Can the 49ers overcome loss of Deebo Samuel? 5 burning questions for 49ers against Los Angeles

 

The San Francisco 49ers (3-4) will look to bounce back from an embarrassing 44-23 loss to Kansas City when they take on the Los Angeles Rams (3-3) Sunday afternoon at SoFi Stadium.

Just as it was when these teams matched up in week four, this is a big game for the 49ers.

Seattle currently is a game ahead of the rest of the teams in the NFC West. A victory for San Francisco will allow them to keep pace with Seattle along with having the tiebreaker over Los Angeles.

Here are my five questions to watch out for Sunday.

1.) Will the 49ers offense clean up its mistakes?

San Francisco’s offense has made a habit out of hurting itself with mistakes.

For example, they are tied for the fifth most penalties in the NFL, have the second highest percentage of dropped passes, are tied for the second most lost fumbles, and the ninth highest interception percentage.

In the first matchup, the Niners were nearly mistake free. San Francisco committed only five penalties and didn’t turn the ball over.

Winning the turnover battle will be key for San Francisco. Since the start of 2021 the 49ers are 14-3 when they win or tie the turnover battle. When they turn the ball over more than their opponent the Niners are 1-9.

2.) Can the 49ers overcome the loss of Deebo Samuel?

San Francisco will be without Deebo Samuel on Sunday. The 49ers have struggled to win games with the dynamic player on the sideline, posting a 4-7 record.

Christian McCaffrey should be able to fill Samuel’s role in the running and screen games. He’s a better runner than Samuel. McCaffrey faced the Rams two weeks ago, finishing with 69 yards on 13 carries while catching seven of eight passes for another 89 yards.

Where the 49ers will most miss Samuel is as a receiver. This puts San Francisco in a tough spot because Jauan Jennings is questionable and may miss the game as well.

These injuries mean the weight of carrying the passing game will now shift to Brandon Aiyuk.

Aiyuk has faced the Rams four times and has posted moderate success. The third-year receiver has 15 receptions on 18 targets for 182 yards and one touchdown.

If Jennings is not able to play, Aiyuk will be joined by rookie Danny Gray, Ray-Ray McCloud, Willie Snead, and Malik Turner. This group has a combined eight receptions for 118 yards and one touchdown, all by McCloud.

3.) Can San Francisco’s offense move the ball on the ground?

With Deebo Samuel out and Jauan Jennings questionable, this game sets up perfectly for the Niners to get back to what they do best, running the football.

The 49ers opened the season with a pair of big days on the ground, rushing for 365 yards the first two weeks.

Since week two however the 49ers have rushed for only 480 yards. The main reason for the drop off has been play calling.

Kyle Shanahan has chosen to pass on just over 63 percent of the offensive plays the last five weeks, leading to a 2-3 record over that span.

As if having two of the top three wide receivers out weren’t bad enough, San Francisco will go into this game without Kyle Juszczyk.

Expect to see tight end Ross Dwelley replace Juszczyk in the backfield, and don’t be surprised to see Jeff Wilson Jr. and McCaffrey on the field at the same time. Wilson has experience at full back and was often used as a lead blocker for Deebo Samuel in the past.

San Francisco’s goal offensively this week should be to get at least 40 rushing attempts. A heavy dose of Wilson and McCaffrey, along with a sprinkling of Jordan Mason along with Brandon Aiyuk on jet sweeps could be just what is needed to get the offense back on track.

4.) Will San Francisco’s pass rush return to form?

Through the first five weeks of the season San Francisco’s pass rush was dominant. Led by Nick Bosa, the 49ers sacked opposing quarterbacks on 12.2% of their pass attempts.

It has been a different story the last two weeks. In losses to Atlanta and Kansas City the 49ers managed only three sacks.

The pass rush not getting to the quarterback has led to problems in the secondary.

Over the last two weeks the 49ers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 79 percent of their pass attempts, average 11.5 yards attempt, and five touchdown passes.

Next up is Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp.

Although Stafford has struggled this year, throwing an interception in five of the Rams first six games, he and Kupp can put up numbers in a hurry.

More on that in a minute.

Sunday could be a “get right” game for the pass rush. Los Angeles has allowed Matthew Stafford to be pressured on 24.4 percent of his drop backs this season. When these two teams met in week four San Francisco bettered that average, pressuring Stafford 30.4 of the time he dropped back.

5.) Can the 49ers defense force Matthew Stafford into mistakes?

Getting pressure on Stafford is the great equalizer.

Despite his high level of play, Stafford will give opposing defenses opportunities to take the ball away. Stafford threw an interception on 2.8 percent of his pass attempts in 2021. Through the first six weeks of this season Stafford’s interception percentage stands at 3.6.

Stafford threw a pair of interceptions in the first meeting between these two teams in week four, one of which was returned for a touchdown by Talanoa Hufanga.

The 49ers need to take advantage of the opportunities Matthew Stafford will present them and hold on to the ball to have any chance of winning.

Cooper Kupp continues to be Stafford’s top target.

Kupp was targeted a whopping 19 times in the first meeting. While the All-Pro wide receiver finished with 14 receptions for 122 yards, the 49ers were able to keep him out of the endzone.

Stopping Los Angeles isn’t about shutting down Kupp. That’s not going to happen. The key is to keep him in front of you and not let the other Rams offensive weapons get going.

With the focus on Kupp, don’t forget about tight end Tyler Higbee and Allen Robinson.

Higbee comes into Sunday with the same average yards after the catch as Kupp. He is a chain mover, his 16 receiving first downs second only to Kupp.

After a slow start to the season, Robinson had a strong performance in the Rams last game before their bye. The veteran hauled in five receptions against Carolina, all of them netting a first down.

Prediction:

49ers 23 Rams 20