Preseason has come and gone. The roster has been set. All that’s left for the 49ers is to focus on the season ahead which will kick off Sunday in Pittsburgh against the Steelers. As we wrap up Labor Day weekend, now is the perfect time to make some predictions for the 2023 season.
1. Brock Purdy will be named to the Pro Bowl and throw for over 4,000 yards
San Francisco has not had a quarterback named to the Pro Bowl since Jeff Garcia in 2002. Brock Purdy will breakthrough to end the drought this season.
Purdy performed beyond everyone’s imagination as a rookie last year.
The final pick in the draft, Prudy took over in week 13 against Miami after Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo were lost for the season with injuries. Instead of shrinking under the pressure of a playoff push, Purdy excelled.
Purdy led the 49ers to victory over the Dolphins, then proceeded to win his next seven starts including two in the postseason. During the win streak the rookie threw 16 touchdown passes to just three interceptions.
During his rookie season, Purdy averaged 8.1 yards per pass attempt. He will keep that pace up in 2023 and give the 49ers their first 4,000 yard passer since Jeff Garcia in 2000.
2. Christian McCaffrey will not go for 1,000/1,000
McCaffrey’s ability as a receiver has many wondering if he could match Roger Craig as 49ers to go over 1,000 yards rushing and receiving in the same year. Although McCaffrey was able to pull off the feat with Carolina in 2019, the numbers don’t work for it to happen in San Francisco.
Last season McCaffrey averaged 8.9 yards per reception, the second highest total of his career. At that average, it would take 113 receptions for McCaffrey to get over 1,000 yards. The 49ers don’t throw the ball enough and have two many other weapons for the running back to reach those numbers as a receiver.
Although he will come up short as a receiver, McCaffrey will reach the 1,000 yard mark on the ground.
3. Deebo Samuel will be the 49ers leading receiver
Although Brandon Aiyuk was the start of training camp, it will be Deebo Samuel who will lead be the 49ers leading receiver in 2023.
Unlike last year when he was in a contract dispute with the team, Samuel came into training camp in shape. The fifth-year receiver has looked explosive, and looks like he can regain his 2021 form if Kyle Shanahan gets him the ball down the field.
Samuel’s average depth of target last season was just 4.3 yards last season. The year before when he went over 1,400 yards, Samuel had an average depth of target of 8.4 yards.
4. Nick Bosa will lead the 49ers in sacks despite missing the first two games
The reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year missed all of training camp while looking for a new contract from the 49ers. With no end in sight, it looks as though Bosa will miss regular season games. My prediction is he will miss the first two.
Still, Bosa will be the 49ers sacks leader.
Last year, no 49er defender was able to get over five sacks. The outlook is much the same this season with Drake Jackson, Clelin Ferrell, Kerry Hyder Jr, and Austin Bryant being the other edge rushers.
San Francisco did spend big money to add Javon Hargrave in free agency, however he has eclipsed 7.5 sacks in a season just once.
5. Kyle Shanahan will hold on to the 10-point fourth quarter lead
For Kyle Shanahan, 10-point fourth quarter leads in the playoffs have been troublesome.
Twice, once as the offensive coordinator in Atlanta and once as the head coach in San Francisco, Shanahan’s teams have gone into the fourth quarter with the lead. Both times they failed to capture the Lombardi Trophy.
That will change this season as Shanahan and the 49ers will walk out of Allegiant Stadium in February as Super Bowl champions.
By my count they have at least three– Deebo, Aiyuk and Kittle. 😉
IMHO, that was just a typo. Ment to be too many.
Hey, Jack. I like #5. That has been Kyle Shanahan’s weakness. Squandering leads in the fourth quarter and ultimately cost the Niners their would-be should’ve been victory. But I think he will finally learn his lesson this time and play smartball. Near the end of the fourth quarter with a lead, RUN THE BALL so as not to give an opponent ample time to come back. Sorry, Jack. I agree with Gavin Nuisance. Brock will not throw for the unrealistic 4000 yards because San Fran is a balanced ratio of run-pass offense, if not more of a run-oriented team. That could be one of the reasons our RB’s is always getting hurt.
#1 agree with a caveat. BP will throw for close to or over 4,000 yards as long as the O line opens consistent holes for the RBs. If they play like last years O line gashing Ds for 2 or 3 long gains then a whole bunch of 2 and 3 yard gains leaving BP in a bunch of 2nd and 3rd and longs then no he doesn’t throw for 4,000. Jack how many TDs over Ints will he throw?
#2 I agree. Too many weapons.
#3 I agree and he will also have a big year on the ground. In the off season the 9ers will pull off a block buster trade for Deebo.
#4 Agree and disagree. I agree he will miss at least 2 games. I disagree that he will lead the team in sacks. If he stays healthy and that is a huge if, he will get double digits in sacks but either Hargrave or Armstead will get one more sack than Bosa.
#5 Disagree, the 9ers won’t make the SB unless Bosa signs today or tomorrow. They will not have home field advantage and either will just miss the playoffs or lose early in the playoffs.
#6 My own prediction. Untill Bosa is ready to play every down Wilkes is going to blitz, blitz and blitz some more.
OC, what teams do you think are likely to take the playoff spots in the NFC if you think the 49ers might miss the playoffs or barely make it?
Right now I don’t see a lot of talent in the NFC period. San Francisco has also been great on the road in playoff games in the Shanahan era- the exception being the 10 point lead blown after Tartt dropped a gimme INT.
I think we would have beaten Philly last year had Shanny challenged the obvious 4th down no-catch on the opening drive as well as Brock not going down.
All that is to say this team is at least as good or better than all, but *maybe* 2 teams in the NFC, even without Bosa.
Gav,
I don’t get the same feeling about this years team as last. NFC teams that might improve enough to make the playoffs? Det. for sure. I see a much improved Seattle winning the west. New Orleans will be much better. I think the 9ers will be a wild card team but there is at least one surprise team every year. This year it could be Chicago. I don’t think the D is near as good without Bosa and I am not nearly sold on Wilkes over Ryans. I would feel better if Bosa signed before Sun.
How do you feel about Hargrave?
SEA is a lot of hype in my opinion. They have some good players but that defense is not great. Everyone is waiting for that magic from a decade ago to reignite but it’s not there anymore.
#1. Last year the Niners averaged 4.7 yards per rush which was the 7th best in the league so your comment about 2 to 3 yards has no basis in fact. How many TD’s over interceptions? That would just be a wild arse guess for anybody but based on last year, I think most of us will like the ratio, but of course not so much for those who can’t help but yearn for Trey.
Felix,
Chirp chirp
Brilliant. Lol
chirp
One thing that BP has that other teams don’t is 3 of the NFC best receiver’s, CMC and oh yea KS running the Offense…did i mention CMC
One thing 49er opponents have this year they did not last year is the BP tape
If BP can stay upright for at least most of the season and not regress, we get to the end of the season and into the playoffs with BP, 9er franchise will be set for the next several years at least.
My guess is that all the opponents after the Miami game were looking very closely at his tapes. The later opponents had more tapes to watch. Shanahan expects Purdy to be better this year which seems reasonable. He sure looked good in trading camp. Jack believes he’ll make the pro bowl and that would be great. He could be a Niner for 10 years or longer.
Just saw my first youtube video saying the 9ers are talking to an AFC team about trading Bosa. The poster claims that he is the one who broke the CMC trade story last year. I have doubts about the reliability. If there is any truth to it I think its a bad idea.
That came out a while back and the guy isn’t credited with breaking the CMC story as the rumors were already out before he “announced it.”
If it’s the same video this guy just likes to make news. I think I saw that nonsense before the holiday weekend.
Obviously it’s fake as just a couple of days ago Lynch was pretty clear no trade for Bosa. I know someone will say he could change his mind but that would be equal to if pigs could fly.
#1) With this oline I would be suprised if we break the shanny curse for qbs being injured,Week 6-8 is my guess.
#2)If Bosa misses anytime I meen any even week 1 we are behind the 8ball.
#3)Mr Purdy.Id be absolutely shocked if he stays healthy,Id also be absolutely shocked if he doesnt regress.He had 0 pressure on him to preform last year,now all anyone can talk about is superbowl and we traded our franchise Qb or at least thats what everyone said he was just last year to Dallas.If thats not a pressure cooker I dont know what is.We will find out, Hopefully Im totally off base.I still love the team just a little confused at our decisions.GO NINERS.
Hey, Niner Faithful! Not that I’m wishing bad luck on Trey Lance for being with the hated Cowboys, but I hope someday he does not come back to haunt us especially in the playoffs. Now. Once again we cannot forget about our #1 foe. The dreaded injury bug. I know it’s a part of football, but still, we gotta hope it stays down to a bare minimum if we want to compete. Because we need our weapons to stay healthy in order to succeed
Hey, Niner Faithful! Not that I’m wishing bad luck on Trey Lance for being with the hated Cowboys, but I hope someday he does not come back to haunt us especially in the playoffs. Now. Once again we cannot forget about our #1 foe. The dreaded injury bug. I know it’s a part of football, but still, we gotta hope it stays down to a bare minimum if we want to compete. Because we need our weapons to stay healthy in order to succeed.
Oops. I did not mean for that to print twice. I thought it didn’t go through so I pressed it again. So. GOOO NINERS!!!
Ok. Here’s your reality check:
1. No. Purdy will be on a Pro Bowl trek with a passing trend to reach 4k yards but he will be injured by the 6th game of the season and put on IR due to absolutely horrid O-line play.
2. No. Poor O-line play will result in a 700 yard rushing and 200 yard receiving year for CMC. One of the most versatile RBs in the league will be held to less than 1k total yards from scrimmage due to horrible O-line performance.
3. No. Aiyuk will lead the 49ers in receiving. It isnt close.
4. Yes. Nick Bosa will lead the 49ers in sacks even if he misses multiple games due to a holdout. Thats not so much a testament to Bosa’s abilities as it is a criticism of Lynch’s drafting abilities on the defense.
Oh boy we get the annual the O line is horrible story. They weren’t horrible last year and now the newer guys have another year of experience. The sky isn’t falling. We have a great team. Enjoy.
Purdy led the 49ers to victory over the Dolphins, then proceeded to win his next seven starts including two in the postseason. During the win streak the rookie threw 16 touchdown passes to just three interceptions.
#6. At some point, Sam Darnold will start a game (or two).
Hopefully after the Niners clinch a first-round bye, and Home-field in the 2nd round and NFCCG.
I like your prognostications Jack…..how about this one…What will Bosa’s contract be worth, and what, or who, will be cap casualties because of it?
55,
Cap casualties won’t happen until next season. Bosa’s new contract will actually lower this years cap number.
OC, the fact that we don’t know what the sticking point is for the contract makes me think the FO is the problem. I don’t think it is $2mil
Bosa might want too much of it guaranteed.
Usually the ‘problem’ is “inadvertently” leaked to put pressure on the player.
Not this time….
Yip!
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/38340390/source-49ers-nick-bosa-highest-paid-defensive-player
Per, Field Yates.
“The 49ers on Wednesday needed to clear a little bit of cap space to get under the $224,800,000 threshold for this season. They cleared a ton of it by restructuring the contracts of tight end George Kittle and left tackle Trent Williams according to ESPN’s Field Yates. By executing the pair of restructures, the 49ers cleared $23.224 million in space.”
Our top valued players are not effected by Bosa’s huge contract.
Interesting prediction about Purdy passing for 4,000 yrds this season. It would be a very good personal accomplishment.
But the main goal this season is winning a Superbowl and that means having all the right personnel to do so.
It’s about the team winning a SB.
Feel free to correct if I’m wrong, but I don’t remember Joe Montana ever having a 4,000 yrd passing season with the 49ers. But he does have 4 Superbowl wins.
The prediction game is a fun exercise. But I won’t be satisfied unless the 49ers bring home the Trophy.
Bosa signs 5yr 170 mil.
According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the San Francisco 49ers have signed their best defensive player, defensive end Nick Bosa, to a five-year, $170 million contract extension that includes a massive $122.5 million guaranteed, keeping the young pass rusher with the team through the 2028 season.
AES,
Good news. Do you think he will play Sunday. I doubt it.
He may want to play. But if I were Shanahan, I would treat it as a preseason game with Bosa being limited to a few snaps.
Jack / AES
I would hope the 9ers hold Bosa out for the first 2 games and give him time to get into football shape. Why risk a soft tissue injury that could affect his play for much, if not all, of the season?
Even without Bosa, that should leave the 9ers with a 3W – 1L record and a healthy Bosa, going into the Dallas game.
GEEP,
I can see them holding him out the first game then putting him on a pitch count the 2nd game, say around 10 to 15 plays. If he doesn’t play game 1 I see Wilkes blitzing better than 30% of the plays
According to yahoo sports Bosa is likely to play this Sunday.
They are not guaranteeing him $$$ to sit on the bench!
But the money is guaranteed if they rush him back, he gets injured and misses multiple games.
Jack……I am confused?
This morning (09/06/2023), I read your article on Bosa signing a $170 million extension with the San Francisco 49ers, including $122.5 million guaranteed. I even wrote a response, saying I hope the 9ers didn’t play him for 2 games to avoid a soft tissue injury…..Now your article has disappeared??? What happened and why did the PD pull your article?
I did not have an article yesterday.
Cam Inman had an article yesterday that is still online.
GEEP,
Your’e response is showing on this post. I have been here off and on all day but haven’t seen a post by Jack regarding Bosa’s signing.
Apparently, Shanahan said that Nick would have to have a beer belly in order to not play on Sunday. If you count this year, his deal averages $31.4 million per year for six years.