On ESPN yesterday they cut to an interview with Greg Hardy. I knew I didn’t care to listen but just as I was turning it off I heard him claim he never laid a hand on that woman. So I went out and pulled some weeds.
    Today I see where Steve Smith mocked Hardy’s comments. I respect Steve Smith, not surprised a former teammate doesn’t respect Hardy.

    Regarding the draft (to get back to football):
    Some here like Henry in the second for SF. He’s an NFL talent for sure, but I wonder if he’d be the right system fit for Kelly. It’s a bit hard to predict what Kelly will serve up this time, his offense might be a little different than in Philly. My question is, isn’t Henry’s running style similar to Murray’s? The style that didn’t produce in Philly’s offense? There were some cohesion problems on Beagles’ OL, but there will be new faces in SF OL too.
    That’s just something to consider, not an indictment of Henry. I will note also that this is the time of year when media and fans begin talking themselves out of prospects; perhaps I’m guilty of that here.

    1. Murray had success in Dallas running outside zone plays with the quarterback under center, allowing Murray to line up deeper in the backfield.

      Henry had success at Alabama running inside zone plays with the quarterback in the shotgun. That’s how Kelly used LeGarrette Blount at Oregon.

      1. By the by Grant ,I like the M.North pick.There are several WR in the mid to late rounds who hold promise and he is one of them for me. The others for me are Malcom Mitchell,J.Payton,and my guy Mike Thomas(the other one from S.Miss.)!

      2. Well Murray picked up a lot of yards running behind RG at Dallas too, and yes he did like that deeper set in the backfield, but he seemed to exploit blocking behind a good OL in Dallas rather than create some of his own holes. All the factors worked against him in Philly, and I haven’t forgotten who pursued him and signed him into the system…….but, same guy called Gore first. It’s curious.

    1. Beyond awful…the second coming of #62 Chilo Rachal. Guy can’t even block…up a toilet. Baalke…geez.

  17. Derrick Henry’s ceiling is LaGarette Blount, a former Kelly player. His floor is Ron Dayne. I’d rather take a burner like Tyler Ervin later.

    If you listened to Matt Waldman’s draft breakdown, this is a guy that spends hours and hours looking at tape with sharp eye, backed by intelligent metrics and he says that Goff is head and shoulders above any QB in the draft and that Lynch could be a slightly better than average starter at some point.

    I tend to put more stock in what Waldman does than what you do Grant. He does it full time and while you have a lot more knowledge and perhaps some insight into the org, it’s not on Waldman’s level.

    Goff > Lynch

    1. Draft “experts” in general tend to find new ways to slam QBs for the offense they played in/not being finished products. NFL coaches don’t think that way.

    2. Waldman rates Lynch as the 4th best QB in the draft so not that bad(and surprises with a higher rating for Cardale) his approach is innovative and maverick and not always the traditionalists cup of tea-I have nothing but respect for him but no need to denigrate Grant here.He has more chops than some think.

      1. Not slamming Grant and I was giving him his due. I just think Waldman is more dialed in because he spends ALL of his working time plying his trade. Like Grant, he’s a writer as well, but it’s player specific and evaluation centric. I’m sure if Waldman was tasked to come up with writing an insightful and cutting piece about the Niners, York, etc., he might do okay, but he wouldn’t do as well as Grant.

        I like what Waldman has to say about Goff as well as Mike Mayock and as much as some people think Mayock is playing it a little on the safe side, I still think he is very good at breaking down high profile players.

        I think Goff has some Brett Favre in him and ironically they share the same birthday.

        1. I’m just listening to Waldman on Lynch now. Sounds like Waldman is critiquing Lynch for not being more polished.

          I like Goff, too, but he’d get hurt running the zone-read in the NFL.

          1. Grant, Goff hasn’t come into his man body yet. He will. He’ll add about 10 pounds and remember that Sam Bradford was constantly hurt until Kelly got ahold of him and helped him with strength and conditioning and while he got nicked up, the fragile Bradford player a mostly full season for Kelly.

            I have little doubt he could do the same for Goff.

          2. Grant -chatting on a podcast doesn’t really reveal Waldman’s depth of research. I highly recommend downloading his RSP for 2016- very nice work. Waldman critiques Lynch for more specific aspects of his game there than being unpolished (a hitch in in his throwing when he torques his hip at release causing a tendency for his passes to sink for example) but you might be surprised by his overall view of Lynch.

          3. I think you’re putting way too much emphasis on how often the QB will run in Kelly’s offense Grant. He doesn’t want the QB running unless the DE bites hard on a zone read play, and if that’s the case any QB can gain a few yards on it. Goff has run that play at Cal, and he’s never been hurt. Kelly had small QB’s at Oregon and they didn’t get hurt running his offense. It’s about being decisive and making the proper decisions and Goff can do that.

            This quote is from David Neumann’s breakdown of Kelly’s offense on Niner Nation:

            The zone read as Kelly runs it is not a tactic to create rushing opportunities for his quarterback. Rather, it’s an extension of the blocking scheme that flips the numbers advantage in the box from the defense to the offense. As Kelly explained to his clinic audience, “We want the ball in the running back’s hands. We do not want the quarterback carrying the ball. The option can put the ball in his hands, but the defense can force it out of his hands. We want the quarterback to give the ball unless he cannot.”

            This is why Foles, Sanchez and Bradford have all had a measure of success in the offense even though two of them have zero mobility.

            1. Without a legitimate rushing threat at QB, Kelly’s running game is NFL average at best in terms of yards per carry.

              Goff may have run the zone read a few times in college, but he would get lit up running that play in the pros.

              1. But between guys like Hyde, Draughn and a guy like D. Henry would it matter? The idea behind the zone read is it not for the QB to pick up a deceptive 5-10 yards?

              2. Yes, it would matter. Even LeSean McCoy looked average in 2014 when opposing teams realized they didn’t have to worry about Foles running the ball.

              3. Average is subjective Grant. It’s more about the total yardage and carries because that is the deciding factor on whether you are able to maintain your running game consistently. Last year the Eagles struggled running the ball but again that was more on the Oline, and even then they still finished 14th overall. Kelly hasn’t had a running QB in the NFL other than Vick for a few starts and yet they still have routinely been among the highest rushing teams in the league.

                I’ve posted words from the man himself stating he doesn’t want his QB running the ball. Sure it’s nice to have a running threat, but that isn’t what he needs the most from the QB in his offense. He wants quick decision making and ball movement. That is the key to his offense.

              4. Average is not subjective. NFL average was precisely 4.2 yards per carry in 2014. Kelly’s total rushing numbers always are inflated because his offense runs more plays than other offenses.

                Stats prove Kelly’s offense becomes average at best in terms of yards per play and yards per carry when the quarterback isn’t a rushing threat.

              5. Even LeSean McCoy looked average in 2014 when opposing teams realized they didn’t have to worry about Foles running the ball.

                He was the 3rd leading rusher in the league. Yards per carry is not a reflection of how effective the running game is Grant. One loss behind the LOS can negatively effect the yards per carry just as one big play can blow it up in a positive way. it doesn’t demonstrate how effective the running game was from game to game and how the team used it in different situations. If a team is putting up high yardage totals and carries it means the running game was working.

                An example of how YPC can be misleading: Justin Forsett averaged 5.4 yards a carry that season. I don’t think anyone would rank Justin Forsett as anything more than a Journeyman RB.

              6. He was the 3rd leading rusher in the league.

                That’s because he had the second-most attempts in the league. Yards per carry over a large sample size (a season) is the best way to measure a running game.

              7. Good point Grant but I’ve never been a fan of the QB running the ball. Now don’t get me wrong, I was a big Steve Young fan but a lot of his runs were spontaneous. Relying or calling plays exclusively for the QB to run the ball is now part of the NFL but for most teams it is less than 10% of the time.
                If your a NFL QB and you cannot pick up the occasional 5-10 yards on a designed/deceptive run play call, you probably shouldn’t be playing. I mean even statues like Big Ben can get away with the occasional scramble. Although the game has changed to more athletic type QB’s, it still requires the QB to play inside the pocket more than 80% of the time. Its a passing and league.
                I see Kelly as the type of coach to design plays based on personnel and not concept. If Goff or Wentz or whomever can run and be illusive, they will use it, otherwise, why do it?

              8. Kelly’s running game doesn’t work unless the opposing defense thinks the quarterback could keep the ball and run on any given play. So the quarterback has to keep the ball and run about five times per game to keep the defense honest.

              9. Average is not subjective. NFL average was precisely 4.2 yards per carry in 2014. Kelly’s total rushing numbers always are inflated because his offense runs so many plays.

                You can’t run all those plays if you aren’t getting 1st downs Grant. Up tempo or not, the offense has to keep moving the chains in order to run the amount of plays they do.

                Stats prove Kelly’s offense becomes average at best in terms of yards per play and yards per carry when the quarterback isn’t a rushing threat.

                They do? What stats are you referring too?

              10. Kelly’s running game doesn’t work unless the opposing defense thinks the quarterback could keep the ball and run on any given play.

                That is simply not true Grant. Again you are putting way more emphasis on the QB running the ball than Kelly does.

                So the quarterback has to keep the ball and run about five times a game to keep the defense honest.

                I don’t disagree with this but it’s not a necessity. Foles averaged a little over 5 carries a game in Kelly’s first year when they went 8-2 in the games he started. The next season he averaged 2 carries a game and they went 6-2 in the games he started.

              11. The next season he averaged 2 carries a game…

                And the efficiency of the running game dipped big time.

              12. Yards per play and yards per carry.

                No I mean where are the NFL stats to prove Kelly’s offense becomes average at best in terms of yards per play and yards per carry when the quarterback isn’t a rushing threat.

              13. Eagles averaged 5.3 yards per play and 3.9 yards per carry in 2015. League average was 5.5/4.1.

                From the point in 2014 when Fangio showed the league you don’t have to worry about Foles running, the Eagles averaged 5.5 yards per play and 4.2 yards per carry. League average was 5.4/4.2.

              14. And the efficiency of the running game dipped big time.

                No it didn’t. They had two poor games back to back against the Redskins and Niners. In the other 6 games Foles started that season they averaged 153 rushing yards a game. Again this is a clear example of how ypc doesn’t tell the whole story. 2 games dropped the overall average down, but they had a dominant running game in the other 6.

              15. In the other 6 games Foles started that season they averaged 153 rushing yards a game.

                That’s because they played bad defenses in those games.

              16. From the point in 2014 when Fangio showed the league you don’t have to worry about Foles running, the Eagles averaged 5.5 yards per play and 4.2 yards per carry. League average was 5.4/4.2.

                You’ve tried this before and I pointed out to you that Fangio didn’t show the league anything as the Eagles offense put up some huge numbers after that game. You also are ignoring the fact the Eagles had to make a QB switch in midseason to Sanchez who was a better running threat than Foles, ran more than Foles and yet the rushing game dropped to 125 yards per game in Sanchez’s starts.

              17. the Eagles offense put up some huge numbers after that game.

                Against bad defenses.

              18. That’s because they played bad defenses in those games.

                The last desperation line for a bad argument.

              19. They played against teams that ranked toward the bottom of the league in yards allowed.

              20. Dallas was ranked 8th overall in rushing defense. Philly put 256 rushing yards on them.

                Houston was 10th overall. Philly put up 190 on them.

                Both games came after Fangio supposedly gave everybody the recipe.

                Give it up Grant.

              21. Dallas ranked 17th in rushing yards per attempt allowed in 2014, and they held Philly to just 75 rushing yards in Philly Week 15.

                Houston’s defense was not good before the Bye Week in 2014. It was getting gorged in all kinds of different ways.

              22. Dallas ranked 17th in yards per attempt allowed in 2014, and they held Philly to just 75 rushing yards in Philly Week 15.

                They were 2 tenth’s of a yard out of 8th. The 256 yards they gave up to the Eagles also would have blown up their yards per attempt just a little don’t you think?

                Houston’s defense was not good before the Bye Week in 2014. It was getting gorged in all kinds of different ways.

                I’ve got you Grant. I know you hate giving up but I’ve got you. These are weak retorts that don’t back up your argument and you can’t dismiss my points. That is what we call game, set and match.

              23. The person who keeps trying to end the argument is the person with the weak argument. Dallas caught on to Philly’s running game and shut it down just two weeks later. Easy. And Houston’s defense gave up 194 rushing yards to Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams before the Bye Week. Houston’s defense didn’t come together until after the Bye week.

              24. No the debate ends when one side can no longer support their position reasonably. As soon as you resorted to bringing in the weak defense argument, which was then refuted by the facts I put forth, it was over. The weak defense point could be used to downgrade every offense in the league. It is not a rational point in correlating what you are trying to say. You can’t counter what I’m throwing at you with anything other than conjecture and subjective reasoning.

              25. The Eagles ran well against one good run defense — Houston, who had never faced Kelly’s offense. That’s a small sample. The large sample said Philly’s running game was average in 2014. Now you’ll try to attack yards per carry as a stat, which is the essence of being unable to support a position reasonably.

              26. Well at least you admitted something finally even though the point is incorrect. They faced 2 top ten run defenses and piled up rushing yards on both. The second game against Dallas does not take away the first game. The second game was a different time and place and the Eagles ran the ball less than half the amount of times they did in the first game. McCoy was averaging 4 yards per carry so it’s not like he was getting stuffed either.

                I’m also not attacking yards per carry Grant. I’m saying it can be deceiving and not indicative of the true picture. One carry for a loss can drop the ypc but if every other carry was for 4 yards or more, it obviously didn’t have an impact on the running game as a whole. If you are holding a lead and running into a defense that knows you are trying to run to bleed the clock, you are going to get dropped for minimal gains a lot of the time and that too will affect your yards per carry negatively.

                The amount of overall carries and yards are more of an indication of the effectiveness of a running game because you can’t keep running the ball and piling up yards if it’s being stopped. That’s just common sense.

                Bottom line is your Fangio argument is not supported by facts. Neither is your point that the Eagles running game suffers without a running QB.

              27. Dallas ranked in the bottom half of the league in yards per carry allowed. One good run defense.

                The efficiency of Kelly’s run game took a dive over a large sample size after the Fangio game. No getting around that.

              28. Dallas ranked in the bottom half of the league in yards per carry allowed. One good run defense.

                Again, they were 2 tenths of a yard behind the 8th place run defense, and the amount of yards they gave up to the Eagles played a large role in that difference of yards per carry. The half truths don’t work here Grant.

                The efficiency of Kelly’s run game took a dive over a large sample size after the Fangio game. No getting around that.

                Eagles rushing yards in the 3 games before facing Fangio: 326 and ypc of 3.9

                3 games after facing Fangio: 458 yards and ypc of 4.8

                Rest of season after facing Fangio: 1644 yards and ypc of 4.4

                Sometimes you have to know when to quit Grant.

              29. Those are small sample sizes that are greatly affected by one game here and there. I’m talking large sample sizes. Philly averaged 5.1 yards per carry year 1, 4.2 yards per carry year 2 and 3.9 yards per carry year 3. The difference — teams stopped worrying about the QB as a run threat after Year 1.

                The Cowboys gave up a lot of run yards to the Eagles the first time because they weren’t a good run defense. Teams just chose to pass on the Cowboys defense because they averaged a whopping 7.5 yards per attempt against Dallas’ pass defense.

              30. I just did a breakdown of the whole second season for you. That is not a small sample size and what I came up with completely blows up your Fangio theory. There is also no truth to the running game not being as good without a running threat at QB. Those were the points you made at the top of this thread Grant. Both have unequivocally been proven false.

              31. Indeed, it is not a small sample size, and the running game averaged only 4.2 yards per carry.
                The yards per carry average dropped almost a full yard from one season to the next. That’s the affect of a non-running QB.

              32. Indeed, it is not a small sample size, and the running game averaged only 4.2 yards per carry.
                The yards per carry average dropped almost a full yard from one season to the next. That’s the affect of a non-running QB.

                No it’s not. A Non running QB played the majority of that previous season when they achieved the ypc of 5.1.

              33. But he rushed 5 times a game and defenses treated him like a rushing threat. That changed Year 2, and the running-game’s efficiency plummeted as a result.

              34. But he rushed 5 times a game and defenses treated him like a rushing threat. That changed Year 2, and the running-game’s efficiency plummeted as a result.

                Lol you can’t even remember what was said earlier in the thread now. That is incorrect just just as it was the first time you said it. The running game in year 2 with Foles averaged 153 yards a game in 6 out of his 8 starts. That is posted above already.

              35. The Eagles running game went from averaging 5.1 yards per carry over 16 games in 2013 to 4.2 yards per carry over 16 games in 2014. That’s a gigantic drop from one large sample size to the next. The league caught on. It’s clear as day.

              36. You are going in circles now Grant. Every point you put out there has been answered and proven to be incorrect already. The details are all here in this thread.

              37. The league caught on, Rocket. No other way to explain a .9 drop in ypc from 2013 to 2014.

              38. The league caught on, Rocket. No other way to explain a .9 drop in ypc from 2013 to 2014.

                It’s already been explained very clearly Grant. You just don’t want to accept it.

                Your thoughts that started this discussion have been debunked. The Eagle running game is not dependent on a running threat at QB nor does it need one to be effective. The second point about the Eagle running game dropping off once Fangio gave the league this magic formula is even more off base. Not only was the Eagle running game just as good as it was before the 9er game that season, it was better overall.

              39. You refuse to account for the Eagles’ .9 drop in ypc from year 1 to year 2 because it’s directly tied to the quarterback not being a running threat, which Fangio exposed.

              40. That’s simply not true Grant and I’ve already said why in this thread. I’ll just put one more stat out there. In Kelly’s first year the Eagles offense averaged 4.8 yards a carry in games Foles started. Non running, statuesque QB and yet they average 4.8 ypc. The rushing success is not dependent on the running ability of the QB. It’s why Kelly didn’t force the signing or drafting of a running QB and why he let Vick go once he saw Foles could run the system better.

              41. The league defended Foles like a rushing threat Year 1, but didn’t Year 2. The league caught on, thanks to Fangio. The zone-give is an average play at best. That’s the truth.

              42. Nobody thought of Foles as a running threat. The guy can’t run worth a damn. What happened in year two was an evolution to more passing compared to the previous year. Less QB rushing attempts and other than 2 games, a very effective running game in Foles 8 starts that year. That wasn’t by accident. Kelly didn’t want his QB running the ball and taking a risk of getting injured. He has realized he can’t run his QB in the NFL like he did in College and that is why his last two years in Philly saw more passing than running and fewer QB rushing attempts. You are making assumptions on an offense he doesn’t run anymore. This isn’t College Chip Kelly. He’s changed the focus of his offense the past two years and likely will continue to do so in SF.

              43. Opposing defenses hesitated at the mesh point year 1 instead of just flowing to LeSean McCoy like they did Year 2 when he averaged only 4.2 yards per carry, down from 5.1 in 2013.

                The running game was dead on arrival during 2 of the 7 full games Foles played in 2014. He only played in the first quarter against Houston, when the Eagles rushed for 12 yards on five carries. Overall, the Eagles averaged 4.2 yards per carry with Foles at QB in 2014. Average.

              44. You just keep repeating the same thing over and over. Foles wasn’t and never has been a rushing threat. They evolved into more of a passing offense in year two because Kelly saw how teams were starting to play his offense. That is how things work in this league. Defenses make adjustments and so does the offense. The running game was stopped in two of Foles starts, but the offense was only shut down in the SF game. After the SF game they got right back on track both on the ground and in the air, and were playing really well when Foles got injured.

              45. You’re not hearing me. Defenses hesitated at the mesh point year 1 but not year 2, and that’s why LeSean McCoy averaged almost a full yard less per carry in 2014 than he did in 2013. It’s that simple, Rocket.

              46. Defenses hesitated at the mesh point year 1 but not year 2, and that’s why LeSean McCoy averaged almost a full yard less per carry in 2014 than he did in 2013. It’s that simple, Rocket.

                I hear you fine, I just disagree with your view that it’s that simple. It’s not, and it’s more about how defenses started to play the Eagles offense than how they viewed the QB’s ability to run. Defenses started to focus more on the running game period in year two. Kelly combated that by throwing the ball more than he did the previous year. It’s cat and mouse and it’s not strictly based on how well the QB can run. There was a conscious effort by Kelly to keep Foles from running as much as he did the year before. It’s why his rushing attempts dropped and the pass attempts increased. It also resulted in his ypc being better ( i know how much you love that stat).

                You are trying to make this a simple matter of the QB not being able to run well resulting in a drop in the effectiveness of the running game and that simply isn’t true. Than ran the ball well in most of Foles starts in year two and had some great rushing games after he went down. It’s not nearly as simple as you claim it is.

              47. McCoy went from averaging 5.1 yards per carry in year 1 to 4.2 in year 2. You’re trying to say that’s some statistical fluke, but it’s not. It’s the direct result of opposing defenses not treating the Philly QB as a rushing threat Year 2 as they did Year 1. Foles ran the ball 4.4 times a game in 2013. He had to be accounted for.

              48. Rocket=Knowledgeable guy, but stubborn as a mule trying to make a point with

                Feel free to chime in and tell me where I’m wrong and being stubborn. If you read the entirety of this exchange between Grant and I (a chore I will admit) you can see clearly that his arguments about Fangio giving the league a recipe on how to shut down Kelly’s offense is complete bunk as is the idea that the running game isn’t effective without a running QB. You don’t have to take my word for it, just look it up. It’s all there.

              49. I’ll throw in one more response to your fixation on the drop in yards per carry from 2013 to 2014 and how it isn’t a great way to clarify the overall effectiveness of a running game.

                The Eagles had 4 games in which their running game was completely stuffed – Wash and SF in back to back weeks, and Carolina and Seattle later on in the year. In those 4 games they averaged 2.1 yards per carry. Their yards per carry the rest of the season: 4.6. They had ten games where they went over 100 yards and 2 where they went over 200. That affects the yards per carry positively. In other words, sometimes the defense wins and they play to shut down your running game. That’s going to happen at times, and the onus is on the Coaching staff to respond. Kelly responded by throwing the ball 150 more times than he ran it that season.

                Ultimately, the drop in yards per carry had nothing to do with the running ability of the QB, and more to do with certain defenses game planning to take the run away completely.

              50. In other words, if you take away 25 percent of the season, their running game was pretty good. Ha! The Eagles running game got stuffed three times in 2013, but still averaged 5.1 yards per carry. Can’t make these arguments with a large sample size, Rocket.

                Philly ran well against only one good run defense in 2014.

              51. I don’t know what else to say Grant. You are looking at his like it’s black and white when it’s not. There are clear examples of the running game being effective for the majority of year two with QB’s who weren’t runners. To say the running game is not good without a running QB is easily refuted. Was it great every week? Of course not, but it was good on most weeks and every game featured QB’s who are not great running threats. That seems pretty obvious and yet you continue to hide behind a YPC percentage drop over the course of an entire season and won’t deviate from that position. I mean how do you explain the running game averaging 5 yards a carry in 5 of Foles 7 complete games? How can that be if by your argument the running game was supposedly no good because nobody respected Foles as a running threat in season 2? The bad defense argument doesn’t fly. Every team in the league plays bad defenses, and you’d have to commit to the idea that Philly played at least 10 bad defenses that season considering they had a high ypc in at least 10 of those games.

                The Fangio argument is even easier to dismiss considering the Eagles put up 145 yards rushing the very next week and continued putting up huge rushing totals right to the end of the season.

                You argue for the sake of arguing sometimes and this is clearly one of those times because there is nothing that supports your contentions here. Saying it over and over doesn’t make it so.

              52. There are clear examples of the running game being effective for the majority of year two with QB’s who weren’t runners

                Not against good run defenses. Every time they faced a good one, they got shut down on the ground. Except against Houston, which shut down the Eagles’ running game when Foles was in the game.

                You’re trying to say it doesn’t matter how much the Eagles’ running game got dominated against good defenses because they performed well against bad ones. You have to acknowledge all 16 games, not just the ones that suit your argument. Over a 16 game season, the Eagles averaged 4.2 yards per carry. That’s average. You can try to puff it up all you want, though. Have at it.

              53. Not against good run defenses. Every time they faced a good one, they got shut down on the ground. Except against Houston, which shut down the Eagles’ running game when Foles was in the game.

                No they didn’t. Washington was 12th. The Rams were 15th Dallas was 8th. You can’t penalize based on who they play week to week. These guys aren’t robots and it’s not a video game.

                You’re trying to say it doesn’t matter how much the Eagles’ running game got dominated against good defenses because they performed well against bad ones

                That’s not what I said at all. I said Yards per carry can be skewed by a small sample of games in a season, and it can. That was a clear example. That was too show you that your fixation on the 9 tenths of a yard drop from year one to year two is not easy to decipher. There are many elements that affect it.

                You have to acknowledge all 16 games, not just the ones that suit your argument.

                Then why won’t you acknowledge that the Eagles had a very good YPC most of the time with no running threat at QB? I acknowledged that they had 4 terrible rushing games. I not only didn’t ignore them, I singled them out. You continue to ignore the fact that the Eagles had multiple games with great rushing totals without a running threat at QB. This is why I keep telling you your theory doesn’t fly. If they struggled running the ball the majority of the time without a QB running threat I would agree with you, but that simply wasn’t the case.

                Over a 16 game season, the Eagles averaged 4.2 yards per carry. That’s average. You can try to puff it up all you want, though. Have at it.

                I have never argued against that. The number is the number. I’m simply telling you that your conclusions are too simplistic and flawed. You don’t account for everything instead choosing to single out an element (a non running QB) that didn’t affect the running game at all most of the time.

              54. Almost every offense would have good numbers if you discounted its four worst games.

              55. I’m not going to keep explaining the same thing to you Grant. At some point it either sinks in or it doesn’t. Read over the thread and see if you can understand why you are so wrong in what have you have said here the last two days. If you can’t, then so be it.

        2. You are preaching to the choir here Waldman is my favorite player analyst by far and I’m firmly settled on the Goff bandwagon,sometimes language is tricky as meaning occurs in context so easy to misjudge intent without background! :)

  18. A.Davis seems so flakey to me that I don’t see how SF can have any expectations that they can count on him to be a football player. T.Brown still seems like a developing prospect that one has to take a deep breath on as a starter against elite edge rushers; the same guys that give AD trouble in games.
    I’m beginning to think that Stanley might be in play at #7 depending upon who’s sitting there. A trade back a couple of spots might still land Conklin if that’s the way they want to go.
    I’d like Kelly, the Alabama OC if he’s there in the second or in reach at the end of the 1st.

  19. Is a rift between Kelly and the front office already developing? We all know theYork’s like their money and keeping Kap on the roster may prevent drafting a QB high in the draft so they won’t have to pay two large salaries. -TomD


    According to Dianna Russini of ESPN.com, new 49ers coach Chip Kelly doesn’t even really want Kaepernick in San Francisco.

    It’s very possible that Kelly really likes one of the quarterbacks in the draft and he might have a hard time convincing the front office to take one if Kaepernick is still on the team. However, if the 49ers were to deal Kap to Denver, then Kelly could pounce on Jared Goff or Carson Wentz with the seventh overall pick

  20. Grant,
    I like your draft with two exceptions, I’m not sold on Lynch he reminds me of Kaep and I really do not like Henry he has no vision. The only way a RB with his size and speed slips to the 2nd rd is if he has a glaring weakness in another area.

    1. Thanks, OldCoach. I’m not a big fan of Henry, either, but I think Kelly and Baalke will go ga ga over him.

    2. Great defensive talent can be had at pick 37. I’ve been spending more time thinking about what to do at pick 37 than pick 7.
      – Rolling the dice on Spence at 37 works for me.
      – Trade 37+3rd or 37.4th into the 20-31 range for Billings, Lee, Chris Jones. Alot of good options.

      I’d like a running back later in the draft. Darius Jackson would fit Kelly’s scheme nicely.

      1. Brodie I think you and I agree on Billings,Love to have him and Kaufusi on our D.Later round RB to look at as well P .Barber.

        1. I like Kaufusi too. He was my pick at the top of round 3. Recent mocks have him in the 2nd. Like Bosa his 40 won’t blow anyone away, but he has great agility for a big guy. If I recall correctly his 3cone was very good.

  21. Denver you QB currently resides on the Rams and its not Foles. SF your QB resides in the 4th or later rounds. Kaep your not worth much or the world champions Denver would of snagged you without hesitation regardless of money.

    1. UC you are absolutely right. Ironic that Genius Jed is paying $14 mil. to a guy who is not worth much. Well, stupid is as stupid does.

    1. And Rang projected J.Ramsey to the Niners with Lynch still available. This is where the big board starts looking like a spinning roulette wheel…….

      1. Fantastic. Ramsey, then trade up to late first if Baalke likes Lynch.

    2. It’s QB inflation. Not sure why Lynch would be making a move up in mocks when nothing has changed in two months. Seriously what has changed about Paxton Lynch between the combine and now to warrant a move up from where he was even a week ago?

        1. I don’t agree but even if that was the case, it doesn’t answer the question: what has changed from the combine to now? It’s clearly artificial QB inflation on behalf of draftniks, or somebody has heard a rumor of teams interest. Either way, it’s not because of anything Lynch has done to change the narrative from where it was a short time ago.

          1. The only thing that has changed is the media’s perception, not teams’ perceptions.

  22. It is my opinion that SF should trade down out of 7 and get more talent. They are not competing for a super bowl in 2016 so fill the team with talent. I heard this echoed on NFL network in relation to the cowboys.
    It would be better to trade back and fill the roster with young good talent before inserting a QB.
    If SF addresses it’s OL problems and has an opportunity to replace the likes of Willis and Lynch, then they can go after a QB next season. In Sf’s position, you’re all in on Gabbert allowing Kaepernick to discuss a trade. He is checked out of then ockerroom. He will be an eventual distraction with one foot out the door. That being said it wouldn’t matter who was under center if the line cannot protect him. So if the organization is interested in rebuilding a championship team, they will spend 2016 filling the roster with talent instead of another gimmick QB.

    1. Matt ..

      While the optimism permeating these threads
      is admirable … re-signing Devey ..isn’t
      what I’d consider as .. the Niners ..
      “addressing their OL problems” ….

      He shoulda been shown the door, by now ..
      (along with the
      other two stooges) .. but ..
      yeah… help is definitely needed on the OL …
      (immediate help !) ..

      While I like the prospects of Wentz and Goff ..
      (I like the homeboy a little more) …

      I don’t think it necessary to draft a QB at #7 ..

      There’s just something … I dunno what it is…
      about Hogan .. that I like … and
      could be had later ..

      And I have been.. reluctant … (’till now)
      to admit that …

      (Probably, because it means ..
      that I’m agreeing with Grant)

      /*gasp !

        1. Yeah …Matt ..

          I’m sure you’ll recall how Grant was about Romo ..
          and lster .. David Fales …

          (Now why .. do the words .. “Ga-Ga” ..
          come to mind .. ?)

        2. When Hogan pulled off the Fumblefoolski in the Rose Bowl, he convinced me that he will do well no matter where he plays. Oh wait, I take that back. Maybe Cleveland will turn him into another Couch or Manziel.
          Hogan can be deceptive, which will win a lot more games than bludgeoning. He had nice touch on the ball when he threw over the LBs and in front of the safeties in the ND game that set up the winning FG. He can get the ball into the hands of his play makers, and he is a strong runner who can take the punishment, and has a 4 yard average. He is extremely smart, and I bet another Stanford Grad will take a long look at him in the draft. Even if Kaep goes to Denver, Elway might select Hogan to develop for the future.
          No matter what, the Niners should select a QB, and he will be available in the third or 4th rounds. If he and Cardale Jones are taken, they also should look at Adams, Brissett or Driskel.

  23. Although I like seeing my guy get some love I do wish it was from someone else.


    Dak is my value pick for the position. Skip going QB early, grab Prescott in the third or fourth and just be wiling to suffer through another mediocre Gabbert season while the kid gets up to speed. He’s a sharp dude, he’ll at least be as good as Gabbert if not better by his second season.

    1. “He is a big fan of Prescott, comparing him to Donovan McNabb coming out of Syracuse.”

      That sounds familiar ;)

        1. Driskel will be higher on the Niners’ board. He’s bigger and faster than Prescott. Better traits to develop.

          1. Chip will love Dak’s football smarts. He’ll(Kelly) feel comfortable that Dak will be able to quickly learn his system. Prescott makes smart decisions(on the field at least) and he’s accurate. He’s athletic enough to run when needed and survive NFl hits.

            1. Not necessary to quickly learn the system, since the rookie mid-round pick will sit for a year behind Gabbert. Driskel has a higher ceiling, and that’s what NFL teams look for in projects.

              1. No I think being able to quickly pick up the system even though he’s sitting for a year is still important. The sooner he has the fundamentals and the foundation of the system the sooner he can go out and play and not have to think about what he’s doing.

                There’s no QB in this class that I think should be starting in their first year.

                I just wish we had a better ‘veteran’ for him to learn behind.

  24. I just don’t see the Niners drafting a QB at one or two. They do not seem to be much at good at it. Look at the last two they have drafted using a 1st or a 2nd. Has not worked out well. Defense, defense and then whatever.

    1. When the Niners drafted a QB in the third, that worked out well. Maybe they should try to repeat history.

    1. Is it his ego or his agent’s cash flow? If Kaep takes less his agents most likely get a pretty severe haircut too. You would think that their contract with a player protects an agent when a player voluntarily takes huge pay cut.

  25. I think Kap will stay and the early round 49er draft choices will be as follows:

    Round 1: DeForest Buckner, DE, Oregon
    Round 2: Josh Garnett, G, Stanford
    Round 3: Charone Peake, WR, Clemson
    Round 4: Joe Haeg, T, North Dakota State
    Round 4. Nick Kwiatkoski, LB, West Virginia

    1. If Harold can put on 20 and remain quick it would be huge. As for now he’s on my “fighting for a job” list along with all other Niner OLBs not named Lynch.

  26. Jared Goff averaged only 2.3 rushing attempts per game in college. He is not a rushing threat. He’s a bad fit for the 49ers.

    Paxton Lynch averaged 6.1 rushing attempts per game in college. He is a good fit for the 49ers.

    1. The most important aspect of how Lynch can fit with the 49ers is Kelly’s offense keeps it pretty simple for the QB as far as most NFL offenses go. With his atleticism and arm, that makes him a pretty good fit. Probably one of the best team fits for him.

      1. Which is exactly how I feel about Kaepernick, too. Drafting Lynch would be a like for like replacement for Kaep, pretty much. And sure, Lynch is probably a more accurate passer, so in that regard he may be a better fit than Kaep.

        1. Lynch has much more in common with Newton than Kaepernick. Lynch is big like Newton. Both are accurate passers who have touch. Both are explosive athletes. Both had extremely productive junior seasons.

    2. Jared Goff averaged only 2.3 rushing attempts per game in college. He is not a rushing threat. He’s a bad fit for the 49ers.

      From Charley Casserly: “I think what Chip Kelly wants in a quarterback – and by the way, I’m sure he scouted this guy in college, so he already has an opinion on him – is No. 1, what I’ve been told is this, quick decision-making, and accuracy with the football. Quick-decision making, give (Goff) a triple-plus there. Ball comes out quick, good ability to go to the second receiver, exceptional vision downfield for a quarterback, as far as reading things.

      Another good article breaking down why Goff is a good fit for Kelly’s offense.


      Kelly isn’t looking for a run threat at QB. He’s looking for accuracy and quick decision making. It’s why he traded for Bradford who had played in a quick passing spread system but wasn’t mobile. The running aspect is gravy. What he really wants is a point guard.

      1. The running aspect is not gravy. It’s essential. When I asked Chip Kelly about the zone-read, he immediately referred to Russell Wilson and Cam Newton, both of whom run the ball at least 6 times per game.

        1. I don’t think you are representing that properly. Let’s refresh your memory:

          Do you believe the read-option can be an integral part of an NFL offense?

          CK: “Just so we can get going football-wise, the read-option has never been run in here. It’s a zone-read, first off. And I think when you have the right personnel you can. I know [Seattle Seahawks QB] Russell Wilson and [Carolina Panthers QB] Cam Newton are killing people with it right now. So, I think it’s applicable to who you have from a personnel standpoint.”

          It can be a part of the offense depending on the personnel. No mention or reference to a running threat at QB being essential to his offense. He can run it 3-5 times a game with any QB and did in Philly. What he truly needs are the other aspects I’ve already outlined.

          1. He referenced two QBs who run at least six times per game. Goff is not that quarterback. Running Goff that many times per game would be insane. He is not “the right personnel.”

            1. Well, that totally miss Rocket’s point, but I guess you know it.

              Goff is not the right personnel for the zone read, but nowhere in that response Kelly said that the zone read is essential for his offense, just for the zone read.

              The point basically is that you are saying Kelly’s offense = Zone read.
              And Rocket says: not necessarily.

              1. Grant – you are correct, the zone read combined with the spread is what makes this offense magical. Rocket is correct that the run game still continues to work but the magic is gone and the offense is not near as potent. My thoughts go back to Kelly’s Oregon days, and to see if this all works in the NFL is still to be determined.

              2. Sure, it continues to work, but it’s far less efficient. That hurts the play-action passing game.

            2. You asked a theoretical question Grant. He answered by saying yes it could be used if you have the right personnel. He did not say he needs a running QB or that his system depends on it. His actions since he entered the NFL should tell you clearly that he doesn’t feel he needs a running QB. The last two years in Philly featured more passing than running – 300 more pass attempts than running attempts – and he neither signed nor drafted a running QB during his time there.

              This is what I mean when I say you have placed too much emphasis on the mobility of the QB. It’s a nice thing to have, but it’s not required for Kelly to run his system. If they drafted Goff for example, he wouldn’t be running on designed plays, he would run if the DE bit hard and there was clear opening. Goff can do that and has at Cal. That is a very small part of the offense though. What is truly needed for success in Kelly’s system is quick decision making, getting the ball out of the QB’s hands and accuracy. Goff has all those traits which is why he would be a great fit in this system.

              1. The zone-read is the foundation of Kelly’s running game, which is the foundation of Kelly’s offense. The zone-read is an average play at best unless the defense has to worry about two potential runners at the mesh point. Goff isn’t enough of a runner to merit concern from the opposing defense.

              2. And yet Kelly fielded top 5 offenses his first two years without a running QB, and still put up a 12th ranked unit after he got rid of all of his best skill players and had a terrible Oline. I don’t know how else to get it across to you Grant. If Kelly isn’t using a running QB, has told people the most important aspect is decision making and accuracy, and his offense has been effective without a running QB in the NFL, then that should clearly show you how much emphasis he places on a running threat at the QB position. You’ve developed an opinion and are stubbornly refusing to move from it even in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

              3. The offense was only good Year 1. After that, yards per play and yards per rush dropped dramatically. The pace of the offense inflated it’s overall ranking. Not that hard to understand.

              4. The offense was only good Year 1. After that, yards per play and yards per rush dropped dramatically. The pace of the offense inflated it’s overall ranking. Not that hard to understand.

                Smh. Think about what you just said here Grant. You just claimed that the #5 overall offense wasn’t very good. Defenses had a year of film to come up with ways to play against it and yet it still finished 5th overall with a backup QB taking over half way through the season. The pace of the offense doesn’t make plays Grant. This is getting silly now.

              5. A .7 drop from a great 6.3 yards per play in 2013 to a slightly above average 5.6 yards per play in 2014. That’s a huge drop directly tied to the quarterback not being respected as a running threat.

              6. You also didn’t give a response to why Kelly hasn’t gone after a running QB to lead his offense in the NFL.

              7. Gentlemen-
                With 11 bodies on offense there are a lot of moving parts. To try to isolate just one aspect of an offense’s production numbers as THE cause of the cumulative difference seems overly simplistic. Variations in the play of the OL didn’t come into it? WRs not a factor?

              8. He went after Mariota pretty hard last year, you might have heard.

                Sure I heard the rumor like everybody else. Did he get him? Nope. Did he trade for a non mobile pocket QB? Yep.

              9. He had to give up a second round pick for Bradford. Not easy and actually a pretty steep price for a QB coming off of multiple knee surgeries. If he truly wanted a running QB, why would he trade for one who can’t run at all? He was the HC in Philly for 3 years. In that time his QB’s were not running QB’s and two of them were pocket statues. Just like above, you have no leg to stand on here. The evidence doesn’t back up your theory.

              10. Much, much easier than getting Mariota, who would have costed multiple No. 1s. No comparison.

              11. A .7 drop from a great 6.3 yards per play in 2013 to a slightly above average 5.6 yards per play in 2014. That’s a huge drop directly tied to the quarterback not being respected as a running threat.

                You keep saying that and yet have no evidence to support it. There are any number of reasons their yards per play could have dropped including the fact they lost their starting QB half way through the season. To continue to state things like this as if they are fact is disingenuous. You have a theory that you believe to be true and nothing else. It’s not supported in any way and the HC has not signed or drafted a running QB since he’s been in the NFL. Somehow you believe you know what he needs even if his actions don’t comply.

              12. The change in quarterback had zero effect on yards per play. The Eagles averaged 5.6 yards per play in Sanchez’s nine games.


              13. The change in quarterback had zero effect on yards per play. The Eagles averaged 5.6 yards per play in Sanchez’s nine games


                You are truly delusional. I said there are any number of reasons for that including losing their starting QB. Achieving the same yards per play with Butt fumble doesn’t help you. If anything it hurts your position considering Sanchez is more mobile than Foles. Under your theory, wouldn’t teams have respected Sanchez’s running ability more than Foles and thus woudn’t that have resulted in a better yards per play?

                You still haven’t shown how the lack of a running QB caused them to drop in yards per play from year one to year two.

              14. It’s over, Rocket. You should have done the math before you wrote that. You’re throwing things at the wall to see what sticks.

              15. Lol. You don’t even know what you are arguing anymore Grant. Let me refresh your memory:

                Grant: That’s a huge drop directly tied to the quarterback not being respected as a running threat.

                rocket: You keep saying that and yet have no evidence to support it.

                Still waiting Grant. Don’t try to deflect because you have no answer for the actual subject we are discussing.

              16. Every explanation you have presented for the gigantic drop in ypp has been disproven. Keep trying, though. The answer is the quarterback not being a rushing threat. It’s right in front of your face.

              17. The only rational explanation is the Eagles used the QB as a rushing threat much more Year 1 than Years 2 and 3. Every other explanation you have presented has been poorly-researched and wrong. You absolutely cannot account for the .7 drop in ypp and .9 drop in ypc from Year 1 to Year 2. Doing so would blow up your entire argument, so you skirt the issue.

              18. The only rational explanation is the Eagles used the QB as a rushing threat much more Year 1 than Years 2 and 3.

                No that’s your explanation because you devised a theory and are stuck in confirmation bias. There are a number of possible explanations: Defenses had an offseason to study the offense, The Eagles offense put up three 500+ yard games in 2013, but only 1 in 2014, they evolved into more of a passing offense during the season, they didn’t have DeSean Jackson, they turned it over a lot more which could have put them in poor offensive situations in games. There are any number of factors that could lead to it. Deciding it is all due to not having a running threat at QB when they didn’t have one most of the previous year is myopic. It’s never that black and white in the NFL. There are always many factors that affect performance.

                Every other explanation you have presented has been poorly-researched and wrong.

                I hadn’t given an explanation on this until now. You jumped on a comment that I made above about it being any number of things including the QB change, and then thought you won a cookie because the number was the same. You’ve had a really tough time keeping the subjects straight. You still haven’t come up with an explanation as to why Kelly hasn’t gone after a running QB during his time in the NFL if it so crucial to his system’s success.

                You absolutely cannot account for the .7 drop in ypp and .9 drop in ypc from Year 1 to Year 2. Doing so would blow up your entire argument, so you skirt the issue.

                I haven’t skirted the issue at all. I dealt with this in the other thread above. You made a statement that the running game was average at best with a non running threat at QB and I proved that was wrong by showing how high the ypc was the majority of the time with non running QB’s. You want to make it a blanket statement relying solely on the YPC percentage, but that totally overlooks what transpired in each individual game. The majority of the time the running game was excellent without the benefit of the running threat at QB. I also destroyed your argument that Fangio provided a blue print for the league.

                This is just going in circles now, rehashing the same stuff that has already been talked about.

              19. It doesn’t matter if the running game was excellent some of the time if it also was awful some of the time and averaged out to the league average. You’ll get it eventually. Sleep on it.

              20. Grant,

                I think that you should consider whether, independent of number of plays run, the average yards per play is a statistic representative of success.

                I suspect that Chip has researched offenses a little more than anyone on here, and when he says he runs a lot of plays in order to find more of the explosive plays that count, I tend to believe him.

                In the last 3 years, the 49ers most explosive plays have come on the legs of Kap. I do not dispute at all your contention that a running QB is an integral part of this offense, but I don’t think Kelly cares nearly as much about YPP as number of plays run.

              21. Rocket

                Almost everyone who follows the NFL believes that Chip’s offense is tailor-made for Marcus Mariota, and not because of his “repetitive accuracy.”

                It’s not a “theory.” It’s so much the prevailing belief that it’s almost assuredly true. If you want to know who Chip prefers, look at the QBs he recruited and coached while at Oregon, where he had carte blanche.

              22. Grant

                If you’re going to ask that question of him, be aware that he may declare that he puts much more value on the first 1, 2, or 3 plays in a drive than the subsequent ones. That is, if he can get the first 1st down, then he believes his offense, due to its pace of play, will have the upper hand by dictating personnel advantages for that drive. That is his goal. Find a mismatch and then explode and score. That’s why his defense in 2015 spent a whole 32 seconds more per game on the field than defensive mastermind Jim Tomsula’s 2015 49ers.

              23. Almost everyone who follows the NFL believes that Chip’s offense is tailor-made for Marcus Mariota, and not because of his “repetitive accuracy.”

                It’s not a “theory.” It’s so much the prevailing belief that it’s almost assuredly true. If you want to know who Chip prefers, look at the QBs he recruited and coached while at Oregon, where he had carte blanche.

                I enjoy the back and forth with Grant, but it almost always veers off in multiple directions that lose track of what the original discussion was about. I never said Mariota wasn’t a good fit for the offense, of course he is, but that isn’t what the discussion was about.

                This particular thread of the discussion began when I said this:

                Kelly isn’t looking for a run threat at QB. He’s looking for accuracy and quick decision making. It’s why he traded for Bradford who had played in a quick passing spread system but wasn’t mobile. The running aspect is gravy. What he really wants is a point guard.

                I backed this point up with two different references that made the same point. Grant came back with this:

                The running aspect is not gravy. It’s essential. When I asked Chip Kelly about the zone-read, he immediately referred to Russell Wilson and Cam Newton, both of whom run the ball at least 6 times per game.

                The running aspect being essential is the point of contention. Grant thinks it’s essential and I point to the fact Kelly hasn’t had a running QB since he benched Vick in his first season with the Eagles. Kelly had carte blanche as you put it last year and he traded for Bradford. If the running aspect was essential he would not have traded for Bradford or gone with Foles as long as he did. It’s an added bonus and yes Mariota would be great, but what Kelly wants first and foremost is quick decision making and accuracy. All this other nonsense is what the discussion devolved into when Grant started moving away from the original discussion.

                The bottom line is Kelly has not acted like a man who believes running is essential to who he picks as his QB in the NFL. He had one of the best running QB’s in the league and benched him for a guy who runs like he’s trying not to drop something wedged between his butt cheeks. You can see clearly that Kelly started to become more pass oriented to combat defenses keying on the running game. That is what you need to be able to do in the NFL and he realized that. That is why he puts more value on the brain and accuracy than he does on the legs.

    3. Grant,

      Do you get that sacks and yards lost because of sacks are included in a QB’s rushing stats? Surely, you can see that this fact would substantially depress the rushing average of college QB’s, especially ones that don’t run very much.

      Since I’m certain you’re aware of this, why did you give a rushing average of 2.3 yards per carry for Goff? It’s intentionally misleading. This persistent characteristic loses you credibility and makes you look a little bit like a liar.

      It seems you missed your true calling: used car sales. Hey, you’re still young, there’s time to correct the wrong that is you attempting journalism.

      1. Grant,

        Assuming that Goff was in the game for 90% of sacks and yards lost due to those sacks, and deducting those rushing attempts and yards lost resulting from those sacks, his career rushing average is actually 4.9 yards per carry.

        Last year his rushing average on actual rushes was 6.0 yards per carry.

        1. But he only rushed 2.3 times per game. He wouldn’t rush more than that in the pros, otherwise he’d probably get hurt. The Niners need a QB who is a threat to run the ball more than two times a game. Even Alex Smith runs the ball 5 times per game.

        1. Grant,

          You’re right, that was a failure of reading comprehension on my part. I apologize for my comments, in this case.

            1. I think Goff has the characteristic that Kelly most covets: “repetitive accuracy”.

              I don’t know what Goff will do if he runs more often, but when he’s had to run, he’s done so at least somewhat effectively.

              All the QB has to do in the zone read is to occupy the attention of one defender. He doesn’t have to run very often to do that and I do think that’s something Goff will be able to accomplish in the NFL, at least to a reasonable degree.

              As for Goff being too frail to take hits in the NFL, we won’t know that until he takes hits in the NFL. There have been college players that look like brick s— houses and are crystal, others look like they’ll be snapped like twigs and are able to take a fair amount of punishment.

              Besides that, he should pack on some weight as his body matures. If memory serves, Aaron Rodgers wasn’t an imposing physical specimen when he was coming out of Cal (still isn’t, for that matter).

              I do agree that a QB who is able to run would enhance Kelly’s offense (as it would any offense), but also agree with Rocket that it doesn’t seem to be a requirement for Kelly.

    1. Soap opera ? …

      MidWest .. the soap opera began when the leaks
      about The Harbs …first came out of the FO..!

      Jedster and his “mini-me” .. (Baalke) .. are
      the real .. soap opera !

      1. Nah. Jed and Baalke are what is commonly termed as a tragedy MWN.

    2. Not one person in the Org wants him …….not one player is out talking positively about him…….that tells you alot about the kind of person he is……

      1. There’s at least one player. Tells me you’ve made up your mind without facts.


        “I’m just a big fan of both of those guys [Colin Kaepernick and Blaine Gabbert] and hoping that they are both back with us. Fantastic football players, so what they can bring to our team is going to be big for us. He’s a great leader in the locker room and I just hope he’s around for as long as I’m there for sure.”

        Bruce Miller

  27. If #7 sits on the bench the whole season, and gets cuts next offseason before April 1, 2017…..no way he gets a contract for $10M next season…..see RGIII

    49ers have the leverage……let him sit on the bench and watch him implode…

    1. Al Davis did that with a future Hall of Fame running back. It gave Al dementia.

  28. Kawakami lays out the stalemate pretty well, and advises everybody to pack a lunch; it may not be resolved for a while. Here’s the thing: Denver is the only team currently talking to SF, but they’re shopping for something they can’t afford, and they’re insisting that the price go down. Great strategy, like encouraging PM to retire or walk, offering $18M to BO who turned it down and bolted, then whining that they only have $2M in cap space. How were they going to BO? They don’t wan to pay CK starter’s money, but they already have a clipboard QB in Sanchez but they’re still shopping in Whole Foods looking for Grocery Outlet bargains.
    It’s ironic that Elway, the Former Franchise Golden Boy Super QB got his team (as GM) to one SB with PM lighting things up on offense like a pinball machine only to be humiliated by a team with a great defense (and a good QB), but then wins one with a great defense and a wounded goose at the helm. He also advanced in the PO one year with Tebow, so I get why he thinks he can again. It still seems like a funny gamble in the Era of the QB. Good luck with that John.
    The Niners (and all of us) should just chill. Elway offered chump change to Trent and to Colin; they’re probably saying “Call back when you’re serious and have something new.” The current depth behind Gabbert isn’t sufficient for the Niners if Blaine goes down, so having CK backing up this year if he can’t beat out Blaine wouldn’t be that terrible, because any rook drafted for the future isn’t going to be ready in 2016. Then if some team is desperate due to injuries before the deadline….

  29. Kawakami described Den., SF, and Kap’s current contract stalemate below. However, Kap’s team knows the 49ers could cut him next April. The real problem seems to be an overinflated opinion of themselves by Kap’s agents, who appear to be willing to wait for that April, 2017 date.

    Kaepernick’s future base salaries (not including bonuses), per this deal:

    -2017 ….. $14.5M.
    -2018 ….. $15M.

    -2019 ….. $16.8M.
    -2020 …. $19M.

    Denver wants a 50% cut in each of these seasons.

    Kaepernick’s camp is balking at Denver’s desire to re-do his deal through 2020 because it doesn’t want him to lose the chance at larger salaries into the future.

    If all else fails it’s expected the 49ers would release him before next April 1 and he’d hit the market as a 29-year-old free-agent QB.


    1. How about if Kap thrives in Kelly’s system and the Niners make the playoffs this year. What will happen then?

  30. Denver is being patient, and holds all the cards. All they have to do is wait until after the draft, then they will not have 2016 draft picks to give as compensation. The only picks they will have will be 2017 picks.
    They have little cap space, but cutting Clady will free up 8.9 mil, and cutting Sanchez will free up 4.5 mil. They offered BO 16 mil, so they had money to sign him, but are just holding back to show that they have little cap room so they can squeeze the Niners. If they could offer BO 16 mil, 14 mil for Kaep should be very doable. Sanchez is a good negotiating ploy because they can say that they have a playoff QB who has started many games. Too bad the Bronco players cannot talk about Sanchez with a straight face, so even they know that once Kaep is traded, Sanchez will be cut to give them cap space.
    It is very telling to see the silence coming from the Niners. If everything was hunky dory, they would be parading Kaep with Chip, and each would be slapping each other on the back while singing Kumbaya. The silence is speaking volumes, just like Kaep’s surgeries away from the Niner doctors, and his rehabbing in Vail.
    The Niners played this all wrong. If they wanted to get the best compensation, they should have promised Kaep his job back that he lost due to injury. Chip should have been extolling Kaep’s virtues in his initial presser instead of mentioning Gabbert every time he was asked about Kaep. Leaking the smears just labeled Kaep as a quitter who did not study and lost the locker room, which may have made the FO feel good, but destroyed his trade value. Sending the leaker to demand Kaep take a pay cut was the straw that broke the camel’s back and it was no surprise to hear his reps ask for permission to talk to other teams about a trade, minutes after the meeting. In the end, that negotiation backfired spectacularly and Kaep is getting his full salary.
    So now, instead of trying to trade their starting franchise QB, the Niners are trying to get something instead of nothing for a benched, second string QB who did not study, quit on the team and is a locker room cancer.
    Many Niner posters are saying that the FO has leverage, but when Kaep is invited to John Elway’s home, it is just trumpeting the notion that Denver likes, wants and appreciates Kaep. Elway wants another ring, and Kaep is his best option. He just wants to pay as little as possible for him.
    No matter when Kaep leaves, he is long gone already, and the Niners should just cut their losses, accept a third round pick and let him go. Keeping a disgruntled QB on the bench just out of spite is the Niner MO, but in the end, they will destroy any incentive for any FA to ever want to come here. They should cut their losses. trade him away and move on before they look even more ridiculous.

    1. Denver, by offering a 2 year 14 mil contract, Is just posturing. They will offer him an incentive laden contract, so if they make it back to the SB, he will be adequately compensated. Kaep wants to get out of that contract, burn it and scatter the ashes.
      They might make Kaep a promise that if he works out, they will renegotiate a new contract before the end of the season, like what the Raiders did with Crabtree.

      1. Seb I just cannot figure you out. If you are a 49er fan and you are also a Kap fan you should be hoping that things work out between the two CKs. I don’t know why you are so eager to see CK7 in a Denver uni.

        I firmly believe that the 49ers best chance of winning over the next few years is to get CK7 to buy into coach CK’s system. Gabbert is a joke and only those posters here who are blinded by their hatred of CK7 think we can win with him. Drafting a rookie QB is another crapshoot. Judging by recent NFL history colleges are not preparing QBs to succeed in the NFL and a rookie QB will take three or four years to work out if at all. Remember how everyone thought Gabbert was a sure fire success when Jacksonville drafted him in the first round.

        As a 49er fan I don’t want Kap to be traded to the Broncos. It probably will be better for Kap to move to Denver, but I am selfish. I want what is good for the Niners.

        1. Rick, he’s a confused person. I suggest you don’t try to figure him out because, if you try to walk through his twisted logic, you will tie your brain up into knots. He’s been upside down and backwards about this saga for months. Don’t confuse his speculation for fact. He’s been making things up as he goes along.

          1. Actually that’s not entirely correct. There was a financial analysis of the major options open to Colin earlier in this thread that wound up concluding that Colin’s current approach will net him more income in every scenario except the one were he becomes an All Pro all of a sudden.

            You seem to think that Colin is incapable of staying the course under his current contract rather than accept a long term contract as a backup. I think that he will fulfill his contract unless Denver makes a better offer that both the 49ers and Colin accept. I also expect that Colin will do his best as long as he is under contract with the 49ers or anyone else.

    2. Seb,

      I can agree with the 49ers destroying Kap’s trade value through last years leaks and Kelly not extolling Kap’s greatness by offering his job back—but it’s the 49er front office, not Bill Walsh here.

      What’s the most bewildering thing about how the 49ers are functioning — or, dysfunctioning, a made-up word that works in this case — is that they’re acting as if there is absolutely no urgency to impress the fans who spent tens of thousands on “Stadium Builders Licenses” and season tickets to attend a stadium that has provided value for just about everyone except 49ers fans.
      Say they get a second-rounder from Denver. That would equal the biggest achievement of the offseason, just ahead of signing Zane Beadles and saving a ton of money on Ian Williams’ contract because he’s injured. (Talk about Trent Baalke’s dream scenario: an injury-prone player costs way less than expected because he probably won’t be ready for Week 1 and may not play at all in 2016.)
      If you’re a Taylor Swift fan, Levi’s Stadium worked just fine. If WWE fans had any complaints during Wrestlemania, they weren’t very loud. Other than the grass looking like a Slip-And-Slide at times
      New stadiums don’t guarantee success in the NFL, but they often seem to usher in better eras. The Seahawks made the playoffs once in the previous 13 seasons before their new stadium opened in 2002, and their lone playoff appearance resulted in a Wild Card round loss. They’ve made the playoffs in 10 out of 14 years since their stadium opened. The Cardinals suffered through 10 losing seasons in the previous 11 years before their stadium opened. They’ve only had three losing seasons in the 10 years since.

    3. Seb,
      Denver’s 2017 picks may very well be much more valuable Then their 2016 picks. With a little less luck and a few more injuries #32 in each round could easily turn into #15 to #20 in each round. I don’t believe it is to Denver’s advantage to wait until after the draft in fact I believe it would be very smart for the 49ers front office to wait until after the draft.

      1. Makes sense to me. But Denver has to make a better offer to Colin. They can’t try to get him through 2020 for backup pay.

        1. HT,

          I’ve been thinking that 4/18 is a third “pressure point” for a while now. The Broncos don’t really need to get CK on board until then, so why wouldn’t they hold firm? We’ll see who blinks, if anyone.

      2. Sorry Coach, but a 2016 draft pick is inherently more valuable than a 2017 pick. I do concede that a 20 pick is better than a 32 pick, but if you have to wait a year, it will not help this season.
        I think the Niners should ask for a third round pick, and a conditional 5th round pick next year. Then if Kaep leads them back to the SB, It upgrades to a first round pick. That would give the Niners insurance in case Kaep rejuvenates his career.

    4. Seb

      “Too bad the Bronco players cannot talk about Sanchez with a straight face.”

      Is anything you think ever based on anything other than your own distorted reality. Yes, he is Mr. ButtFumble, er, hee hee, hold on a minute …

      As I was saying, hadn’t you heard that The Sanchise is currently holding Camp Mark for his new Donkey receivers?

      1. Sanchez will be forever known as Mr. Buttfumble. He did lead the Jets in the playoffs, but his shortcomings are all too apparent.
        Sanchez is a bargaining chip. They can say that they have a playoff QB that started many games, so they are not desperate to get a QB. However, once Kaep is on board, they will drop Sanchez because they want to save 4.5 mil. in cap space.

    1. This is exactly why I don’t think Henry is going to be special at the NFL level. He is going to be a guy that gets you the 3 yards but is rarely going to break the big play. Every one of the clips in this article shows him running through a gaping hole and not getting touched until he has built up a head of steam 5-7 yards down the field. That is not happening at the NFL level very often. He’s also somebody who loses his effectiveness the minute he has to run east and west. I’m not going to predict him to be a bust or anything, but he’s not somebody I would take until late on day two or on day 3.

  31. Pretty easy to see why Kap hasn’t been traded to Denver yet. They want him to play the next two years for what he can make in this season alone. Nobody would agree to terms like that and they shouldn’t. The only way this gets done imo is if Denver either ups the offer or agrees to a one year prove it deal in which case Kap can become a FA and capitalize if he plays well for them.

    1. Why don’t the Niners eat the 4.9 million and demand Denvers 1st, or their 2nd and 3rd in either this year or next years draft?
      Come on Mr. Elway, crap or get off the toilet!

      1. Denver won’t give up those picks Prime. They want Kap for a bargain price both in draft compensation and contract. They may budge a little in the next month, but I can’t see them changing their minds on the draft pick they are willing to give up.

        As to the 49ers not eating the 4.9 mill, my guess is they don’t feel the draft pick offered his worth doing that for, and also fear that Kap could play well in Denver which in turn would make them look bad for not only giving him to Denver, but also paying a chunk of his salary.

        Just a guess here, but I think a large part of Jed and Baalke’s hesitation in parting with Kap is the fear he goes somewhere else and recaptures some of his early form.

        1. 49reasons thinks Colin is unstable. I, and it seems you, think that Baalke and Jed may be working with a chair with one short leg.

          1. There is no doubt that Kap isn’t playing with a full deck. He is surly, defensive, and aloof to a fault. It’s his personality. He trusts nobody but Harbaugh.

            That is actually his biggest flaw, that his mentor was Harbaugh. Lowell planted the seed years ago that Kap had changed, squeezed by Harbaugh’s firm grip of paranoia. And while Lowell would go on to change his opinion of Harbaugh, to eventually even come to enjoy him, the same cannot be said for the player. And Lowell is right. Kap took what Harbaugh was feeding him, but never knew how to moderate the levels of his standoffishness, and is now rudderless.

            Kap is a man, now. He needs to grow up. His wisest move would be to fire his agents and hire Leigh Steinberg.

  32. Mock Draft for mocking. This assumes the Kaepernick trade does not go through, and we are stuck with him another year, and Anthony Davis gets reinstated and stays with the Niners to fight for the RT starting spot with Trent Brown. I also tried to fit pieces that would work in Chip Kelly’s offensive style

    1/7: Jared Goff, QB Cal
    2/37: Joshua Garnett, G Stanford
    3/68: Bronson Kaufusi, DE BYU
    4/105: Nick Kwiatkoski, ILB W. Virginia (able to handle coverage given his 7 interceptions, not as developed against the run)
    4/133: Harlan Miller, CB SE Louisiana
    5/142: Devontae Booker, RB Utah (pass catcher out of the backfield, smaller back to complement Hyde as a bigger back)
    5/145: Victor Ochi, OLB Stony Brook (pass rushing demon, small school)
    5/174: Marquez North, WR Tennessee
    6/178: DJ Foster, RB/WR Arizona St. (our own Darren Sproles; can play slot, can be a running back, can return punts and kicks)
    6/207: Rees Odhiambo, G Boise St.
    6/211: Deon King, OLB Norfolk St. (may be converted to safety)
    6/213: Paul McRoberts, WR SE Missouri St.

    1. I doubt the team would take Goff with the seventh pick.

      1. I haven’t heard a lot of movement about Kwiatkoski. Realistically, I would want the Kap trade to go through (I think the Niners should use some of that $50 million to pay the $4.9 million difference this year; the Broncos can worry about next year), and we use the last 3rd round pick Kwiatkoski.

    2. Pot…Kettle, I really like you’re top 3.

      A watched kettle seldom boils, but it makes a nice mock.

    3. I like your Garnet and Kaufusi picks, but would like to see Buckner instead of Goff.

  33. Bowman has Twitted that there will be a special announcement at 6pm anybody know or heard of anything?

    1. Don’t know but it looks like fans were concerned that he is planning to retire. Response from NB is to calm down and relax.

  34. Memphis QB, PAXTON LYNCH shows off his arm in windy conditions, during Memphis pro day on Wednsday, drawing rave reviews from NFL.COM analysts and scouts alike.

    Twitter – NFL@NFL: 24 mph wind gusts?@PaxtonLynch’s arm strength is laughing at that at his pro day..

    Mayock: “Lynch would be in conversation for one of the five strongest arms in NFL.”

    Jeremiah: “This is a really good pro day. The pure arm strength, it’s way up there.”


    1. Now the question is whether he did it the right way or the Seadderal way.

    1. Nothing but fluff coming from a player that has yet to play a game in the system.

      1. Got to start somewhere Mid. If the players do not support this then Kelly needs to go as it won’t work.

        1. True. However, that doesn’t change the fact that it’s nothing but fluff. We’ll know more about how the players respond when the second half of the season is winding down.

          1. Fair enough. I am not sure if anyone does it like Kelly, so ya I am looking for the buy in, fluff or fluffy, eh don’t matter.

          2. JYTDAKAMWD,

            It can be called, and actually you be, whatever you say. That notwithstanding, it’s far better than the alternative.

      2. Are you saying that Kelly has his own defensive system to go with his offense? Does he also have his own special teams system?

        Anyway when does a player come out with negative comments about his coach? Let alone negative comments about a new coach two weeks before the coach can work on the field with his new team?

        1. Are you saying that Kelly has his own defensive system to go with his offense? Does he also have his own special teams system?

          Of course not, but he is the one who chose O’Neil as his DC, and it’s no secret that O’Neils’ run defenses in Cleveland left little to be desired. I’m interested in knowing what Bowman will be saying after another year of poor run defense and potentially getting gassed. Anything he says before that is fluff.

          Anyway when does a player come out with negative comments about his coach? Let alone negative comments about a new coach two weeks before the coach can work on the field with his new team?

          There are hardly any players that do that unless they are wanting to be traded; that’s why I said Bowman’s comments are nothing but fluff.

          1. “…left little to be desired”? Or did you mean, “…left much to be desired”? Sounds like the latter…

            1. The latter. I need to start looking at what my auto correct “corrects” more often.

  35. So sounds like Lynch ‘wowed’ at his pro day, throwing scripted passes against air (though admittedly that air was out in force from all reports!). Now will come the hyperbole about him possibly being the best QB in the draft, top 10 pick, yada yada yada.

    1. He is the most physically-gifted quarterback in the draft. Won’t be the top QB on a lot of teams’ boards because he played in a shotgun spread offense and needs to learn how to operate from undercenter and see the whole field, but that’s less of an issue on a team like the Niners.

      1. He also reportedly needs to learn how to be more mature. We already enough players with questionable maturity on and soon-to-be – on the 49ers roster.

    2. Lynch, Jones, and Cook are vying for the same prize – the 2016 MOQP.

          1. Mid,
            I’ve yet to see anything about Lynch that indicates he is abnormally immature. Other than the usual stuff that comes with college life there is nothing that stands out in his character (for a young man) that gives me pause.

            Is he very confident in his abilities? Yes. But except for a few poor games over his college career and a horrible bowl game he has been more than exceptional, and his pro day today only showed me what I already knew; the guy can throw the ball anywhere on the field.

            Not sure I would take him at #7, but I wouldn’t be too upset if the 49ers did. Paxton has a high ceiling and like his so called immaturity, he has room to get better.

            1. Check out shoupbj’s post on April 4th at 10:20 P.M.
              And I never said he was abnormally immature.

              1. Mid,
                I read Shoupbj’s post and there may be some truth to the alleged “sources” that say Coach Fuentes made those comments regarding Lynch. But I always have a certain amount of skepticism when I see the word “sources” in an expose.

                Here are some comments that Coach Fuentes actually made regarding Lynch:
                “We do some things with him that you would normally see done with a 6′ 1″ guy in college, like running the read option and the speed zone,” Fuente says. “We do some of those things with him, because …” The coach pauses. “Because he’s really good at it.”

                Maybe the truth is somewhere in the middle, but even if Fuentes did in fact say that PL needs development in many areas of his game, we have all pretty much agreed that Wentz and Goff would not be day one starters so that puts Lynch closer to their category then many may not want to admit.

                Like I said earlier, I’m not a huge PL fan, but I do see a QB that has just as much potential as Wentz and Goff to be a viable QB in the league a year or two down the road. We know he can make all the throws, we know he has the size and athleticism, and his ceiling is high – I’d be interested to see what he can do with some development.

  36. Kelly’s NFL quarterbacks have a history of getting hurt. He seems to value quarterbacks who are big enough to take a pounding. Look at the QBs he acquired in Philly:

    Matt Barkley: 227 pounds.
    Mark Sanchez: 225 pounds.
    Sam Bradford: 224 pounds.

    224 pounds seems to be the lower limit.

  37. 2013: Eagles quarterbacks average 4.7 rushes per game. Offense averages 6.3 yards per play and 5.1 yards per rush.

    2014: Eagles quarterbacks average 2.9 rushes per game. Offense averages 5.6 yards per pay and 4.2 yards per rush.

    2015: Eagles quarterbacks average 2.0 rushes per game. Offense averages 5.3 yards per play and 3.9 yards per rush.

    The efficiency of Kelly’s offense is directly connected to how much the quarterback runs.

    Case closed.

    1. If we go based on your logic instead of the facts, then Tim Tebow was the perfect fit for Kelly’s offense and should have been the starter over Bradford and the others last season.

      1. I’m saying Kelly needs a QB who can run and throw, not just one or the other. Tebow can do neither.

        1. Kelly needs a QB who has good ball placement and accuracy. Lynch has neither of those ideal skills.

              1. Seb,
                I tend to agree that Goff throws a better pass than Lynch. But I think we can both agree that whoever the QB is behind center in 2016, he will likely take some pretty good hits behind an OL still under construction.

                With that in mind, I just feel a little better having a 245 lb QB over a 210 lb QB taking hits early in their careers. Hey, I would be fine with Goff, don’t get me wrong. But in this offense our QB better be able to take some serious hits and still get off the grass and make plays. For me, this is where I feel PL has the edge over Goff.

              2. AES, I concede that Goff needs to bulk up and get stronger. I pray that Kaep stays and he Niners do not need to draft Goff. However, if they are looking to the future, Goff, with the Aaron Rodgers treatment may pay dividends, but if he goes the Alex Smith route, he may be chewed up and spit out.

              3. Sorry, but that doesn’t even come close to proving your point.

              4. AES,

                Any QB can get hurt. It doesn’t matter how big are strong the player is if he gets hit and falls on his shoulder with 300 lb’s on him. What you need to succeed in the pocket in the NFL is awareness and the ability to move and avoid pressure within the pocket. There isn’t a better prospect in the draft at doing this than Goff. The weight issue has gone over the top and it doesn’t fly when you consider the fact there are QB’s in the NFL now the same size or smaller than Goff is. It also doesn’t take into account he’s 21 years old and will put on weight naturally when he gets into an NFL nutrition and weight training program.

              5. If you draft a 215-pound quarterback in Round 1 and ask him to run the zone-read and he gets hurt, you look like an idiot.

              6. If you draft a 215-pound quarterback in Round 1 and ask him to run the zone-read and he gets hurt, you look like an idiot.

                I don’t think he would have any intention of using Goff that way other than the odd chance a DE bites hard and things open up for him. If Kelly drafts a 215 LB QB who isn’t much of a runner then that will tell us what he truly values in a QB.

              7. Which brings us back to the shotgun zone-give running game, which the best defenses absolutely shut down.

              8. Which brings us back to the shotgun zone-give running game, which the best defenses absolutely shut down

                Sure but Kelly’s offense didn’t remain static in Philly, it evolved and incorporated more passing in year two. With Goff I think you will see things continue to evolve and even more focus put on the passing game.

              9. It’s not a drop-back passing offense. It’s play-action offense. The efficiency of the running game is paramount.

              10. This whole Chip Kelly run game sounds nice, but with all the rule changes, the passing game is more emphasized. Kaep is big enough to take the hits, and fast enough to elude defensive linemen. Kaep should roll out more and run the zone read option.
                Chip needs to make the passing game more like Walsh and the WCO. The short passes are used to move the sticks and keep drives alive.
                I guess balance is the key, so both the run or pass will keep the defense guessing and on their heels.

              11. It’s not a drop-back passing offense. It’s play-action offense. The efficiency of the running game is paramount.

                They can run play action with Goff just as they did with Foles and Bradford before him. If teams don’t account for Goff as a runner he’ll change that line of thinking quickly. He’s not wearing cement shoes. He will pick up yards if teams completely sell out to stop the RB on the fake.

              12. Any QB could get hurt running that play which is why I don’t believe Kelly is interested in running his QB very often anymore. If teams key on the run fake, most QB’s can pick up positive gains and slide. You do this a few times and they stop keying on the RB only. You can also run bootlegs to take advantage of it as well.

              13. Any QB could get hurt running that play

                Which is why you don’t spend a first-round pick on a QB and ask him to run the zone-read unless he’s built to take a beating like Cam Newton or Paxton Lynch.

            1. No he doesn’t. Those are two of the critiques on his game.

              1. Yes he absolutely does. He’s extremely accurate on short and deep throws, and certainly more accurate than Wentz.

              2. Last season, Lynch completed 66 percent of his passes overall and 48 percent of his passes more than 20 yards downfield.

                Wentz completed 62 percent of his passes overall and 37 percent of his passes more than 20 yards downfield.

      2. Tebow’s weaknesses were quite evident, but in the last 5 minutes, he did play well. In the playoffs, he did win a game, but the other 55 minutes he did not show competence. It is interesting to see how a 2X collegiate Champ could not make the transition to the pro game.
        Tebow could run, but his passing skills would not be up to Chip Kelly’s standards.

    2. You are viewing this like a video game or stat league. You are oversimplifying this to the extreme and ignoring the evidence to the contrary.

      1. No, I’m viewing 100 percent of the data. You’re viewing only 75 percent.

    3. The Hogan would be preferable to Lynch because he ran well for a 4 yard per carry average.Lynch had non elite competition.

      1. Hogan is fantastic, but his ceiling isn’t as high as Lynch’s. Lynch is two years younger.

        1. Hogan actually averaged 6.6 yards per carry in college when you account for sacks. Amazing. Lynch averaged 4.8. He also scored 13 rushing TDs in 2014. A unique element to his game.

      2. Seb,
        PL beat a pretty good Ole Miss team at was up 14-0 early in the game. Lynch put the team on his back and came back to win 37-24.

          1. Hogan also played on a much better team than Lynch did, to be fair. Many NFL players on Stanford’s offense.

          2. Seb,
            Not refuting that Hogan played against stronger competition but it helps to have a Heisman candidate in the backfield a good OL and a possible 2-3rd rd pick TE on the team. As a pure passer, I would even give the nod to Goff because he used many of his receivers on the way to putting up his numbers. Lynch did so as well.

            Hogan is definitely an under the radar type player but as an individual talent and high ceiling, I would go with Paxton Lynch.

            1. At the Combine, Lynch was examined and they found Knee issues. That would worry me, but may make him a lock for Baalke. ;p

        1. Memphis lost to Navy who got blown up by Cal in a Bowl game, They lost to Houston and Temple, and was embarrassed by Auburn.
          Sorry, AES, but the differences in levels of competition is striking.

          1. Seb,
            Sometimes scouts will look beyond the level of competition and see the pure minutiae of the player as is the case with Wentz who played in a much lower level of competition as did Lynch.

            Scouts are paid to do their due diligence and offer many scenarios and variables when selecting a team. But in the end pure individual talent will be the greatest factor.
            Hogan has talent, I happen to think Paxton has much more.

            1. AES, I pray that Kaep stays and the Niners do not need to draft a QB until the 3rd or 4th round. Goff, Wentz, Lynch and Cook should be gone by then.
              Maybe the best option is for the Niners to trade Gabbert to the Broncos. He has similar skills to Kaep, and would be a big upgrade from Sanchez. He also would easily fit under their salary cap. Niners should trade Gabbert for their third round pick and Clady. Then they could use that 3rd round pick to select Cardale Jones or Hogan.

  38. Even though I think that Kaep is gone, and his leaving has nothing to do with Chip Kelly, I must admit that Kaep would be the perfect QB for his system. Kaep is big enough, fast enough, strong enough and smart enough to run Chip’s system because he ran the pistol in college. The pistol required quick in game decisions and adjustments, and Kaep’s mobility allowed him to buy time until he found his receiver. The reason why he fits so well is because once he gets into open space, Kaep is able to score by out running the safeties. Just his threat to run will make the passing game more potent.
    Accuracy can be a challenge to Kaep, but within the Chip Kelly system he is not being asked to throw receivers open, but rather he is just focusing on the one on one matchups, which are way easier to make completions on. Once he gets more comfortable with the system, his main job will be to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers.
    Of course, Kubiak will be able to do the same thing with Kaep, and the Bronco receivers and RBs are pretty skilled since they just won a SB.

  39. Even if Kaepernick emerges as the temporary starting quarterback, he still would be a distraction. The players will have to answer how Kaepernick is “responding to the situation” daily.

    As long as Kaepernick is in Santa Clara, his saga overshadows the rest of the team. Can’t have that.

  40. Player comparisons:

    Jared Goff = Eli Manning Andy Dalton
    Carson Wentz = rich man’s Alex Smith Jason Campbell
    Paxton Lynch = poor man’s Cam Newton
    Kevin Hogan = Ryan Tannehill
    Dak Prescott = Drew Stanton
    Connor Cook = Josh McCown

    1. Jared Goff = Andy Dalton
      Carson Wentz = early years Ben Roethlisberger
      Paxton Lynch = Colin Kaepernick
      Kevin Hogan = Byron Leftwich
      Dak Prescott = David Garrard
      Connor Cook = Eli Manning with leadership concerns

      1. I like the Andy Dalton comparison. Wentz doesn’t remind me of Roethlisberger at all.

        1. Early years Roethlisberger. Not current Roethlisberger. The Roethlisberger that basically managed the Steelers run first offense, but was calm under pressure and had the capability to win the game and come up with important plays when it mattered.

          1. Roethlisberger always had an accurate deep ball, though.

            I’d like to revise my Wentz comparison from Alex Smith to Jason Campbell.

            1. Sure, but Wentz has a lot of similar traits to Roethlisberger. Tough minded players.

              1. A tough-minded mobile big quarterback with a strong arm but a poor deep ball sounds more like Jason Campbell.

              2. I think Wentz provides better potential than Campbell as a guy that can make big plays when his team needs it most. Wentz is a winner.

              3. Fair enough. I’ve always liked Campbell, thought he was a quality backup that could be an effective starter on a good team. But from what I saw of him in the pros I don’t consider him to be that type of player that can find a way to win.

              4. Yeah, he was a game manager.

                I like Wentz, I just don’t like his deep ball. Could limit his potential.

              5. I get that. It is a weakness of his game. Flacco has the same weakness, and he may well be a better comparison.

    2. You both are off on your comparisons.

      Jared Goff = Matt Ryan/Jay Cutler
      Carson Wentz = a mobile Andy Dalton
      Paxton Lynch = Joe Flacco/Alex Smith
      Kevin Hogan = a young Tyrod Taylor
      Dak Prescott = a poor man’s Colin Kaepernick
      Connor Cook = Tony Romo

        1. I feel like mine are closer. I’m trying real hard here to figure out exactly how Cook is like Eli Manning.

          1. I would sure hope you feel yours are closer!

            Cook is like Eli Manning because he is an accurate passer downfield but can be lazy at the short and intermediate levels, can drift in and out of games, and can be forced into poor throws under pressure. But when the game is on the line he generally performs his best (his last game aside, which could potentially have been impacted by his injury), and knows how to win.

            1. He’s like Romo because he needs everything around him clicking in order to succeed. He’s not going to be able to carry a team, but at the same time, the team can’t do anything without him. Cook will make a throw that will conjure up visions of the best in the game, but he will also make the throws that will result in you rending your clothes. He can thread the needle when he needs to, but he also miss the wide open target. And like Romo, I believe he will need a few playing years under his belt before he can take on the role of a leader.

              1. Romo isn’t a bad comparison, but Romo is one of the more accurate passers at all levels of the field and excels on first and second down.

                Cook’s accuracy is up and down (like Manning), falters a bit under pressure (a bit like Romo, but also like Manning), but he is often better on third down than first or second down (like Manning).

              2. Interesting. Maybe I’ve been too hard on Cook. I really don’t like him..

              3. Cook played behind a great OL. Manning played behind a bad OL on a team overmatched by the rest of its conference. Reminds me more of Goff.

              4. The Giants OL hasn’t always been poor, but Manning has always had the same issues.

              5. Adam Schefter ‏@AdamSchefter · 10h10 hours ago

                Jon Gruden just said on ESPN that Michigan State’s Connor Cook “is gonna be perhaps the best QB in this draft.”

              6. That’s different than having velocity on a line. I think Cook has more in common with Matt Schaub than Eli Manning.

              7. Its very difficult to have excellent accuracy deep without having a pretty good arm. Cook’s arm strength is underrated. Manning’s arm strength is pretty similar.

              8. Cook can’t throw with velocity off his back foot like Manning. Cook is more like Schaub.

              9. You are underrating his arm.

                Schaub was a careful pocket passer with pretty good accuracy in the short and intermediate areas of the field but not enough arm strength to hit deep passes consistently or fit the ball into tight windows. Cook is a gunslinger with excellent accuracy deep and the ability to fit the ball into tight windows, but inconsistent accuracy underneath. He’s like Manning.

              10. I don’t see a gunslinger. I see a system quarterback who will rely heavily on play action in the pros.

              11. Really? He pretty regularly threw the ball downfield and into tight windows, especially on 3rd downs. He trusts his arm.

              12. He didn’t look like a play maker when he faced teams as good as his own. He looked like a system quarterback. Mark Sanchez.

              13. Every QB is a “system QB”. They play within their system. Cook is willing to make throws to players that are in tight coverage and make aggressive throws within that system, rather than settle for the safe play over and over.

              14. I like the Mark Sanchez comparison. They probably will become teammates in a few weeks.

    3. Jared Goff = Matt Ryan
      Carson Wentz = Blake Bortles
      Paxton Lynch = Brock Osweiler with more mobility
      Kevin Hogan = Ryan Fitzpatrick
      Dak Prescott = Logan Thomas
      Connor Cook = Eli Manning

        1. I saw 224 but it doesn’t really matter. He’s listed at 217 now. They are very similar players in stature and style.

          Lynch is hard to find a comparison for because there aren’t many QB’s that tall that have played in the league. Osweiler is an obvious comparison physically although Lynch is much more Mobile. I’d say a more athletic Osweiler and a poor mans Cam Newton aren’t too far off.

          The Wentz-Bortles comparison is pretty close imo. Bortles is more athletic than he gets credit for.

          1. Bortles has a pretty deep ball. Wentz lacks a feel for that pass. He reminds me more of Jason Campbell.

            The best comparison for Lynch might be JaMacarcus Russell. Similar collegiate production and combine numbers. That’s actually a compliment to Lynch. Talent wasn’t Russell’s problem in the pros.

      1. Wentz is a better athlete than Bortles, and Bortles throws a better deep ball than Wentz. Osweiler and Lynch have nothing in common other than their height.

  41. Paxton Lynch reminds me of that “great” 49er QB, Jim Druckenmiller. The only thing missing from his workout was the tractor pulling.

    Paxton can throw the ball downfield but.. throwing the ball downfield doesn’t translate to: he will compete against the teams in the NFC West/League.

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