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  1. Hope Baalke doesn’t trade any 2017 picks to use this year. At least in the first four rounds. They will be high ones. (Imagine the draft power if Tomsula dropped the last game. Pretty dang good player dropping to 5 overall)

    I think the 49ers will significantly improve. Its the nasty schedule that makes me pessimistic.

    Its not just who we play. Its the short week 10am games vs teams with 9 days rest that bugs me. The NFL made the 49ers the sacrificial lamb of the schedule makers. Need to solve a TV scheduling conflict to garner the most ratings? Assign the 49ers a week two loss for the 2nd year in a row.

    By apples to apples measure, the 49ers Monday game ends around 2:30am EST. Then the 49ers fly 3000 miles for a 1:00PM EST game. Is there a law against starting games at 5:00PM EST?

      1. At this point, sure. But we still have 12 picks in the draft and post June 1 pick-ups. (Jonathan Goodwyn was one of those.) So I’m going to wait until TC to judge that. And Chip Kelly, though I really didn’t want him as our coach, is much better than Tomsula, and our new assistant coaches are better than last year’s, also.

        1. Hope you’re right. Harbaugh and his staff always had this team ready to play, regardless of the schedule. I’m hoping to see signs of that from this staff though I’m not sure the talent is there to produce a lot of wins. Think it will be a year of moral victories

          1. I’m missing the Harbaugh days! It seems that’s when Kap started falling apart, that and Baalke is arrogant fool who will destroy this team with his ego and scorched earth policy. I hope some good drafting decisions are made starting with a QB like Goff. I’m not happy with Chip as our coach, I still confused with some of his decisions like Foles for Bradford???? Anyway jury is out and he can’t do any worse than that tragedy of Tomsula, the Rich Kotite of this decade. I hope for the best, but not this year. Maybe 2018 or 19. We need to become a NFL power again, not continue as a pushover! Anyway I agree with your points.

      2. Optimism? I can’t imagine how “Hope Baalke doesn’t trade any 2017 picks to use this year. At least in the first four rounds. They will be high ones” sounds like optimism.

        The 49ers could improve but still have a 5 win season because of the schedule, and the fact we were lucky to have five wins last year. (or unlucky when you consider who will go at pick 5)

        This year I’m holding off hard predictions until the week before the regular season. You never know who will retire, crash his car or last moment health issues.

  2. I like the prediction game… But I’m going to wait until after training camp and the final 53. Because what I feel now is definitely gonna change after the draft, and after the injuries that will incur during said camp.

    1. Common sense rears its ugly head. I predicted a winning 2015 season before Aldon was all Done, AD retired and Kilgore’s leg relapsed.

      1. I think Rocket, Coffee, and I were the only ones that predicted a losing season. We just didn’t predict that bad of a season.

        1. I thought I was pretty much on my own in that regard for most of the offseason. There was a lot of rose colored Tomsula love that I had to put up with.

          1. You weren’t. Don’t forget I predicted a 7-9 season and tangoed with Razor and a couple others over my belief that Tomsula was not going to improve the team and that he was a yes man. The only thing I wore rose-colored glasses about Kaepernick; I honestly thought he would finally take that next step.

            1. You misunderstood Mid. I meant I felt that way based on all the support there was from Tomsula and the daily arguments I had with people. I know I wasn’t the only one who felt that way. Just seemed like it at times.

              1. No need to apologize Mid. I just wanted to make sure you understood the point I was trying to make. I probably didn’t say it clearly enough the first time.

  3. At the end of the day, it’s nearly impossible to visualize a scenario in which the team isn’t in the division cellar. Seattle, Arizona and L.A. are in much better positions as franchises. The Rams are trying to get their franchise QB. If they hit on the pick, the 49ers will be watching the playoffs from home for quite awhile. I see a mass cleansing coming to this team in 3-4 years, followed by another rebuilding period.

    1. Grant ..

      if this season plays out, like your prediction ..
      how long of a leash do you think Chipster has ..?

      and .. by the same token …
      how about Baalke ?

      1. Chip is Baalke’s ” fall guy”…. and Baalke is Dork’s ” fall guy”

        Chip will get the ax to save Baalke’s butt.

        Baalke will hire another coach……

        and after that dosent work……

        Baalke will finally get the ax to appease the little people!

        that is hoe JeDork is going to play this hand, we play right into his hand by purchasing tickets and such!

    2. BigP,

      Agreed. It’s not too early to see that no matter what happens in the draft, most of the starters will be the same as last year. They weren’t very good then and I don’t see how they are magically going to improve enough to win many games this year.

      4-12 is my prediction as well.

      1. Rocket,
        Doesn’t it feel like it will take some time for the self inflicted wounds to heal and for the perception of the franchise to change? The reputation of the York’s was the same as it is now before Harbaugh was hired. Jed was looked at positively from the moment he hired Harbaugh and until the backstabbing and leaks began. Both he and his father committed mistakes that not only defy logic, but they also showed that the York’s don’t know what they don’t know. They fired Mariucci after making it to the second round of the playoffs. They went through Erickson, Nolan and Singletary without a single playoff appearance. They lucked into Harbaugh, who lead them to three NFCCG’s and a SB in four years and then fired him. Tomsula lasted a whole year.

        I thought that if they hired Shanahan and drafted a QB, hope might be salvaged. They didn’t. They hired Kelly, Kaep’s ideal offensive fit. The problem is that Kaepernick doesn’t want to play for the 49ers or Kelly. If he stays, the situation will likely fester and the end result will be him being traded. At that point, the questions about Kelly finding a QB to run his system and about Baalke’s future will start appearing. Baalke will be the first sacrificial lamb, in a year or two. Chip’s failure to find a QB that effectively runs his system will put his head on the block next. At that point, Jed will be completely bald and ready to hit the reset button, again. The problem is that the team will always have won one game too many to be in position to draft a great QB, but will almost assuredly overdraft one in the year they have the #1 pick because nobody will be willing to trade for their pick. They will milk that poor rookie for a few years until he gets the first post Kelly coaching staff fired. Then they will replace that staff with “teachers” that can help fulfill the suffering young QB. After that they had better hope that a Harbaugh caliber coach has peaked at Cal or Stanford, is looking to join the NFL and has a pregnant wife who refuses to move.

        You have a very clear common denominator for the 49ers struggles: The York’s.

        You have a very clear reason for the 49ers recent success: Harbaugh.

        There were so many little moving parts involved with getting Harbaugh that getting a coach of his caliber just doesn’t seem likely to happen again for the York’s. If they eventually find a competent HC, history shows that they will likely ruin that relationship and run of success as well.

        1. Not sure I agree with the Shanahan bit. Shanahan had trouble winning without Elway–7 years without a playoff win–and he had plenty of say over the QBs.

          I don’t think there was any option other than Kelly. No one wanted the 9ers job after Tomsula. 9ers had a chance at Fangio and Gase and that was the last time the 9ers’ coaching gig had any appeal. I thought Fangio would have been deserving based on Arians’ success in AZ, another coordinator lifer. Maybe they could have even gotten both. Then again, I’m not sure they would have done any better with that offensive line.

          1. The Shanahan and draft a rookie scenario seemed more plausible than a Kelly and hope Kaep wants to stay one. He is a bright offensive mind and there is a fraternity of coaches familiar with his offense. People laughed at him for endorsing Cousins over Griffin and now Cousins is franchised and Griffin is in Cleveland. I’m not convinced that Kelly will find his NFL QB before heading back to college. There are many dynamics to the pro game that just don’t seem to mesh with his philosophy. It seems like Kelly would need more things to align in order to reach his full potential than many NFL coaches would. He started with good talent in Philly and won. He stripped away that talent and ended up losing. Those actions don’t show an appreciation for the talent that difference makes at the NFL level. They signal a Steve Spurrier-ish ‘I bet my Fun n’ Gun will work with the the big boys’ approach to coaching in the NFL. Kelly seems like the type of dude that would take a top coaching job at a moments notice. The hire just feels like the wrong coach at the wrong time. It seems destined to prolong the suffering of the Faithful.

            1. I disagree because Kelly is on his last legs to be a pro coach in the NFL. He could have had any job in college football after getting fired in Philly. Instead he stayed in the NFL and wants to prove he is a top level coach.
              As we have seen, people employed in the NFL that get a 2nd opportunity usually take advantage of it. Kelly is in the perfect situation in SF.
              He gets a complete redo. All he has to do is coach and this time around he gets to chose personnel to fit his offense from day one.
              Baalke gets to buy the groceries but not the offensive groceries. That’s on Kelly. Hand picked and coached by him day one and his staff. His leash will be 3 years. No expectations year one. Has to win at least 8 games year 2 and year 3 playoff bound or very close.
              Point is he just has to show improvement.
              Harbaugh had it different. The talent was already there. Tomsula had no chance. Kelly gets a clean slate to do whatever he wants.
              Let’s be clear. This is a complete rebuild. Winning games is not the expectation. Gradual improvement and a lot of patience by the fan base in 3 years will be required.

              1. “How is it that you compare Kelly’s offense with Spurrier’s Fun n Gun offense? Other than the tempo aspect and possibly the personnel and spread formation…”

                Like I said, I never compared (one is passing based and one is run based) the offenses, but this sentence was golden. It reminded me of the scene on Chappelle’s Show where Rick James denies grinding his feet into Eddie Muphy’s coach…

              2. affp,

                I disagree with your assessment of Shanahan. He had Washington in the middle of the pack of total offense with a washed up McNabb and Rex Grossman as his starters his first two years. The first year with RGIII they were 5th and the second year 9th. His offense is and always has been effective. It was defense that killed the Skins; not offense. They gave up way too many points the last two years.

                I do agree with the view of Kelly’s offense continuing to evolve and have stated that myself a number of times. He has gone to much more of a passing attack than he ran in College or his first year in Philly. My hope is he continues to incorporate other things as time goes on in SF.

              3. rocket

                I said Shanahan was an average to above average coach. just not the one that could turn around the Niner’s fortunes on the field and off the field.

                his offense is solid; its just not as dominant as it was in his early years. again, much of that had to do with Elway but as I said; I believe the NFL caught up to him. there are no great advantages due to innovation to his offense; what’s left is play calling and execution….which is what most of the rest of the NFL offenses are…no distinct tactical advantage. The one exception to that is when he had RGIII as he started to incorporate some read option into his offense. So perhaps Shanahan isn’t quite stuck as an average to above average coach …it would have been interesting to see how his offense would have worked if he had more time with RGIII (healthy and willing) or Kaepenrick.

              4. affp,

                Got it. I just don’t see any drop off overall in Shanahan’s schemes effectiveness, especially when he’s had quality players to run it. His offense is not as innovative as it once was possibly, but it’s still effective and one of those systems that is almost unstoppable if run properly. I just see him as one of those minds that can work with any style of player which is why I wanted him as the HC. Kelly seems like a hail mary to me.

            2. BigP,

              I do not agree with your assessments of Shanahan and Kelly.

              At this point Shanahan is just an average to good coach. People talk about his having Elway that accounted for much of his success in his early Denver days. But the other primary reason was that his offense at the time was innovative and it took awhile for the NFL to compensate for his zone heavy run plays that emphasized the multiple zone stretch. the other aspect was the half field passing roll outs and play action melded with a WCO passing scheme. Defenses figured out how to clamp down on the half field WCO passing concepts (Kubiak really had a problem with this in his last couple of seasons with the Texans). Could Shanahan have improved the Niners? probably…but he probably wouldn’t have transformed the team and rebuilt their reputation.

              How is it that you compare Kelly’s offense with Spurrier’s Fun n Gun offense? Other than the tempo aspect and possibly the personnel and spread formation….the plays themselves are about as old school ground and pound football as you can get. It’s tied to a play action passing game and once he got to the NFL he added a WCO passing component to it. people fixate on the the tempo issue. it has it’s advantages and disadvantages but it’s not as if he runs at high speed for the whole game…if he’s ahead later in the slows it down. He does stick to his belief in tempo and spread formations…that’s true. But his offense is constantly evolving so it’s not stuck..he’s not completely trying to force a college offense on an NFL team. Weather he can make his core football beliefs work with other NFL tactics, strategies and philosophies remains to be seen.

              1. Allffunnplay

                Excellent assesment…there are a lot of pessimists on here today. Mike Shannahan is used up , but he was sharp in that when he first went to Denver, he picked up players from the 49er ‘retirement’ program who still had a couple good years left, so many that we referred to them as the “59ers”. He used them well and integrated his drafts into them.

                Also we’re also not the only team to grow old….let’s see just how many retirements our division suffers who are NOT 49ers….

              2. It’s not so much an endorsement of Shanahan as it is a gut feeling that Kelly will struggle to succeed with the 49ers because it seems that he needs a certain type of QB to run his offense effectively. I think that Goff and Shanahan would be a more traditional combo that is more likely to succeed over the long term than a Kelly and Kaep combo.

                I didn’t compare Kelly’s offense to Spurrier’s. I do think that Kelly, like Spurrier, believes his offensive philosophy is the sole/overriding reason for his success. I can envision a scenario in which Kelly heads back to college after a second less than successful stint as an NFL HC, like Spurrier did. He just seems like a better fit for the college game, like Spurrier was. Kids are on scholarship, they only have to deal with him for a few years and he has complete control. There are no salary related issues or combative veterans to deal with.

                I have always said that Kelly is very well respected by NFL people. I’m just not convinced that he is a fit for the league, or at least the right coach for the 49ers, at this time. Something about it feels misaligned. You knew Harbaugh would be successful. I don’t feel that way about Chip and his tenure with Philadelphia did nothing to change my mind about that. I hope he works out.

              3. BigP

                “I do think that Kelly, like Spurrier, believes his offensive philosophy is the sole/overriding reason for his success.”

                that’s what I was referring to. Kelly is the defacto OC. an OC should believe their scheme/philosophy is the dominant factor in offensive success. It’s not an attitude I would want from my GM.

                pretty much all offenses need a certain type of QB to play in them. some need strong armed downfield passers. others need accurate quick footed ones. some need quick decision makers that are mobile. it’s only occasionally that a QB meets all the criteria for a particular offensive system in which he is playing in. his offense isn’t that radically different than all the others in the NFL; he just blends it together differently.

                the only question about Kelly and his being able to coach in the NFL is how he deals with players. I don’t think it’s as bad as some of his Philli detractors make it out to be. But there’s no denying that he has a “my way or the highway attitude” which is necessary for a head coach but there needs to be some flexibility in how he implements it with grown multi-millionaire men and not 19 year old college kids.

              4. Big P,

                FWIW, there is one big difference between Spurrier’s and Kelly’s approach’s to being an NFL HC: Spurrier was a 9 to 5 HC and Kelly only cares about football. Whether or not this difference translates to more success for Kelly remains to be seen, but it is a significant difference in style between the two.

      2. BigP,

        I can’t argue with your conclusion at all. Ever since the York family took over the team it’s been a disaster, save for the Harbaugh era which they were intent on blowing up because of personality conflicts. I think Jed got a large dose of humility with how badly the Tomsula hire turned out, but I think Kelly was a panic hire when Hue Jackson turned them down. I’m giving Kelly a chance – not that I have any choice – because he has shown an ability to evolve the past couple of years, but there is a possibility that DC’s around the league have been able to see through the smoke and mirrors and he will have to continue to change to have success.

        1. Rocket,

          According to Mike Silver during his interview on “The TK Show” podcast, the 49ers were Hue Jackson’s preferred landing spot. He said that the 49ers and HJ really liked each other, then the 49ers moved away from him, rather than Jackson turning the 49ers down.

          1. I didn’t listen to the podcast, but from everything I read he was the Niners first choice. The thought was he wasn’t agreeable to allowing Baalke total control over the roster and that is why they went elsewhere. Whatever the case, there is no way Kelly was their first choice when he was sitting out there for so long and nobody was interviewing him. He seemed like the fallback option.

            1. Could be, but Silver was definitive, HJ wanted to come to the 49ers and thought he was going to get an offer that he would’ve signed. And then there was no offer, so he moved on.

              1. BTW, your reaction to this info was very much like TK’s: “But this doesn’t fit my narrative that the 49ers are completely and utterly incompetent in every single move they make.” :)

              2. As I said previously, everything I read both from local writers and national, said Jackson was their #1 choice (after Payton declined anyway). When he didn’t get an offer it was presumed that Baalke’s insistence on retaining complete control of the roster was the reason why. I phrased it as Hue turning the job down because he essentially did just that if he didn’t agree to the terms of Baalkes personnel control. Kelly on the other hand was interviewed and then left to swing in the wind for quite awhile. You don’t do that to a guy you believe is your #1 choice and a must have for your organization.

                It’s like deja vu all over again ex. We went through something similar a year ago when you didn’t like my view of the teams operation and future. I’ll say the same thing I did then: I don’t want to feel this way. I simply see so much incompetence around this team that I have to be honest and call it like I see it. I don’t have a narrative I’m trying to follow I promise you. There is nothing I would like more than to find something to be hopeful about regarding this team, but to go from the disaster of last year into this offseason and really do nothing other than bringing in a new HC, well it just isn’t enough for me to find a lot of optimism.

              3. Rocket,

                I get why you assumed what you did regarding the HJ inteview process. I read the same stuff and thought there was good chance it was true, as well. Then I heard the Silver interview and realized the reporting I had heard was probably incorrect, given Silver’s connection to HJ.

                Silver: “I know Hue Jackson really, really wanted that job.” Silver did note that HJ was excited to have a chance for any HC job.

                “Going into the coaching search, he viewed the 49er job as best job on paper.”

                “He had a relationship with Baalke from Washington, liked the cap space, felt the roster was better than people were giving it credit for, and had good feelings for Jed York…” I found the last part both surprising and interesting.

                Look, I don’t like what Jed York has done in the last few years and I don’t love Baalke (although, if there was a strong team president, and it’s Jed’s fault that there’s not, he might be ok), but I just don’t believe anyone can be wrong 100% of the time.

                I don’t quite understand your de javu remark, Rocket. I don’t believe I’ve made any comments on what I think the 49ers record might be next year, nor, as far as I know, have I made any comments as to my level of optimism or pessimism for the team’s chances going forward.

                As for last year, let me say again, Rocket, you were right and I was wrong about the team last year. I apologize for putting you through the wringer last year, I had no idea it caused you such pain. I’m really sorry that I made you so uncomfortable.

              4. ex,

                You didn’t make me uncomfortable and I hope that last paragraph was in jest. I wasn’t looking for a pat on the back for my views of last year. I was just referring to your TK comment in regards to my take on the subject. I know it may seem that I’m trying to find fault at times, but I’m not. I’m simply disillusioned by the way this team has completely fallen apart due to poor decision making and talent evaluation.

                As far as HJ goes, I understand that Hue thought it was a great job going in and he had nothing but positive things to say all through the process, but the belief is that he wasn’t interested in the personnel arrangement. Every report said he was the Niners favorite and they had a meeting in Cincy where he was expected to be offered the job. We don’t know for sure what was said, but if every source is saying the same thing, we have a pretty good idea that was the case don’t we?

              5. Rocket,

                No, not really, especially when a reporter with very good, if not the most, access to Hue Jackson, has a different story.

                Sure, it might’ve happened just the way you claim to know it did (btw, the process you describe using to arrive at your entrenched position is interesting. Let me ask you, would you bet your house that you’re right? Not as a throw away line, but really, would you?), but it also might not have.

                I mean, do you really expect HJ and his people to admit that the 49ers rejected him, IF they did? Hell no, they’d get the exact opposite story out there, ASAP.

                Do you really think their story would be: “Well, Hue really, really wanted the 49ers HC job. Of all the jobs, he saw it as clearly the best situation. The interviews went really well and it seemed he’d get a contract offer. When 49ers said they weren’t finished with their interview process, Hue jumped to Cleveland, in order to not be left without a chair, when the HC-ing music stopped.” It would be irresponsible of HJ’s agents to tell that story.

                From what I heard from Silver, it’s quite possible that’s just what happened.

                It’s possible that something in between happened.

                It’s possible it happened just as you said.

                The fact is, nobody but the parties concerned really know.

                BTW, not everybody was reporting the story the way you suggest.

                One final thing, how many times have the reporters who claimed to “know” what was going on with CK been proven wrong, often in the same news cycle? How many of these same reporters are the ones who you’re trusting to make your common sense, no other possible conclusion on 49ers / HJ?

              6. I’ll have to listen to the podcast because from what you’ve said there is really nothing new to the story. Silver wrote at the time that Hue was interested. He also wrote that the Niners were interested. What we don’t know is the exact reason why he wasn’t offered the job during after the interview in Cincinnati. The story Hue and his reps have put out is standard and respectful because you never want to burn bridges in this league. I also doubt he feels rejected. If he didn’t agree to Baalke making all the personnel decisions then he knows he gave them reason not to hire him.

                As far as betting my house, I wouldn’t, but I would bet a tidy sum, and a lot more than I’d bet on Kelly being the top choice.

              7. Rocket,

                I can live with that. It just didn’t seem that’s what you were thinking when we started this exchange. I’ll try to keep that in mind, going forward.

            2. “there is no way Kelly was their first choice when he was sitting out there for so long”

              Of course there is. You have no direct knowledge of their thought process yet you make a definitive statement like that.

              1. I have common sense, and common sense says that Kelly was not their first choice, or second for that matter. You can choose to believe whatever you like though.

              2. Rocket,

                You know what it sounds like you’re saying there? “Anyone who doesn’t agree with me, doesn’t have common sense.” Is that really what you’re saying?

              3. Whatever sense you choose to use, you have no clue what their actual thought process was or if he was their 1st, 2nd, or 5th choice.

              4. ex,

                No that isn’t what I’m saying. I’m saying there is enough there with everything that was said and written, along with how things played out to tell us Kelly was not the top choice. I don’t need direct knowledge of their thought process to piece it together.

              5. Actually you do. There have been plenty of times when I was hiring for a position that I knew who I wanted, but went through additional candidates to make sure I wasn’t missing out on someone better.

                In this case you really have no clue and are trying to act like thinking otherwise is silly.

              6. So when you do your interviews are there reports from multiple sources telling everyone the details of what was said? You’ve never formed an opinion without direct knowledge from the source? Don’t be disingenuous Jack. Every thing that is said around here is based on rumors and reports. That is what my statement is based on and I said nothing about how someone should feel if they think differently. Those were your words not mine. You can view it however you like.

              7. Rocket,

                You do realize those “reports” are quite often nothing more than rumors, right?

                i mean, really, just look at the “reporting” on CK.

              8. Rocket,

                Right, but that’s not how you presented your position. You presented it as if there’s no sensible alternative way to see things.

                Go back and read your posts. You don’t leave much room for alternate opinions on the subject.

                If you’re now admitting that your opinion is actually based on rumors, and it’s only your opinion, I’ve got no problem with that.

              9. Forming an opinion, yes. If you want to base your common sense off of rumors that’s your choice I guess.

              10. It’s not just rumors guys. It’s how it played out and the info that was given as I already said. As I’ve also said multiple times, you are free to believe whatever you like.

              11. Rocket,

                Yep, and I believe, regardless of what the rumors / reports were / are, we can’t be certain what happened between HJ and the 49ers. Nor can we be sure which of the candidates was the first, second, or seventh choices for HC. Moreover, I’m not sure it matters which candidate was which choice. Just because at the start of the process there was an assumed order of preference of the candidates, I would think, no, expect, that it’s subject to change.

                The question I really want to know the answer to, is what can Chip Kelly accomplish with / for the 49ers?

              12. Ex you will start to have answers in 2 weeks.
                The draft will tell us how much control Kelly has over personnel.
                It will also tell us what type of scheme the 49ers look to employ. Should be good stuff, can’t wait!

              13. ex,

                Yep, and I believe, regardless of what the rumors / reports were / are, we can’t be certain what happened between HJ and the 49ers. Nor can we be sure which of the candidates was the first, second, or seventh choices for HC. Moreover, I’m not sure it matters which candidate was which choice. Just because at the start of the process there was an assumed order of preference of the candidates, I would think, no, expect, that it’s subject to change.

                You didn’t like me making a definitive statement on the subject, I get it. However, every opinion anyone makes on here is always based on information we read from other sources. We never know exactly what somebody said or what took place, but yet we still come on here and make judgments on an array of different topics. The way I see it is the way I see it. The common sense retort was in response to Jack drawing a line on what I can say based on having direct knowledge of the situation. That is silly, and flies in the face of pretty much every thing that is said on this forum. I’m sure Jack has made a few statements in his time that have been based on what he’s read or heard. We are fed info, rumors, statements etc. and we put the pieces together. At the end of the day I stated what my view is. You both are free to disagree.

                The question I really want to know the answer to, is what can Chip Kelly accomplish with / for the 49ers?

                I think we all want to know the answer to that, but we won’t get much of an idea until Sept. Right now it’s about how the team looks personnel wise and what they get in the draft.

              14. Rocket wrote, “Every thing that is said around here is based on rumors and reports.”

                Well, technically nothing is said around here, unless you are all talking to yourselves as you type. ;)

                Seriously, I agree in principle with rocket. Much of what is written here, especially this time of year, is indeed based on rumors and non-validated reports. The distinguishing factor is the quality of the analysis applied to said rumors and non-validated reports.

              15. JPN,

                What you don’t talk to yourself as you write entries? I thought everybody did that…umm nevermind.;)

              16. JPN,

                I think that things on here are largely based on rumor was my point, originally. Just saying, er, I mean, writing…

              17. Almost all of my comments are based on what I’ve heard or read, which is why I don’t present them as fact, which is what you did with Kelly and where he fell in their pecking order.

      3. Hyde, Kilgore, Beadles, Tiller, Brown (Davis), no Vernon Davis plus, as I know it’s been noted, the younger players will have another year under their belt. It’s not a reason to jump up and down, but the game day lineup should be at least marginally better this year.

  4. Yep, 4-12 and you are being generous. They are simply the worst team in the NFL and will continue to be so for some time. Rough road ahead.

    1. I wouldn’t say they’re the worst team. One of the worst, but the Browns are easily the worst.

      1. Maybe not the worst, but I’d argue the sorriest. If Hyde stays healthy and Chip somehow upgrades the passing game, maybe they can compete.

  5. You should have waited until after the draft at least before making season prediction.
    I think the run defense is what’s going to make or break the 49ers this upcoming season. They were terrible against the run in 2015, and Kelly chose to hire a DC whose defense was plowed through by RBs during his two seasons with the Browns. The 49ers run defense could be in for a long season with the RBs they’ll have to face.

    1. There is no silver lining. Jed, like his father before him, has only proven that he is willing to destroy a winning foundation. He has not proven that he can build one. He lucked into Harbaugh, didn’t realize how fortunate he was and actually believed that Tomsula was an upgrade, similar to his father believing that Erickson would be an upgrade over Mariucci. He got played by Baalke, who was happy to play the know-it-all-tough-guy G.M. while he had a winning coach, but feebly called the draft a gamble as soon as it became apparent that the coaching could no longer cover up his drafting warts. Jed fired a difference maker in Harbaugh, just like his father fired a difference maker in Mariucci. Two very good coaches fired by two consecutive generations of idiots, followed by years of missing the playoffs and coaching changes. If getting tea-bagged weekly by $2000 fan paid biplane banners in your own house doesn’t get you to change, nothing will. Welcome to House York, where billionaire mommy brags about shopping at Walmart.

      1. Well, I have been one who has called for Jed to be held accountable, but do not see that happening anytime soon.
        However, if the Niners implode, I hope they keep Chip and fire Baalke.

      2. I couldn’t agree more BigP but think the difference between Jed and Papa is that Papa thought for himself more and Jed has been captured by Baalke. Like many have said, no real good HC would take the job, but Kelly did. I think he did because he was desperate to get back into the game and show that he has the stuff. I also think that the 49ers could have had him for money closer to Tomsula’s than what they paid (remember that the Eagles are picking up the difference for the remainder of their contract and there was nothing they could do about it) Jed got rolled by Kelly and it was because he needed to get a non-Tomsula type replacement and Kelly was the only fool who would apply because of Baalke. If Jed had paid Kelly the small sum he was willing to work for, the fans would be all over him for hiring a loser again. Harbaugh was forced out by Baalke and until he goes, we’re not going to have a quality team. I’m not a hater. I’m just sad.

        1. Well said. I think Jed and John are very similar, although John isn’t a face of the team anymore and never wanted to be one in the first place. John was very impulsive after they took control of the franchise. I look at Jed as John’s proxy. They are used to being good at business, which they are. They clearly don’t understand football and aren’t good at it. They’ve been good when they’ve hired good people and stayed out of the way. Both of them. I never understood the Baalke love, but I believe he’s next to go. I think Baalke exploited the Harbaugh dynamic for his own benefit. He was exposed as soon as he started referring to the draft as a ‘gamble’ awhile back. He was suddenly on his heels and preemptively trying to cushion his fall. Have you ever seen Harbaugh do something like that? Jed knows he backed the fake tough guy and now he’s walking down the alley, alone. The biplane banners will be very creative this season, I’m sure.

          1. I think Hargaugh is successful because he only allows himself to work with can do type people. The 49ers are run by a young biz school grad and a management consultant who developed a system for tracking and managing the salary cap. Baalke is absolutely not a can do guy. Whatever Harbaugh needed from Baalke was subject to him running it by the two bean counters. Harbaugh is what he is and he will not change much. He knows what he knows and he wants to be around nothing but can do people. That is what is at the heart of his success. IMO, Kelly made a mistake. He should have taken some time off, regrouped and waited for an opportunity with a functional franchise. When Harbaugh was at his best here, he brought everyone around him up to a higher standard. With Jed, Paraag and a damaged Kelly, they will do nothing more than find the lowest common denominator.

            1. I guess it’s true that ‘absence makes the heart grow fonder’….personally, I’m so happy that Harbaugh is gone I can’t even say it…the most egotistical, self-centered, control freak, captain comeback, quarterback whisperer, who called out his team owner and his guests in front of a team meeting …and wonders how and why he got fired. You know, the guy who stepped into a team and started disassembling it day one. Well, he had three shots at the crown…and missed. I certainly don’t miss him at all…worst mistake ever, and we still can’t get rid of his legacy…Kaep….

              1. The only thing to like about Harbaugh is that he wins. I wasn’t crazy about a lot of things he did and really am not that sad to see him gone. I would like to see Kelly succeed because I think he is a competitor and will elevate our play. But at the end of the day, Baalke will only be able to do what Jed and Paraag say he can and I agree with those who think that Baalke and Kelly will clash. Kelly and any good HC need can do people to work with. It all starts with the HC. I’m afraid that Baalke will end up being just a ball and chain and that’s sad.

              2. Oregon,

                You just ranted about nothing football related in regards to your dislike of the only successful HC in the York era. This is why I can’t take you seriously when you make opinions on the team. Your entire view is related to how much you like the individual and not about what happens on the field. It’s football not a personality contest.

                To say hiring one of the most successful HC’s in NFL history over a 3 year span was the worst mistake ever, is a new level of asinine. No one should take your views seriously as they are so off base and out of touch it’s astonishing.

              3. Oregon,
                You’re still butt hurt about the Milky Blues being shipped off to K.C. after playing the good caddie for Harbaugh. Harbaugh instantly made this team better and the team instantly became worse after he was fired.

                Pre-Harbaugh: 8 years without playoffs

                Harbaugh: 3 NFCCG’s and a SB in 4 years

                Post Harbaugh: 5-11

                You sound like a scorned lover; you’re emotionally compromised and incapable of formulating rational thoughts. K.C. fans realized that Smith isn’t the answer two years ago. And you wonder why Harbaugh wanted Manning over Smith or Kaep. He reached for a title and came up short with Kaep, yet it was still much closer to the finish line than Smith has ever reached. You’d rather lose with Smith than win with Kaep and your ridiculous anti Harbaugh rants prove it.

                Everybody calls out Jed because he’s an idiot. Harbaugh saw the writing on the wall and he knew who the leaks were coming from. He ripped the owner to his face instead of devolving into Jed’s backstabbing tactics. Fans call Jed out with banners every week. Journalists call him out. Girl Scouts call him out. He’s the guy that preached accountability and then proceeded to hide as the banners trolled him for his self inflicted post Harbaugh purgatory. Awesome.

              4. I would vote Harbaugh for President if he were running (lol).
                OREGON, I happen to agree with most of what you said.

                But arguing against a coach that had us in the playoffs and a Superbowl appearance is tantamount to howling at the moon my friend.

              1. That is perfect BigP. I’m just amazed at how much he favors somebody’s personality over how well they perform on the field or as a Coach. This is the wrong business to take that approach.

              2. Rocket,
                I’m sure the Patriots fans are content with Belichick’s lack of personality, despite all of the winning. ( ;

              3. Big Paul

                Have I mentioned just how much we all missed you ? Together with rocket, I’m sure that you’ll get together with Grimey, and the rest of the jerk circle and wreak havoc on anyone with a different opinion on the fortyniners. Just what is it that you bring to the table other than a pessimistic know-it-all take that gets regurgitated every week or so. Don’t stay away so long….

              4. Oregon,
                Let’s be honest, if you were granted one wish by a genie, it would be to become a bottle of Goldbond powder that makes it into Alex Smith’s basket at the drug store.

              5. First time I’ve looked at the blog in a few days. And since I see my name’s been mentioned I’ll just add that, if we’re the “jerk circle”, OREGON is the guy in the middle taking loads…

              6. Big Paul

                You and your Milky blues…I have never referred to anyone as Milky blues. I had to ask ninermd who it referred to…Alex Smith. Yes, I am an unabashed fan of Alex’ and it looks like he and his teammates are going to be candidates for next seasons SB. Maybe you can copywrite ‘Milky blues’ and make a buck off of it. It sounds like YOU have the boy-crush on him…’Sure is great to see you back….

  6. We should be 7-9 or 8-8. Kelly will suspense a few teams. We won 5 last year. We will improve at least two games.

    1. Ya I agree. We played good enough to be 6-10 last year. Our defense will be better this year, both personnel wise and with the scheme. Manginis scheme is very hit or miss and takes a lot of risks.

      1. Actually they should have been 3-13. The Bears and Rams both would have beaten them if their kickers hadn’t missed chip shots.

        1. Missing FG’s is very common. Especially now with the extra point distance, although that’s not my particular argument. It’s not out of the ordinary to miss field goals. Its pretty out of the ordinary to lose a game on a touchdown pass with seconds remaining versus winning or losing a game on a missed field goal.

          I guess I don’t have the best argument. My point is we played good against the Giants and lost the game at the last second. We make a stop and we are 6-10.

          1. James,

            I just don’t buy the narrative that they were better than the record showed last year or will automatically be better this coming season. They were one of the worst teams in the league last year no matter which way you look at it – statistically or record – and have added nothing in FA. The DC is coming off a terrible year in Cleveland so I’m not sure how that makes the defense better than Mangini’s unit. We could have some young players improve and play a bigger role, but most of the guys who played the majority of the snaps last year will be doing so again. There is also the fact that every other team the Niners will play will also be in the same position as far as young players taking the next step or key contributors gaining more experience. They all get draft picks too. The problem the Niners have is there is more than one problem. It’s not only the Coaching question, but overall talent question. This is not a very talented roster if we are honestly assessing what we’ve seen from it at this point.

            1. Adding to that, Seattle and Arizona look like contenders for years to come and the Rams look like they’re up and coming. Kroenke seems obsessed with making the Rams one of, if not the premier NFL franchise. The average fan doesn’t pay attention to his worth or the Inglewood stadium project. It’s going to be huge and the Rams will really benefit from it when complete.

              It’s not just about the 49ers, it’s about the other teams in the division. The Rams, Seahawks and Cardinals all have more stable coaching staffs, more talent and better reputations around the league. Chip could make the 49ers significantly better and still not get past third place in the division over the next five years. That’s a very real possibility. Then what? The 49ers were not better than their record indicated. They were worse than their record indicated, but in true York tainted fashion they won a game or two that they shouldn’t have and lost valuable draft position.

        2. It could have been worse, Ravens receivers dropped a TD pass and Quinn went brain dead by not going for it on 4th down. Niners could have been 1-15.

        3. I wonder if Giants fans are sitting around lamenting their win over the 49ers? “If only Tramaine Brock hadn’t dropped that easy intercept, we’d be picking higher!”.

          Or if the Cardinals fans are saying how lucky they were to get the Dial roughing the passer penalty on the drive that broke the deadlock in the second meeting of the two teams last season? Or the back-to-back-to-back penalties that led to a TD drive earlier in the game?

          Little moments decide a lot of games each week. The 49ers got lucky in some, unlucky in others.

          1. I think the Giants fans are lamenting the fireworks incident with Pierre – Paul more than anything.

          2. Scooter

            Thanks for making the point that I was trying to put the proper words to…….We were not the only ones who had good and bad fortune befall us “on any given day” we must get over these trials….

          3. Scooter,

            I don’t know how Giants fans feel, but I feel the same way I did during the season. The gift wins were not a good thing. There is nothing to carry over to the next year and we are picking 7th when we could have been in the top 4. The Niners were a bad team whether it was 5 wins or 3. The only difference is the caliber of player we will get a shot at in a couple of weeks.

            1. No, but you say it like the 49ers are the only ones that ever received good fortune last year (though to you it is bad fortune to have won). You say the 49ers could/ should have been 3-13, but equally they could have been 7-9.

              Little moments. You win some, you lose some. 5-11 is probably a fair reflection of the team last year. Yeah, it sucks we aren’t picking higher, but I disagree with the narrative the team didn’t deserve to win those 5 games. They are picking 7, and in all likelihood won’t get Goff. You’re just going to have to accept it I’m afraid.

              1. Scooter,

                They won two games in which the opposing kicker missed an easy FG attempt, in fact twice in the Chicago game. That rarely happens once in a season never mind twice. They were much closer to a 3 win team than a 7 win team imo. When you are ranked 31st in total offense and 29th in total defense you are a bottom feeding team.

                Everybody is giving me crap over my Goff dream going up in smoke. Talk about kicking a guy when he’s down :)

  7. I’ll wait until training camp starts to make my W-L prediction.

    Chip had his work cut out for him this season even before the tough schedule was announced.

  8. the 49ers may be for sale at the end of the year, and there are several potential buyers and all of them have told the NFL that they would like to explore a possible move to San Diego after the Charges officially move to LA. Yes this is a fact, this has not been made public yet and most probably will not be until the end the season.. Larry Ellison is one of the potential buyers of the 49ers and has said that he does not like Levi stadium and would prefer to build his own stadium in San Diego.if he does in fact purchase the 49ers.

    1. Joe,
      How ironic would that be – given the fact the 49ers first home game was played at San Diego’ Balboa Park on August 24, 1946 for the All America Football Conference.

      But I don’t see San Diego as a viable location because the Chargers and the city are still in negotiations and there will be a voting ballot in November to determine how much taxes the citizens are willing to pay. At the moment the Chargers best course of action for a new stadium would be to go in jointly with the Raiders.
      Too many things up in the air in San Diego regarding the professional football team, I can’t see the 49ers wanting to be any part of this.

    2. The team being for sale may actually happen. HOWEVER, the NFL is not going to abandon the lucrative SF Bay Area market to a sole raider team that has no stadium and is making noises about leaving, a brand new stadium for which the team surely signed a long term lease, and dilute the financial value of one of the league’s historical glamour franchises. That is nonsensical from a pure business standpoint.

      1. Adusoron,
        Agreed. Moving the 49ers from the Bay Area would almost be tantamount to moving the Packers and Cowboys – these teams are vested in their respected communities.
        But then again, so were the Browns and the Colts.

  9. “A Pro Bowler as a rookie last season, and a potential MVP candidate if the Buccaneers make the playoffs next season.”

    When did Jamies Winston all the sudden become Aaron Rodgers?

    We’ll beat the Bucs because their defense is terrible and our offense will get out to an early lead and our defense will take Winston to “pick city” as he forces too many throws in an attempt to comeback from a big deficiet on the road.

  10. Any owner who dismisses a top 5 DC in Vic Fangio, who offered to hire a winning SuperBowl coach who has participated on the winning side 3 times, has some arrogance issues blocking the teams success.
    My biggest complaint was stated best by Big P directly above, and from everything I’ve read or heard over the years by PSL holders echo BigP’s descripton—-49ers 2-16.

    1. *Sorry, I forgot to mention both wins coming in the pre season. Did you want to include that Grant?…If not, 49ers 0-16 in games that count.

  11. This season is all about laying the foundation for Chip’s system and figuring out how all the pieces fit together.

    It’s also about finding out whether Blane can be the guy moving forward.

  12. Chip Kelly’ hire may be the saving grace for Trent Baalke. A losing season with a new regime is usually par for the course and seems to typically fall into the “honeymoon” period.

    I am prepared to handle a 4-6 win season. What I’m not prepared for is watching a team that does not compete and does not have a game plan or vision ala last year.
    I could swallow losses (I’ve been a 49ers fan since the mid 60’s) and I know how to honker down and take the hard times. But even in a loss, I need to see a semblance of growth that gives me hope for the immediate future.

    Bill Walsh and Jimmy Johnson took many losses in their first year as head coaches, but having watched many of those games in that losing season, you had a strong sense that they were growing and would soon become a viable force because of a strong foundation being built from coaching to core of players the organizations were surrounding themselves with.

    Hopefully, I see that this coming season with the new regime.

    1. Actually I couldn’t keep track of who was in the defensive backfield during Walsh’s first season. The first glimmer for me was the next year when the Saints came marching into Candlestick with a horrible record of their own.

      1. I think Tony Dungy was in the defensive backfield. Walsh brought him in to be a player/coach and he ended up as a better coach than a player.

        1. Seifert was the DB coach the first three years. Tony Dungy was probably herding the DB tryouts. I think there were over thirty of them during the season.

  13. In my opinion, tomsula was the worst coach i have ever seen in 25 years of watching football. This team won 5 games with him at the helm and lost only a wr and og in free agency. I feel confident they will do no worse than 5 wins with and actual head coach in charge

    1. the latest NFL mock draft believes the 49ers will trade with the Dallas Cowboys for the No. 4 overall pick and select Wentz.

  14. 10 ways how the Niners can improve and succeed next season.
    1. First and foremost, the Niners must find a way to keep Kaep. Tear up his old contract and give him a new, better, and more equitable one for 16 mil per season. Truly fire Marathe. Let Kaep kick Jed’s rear end in front of the team. Maybe trade Gabbert to Denver for a second round pick.
    2. The Niners struck out on Free Agency, so they need to hit multiple grand slams in the draft.
    3. Niners should trade back to get as many picks in the first 3 rounds, and bundle later picks to move up into the first, second or third round.
    4. Chip needs to lead his coaches and instill basic competency. Last season was pathetic.
    Chip needs to be less predictable and more resilient. He needs to be able to think quick on his feet and make the proper adjustments.
    5. Chip should call Harry Edwards before there are any problems, and Jed should hire him to be at the Niner facilities all season. Preventative medicine.
    6. Chip must be smart enough to utilize Hayne properly. Do not ask him to block much, but let Hayne be the escape valve for blitzes. Hayne does not need to think about blocking assignments if he is receiving punts and kickoffs.
    7. Baalke should leave 6 spots open and poach at least 3 PS players from playoff teams and ninja at least 3 players from the final cuts. Target players who were beat out by pro bowlers, or have good depth on their former team.
    8. Baalke needs to swallow his ego. The A Davis mess is giving ALL of us a headache. Stop being so cheap and pay for quality.
    9. Baalke needs to stop meddling with the coaches and allow them to do their job. Last year’s insistence on playing cut couch potato RBs made me want to throw up.
    10. Baalke should lose his supreme power over the draft. Make it a consensus so all the coaches and scouts have a hand in the bucket. Even allow Jed to select the last player picked.

    1. Well, I agree with #3 anyway….As for #10…change it to Jed allowed to ANNOUNCE the last player picked…not select.

      1. If Jed atones for his bad behavior, I wanted to reward him some way.
        I want to reward good behavior and make him feel part of the team. If he can study hard and nail that pick, we could say that he is at least helping the team in a small way. I think Eddie got to pick the last player, and 5 times it was the very last player of the draft.
        I really do not want to criticize him at every turn, but just wished he would grow up and act in a manner in which I, and all Niners can respect and admire.
        Jed, if he was smart and wanted to act like a champion, he would write out a check for 5.5 mil and hand it to Anquan Boldin. Even if Boldin signs with another team, Jed should tell him that the money should go to his charity. If Boldin decides to remain a Niner, it would show that Jed is keeping his promise to retain veteran leadership.
        If Jed had the class to do that, I would stand up and applaud him.

    2. Seb,

      Chip Kelly already has Dr. Harry Edwards seal of approval. Kelly had the insight to work with Edwards as far back as when he was at Oregon.

      1. Yes, Chip called Harry Edwards when he had all those problems with LMJ and Blount, but he called after the problems happened.
        Maybe he should talk BEFORE players implode to prevent problems, instead of reacting to a crisis.
        Wonder if Chip talked to HE before he cut DJ, one of the most popular players on the team. Or traded LM.

        1. Seb,

          Come on, you suggested Kelly call Edwards in order for Chip to be rehabilitated in the eyes of NFL players, didn’t you? Be honest… It had nothing to do with keeping the players out of trouble.

  15. I dont think Goff or wentz will start week 1 but I do think niners win that game.
    There is no way the niners win at Buff.
    They should beat Tampa at home.

    I think they are a 6 win team at best but 3-4 wins is more likely. We will have top 10 draft picks for the foreseeable future.

  16. This is impossible to predict pre draft. An impact 2016 class plus others from the last three classes taking a leap forward, plus the surprising decline opposing teams experience year to year in the NFL can dramatically change the schedule’s actual toughness.

    That said, right now as a frustrated fan I feel like our floor is 3 wins and our ceiling is 8 wins. We’ll see.

    1. Anatomy of team downfall:

      He was the big stud-at-Levis Stadium, was Jed,

      Until he was nabbed kicken coach from the team
      for bad sod, how odd!

      When Coach booted team off the sod
      Up in smoke went Mommy’s dream,

      Of Jed being o competent owner in pro football PSLers scream.

      Eulogy for a Quarterback’s Reputation
      We’re angry! What sports fan can blame us?

      There hasn’t been one loss for Jameis

      But off-the-field ruckus

      Makes sportscasters muck us

      Once famous, now Jameis just shames us

  17. Second person I have seen to predict this record for the Niners. We should remember the Niners were really a 3 win team last year, but stupid opponents and great luck gave the Niners a couple of wins. We might be a little better than this prediction, but this is not a playoff team.

    1. Yup. We were the worst 5 win team in the NFL. I wrote above (and previous column) the 49ers could make significant improvements and still wind up winning about 5 games.

    1. Wasn’t he the guy who threw the ball like the DBs were the intended receivers in the KC game in the playoffs? Elway, I am sure, saw that.

    1. The reality for teams and GM’s is that there are roughly 3500 potential players to be drafted and out of those only about 245 will get their names called and at least 20% of those 245 wont see a second season. This means that for the 32 teams drafting there are roughly 200 players that have a chance of lasting more then 1 year in the NFL.

      Yes this does illustrate Baalke’s point about the draft being a crap shoot but it also illuminates a bigger issue that I hadn’t considered before in regards to expansion of the league. What makes the draft so tough is that there simply aren’t enough qualified players for the teams. As you add more teams to the league you’re only compounding the issue.

      You’re already seeing teams adapt and adjust to the lack of players in the draft. The recent popularity of Rugby players is only the beginning I believe of a new trend of teams looking globally to fill in the gaps that the draft has been unable to fill. As the league expands and adds more teams and of course adds teams in International cities you’ll see a change to the draft that will include schools and universities from all over the world.

      I can see a week long draft of at least 10+ rounds where players from all over the world are now eligible to be the first player selected. If you think the draft is a spectacle now, heh I have a feeling we haven’t seen anything yet.

      1. Psst, CFC, have you heard about the sepaktakraw doha player from thailand who projects as a kicker, punter and potential lead singer for Journey?

      2. CFC,

        Have you heard about the sepaktakraw doha player from thailand who projects as a kicker, punter and potential lead singer for Journey?

    2. Ex,

      Barnwell is rehashing a well-known fact. I think the first meaningful analysis of draft success was done by Football Outsiders about 5-6 years ago when Barnwell was still part of that organization. Since then several analysis with more data has backed up the conclusion that volume is the single most important key to success in the draft.

      If you accept this premise than the generalized BPA approach to draft makes no sense whatsoever. What is the meaning of Best Player Available when the conclusions of the analysis of the player’s future in a given system has 50% chance of being correct?

      However, BPA for specific positions make more sense because draft analysis also shows that success rate for certain positions are far higher than others. For example going BPA on a linemen makes far more sense in the draft for positions 5-50 than, say, a wide receiver (WR in first round has one of the highest bust potential).

      I am big fan of the Bellichick and Baalke approach of going to the draft with many picks as possible. Baalke’s key problem is that he and his scouts have no feel for offensive talent.

      If the team has no clear starter at a specific position going into the draft, then the team should draft two players to double the chance of hitting on a starter.

      The QB position is unique. Data shows that the chance of drafting a starter in rounds beyond the second round drops of precipitously. After fourth round, the chances are close to zero. Even the drop off from round one to two is significant. So all these deep discussions on which late round QBs should be drafted is pointless unless one is irrationally exuberant on the potentials of career backups. If a team has no franchise QB it should draft a QB in rounds one or two every year irrespective of whether Mike Mayock or other pundits pontificate on how good (or bad) the year is for QBs.

      Draft has to be based on sound player analysis (particularly non-measurables like grit, adaptability, football instincts and ability to play through injuries — stuff scouts get from interviews with coaches, etc.) and driven solely by consideration of probability of success.

      1. Mood,

        I agree with mostly everything you wrote. Can you clarify one thing, though? Does your comment regarding teams drafting a QB in the 1st or 2nd round each year apply to every team, or only teams that feel like they don’t have a franchise QB?

        One thing to notice, and you allude to it in your discussion of QB’s, is that, while individual picks might be 50-50, the NFL, as a whole, is very good at identifying talent by round.

        Teams should do their best to identify players that fit both by round and need, but the best thing a GM can do, is have a lot of picks.

        1. Ex
          I meant that only those teams without the equivalent of a franchise QB (or a young QB on the ascendant) should draft a QB in first or second round each year.
          Bill Walsh was a proponent of drafting a QB every year irrespective of whether the team had a franchise QB or not. With the current data on NFL QBs, I think that rule could be modified for teams with established QBs. These teams should perhaps draft a QB in mid-rounds every other year rather than a QB in late rounds every year.

          1. Mood

            I could be wrong, but I don’t believe that Walsh ever took any QB after the 4th round, (unless it might have been DeBerg)…?

    1. If Baalke valued Chris Jones at 14 and Billings at 18 then the draft might go like I hope it will.

    2. Sound reasoning for
      your BR picks, and trades, Grant .. but ..

      I’ll take a small issue, with your ..
      stat-laden .. description of Blake Bell ..

      Your stats don’t take into account.. who
      was calling the plays …

      imho… if the Chipster has an ounce of
      grey matter in his noggin …

      Bell-dozer can be a very dangerous
      weapon… on the offense …

      see here=>

      1. With Hayne and his rugby skills, I can see Chip formulating multi lateral plays with Bell also in the mix.
        Niners should draft Braxton Miller to give even more pass options. Other teams will have to defend from side line to side line.

    3. Hmmm, trade back twice? Wonder who was one of the first to mention trading back while others were advocating Goff.
      How about tripling down and trade back to the 20’s. Bundle picks and move back up to the first round. Maybe after all the dust settles with players being bundled to get another second round pick, the Niners could end up with 6 players chosen in the first 3 rounds.
      Leonard Floyd would be a strong pick, but if they move back further, he may still be available. If not Floyd, Billings would be a good alternative. Even Spence, Conklin, Decker or Nkemdiche may be viable alternatives
      I like the Spriggs choice, Lasco is comparable to Prosise, but The QB choice is red flagged by punching a cop. Hogan, Driskel or Brissett may be better choices.
      All in all, this is one of your best mocks so far. I noticed that your big board contained names of many of the players we have been discussing on this site.

    4. Just like everyone predicted virtually all defensive players with some tackles thrown in. Who needs an offense? We’ll play between the two 40 yard lines and kick a field goal at the end.

    5. Grant

      Probably your best mock I have seen yet…Thank you for giving some of the options that the 49ers have in trades etc. Good piece….

    6. I have no illusions that I’ll be proven wrong on this one but I just don’t buy the hype that teams have Ramsey rated that high. I know I’m not the only one that see’s him as a safety and no safety is ever worth that high of a pick.

    7. Spriggs seems too good of a candidate to last to the second round anymore. I think there might be a mid to late first round run on OL.

    1. World Wide Echo Chamber 4, 49ers 0

      The brief quip by Eagles insider Baldinger keeps getting repeated… and repeated… and repeated…

    1. Grant, he seems like a stiff wind would blow him over. He’s the same size as Vernon Adams. But I do t know why he doesn’t get any love. Could be a good NFL development QB. Take about 2 years to learn the pro style offense. Then you never know, could be the next Mike Vick

    2. Because if you want a short(only 6′) late round prospect Matt Johnson is a far better choice. He’s my dark horse late round QB.

      1. Not a fan of Johnson. He has no velocity on his passes, so he won’t make the intermediate throws in the NFL.

        1. I don’t see it standing out in his film personally and I’m still looking but I can’t find anything out there that backs up your take on him. I’m not suggesting it’s a cannon but I think his arm is enough.

          His biggest limitation is in my mind is the competition he faced and the system he came from. He’s a clipboard holder for at least 3 seasons.

          For where he can be drafted I think he has the most upside.

              1. I’ve looked at Boykin. I’m not saying he’s a bad prospect I’m just saying Johnson is a better one. If Johnson doesn’t get drafted neither will Boykin.

    3. to possibly answer your question about Boykin:

      from CBS Sports

      A shocking arrest for striking a police officer following a fight at a bar just two days before the Alamo Bowl which would have concluded Boykin’s career at TCU has his stock in flux, making the interviews he’ll face at the Combine perhaps even more important to his potential NFL career than anything he’s shown on the field to this point.

      I wonder how those combine interviews went?

      also from CBS Sports

      Ball placement and decision-making are inconsistent with a bad habit of staring down receivers and forcing the ball into minuscule windows. Comes from a relatively simple offense which limited his reads and the types of passes in which he attempted, leaving Boykin a project as an NFL quarterback. Possesses the athleticism to potentially project to receiver or running back but has no experience at these positions.

      it looks like his off field issue(s) might be limiting him. and in combination with his limitations as a Quarterback have some scouts relegating him to a RB/WR conversion project.

  18. Grant,

    your analysis makes sense within the context of comparing last year’s 49er team to their opponent’s this year. However you have not factored in any possible improvement by the Niners. Say what you will about Kelly’s personnel decisions and player management but his offenses are usually anywhere from average to near elite. I don’t foresee an elite offense (Kelly had Desean Jackson and Lesean McCoy when his offense was near elite) but he will have a mobile QB…something his average Eagle’s offense didn’t have last year…which significantly contributed his offense going from near elite to average. The Niner’s offense last year was near the bottom of the league…so an improvement to average should do wonders for the the Niners chances at winning games. I have to think an improvement to the offense…even to league average will account for another win.

    As for the defense; last year’s was near the bottom of the league as well. The optimist in me saw some improvement by some of last year’s defensive players that can be built on. But beyond simple optimism I do not thing it’s a huge stretch that the defense will improve a little bit simply because they were ranked so lowly last year…..almost nowhere else to go but up? also, a better offense can help a defense…..though it will be interesting to see if Kelly’s high speed offense negatively impacts the defense or if they’ll play better because the offense will have put more points on the board.

  19. Les Bowen ‏- (another Philadelphia reporter) – “NFL source calls Myles Jack “a time bomb” whose knee could give him several good years, or not. Bone and cartilage starting to break away.”

    Could be true or the typical “lying season” stuff.

    1. B2W,
      Don’t teams have privy to doctors reports before the draft?
      Not sure I would base drafting an injured player off a news/sports reporter.

  20. Grant

    So, the 49ers have a full stable of healthy OL, better RBs, a healthy front-7 with 2nd year players (always a huge step btw 1st and 2nd years), an elite safety group, and an ascending group of young, fast DBs, plus a much bigger, younger, more athletic WR group, and even though they’re replacing the worst coach in the history of the NFL with a mad scientist who has redefined offense, they’re going to lose 1 more game than last season?!!!

    Crack in Oakland? Say it ain’t so.

    1. I guess your definition of elite is basic incompetency that allowed QBs to have 90 plus passer ratings. A healthy O line that still has Devey, Pears and Martin. The FA pick up graded slightly above Devey last year.
      A WR group that has done NOTHING yet. RBs who are cut couch potatoes and the starter who gets injured a lot.
      A mad Scientist who is on a downward trajectory and had last season blow up in his face. He was fired before his last game. At least Tomsula lasted the whole season.
      Last year, the defense dropped from top 5 to 29th, and had no pass rush. They let an UDFA backup run wild on them for over 200 yards.The offense set new records in futility. Of course the offense will improve, because when you are at the bottom, the only way is up.
      The Niners had a ton of cap space, but Free Agents avoided the Niners like the plague. The biggest re signing was a bust when they found out he was injured.
      Niners have 2 playoff teams to contend within their division, and the Rams will finally have a QB to go with their strong defense. Nobody is predicting the Niners will be climbing out of the cellar.
      The Niners have to play Carolina and the Pats. In fact, they have the toughest schedule in the NFL.
      I think Grant is being realistic. You however, should put down the pipe.
      I was rosily scenarioed last season, I will be a wee bit more skeptical this year.

      1. Oh, I forgot, one QB has been stabbed in the back so much, he wants to flee this dysfunctional dumpster fire, and the starter has a 5-27 record.
        The Niners missed out on the 2 best QBs in the draft, and even if they are forced to draft a mediocre QB, with their first, they will miss out on drafting one of several elite defenders.

      2. Seb,

        Chances are only one of Pears, Devey or Martin start this year. There’s a reasonable chance that none of them win a starting job. What’s your point?

          1. Pears is a competent back up and Martin is still young. As for, Devey, yes, it would be great if there wasn’t a place for him on the team, even as a back up.

            1. Martin is going into his third season. He may be young, but he’s also a veteran. It’s time for him to sink or swim.

              1. Mid,

                That’s fair, but my point is, I just don’t think it’s horrible if he’s a backup this year.

  21. If people thought Levi’s was too warm before It’s about to get Smeltering in that place.

    Haha, can’t wait. He’s going to be legit. If only we had someone who could throw him the ball.

    1. I think the Niners have more young talent in this team than most people give them credit. The question is whether the current staff can use that talent, apart from continuing to coach them up.

      1. Mood – You’re our resident Stanford expert. I don’t think I’ve seen you share your thoughts about Hogan. I think he has more talent than people give him credit for and I think he’s a real sleeper.

        1. I like Hogan. He has several of the skills, particularly the intangibles, to become an eventual starter in the league. However, he will need at least a season on the bench to continue improving his mechanics so that he doesn’t miss high on mid-range and short-range throws.

          He was a successful college QB without needing to refine his mechanics but he started on the process in February with some QB guru in SoCal I believe. He didn’t throw very well in the combine because he was early in the process.

          Personally I think he’s the third best QB in the draft in a group that includes Cook, Lynch, Prescott, and Hackenberg. I think fourth round is a likely spot for him because scouts think he’s just a decent system QB in an excellent team. If they were smart they would talk to his Stanford teammates. I rate him as a third round prospect (better potential than Garrett Grayson and Sean Mannion — 2 QBs who were drafted in round 3 in the last draft).

          1. I hope we draft him for sentimental reasons. The last Stanford QB we had brought so much excitement and I cannot believe that he will not ultimately be elected to the HOF. The second best game I ever saw was in the 1972 against the Vikings in the rain when Brodie came off the bench to rally the 49ers back from a pretty good deficit and win the game at the end with a TD pass. That win got us into the playoffs but unfortunately we blew a lead when Preston Riley booted the Cowboys onside kick. Just like now, we had those three really good years in the playoffs and then collapsed.

  22. Trevone Boykin

    Johnny Manziel

    Thad Lewis

    Why is no one talking about Boykin? I think Chip Kelly will like him.

    1. A hip injury derailed a college career that would likely have had Johnson in the discussion as a top QB prospect this year.

      For the two seasons he was healthy as a starter Matt Johnson averaged nearly 34 pass attempts per game which is nearly in line with how many times Chip likes to throw. He completed on average 66% of his passes while also throwing 71 TD’s in two years to only 15 INT’s! Not to be left out is that he averaged 9.6 yards per attempt. Yes that includes yac.

      If Kelly doesn’t mind a QB that’s ‘only’ 6′ tall, Johnson is the one he’ll like most.

          1. I don’t know, but watch him. No velocity. He only throws short and deep, and he lofts everything. Good college QB.

      1. Yeah that’s what I though and affp posted the details above. I think that is likely a big reason he is not being talked about very much. Could be an interesting late round gamble though.

  23. Meanwhile, way out in the back forty, there is a fire sale going on for Levi’s seat licenses.

    Someone play “Happy Days Are Here Again!”


    1. Actually, I don’t believe that is true due to the pricing on the SBL Marketplace… not from what I have seen over the last two years. I have an appointment tomorrow to review “upgrades” and will see what is out there (what people essentially dumped).

      1. There are supposed to be over 4K licenses on the market now. The real crunch would probably come if large numbers of individual, rather than corporate, license owners deflated on their ten year payment plan at the same time.

        From what I saw on TV last year, the most expensive seats in the sun had the most owners opting to watch on TV at the stadium. That seemed to be true even when the sun wasn’t bad.

  24. QB predictions:

    Carson Wentz: Rams, Round 1.
    Jared Goff: Browns, Round 1.
    Paxton Lynch: Eagles, Round 2.
    Kevin Hogan: Bills, Round 3.
    Connor Cook: Steelers, Round 3.
    Trevone Boykin: 49ers, Round 5.
    Brandon Allen: Broncos, Round 5.
    Cody Kessler: Cowboys, Round 6.
    Jeff Driskel: Cardinals, Round 6.
    Dak Prescott: UDFA, Cardinals.
    Vernon Adams: UDFA, 49ers.

      1. Elway has made it clear he won’t overpay a QB. I think he’ll see Brandon Allen as a pro-ready QB who fits Kubiak’s system, and the best value for the Broncos.

        1. He won’t overpay in $, but I doubt he’ll go into a season with journeymen QBs and a low round draft pick. Both the 49ers and Broncos will take a QB before day 3.

          1. If the Niners still have CK, they definitely won’t take a QB before Day 3. And I just can’t see Elway coveting Lynch or Cook.

        2. I guess that leaves the question what QB for Elway is worth it? Because he will spend on a QB. He spent top dollar on an aged and injury rehabbing Peyton Manning 4 years ago.

          I agree with your Allen assessment of his fit with Kubiak’s system. But I think he’s far from NFL ready.

            1. There is no guarantee that Kaep will do well, so Elway will draft a QB. Bronco second round pick is essentially a high third round pick.

            2. Goff may be the first pick in the draft, but Hogan beat Goff, so who is the better QB?
              I think Hogan is better than Cook, who might go in the second round.

      2. Yeah I agree with that Scooter. I can’t see the Broncos waiting longer than the second round to draft somebody and depending on who’s there, they could draft somebody with the first pick.

        The Niners are tough to predict at this point. I truly believe they like Goff, but I also believe he’s the Rams choice, so if he’s not available it’s tough to predict where they go at QB and when. Maybe Cook in the second if he falls that far, but if they don’t get one early I could see a situation where they take one late and accept the Gabbert/Kaepernick combo pack for another year.

    1. Why is Boykin a 5th rounder and Prescot and Adams are UDFAs?

      While Baalke has no problem with character issues especially for mid to later round picks; Chip has been far less tolerant. I wonder who’s player character philosophy will prevail? Ultimately it’s Baalke’s call but it’d be a pointless pick if Chip isn’t going to bother with him.

              1. PFF gives him a seventh-round grade. I can’t find a team that will draft him in Round 7.

              2. PFF isn’t the be all and end all of college scouting. Cook will go well before the 4th round.

              3. He’ll go no later than the 2nd round. You are wrong in your assessment of him.

              4. We’ve already had this conversation multiple times, Grant. Why go over it again?

              5. Ah yes. The ridiculous “conversation killer” accusation.

              6. Objects to, “Your statement is invalid.”
                Writes, “Your assessment is wrong.”

              7. I’ve already given you my reasons I think you are wrong on Cook previously, Grant.

              8. Because he completed a high percentage of his deep passes? So did Grayson. The only reason Cook was good on third down was he had time to throw. He was awful under pressure, just like Grayson.

              9. Yeah it was Scooter. If you actually paid attention to all of my posts (i.e. stalking me), you’d see that I range from posting simple comments that say I agree or disagree to posting my beliefs, various articles, and what appears to be a short essay.

              10. So… you do want to rehash all this again? I am convinced neither of us will change our opinion.

              11. I just don’t get what you see in the guy. He’s a product of his O-line. Only Hackenberg was worse than Cook under pressure.

              12. I pay attention to most people’s posts, Mid. Yours more than most, because you usually have interesting thoughts. But it wasn’t a ridiculous post because it most definitely was not an invalid argument, and you do indeed use similar types of tactics often rather than just acknowledge someone else has made a decent point. I know, because you’ve done it to me numerous times (though one could argue I don’t make decent points!).

                However, I do apologise for the snarky way I said it. That was wrong of me. Sorry.

              13. No I don’t Scooter. Your accusation was completely false, but then you turn around and do the exact thing you claimed that I do often. I’ll just leave it at that and have a good laugh.

              14. Heh, I know you don’t Grant. Go back to my scouting report on Cook and you’ll know what I see in him, even if you disagree with it.

                I also see most of the negatives you see, but for mine the things he does well make him a good QB prospect.

              15. Apology accepted, and I apologize for being snarky as well. I’m trying to work on that because I have zero interest in bringing myself down to the level that past trolls have succeeded at doing. This is supposed to be a place for 49ers fans to chat while also getting a respite from the world, and I intend to do my best to try to keep it like that for as long as possible.

              16. Heh, yeah, I won’t say it doesn’t give me pause Grant. But he really impressed me with his play on 3rd downs. Yes, he may not have always faced great pass rush on those downs, but it shows he can find ways to move the chains in pressure moments. He needs to really work on his footwork against the pass rush as that was his main issue with accuracy under pressure, but I don’t think he has an issue of panicking under pressure which is the real killer.

              17. No, he certainly doesn’t panic under pressure. But, he’s robotic, which is why he threw only 1 TD pass while under pressure last season. Robotic QBs typically do better in the Big 10 than the NFL.

              18. How can anyone that bad under pressure be a good QB prospect?

                How can anyone that lost their starting job be a good QB prospect?
                The most probable answer to both our questions is that GMs believe that they can clean up a QB prospect’s weaknesses or at least negate them so they can become quality QB.

              19. I don’t really understand what you mean by him being robotic? Are you saying he is too reliant on the system? Can’t ad-lib?

              20. He’s a stiff athlete. In the NFL, he won’t get the space he needs to operate.

              21. Hmmm, I think his poor footwork makes him look a lot stiffer an athlete than he really is.

              22. He’s horribly inaccurate unless he sets his feet perfectly and has room to throw. Nothing he can really do about that.

              23. He needs to correct his footwork. He is horribly lazy moving and setting his feet.

                Not sure how feasible that is to do at this stage of his development, but I imagine any team taking him will be looking at that as one of the key fundamentals they need to fix.

              24. No, but with better footwork in general you can be in better position to throw without setting your feet properly. His main issue with accuracy is he often wouldn’t reset his feet at all after the first read. He was throwing one way while the rest of his body was still set up to throw it to his first read.

              25. His main issue with accuracy is he doesn’t have it unless everything is perfect. Some quarterbacks can wing it with natural accuracy, others can’t. Cook can’t. He’s robotic.

              26. Prescot will get drafted in the 4th or 5th rounds. Mark it down. Dude is stone cold – nothing seems to phase that guy. Love his game.

        1. Sorry, Grant, but Boykin slugged a cop. Usually that is frowned upon.
          Even without that red flag, The link to show off his skills were unimpressive. He did have a quick release, but he had only 4 passes, and some times, the ball would sail on those swing passes. On his interception, he did not see the defender.
          On the CBS draft board, he is the 27th QB rated at 483. He will be a UDFA, not a 5th round pick.
          Brissett, Sudfield, Kessler, Driskel, Coker and Adams will be drafted before Boykin. Even Jake Ruddock and Marquise Williams will be chosen before Boykin

    2. Your predictions are God awful on a yearly basis.. It’s become comical. Kelly who values character will in no way draft Boykin or sign him once he goes undrafted.. He will change positions in the NFL.. The Niners mostly likely will get rid of kaep on draft day.. You have been saying all off season long how much the Niners love C Cook but they won’t draft him and he gets taken in the third rnd.. Cook will go no latter then early second. The QBs are getting pushed up. Your opinion waivers on a daily basis.. Then you come up with off the wall prospects. This is like D Fales, Wilson all over again..

    3. If Baalke can’t trade Kap and draft a QB in the first two rounds, he would have taken another step towards front office exit door, even though the exit may happen a couple of years from now.

    4. PFF’s 4th round grade on COOK is an outlier Grant. EVERYONE else has a 2nd-4rd round grade on Cook. And now that it appears certain that a QB is going to be selected #1 overall, it’s makes sense to assume that the rest of the QB’s are going to be pushed up a little more than we projected prior to the trade.

      Cook is going to selected no later than mid-2nd round, and most likely near the top of round 2. The chances of Connor Cook going later than round 2 are probably slimmer than the chances that someone trades into the back of round 1 to grab him.

      Most people I have talked to believe there is a decent gap between the top 4 QB’s and the rest of the QB’s in this class.

      I’m not getting back into the Connor Cook debate, other than to say that my opinion is much closer to the “consensus” opinion on Cook than your Grant. And 33-5 is no mirage!

      Also, for what it’s worth, according to the sources I trust most, CARSON WENTZ is the guy the LA Rams have fallen in love with.

      1. sorry, I meant everyone other than PFF has a 2nd-3rd round grade on Cook. He’ll go no later than mid 2nd, GUARANTEED!

    1. I do have to say Grant, I get a kick out of the fact that, when it comes to some players, you think you’re so much smarter than everyone else, and go so far off the grid with some of your analysis, it makes me chuckle.


        1. More importantly, I haven’t read or heard anyone say he’s poor under pressure, and his quarterback rating VS the blitz reflects that.

          I’m not buying into you’re silly game of statistics.

          Like I say, I watch game tape and get a feel for how a QB reacts to situations.
          Nothing about the way he reacts against pressure, is a red flag for me, or any of the “experts” I have read or watched. Often, it’s other things that I read or watch, that form my impressions.

          For example, David Igono of MATT WALDMAN’S The Rookie Scouting Portfolio, recently had some interesting things to say after evaluating Cook’s tape. He really has caught onto the same thing so many of us have. That Cook is a CONFIDENT QB, who thrives on his confidence, and is a bit of a risk taker, in a good way, because of his confidence.

          I like the term “gunslinger” to describe him, as does Connor’s OC at Michigan St.

          Here is more of David Igono’s scouting piece. There is a lot here that screams success at the next level:

          Cook is capable. Cook regularly attacks tight windows with precision. It’s always important to note what damage receivers can incur if they go for or catch a target. Cook is daring, but he’s generally very tidy with his placement. He protects his guys well. When you have a refined ability and you back it with self belief you can go at the teeth of a defense. Cook has an underrated feel for both his receivers and the coverage downfield. His knowledge of the opening and closing of windows is advanced. He thrives when he’s given time to pick his target, regardless of coverage. Again, confidence is crucial.

          Average quarterback play at the NFL level is based on sound decision-making. The majority of NFL quarterbacks regularly make good decisions. The next tier of quarterbacks turn inches and leverage them into first downs and touchdowns. Connor Cook has that intangible skill. It remains to be seen if that skill can be refined while keeping his supreme confidence intact.

          Tell me where the word robotic was mentioned by David?

          1. Cook completed 40.2 percent of his passes, threw one touchdown and two interceptions while under pressure last season, according to PFF. Only Christian Hackenberg was worse under pressure than Cook. Everything Cook does well, he does when he has time to throw.

            1. You don’t go 33-5 in the Big Ten if you can’t perform under pressure.

              Statistic can be deceiving. Michigan State doesn’t use their RB’s to check the ball down often, or run many screens. These are all things that affect your silly “under pressure” statics Grant.

              Apparently it’s a hard thing for you to understand. Not all statistics are equal. And that’s why you over reliance on statistics, rather than analyzing game film, affects your ability to evaluate talent. In other words, the types of offenses QB’s run, and the types of things they are asked to do under pressure, affect their statistics. And Michigan State’s OC, Dave Warner, explained this difference very clearly a while back, when asked to explain Cook’s statistics.

              Just go back and watch Cook play. Watch how he reacts to pressure.

              He’s the best in college football vs the blitz. He’s a quick decision maker, he’s definitely advanced at going through progressions, and his knowledge of the opening and closing of windows is also advanced.

              Mechanically, he’s got very quick feet, moves extremely well in the pocket. He’s also elusive and shows excellent escapability, and has a very, very quick release! Possibly the quickest release in this years draft class!


              And isn’t that what we are doing Grant? Projecting how well these quarterbacks will play at the NFL level?

              1. You’re gushing way too much over Cook to be taken seriously. Also, having a winning record in a tough conference does not mean a QB prospect will do just as well in the NFL.

              2. As a matter of fact, if there is one thing I could get through to you Grant, it’s that all statistics aren’t equal.

                Not only do you need to account for the type of offense a QB’s plays in, you also have to account for the types of throws a QB’s is trying to make.

                Dave Warner explained the difference between Cook and Cousins. Cook, takes a lot more chances downfield, than Cousin’s ever did. So even though the two operated in similar offenses, the differences in styles affects their statistics.

                And on the surface, Cousins may, statistically, appear to be the more accurate of the two. But, if you dig deeper, and talk to Warner, he makes you realize that Cook consistently attempted the tougher throws downfield, and into tighter windows, something your simple reliance on statistics, doesn’t really account for.

              3. I’ve watched how Cook performed under pressure. He was non-functional.

                In 2015, Cook threw 23 TDs and 5 INTS when he wasn’t under pressure, and just one TD and two INTs when he was under pressure. Almost all of his good plays came when he wasn’t under pressure, which means he’s not a playmaker. He’s a confident, robotic system quarterback who folds in the face of a pass rush.

        2. 49, believe it or not, most QBs are confident. Some are humble enough to not exude overconfidence.
          Gunslingers usually have better accuracy, otherwise they become dead. Cook may fit the latter category.

  25. QB comparisons:

    Carson Wentz: Alex Smith
    Jared Goff: Andy Dalton
    Paxton Lynch: Derek Carr
    Kevin Hogan: Ryan Tannehill
    Connor Cook: Garrett Grayson
    Trevone Boykin: Johnny Manziel
    Brandon Allen: Aaron Murray
    Cody Kessler: Brian Hoyer
    Jeff Driskel: Drew Stanton
    Dak Prescott: Tim Tebow
    Vernon Adams: Pat White

    1. Wntz has a stronger arm than Smith, Goff is more polished than Dalton, and Cook is more like Romo. Meanwhile, the Manziel is a stronger reason why teams will stay away from Boykin until after the draft, and your Tebow to Prescott lacks originality. Finally, where’s Adams?

        1. Cook needs everything around him to gel perfectly in order to excell, and the same applies to Romo.

            1. True, but Romo is still a better comparison than Grayson. He has the same playing style that thrills you in one week and then causes stomach backwash to hit your teeth in the following week.

              1. That’s also true, but Romo and both have the ability to fit the ball into tight areas and then make a costly throw later.

              2. Same here…as long as it isn’t with him being behind center for the 49ers.

    2. Carson Wentz: Phillip Rivers
      Jared Goff: Alex Smith
      Paxton Lynch: Elvis Grbac
      Kevin Hogan: Tyler Wilson
      Connor Cook: Brady Quinn
      Trevone Boykin: Tim Tebow
      Brandon Allen: Tavaris Jackson
      Cody Kessler: Kellen Clemens
      Jeff Driskel: Shaun Hill
      Dak Prescott: Donovan McNabb
      Vernon Adams: Uncle Rico

    3. And your comparison between COOK and GRAYSON …….. talk about closing your eyes and drawing names out of a hat! Cook is 2 inches taller and about 10 lbs heavier. In terms of college offenses, Grayson’s history at Colorado State, and the type of offense the Rams run is very different than Mich St.

      Colorado State runs a dink & dunk offense relying on a dizzying array of shifts, motions and formations. Grayson made a large number of throws underneath coverage and set up his receivers for yards after the catch. It was rare to see Grayson work off his first option in the route tree. Grayson doesn’t show up well as a read-and-react quarterback. And despite good agility and quickness, Grayson isn’t fluid in his drop steps.

      Cook is masterful in his drop steps. The Spartans throw over the top of coverage much, much more often than Colorado St., and Cook is advanced in terms of going through progressions, often scanning from one side to the other, going from his first, second and third read. And Connor consistently pushed the ball downfield. In terms of reading and reacting, well, Cook’s success against the blitz was very impressive, and he’s quick to pull the trigger, attempting to complete throws into NFL-type-tight-windows.

      A much better pro comparison for Garrett Grayson = Shaun Hill.

      They both have below average arm strength, and awkward throwing motions. Neither Grayson nor Hill have the tools necessary to be a long-term starters, but both guys do have the tools to be a very solid backups in the NFL.


        There’s another decent comparison, if you like comparing prospects, which I think is a bit of a waste of time!


        Much better comparison if your into the silly exercise of comparing players!

        1. I had this comparison first, but here is NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah’s Conclusion in early September, 2015:

          “Cook is one of the most intriguing players to monitor during the (2015) college season. He has a lot of tools to work with, but it’s tough to find a clear-cut comparison for him at the NFL level. The executives I surveyed offered a broad range of comps. Personally, I see him as Carson Palmer without the top-shelf arm strength. He is similar to Palmer in size, athletic ability and demeanor. This week’s game against Oregon will be heavily attended by NFL scouts and I’m anxious to see how Cook performs on that stage.”

          Well, Michigan State beat the Oregon Ducks, 31-28 that weekend, while avenging one of their 2 losses in 2014 (they also lost to Ohio State in 2014, and Ohio St. went on to beat the Ducks in the 2014 National Championship game)

          Connor Cook: 20/32, 192 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT

          Cook generally played well, and outplayed Oregon’s QB Vernon Adams, who finished the game with a 39.5 QBR compared to Cook’s outstanding 77.9 QBR.

          1. So Cook is Palmer without the arm strength and the ability to stand and deliver in the face of a pass rush. Sounds not good.

      2. Grayson threw the ball downfield on 17 percent of his pass attempts in 2014. Connor Cook threw the ball downfield on 16.7 percent of his pass attempts in 2015. Both completed more than 50 percent of their deep passes.

        1. Again, different offense. Grayson rarely worked off of his first read, and dumped the ball off a lot more often. Cook worked much deeper into his progressions.

  26. Connor Cook attempted only 10 passes that traveled more than 31 yards downfield last season, and completed just one of those passes. He doesn’t have a strong arm.

    1. I don’t believe anyone other than the Cook fans are arguing that point.

      1. There’s an entire Cook Cult, similar to the cult of Garrett Grayson last year. Grayson was on the cover of SI!

        1. I would compare Cook with Mike Glennon.
          Grayson has not seen a snap in the NFL, yet Cook will probably see time on the field like Glennon, but will eventually be relegated to the second string.
          Glennon and Cook ran the same 40 time, Grayson is faster.

          1. Get your facts straight Seb!

            NFL Combine:

            Connor Cook: 40 yd dash- 4.79, 3 Cone- 7.21
            Mike Glennon: 40 yd dash- 4.94, 3 Cone- 7.49

            Garrett Grayson is a little quicker than Cook, but a lot quicker than Glennon. Unfortunately Grayson is not a fluid athlete. Neither is Glennon.

              1. How can he not be fluid?

                Matt Waldman likens him to “a jewel thief that sneaks into your bedroom to steal the ring off your wife’s finger while she’s sleeping.”

    2. Again. you may think you’re winning this argument because you think you’re smarter than the majority of pro scouts, but the scouts have my back on this. The scouts see Cook as far more talented, and I don’t see any of them comparing Grayson to Cook, that’s for sure.

        1. Fair enough on Miller, he isn’t a Connor Cook guy, though he does have Cook on his top 100 board.

          Here is BR’s Erik Lambert’s retort in direct response to Matt Miller:

          MATT MILLER: I’m not a big Connor Cook fan. Arm is OK, struggles under pressure, accuracy is my big issue with him.

          While valid, it’s making it too easy to overlook what is right with Cook, and it’s proving to be a lot. Every time his team needs him to step up beyond their desires to play defense and run the football, he answers. As of now he’s the winningest quarterback in college football (31-3) with huge performances in both Rose Bowl and Fiesta Bowl victories.

          At 6’4″ he has good size, decent mobility, underrated arm strength and a knack for upping his game when the spotlight is brightest. Part of his accuracy problems have to do with undisciplined mechanics, something that is very coachable. Also one must not discount the fact he’s played mostly with second-rate receivers who’ve been dropping a lot of his throws.

          He’s experienced and knows how to run a true pro-style offense, something most other quarterbacks in the 2016 draft class can’t say. That includes Jared Goff who doesn’t have near the success against proven competition that Cook does. Such things must be taken into account when considering a franchise quarterback.

          There is something to be said of a player who may not have all the physical tools and perfect accuracy but does impact whether or not his team wins games. Tom Brady wasn’t the most popular quarterback among scouts but all he did at Michigan was win. The same was said of Joe Montana. That’s not to say Cook will turn out like them, but it’s proof that these lingering doubts about his validity as a top 10 pick might be nitpicking.

          Goff may have the natural accuracy teams adore so much, but when it comes to the serious business of winning and doing it against the best, Cook cannot be ignored any longer.

          1. Remember I told you a couple weeks back that Cook’s biggest mechanical flaw is probably the easiest to correct. Sounds like Lambert agrees.

          2. That last passage kills his entire retort. He went up against the best and got smoked.

            1. Let’s see….

              In the 2013 Rose Bowl: Connor Cook passed for a career-high 332 yards and hit Tony Lippett with a tiebreaking 25-yard touchdown pass early in the fourth quarter, leading No. 4 Michigan State to a 24-20 victory over No. 5 Stanford on Wednesday night in the 100th Rose Bowl Game presented by Vizio.

              In the 2014 Cotton Bowl: Connor Cook had “ice in his veins” as Michigan State scored three touchdowns in the fourth quarter on New Year’s Day to beat playoff-snubbed and No. 5 Baylor 42-41 in the highest-scoring Cotton Bowl ever.

              1. Well, the retort you were criticising, and I was defending, was written before that game MWD. As a general rule, Cook did play his best, in the biggest games.

                On that night, Cook was playing with a sprained shoulder, behind a decimated OL that gave him zero chance to set up in the pocket, and couldn’t open up a single lane for RB’s to run thru.

                Sometimes you have to know when to toss out a game.

              2. As of the time that Lambert wrote the retort, Cook was the winningest quarterback in college football (31-3) with huge performances in both his bowl games, the Rose Bowl and Fiesta Bowl victories.

              3. As of the time that Lambert wrote the retort, Cook was the winningest quarterback in college football (31-3) with huge performances in both his bowl games, the Rose Bowl and Fiesta Bowl victories.

                Against two mainly offensive oriented teams.

                Sometimes you have to know when to toss out a game.

                That’s showing nothing but a biased fan boy take. You don’t throw out any games no matter what the circumstances may have been.

              4. When a game looks like an outlier, and there are circumstances that support the fact that it is, in fact an outlier, why shouldn’t I toss it out?

                Football is a funny sport. Sometimes a game can snowball and completely get away from you. It’s a fact that Cook was playing with a sprained throwing shoulder. A lot of guys wouldn’t have played with his injury. The fact that he did play, tells me more him as a player, than the outcome of the game, watching the way Alabama absolutely manhandled the Spartan’s OL.

              5. When a game looks like an outlier, and there are circumstances that support the fact that it is, in fact an outlier, why shouldn’t I toss it out?

                Because that’s beyond foolish to do so. You don’t discount anything.

    1. Of course, Kaep is perfect to be able to run the Chip Kelly offense, however, his beef with the FO makes his staying on the team tenuous.

          1. No doubt the 49ers W-L record has the biggest impact on Baalke’s drop. However, I can assure everyone here that, up until the day Jim Harbaugh walked out the door, Trent Baalke was on his way to being considered an elite GM throughout the NFL community! He’s already won a EOTY award and has an NFC Championship trophy, and 3 straight NFC CHampionship appearances under his belt in only 6 years as GM.

            Bill Billick famously declared his belief that Baalke had moved into elite status during the 2014 draft coverage on NFL Network.

            The last 2 years haven’t exactly gone according to the script. The 2012 draft is a black eye, and some unexpected retirements have been a setback.

            No matter what, IMO, it’s the 2016 draft, just 10 days away, that is likely going to define Trent Baalke’s career.

            Drum roll please!

            1. Bleh. Baalke whiffed on an entire draft class and last year’s FAs pulled a disappearing act. This past FA period showed how the word is out and FAs avoided the Niners like the plague.
              Baalke re signed Devey. For that act alone, he should be fired.

              1. Baalke chose Aldon when Watt was available. He chose Ward and Roby went the next pick. He selected Ellington when Alshon Jeffrey was available. He chose Armstead, and Peters was the next pick. Peters became the 2015 Defensive Rookie of the Year.

              2. “He selected Ellington when Alshon Jeffrey was available.”

                Stupid Baalke! How could he draft Ellington when Jeffery was still on the board!

                Oh yeah, he wasn’t. Jeffery was drafted in 2012, and Ellington in 2014.

              3. After AJ Jenkins was picked, players like Doug Martin, Brian Quick, Coby Fleener, Courtney Upshaw, Derek Wolfe, Mitchell Schwartz, Janoris Jenkins, Amini Silatolu, Cordy Glen, Jeff Allen and Bobby Wagner were picked along with Alshon Jeffrey.

              4. Seb, nobody takes that game seriously. Looking back at the draft and playing the woulda-coulda-shoulda game is silly at best, and ignorant at worst. Playing that game will make every single NFL GM look bad.

                I think you know that. If you don’t, well, I guess it shouldn’t surprise me that much.

              5. In any assessment of a GM, his draft record should be scrutinized. Of course, every GM can miss out on elite players, but when the evidence is overwhelmingly bad, it is not a crap shoot, it is a crap fest.
                Whiffing on an entire draft class is nothing to be proud of, and should be legitimate criteria in judging his record.
                Defend the AJ Jenkins pick all you want. It just says more about your judgement and football acumen, than my panning of it does about me.

              6. Kelly would have to have Dr. Edwards live with Bryant to keep him on the field, if the 49ers had drafted him.

              7. Bleh, Jordan Devey is on a 1 year, and $600,000 contract. They can cut him tomorrow without blinking an eye. A training camp body cost nearly $500,000, so Devey is nothing more than a training camp body.

                Every year, it’s always easy to play the “when he could have chosen” game. Everyone knows, looking back in hindsight is 20/20, and not to be taken seriously. Aldon Smith was a fantastic pick who unfortunately has a sickness. Jimmie War is coming into his own and played the 2nd half of last season like a “lock down” corner, who is versatile enough to play Safety. Armstead arguably has more value than Peters, long term. Armstead was off the charts good as a rotational rookie player. Expect big things in the future on that pick! And the jury is out on Ellington, who has flashed brilliance, and was a 4th round pick.

                As a matter of fact, I think the jury is still out on a lot of players on this roster, thanks to tremendously poor coaching and game planning last season. This roster is more talented than it appeared last season, because the coaching staff, not only failed to develop them, but they also failed to put them in a position to play well and win.

                Any way you slice it, with Chip Kelly on board, and 12 draft picks, it’s the 2016 draft that will define Trent Baalke’s career, IMO. After all, he has already achieved more than a lot of guys thanks to his EOTY Award and Super Bowl roster (yes, it was a Super Bowl roster, and probably should have been a Super Bowl Championship roster).

              8. Armstead was on a 29th ranked defense while Peters played well in the playoffs. While Armstead finally got playing time, Peters shined all season. Peters definitely has more upside than Armstead.

              9. 49, if you continue to defend the re signing of Devey, I will put you in the TrollD category of cluelessness.

              10. Look who’s talking! Then again you are always talking or should I say repeating things over and over again!

              11. Uh, not necessarily. If Armstead develops into a dominant 3-4 DE, he’s probably more valuable than Peters. A true 5-Tech, 3-4 DE/DT is arguably the rarest of breeds. And if Armstead’s rookie season was an indication, he has superstar potential as a 5-Tech. So, yah, arguably more value than Peters.

                As for Devey, yes, a guy with his experience is a valuable training camp body. He’s been a starter, and is familiar with the team. $600,000 is insignificantly more than any other training camp body you will find, which will cost nearly $500,000. So why not a guy your familiar with and has starting experience? That’s the way a savvy GM sees things.

                So yah, you are wrong again Seb. Thank god you clearly have no connections to the 49ers whatsoever, other than being an armchair QB on Sunday’s and mucking up this forum 24/7.

                Trent Baalke has had more success in his 6 years in charge of Personnel than most GM’s ever have. He’ helped shape a championship roster, 3 straight conference championship appearances and a Super Bowl. And he’s done more with less than a lot of GM’s, picking at the bottom of every round for 3 of his 6 years, which is a handicap, and trying to resign players who always ask for a lot more money when they start winning, which is also a handicap.

                He hasn’t been flawless. He couldn’t pick a WR to save his life, (although I am excited about Smelter), but other than that, he’s been one of the better Gm’s in the league, and teams like the Rams, Colts, Browns, Jets, Bills, Dolphins, Jags, Raiders, Chiefs, Lions Bucs, etc, would love to have sniffed the success the 49ers have had ith Baalke as GM.

                If you don’t have an elite QB, winning is cyclical in the NFL, thanks to the salary cap, draft, and the CBA. Everyone goes through rebuilds after multiple, consecutive conference championship appearances, unless they have Tom Brady. Look at the team we should have beat in the Super Bowl, the Ravens. And they have had stability at HC and GM. How quickly did the Saints rise and fall, and they have/had an elite QB. How about the NY Giants? It’s even starting to happen to Seattle now, and they have set the gold standard for drafting and developing over the lest 5 years.

                I mean, be careful what you wish for. Trent already has a EOTY Award, and has built a championship roster, and even got to the Super Bowl, over the course of 6 season. The team was hit with bad luck during the 2015 offseason and, unless you think Jed York wanted to keep Harbaugh, don’y blame Baalke for that either.

                It’s 2016. The Niners hired Chip and Chip likes certain types of players. There was naturally going to be a lot of roster turnover in the next year or two anyways. Baalke is sitting on 12 picks, and a whole lot of cp space. And with his track record, I like our chances to,hit an upward trajectory, and get back into contention sooner rather than later..

              12. The 49ers were in scramble mode on the OL after AD left, post-draft. Devey was a reasonable gamble on a trade for a TE who was probably never going to see the field (and was subsequently cut by NE less than a month later). He should have been benched weeks earlier, in favor of Tillar. That’s on the last coaching staff.

                Look, I am not here to defend Baalke’s every move. He’s made mistakes. But I can assure you there are a lot of NFL teams who would love to have him, and he’s highly respected around the league. 2016 is make or break, and will define Trent’s career if he fails.

                2012 draft was a failure, but not a failure that set the team back much. That roster was absolutely loaded, and there were very few roster spots that were realistically available. 2016 draft is a whole other beast. Get your popcorn ready!

              13. 49reasons,

                You can’t pin it all on Baalke but he’s the key factor in the teams drop imo. His first and second drafts were his best by far, and the first one came as a late fill in for McCloughan. From 2012 on, his drafting has produced 1 PB player, which was Reid in his rookie year as an injury replacement. When you look over those drafts, there are few players selected who have panned out as even modest contributors at this point. We’ve got Reid, Lynch and Dial who have become solid starters from those drafts. Then we have the guys who have shown they can be good but haven’t been able to stay healthy – Ward and Hyde. That’s 5 players in 4 drafts who have shown on the field that they can be solid to good starters. There is hope for Armstead and Tartt as they showed flashes of good play last year, but the jury is still out on their viability as every down players.

                That is not the work of a good GM/Personnel chief. This is a direct correlation between where the Niners were and where they are now. Baalke has to hope his 2015 class really comes on this year because if it doesn’t and we are forced to move on to the 2016 as the class we are counting on, then he should not have a job next year.

              14. I am not putting Hydes health on Baalke. Borland was a steal, again, not on Baalke. Dontae Johnson becomes a starter this year. Ward and Tartt give the 49ers flexibility. And we simply don’t yet know how well the 2014 and 2015 drafts will end up. Way too early to judge the impact of both those drafts.

                So, as a recap:

                2010 – fantastic
                2011 – great
                2012 – aweful
                2013 – mixed bag
                2014 – incomplete
                2015 – incomplete

                Executive of the Year Award – Check
                NFC Championship winning roster – Check
                3 Straight NFC Championship appearances – Check

              15. And, while Baalke doesn’t get a pass for his 2012 misstep, I can understand why it went bad. Incredibly deep roster forced Trent to change his usual strategy, away from BPA.

                Anyways, that’s my opinion of the 2012 draft.

              16. 2013-2015: 26 players drafted over the course of those 3 years remain on the roster!

                26 ….. Wowza. That’s well above average!

              17. Means nothing other than that is the best Baalke could find. If you don’t have a lot of core talent then you are going to keep most of your draft class. It’s the quality of the players that means everything. Baalke has failed miserably in that regard.

              18. So what your saying, is even though Balkee had those good drafts, he gets no credit because it was the coaching. But because of that terrible 2012 draft he gets all the credit, therefore making him incompetent. Choose wisely young man, you can’t have it both ways.

              19. Not sure who you are responding too, but Baalke deserves credit for 2011 and some for 2010. He also deserves credit for the 2 drafts after that were poor, and the latest 2 of which 2014 does not look all that promising.

              20. That promising? According to who. That was a good 2014 draft. Especially for a team in rebuild mode. You have 8 starters from that draft still on this team and contributing. Another retired for health. I think you are being harsh on that draft

              21. Where in the world do you get 8 starters from? Ward, Hyde, Martin, Lynch and Acker are the only full time starters out of that group. Of the 5 Ward and Lynch are the only ones who have made any impact. Hyde has been injured and Martin and Acker haven’t performed well. Dontae Johnson has a chance to start next year, but is a question mark at best.

                Don’t confuse players being on the roster with having a good draft. As I already pointed out above, few of the players drafted the past 4 years have made much of an impact and only one has made a probowl.

              22. I’m not confused at all. Those are very good football players. What we had in 2011 was the exception not the rule. Rarely to you ever have multiple pro bowlers in a single draft. And in those draft how many make pro bowls in years where they are not the starter. Ward, Hyde, and Lynch could easily be future pro bowlers

              23. Rocket, you know a lot of these GM’s are working off similar boards, right? How do not know the 49ers coaches aren’t mostly to blame for poorly developing these young players? We don’t. It’s obvious the coaching wasn’t up to snuff last year, and probably with every coach having one foot out the door the prior season, not great in 2014 either. And we know Harbaugh and Fangio HATED playing young players, which helps developmentally.

                When I think of a GM screwing up, it’s along the lines of:

                1) drafting a busted player with a top 5 or top 10 pick
                2) making a boneheaded trade or 2, or 3, that sets a team back and could easily have been avoided
                3) leaving the team both devoid of talent, while either devoid of picks, or low on cap space, or both

                AJ Jenkins was a first round bust, and Baalke went well outside of scouts consensus (and most teams draft boards) with that pick. That was a bad pick, however, as bad as it was, it was @ 30, which is almost almost a 2nd round pick. As far as the current roster, Trent has wheeled and dealed this team to a large quantity of picks, while also keeping the salary cap under control.

                At some point you got to start pointing fingers at development. The Seahawks consistently grade out poorly right after the draft, only to develop guys nobody has ever heard of, into solid, if not great starters.


              24. I don’t care what other GM’s are doing; I care about the 49ers and the fact they are heading in the wrong direction. Hey I hope you’re right and it is all based on poor Coaching, but Coaching doesn’t fix strentgh, intelligence and desire. If some of the underachieving players take a step forward this year, fantastic, but based on where we are and what we’ve seen, the drafting has not been good.

              25. What has he done to warrant it? I already listed it rocket, whether you want to acknowledge it or not.

                – 26 players still on the roster, drafted over the last 3 years
                – Executive of the Year, a Super Bowl appearance (meaning an NFC Championship roster)
                – 3 straight NFC Championship appearances in 6 years. WOW!
                – acquired 12 picks for the 2016 draft
                – excellent position in terms of salary cap

                What casual fans like you don’t realize rocket, is how highly thought of Baalke is with the NFL community. And, like I said, most of these teams have very similar draft boards. Most of these players that haven’t produced were rated similarly on other teams boards. And he’s done more with less than a lot of GM’s, picking at the bottom of every round for 3 of his 6 years, which is a handicap. You also have to take into account what happens to your roster when you start winning consistently? Everyone wants to get paid. That’s also a handicap.

                Baalke hasn’t made many of the big mistakes that make you go “wow, he sure messed that up”. He’s made some mistakes, but all GM’s have. The draft truly is a crap shoot, by and large. Very few, sure things coming out of college.

                Again, if a lot of it isn’t coaching and development, why is it so hard to grade a draft until 2-3 years after the fact? Think about that.

              26. I honestly cannot believe how fickle fans can be. The guy puts together a team that goes to 3 straight NFC Championships, wins EOTY, and a couple years later he sucks.The funny thing is, if Harbaugh doesn’t call a timeout in the waning seconds of Super Bowl XLVII, we aren’t even having this conversation.

                What happened to Ozzie Newsome and the Baltimore Ravens? They kept their Super Bowl coach, you know, the other harbaugh. And where has that got them. Did Ozzie simply forget how to draft or sign players?

                No rocket, he didn’t. It’s the difficulty, brought about by the CBA, the NFL Draft, and the Salary Cap, that makes it almost impossible to sustain success in the NFL, without an elite QB. That’s simply the facts. When you’re drafting near the bottom of every round, and guys want to get paid, because you’ve been winning, and guys want to retire early because they’ve become content, that’s where the difficulty lies. Who do 49ers fans want to bring in if Baalke gets fired? Mike Holmgren? Come on man.

              27. They are headed the wrong direction. Every team that rebuilds heads that way. The question is, how long will it take to get in the right direction. It’s only year 2… Might be one more bumpy ride

              28. Just dont call him the EOTY, since most of the credit should go to JH, who took an under performing team and made it to 3 NFCCGs.

              29. Well, Trent Baalke has a great pick trophy and a plaque in the HOF that says otherwise Seb.

                Yes, it took a good coach to get the talented roster to play to it’s potential, but I don’t know anyone looking at their 2012 and 2013 teams, and didn’t see a Super Bowl worthy roster.

                The 49ers were, arguably, the most talented roster in the NFL over the course of at least a couple years. The fact that Jim H. didn’t win a Super Bowl, with such a talented roster, weighs just as heavily as getting his team to play to it’s potential.

              30. Rocket… Explain to me please, what is the markings of a “Good GM/ Personnel Chief”. And then point one out in the NFL, and I’ll point you all the misdirection that you are giving Balkee. I’m not saying the man is perfect but a win is a win draft wise (2010-2011) and a loss is a loss (2012). But because you guys use hindsight to try and prove points doesn’t make a so. There are 31 other teams that missed on said players. But since there is no reasoning with angry fans, I’ll just look at it like this, if you were a fan of any other team besides the broncos this year, their GM would be getting g the same treatment. Oh well, to each his own!!

              31. Steele,

                I don’t care what other teams are doing, but if I did go through every teams draft I bet I would find most have produced more quality over the last 4 years than Baalke anyway.

                I don’t get the protectionist attitude toward Baalke. What has he done to warrant it? As I already pointed out, his success in recent drafts has been spotty at best and incompetent at worst. He feuded with one of the most successful HC’s in NFL history and replaced him with one of the worst. Sure we can pin some of that on Jed too, but Baalke is the guy who is running the football side of this team and is in complete control of the roster. If you don’t want to put a lot of the blame on Baalke, then who are you putting it on?

              32. Rocket… I highly and seriously doubt you will find better GM’s records the last 4 years.. And there is no pertection. Your just hatin. And I’m giving the other side. There is no blame. Harbaugh aside, this team was destined for rebuild because of there upcoming cap. This roster was inevitable. And according to sources, he wanted gase( I dont think he would have done any better than Tomsula with this roster especially a team full of 1st and 2d year players) Jed wanted Tomsula. So you ask who is to blame, young man I blame time. It was time. Harbaugh took over a talented team in their prime. They had 3 great years. They were built together. Worse thing about it, they couldn’t keep them all and we didn’t have the qb in the Tom Brady class. You put any other qb on the pats and I bet their run would have ended years ago. So sir I blame time. Especially without a legit QB. It was meant for our roster to be gutted and put back together.

    1. Cajuste would be interesting, but I see him as a tweener WR-TE. I like Jordan Payton (and not just because I graduated from UCLA). Runs great routes, good hands, ability to get the ball on deeper routes. And somehow ran a 4.4 40 at his pro day.

  27. I am rethinking the trade back scenarios, and now think that the Niners should trade back with the Titans because they have 3 second round picks.
    Niners should trade back the 7th for the Titans 15th, second round (45) and third round (76) picks. If that is too costly, maybe the Rams 2017 third round pick that the Titans acquired, instead of the number 76 pick.
    Then the Niners should trade back with Indy who will want to leapfrog over Detroit to select the next best O lineman. Niners should trade their first, fifth and sixth round picks for the Colts first and second round picks (18th and 48th)
    Finally, the Niners should try to trade back with the Bengals, who want to leapfrog over the Texans and Steelers who mocks have been projecting they draft WRs. With their FA losses, the Bengals will want to also draft a WR. Niners should offer the 18th pick for the Bengals first and third round picks (24th and 87th)
    Therefor, by moving back to the 24th spot, the Niners would acquire the 45th, 48th, 76th and 87th picks. They would also lose the 145th and 207th picks.
    In total, the Niners would have pick numbers- 24, 37, 45, 48, 68, 76, 87, 105, 133, 142, 174, 178, 211 and 213.
    In total

    1. My final moves will be to trade Quinton Patton, Corey Lemonier and Bruce Miller to the Chargers for the 35th pick.
      They should also trade Brandon Thomas, Dujuan Harris and Kaleb Ramsey to the Colts for their next year’s second round pick.
      Coupled with the trade of Gabbert to the Jets for the 20th pick, the Niners would accrue pick numbers 20, 24, 35, 37, 45, 48, 68, 76, 87, 105, 133, 142, 174, 178, 211 and 213.
      They would have 9 picks in the first 3 rounds, plenty enough to rebuild the team for the next season and years to come.

      1. Seb – that’s a lot of trading back. I’m not sure I trust Baalke to do anything special with all those extra draft picks.

        As an alternative, the 49ers could trade up – possibly with Cleveland – to grab either Goff or Wentz.

  28. Week 1 starter predictions:

    Rams: Carson Wentz
    Browns: Robert Griffin
    Eagles: Sam Bradford
    Jets: Brian Hoyer
    Broncos: Ryan Fitzpatrick
    49ers: Colin Kaepernick

    1. Niners should trade Gabbert to NY for their number one pick. Then with the trade backs, they would have numbers 20,24 in the first round.
      Then they could possibly draft Leonard Floyd and Taylor Decker in the first round.

      1. I think the Jets will figure out a way to draft Paxton Lynch, who fits Chan Gailey’s spread offense.

        1. Jets want to get into the playoffs. Hoyer or an unproven rookie will probably not get them over the hump.
          Gabbert is a starting QB and did a lot better when he had a supporting cast. Jets just need a competent QB that does not throw picks late in the season.

          1. If the Jets wanted the best veteran available, they would have signed Fitzpatrick already. I think they’re targeting Lynch. He’s a good fit for their offense.

              1. (Actually not a paste. I typed it. Not sure why I wrote paste.)

                If the 49ers like Lynch, a trade back or up scenario might work. It (might) prompt the Jets to hang onto Fitzpatrick, taking two QBs out of the running for the Denver QB job at the same time.

                Trade – 37+68+2017 4th for Bills 19. Choose Lynch

                Trade – CK+178 for Denver’s 63
                Trade – 145 for some awful teams 2007 4th

            1. However, Gabbert fits perfectly under their salary cap, and then they can pay Wilkerson instead of having to shop him.

            1. Well, if a team can trade 2 firsts, 2 seconds and a third for an unproven rookie, Gabbert may garner a first because he is the starting QB with many positives.
              At least he is not a benched second stringer who others accuse of quitting on the team, does not study, and one who lost the locker room.
              Niners want a second round for that guy, so Gabbert could be worth a first, especially with his modest salary that is extremely cap friendly.

  29. LA Times live mock. Maiocco takes Buckner at 7.

    1. Rams – Wentz (Made my day)
    2. Browns – Goff (they got their guy)
    3. Chargers – Ramsey (lucked out)
    4. Cowboys – Bosa (makes sense)
    5. Jags – Jack (now considered a gamble pick?)
    6. Ravens – Tunsil (really lucked out)
    7. 49ers – Buckner (Dial-Armstead-Buckner = “The Batdown Cave”)
    8. Eagles – Elliot
    9. Bucks – Hargreaves
    10. Giants – Floyd
    11. Bears – Robinson
    12. Saints – Rankins
    13. Fish – Alexander
    14. Raiders – Jackson
    15. Titans – Stanley (Lucked out. Perfect draft for them so far)
    16. Lions – Lawson
    17. Ragland
    18. Colts – Decker
    19. Bills – Spence
    20. Jets – Lynch (one less QB in the running for Denver.)
    21. Washington – Billings (Great pick)
    22. Texans – Colman
    23. Vikings – Treadwell (40s? We don’t need no stinkin 40’s!)
    24. Bengals – Doctson
    25. Steelers – Apple

    (26-31 in progress)

    Baalke, trade 37 up for Lee or your fired!

    1. 26. Seahawks – Conklin (good need and value pick)
      27. Packers – Lee (Mathews + speed kills)
      28. Dodd – Chiefs
      29. Cardinals – Kelly. (Iupati’s sidekick)
      30. Panthers – Ogbah
      31. Broncos – Nkemdiche (Elway do to list… replace Jackson, call Trent, schedule press conference)

      1. If the Niners traded back 17 picks to 24, they could pick either Conklin, Lee, Dodd, Ogbah, Kelly or Nkemdiche. Maybe with Lee and Conklin picked earlier, Billings may be available.

  30. Here ya’ go Rocket - CK ,AD’s rights, Bethea and a couple a picks and we are there( heard something about 4-20 happening early…)!

  31. Kelly better figure out a way to get this team into the playoffs. These extended off seasons are tough. Just about every subject has been beaten into jerky and we haven’t even reached the summer.

  32. I don’t get the DeForest Buckner hype. Like Armstead, Buckner won’t start as a rookie. Teams would run right at him. He’ll be a interior pass-rush specialist at first. That’s not a top-10 pick. That’s a top-20 pick.

        1. That’s what I thought. Buckner is looked at as a 5 tech so he would just duplicate Armstead.

          They need to Jack.

    1. I don’t get the DeForest Buckner hype. Like Armstead, Buckner won’t start as a rookie.

      Look up Buckner’s measurements and how scouts are saying he has as high a ceiling as Armstead but is further along in terms of development.

    2. They are almost the same player. That is why I have been resistant to the idea of drafting him. Same type of player, body type, position and they played at the same school. We need a selfless, strong bodied 3 Tech to take on double teams and free up the pass rusher. That was the brilliance of Justin Smith.

      1. The player that most reminds me of Justin Smith in this draft is Joey Bosa. I don’t know if he can add the weight necessary to move inside and be effective like Smith did, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he can over time as he is already very strong, has great technique and moves well laterally. If for some reason he fell to #7, he could be a great pick up.

        1. Good observation Scooter. My concern about Bosa has been in regards to a conversion to a 3-4 OLB. I don’t think that fits his skill set, but what you have mentioned here is a definite possibility. He is very strong already and has the mindset needed I think. He’d have to add some weight but he’s got the frame to do it. He could probably be an excellent 3 in this defense if he committed to it.

    1. He was being guarded by Jack Conklin (74), sometimes single and sometimes double. DB was challenged. Conklin impresses me.

  33. On Rotoworld:

    “CBS Sports’ Jason La Canfora reports the relationship between the 49ers and Colin Kaepernick remains in tatters.

    “Literally nothing at all has occurred to in any way repair this broken marriage,” are La Canfora’s exact words. Per La Canfora, the Broncos aren’t budging in trade talks because they believe Kap could ultimately be released as part of an injury settlement. The draft continues to act as a de facto deadline to wrap the saga up. “

  34. I know you think PFF’s 4th round grade is fairly accurate for Connor Cook.

    The reason I give you a hard time Grant, is because you will take one source, and ignore every other source in favor of one. You seem to truly believe you are smarter than the NFL community at large, and, I don’t know, maybe you are, but my money is on the tens of millions of dollars worth of resources NFL teams are using to evaluate players.

    For example, CBS Sports NFL insider, JASON La CANFORA, who I can assure everyone on this forum, has many, many sources high within NFL circles. Here is something he wrote lately:

    “After spending a week sniffing around on the situation, and speaking with numerous accomplished evaluators who don’t have a dog in this fight (i.e. they are not going to be taking a quarterback on the first two days of this draft), I am more convinced than ever that Cook is going to be selected higher than many would want you to believe.”

    “The kid with the NFL frame and the most decorated college passer of the bunch who played against the best competition of the group and won the most games of any of them (and in the history of his school) and who stayed out of trouble during five years on campus and led his team to the College Football Playoff this winter and won the Johnny Unitas award is getting virtually no pub and flying completely under the radar. Meanwhile, every visit or move the other quarterbacks make is seemingly being dissected by the media, scouts, general managers and coaches. Interesting.”

    “Looks like a classic case of teams hoping a prospect is there for them to pounce on, of them publically sleeping on someone who has caught their eye, and of them being perfectly content to do whatever they can to ensure that perception — “he’s maybe the fourth-best quarterback in the draft” — becomes reality. Only I’m not buying that it plays out that way, and neither are several NFL people I trust.”

    “There is at least one team mulling a move up from the second round to the late first round to grab Cook if he is there. Several teams — again, teams who are not going to be drafting passers high enough to grab Cook — have him rated the second-best quarterback in the draft on their boards, according to league sources — and Cook’s itinerary has been as full as any of the quarterbacks in this draft. In all likelihood, he is not going to go in the top 10, as Goff and Wentz very well may, but I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see him be the third quarterback selected, and for that pick to come in the first round.”

    “We like him, we like him a lot, actually,” said an executive from a team that has Cook as the second-best quarterback in the draft. “We have him right up there with the other two or three (quarterbacks), actually even higher than a few of them. We like the kid a lot. We don’t think there is a whole lot separating some of these quarterbacks and Cook is the most ready to play. Goff, look at his tape against Utah, it’s not pretty. And Wentz, there is a lot to like there, but he needs to go somewhere and sit for a year or two and develop. If Cleveland takes him at two that is going to be a disaster. There aren’t any sure things at this position — really at most of the skill positions in this draft — and Cook is definitely high up in that quarterback mix for us.”

    Another scout who has spent abundant time on the quarterbacks in this draft said:

    “We’re not going to end up taking him, but there are plenty of people in our building who like him as much as the other two. I don’t see him going in the top 15 picks, but after that he is in play. There is a lot to like there, he played in a pro-style offense, he can handle the big stage. He has some things he needs to tighten up and work on — like all of the quarterbacks in this draft — but overall I like him. Cook has some impressive qualities, for sure.”

    Now, I know you blow off JON GRUDEN’S expertise, without as much as blinking an eye, but what about LaCanfora’s sources Grant? What is your response to this?

    I say Cook goes late 1st, early 2nd. What’s your best guess Grant, because I want you on record on this?

      1. OK, he’s going early round 2. I think you have changed your tune on that one.

        And he’ll be a bust.

        OK, Got it!

          1. Oh, So no other team in the NFL, despite what La Canfora and others are reporting, like Cook before round 3, other than the Browns? Is that right, and is that what you are hearing from your sources?

              1. So this quote of La Canfora’s is false?

                “There is at least one team mulling a move up from the second round to the late first round to grab Cook if he is there. Several teams — again, teams who are not going to be drafting passers high enough to grab Cook — have him rated the second-best quarterback in the draft on their boards, according to league sources”

                Why would Cook be an overreach before round 3, if several teams have him rated the second best QB in this class, which I believe is absolute truth?

              2. Bills or Texans might select him with a third round pick since they have questions about their QBs.
                Taylor may not stay healthy and BO has 7 starts in his career.

  35. The only difference between Christian Hackenberg and Connor Cook is the offensive lines they played behind.

    1. Well, we don’t really know because of Hackenberg’s absolute inability to adapt to a new offense after O’brien left for Texas.

      1. Hackenberg had no time or space to throw. Connor Cook had a ton of time and space to throw. He will have much less of both in the NFL.

        1. I hear Hackenberg’s main problem was with his difficulty transitioning to Franklin’s spread-like offense as opposed to the traditional pro-style schemes used by O’Brien?

          Yes, he definitely played behind a poor OL, and that was definitely a factor. But not the biggest factor.

          From what I heard, Hackenberg’s whole personality changed after O’brien left. Christian hated the spread offense because he lost the freedom to change plays at the line of scrimmage, which he absolutely thrived on. Also, he’s a classic pocket passer, and isn’t fleet of foot enough to run Franklin’s spread offense effectively.

  36. 5 and 11:

    Lose all but one division game 1 and 5
    Ten non-division games:
    Top five: 1 and 4
    Bottom five: 3 and 3

    Niners aren’t good enough yet to do a team by team analysis, looking for wins and losses. That’ll come after they are competitive in their division.

    They’ll get swept by SeaChickens and Cardinals; and the Rams’ coaches make a blunder in one of the games.

    Of the remaining games, Niners win 20% of games against the better teams (of the ten); and split the rest. I rounded up because I’m a fan.

    I’d take 2 – 14 over 5 and 11 if both of the 2 wins were against Seattle.

  37. If Goff gets past the Brown we should take him if not we should trade up for Jack or Tunsil cuz they are 2 future Pro bowlers

  38. If the 49ers chose Bosa should he be an OLB or play inside?

    Justin Smith was a 4-3 DE that moved inside with great success.
    Aldon Smith was a college 4-3 DE that moved to OLB.
    Tank was a 4-3 college 4-3 DE that tanked when moved inside.

    I was thinking he’s a 4-3 DE that would be moved to OLB in the 49ers system. On last night’s Better Rivals they talked about Bosa’s ideal scheme fit. Now I’m not so sure.

            1. Which is why I’m clarifying because Bosa would be a weak side DE. Justin and most of our w.s. DE’s play from the 4/5 on out. Maybe i’m splitting hairs but I wouldn’t consider going from the 6 spot where many college 4-3 ends rush from to the 4/5 as ‘moving in.’

              Not trying to bash the question or comment just trying to clarify so I can answer it.

  39. Reports say the Chargers are getting multiple inquiries from top 10 draft board teams about the 3 pick.

    I’m guessing its Tunsil or Ramsey. I can see Ramsey if he was a “true” shutdown corner. By “true” I mean a guy that can shut down the other teams best receiver with no safety help. Not just a really good corner. A rare corner player that can free up a safety to play in the box.

    If that’s Ramsey, he could be worth a trade up.

    I hear he’s going to be very good. Gifted. Versatile. Long. Fats. I’m not hearing shut down.

  40. I think you can say with near certainty that the following players are now off the board; Wentz, Goff and Tunsil.

  41. Starting to feel certain that at ‘least’ 4 QB’s will be taken in the first round. With Wentz, Goff and Lynch being 3 of them who’s the most likely to be the 4th? Or is it Cook that is the certain one and Lynch the contender for the 4th spot? Who are the dark horse candidates to sneak into the first round? Gruden’s Hackenberg? CFC’s Prescott?(that’s right) Grant’s Hogan, Brissett, Driskel?(hard to keep up with which one he actually likes)

    The Browns are loaded to easily jump back in and grab one and I think that’s exactly what they’ll do. I imagine another team might do the same. We could even see a 5th taken by a later round team that uses it’s own pick.

    1. “We could even see a 5th taken by a later in the round team that uses it’s own pick.”

      1. I’d be surprised if Hackenberg leapfrogs Lynch. There’s too many negatives against the kid. I believe there’s also an article talking saying teams that interviewed him didn’t like his answers. I’ll have to try and find that article later.

        1. No need, I recall reading something to that effect. But I think teams like the Jets, Broncos and Cowboys could prefer more traditional pocket passers over Lynch.

  42. The Eagles have really cut their nuts off for the next couple of years’ drafts. Hope they pick the right QB.

    1. Chip’s starting to look competent next to these guys in Philly as GM. To me both the Ram’s and Philly’s trades seem really inadvisable. Philly already has around $22 mil locked up in QB’s and they’ve jettisoned a boat load of players on both sides of the ball. It would seem they have higher needs other than QB’s. Are they the next 49ers choosing poorly on the rebound?

      Is it a forgone conclusion they’re picking a QB?

            1. In that scenario unless the Broncos are giving up something silly it’s in the Eagles best interest to just keep him.

          1. Denver only has $9.1 in cap space based on their top 51 numbers. Even if Philly were to eat the signing bonus the Broncos would only be left with ~ $2.5 mil headed into the draft. Not very likely that it would happen.

              1. Yes they have clauses in Thomas’s, Harris’s and Talib’s contracts that allows them to defer salary for a year. Even possibly Ward’s contract. It kills them for next year. I imagine they’ll trade a defensive player around the draft to make space.

              2. Of course, and they’ll likely have to anyway in order to sign their entire draft class since that Top 51 number is 2 players short of the roster amount.

              3. Still think the best move is for the Niners to trade Gabbert to Denver. It makes Kaep stay, and Gabbert will fit under their salary cap easily.
                With all the blockbuster moves, Gabbert should command a first round pick since Philly just gave up 5 picks, including 2 first round picks.

        1. CFC made my point. Broncos can’t afford CK right now, there’s no way they can afford SB. The guys here in Denver keep talking about Kubiak longing for a mobile QB for his system. Bradford’s not really that guy.

      1. I’d say, look for the Eagles to go QB. Bradford will be their starter this season while the rookie watches.

          1. True, but they also sunk $22 guaranteed into him so he’ll be the guy initially. Basically he’s an expensive placeholder.

            1. Both the Rams and Philly just blew up the draft compensation chart. I think they went brain dead to spend so many picks.

            2. Did you have a hard time typing that with a straight face or did you forget the sarcasm font? ;)

  43. At the risk of raising the ire of some on the board, I’m going to piece together info to draw another conclusion.

    Latest reports have the Rams taking Goff.

    Goff and Wentz share the same agent.

    Philly didn’t wait until draft night to see who the Rams took before trading up.

    Tells me the Rams have told Goff’s agent he’s the pick and then somebody told the Browns, leading the Browns to look for a trade down because Goff is the guy they wanted. The Eagles then talked to the Rams or Goff/Wentz’s agent and confirmed Goff was the pick, then traded up because they want to take Wentz.

    Truly remarkable to see two trades of this magnitude in one draft.

        1. Not really. Philly wanted a QB. They know one is going to LA. They want to make sure they get the other.

          More importantly, these moves make it even more possible that the 49ers can fill in one of their two biggest holes, OL or ILB. Suddenly Tunsil and Jack are more likely in play.

          1. There was more said in that post than the Eagles want to make sure they get one of the top two QB’s.

            The 49ers are likely to wind up with an excellent defensive prospect which is positive, but I think there is a very good chance they wanted a QB.

            1. Baalke upon hearing of the Eagles move, “Perfect”. Wasn’t surprised in the least. Applying common sense would lead one to believe Baalke was never in pursuit of a quarterback with his first overall selection. After all, there are two starting quarterbacks on the roster in Kaepernick and Gabbert. Baalke will more than likely target a quarterback later in the draft, but to ever believe he was in hot pursuit of one in the first round, could be considered folly….

              1. Baalke doesn’t even know where Kaepernick is, only that he’s somewhere in Colorado.

              2. Happens all the time with rock stars. Bruce Dickinson thought he woke up in Cleveland, until they hit a wall of traffic on the freeway and he quickly surmised he was in Chicago….

              3. Razor,

                The Niners were one of the teams rumored to be interested in trading up and worked out Goff 3 times, the last being yesterday. It’s not folly to suggest they were interested. They were definitely interested. They just weren’t willing to go as far as the Rams did.

                BTW it’s nice to see you back. Hope all is well.

              4. Rumors are inherent in every NFL draft, because the more that isn’t said, the more they start….

              5. It’s more than rumors Razor. They met with Goff and worked him out 3 times in addition to the combine. You can deny it all you want, but there was interest.

              6. It behooves them to do so. They have an obligation to exercise every tool at their disposal to gather information on a potential adversary….

              7. Not to mention enhance the possibility of a rival team shooting from the hip before their gun clears their holster. Tends to end up shooting themselves in the foot….

              8. Sorry Razor but on Goff, I have to say I told you so. I can’t even imagine how things are going to be around here if he goes to the Rams and becomes a top ten QB like I think he can.

              9. Goff would be a poor fit for the Rams, because he has no experience under center. He’ll be running their play action offense with Gurley. To make matters worse, they hired a new receivers coach who’ll need to scheme to get them open because they can’t get separation….

              10. Rocket,

                I’ve seen reports that still have Wentz going to the Rams.

                I can’t imagine how things are going to be on here if it turns out Goff doesn’t go to the Rams…

          2. Now if Jed hadn’t hocked his soul to the devil for two missed field goals, the 49ers would be drafting third.

  44. With the Rams and Philly trading up to the number 1-2 spots, it becomes apparent that these teams feel confident that Wentz and Goff are worthy of elite status.

    I believe that these teams have done us a great favor by positioning themselves at 1 and 2 because now it takes the pressure off Baalke in having to choose one of these QB’ that in my opinion might have been picked out of the top 10 in any other year.

    I think the Baalke will now package a deal and moves out of #7 for someone later in the 1st rd and perhaps garner another pick in the 2nd or 3rd rd.
    Paxton Lynch could be a viable pick later in rd 1, and we could use the extra pick in either rd 2 or 3 to get some defensive help.
    I said it two months ago and will say it again, this is one of the deepest drafts for defensive players well into the 3rd rd that could provide immediate help.
    One thing is certain, we’ll all have plenty to post about two weeks from now.

    1. AES, I totally agree. Rams and Philly did the Niners a huge favor. Now the Broncos cannot be cheap with draft picks when the others have traded multiple first round picks for untested and unproven rookies.
      I think both blockbuster deals smacks of desperation and they way overpaid.

    2. AES,

      I believe that these teams have done us a great favor by positioning themselves at 1 and 2 because now it takes the pressure off Baalke in having to choose one of these QB’ that in my opinion might have been picked out of the top 10 in any other year.

      You are entitled to that opinion but it flies in the face of what has transpired here. The idea that these two wouldn’t be top ten picks or first rounders at all as some have tried to pass off around here, is ignoring the fact that two teams have just traded a boat load of picks to move up and take them. You don’t do that if the QB’s are not viewed as Franchise players. The need for QB’s is always there, but you rarely see 1 team make a deal like this, let alone 2.

      1. I still firmly believe both teams are drafting good but not great QBs. To me this is a trickle down effect of the crazy contracts being given to mediocre starting QBs. Teams are willing to pay a lot for competence at the position.

        1. So, do you think teams put actual cash values on their draft picks? If they do, then this would explain why so many draft picks were given up. It would also mean that the inflation in the dollar value of picks is not keeping up with free agency inflation. That might be explained by the fact that FA provides “proven” NFL players whereas the draft provides “proven” college, but not necessarily NFL players.

          1. That’s not really what I meant. Just that the contracts being given to mediocre QBs shows how desperate teams are to find a competent QB. And the high price paid in the open market is now trickling down to a high price being paid in draft capital, too. In a passing league, demand for competent QB play is high.

        2. I know you do Scooter and we won’t know how good these guys are until they actually play, but as of now, the NFL views them very highly.

            1. Not really. Both have moved on from their original teams and signed with new ones who have cap room. QB’s are over paid obviously, but giving up multiple high end draft picks is a whole other story.

              1. The Texans are paying Osweiler almost the same amount they are paying JJ Watt, arguably the best player in the NFL and probably the best defensive player in the NFL. The Eagles and Redskins are paying Bradford and Cousins, respectively, more than that. QBs that have shown some level of competency in the NFL are valued very, very highly.

                As a result, teams overpay for the hope of competent QB play. And I think the same thing is happening in the draft this year. Obviously the hope of both teams is Goff/ Wentz are more than competent, but I believe the expectation is they are getting themselves a long term solution at QB, a guy that can provide good, solid QB play, but not necessarily an expectation they are getting a great QB.

                That is where the NFL is at the moment. Finding good, solid QBs is hard, and both teams that have traded up have had a difficulty finding a long term solution at QB for a number of years.

              2. This is similar to the discussion of a few days ago when you posted Mayock’s opinion at the end. You don’t give up premium draft picks unless you are convinced the player you are trading up for is a Franchise guy. It doesn’t happen Scooter and I know you know that. Draft picks are sacred in this league. No team is risking mortgaging their future just in the hopes they get a long term solution with good solid play. They are betting these players will be the catalyst to changing their teams fortunes.

                I’m not saying it isn’t risky, it absolutely is and if Goff and Wentz don’t work out, the Rams and Browns have booked themselves a ticket to rebuild infinity. The only reason you do something like this is if you truly feel the player is a difference maker who can make you great in spite of the ransom you had to give up to get him.

                QB’s are overpaid once they reach FA. Osweiler isn’t in the same area code as Watt is as a player, but he plays the star position and teams have to pay market value.

              3. Yep, same discussion. I think what teams consider a “franchise QB” may be changing.

              4. That’s possible Scooter but we haven’t seen many of these kinds of trades and nothing since the RGIII deal. Rightly or wrongly, Goff and Wentz have sparked enough interest for two teams and others who’s offers weren’t good enough, to give up a ton of compensation for the right to make them the face of their franchise.

      2. rocket,
        We’ll just agree to disagree on this topic.
        I made my argument some time back on these two QB. In short, Goff didn’t do well against top teams and Wentz played in a lower division and only really played in a handful of games.

        Obviously, we won’t know until 2-3 years in the league how it pans out for Goff and Wentz, but as you say, I am entitled to my own opinion and there it is.

        1. Yes you are AES…as wrong as it may be. I’m kidding…kind of. No really I am..actually I don’t like you because you don’t agree with me…just kidding again…or am I?

  45. One thing I believe the Eagles trade does is reduce the chances of Elliott being drafted at 8, and thereby reducing the potential interest in pick 7. Upside is the 49ers are more likely to draft one of the premier players available instead of trading down.

      1. I think the quarterback pressure cooker is about to blow the top off and the 49ers could be in a perfect position to clean up. Browns, Jets or Broncos may now feel the power of Lynch to compel them….

      2. They could of course be interested, but with so many draft needs I think they go a different direction.

        1. With so many draft needs, I think they’ll take the best player available, and that player probably will be Elliott. He’ll be a terrific crutch for whichever QB they end up starting.

          1. He’s certainly a good option for them. But my money would be on them taking someone else and waiting to draft a RB. Same as the 49ers.

  46. Rocket, you know a lot of these GM’s are working off similar boards, right? How do not know the 49ers coaches aren’t mostly to blame for poorly developing these young players? We don’t. It’s obvious the coaching wasn’t up to snuff last year, and probably with every coach having one foot out the door the prior season, not great in 2014 either. And we know Harbaugh and Fangio HATED playing young players, which helps developmentally.

    When I think of a GM screwing up, it’s along the lines of:

    1) drafting a busted player with a top 5 or top 10 pick
    2) making a boneheaded trade or 2, or 3, that sets a team back and could easily have been avoided
    3) leaving the team both devoid of talent, while either devoid of picks, or low on cap space, or both

    AJ Jenkins was a first round bust, and Baalke went well outside of scouts consensus (and most teams draft boards) with that pick. That was a bad pick, however, as bad as it was, it was @ 30, which is almost almost a 2nd round pick. As far as the current roster, Trent has wheeled and dealed this team to a large quantity of picks, while also keeping the salary cap under control.

    At some point you got to start pointing fingers at development. The Seahawks consistently grade out poorly right after the draft, only to develop guys nobody has ever heard of, into solid, if not great starters.

    1. 49reasons,

      I missed addressing this point in the previous post but couldn’t let it pass:

      And we know Harbaugh and Fangio HATED playing young players, which helps developmentally.

      Pork has tried to pass of this idea in the past and I called him on it too. This is not true in any way shape or form. Harbaugh and Fangio played young players. The list is long:

      Navarro Bowman
      Aldon Smith
      Kyle Williams
      Chris Culliver
      Kendall Hunter
      Bruce Miller
      Eric Reid
      Vance McDonald
      Cory Lemonier
      Quentin Dial
      Nick Moody
      Jimmy Ward
      Carlos Hyde
      Marcus Martin
      Chris Borland
      Dontae Johnson
      Aaron Lynch

      The one and only area you could make a case of them not playing the young guys is at WR, but they did start Ellington near the end of his rookie year and also threw him into K and PR duties right out of the gate. I’m not sure how this fiction about Harbaugh not playing young players started, but it’s not even remotely true.

      1. rocket,
        I agree with you on this take (lol).
        It must be taken into consideration that Harbaugh inherited a very good playoff ready team when he took the helm. The need for inserting young players was not tantamount for their immediate success at the time. Harbaugh did play young players that were high on talent as you stated.

        Even in Harbaugh’ last season he tried to play some young players but that may have had more to do with key players being injured or in trouble with the law. But I certainly wouldn’t fault him at all for not playing a high percentage of young players in his first 3 seasons.

  47. Now the Browns will be missing out on the top 2 QBs, and have a bunch of additional picks, does Kaep become of interest to them again?

    1. Scooter,
      As Baalke said, “anything can happen in a 24 hr period” (paraphrase). I was not surprised that Tenn. traded out of the #1 spot, but I’m a little baffled by the Browns move.

      I would have bet on them taking whichever QB was on the board after the Rams went with either Goff or Wentz. Perhaps they (Browns) aren’t as enamored with Wentz or Goff like many of the talking-heads are.

  48. What has he done to warrant it? I already listed it rocket, whether you want to acknowledge it or not.

    – 26 players still on the roster, drafted over the last 3 years
    – Executive of the Year, a Super Bowl appearance (meaning an NFC Championship roster) – 3 straight NFC Championship appearances in 6 years. WOW!
    – acquired 12 picks for the 2016 draft
    – excellent position in terms of salary cap

    What casual fans like you don’t realize rocket, is how highly thought of Baalke is with the NFL community. And, like I said, most of these teams have very similar draft boards. Most of these players that haven’t produced were rated similarly on other teams boards. And he’s done more with less than a lot of GM’s, picking at the bottom of every round for 3 of his 6 years, which is a handicap. You also have to take into account what happens to your roster when you start winning consistently? Everyone wants to get paid. That’s also a handicap.

    Baalke hasn’t made many of the big mistakes that make you go “wow, he sure messed that up”. He’s made some mistakes, but all GM’s have. The draft truly is a crap shoot, by and large. Very few, sure things coming out of college.

    Again, if a lot of it isn’t coaching and development, why is it so hard to grade a draft until 2-3 years after the fact? Think about that.

    1. 49reasons,

      – 26 players still on the roster, drafted over the last 3 years
      – Executive of the Year, a Super Bowl appearance (meaning an NFC Championship roster) – 3 straight NFC Championship appearances in 6 years. WOW!
      – acquired 12 picks for the 2016 draft
      – excellent position in terms of salary cap

      26 players on the roster means nothing if it’s not a good roster. Anybody can pick players; it’s picking good ones that is hard.

      Executive of the year was a long time ago and the SB and NFCCG’s were as much or more about Harbaugh than Baalke.

      If there was an award for accumulating picks, I’d nominate Baalke for it.

      They are in excellent position salary cap wise…because he has drafted no one to give money too. Nor has he signed any FA’s worth giving money too. Just like 26 players on the roster, this is only a plus if the team is actually good.

      What casual fans like you don’t realize rocket, is how highly thought of Baalke is with the NFL community. And, like I said, most of these teams have very similar draft boards. Most of these players that haven’t produced were rated similarly on other teams boards. And he’s done more with less than a lot of GM’s, picking at the bottom of every round for 3 of his 6 years, which is a handicap. You also have to take into account what happens to your roster when you start winning consistently? Everyone wants to get paid. That’s also a handicap.

      Just a lot of empty excuses here and I am no casual fan. Baalke presides over a 5-11 team with a lot of holes and not a lot of answers. That is the bottom line. All this other crap is apologist nonsense. Every GM could use this stuff as an excuse. It’s about job performance and overcoming the obstacles. If you don’t produce you get replaced. That is life in the NFL.

      Baalke hasn’t made many of the big mistakes that make you go “wow, he sure messed that up”. He’s made some mistakes, but all GM’s have. The draft truly is a crap shoot, by and large. Very few, sure things coming out of college.

      He has made many mistakes and is clueless in regards to drafting offensive players. I don’t think he commands the respect you think he does anymore. In fact if the last two offseasons have proven anything, it’s that neither Baalke nor Jed command much in the way of respect these days.

      Again, if a lot of it isn’t coaching and development, why is it so hard to grade a draft until 2-3 years after the fact? Think about that.

      I have which is why I hold out hope that some of the young players will step up and show something this year. The 2012 and 2013 drafts are looking pretty grim, but there is still hope for 2014 and 2015.

  49. Umm…time to put all that salary cap money to use. RIGHT NOW.

    “Panthers announced Wednesday that the team has rescinded the non-exclusive franchise tag on cornerback Josh Norman, who never signed the tag after it was placed on him. Norman is entering his fifth NFL season and immediately becomes an Unrestricted Free Agent.
    “After a number of conversations with Josh’s agent we realized that a long-term deal was not attainable,” general manager Dave Gettleman said. “We have decided to rescind the Franchise Tag freeing Josh to immediately become a UFA. We thank Josh for all his contributions and truly wish him well.””

  50. Umm…time to spend some of that salary cap money. RIGHT NOW.

    Panthers announced Wednesday that the team has rescinded the non-exclusive franchise tag on cornerback Josh Norman, who never signed the tag after it was placed on him. Norman is entering his fifth NFL season and immediately becomes an Unrestricted Free Agent.
    “After a number of conversations with Josh’s agent we realized that a long-term deal was not attainable,” general manager Dave Gettleman said. “We have decided to rescind the Franchise Tag freeing Josh to immediately become a UFA. We thank Josh for all his contributions and truly wish him well.”

  51. I honestly cannot believe how fickle fans can be. The guy puts together a team that goes to 3 straight NFC Championships, wins EOTY, and a couple years later he sucks.The funny thing is, if Harbaugh doesn’t call a timeout in the waning seconds of Super Bowl XLVII, we aren’t even having this conversation.

    What happened to Ozzie Newsome and the Baltimore Ravens? They kept their Super Bowl coach, you know, the other harbaugh. And where has that got them. Did Ozzie simply forget how to draft or sign players?

    No rocket, he didn’t. It’s the difficulty, brought about by the CBA, the NFL Draft, and the Salary Cap, that makes it almost impossible to sustain success in the NFL, without an elite QB. That’s simply the facts. When you’re drafting near the bottom of every round, and guys want to get paid, because you’ve been winning, and guys want to retire early because they’ve become content, that’s where the difficulty lies. Who do 49ers fans want to bring in if Baalke gets fired? Mike Holmgren? Come on man.

    1. This team is not going downhill because they couldn’t afford to keep players. They had the money to sign whoever they wanted the past couple of years. They let players go and couldn’t replace them. I have no idea what relation you are to Baalke but he’s either part of the family or your on the pay roll.

      1. And another shot at someone who doesn’t share the same belief as you.

        I agree that Baalke has struggled mightily since the 2011 draft, but that doesn’t make those who disagree with me part of his family or payroll.

        1. Yep you’re right Jack. I am the first person in this boards history to make a joke about being on somebody’s pay roll. Don’t respond to me. I’m bad.

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