An early prediction of 49ers’ record


It’s too early to predict how many games the 49ers will win next season and if they’ll make the playoffs for the first time since 2014.

It’s only April 22. The draft is five days away. We’ll have a much better sense of who the Niners are and how they’ll finish the season once they start training and practicing.

But waiting stinks. And this past Thursday the NFL released the 49ers schedule. So, for fun, let’s go through it week by week and pick which games the 49ers might win.

Click here to read the rest of my Sunday column.

This article has 424 Comments

  1. Week 10: We beat the Giants. This is the game that will solidify us as a contender. Just like 2011.

  2. The Rams quarterback, Jared Goff, seems incapable of running an NFL offense or reading an NFL defense. And their running back, Todd Gurley, seems uninterested in contact as he tiptoes toward the hole.

    Tiptoe through the tulips with Gurley by Tiny Todd;>)

    9 wins is an extremely tough marker to make for a team as poor as this one. 6 is more realistic in my view….

    1. Well considering every Air Raid QB drafted has failed, I would suspect that Goff has a long row to hoe and it’s very unlikely he’ll get to the end of it. But you never know.

    2. If the light goes on for Geoff, and I actually think it might, I’m guessing it will be late 2017 or in 2018 since he has to absorb a new system.

      1. Hey, after every Tedford QB failed, Aaron Rodgers broke the curse. So it could happen.

    3. People are underestimating the Rams. I expect Goff to play a lot better this year and the Rams to finish 6-10, including a split with the 49ers.

    4. Is it Todd Girly, or Girlie? Not only does he go down far to easily for a man his size, he’s not patient enough to let his running lanes develop, and he often fails to see them when they do.

      Todd Girly is an athletic track runner trying to be a RB, not a RB with track running athleticism.

    1. With the new Sheriff JAMAL ADAMS in town enforcing his brand of justice while leading this young defensive unit by example, on the field and in the locker room, I’m predicting the 49ers will go 6-10 (or best case scenario 7-9 if they catch some luck along the way), with a strong finish after their bye week, which will carry along with it confidence and momentum heading into the 2018 offseason!

      1. Does it Seb? With the completely inept, but lovable “good guy” Jim Tomsula, passing the torch to a HC who has in fact, not only been caught up to, but well surpassed by NFL defensive coordinators.

        All the while, allowing a total failure of a GM run your team into the ground, deep into the ground, with broken players and broken promises, who thinks he’s smarter than everyone else. Trent Baalke literally couldn’t pick a WR to save his life, I am certain of that. In fact, while he’s a “decent” defensive talent evaluator, he’s a “complete disaster” of an offensive talent guy, in fact, maybe the worse I’ve followed.

        The difference of say – 3 to 4 more W’s, compared to L’s, isn’t beyond reason Seb, when you’re talking the difference between utter and complete incompetence, as compared to a synergistic Head Coach/GM structured team, with the most current, up to date concepts. Shanahan and Lynch are considered among the highly respected, cream of the NFL crop, they really are.

        Now it’s time to prove it, but so far so good!

      2. 49, I totally agree with you about Baalke, he is the architect of that dysfunctional dumpster fire.

        However, I am not going to go all sunshine and rainbows, and predict the playoffs.

        I am advocating incremental advances. 6 wins is 3 times more than a 2-14 season, so I will be content. Maybe in 2018, they will get the QB they need and they can compete for the division.

        I also disagree with another poster about the NFC West. The Seahawks will be tough. If they get competent O linemen, they will be very competitive, and they will have Earl Thomas back.

        Cards are a very solid defensive team, and with a youthful and elusive QB, they will be looking at the playoffs.

        The Rams will be way better because they do not have Fisher. Addition through subtraction. McVay is young and innovative, so he might get Goff to play better. I see the Niners and Rams splitting their games.

        If you really are projecting a 9 or 10 win season, good for you. You are a good die hard faithful Niner fan.

        I guess I am a little jaded. I expected at least an 8-8 season, but was handed 2 measly wins with a tortuous 13 game losing streak.

        If Lynch manages to trade back, I will go with a 7 win season.

          1. OK, just saw 3 or 4 Ws compared to losses, and interpreted that as 9-7 or 10-6. My bad.

    1. Well We Play Seattle And Panthers In The Beginning You Say 6 Wins If We Beat Seattle Or Even The Panthers We WILL Beat The Texas Or The Eagles We Will Surprise Alot Of People Even YOU!!..Have Faith 9ERSSSS!!!

      1. You really aren’t providing anything to back up your bluster. The 49ers are still a huge work in progress. The defense is switching to a new scheme, and the offenses Shanahan has coached in the past usually struggled in its first season because of the complexity of the new scheme.

        1. Here are a few reasons,
          – more stable qb (balance and knows the system already)
          – more experience players (no rookies )
          Solid starters (Pierre Garcon, a multi tool fb, new qb, healthy, rb and a solid two option in high tower)


          Outside the team

          Seattle not as good as most would think we could beat them and almost did last year with a dysfunctional team. They have no oline and rb is okay at best)

          Cardinals old as dirt team and will be exposed again next year, they were 7-8 they are not good.

          Rams no qb, no system, new unproven coach, lost a lot of key denfensive players.

          49ers have one of the easier schedules. They have a coach who isnt gimicky. They may not be that good, but in comparison to everyone else we are not as bad as most think. There is talent there we just need a vision first. Let’s see how it plays out. I got them 8-8 at worst

          1. Your argument died horrifically the moment you said Seattle is not as good as most think while choosing to ignore the fact Seattle had already clinched the NFC West before they played against the 49ers the second time and that Earl Thomas was out for the season.

    2. They will beat the seahags the second time. Shanahan knows how to beat his D, and it isn’t just-and only-running it up the middle.

  3. Week 5: We won’t lose to the Colts. Luck is slightly overrated and they won’t be able to stop our WCO.

    Week 6: We probably win because of the reasons Grant mentioned. This team won’t fold just because it’s a road game.

    1. If Luck is overrated then that means there will never be a good QB in the draft. I think he’s the only real QB to be be drafted in 5 years

      1. “Luck is slightly overrated…”

        Slightly overrated = good but not on a par with Brady, Rodgers, and Brees.

        1. Luck is still living off his college hype. He’s not performing like an elite QB. His career completion percentage is the same as our departed QB. It’s time for him to show the goods starting his 5th season.

          1. Luck is another QB who shows how important it is to have a good supporting cast.

            It is also important to have a decent O line, or the QB may get pummeled.

            It is also crucial to have a competent GM. Grigson had delusions of grandeur, too.

            1. Seb

              “it is also important to have a decent Oline, or the QB may get pummeled.”

              A decent Oline is a luxury…NOT a guarantee…Part of what QBs get paid the “big bucks” for is to get pummeled. I E Kaepernick..lesson to be learned…Get rid of the ball quicker….

              1. Ore, it helps to have good receivers to throw to, also.

                It also helps to have competent coaching, and not assume DJs know all the answers.

  4. I’m predicting 4 to 5 wins, but it makes sense the 49ers will gel later in the season as players slowly absorb Shanahan’s offense.

  5. Goff is in a great position to succeed now. He will have a good coach to help him develop and they are starting to add good pieces around him.

    Whomever the 49ers draft at the QB position,with the right coach and supporting cast, they can develop into a franchise QB.

    Trubisky fella’s. He’s the guy.

    1. I hope so. If he is worthy of the pick, the consequences of getting this pick right would be so much better than if we hit on any other position. For some reason, 49ers fans on this blog seem reluctant to believe we could pick a Watson or Trubisky, and they could prove worthy, making the 49ers a perennial contender again.

      I could be wrong. I have never seen Trubisky play. I’m just hoping Shanahan sees a guy worth drafting.

      1. With Cousins waiting in the wings for free next year, and the bevy of franchise QBs in the 2018 draft, maybe the best strategy would be to fix the defense since this draft is deep in defensive talent.

        Trubisky has good skills, but he threw 2 picks his last bowl game. Maybe he needs more seasoning.

  6. Wow, Grant turned homer, predicting the playoffs.

    Since he invites disagreement, I wish to challenge him on his Rams prediction. I think they could easily split their games. Eagles at Philly will not be a pushover. Cards will likely sweep the Niners because they have a solid defense, and who knows if Palmer will last the year.

    Instead of 9 wins, that would make 6. Record- 6-10. I would be content because it shows improvement.

    Hope they are competitive, and efficient.

    1. Sure hope you grow a pair soon and you realize what football is really all about!

              1. I was trying to save you from saying a derogatory name, but you are doubling down. Go ahead.

            1. I un-nerve you so much, you tend to make spelling errors. I was surprised you misspelled a single word, but if that word is in your lexicon, I am not overly surprised.

              1. I wish to apologize to this site. I did not start this thread, and I cannot stop him from descending into the gutter.

                Hope we had some site decorum.

              2. Take it easy twinkle toes!
                Apologizing now? You should have apologized as soon as you got banned from NN and made your way here!

      1. Prime,
        I work with many gay high school kids. We tell them life will get better as they get older, they won’t experience the same hate as adults as they do in high school. We tell them adults tend not to be as cruel as kids are, please don’t make me a liar. I get it you don’t like Seb but if you have to call him names please don’t use hate speech, you are better than that.

            1. You California folk are way too sensitive.
              Seb I’ve always razzed you about your soft approach.
              Go cry in your pillow!

              1. I am a Californio, and proud of it. We do not hurl homophobic slurs and laugh it off.

                Prime, I will get down to your level so you will understand. Y’all need eddycashun.

              2. You said hat right Prime. A bunch of whiny people crying over hurt feelings. It is no longer the Wild West. It’s a soft spot in society and obviously has tons of people who will insult you and try to shut down your speech or opinion. Can’t wait to leave this once great state. Feelings. Lol

          1. prime,
            If I misinterpreted your remark I apologize its just that over the last 20 years or so I have had about 10 students or ex students who have committed suicide and at least 7 of them were gay so you are right I am a little hyper sensitive about the issue

            1. I’m sorry to hear that coach.
              I look at this blog like a football lockeroom. Sometimes things can get misconstrued and things are said in sports analogies and interpreted into political or social issues.
              My intention was to not insult the gay community.
              My intention was to razz Seb who once again makes this blog his platform to play his victim card when someone pushes his buttons.

        1. Old Coach……….

          is homosexuality in a persons biology, or is it behavior? I always ask, and never get a straight answer. because if its behavior, than any behavior can be justified-depending on a peoples morality-at that given moment in time. Remember N.A.M.B.L.A? North American man boy love association? My eldest brother has friends in San Fran who think NAMBLA is ahead of their time. He works with some of these folks.
          I’m not being a smart-arse-but I do want answers, where the premise follows the conclusion, and I never get any.. Just the usual “your a hater” this, and homophobe that.
          This thought is of course no excuse for cruelty. Every one of us is carrying a burden–obviously, we should all try to lighten each others load……………………

          1. saw,

            I imagine it is a matter of taste. Some people like Pepsi, some like Coke, and some like both.

            I don’t think it’s something that needs to be justified and should never be compared to the group you mentioned. Homosexuality exists throughout the animal kingdom.

            Why do you think homosexuality is something that needs to be justified?

            1. #80………….

              i am an inquisitive guy by nature. A man trying his best to be feminine with a fake lisp looks clumsy to me. A woman who crops her hair and wears clothes of a masculine nature looks clumsy to me.
              I know the guys brain is wired approximately like mine, as apposed to a womans, with a testosterone count in the same neighborhood. The woman who dresses like a man and tries her best to be one has a brain and the chemical composition of one.
              I don’t understand any of it. Probably should read more about ancient Greece or Rome, as homosexuality grew near the end of their civilizations.
              Homosexuality exists throughout the animal kingdom, as do a great many other things. I would rather not emulate them, either.
              I want the answers to a great many things, but critical thinking is frowned upon in this country.

              1. saw,

                I don’t have all the answers on this subject. It you want a better understanding, you should spend time with gay people.

                I think you would find that you have more in common than you think. From my experiences gay people want the same things as I do. Family, friends, shelter, financial security, etc.

                It’s only sexual orientation and perhaps style that is different from myself.

          2. sawbrodie:
            The latest science on sexual orientation:
            ** Expanding the LGBTQ Conversation:
            Here’s What We Know About the Science of Sexual Orientation! Sexual orientation isn’t just about X and Y chromosomes.
            ** People who are attracted to others of the same sex develop their orientation before they are born. This is not a choice. And scientific evidence shows their parents cannot be blamed. Research proving that there is biological evidence for sexual orientation has been available since the 1980s. The links have been emphasized by new scientific research.

            1. Thanks GEEP……

              That right there is more info than anybody has ever given me. You realize there is other science that disputes this.
              That’s what I’m getting at-what is the correct answer? I’ve almost given up looking for the answer to this one. I figure if a person is respectful of me, I’ll certainly be respectful of them……….
              But contrary to what the fascists want-those that would deny free speach-I’m going to keep asking questions politely, be they pleasant or not. Nothing would make a government happier-a citizenry that keeps its mouth shut.

          3. Nowadays, I assume that people who think homosexuality is simply a “choice”, are either swayed by their religious beliefs, or haven’t had the pleasure to personally forge a platonic relationship and get to know any gay men or women. Either that, or they have been living in a cave on the outskirts of nowhere.

            1. 49reasons……….

              Its not that simple. Passing judgement is easy. Finding out where a person is really coming from requires empathy. Its just not that black and white.


    1. Would be 7 and 9, but we’re overdue for a natural disaster…or Godzilla stomping through Redwood City…

  7. Some early optimism from Grant? This is a 5 win schedule at best imo. We’ll see how things look after the draft but this team isn’t going from 2 wins to 9 unless they have an historically good draft class.

    1. Realistically I see their record as 4-12 but could see it as high as 7-9 but that is if a lot of things go right and lately things have not gone well for this team. Perhaps the law of averages will mean that things will change but who knows…

    2. Rocket remember this is the season every year where the realists get anihilated for not going all fan boy over the new coaches. I think 5 wins on the low end 7 on the high end. Hoyer and Barkley can’t do much more than that.

  8. Of course, it would help to see how the draft unfolds. If they manage to trade back, they might even get 7 wins.

  9. Ooooooh…9-7 eh? That would be great, but I think 8 wins would be a great year (at least considering last season. 49ers go 8-8, but they are on the right trajectory

  10. A team with Brian Hoyer under center doesn’t win nine games.

    5-11 with 4-5 4th quarter losses


    “Washington’s John Ross garnered 6-of-16 first-place votes from NFL scouts polled on this year’s top wide receiver prospect.”

    “He got more first-place votes than Western Michigan’s Corey Davis (5 1/2) and Clemson’s Mike Williams (4 1/2), although Davis emerged as the No. 1 “points” getter in the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s poll, which used scouts’ rankings and not just first-place votes. The points system placed East Carolina’s Zay Jones at a distant fourth in this year’s wideout class, and USC’s JuJu Smith-Schuster at fifth. Eastern Washington’s Cooper Kupp finished sixth, Ohio State’s Curtis Samuel seventh, and Texas A&M’s Josh Reynolds came in eighth. “It’s the worst wide receiver class I’ve seen in a long time,” said one NFC executive.”

      1. I’ve been thinking none of them are worth even a Top-15 and Williams should be a second rounder. But if I took one, I’d take Corey Davis.

        1. What if we could walk out of round one with Trubisky and Cory Davis?
          If we could orchestrate a deal with the Jets at #6 this would be the dream draft!

          1. If the Jets came up, wouldn’t it be for Trubiskey?
            You’ve been promoting him for some time now. There is a chance Lynchahan grab him, but at the moment I’m guessing that’s an outside chance. I noted that one article opined he’s the only 1st round QB this year. Rarity drives up price.
            I think you’re the only here pushing him at 2, so if SF grabs him you’ll have some bragging rights. We’ll see soon enough.

  12. I have a feeling I’m going to have to eat my words later but I agree for the most part with Grant. I think if they draft well their D will be far better next year and just the presence of KS will make the O better. I see a record of 7-9 to 9-7 and I’m leaning towards the better record. One thing I know is true is I certainly feel far more optimistic this offseason than either of the last two.

  13. Context qualified at the outset I really like this article.
    I have no clear idea of its efficacy.
    My clueless pre-draft ouiga board hunch:
    If a late season run made, maybe 7-9.
    I yam, of course, and unapologetically, a hopeless Homer.
    Ciao Bella!

  14. The more I watch Peterman and the more complex offense he ran I’m thinking he may be perfect for Shanny. Maybe in the 3rd round.

    1. Maybe 3rd round like Joe too:)

      Like that he can run the offense from under center & multiple formations

  15. I can’t believe that this site brought a new word into my urban vocabulary-“pufster”

    I’m hoping I do not see this one again. Let’s try to step up our game on this site. Insulting ones football acumen (or lack theteof) is fair game, but slurs cross the line IMHO

  16. Shout out to you Wild Bill. I like the way you’re thinking.

    Your general philosophy is right in line with mine. We’ve spent a lot of early round draft capitol on our defensive line and we have other front 7 players (or front 8) on this roster who have a lot of potential (A. Lynch, R. Blair, Q. Dial) as well as a pretty good run stuffing NT in E. Mitchel. I also see some potential in the kid penciled in at backup NT C. Jones. A. Brooks has proven to be a hard guy to replace because he’s got talent. And we still can’t absolutely write off C. Carradine or E. Harold. Without question we’ve still got work to do up front, in fact I’d like to see the 49ers draft another NT in the mid rounds, and a true pass rushing DE is a must if A. Lynch can’t get his act together and fully commit to reaching his full potential.

    But what I really want for this defense is to find some super stars for our defensive backfield and turn our DB’s into the neo-version of the legion of boom, and one of the top units in the league. I think Rashard Robinson fits. I truly believe Jimmie Ward can be the 49ers version of Earl Thomas. If nothing else, I’d like to see what he can do at that position this season. I think Dontae Johnson can be a viable reserve on the outside. W. Redmond is a question mark in the slot, but I do love his college tape, and K. Williams has some talent and experience .

    We need another top flight physical CB who’s strength is bump and run, man coverage and, perhaps more than anything else, we need JAMAL ADAMS, who checks every box on Kyle Shanahan, John Lynch and Robert Saleh’s list for the kind of “in the box Safety” that can, and will tranform this defense nearly instantaneously. Jamal Adams is as sure of a bet to reach All-Pro status as any defensive player in this draft, and he might be the very player ShanaLynch and Saleh covet more than any other to transform this defense.

    We know Kyle is a QB whisperer who knows what he wants in an NFL QB and has the track record at that position to give him the benefit of the doubt (M. Trubisky is the only guy, IMO, who just might be worth a top 10 pick, given Kyle’s ability to develop quarterbacks regardless of experience, so I would never eliminate drafting a QB in round one, especially if they trade back). But we don’t know for certain what Kurt Cousins intentions are or whether he will do whatever he needs to do to play for Kyle, so it’s a tough situation to figure out from the outside. And a generational, game-changing RB, or WR with the potential to be a top 5 NFL Wideout (I’ve got another draft crush on Corey Davis), is another long shot possibility.

    But for my money, without question, Jamal Adams is a better option than Solomon Thomas, Malik Hooker, Marshon Lattimore, or any other potential top 10 prospect and he’s got to be the pick if the 49ers are drafting at #2, with M. Garrett off the board!

    And with Jamal Adams acting as Sheriff Adams, and leading this young defensive unit by example, on the field and in the locker room, I’m predicting the 49ers will go 6-10 (or best case scenario 7-9 if they catch some luck along the way), with a strong finish after their bye week, which will carry along with it confidence and momentum heading into the 2018 offseason!

    Book it Wild Bill!

  17. Grant, can you make a Pro comparisons post of the top quarterbacks and maybe top ten draft players?

  18. That picture on the top reminded me of my burger.
    Two fluffy buns on the outside and a thin patty in the middle….

  19. Mock with 3 trade backs.

    Niners will trade back with the Browns, Ravens and Broncos. Browns will offer pick numbers 12, 52 and 65, along with a 2018 second round pick, for the second pick so they can draft Trubisky.

    Niners will trade that number 12 pick to the Ravens for their pick numbers 16 and 78. It balances out perfectly in the TVC. Ravens want to leapfrog over 3 teams to get the player they covet. Niners sweeten the deal by giving back their pick number 198.

    Niners trade the 16th pick for the Broncos pick numbers 20 and 82. Broncos want to trade up because Christian McCaffrey is rated at 16, and they promised to get him. The Niners are doing a favor for the Broncos, so the TVC is 30 points in their favor, or they can give them pick number 161.

    The Niners end up with pick numbers 20, 34, 52, 65, 66, 78, 82, 109, 143, 146, 202 and 219.

    Using the CBS draft Board and trying to pick within 5 points of the ranking, the Niners could select-

    20- Zach Cunningham OLB
    33- Charles Harris DE
    52- Raekwon McMillen ILB
    65- Jordan Willis DE
    66- Dalvin Tomlinson DT
    78- Zay Jones WR
    82- Davis Webb QB
    109- Justin Evans SS
    143- D’Onta Foreman RB
    146- Howard Wilson CB
    202- Eric Saubert TE
    219- Stevie Tu’ikolovatu NT

    2 DE, OLB, ILB, DT, WR, QB, SS, RB, CB, TE and NT.

    First 5 picks on defense. Moved back 20 spots, but garnered 7 out of the top 82 picks. 8 on defense. 4 on offense. Niners may also want to trade back from pick numbers 34 and 66.

    Haason Reddick, Jabrill Peppers, Reuben Foster, Corey Davis, John Ross, Mike Williams, David Njoku, Keven King, Malik McDowell. Taco Charlton and Gareon Conley could also be possibly available at 20.

    If Lynch could pull this off, the Niners would have hit a grand slam.

    Niners may go 8-8 with this draft.

    1. Rookies have very little impact generally speaking. They will win some and cost some and aside from Webb and Jones there are few big generators on the list. So I don’t see how you can make such a prediction.

          1. East, maybe you do not remember, but this team went 2-14.

            On such a poor team, there might be 5 players who might start or contribute right away. it is not inconceivable that those players may help the team win 2 more games.

            You are just dissing this mock just to oppose me. Other posters would tell you that if the Niners managed to pull off that mock, it would be a bonanza. Of course, they would also say that it is improbable, but getting 7 players in the first 82 picks is a good thing, not a bad thing.

              1. Funny, I have been excoriated, mocked, insulted and have had expletives hurled at me.

                Where is the love?

              2. Look at your condescending attitude as if I don’t remember last season and then taking on the mantle of the poor martyr. Please…cry me a river Seb.

                Fact is with the turnover this team has had it is very much like a new franchise in many ways and that does not bode well for the record.

              3. Considering you seem to be talking like the Niners made the playoffs last year, I feel perfectly fine telling you that the team went 2-14 last year.

                Expect major turnover, and I hope Lynch can draft players who will immediately help.

                ‘Rookies will have very little impact generally’. How trite. You wrote that. I certainly did not. On a 2-14 team, the draft will be crucial, and picking the right players will make all the difference.

                Condescending? Well at least I do not hurl insults ad nauseum like you do.

            1. Seb……
              I’ll tell you why i think your wrong-unless I’m missing something.

              Your old buddy bulky also liked quantity-but his talent evaluations, on their best day, were beyond horrible.
              Shouldn’t we go for quality over quantity? This team needs blue chippers in the very worst way…”cant miss” players who make an immediate impact.
              Yes, our first pick traded down some spots would be a good thing, probably-for reasons you have stated. But not again and again just to get more and more picks at lower levels.

              1. Saw. Baalke is not my buddy, and I hated his draft strategies.

                Also, trading back is not only a Baalke move. Bill Walsh did that in the 86 draft, and despite what some said, he drafted a SB team.

                Multiple trade backs to accumulate picks in the second and third rounds is a sound strategy, if they determine the Draft is deep enough with good talent to acquire.

                Since this draft is so deep, they are saying that there is first round talent all the way up to pick 50. Lynch just needs to be shrewd enough to mine the sweet spot of the draft.

                No, I am not advocating getting more 6th and 7th round picks. In fact, the Niners should possibly bundle picks and players, and try to move up into the second and third rounds.

                If they do trade back with Cleveland, they might get the 33rd and 65th picks. Since the Niners have the 34th and 66th picks, they may want to trade back several spots to garner even more picks in the third and 4th rounds and spread out the picks so players can be acquired throughout the draft board.

                My draft strategy is to trade back, and get more bodies, If there are 7 players in the first 100 picks, it does not matter if one or 2 are busts because 5 or 6 players will be successes. However, if there are only 3 picks, and one or two of them do not pan out, there may be only one or two successes.

                Calling a player elite and cant miss may not be wise, because for every success, there will be players like Jamarcus Russell.

                I think that the Niners could get starters all the way up to 120.

                To me, the sweet spot of the draft is from 33 to 96. The first round is a given, but JuJu Smith Schuster is ranked 96, so he is the top end of the sweet spot. IMO.

                Since the team is 2-14, any pick in the first 100 players should be upgrades. The players in the 4th and 5th rounds may contribute, and the later rounds will provide TC competition and depth.

                I have full confidence in Lynch, KS, Adam Peters and Martin Mayhew.

                Why? Because they are not Baalke.

        1. Are you ESL? Because ‘generally speaking’ is a qualifier. Here, let UNC explain it:

          Qualifiers and intensifiers are words or phrases that are added to another word to modify its meaning, either by limiting it (He was somewhat busy) or by enhancing it (The dog was very cute). Qualifiers can play an important role in your writing, giving your reader clues about how confident you feel about the information you’re presenting. In fact, “hedging” (as it is sometimes called) is an important feature of academic writing, because academic writers need to clearly indicate whether they think claims are certain, likely, unlikely, or just false. But excessive use of qualifiers can make you sound unsure of your facts; it can also make your writing too informal.

          1. Moses, it’s a blog. It’s informal writing. Didn’t realize we were being graded on academic scale. I used generally speaking because it isn’t always true of rookies. Yes, it is a hedge, if you will, since not every rookie struggles. I’m not making blanket statements. Btw, English in fact is not my first language though, but that should not bear into the discussion at all.

            1. East,

              It looks to me, as a latecomer to this conversation, that Moses was addressing sebnynah’s inability to parse nuanced statements, not your original use of the qualifier, ‘generally speaking’. I agree that the “Are you ESL” comment was unnecessary, but it does appear to be directed at sebnynah, not you.

              As an aside, just so you all know, I always grade everyone’s posts. I have stacks and stacks of printouts charting every grammatical error, stylistic infelicity, and fallacious (or just plane poorly crafted) argument presented on this board since mid-2012. The mean blog commentator grade currently sits at a 62.7 out of 100.

              Nah, just kidding. I would not have time to work, eat, or sleep, much less relax, if I tried to do that on this, or any, blog. ;-)

              1. Sorry about that JPN and Moses. Was a bit tired last night and perhaps a bit in edge. Wondered why Moses was questioning my language usage, lol. Always enjoy your posts and corrective actions.

                Surprised the grading sits that high. Considering I use an iPhone and am rushing between engagements I am surprised that the commentator grade isn’t lower.

              2. That is actually one of the things I like about this blog, East. For the most part, the commentators are articulate and thoughtful. Many make supportable, cogent arguments with relatively low reliance on logical fallacies (especially for a sports bog, which are usually second to only political blogs for the distribution of fallacious arguments). Sadly, the average quality of the blog has diminished in the last year and a half, but it is still higher than average, I believe.

              3. Let’s raise the dialogue up! You are among the great voices. We need your input!

      1. Guess you are dissing Grant. He really likes Zach Cunningham.
        Larry Kreuger pointed out Charles Harris and Jordan Willis as special players.

        My RB is bigger than yours, and ran a 4.45 forty, whiles yours ran a 4.8.

        You have Latimore, who is injury prone, and Watt.
        I have Cunningham , Harris, McMillen, Willis, Tomlinson and Webb. Which mock is stronger? We both have Jones. My mock gets 3 times more players than you do in the first top 100.

  20. Good article Grant, I agree for the most part but I do disagree about your analysis of the Titans, the d needs help and they need a big time receiver, but the o line is solid and I really believe Mariotta is the real deal at qb. I see this team making noise in 2017. I think they get a good receiver and stud defender in this draft. I actually hope they reach for a player and trade the 5th and 18 th pick to the nines but I believe they are too smart for that. I am saying “could” but Seattle could collapse faster then you think, some of their draft picks are not panning out.

  21. Most likely: 4-12 +/-2 error

    Kyle Shanahan hires an OC at the end of the year as he realizes he cannot be a HC and an OC.

  22. I see from 7 to 9 wins as a realistic possibility. The team will emerge from the draft improved at almost every position, and probably will add a couple of final acquisitions in the final pre-53 league cuts. The 49ers will be quite competitive this year and enjoyable to watch. Actual QB efficiency will be considerably improved. They may have an outside chance at a wildcard spot although that would be a phenomenal stretch. With from 7 to 9 victories and several close competitive games to measure against they will re-establish themselves as a solid playoff contender in 2018. And let me add with a smile, I think the schedule favors us and I am a life-long optimist.

    1. Andes, they’ll definitely be more fun to watch, but they’ll be hobbled all season by weaknesses on both the OL and front 7 (or 8) which they can’t entirely fix in the draft, and both the offense and defense will be learning new schemes from scratch. Could play out in a way eerily similar to Bill Walsh’s first season with the Niners.

      1. BB, you are right in that assessment, and this draft is not particularly strong in OL from what I’ve read. However, I think they’ll take a flyer on one or two OL in the final rounds and UDFA’s and also poaching some of the final pre-53 league cuts. Watching how this actually plays out will be interesting, to be sure . . .

    2. I concur “Andes”! If the team is competitive and entertaining to watch, I would consider anything over 6 wins a successful year…

  23. East
    Agree on the rookies in any draft scenario. How many make the 53? 5? 6? Maybe 3 to the PS if they clear waivers. How many contribute right away? It’s difficult for the draft to make a difference in wins their first year for a rebuilding team.

      1. Typically, not germane to the topic in any way. Another useless unsolicited comment. White noise from the Seblomaniac.

  24. Exactly. We expect so much from them and it is a rare rookie that will have the kind of impact that Dak had or Lott had. Those are exceptions not rules.

    1. Dak Prescott’s impact was entirely due to playing behind the best OL in the league, with one of the best running backs and outstanding receivers. Roger Staubach could come out of retirement and win a few more games as the Dallas QB with that team.

      Lott was simply the best defensive back of his era, and supported by a good veteran (Dwight Hicks), two nice draftees (Eric Wright and Carlton Williamson), plus a couple of great veterans in Hacksaw Reynolds and Fred Dean. The success of the West Coast offense forced opponents into passing games that played to the Niners’ defensive strengths. And the rest is history.

      1. I think you are underestimating the inmate strengths of Dak and Ronnie. I do not suggest that the supporting cast played a huge role in their success but Jerry Rice struggled a bit his rookie year as have other rookies while no one could have predicted the impact that Dak or Lott had. Or even Russell Wlson had. Kudos to all of them! But they are exceptions not the rule. Most rookies have minimal impact and struggle their first year as they learn to make the transition.

        1. At the time when Lott was a rookie, the db backfield was known as “Dwight hicks and the hot licks” Dwight had been in the league but Eric Wright, Carlton Wilamson were all rookies. Every one assumed Dwight was the brains but interviews he talked about how smart Ronnie was and he could anticipate like nobody’s business and then lay the wood down. He studied all the time and was involved with people that made him better. Very rare for rookies to be this good that fast. Good points EastCoast9er!

      2. I beg to differ. With no QB the year before because Romo went down, the Cowgirls were 4-12.

        Dak made a huge difference.

        Please do not compare other players with Ronnie Lott, because he is a Hall of Famer and very special. One of a kind with his hitting, in a different era.

  25. Wow, did grant just write a mostly positive article about the 49ers?

    How unusual…. Did you get lucky on Grindr last night Grant?

  26. sebnynah

    April 22, 2017 at 6:36 pm

    6-10. Triple the win totals, that sounds optimistic

    From bring back Tomsula, Kelly and ‘Ol Windup’ in a storm to this prediction.

    Your hatred for Shanahan for firing ‘Ol Windup’ is palpable and defines you as ‘a hater’.

    Save us all, and go root for your Raiders this season, Seb.

    1. In the 1970’s, having grown up across the park from Kezar (around Haight/ashbury) I was an avid Niner fan.

      Brodie to Washington was what I remember until Montana to Rice.

      I’m starting to sense similarities in the vibes of all those teams with the way Shanahan and Lynch aggressively approached free agency.

      Walter Football (the King) is even confused with where the 49ers will go on draft day.
      First they started their mocks with the 49ers drafting Trubisky. Then they got on board the King Thomas Train. Now they’re mocking Fournette to the Niners.

      Shanahan and Lynch have done a marvelous job of preventing Jed and Paraage from leaking their intentions and but a plug in the dam leak.

      Now fans don’t know which way Shanny will go come draft day….Finally, someone who can play the draft game, so far, as well as all the poker pllayers.

      That alone brings me to my predicition. If they can beat the pros at the above draft poker games (even Walter Football) then they can beat the teams on the field.

      2017 San Francisco 49ers: 9-7

        1. And one final comment about this, Seb, before regular season.

          You have been tripling down on your attempts to bring back the Tomsula, Kelly and Kap duo (because Kelly likes running QB’s not passing QB’s–something, for some strange reason you’ve never quite grasped–along with your pal, OregonNiner–who should have moved on with Chip also).

          This is not what a healty minded 49er fan does when modern replay technology is there for the replay.

          This is why you are excoriated and achieved persona-non-grata status as a 49er fan….You deny all visual evidence to the contrary and ‘STILL’ want the Niners to go with the loser group above.

          Enjoy your Raiders this season , Seb. Leave us to positively predict something happening nice for the San Francisco 49ers this season…Cheers, Niners !!!


          1. TrollD, since you keep bringing up Kaep and flinging him in my face, I will respond. I have moved on, and have refrained from bringing him up until some one talks about him, but you seem to be begging me to talk about him.

            Who knows what will happen with all the QBs. This draft will decide if a team can address their QB situation solely through the draft, but several FAs will eventually wind up on a team if they miss out on their targeted QB.

            Kaep, Cutler, Fitzpatrick and RGIII, and even Blaine Gabbert, will find not only backup roles, but starting jobs, too.

            The Jets, Texans and Browns all need starting QBs. The Niners, Bills, Bears, Washington, Jags, Broncos and Rams could all use QB help. 10 teams.

            The Chargers, Steelers, Cards, Saints, Chiefs, Dolphins, Raiders, Giants and Patriots all have either aging QBs or injured QBs. 9 teams.

            Who knows? Maybe Kaep will be blackballed by the other teams and be forced to return to the Niners. Certainly, he will be an upgrade from Hoyer, and I still believe that KS is competent enough to take any QB, and making him better.

            Sure, I have been advocating KS hiring an OC, because Bill Bellichick, who I consider on a level with Bill Walsh, has the acumen to see the need for an OC, and McDaniels helped win a SB.

            Seeing that Chip dos not have a job, and he is getting paid anyways, he would be a logical choice. Sure, there are egos involved, but if they really want to win, they will subsume their egos and all work towards a common goal, which is winning games. Chip does have a good offensive mind.

            I do not need to advocate for Tomsula to come back. He already has a job, and he looked happy at the combine.

            Sure am glad that Lynch has left open the door for Kaep to return, and while I want him to return just to kick his detractors in the teeth, I think he has moved on and will play elsewhere.

          2. Tumd

            How nice that you give everyone your pedigree of where you were born and raised; its proximity to Kezar etc. before you begin sending posts critical of everything ‘niner as well as ‘everyone niner. To my knowledge, nobody on here elected nor appointed you as voice of the blog toady, so back off on the personal stuff…you do not disguise it well…It’s about football…talk football….

    2. TrollD, I am predicting an improvement. If I hated the team, I would predict zero wins.

      I have moved on from Kaep. Obviously, you have not, which defines you as a hater, not me.

      Calling me a Raider fan is a vicious slur.

      1. I will back off if you stop dissing coach Shanahan for not hiring an OC when he had no chance at quality coaches after the SuperBowl.

        That was not his fault.

        Continue this faulty argument at the risk of my wrath.

        1. Bah, bring it on. I laugh at your threats.

          TrollD, you seem to think it is OK to counter my mild advice for the Niners to stop shooting themselves in the foot, by wildly conjuring up ideas about breaking into gun safes or grabbing an assault weapon from Aldon, and creating nightmares.

          I cannot take seriously a fool who wanted to trade Kaep for Tebow, even with a million picks.

          1. Those laughs you hear are bloggers shrieking in horror that none of your mock drafts appear on the 49ers roster

          2. And after the recent rash of public shootings including the latest manhunt, I notice you’re doubling down on guns again.

            I would expect no less than you, but I know how low you can set the bar.

            1. No, you are the gun nut that went ballistic. I just bring it up because I want to budgeon you with your own words.

              Keep attacking me, I have a good counter punch.

            2. TrollD, I am advocating an assault weapon ban while you are the one who seems to think that breaking into gun safes and creating nightmares is a fun way to attack me.

              With all these gun incidents, you went way overboard. In fact, you went all gun nut on me, right after Orlando.

              1. Seb,

                Please don’t include me in your gift for gun calendar dates last year.
                The fact that you can bring it up so quickly off your rolodex of tradgedies you created makes this blog quake.

              2. I think I will reference your obsession about guns until you stop addressing me.

                Not too long ago, you, TrollD wrote about conjuring nightmares by accessing Aldons gun collection, wanting to create more Heartaches , laughing and joking about it.

                Why? Just because I want the Niners to stop shooting themselves in the foot. Somehow, just because I made a gun reference, you went ballistic and started spewing out sick gun fantasies, and attacked me by implying that I was the one bringing them up.

                TrollD, quit trolling me so I can go back to the draft.
                Address me in any way , like the S_B reference or the Kaep lover screed, and I will just keep bringing up how sick and twisted your thinking is about guns, and I know exactly what you wrote, so do not bother denying it.

                I tried ignoring you, but you seem persistent. Guess I will fight fire with fire.

                TrollD, I do not know why I get the loonies, but now some one is hurling homophobic slurs at me.

                I tried to deflect his hate, and gave him way out, but he, like you, just doubled down.

                No, posters like you are what make this site quake. Casting aspersions about breaking into gun safes and creating nightmares just amply demonstrates how sick you are. First you attack me, and then my family. It just makes you slime in my eyes. What is worse is you accusing me of being a Raiders fan. Only a troll would stoop to that level.

                I am a die hard faithful Niner fan. Had season tickets for years. Saw in person The Catch. Love the Niners and wish they would win multiple more rings.

                Accusing me of being a Raiders fan is beyond the pale, and you should be banned forthwith. A real Niner fan would not attack a fellow Niner fan unless he had a sick twisted attitude.

                I thought there was some site decorum, but you and the other haters, have crossed that line.

              3. Seb you sound like a teen age girl holding a grudge.
                Untwist your gonch and get over yourself!

              4. Prime, going to spew more homophobic slurs?

                Sure is an interesting way to razz me since I am happily married with 3 kids.

              5. You should change your attitude around here and maybe things will change for you.
                I told you when you first came on here, that bravado pompous attitude will only lend you strife. You didn’t listen.
                So don’t cry now lefty loafers!

              6. SMH, I really do not need an attitude adjustment. I just think you need a time out.

              7. sebnynah

                April 23, 2017 at 6:29 pm

                I think I will reference your obsession about guns until you stop addressing me.

                Not too long ago, you, TrollD wrote about conjuring nightmares by accessing Aldons gun collection, wanting to create more Heartaches , laughing and joking about it.

                TomD’s Take:

                Debate by addition, subtraction or lies, Seb. All know your (3) go to debate strategies.
                Never have I laughed about another’s tragedies.

                As posted below. You proved your cravenness with your rolodex of tragic ‘g’ related crimes ready at the tip of your tongue.

                I prefer to dwell in classic literature, write my limericks, etc., etc.

                I also posted not to engage you in these ‘g’ discussions, but now I see I have to add one caveat: I’ll correct any of your lies for the record.

        2. Shanny will bring in an OC year 2, after he’s installed his offense. Makes more sense for a guy with Kyle’s OC pedigree, IMO.

          1. What makes you say that, 49? Has he given any indication that he would move in that direction at a given point or something in his character that would clue you in to the probable steps he would take to choosing an OC?

  27. According to Bleacher Report’s Jason Cole, the 49ers (No. 2), Titans (No. 5), Jets (No. 6) and Bills (No. 10) have all made calls about moving down in the first round

    That’s why I keep saying the trade-down scenarios are very implausible. The draft is deep, especially at CB and EDGE, but it’s not anywhere near elite. I just don’t see the four-to-six elite talents that it would take to get teams to want to move up in this draft.

    1. It takes 2 to tango, but if the owner of the Browns wants Trubisky even though Hue and his staff wants Garrett, who do you think will prevail?

      The trade back option may be good for several teams, but every team will covet a player just out of reach.

      The trick is to be able to find the willing partners, and Lynch has made a smart move to invite all proposals. If Lynch is shrewd, he will get the job done.

    2. That’s bad news. I was hoping the Jets were looking to trade up. The more teams willing to trade down, the lower the offers for pick 2. Are only hope is some team’s nuts about Trubisky.

      1. I’m really hoping that two things happen in this draft;

        a) the 49ers trade back
        b) they draft Solomon Thomas

        Nothing to do with personal endorsement I’m just genuinely worried about B2W and Razor if they don’t. Brodie has put nearly as much energy into the team trading back as Razor has in pimping his draft crush.

        We need to have anti-depressants on hand at their respective domiciles and make sure all the sharp objects have been removed before Thursday night.

        1. CFC – Will have Ooling tea and cigar fired up. (seriously, it works). We will keep Healdsburg and Calistoga mellow respectively.

          1. Gorilla Glue has always worked for me. I’m on board any selection, but reserve my rights as a 49ers citizen to voice any and all concerns I might have…;>)

            1. Some trolls have accused you of being me, but I am diametrically opposed to you. I dislike Gorilla glue so much, I gave it all away.

              Mango Haze FTW. ;p

              I also like Pepsi. Coke leaves a metallic after taste in my mouth.

              1. “Hambuggy! Cheesebuggy! No Coke, Pepsi. You wanna Pepsi?
                Two Pepsi! Two mo hambuggy, two mo Pepsi. Yo wanna chips?”

            2. I’m a toe teedler (had a wee bit too much fun in the 70s if you know what I mean). Stogie+Oolong is as heavy as I go.

              But my area is lousy with weed farms. A bunch of pot plants fell off a truck on Mill Creek road. Little old lady scooted them out of the way so could get by.

              1. Hilarious!
                “De colas keep a fallin’ offa de Twuk, Jefe!
                I ainta Lyin’! Dey wuz dere, den dey wuznt.
                Weez gwonna need a bigga twuk.”

            3. I’ve personally jumped off the “King of hype” Solomon hype train for more practical reasons CfC.

        2. I’m not so much worried about the Niners standing pat. Its the yo-yo’s that will scream “reach” or “should have traded back”, somehow implying every GM has a magic red trade-back button on his desk, and Lynch somehow forgot to press it.

        3. Ha! Ive never gone all ‘Jets Fan’ or ‘Eagles Fan’, but there have been some moments:
          -Wow, so they did that…. Armistead
          -Oh Yeah! (Stuckey, Lott, BY, Newberry, Andre Carter not Dexter, Kwame Harris for which I apologize, Vernon, Reid)
          -Wait, what? Who dat? AJ Jenkins/Todd Shell
          -Hmm, ookaaay…..I…..guess…../ Druckenmiller
          -Solid. AD/Iupati/Plummer
          -Called it! Aldon
          -Reach. Dexter Carter
          -A bit over-priced. Jerry Rice

          The reactions reveal my draft day bias at the time

          1. Earliest memory of having a big draft crush was hoping against hope Kenny Easley would be taken before Ronnie Lott. I was hooked!

            My first head scratcher was Dexter Carter. Overspending on a return specialist.

            Didn’t know Aldon Smith very well. Was hoping for Peters or Miller to fall. When I saw Aldon’s highlights vs Colorado as a 19 year old kid, I was thrilled to have him. He abused their entire O-line.

            Hated “The Druck” pick from the get go. Seemed like they drafted a composite of all things Bill Walsh thought was overrated in a QB. And his release was molasses.

            AJ Jenkins made me go “who?.” Seemed like a panic move. I thought they were hoping to trade up for Bruce Irvin but Seattle jumped ahead. Saw Jenkins highlights and thought he’d be fantastic. Loved his smooth stride.

            What his highlights didn’t show was breaking press coverage. Of lots of catchesd over the middle.

            Armstead was part of the great 2015 “traits” draft. Baalke grabbed alot of players based more on athletic promise and projection. A little worried about Tartt. I think Armstead will be a monster.

            1. Nice Dexter Carter reference. At least we kinda learned our lesson and waited until the 2nd round to take Amp Lee.

              1. Wow, in pre-season Amp looked better to me than Ricky Watters. Uh, not one of my better calls.

            2. Brodie
              I think it was Scooter who pointed out two key things about AJJ.
              1/ His college production was terrific in early games but dropped off later in the season.
              2/ A very large part of his yards came from RAC on crossing routes against 3-deep zones (and college LBs who don’t get drops like NFL LBs do).
              Since he was already the choice when I read that (and Grant was throwing a tantrum over the pick), I became a little uneasy. It turned out to be a severe under-reaction.
              Besides Druck, Rashaun Woods may be the worst Round#1 pick I can remember SF making. DE Kelly and RB Flagler had significant suck factor as well.

    1. If Charles Harris drops to the late 20s, moving 34 up could make sense.
      34+143 gets about pick 31
      34+109 gets about pick 28

    2. Charles Harris has one good asset – snap anticipation. If he mistimes it he offers very little. He’s much more lime Eli Harold than Aldon Smith. Pass.

    3Hrs Ago

    2. San Fransisco 49ers – Mitch Trubisky, QB, North Carolina

    Funny how the rumors about Cleveland and Chicago taking a quarterback seem to have gained intensity over the last few weeks, but things have been very quiet out of San Francisco. Could it be they’re hoping to keep it that way?

    Given Kyle Shanahan’s ability to use mobile quarterbacks Watson would make lots of sense as well but Trubisky’s got the higher upside and some pretty good feet and mobility also.

    1. 2. San Francisco 49ers—Patrick Mahomes – QB, Texas Tech:

      After the predictable selection of Myles Garrett first overall….here comes a shocking draft selection of Patrick Mahomes 2nd overall. With so much uncertainty around the quarterbacks in this class, Kyle Shanahan opts to go with the one with the most upside. Mahomes possess the arm strength and accuracy that Shanahan loves in his quarterbacks and will be able to learn behind Brian Hoyer.


    “April 25-27 the 49ers will hold a voluntary veteran minicamp.”

    “The three day minicamp can consist of two a day practices on two of the three days. Players can be on the field up to 2.5 hours at a time per session with the total of both sessions limited to 3.5 hours a day. One hour of the 3.5 is limited to walk through instruction only. Players can be expected to participate for up to 10 hours each day, not counting meal periods.”

    “During minicamp, players are wearing helmets but no pads. Offense vs. defense drills are allowed but no contact work or “live” blocking, tackling, pass rushing, bump-and-run. Special teams can run drills with the kicking team vs. the return team but without contact.”

      1. At first thought I doubt it. But we have heard about taking offense at #2 with Trubisky and Fournette. We have heard that we might trade up to have a second 1st round pick and take McCaffrey or Kizer.

        What we haven’t heard is anything about them taking a defensive player in the 1st other than Foster who is no longer an option.

        I think anything is possible. We could take Adams, Thomas, Allen, Hooker, Lattimore, Trubisky, Watson, Fournette, McCaffrey, Williams, Davis, Ross, or Howard.

        Sorry for being so vague, but I really have no clue.

  30. Rotoworld Football‏Verified account @Rotoworld_FB 14m
    9-of-16 scouts say Kizer likeliest QB to bust

    1. The scouts like Watson and Mahommes:
      “6-of-16 NFL scouts polled by the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel voted Clemson’s Deshaun Watson this year’s top draft-eligible quarterback.
      5-of-16 personnel men polled named Patrick Mahomes this year’s top signal caller, while Mitchell Trubisky garnered four first-place votes and DeShone Kizer received the final nod. In the Journal-Sentinel’s “points” system based on the scouts’ rankings, Cal’s Davis Webb came in fifth, Pittsburgh’s Nate Peterman finished sixth, Iowa’s C.J. Beathard came in seventh, and Virginia Tech’s Jerod Evans placed eighth”

      1. Scouts do this every year. The ignore the film and get man-wood over some (often outlier) irrelevant physical attribute(s). But not everyone falls into that trap:

        “To transition to the NFL, accuracy would be number one and studying that part of his game, he struggles in mightily and part of that is the system that I just mentioned – the spread system.” Hoge said. He gets locked on one guy and stays with one guy and a lot of his interceptions come in scoring territory which is a big concern that a guy that hasn’t learned in those simplified offenses to get off that and when he throws the football and when you need it in scoring territories, what bothers me the most, he is very erratic. I have never seen, i will argue this till the day I die, you can not make a quarterback that is not accurate, accurate. You can’t do that. You can bring it in a little bit but if he ain’t accurate, that’s the way he is going to be and you have to live with it. There’s also no sense of anticipation with some of his throws. You don’t see him come off things and go to other things so there is a big learning curve for him. If he is drafted number nine overall, they have no quarterback and he is the starter, it’s going to be really tough.”

        You can’t really teach accuracy. Look at Kaepernick, you go back to 2014 when they tried to make him pocket passer: 33rd in total accuracy and 35th in over-throwing inaccuracy. (OTOH, he was rarely an under-throw inaccurate.) And he didn’t get any better in 2015 or 2016 or ever likely to get better.

        And he was inaccurate to beat all heck in college. Yet he ran fast and had a strong arm and people went nuts even as I had him, Locker and Gabbert on the ‘Do Not Draft Ever’ list because they were all so stinking inaccurate.

        1. Astute post, Moses, and in my view right on. You can’t teach an inaccurate QB how to be accurate anymore than you can teach a mule to run the Derby. Accuracy is a built-in gift, an instinct, not something that someday magically happens. I think Kizer would be a dreadful pick and a major mistake in the first three rounds. No, let someone else deal with the irredeemable Kaepernickian disappointment.

        2. I agree Moses. Bill Walsh agrees too.

          “To become a great quarterback, there must be instincts and intuition. This is the area that can be the difference between a very solid quarterback and a great quarterback. This isn’t an area you can do much with as a coach.”

          “Arm strength is somewhat misleading. Some players can throw 80 yards, but they aren’t good passers. Good passing has to do with accuracy, timing, and throwing a ball with touch so it is catchable.”

          1. I like the humorous last part. I think he wrote- ‘ Throwing a ball with touch so it is catchable, hopefully by the intended receiver. ‘

        3. That take on Mahomes covers many of the reasons I don’t like him much as a prospect. Its not just the accuracy.


    “With lacking top-tier talent in this class, it’s no surprise that so many teams want to move down. Unfortunately for them, they may have trouble finding suitors. A stupid team like the Browns will likely be moving up for a pedestrian quarterback prospect, but that could be it.”

    1. ““With lacking top-tier talent in this class, it’s no surprise that so many teams want to move down. Unfortunately for them, they may have trouble finding suitors.”

      Waa waaaa. What’s been said all Spring now. It takes two to tango. Sure it looks great to trade back but if you want to trade back because of lack of choices then why would anyone want to move up?

      I think the only chance the 49ers have of moving back is if the Browns pull a Browns. Except now you have to weigh the trade vs the best player in the draft. Have fun with that choice.

      1. Yep, most sane people have been saying this all offseason. Trading down sounds great. But going to be very difficult to find a willing partner.

      2. And the latest Garoppolo rumor has the Patriots lowering their demands from #1 overall and 2nd to #12 and a 2nd.

      3. Speaking of the best player, here is one of Warren Sapp’s thoughts on Myles Garrett:

        ““I see a lazy kid that makes four plays a game. This is the No. 1 guy? No, no, no. This ain’t even close.”

        I’ve mentioned this several times and I find it concerning.

        When Sapp was asked “why does pretty much everyone but Sapp have Garrett at No. 1?”

        “It’s all about measurable,” Sapp said. “Once you hit the measurable, it’s tough to get them old scout people off the numbers, and that’s what [Garrett] has. He’s big, and he’s fast. Now some defensive line coach is thinking, ‘I can turn him into something.’ How? I’m trying to figure this out. Really? Are we lowering the bar?”

        Are measurables playing too big a role in draft selections?

  32. Oregon-chipster/Niner

    Either did you, haunting/trolling my posts last year and being very blunt.

    If I didn’t know any better, I’d say you, Razor and Seb were one in the same—All on board the Chipwagon last year.

    You sure can dish it out, but cry to your mama when the tide turns.
    Your mama isn’t here to protect you this year. So don’t let the door hit you in the arse following Seb and Chip out of it to root for Saskatuaan where your hero lands his next job.

    Just don’t let me catch your quack attack promos, a-la, Seb’s Kap boasts all year again.

  33. 2016 Passing efficiency top 50

    31. Kizer 145.6
    27. Kelly 147.4
    21. Kaaya 150.3
    20. Dobbs 150.6
    19. Watson 151.1
    17. Evans 153.1
    12. Mahomes 157.0
    11. Trubisky 157.9
    8. Peterman 163.4

    Every time I compare numbers from the QBs Peterman stands out. But forget the numbers. He goes through his progressions and is accurate. He looks off safties. He hits people in stride.

    1. Agree, #80. And I think Peterman is the most likely 49er QB pick in the 3rd or 4th round. Pure speculation, of course. But with his innate gifts by his 2nd year he might be ready to start in Snanahan’s hybrid WCO and run it deep into the playoffs.

    2. # 80,

      Guessing you heard that 49ers GM, John Lynch said that Kizer hit a tape measure home run in his interview with him.

      Following this, I read national network new about Kizer passing Marriucci and Gruden’s QB academies tests.

      If you’ve never seen them on the NFL Network, the play calls in either camp are long–takes a good memory.

      Kizer also crushed these tests, while Trubisky struggled on Television.

      1. Not sure how a play terminology quick study artist translates onto the field, but so far I’d say Kizer has the interview portion lead over Trubisky.

        (And Trubisky could always take as much time as he needs to study Shanahan’s playbook once he receives it).

      2. Yup. I’ve always had Kizer over Trubisky. I’m liking Peterman more and more lately.

        1. Apparently Peterman takes snaps from center as most WCO QB’s do.

          You saw how long it took Alex Smith to get comfortable under center, but to his credit, he’s now an NFL playoff QB.

            1. The reason WCO coaches like under center QB’s is the footwork from handoffs, waggles, roll outs, all affect WCO timing.

              When a shotgun QB is learning, the entire offensive timing is thrown off for a year or two.

          1. It’s interesting that Peterman has been compared to Cousins. I can see Shanny taking him in the 3rd or 4th and not having to spend 25 mil on Kirk next year. Plus, Cousins will be 30 in 2018.

            1. Walsh built up his defense with top picks and used 3rd and 4th rounders on Montana and young respectively (ie, until he saw Jerry Rice one draft, and traded up to get him after winning a SuperBowl the year before.

              This is why it was so important for Jed to pursue a teacher/coach because Shanahan can find those 3rd or 4th rounders you mentioned and save the high picks for whatever he chooses.

      3. Kizer also crushed these tests, while Trubisky struggled on Television

        Not on the TV that counted — the games. The mental skills that make you great in the classroom, don’t make you great on the football field. Otherwise all those PhD Physicists at Cal Tech, Harvard, Princeton, etc. would be NFL QBs.

        What the elite QBs have is a gift. It’s not running fast. it’s not a strong arm. It’s the ability to, within a fraction of second, understand a hugely complex and chaotic situation and, generally, make the optimal decision.

        You can’t measure it. You can’t put it in a 50-question test. You can’t, tell if they have it in the classroom.

        Heck, they may not even be able to articulate it because it’s a non-verbal process. It is ART. The ART of QBing. And you have it. Or you don’t.

  34. Hmm, NN has Chicago in the Trubisky sweepstakes.

    Hope there is a bidding war. Cleveland should stop trying to be cute. When they threaten to pass on Garrett for Trubisky, they are holding up every draft board. Teams like more certainty, it is easier to plan. Waiting until draft day may mean all the long preparations could be thrown out the window with the second pick. It will be a lot easier if cleveland would just get the trade consummated earlier. Every team would thank them, instead of cursing them for screwing up their carefully laid out drafting strategies.

    Sashi should just pull the trigger on the deal with the Niners. Hope that does not set off TrollD on another gun rant.

    Garropolo may end up like Cassel. Looked good in the Patriots offense, but once he came to Cleveland, he became very pedestrian. Sure hope Haslam does not give another SB to BB by allowing the Pats to get the number 12 pick.

    Jets are now sweating silver bullets. They have no QB despite getting McCown, and Trubisky has skills they covet.

    Niners may want to move back only to 6 so they could get the Jets first and second pick (6, 39), but also a 2018 second round pick, and also still get King Solomon Thomas, or an Earl Thomas type safety.

    However, I hope the Niners could then trade back again, this time with the Browns, who will want to leapfrog ahead of the Bills, to get the next best QB prospect they like. Cleveland could keep their 33rd pick, and only offer pick numbers 12, 52 and 175 to balance out almost perfectly on the TVC.

    Looking at some different top 100 charts, King Solomon may fall to 12 anyways, especially if there is a run on QBs and RBs.

    The Niners end up with pick numbers 12, 34, 39, 52, 66, 109, 143, 146, 161, 175, 198, 202 and 219.

    Just mocking the first 5 picks, using the CBS draft board and trying to pick within 5 of the ranking, the Niners could select-

    12- King Solomon Thomas DE. Although if he is gone, they could go for Haason Reddick, Jabrill Peppers, Corey Davis and Christian McCaffrey, who are the next 4 rankings.
    34- TJ Watt OLB
    38- Jarrad Davis ILB
    52- Chris Godwin WR
    66- Jordan Willis DE

    1. Yes, Seb, noted your reference to g’s, cleverly tucked away mid paragraph.

      I’ve also noted this strategy to encite posters.

      From this date forward, all ‘g’ references will be trashed in my posts. Clearly you have no empathy for the family involved in the our latest national ‘g’ tradgedy and ongoing manhunt.
      You relish in ‘g’ encitement to the peril of your own personal Karma.

      1. Yup just like you posted gun nightmare fantasies right after Olando.

        Maybe you should think before you type.

  35. Time for tweaked mocks all around. DL Caleb Brantley arrested for knocking some 120lb woman out in a bar this month.
    There are several GMs around the League who were thinking of picking him who are glad this came out now.
    Mr. Brantley’ agent……not so much.

    1. Whoops, sorry. 80 posted that at 12:46.
      Some of these guys should be cryogenically mummified from their ProDay until the day before Draftmas.

  36. The paralysis by analysis has firmly set in and lies are in abundance. Less than a week to go and it can’t come soon enough.

    1. PFF rates the paralysis by analysis worse than 2016, but nowhere near as bad as 2013.

      On the other hand, Football Scouts Inc. says PFF’s paralysis by analysis matrix has several flaws, and most teams now use…

    2. Market for 49er related information has soft peaks and valleys. Never goes down to zero.

      Actual 49er information has sharp peaks and valleys. Its currently at zero as we speak.

      The speculation machine charges on. I’m guilty as charged.

  37. From Warren Sapp’s lips… Jimmy Halam’s ear!
    **Warren Sapp on whether ‘lazy’ Myles Garrett should be first pick: ‘No, no, no’

    1. I read that. I thought it was an interesting take. Because there have been a lot of high-drafted failures that have fit that profile.

    2. Should be a red flag. Here’s some of what he said:

      “I don’t see it from this kid,” Sapp said Sunday about Garrett. “I see the splash plays; everybody gets those. Where’s the game he took over? Where? Any defensive lineman who’s the No. 1 pick, you turn up and you say, ‘There it is!’ This kid, no, I don’t. I’m a pretty plain and frank guy, and I watch the tape and he disappears. I watch the tape, and he absolutely disappears.”

      “I see a lazy kid that makes four plays a game,” Sapp said. “This is the No. 1 guy? No, no, no. This ain’t even close.”

  38. The NY Post studied the last five years of NFL draft classes to assess the results.

    To no one’s surprise the 49ers finished near the bottom of the list at no. 28. Surprisingly, the Denver Broncos finished at #31. The reason cited for the Bronco’s relative success, however, is that “John Elway’s best performances have come in free agency.”

    If we take the Post’s results at face value, I believe this supports a contention I’ve been making for years, namely that both the draft and free agency are important. However, I don’t think you should rely entirely on one personnel acquisition vehicle such as the draft (like GB) or FA (apparently the Broncos); but both draft capital and salary capital should be employed.

    One of the other interesting points made in the article that hadn’t occurred to me relates to the current salary cap space:

    “The 49ers spent very little in free agency last year, but the cap space is due as much to poor drafting as anything else. The 49ers have not had nearly enough players worthy of a sizable contract extension in recent years.”

      1. Thanks for posting that. I still think that, in most cases, activity in FA can help put a team in a better position to draft more best player available and less for need. However, I’m also on the record supporting not usually selecting purely based on BPA without factoring in need to a healthy extent.


    “The flashes are important because it tells you the kind of player Thomas can be. It’s the other 45-50 plays where he’s getting washed out of his gap, pancaked on his back, is out of control, or looks like he has no idea what he’s doing, that is getting ignored for whatever reason.”

    “Per PFF, Thomas only played 67 total snaps out wide this year. So that’s give-or-take 5 a game. This is what makes the projection tough because there were so few snaps here.”

    “His defensive line coach will have his work cut out for him and there will be more bumps along the way as he learns to stay square on runs at him, get that half man leverage, and consistently learn pass rush moves.”

    1. lol. Most people don’t realize it, but the offensive line tends to win most plays. Let’s take Kwame Harris a 12-sack-a-year OT. His man, literally, did not get a sack on 98% of the pass plays.

      But in the NFL a 98% tacke is a bad tackle. Because the difference between victory and defeat is very often a razor thin margin where 1% or 2% can make the difference on any given Sunday. And those 6 or 7 extra sacks and 2 or 3 extra penalties he produced made the difference in a number of games.

      So when I read that Thomas is not winning every battle… No ****! As I said, o-linemen win/draw most of the battles, even poor ones. Then because Thomas was the best lineman, most teams combo blocked him with a pair of 300lb plus guys. And while he’s got a great bull-rush and good swim move (but not up to Aaron Donald level), 273lb DTs are going to lose most of those battles.

      1. You’re right. Thomas is a lock for the HOF. So what if he is only effective 2% of the time. Even though he has little experience on the edge, I have to assume he will succeed at the next level.

        And who cares about his lack of length? He will undoubtedly overcome this because a handful of other players have. And he will be able to add weight and keep his athleticism for sure. I can’t believe the Browns aren’t interested in him with the first pick.

        1. My above post was all sarcasm. Numbers are a useful way to analyze and compare players. But film is the most important by far.

          When you read the quotes from my link you scoffed. You went straight to your number analysis. But you ignored the on field critique.

          It’s not that Thomas won or lost on any given play, it’s how he lost. He was washed out of his gap, pancaked, out of control, no idea what he was doing.

          That’s what a scout looks at. Scouts will get intrigued by numbers and highlights. They will then watch film and possibly attend a prospects game. They will look for his flaws and determine if they can be fixed. They will try to determine if the players game will succeed at the next level.

          I enjoy your take and research a lot of the time and I agree with some of it. But you put way too much stock into numbers when evaluating prospects.

        2. Your game is boring Not only do you strawman, but your sarcasm was a strawman. You’re as bad as Seby. You decide what someone says and attack it because you can’t think in anything but the most unsophisticated terms.

          1. Speaking of strawman. I linked on field analysis and did you provide a counter argument to that analysis? No you didn’t. You talked about how lineman hardly ever succeed.

    2. The naysayers will always find something to pick on, but what Thomas has is uncoachable – an inherent level of elite explosiveness and strength. He’s going to be good.

        1. What pick is ever safe #80? There have been many surefire picks that turned out to be busts or unable to live up to the pick.

          1. “What pick is ever safe #80?”

            None of the them. But some can be considered riskier because of injury, size, character issues, or flaws in their games.

            1. “None of them

              “There have been many surefire picks that turned out to be busts or unable to live up to the pick.”

              Bingo. So let’s quit acting (not necessarily you Mid) that Thomas is a lock and that any criticism of him is invalid.

            2. If we are going that route, then Adams is a risky pick because he can get too grabby down the field, over aggressive, and overrun plays.
              In reality, each prospect will be a risk. Honestly, I would be okay with Thomas or Adams.

              1. I have no problem with that criticism of Adams. We are in agreement that every player is a risk, even Thomas.

        2. I have been saying this for some time #80

          I think he is a risky pick. A tweener with small hands who can be buried at times and who is over rated at what he can actually do due to some decent performances in a couple of games. I hope the 49ers pass on him.

      1. How many sacks a season does he have to have to justify the #2 selection on him?

        1. 9 :-)

          Just kidding, but he has some bad film and a potential issue with size. He’s in the conversation at #2, but he shouldn’t be the favorite.

          1. Not sure if that link was meant to discredit my joke.

            This is what my joke was in response to.

            “How many sacks a season does he have to have to justify the #2 selection on him?”

            The question was sacks a season, not career sacks. I said 9. Thomas had 8.5 last year.

              1. My mistake. I apologize to you and everyone else for my snarky attitude today. Good night and have a pleasant tomorrow.

            1. 9 sounds about right. He should consistently have around 10 sacks per season give or take a 1 or 2.
              My problem with Thomas is I don’t think he can play the edge, and that makes it tough for him to get on the field in our sub-packages. Essentially, he would have to replace Buckner or Armstead on passing downs… which would give us on a minor net gain.

  40. On the former csn Bay Area, dial 696 if you have direct tv at 6pm is a inner draft preview with Matt Maicon and minds bach.

  41. Telly’s one and only mock:
    5 rounds
    No trades
    Draftboard: CBS
    Rules: Pick must be at or above the Niner’s draft position

    Pick 1 ( 2) — Jamal Adams, SS ( 3 on DB). Adams becomes the enforcer on defense.
    Pick 2 ( 34) — Evan Engram, WR (35 on DB). Engram becomes WR1.
    Pick 3 ( 66) — Dalvin Tomlinson, DT (69 on DB). Tomlinson enters DL rotation immediately as a 1 tech.
    Pick 4 (109) — Nathan Peterman, QB (114 on DB). Either “QB of the future” or a trading piece if we sign Cousins.
    Pick 5 (143) — Jeremy McNichols, RB (150 on DB)

    1. George, nice mock.Think the Adams pick is the safest pick for the Niners.

      I too, have mocked Dalvin Tomlinson and Jeremy McNichols.

      Peterman could be a good choice. He and Kaaya seem to be the most pro ready.

      My only quibble is at 2. I mocked a defender there, like Carl Lawson, Charles Harris, TJ Watt or Jarrad Davis. However, getting a TE with 4.42 speed sure would help the offense.

      1. Thanks, Seb. Having Engram would help. (My second choice was Watt, who is 37 on the DB.) And he’d also be attractive to Cousins, who has Jordan Reed now. Anyway, that’s my thinking.

    2. Every mock with Mcnichols (and Peterman) is fine by me.

      I just am not sure you can get both of them at those picks.

      Hope so.

      I only find it odd to not draft a CB with a high pick.
      Would have prefered a CB instead of Te with 2nd.

      1. Good stuff, George. I have Peterman also in the 4th but at the end of the round. It’s starting to look like he’s garnering more interest. I think he then Kaaya are best suited to Shanahan. I had Hooker as my first pick, but if they pick Adams I won’t be unhappy. I believe pick 143 is at the end of the 4th, so two more picks needed to make it a five round draft :)

        1. cubus, thanks for pointing out I am short one or two picks. I’ll just pick one more:

          Pick 1 ( 2) — Jamal Adams, SS ( 3 on DB). Adams becomes the enforcer on defense.
          Pick 2 ( 34) — Evan Engram, WR (35 on DB). Engram becomes WR1.
          Pick 3 ( 66) — Dalvin Tomlinson, DT (69 on DB). Tomlinson enters DL rotation immediately as a 1 tech.
          Pick 4 (109) — Nathan Peterman, QB (114 on DB). Either “QB of the future” or a trading piece if we sign Cousins.
          Pick 5 (143) — Jeremy McNichols, RB (150 on DB)
          Pick 6 (146) — Howard Wilson, CB (147 on DB)

          Wilson is 6’1, 184 lbs.
          BOTTOM LINE Smooth athlete with excellent length who has a long history of making plays on the football. Wilson is fast and fluid and he’s willing to do his part as a tackler, but he needs more muscle and more experience before he’s ready to handle some of the physical receivers he will see in the league. Wilson’s size, speed and ball skills will be coveted traits and they give him a chance to become a good NFL starter with time. (

        1. Go real.
          Sasparilla Ice cream float with French Vanilla.
          Or go home.
          I’m diabetic now, so I go home..
          But I miss those Sasparilla Floats, Churros, Bain des Chocolates, sweet fritters, and holiday pies.
          Sweet Potato Pie. Pecan Pie. Punky Pie. Blackberry Pie. Peach Pie. Pear Pie; C’mon!

  42. Grant you are overestimating Brian Hoyer and the 49ers team in general. As of now they will win 5 games max. They will beat Rams (1st game), Boys (upset at home), Giants (upset at home and have to travel all the way to West), Bears, Jaguars (Bortles or some QB hurts them on the road).

    Titans are not mediocre. They have their QB of the future and went from 2 to 9 wins in one season. The Titans have a good D, run game, QB…to go along with 2 1st round picks. That team is going to smack SF in the mouth, home or away.

  43. We think alike Grant. Same final record with a couple of different outcomes. Nice job. Mariucci picked SolomonThomas today with the #2 pick on the NFL Channel’s pre-draft mock. I agree. No trade back.

  44. If the Browns really want Trubisky and they are concerned that the Bears might take him at #3 (per the latest rumor), why not make a deal with the 49ers now to acquire the #2 pick so that they can take both Garrett and Trubisky. What’s the advantage of waiting until the first day of the draft. One disadvantage is the time pressure, but I suppose that would be mitigated by having all of the parameters in place before draft day and then simply waiting until draft day to announce it. But in this case, the Browns select first, so there are no unexpected events that can occur, so why not make the deal with the 49ers ahead of the draft. If they wait until draft day and even if the parameters are worked out ahead of time, the 49ers could still change their mind.

      1. Good work -Adams and Engram are two players I have also mocked here George.I agree about Adams being gone if we wait the way I see it is he a top six pick!

    1. If a trade happens, its likely the parameters are already in place.

      It makes sense for the 49ers to wait. If the Browns take Trubisky 1, the 49ers can demand a higher price for pick 2, or draft Garrett.

      Even if its a 2% chance they skip Garrett at pick 1, its worth it to wait until they are on the clock at pick 2.

      1. Understand, but in my scenario, the Browns have made it clear to the 49ers that they are taking Garrett with #1. They want Trubisky at #2 and this is a chance for the 49ers to get additional picks. My question was more with regards to the Browns than the 49ers. After all, IIRC both trades for #1 and #2 last year were announced prior to draft day. weren’t they?

        1. Cubus, I agree. If they Browns want to trade up for Trubisky at 2, it makes sense to try to make the deal early. In fact, there’s still a chance a team could trade up before the draft starts. There are advantages. Both the Browns would have time to establish new trade up/down agreements before the draft.

          But if the situation is “fluid” as some suggest, it makes sense for the 49ers to make trade-up partners wait. There’s still the chance the Browns could lying about taking Garrett first. Of they change their minds.

          The Browns hired the guy that developed the trade-up stingy Harvard chart. I’m thinking the Browns offer isn’t nearly enough to get the Niners to budge from pick 2.

          1. Since the Browns have 2 second round picks and 3 second round picks in 2018, they have lots of draft capital to play with without needing to offer their 2018 first round pick.

            Niners should ask for pick numbers 12, 33 and 52 along with a 2018 second round pick.

            Niners should accept pick numbers 12, 52 and 65, along with a 2018 second round pick.

            1. 49ers will not trade their draft pick at #2. Getting a QB is a must for the niners to build a foundation. It all start with a Quarterback not a cornerback.

        2. It would certainly calm alot of nerves if a trade was made days before the draft.

  45. There’s going to be no trade back George. They need the dominant pass rusher. It all starts up front. Without that they can have the second coming of the 80’s defensive backfield and it wouldn’t matter. If Cleveland skips Garrett for Trubisky, then the Niners big decision will be to chose between Garrett or Thomas. My pick would still be Thomas.

    1. The thing is, jh, I think there’s a greater chance that Adams would be dominant at his position than Garrett or Thomas would be at theirs. I know most people assume Garrett is the only truly elite guy. But he impresses me as a high maintenance player, a guy whose ego may exceed his ability to shine in the NFL. And if a guy like that turns out to be good, would we be able to retain him? And today we have Sapp pooh-poohing his cred. Always respected Sapp, one of the great ones IMHO.

      1. Yea, you don’t draft another safety when you’re last in stopping the run. Front seven needs more strength, and there’s no LB worthy of #2. King Solomon is the answer….

          1. ;>)He plans on smiting quarterbacks. He trains by chasing chickens in preparation for Russell Smurph….

        1. Fair point about stopping the run, but you can accomplish that by plugging the middle with guys Tomlinson or Vanderdoes. And maybe you don’t put Buckner in the middle.

  46. I wouldn’t shed a tear if they picked Adams George, because he is a great player, but he won’t be so great if he’s running around the field for 5 seconds because the opposing QB has all day to stand back and pick the defense apart, something that has transpired frequently the last few years, at least. In the current pass happy NFL, you have to have a dominant pass rusher if you want to compete with the elite teams, or even win period. Look what Mack has done for the Raiders defense, just as an example. We can’t continue to have to blitz 7-9 guys to get to the QB. Build from the front to the back. We’ll soon see. Thursday can’t come soon enough! Here again is how I think it will go.

    Mock 5. No trade back.
1. #2 Solomon Thomas, Edge, Stanford
 2. #34 Obi Melifonwu, S, Connecticut
 3. #66 Patrick Mahomes, QB, Texas Tech
 4. #109 Cordrea Tankersley, CB, Clemson
 4. # 143 Howard Wilson, CB, Houston
 5. #146 Kareem Hunt, RB, Toledo
 5. #161 Hardy Nickerson Jr, OLB, Illinois 
6. #186 Vince Biegel, Edge, Wisconsin
6. #202 Chad Williams, WR, Grambling St.
 7. #219 Javarius Leamon, OT, South Carolina St.

    1. Nice mock. A little messy, but I like who you picked.

      I had mocked Obi Melifonwu many times earlier, but since I saw him being taken in many first round mocks, I sorta gave up on him.

      Instead of 2 CBs, maybe use one of those picks to get a big speedy WR or TE. Dede Westbrook WR, Jordan Leggett TE or George Kittle TE at 109. Kenny Golladay WR, Shelton Gibson WR or Jonnu Smith TE at 143.

      Mahomes, Webb, Kaaya or Peterman may all be decent mid round QBs.

      OT but what would you say to Nunez in left and Gillaspie at third?


    “Not only did Willis check all the measurable boxes NFL teams desire in an defensive end, measuring in at 6 feet 4 and 255 pounds with 33  1/2 -inch arms, he also tested off the charts, running a blazing 4.53 40-yard dash, vertical-jumping 39 inches and running a 6.85 three-cone drill and a 4.28 20-yard shuttle — all numbers among the top five of defensive linemen.”

    “It was a heck of a performance, one that — when combined with a killer performance at the Senior Bowl in January and his effort during the 2016 season, in which he racked up 52 tackles (17  1/2 for loss) and 11  1/2 sacks and was chosen the Big 12’s Defensive Player of the Year — vaulted him from a likely second-round pick into one that is earning first-round consideration from multiple teams.”

    That’s my guy at #34. I hope he is still there.

    1. Jesus Christ, you whine and strawman about a post I make that explains why someone whining about defensive linemen losing the majority of snaps is your typical moron approach to understanding football then you give a measurables argument and quote them.

      And it’s not the first time, either. You’re a serious hypocrite, dude.

      1. You just pulled another strawman. In talking about Willis I cited his measurables, which are adequate and made no mention about lineman losing snaps.

        You are stating that I’m a hypocrite for calling our your snap theory. That link I provided was talkikng about what the author saw when he didn’t succeed. The author even stated that Thomas has huge upside. You and you alone made this about the number of snaps.

        1. Just to be clear. You made this about defensive linemen losing the majority of snaps. Not me or the author of the article. The author made evaluations based on when he succeeded and when he didn’t.

          When a player has a good play scouts note that he did well and how he did well. This is how scouts determine strengths.

          When a player fails scouts will look at why he failed and if it happens frequently. This is how they determine weaknesses. They don’t say every lineman fails most of the time so it’s not a concern. If that were the case, none of the lineman would have any weaknesses.

          Yes, I did make a sarcastic post earlier. I realize that was over the top and I apologized for my snarky attitude later in thread. That apology was mostly directed at you.

          1. It’s not the first strawman you’ve pulled. You keep doing it. You don’t get meta posts that use numbers and then you get all strawman and start swinging your dick.

            Then you turn right back around and play with ‘numbers.’

            That’s hypocrisy.

            1. Moses,

              Just so there isn’t any confusion I never said all numbers were useless. Here is what I said word for word and it’s in this very thread.

              “Numbers are a USEFUL WAY to analyze and compare players. But film is the most important by far.”

              You see that Moses? I said numbers are useful.

              I took issue with your “offensive line tends to win most plays.” numbers in particular, not every number. Why did I take issue with that?

              Because you stated the obvious with DL/ success rate and acted like I didn’t know about it. If a DE averages only 1 sack a game, he probably makes the Pro Bowl. If he averages 2 a game, he shatters the single season record.

              Not only did you accuse me of not knowing something that is obvious, but you said “most people don’t realize it.”

              1. 80, I agree with your take on the subject, and commend you for apologizing. Although, you were a little sharp, but I would consider them love taps compared to some of the sledgehammers thrown my way.

                While I acknowledge Moses does have some football acumen, he does tend to talk down from on high.

                Maybe he is aptly named, but he also wandered in the desert for 40 years. ;p

  48. Seen a few quotes calling this the worst QB class of all time. It may well prove to be but for the time being the holder of that crown still goes to 2013.

    1. Yeah, well none of them learn from history. You get stuff like this every decade:

      1988 – The first QB drafted was Tom Tupa in Round 3. He made the pro bowl as a punter.

      1996 – Tony Banks was the first off in Round 2. The next was Bobby Hoying in Round 3.

      2007 – JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, Vince Young, Kevin Kolb, Trent Edwards and some back-ups. When Jay Cutler is the best of the bunch…

      Why should 2017 be any different? It’s the ebb-and-flow of talent. They can’t all be 1983 – Marino, Kelly, Elway, Eason & O’Brien giving us 3 HOFers and two solids even if injuries ruined Eason’s career.

        1. Lol. What makes it even more amusing is this is the same guy who was going on and on last year about how good Baalke was and everyone who criticized him didn’t understand football and the draft.

          1. Rocket,
            Selective use of data is strong in this one… aside from oversimplification of complex football issues, and extrapolation beyond the deep end…

          1. I think more or less Moses tells it like it is. I appreciate that and wish more people on here would do the same!

    1. Another classic example of cherry-picking stats. What PFF fails to cover is that Robinson covered mostly no name WRs and was smoked when he faced a #1 WR. This upcoming season will have a better chance of telling us how capable Robinson is in coverage.

      1. Its not cherry picking. Cherry picking is only taking his one bad game and saying that is more reflective of his talent than the body of work.

      2. MWD, the notion that PFF is cherry picking tells me you’re clearly misunderstanding this stat.

        PFF is comparing ROOKIE CB’s. How many rookie CB’s are covering the opposing teams best WR’s? The fact that Robinson leads all ROOKIE CB’s is the point. And it’s an impressive point!

        He’s not being compared to all of the top CB’s in the league.

  49. Interesting how so many posters want to focus on the “science” of evaluating talent when reality there is no science at all. Players are selected by instinct. Measureables are nothing more than what people use to justify their instincts when called to task on their choices. What did you take that scrub? He ran a 4.0 forty and had a 75′ broadjump is the answer you will get but not the fact that the person’s instincts were really what made the selection. Measureables are statistics and people use statistics as a drunkard uses a lamp post – for support, not illumination. Watch the movie “Million Dollar Baby” with Clint Eastwood. That is what scouting is in reality when you sweep away all of the horse s##t. In the real world, everyone’s opinion is no better or worse than anyone elses. All these discussions just serve to prove the essential randomness of success in the draft.

    1. “Measureables are statistics and people use statistics as a drunkard uses a lamp post – for support, not illumination”


    1. Browns Chalk Talk‏ ” Mike Silver says Browns “have been calling” teams in the Top 10 looking for a trade up. Likely Garrett at 1, Trade up for Mitch Trubisky”

      The gamesmanship continues. All in good fun. Not taking any of this too seriously.

  50. “49ers ‘strongly’ considering quarterback at pick 2” rumors flying this morning. I think its lying season chatter, but I can see a scenario where the Niners do take a quarterback.

    – If the 49ers are as optimistic as our own Grant Cohn, they don’t expect to be in a position to take a top quarterback in 2018.

    – Trading up in 2018 will be daunting if they don’t collect extra picks by trading back in 2017.

    – Skins ownership could be spiteful and self destructive enough to franchise tag Cousins for 2018 $34m guaranteed. They will refuse 49er trade offers. Cousins will veto non-49er trade offers. That’s $78m fully guaranteed for three years of work. And a very happy Cousins.

    My hunch is 49ers want
    1) Reasonable trade back offer
    2) Still Unsure

  51. My ‘way too early’ prediction is 5 +/-3 wins. I doubt the draft is good for more than +1 win, so even a successful draft would raise my prediction to only 6 +/-3 wins.

    A caveat to the above is the possibility that the talent on the team is being undervalued as a result of poor coaching, out-of-position play, coach/gm strife, etc. I do not think that is the case overall, but if it is true for even few of the carryover players, then that situation might be a wild-card with regard to what the actual record will be.

    1. Niners have had high number of starters go on IR 2014-15-16. (ironically, none of the injured were “ACL picks”)

      If the 49ers have a little better injury luck, it adds a win or two.

      I’m still thinking 4 to 5 wins in 2018. Lots of dropped games early. Things start to gel on offense later in the season.

      1. I blame the injuries on Uyeyama. Since they’ve parted ways, I’m optimistic we will have healthier players under the tutelage of Ray Wright and his three assistants….

        1. Wow. The injury bug started to hit bad in 2014. Fangio did really well holding the defense together.

    2. Still see that as a bit optimistic with all the turnover the team has had the last couple of years and the new regime but I’d certainly would love to see it. I think a repeat of last year’s record is not out of the question but a doubling 4-12 is a good indicator of progress. Anything more will be icing.

  52. Monday Night Countdown (to the draft).

    My mock hinges on the phrase: “once in a generation player,” that has been used by scouts in describing Leonard Fournette and Grant’s column that asked: How many wins will Leonard Fournette be responsible for ?

    Once in a generation means once every 33 years.

    So here’s my draft.

    Rd 1: The 49ers trade down with the Carolina Panthers who collect the draft rights for Leonard Fournette. Carolina feels it’s one player away. In Grant’s article,: How many wins is Fournette worth, I answered, (5) wins. (5) wins would vauld the Panthers into home field advantage throughout the playoff, so you can see the value of a trade up for this franchise.

    San Francisco feels it’s several players away so the trade is a ‘win-win’ for both franchises.

    With the 1st pick in the 2017 draft the 49ers choose:

    Rd. 1 Malik Hooker…..I’ll post the remainder of my draft later in the day.

  53. Feast on this:
    Better Rivals podcast: Their Niner draft strategy

    “On this final pre-draft episode of the Better Rivals podcast, we put everything together and develop a plan of attack for the 49ers in the 2017 NFL Draft. What are the strengths and weaknesses of this draft class? Is trading down from No. 2 overall a realistic possibility? Who’s the best option if they’re stuck at No. 2? And which positions should they be focused in on throughout the draft? All that, plus smoke screens, Glen Coffee’s return, and Drunk Prospecting Vol. 2.”

  54. Yes Seb, I agree Nunez in left and Gillaspie at third would be a huge improvement. I always liked Connor. Throwback hard nosed player. We need his bat in the lineup. But seriously, at this point, and I know it’s early and people are going to say it’s an overreaction, I think they should go young because they are in trouble with this current roster. Why not? Everybody in the division improved over the winter except us and our closer position, period. They have so many problems we could talk for days, and this is a Niner blog so I’ll refrain!

    The reason I took two corners in my mock is because of the team releasing Brock, so I think they are depleted at that position, and also I think young defensive players gel a little quicker at the NFL level, compared to offensive players such as WR’s. I’d rather see them sign an experienced WR or two when the FA siging process continues. That is just my humble opinion.

    On the stats conversation, as a longtime softball coach in the area (travel and HS) I can attest that statistics are indeed deceiving. Especially in football, where stats are padded in junk time when teams are losing badly in the 3rd and 4th quarter. Especially true with QB’s. Our QB last year was a perfect example. He finished with a 90.5 rating, 16 TD’s and only 4 int’s but a 1-10 record. So really, his stats didn’t amount to a hill of beans. That is the case for many QB’s in the league, not just him. Stats are only one tool in judging a player. In our HS league up here in the north bay, we changed the criteria for picking the MVP of the league to a solely statistics driven program to which I vehemently disagreed with but had to go along with. No other criteria was taken into consideration. To me, stats don’t tell the whole story. I also look at attitude, commitment, leadership, along with skills and other factors including intelligence for the game itself. With a short 16 game NFL season, the only stat in the NFL that matters in my opinion is wins and loses.

    1. Monday Night (countdown to the draft, pt II)

      2nd Rd–Cam Robbinson, OT, 6-6, 320 (A real NFL O-Lineman in the lineup)
      3rd Rd–From Carolina Trade—Carlos Hendrson, WR
      3rd Rd–Trey Hendrickson, OLB
      4th Rd–Erick Saubert, TE
      4th Rd–Kareem Hunt, RB
      5th Rd–Brandon Langley, CB
      5th Rd–Connor Harris, ILB
      6th Rd–Chad Williams, WR
      6th Rd–Avery Moss, DE
      7th Rd–Kyle Slater, QB

          1. I have to disagree Tom. Lynch and Shanny have said they value the QB position more than any other. The development begins this year with a QB of the future selected this year.
            I would also expect them to take a QB next year as well. In fact, every team should address that unit every 2 years via the draft.

            1. Prime,

              I have no argument with your talent evaluation.

              I think Kyle doesn’t want to risk his career just yet with Jed.

              A top 10 QB will be paid 20 million/per. Jed just went through paying bust, Alex Smith 20 mil/yr until Harbs coaxed a few good ones from him.

              Then there was the 19 mil/yr to ‘ol windup’.

              If Trubisky is really that good, Shanny will find draft Trubisky. I just think it’s a little dicey to jeopardize a relationship this early on the toughest position in sports to evaluate—don’t forget mental psychology is a factor–why do you think ‘ol windup would run when his first read was covered….?

              1. With Cousins waiting in the wings next season, wasting a pick on a bridge QB is folly. Best to fix the defense first.

              2. Waiting in the wings?
                You should avoid making predictions Seb. You are already
                way off!
                February 20, 2017 at 11:54 am
                KS is competent enough to take Kaep, and turn him loose so he can take the league by storm, again.

    2. Juan, just brought that up because the Giants have kinda been like the 2016 Niners. Unlike Baalke and the Niners, I hope Bobby Evans will be proactive and bring up Arroyo. Still like the idea of getting a player from the Japanese national team.

      About the corners, I am anticipating that KS and Lynch can stop playing players out of position and playing their favorites.

      I hope Donte Johnson gets more snaps, and Will Redmond can get back on the field. Robinson, while undisciplined, at times shut down the receiver many times.

      I guess all my mocks have 2 Defensive ends in them because this is a very talented group and the Niners could pick up players who can get to the QB.

      I also usually have 2 ILBs in them because I am not counting on Bowman being 100%. If he is fully healthy, it will be a bonus. I just have the words of Baalke ringing in my ears about refraining from drafting an ILB because he said they did not need one. Then he gave us Bellore.

      I plan on giving my final mock on Wednesday, because I think there will be a lot of movements and rumors like the Bears liking Trubisky.

      Cleveland should move fast because the Jets, while playing coy, desperately needs a QB, and trading back to 6 for the Niners may be the best alternative. The Niners will get that second round pick and a 2018 second round pick, and they will still be able to get Thomas, Adams or Hooker.

    1. I am more concerned about the history of cramping. I can buy the reasoning behind the diluted sample if it was to reduce cramping, but that cramping is a concern going forward.

    2. # 80

      Peppers tested positive for a diluted sample at the combine. A diluted sample counts as a positive test for the NFL.
      **Peppers’ agents at CAA told Schefter that “Peppers drank a lot of water because he was sick at the combine,” which caused the failed test.

      ** Peppers and his agent win the Jim Carrey and Jeff Daniels dumb and dumber award.

    1. Funny quip from Clark:

      Matt Barrows‏Verified account @mattbarrows · 22h22 hours ago

      Dwight Clark at unveiling of a mural depicting ‘The Catch.’ Quipped that Montana thinks it should be ‘The Throw.

  55. Lynch informal presser pastes from the beat writers. The expected unspecific responses to questions. Presser done in the John McVay draft room. (looks really cool)

    Jennifer Lee Chan
    – Lynch has gotten the coaching staff involved with the pre draft process.

    – There have been calls about trading the #2 pick but nothing specific. They have it narrowed down to 2-3 options.

    – Lynch said they do not want to play decisions too safe. They want to play them smart, intelligent and aggressive.

    Cam Inman
    – John Lynch: Lot of assumptions being made and I’m glad they’re assumptions because nothing has left this building

    Tracy Sandler
    – John Lynch: a lot of people have issues…Each player deserves being looked at in a unique way

    – Lynch: We’ve stated from the beginning that a franchise QB is essential to winning in this league

    – Lynch says free agency was opportunity to get rid of some players they didn’t feel the organization is about and bring in those who are.

    – Lynch: we’ve figured out our own way to have our tie-breaker

    – Lynch: Sometimes if you can be transparent, that’s the best poker you can play…there’s not going to be a whole lot of shenanigans #49ers

    – Lynch says they will start going through mock drafts later today #49ers

    – Lynch: you can’t play scared. You have to play smart (regarding draft picks)

    – Lynch’s biggest lesson about drafting: “You’re looking for someone who fits every one of the criteria. It doesn’t happen. It’s not reality.”

    – Lynch says no decision has been made on Jimmie Ward’s fifth-year option. Said team has been consumed with draft.

    – rookie GM John Lynch: “There’s a lot of good players in the Southeastern Conference. I figured that one out.”

    – John Lynch said 49ers have identified 200 “draftable” players.

    – Would 49ers consider a QB at No. 2? John Lynch noted importance of position: “I think the answer is ‘yes.’”

    1. They have it narrowed down to 2-3 options.

      My guess is it is Adams, Fournette, and Thomas.

      1. Adams, Lattimore would be my guess at 1a and 1b. Not ruling out the possibility of a surprise WR selection.

    1. Ricky, he aint my ‘boy’. He is a grown man and he has made his decision. I have moved on, but I guess you cannot. I predict he goes to the Texans. With all their offensive weapons, and the number one defense, he will come storming back.

      Hope Lynch hits a grand slam in the draft and the Niners triple their wins from last season. I hope they are laying a solid foundation for the future.

          1. Hey Seb i’m not a wannabe GM like you. Who everyday year by year that wants certain draft picks who never shine and alway a big bust like CK. haha

            1. No, you are a shrill shill. a Baalke toady. Sure am glad that cancer was excised.

              BTW, I was smart enough to guess how Baalke would pick by getting 3 right last draft. No one else, you included got more than 2.

              I also counseled against drafting an ACL player.

  56. Nice. Lynch is being shrewd, and entertaining every option.

    Glad he is including the coaches. Baalke wanted all the power, and he got all the blame. Hope it is a consensus, but with possible permutations.

    Cleveland should pull the trigger on a deal, because Niners may trade back with the Jets, and still get the player they targeted.

    Glad to see Lynch pushing chips into the pot, and holding his cards close to his vest.

    It it music to my ears that no leaks have occurred. Whole new mindset and culture.

    My new mock may have more players from the SEC.

      1. With Cousins waiting for free next year, drafting a bridge QB at 2 may be unwise, especially when the defense gave up 200 yards on the ground. Fix the defense first, and do that by trading back aggressively to accumulate picks.

        If you mean Jed York by the Nomenclature- Brass, frankly, I hope he concentrates on the drapes in his cabana, more. I hope he stays away as far as possible, and he lets them do their jobs without meddling. That would make me happy.

      1. I’m just presenting the difference of opinion. I’m no wannabe GM. But you have to respect NE’s draft process. They do well.

    1. On the other hand, the article says,

      “I think it’s a good draft, regardless. Pick a position,” he said when asked about the depth at pass-rusher. “There’s good football players top to bottom — I would say — across positions.”

      Yes, but only 50-75 of them in NE’s opinion, apparently.

      1. George
        Factor in BB’s insistence that his players, especially on defense, need versatile, adaptable skill sets with the temperament to match. By temperament I mean the learning skills and football smarts and coachability. That standard necessarily reduces the player pool they will draft from. Some one dimensional players are excellent system fits. Those, if appropriately chosen, can play well. There are more of those available, so it’s a bigger pool for some GMs.

  57. All this Curt Cousins talked is all blown out of proportion. Why would the 49ers pay a retread QB who barely beat good opposing teams in the playoff. It would be another mistake for the 49ers to go after Cousin because he played for Shanny. Shanahan will have more success teaching a young talented QB they’ll draft instead.

    1. Cousins is no retread. It takes a very good team to get through the playoffs, not just a very good QB. Where would Montana be without Rice, Lott, Haley and the others?

    2. Because Cousins was rated in the top 10. Top 10 QBs do not grow on trees, and even I concede that Cousins has better stats than Kaep. He also has played for KS, and has expressed a desire to reunite.

  58. Trust me everyone the closer it gets to the draft day the 49ers will be more smart to hang on to their #2 picked and pick a QB and build around him for the future the next two years the franchise will be in good shape.

    1. With Cousins in the wings and franchise QBs emerging in 2018, the smart move will be to trading back and concentrating on fixing the defense.

      I hope the first 3 picks go defense.

  59. Seb, agree on Arroyo. He would have been on the opening day roster if it was up to me! It’s time! Ok sorry no more Giants talk! Here’s my lineup though!
    1. Panic 2b
    2. Arroyo 3b
    3. Belt lf
    4. Posey 1b
    5. Pense rf
    6. Crawford ss
    7. Hundley c
    8. Hernandez cf
    9. Pitcher

    Package Nunez, Samardzija, and Span together for another outfielder and leave Bach in the rotation once Bummy comes back! ;))

    1. 1. Nunez 3b
      2. Crawford ss
      3. Buster 1b
      4, Belt lf
      5, Pense rf
      6. Hundley c
      7, Panic 2b
      8. Arroyo/Spann cf
      9. Pitcher.

  60. Looks good RB! I’m not sold on Nunez though only because I’m old school and believe u need power at the corners, 1st, 3rd, lf, rf, but I could live with that lineup.

  61. Maybe the Niners can sign Samardzija to a free agent contract. I liked him at ND. That way he could maybe catch a HR instead of giving them up! ;)

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