The San Francisco 49ers (2-2) will look to win back-to-back games for the first time this season when they face the Carolina Panthers (1-3) on Sunday at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.
The NFL schedule makers were not kind to the 49ers. Short weeks are tough on the body. A short week that includes cross country travel is even more difficult.
Despite what their records might suggest, Carolina will provide a test for the 49ers. The Panthers have outscored San Francisco, 78-71. In addition, the Panthers defense has proven to be solid.
Sunday’s game also marks the first of a two-week road trip. With a game in Atlanta next up, the 49ers will stay on the East Coast instead of traveling back to Santa Clara.
Here are my five questions to watch out for on Monday night.
1.) Will the 49ers offense score over 17 points?
The first month of the season has been a struggle for the 49ers offense. Through the first four games they’ve managed only 17 points or less three times.
There are several reasons for the slow start, starting with missed opportunities from the quarterback position.
In week one at Chicago, Trey Lance had Tyler Kroft open for a touchdown but overthrew the tight end. On the first drive of the second half, he had Jauan Jennings open in the endzone, but held onto the ball and took a sack.
Against Denver in week three, Jimmy Garoppolo had receivers running free several times and either threw inaccurately or not at all.
It’s been rare to see the 49ers offense move the ball down the field without an explosive play. For the most part they’ve been their own worst enemy. Missed opportunities on third down and penalties have played a large role in the 49ers inability to stay on the field.
This week they face a Carolina defense that has allowed opponents to convert on 39.1 percent of their third down attempts. That trails only Denver among teams San Francisco has faced to this point in 2022.
2.) Can the 49ers get their run game going?
At first glance the 49ers run game hasn’t been that bad. They’ve averaged 4.4 yards per rush attempt, slightly better than last season.
What that number doesn’t show is the dramatic fall off in production over the last 11 quarters.
With Trey Lance at quarterback, the 49ers offense averaged 5.7 yards per attempt on the ground.
Since Jimmy Garoppolo took over at the end of the first quarter against Seattle in week two, that number has dropped to 3.5 yards per rush attempt.
Injuries to Elijah Mitchell and Ty Davis-Price play a role in the decline in production.
No longer having the Lance to provide a running threat has a lot to do with it as well. Linebackers and safeties are now able to flow much more quickly to the ball.
The offense is still getting an explosive run or two a game but is lacking the ability to consistently pick up four our five yards to help keep the chains moving.
This week they face a Carolina defense which has been solid against the run. The Panthers defense has allowed only 4.1 yards per attempt on the ground. This currently ranks twelfth in the NFL.
3.) Will the 49ers move the ball through the air?
While the Panthers defense has been solid against the run, they’ve been even better against the pass. They have allowed only 5.8 net yards per pass attempt, ninth best in the league.
The 49ers have not been bad in the passing game themselves.
Jimmy Garoppolo has averaged 6.98 net yards per pass attempt since taking over as the starting quarterback, placing him seventh in the NFL.
A great deal of Garoppolo’s success can be attributed to the run after catch ability of Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. Samuel and Aiyuk combined for 152 receiving yards on Monday night against Los Angeles with 138 of those yards coming after the catch.
Brian Burns will provide a strong test for the 49ers offensive line; however, the Panthers defense will be without starting safety Jeremy Chinn.
The Carolina defense may be without its two leading tacklers. Linebacker Frankie Luvu and safety Xavier Woods are both questionable for Sunday
4.) Can the 49ers defense keep delivering?
The 49ers defense comes into Sunday having allowed 18 points over the previous three games. Against Carolina they will face an offense which has gained the fewest yards in the NFL.
A big reason for the Panthers lack of offense is the quarterback position.
In his first season with Carolina, Mayfield has completed less than 55 percent of his pass attempts. His 5.2 net yards per attempt ranks near the bottom of the NFL.
While Mayfield has struggled, so has the offensive line, allowing 11 sacks. Next up will be a 49ers pass rush which took down Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford seven times on Monday night. Led by Nick Bosa and Samson Ebukam, this unit could make life miserable for Mayfield.
The bright spot for Carolina’s offense has been the run game. The Panthers average of 4.5 yard per rush attempt is slightly better than the 49ers. However, if San Francisco can continue to force three and outs at like they have the last two weeks the Panthers won’t have much opportunity to grind yards out.
5.) Which team best protects the ball?
On Monday night the 49ers won the turnover battle. This moved San Francisco to 13-3 since the start of 2021 in games where the turnover margin was tied or favored them.
The situation is similar for Carolina. The Panthers have lost the turnover battle in each of their three losses. They game they didn’t was their lone win against New Orleans.
The 49ers have the advantage in personnel over Carolina going into this game but if they don’t protect the football could see a golden opportunity to get a win on the road slip away.
Prediction:
49ers 17 Panthers 12
17-12, Niners..24-10,Niners or 34-3, Niners….they all look the same in the W-L columns..
True but I’d like to see our offense improve. I think 17 points is too low. I’d love to see 30 points sometime. Maybe this week.
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Hey Jack. That score seems a little pessimistic. Are you worried about the cross country trip?
I think he’s worried about Derrick Brown and Brian Burns against our 3rd string LT.
Over the last 4 seasons teams are 58-66 after a Mon. night game and that doesn’t take into consideration teams after Mon. night who have to travel cross country. I am very worried about this week. The only good news is it is a 1:00 west coast time start as opposed to a 10:00 start.
Everything will right ok ! so don’t take serious after all it’s just game life is bigger then game
Jack
I agree Jack, a good game analysis, this should be a win for the 9ers. I’m also concerned with a short week, traveling cross country and the 9ers coming off a big win over the Rams. If they come out emotionally flat, get behind early, let CMC score and Baker Mayfield get in a rhythm, this could be a 9er loss. We’ve seen in previous games when they get behind, they get foolish penalties that prevent them from scoring and a JG INT costs them the game.
So I agree, the key areas to deciding this one is the D stops CMC from scoring, pressures & sacks Mayfield and the O Line does it’s job by protecting JG, opens running lanes for the RB’s and no JG INT’s.
My prediction: 9ers 23 Panthers 6
1. Traveling to the East coast on a short week is definitely a challenge. The good news is that we are a pretty good road team especially in the Eastern Time Zone. It is confirmed we are staying at Greenbrier WV between Panthers and Falcons.
2. Panthers are not a great team. Panther’s D is decent but they have had the luxury of playing the Browns, Giants, Saints and injury plagued Cardinals team. The key is for our D to not allow CMC any big chunk plays. If Jimmy has a clean game (no more than 1 pick) we should win.
3. Our old buddies Jim Harbuagh and Chip Kelly are undefeated.
4. Niners 24 Panthers 9
49ers are going to put up at least 30 points this game. Last year Shanahan started putting Jimmy in shotgun more often because that is where he felt comfortable since his days in NE. We are now going into year 2 of this adjustment and I think we are going to see the tweaks and wrinkles from Shanahan. Teams are selling out to stop Deebo and Kittle. We have seen from Jack’s film review the big plays, this year alone, that have been left on the field. Teams are so vulnerable because of this. I believe this week we see a Shanahan special for Turner, Ray-Ray, or MAYBE Gray.
Remember the Bengals game from 2019?
31-17 49ers
Agree with Jack that the game is closer than thought by many. Jimmy G is what he is which is not much. Injuries have hurt the running game and the oL is suspect. The defense will need to carry the day. Really so sad that the Niners blew the Chicago and Denver games.