Conducting an autopsy of the 49ers offense

South head coach Kyle Shanahan of the San Francisco 49ers throws a pass during practice for Saturday’s Senior Bowl college football game, Thursday, Jan. 24, 2019, in Mobile, Ala. (AP Photo/Butch Dill)

The 49ers need help.

This time of year, every NFL team scouts itself. Combs through the previous season and discovers what went right and what went wrong. You’d think the head coach would be the perfect person to lead this project. He isn’t. He’s biased, and so are his assistant coaches. They all think the same way and have become too close to their team.

Kyle Shanahan needs an unbiased outsider to direct the autopsy of last season. Someone whose emotions aren’t involved. Someone objective.

I nominate me.

You might think I’m prejudiced against Shanahan because I’ve criticized him at times the past two seasons. I swear I’m not. I totally get what Shanahan does well, and I can show you with statistics.

Click here to read the rest of my column.

This article has 139 Comments

  1. I trust you’ll conduct similar autopsies of the defense and special teams. Then, go for the autopsy of 9er ownership–not stopping with Jed.

  2. I can get behind that recommendation, and I expect we’ll see more of that with a healthy McKinnon.

    1. If Grant was half as smart as him and his dad thinks he is he wouldn’t be working where his dad got him a job. He believes he is the smartest football person in Northern California. He dosen’t like any 49er coach until they are gone. Harbaugh a prime ecample. Grant keep your job where you are because you will not find another one.

  3. I think Matt Miaocco is the most unbiased objective reporter in the bay area always critiques the team, not like Scott Bair where he constantly supports Mark Davis in every mistake he makes almost if Mark Davis is paying him directly.

    1. MM kisses the FO’s rear end all the time. He is the biggest sycophant I know that covers the Niners, but that is also why he gets the scoops.

      1. Your out of your mind seb MM tells it how it is I listen to MM all the time Scott Bair is the one that makes excuses for Mark Davis and Gruden all the time.

        1. I have listened to MM talk with Tolbert and Lund on their podcasts, and I do not remember MM ripping anyone. He is relentlessly upbeat, and a solid die hard faithful Niner fan. I certainly have not heard him rip the coaching, or the FO.
          .
          I have perused the various Niner sites- Niners nation, Niner noise, Niner webzone, Niner insider, and this site is the only one that does not hold back. The others state the obvious and regurgitates the news. None of the other sites have a Grant that says the emperor is wearing no clothes.
          .
          MM and Barrows are saccharine syrupy sweet, full of rainbows and unicorns. Grant is the objective one, the others are toadies and sycophants. I do not know who the heck Scott Bair is, and do not care, because I am not interested at all in the Raiders, except to delight in their failures.
          .
          So, go ahead and believe the Matts are objective journalists Maybe your standards are low. I am diametrically opposite from your opinion. I will believe that the Matts kiss arse, and are the biggest drum beating homers I know.

          1. Seb,
            I have to disagree with you here. I have both read and listened to MM and MB extensively. They both are critical of the 49ers coaching staff and front office when it is called for. The difference between those two writers and Grant is not content but more a matter of tone. Your own choice of words are indicative of what I am writing about. You wrote that you have never heard MM “rip” the coaching staff and or FO. You are correct I don’t believe he has “ripped” anyone but he has criticized them regularly. The difference is his critiques are always respectful and professional. Grants post today is both respectful and professionally written, at times his tone leans towards attacking. His tone on occasion can be more Fox News than BBC.

            1. OC – Grant is a fan but either can’t or won’t admit it. I personally find it unusual that so many posters here who claim to be fans are very atypical of what I know of as fans. (First game at Kezar 1955; season ticket holder for 25 + years, with a large family and significant number friends who are diehard 49er fans over the years – kind of qualifies me as knowledgeable) With no offense to you or any others who differ, the fans I know are very reluctant to make excuses and are inclined to “rip” the players and coaches when they play the way they have. Grant typifies a fan that I am used to hearing from. Shanahan and Lynch will get respect when they earn it and there are very few points for effort and meaningless statistics. They have yet to demonstrate they know how to win enough and all the offensive stats show is running around with their foot nailed to the floor. The M boys are more an extension of the 49ers in house PR department. When they speak you need to look to see if Al Guido’s mouth is moving.

              1. WC,
                “Shanahan and Lynch will get respect when they earn it and there are very few points for effort and meaningless STATISTICS.”

                I wholeheartedly agree with this. But not sure if anyone here has elavated Shanahan / Lynch to a highly respected status.

                Shanahan / Lynch / FO, have made their share of mistakes. But my contention is that they are building from ground zero.

                Yes, the new regime has not earned their respect as of yet nor appreciation.
                I compare this to not fully appreciating a new building that is only half built.
                There’s nothing attractive when looking at the rebar, columns, unattached wires and strewn metal. But when the building is complete, the appreciation comes with at.

                Personally, I gave the new regime 3 years to see a positive uptick. I can’t wait to see how year three plays out.
                If that makes me a sycophant (as someone said), then put me at the very top.

            2. Old Coach, maybe I have been a little harsh on the Matts. They do criticize, and are not abject apologists for the management and FO. They do divulge the breaking news. I do listen to their podcasts on KNBR.
              .
              Maybe I am comparing them to Grant, who can write 10 positive things, but then gets ripped and called a hater for mentioning one negative thing.
              .
              Yes, it is hard not to be critical of a 4-12 team. The Matts have a hard job, and I do think they can say some insightful things at times. However, I do think they lean more towards Pollyanna than Dante.

    2. Well, they are reporters not bloggers.

      They typically try to keep their opinions out of it… their niche is vastly different from Grant’s. Their is an audience for both.

      I personally prefer Barrows to the others for news (you will get more of his opinion when he is interviewed). However, while Grant is snarkier, I really enjoy some of his pieces, like this one, where he backs up opinions with solid numbers. I find them enjoyable to debate or converse with other fans over and that is where the real gold is and where Grant shines. He interacts with fans, engages with and debates them… and to be fair, while we criticize him for being a “hot take” guy, the comment section is quite stagnant when their isn’t a somewhat controversial topic to discuss.

    1. Kaep should not risk his body playing in the scrub league. He should wait until he wins his lawsuit. He should be signed and play for a QB needy team. Jax, Miami, Cincy, Detroit, Arizona and even Buffalo would upgrade with Kaep.

      1. Kaepernick, if he truly wanted to play, should seize the opportunity provided by the AAF just like all the other players in that league. Maybe that self entitled attitude sells among his groupies, but no one else with half a brain is buying that BS….

      2. Translation: don’t take a chance to prove the naysayers wrong and be greedy as hell, but make it look good enough so that your collusion case is still intact. Got it.

        1. It would be a strategic blunder to injure oneself, so one could not play. It would destroy his case.
          .
          Teams do not allow players to ride dirt bikes, ski, scuba dive and sky dive. NFL teams do not let their players compete in the AAF. Kaep considers himself part of the NFL, even without a team at the moment.

          1. Sebber, you’re a legend in here and that is legendary nonsense. Really some of your best work.

            1. Agreed Razor. He is trying to justify Kaepernick wanting to avoid injury so that he can play. ??

            2. Now, Chris Carter is advocating Kaep signing with the Patriots?
              .
              Kaep may be the heir apparent to Tom Brady?

              1. Chris Carter is the perfect example of why I don’t put much weight on the opinions of former players.

                Keap would need to drop his collusion case against the NFL and I don’t see him doing this.
                The AAF may his ticket back if he can prove that he’s viable.

                If Kaep is truly in love with the game he could have gone to the CFL the way Johnny Manziel did.

  4. Niners need help. Maybe KS should fix his organizational deficiencies, first.
    .
    KS should promote Shane Day to OC, and Mike LaFleur to QB coach. Day may be able to help organize the offense better, so KS can concentrate on being the HC. KS wants the play calling duties, but he should delegate authority to Day. KS can get the final call, and make an audible if he wants, but KS should not be worrying about what play to call, and concentrating more on managing the game dynamics.
    .
    The problem is, it is OK when plays are successful, but things break down when plays do not gain yardage. Grant points out why KS should not be worrying about the play call. KS should be making assessments, and making in game adjustments, without being distracted, by focusing on the play calling.
    .
    Sounds like they are using WCO concepts by scripting plays. However, there should be scripted plays for when the previous play was unsuccessful. I think throwing on first down 70% of the time is counter productive. They should do more run plays, or even short passes, to gain at least a few yards. Second down is the same. It is much better to gain at least a few yards, instead of the boom or bust approach. Gaining a few yards will make it third and manageable. Third and long is something to be avoided. The good thing is- there are about 50 ways to run the ball, so they can be unpredictable, and attack all along the line.
    .
    Conducting an analysis of what went right and what went wrong is a good first step. I guess it alright to call an analysis of a 4-12 season an autopsy, but some will howl at the negativity.
    .
    I will frame it as an honest assessment, with constructive criticism. The good news is that all is not bleak and desolate. Even with the poor record, the team has improved. Mitigating circumstances like injuries will affect the overall assessments. Like JG, Mullens came and saved the day at the end of the season. The defense did well, even though the DBs were decimated with injuries. The offense did well against the Bears, a playoff team, and the team even defeated the Seahawks, another Playoff team.
    .
    The Niners are at a crossroads. one path leads to the cellar, but the elusive path leads to the layoffs. If JL can sign enough Free Agents to fill all the holes, then hit a home run in the draft, with the returning players, the Niners can become more competitive. KS needs to improve his coaching, because we all saw how good coaching will make winning look easy. I will continue to point out the fact that BB has an OC, and thinks it is important to let his coaches do their job. Bill Bellichick is a grizzled veteran HC, who has won 6 rings. KS has won nothing, and it is hubris to think he is smarter than BB. McVay also found that out. Some one should ask him why he thinks an OC would hurt the team, or is unnecessary.

    1. Fact of the matter is, Shanny knows nothing about Offensive football-nor has his father-ever.
      An OC will put them in multiple SuperBowls, and this has been proven time and again.
      A Superbowl QB will win them game after game-because he’s been in the Superbowl.

      The rest of the team had nothing to do with it.

      1. Well, that second half of the SB, you may be right. MS in Washington did not look like a savant.
        .
        We will never know, because KS refuses to hire an OC.
        .
        A SB QB has more chance of winning compared to a QB who has never even sniffed the playoffs.
        .
        Funny, I thought it was a team sport, not golf.

    2. Sebbie, there isn’t time for the HC to make an audible in playcalling before the headset cuts out. It would be a disaster. Kyle’s playcalls generally aren’t the problem.

      1. With better, more efficient preparations, the play could be run before there are 15 seconds left on the play clock. Wasting time while behind is…. obtuse.

        1. Posting a 909 word treatise on 9er foibles and fortunes (yet again, laced with clichés) is close to the same, very close.

      2. Grant just laid out the case for KS’s struggles with his play calling. Calling for 70% pass plays on first and 10 is a boom and bust strategy, with many busts.

        1. Walsh did that……………….more often than not started 1st down with some kind of pass.

          Haha!!!!! Now in effect you know more than Walsh! I owe you a cover charge for the “Sebbie” show! And I’d pay it, believe me!

  5. Good write-up Grant, but it feels like you didn’t delve deep enough into the autopsy. For instance, how much did the issues of the WRs failing to separate and being injury riddled play into the difficulties after 1st and 10? How much did the struggles of Richburg affect this? Did the down year from Celek play a role?

    1. Yes good research and good points. I am also not the biggest fan of Shanahan so I am somewhat biased to his opinion.

  6. I wonder if we had Homerun hitters at the skill positions if those big plays on first downs would turn into more touchdowns. Or maybe it would just turn 15-20 yard gains into 20-30 yard gains where we get stuck in the red zone running the ball haha

  7. But you are not objective though! You are a very good writer but you have had an age to grind against Shanahan and others for some time. I am glad you run this blog but haters going to hate and you like to hate on Shani,Lynch and others!

  8. That’s an interesting dive into the some surface statistics. But all numbers need to be taken within context.

    There’s always a give and take between the offense dictating to the defense vs. attacking the defense’s weakness and/or taking what the defense gives them.

    Now think about it; how would you defend the 49ers’ 2018 offense? Because of the limitations of the QB, I’d put 8 in the box to defend the run and set the coverage so that the best way to attack is to go deep. That’s how’d I’d defend 1st down and 2nd and manageable (an even run/pass probability). Against run game I’d clog the middle and make the Niners beat me on the edges and prep my edge defenders to look for those runs.

    Because of the Niner’s lack of experience (and possibly skill) at QB along with the limitations of the WRs; the Niners couldn’t really dictate to opponents. The only piece they could dictate with was Kittle. The interior OL isn’t as efficient at blocking inside types of blocks (for plays like inside zone/ISO). So the Niners were kind of painted into a corner.

    I agree that I think the Niners need a powerful interior runner. It’d be nice if they had more interior O-line power. Their high priced Center, Richburg, has been I suppose efficient but he’s also soft. He’s not going to get a whole lot of push power in straight up drive blocking (as opposed to more agile position based reach blocks used in Outside Zone). I’m a firm believer that sometimes you just have to run the ball straight down the defense’s throat. Not all the time or even often but every game there are instances when it’s needed. And there are some games where the defensive personnel and scheme match up dictates that you should be running the ball up the gut of the defense.

    Hopefully Jimmy will be an improvement in the offense’s ability to dictate to defenses. His first three games weren’t spectacular but then it was expected the Jimmy would still be learning the offensive scheme. Shanahan and Jimmy had more success when Shanahan incorporated some of the Patriot’s plays that Jimmy was familiar with for Jimmy to execute. I’d suggest installing more of those plays into the core of the playbook to continue to make Jimmy comfortable and then continue to expand from there. I have no evidence of this but I do think that because Jimmy had an off season to absorb the offense, Kyle just dumped the massive playbook on him and it might have hindered Jimmy and the offense’s productivity. If it were up to me, I’d translate that whole playbook into the Patriot’s concepts based play calling system as I think it’s easier for the players to pick up and make adjustments….but I think Kyle and the rest of the offense are too far set in the Paul Brown/WCO play calling system at this point.

    1. AFFP,
      Thanks for the well-written post. I wish some beat reporter would ask Jimmy G a question on Kyle’s WCO terminology vs. Erhardt-Perkins verbiage when they get a chance to sit down with him next season. I’ll make a suggestion to Barrows.

    2. Grant’s prowess with stats and analytics will surely land him that job interview with PFF. Wishing Grant the best.

  9. Also an observation about the outside zone run scheme. It seems to me that some of the best runners in that scheme were mostly tough inside runners that could also get to the outside if they needed to.

    Terrell Davis (obviously)
    Arian Foster
    Alfred Morris

  10. I think your assessment would be much better if you were honest with yourself and a bit more humble. You have some good points but also some not so good points. I think taking your own advice for the coach and looking at yourself would be beneficial. You could bring a fresh voice to the reporting of the the Niners. It’s your ego and your seeming bias that blinds you and makes you less credible. Just my 2 cents worth.

    1. ‘Fell asleep in my recliner and had a nice Dream about the niners Dline w Allen, , Armstead, Buckner,DJ Jones, and Blair….G’nite….

  11. After reading this article it’s official…The 49ers have the worst offence in NFL history our head coach is a bum LoL.
    I love this coaching staff bro year 3 will be much better – Go Niners

    1. It’s a head scratcher… Grant–time and time again–has clearly demonstrated his football expertise. Matchless I’d say. Why he isn’t in the league making seven (7) figures annually is beyond me. One issue could be that–while having a brilliant offensive mind–he’s rather poor at coaching and leading young men and hard core veterans. He can draw up Xs and Os with the very best, but can’t get guys to buy-in, sustain a high degree of focus, and believe in each other.

      Effective leadership in high pressure environments is very, very difficult.

  12. Grant,
    Great post. I am curious if those stats are consistent with the 2017 9ers stats as well as his statistics with the Falcons or was this just a one year anomaly.

    1. Thanks, Old Coach. Great question.

      Here are the second-and-10-or-more frequencies of Kyle Shanahan’s offenses compared the NFL average.
      2018: KS — 41.8%. NFL — 38.4%
      2017: KS — 43.0%. NFL — 39.7%.
      2016: KS — 39.3%. NFL — 38.6%.
      2015: KS — 38.4%. NFL — 39.5%.
      2014: KS — 42.8%. NFL — 38.8%.
      2013: KS — 43.2%. NFL — 39.3%.
      2012: KS — 41.0%. NFL — 38.5%.
      2011: KS — 38.5%. NFL — 38.4%.
      2010: KS — 44.9%. NFL — 38.1%.
      2009: KS — 37.7%. NFL — 38.1%.
      2008: KS — 33.7%. NFL — 37.3%.

      Falling into 2nd-and-10-or-more has been an issue for Kyle Shanahan since 2008. He needs to learn how to play the “chain game.”

      1. Even more telling information could be developed if you could somehow quantify the ‘offensive potential’ KS had available over those years. Offensive potential in terms of quality and effectiveness of the offensive players for each of the years noted. Was KS getting more from sub-optimal offensive players in some years, less output from very talented offensive players, or???

        Example: If a 38.5% was achieved with several all pros–that says one thing. If the 38.5% was accomplished with a mix of duds and 3rd stringers, that says something else.

        1. In 2016, Shanahan’s best season, his offense still fell into second-and-10-or-more 39.3% of the time — higher than the league average of 38.6% that year. And that was with Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. The issue is schematic and philosophical.

          1. You aren’t accounting for the possitive effects that the big plays on first down have on Kyle’s offense as a whole. It’s a bit unique to him, and it’s one reason why Bleacher Report ranked Kyle’s scheme #1 in the NFL in 2017.

            Let me guess, Bleacher Report is a plague, just like PFF?

            1. In other words, there’s more than one way to skin a cat.

              Just because most of the league struggles to gain yards and score consistently when their offense is in 2nd & 10 for 40+% of the time, or whatever percentage it is, doesn’t mean the same is true for Kyle’s offense. And that’s where your analysis fails.

              In other words, in this instance it’s not enough to simply point out that most of the league struggles when their offense is in 2nd & 10 for a percentage of time. You need to show how KYLE’S offense struggles as a result. But, of course you can’t, because in fact his offense doesn’t struggle to move the ball consistently, even in year like last year with so many injuries to key offensive personnel. Does that mean everything has been perfect? No, there have most certainly been problems, especially in the red zone. However, struggling to move the ball because they are too often in 2nd & long isn’t one of them. And the proof is in the offensive numbers as a whole. Total yards. Total first downs, Etc.

              1. In 2018, the 49ers averaged 5.37 yards per play on second-and-10-or-more. That ranked 25th out of 32 teams in that situation. Shanahan struggles more than most offensive coaches to move the ball consistently when he falls behind the chains. He does well when he can attack vanilla base defenses that must honor the run and the pass.

              2. If this were the case, then how is it that you made the case that Kyle has a problem closing out games? If his team is having trouble gaining yards, and sustaining drives consistantly, how is it that they are so often in a position to close out games in the 4th QTR? If Kyle’s offense is so negatively affected by constantly fighting from “behind the chains”, it only goes to reason that they would be constantly playing from behind, and not commonly in position to fail to close out games as you suggested very recently.

                You understand why these two points you’ve made are contradictive of one another, right?

  13. More on the AAF from a GM’s point of view. Yeah, it’s rosy write up, but I think it captures the core value the AAF offers. And Sebbie, since the AAF falls far below your elevated level of sophistication, your weekend is free for other pursuits.

    http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001017886/article/chargers-gm-tom-telesco-believes-aaf-is-a-great-idea?icampaign=trendingNews

    Weekend schedule (all times Eastern)…
    – Salt Lake at Birmingham, Saturday, 2 p.m., TNT
    – Arizona at Memphis, Saturday, 8 p.m., NFL Network
    – Orlando at San Antonio, Sunday, 4 p.m., CBS Sports Network
    – Atlanta at San Diego, Sunday, 8 p.m., NFL Network

  14. Niners have had a hard time. It is hard to win when their RB goes down on the last play of TC. It is even harder to win when the franchise QB tears his ACL. Unfortunate injuries have doomed this past season. However, injuries are part of the game. It is a war of attrition. Teams need to be able to handle adversity, and be resilient enough to absorb all blows.
    .
    Good teams have good depth. The Niners, rebuilding, did not have good depth. The Niners, with second and third stringers, coupled with their coaching, ended up with 4 wins. Could they have won more? Yes. Even KS admits he should have won 3 more games.
    .
    How could they have won more games? By being better organized. Better preparations. Better strategies.
    .
    Some have mentioned that the opposition will stack the box and dare the Niners to pass. The best counter to that strategy is to spread them out, and attack the edges. Niners should then execute bubble screens so the stacked box is out of the play, and the WR has only one man to beat. Once they spread them out wide, then they should gash them up the middle with a FB dive. In the SB, Rams should have run more jet sweeps, but did it once the entire game. Pats put both their RB and FB wide, Rams countered by putting their CBs on them, and left a LB on Edelman, creating a miss match. Pats shaped the Rams so they abandoned the run. Rams ran only 18 times for 62 yards.
    .
    The Niners should not run into the teeth of the defense. Hit them where they aint. Attack weaknesses, not strengths.
    .
    Niners should take advantage of the defensive speed by starting the RB going one way, letting the defense over run the play, then having the RB cut back on a counter. Niners should take advantage of a fierce pass rush by perfecting the screen pass. Niners should encourage the blitz, then attack the area the blitzer left with a quick slant, or avoid the blitz by rolling away from the blitz, or doing a quick outlet pass to the RB.
    .
    Above all, the Niners should not let the defense shape them. In the first Seahawk game, the Niners allowed the Seahawks to shape them by abandoning the run, and going pass happy. That made the Niners one dimensional, and easier to defend against. The Niners should present the threat to run or pass every play, so the defense has to defend for either the run or pass. That unpredictability will make the offense stronger, and defense weaker.
    .
    The Niners need to improve their situational play calling. When confronted with a second and short, they should not run the ball. They should do a play action pass and attack downfield. Even if it fails, it will still be third and short. If they can manage by varying the snap count to draw a defender offsides, they should instantly morph that play into a long strike down field, because it is essentially a free play. When confronted with third and long, a screen or draw may be more effective.
    .
    The Niners need to work on their clock management. Too many times, they did not consider time outs to be precious, and saved for legitimate challenges, and the last 2 minutes of each half. Too many times, the Niners had no sense of urgency while behind, and wasted time in the huddle, and sauntered up to the line of scrimmage. When behind, they should have gone no huddle with quick snaps. When ahead, sure, burn down the clock, but the Niners were rarely ahead. They should have been clever, and called 2 plays ahead of time, so they could run the hurry up offense. In fact, they should have designated plays ahead of time for specific situations, so every player would know what was going to be run, like when it is 4th and short with time running down. Instead of spiking the ball to stop the clock, run a predetermined play after faking the spike.
    .
    Game management is also critical. KS needed to be making assessments, so he could make quick adjustments. Instead, he was staring at the play sheet, trying to figure out what play to call. Instead of keeping his eyes down, he should have been studying his players to see which one looks tired or confused. He also should have been studying the defense, and seeing what personnel they are putting on the field. But no, he would rather play OC instead of being the HC.
    .
    The Niners are not far off from being competitive. However, they need to be more creative, efficient and focused. They need to stop the unforced errors. With better preparations, that can be accomplished. With better coaching, they can out maneuver the opposition. Clever coaches will out think the opponents, and make winning look easy. It will also help to have better talent, so a strong Free Agency and the draft is also critical for success.
    .
    Yeah, yeah, many have heard all this before. Some day, I hope the Niners implement these strategies. Actually, I am encouraged. Last season, after criticizing them for wasting time outs like drunken sailors, they stopped being so sloppy, and having those time outs in the last 2 minutes were critical for success.

    1. Holy Cow, Sebs!!!!!!!!!!!

      Actually, I was agreeing with you until they “need to be better organized, better this, that and some other.”
      If that was really the crux of the matter, why did Walsh have to draft Lott, Wright and Williamson in one draft-and out of desperation, start them all their rookie season?
      No way Walsh knew they were going to be that good, that quick.

      He did it for the same reason KS needs to do the equivalent–stop the bleeding late in the 4th qtr.

      1. Saw, I proposed that KS start 3 rookies in the back field. It took a lot of attrition, but he finally did it.
        .
        Maybe Walsh did it because Walsh was a visionary…..

    1. Ferguson having his invitation to the Combine rescinded is probably one of the biggest stories this week. Nailing him for an incident that took place during his freshman year in college showed a glaring issue with the rule established in 2016 that needs to be cleared up.

    1. The Raiders make more sense than the 49ers. The issue of whether Carr is worth his contract, how the draft picks, trade acquisitions, and free agent signings the Raiders make will impact the team, the final season in Oakland, whether Gruden will jettison another capable starter, and Gruden himself all seems more appropriate for Hard Knocks.

  15. Kaep settled his collusion case. Hope Grant puts up a new blog post so we can comment on it.
    .
    Guess the NFL had conceded defeat and did not want to risk voiding the CBA.
    .
    I wonder if this is why JH sang the witch is dead.

    1. >>Guess the NFL had conceded defeat and did not want to risk voiding the CBA

      Or Kaep’s counsel told him you aren’t winning this case, take the offered settlement and be done with it.

      1. Nope, they had written proof. NFL are cutting their losses, and I expect Kaep will be signed to a team as restitution.
        .
        My proof? Eric Reid was re-signed to a 3 year deal. If the collusion and blackballing was still in force, he would still be unsigned.

        1. Nope, they had written proof.

          Proof? LOL. Obviously the Panthers thought a great deal more of Reid than any team thinks of Kaep.

          If the collusion and blackballing was still in force, he would still be unsigned.

          That Reid was resigned indicates Kaep had no hand to play, so he took the settlement. Smart man, following counsel’s advice.

          1. Nope, the NFL is reported to be paying big bucks to bury all the emails and written evidence, that conclusively prove that Kaep was colluded and conspired against.
            .
            Keep up your delusional point of view, but the truth will eventually come out.

        1. One guy is reporting that some people are speculating on a figure. Seems legit. If that is the amount, maybe Keap can upgrade his NYC digs. That condo he has in a building overlooking nonstop Holland Tunnel traffic has to be the worst.

        2. I hadn’t heard those numbers. ESPN said something to the tune of 10… which would be low number settle for and I would consider that a loss for CK. 60-80 seems more likely if they are desperate to maintain the collective bargaining agreement.

  16. Good insight Grant. It won’t change how Shanahan appraoches the game though – his offense is all about explosive plays. But it does show the approach has some serious weaknesses.

    One point of note though. With your stats about teams that missed the playoffs with a poor first down success rate, it would be interesting to see how much of that comes down to the players rather than the scheme (i.e. for teams other than the 49ers, why was their 1st down success rate so low?).

    Also, I would be curious to know how the 49ers have fared on 2nd down (and 3rd) under JG compared to their other QBs the past two years. During that good run at the end of 2017 it seemed to me that JG was doing an excellent job of keeping the chains moving with fairly long 2nd and 3rd down completions. If you run an offense that can leave you in long second and third downs pretty often you need to have a QB (and offense) capable of making plays in those situations.

    1. On 2nd and long I like calling one of my bread-n-butter rushing plays to try and get us in 3rd and manageable.

    2. Here are the top 14 teams that faced second-and-10-or-more the most frequently in 2018:

      1. Falcons: 45.4%
      2. Jets: 44.2%
      3. Bills: 43.4%
      4. Giants: 43.2%
      5. Browns: 43.1%
      6. Buccaneers: 42.4%
      7. Cardinals: 42.3%
      8. Chiefs: 41.9%
      9. 49ers: 41.8%
      10. Packers: 40.6%
      11. Redskins: 40.6%
      12. Broncos: 40.2%
      13. Dolphins: 40.2%
      14. Bengals: 39.6%

      In 2018, when Garoppolo had the entire 49ers playbook at his disposal (unlike 2017), the 49ers averaged just just 4.93 yards per play on second-and-10-or-more. With Beathard, they averaged 5.22 yards per play in that situation. With Mullens, they averaged 5.90 yards per play in that situation.

      1. Oh boy, we’ve got a lot of work to do. I wonder if a player like Metcalf could help little Jimmy.

          1. Yes, they need to replace Garcon. Which is why they won’t get into a bidding war for Tyrell Williams this off season, even though every 49er fan seems to have a hard on for him.

            1. Yes, the Niners need a possession receiver. But, they also need upgrades all over their receiver depth chart, and Williams instantly would be their best receiver by far.

              1. And make Pettis and Goodwin redundant. Not going to happen. They want to see what Pettis can do.

              2. That’s a bad reason not to sign a very good receiver. On second-and-10 or more, the 49ers go to 11 personnel, so the possession receivers can be Kittle and the slot receiver.

              3. I don’t know what F/A wide receiver they will target, but I guarantee they’re gonna draft one. Probably day 2.

              4. “That’s a bad reason not to sign a very good receiver.”

                Actually its not. Williams (who is still more a good #3 WR with potential than very good WR btw) will be a hot commodity this offseason and won’t come cheap, due to supply/demand. Pettis is cheap and Goodwin relatively so. They clearly think a lot of Pettis. With limited resources it makes a lot of sense for them to see what they have in Pettis rather than replace him after his rookie season. Use those resources elsewhere where they know they don’t have much talent, such as edge, ILB, FS and CB.

              5. You’re wrong about Williams. He has the talent and skill of a No. 1 receiver. The 49ers have $68 million in cap space. They need all the good players they can get.

              6. I still believe Earl Thomas should be the top priority in F/A, followed by edge, corner and Ilb.

      2. “In 2018, when Garoppolo had the entire 49ers playbook at his disposal (unlike 2017)”. Yes, but what about 2017?

        2018 is very much an incomplete for JG. I said before the start of the season we should expect him to struggle early on. Nobody wants to listen, but those were his 1st 3 games playing in Shanny’s actual offense, with just one pre-season to learn it. Plus the pressure of expectation that comes with the contract and how he played in 2017. It seemed pretty obvious watching him he was playing tight and overthinking. 2017 is a better gauge of what he is like when playing loose and not overthinking things.

        1. 2018 Jimmy’s inexperience was on full display, because at times he looked like a deer in headlights.

        2. Maybe, but he wasn’t using Shanahan’s full, traditional offense in 2017. Shanahan was using lots of Patriots concepts to ease Garoppolo’s transition.

          1. Yes, which is why he looked more comfortable, and why that is a good gauge of what he looks like when playing loose and not overthinking things.

              1. Ryan 32 Wonderlic
                Garoppolo 29 Wonderlic

                This is the year Jimmy needs to show he’s comfortable, and in complete command of this offense.

              2. Shanahan didn’t change his tendencies. He just changed the way he worked his scheme to ease JG’s transition. It was Shanahan using some Pats concepts within his own football philosophy.

              3. Shanahan actually did change his tendencies. He called more high-percentage Patriots pass concepts on first and 10, which is why the 49ers faced second-and-10-or-more only 32.4% of the time during Garoppolo’s five starts in 2017. That was by far the lowest rate of Shanahan’s career, and in line with the Patriots averages. But, Shanahan still struggled in that situation, as the 49ers averaged only 4.60 yards per play on second-and-10-or-more when Garoppolo was the quarterback in 2017.

              4. Really? Well, I stand corrected. But why oh why didn’t Shanahan continue to incorporate that into his game plan last season? He should definitely have a think about his approach.

              5. Totally agree. As allforfunnplay wrote (yesterday?), it seemed as though Shanahan just dumped his entire playbook on Garoppolo last offseason, and Garoppolo struggled with it.

              6. Doesn’t make a lot of sense, does it (rhetorical question)? Hopefully Shanahan learns from it. Doubt it though.

          2. one wonders why, in early 2018, KS didn’t keep a large number of the Pats offensive concepts that made the 2017 5 game streak so exciting — adding more of his own concepts gradually as the ’18 campaign wore on…

            Might’ve kept Jimmy on the field for more of the season! Maybe even adding a couple more W’s to the ’18 W/L tally…

            Could it be KS’ obstinacy about 1st down chunk plays and OZ run schemes????

            Grant?

  17. Interesting article . I agree with much of it assuming the statistics are accurate.

    1. We must be more consistent on first down. 2-10 is less than ideal and 3-10 is worse.

    2. We need another RB who can withstand a 200 + carry workload. We have 3 Duke Johnsons but zero Nick Chubbs.

    3. Despite all of the good points in this article, the Niners averaged 360 total yards per game which was 16th best in the league. It was better than playoff teams Seattle, Chicago and Dallas. Houston and Philly average 362 and 365 respectively. So we are in the thick of things as far as moving the ball on offense. Scoring and especially Red Zone Scoring is another matter. It has been a major issue for the Niners for many years. It cost us Super Bowl and a trip to the Super Bowl. We have discussed it here ad nauseam I wonder if our front office and coaches have a plan to address it or are even aware ?

      1. We could have drafted Derwin in the first and traded up for Courtland Sutton or Calvin Ridley. That would have put us in much stronger position going into this draft.

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