How Kyle Shanahan can help Deebo Samuel bounce back in 2023

Posted By on July 10, 2023

Deebo Samuel had one of the best receiving seasons in 49ers history in 2021. To say he followed it up with a down year would be putting it nicely.

“It was awful in every way,” Samuel told the Bay Area media of his performance in 2022.

A lengthy contract dispute which lasted into training camp played a large part in the decline. When the team reconvened to start the offseason program, the star receiver and head coach sat down to review his performance the year before.

“Kyle and I had a long meeting. We watched tape, talked about it and we put it behind us,” said Samuel. “Just going through the tape and how sluggish and how bad it looked on tape. Just reflecting on that, I’ll never put anything like that on tape again.”

Based on a variety of workout clips which have been shared on social media Samuel is following through with doing what he can to put his best foot forward.

Kyle Shanahan could help Samuel bounce back this season as well if he lets the receiver work downfield more often.

Let me explain.

Samuel is one of the most explosive players in the NFL when he has the ball in his hands. His ability to make defenders miss and break tackles is special. Especially when he gets into the open field. That opportunity wasn’t given very often in 2022.

Last season Shanahan rarely had Samuel run routes down the field. The receiver’s average depth of target was a paltry 4.3 yards, nearly half what it was in 2021. During Samuel’s career season his average depth of target was 8.4 yards.

This appears to be a pattern for Shanahan’s usage of Samuel. As a rookie in 2019 and his breakout 2021 season, Samuel’s average depth of target was over seven yards. The wideout averaged 16.5 yards per attempt those two years.

Samuel’s average depth of target during his down year in 2022 was higher than the 2.2 yards he averaged in 2020. That Samuel was still able to average 11.5 yards per reception over those two seasons is a testament to how good he is after the catch.

This article has 31 Comments

  1. Jack,
    I am curious what was the Avg. depth of target for Aiyuk, Jennings and CMC last season?

    1. Coach,

      Aiyuk: 9.9
      Jennings: 8.4
      McCaffrey: 2.0

      These are regular season numbers per profootballreference.

  2. Deebo could break out again this season. He seems to be in better shape and has a better mental attitude. He still can be the big play guy he once was.

  3. Allie,
    As long as Aiyuk, Kittle and CMC stay healthy Deebo will never have a repeat of 21. He can Avg the same yards per reception or carry but he will never have the same targets/carries. That doesn’t mean he won’t have a great season in 23. It depends on QB and O line play.

  4. Aiyuk’s ascendancy might hinder Deebo’s wishes in 2023. As Kittle said a couple of weeks ago, there are many mouths to feed.
    Who is the “go-to” receiver at the moment? Based on last season, it’s Aiyuk. I believe that Aiyuk is going to get more targets in 2023 than he did last year.

    This might be sacrilegious, but I believe that Deebo is in position at the moment where he needs to prove himself. The honeymoon is over for Samuels. He better come large in 2023 or the marriage could be over.

    1. AES,
      Whenever Deebo has entered camp in shape he has stayed relatively healthy and had very good to great seasons. It looks like he might be entering this year in the best shape of his life. I think the tough question facing the 9ers is if Deebo has a good year and Aiyuk steps up his game like both you and I believe he will can the 9ers afford to extend Aiyuk. I don’t think they will have the cap room and may be forced to trade one of them.

      1. Deebo’s wheel-house has been YAC. At some point in a veterans career they begin to avoid the big hit for self-preservation and longevity. Deebo is still young enough to receive and dish out punishment, but once he loses that edge he will not get it back.
        That’s why I believe 2023 is a big deal for Deebo – going forward.

        1. AES,
          If both Deebo and Aiyuk excel in 23 what do you think the 9ers will do as far as extending Aiyuk, fitting both players under the cap or trading one of them? I believe they will only be able to afford one of them, unless T. Williams retires.

          1. Coach,
            That would be a tough decision for the FO, as I’m sure that they would like to keep both players.

            The 49ers had to make a similar decision about 4 years ago with Buckner and Armstead. It will likely come down to who posts the highest stats in 2023 as well as the playoffs.

            Hopefully, competition between both players to out-play each other during the season will propel the team to a SB.

          2. This is a tough question to answer.
            Deebo when healthy does more for the offense and gives insurance for the offense should McCaffery get injured which tends to happen. As this offense is based fairly heavily on the RB/WR mismatches and confusion that those 2 player give. Without Deebo, if CMC gets hurt the offense has to dramatically change.
            The problem is Deebo also has a history of getting banged up and Aiyuk is the only wr SF has that scares teams in man to man situations.

  5. Aiyuk is a better WR than Deebo. Deebo is a better football player than Aiyuk IF he is in shape. Last offseason was monumentally disappointing to me. To a certain degree, Kyle made Deebo millions of dollars by inventing the Wide Back position. Deebo’s talk of wanting a trade, showing up obviously out of shape, and then laying an egg for the entire year was very frustrating as a fan. Deebo may be working out this offseason but has he done anything to work out with Trey Lance and Sam Darnold? Has Deebo worked with them at all? Deebo is immensely talented but I’m not sure he has the drive to be the most versatile WR in the game which he could easily achieve.

    1. Imo he seems to have “inner demons” that make it difficult for him to focus on the prize. If so, maybe it’s something he’ll be able to out grow. And maybe it will be this year.

  6. Geo,
    I don’t think DS has shown signs of multiple issues. He had a hard time with how the 49ers negotiated his extension. I don’t understand why the 49ers wait until right before camp to start negotiating. Many teams start negotiating in Feb, why make the player wait?

    1. Hi OC. I think you’re being kind to him, blaming his hard time on the team. Neither Kittle nor Warner cancelled the Niners on their social media accounts. But no worries, that’s just my perception.

    2. it wasn’t the teams fault he showed up fat and out of shape. if someone pays you a lot of money to do a job its up to you to prepare and show up ready to preform. he got his money and got lazy now its time for him to show maturity and earn his payday

  7. Deebo has to deliver in 2023. He may have put himself in this position with his hardball negotiations last year as well as getting hurt causing him to miss a few games. His underachieving play didn’t do him any favors with the FO as well.

    But that being said, he is still a great fit with Purdy as the QB. With Purdy, the 49ers heavily rely on the intermediate passing.
    But if Purdy goes down for 5-6 games, will Shanahan tweak the passing scheme with either Darnold or Lance’s ability to throw the deep ball? And, can Deebo find success in the tweaked passing scheme that doesn’t rely on the intermediate game?
    Ahh, maybe I’m over thinking this 🤔

    1. AES,
      Thats what happens this time of year. No real news leads to a whole lot of mental masturbation.

    2. If Purdy went down, I think we’d have the same running game with Darnold running the basic YAC passing offense and throwing the deep ball every now and again. The margin of victory probably would be smaller but, barring injury, we’d still win most of our games.

  8. Geo.
    What gives you so much confidence in SD? Why the confidence in SD and not TL?

    2. Imo at this stage in his career Lance is more suited to be a backup. If you have the time you might want to review a video of his plays in the Chicago game before the weather got out of hand. I’d post a link but I’m typing on my phone and don’t know how to paste it. Darnold on the other hand strikes me as starter material. He’s more consistently accurate and more elusive in the pocket. He’s also much more experienced. I think of him as a Garopollo with a better arm and greater maneuverability. If he played within the structure of Kyle’s offense I think we’d be quite functional.

        1. Thanks George. Wow! I’m surprised. I thought he would stink (that’s how I remembered it). He was really OK. Made some fine throws and ran with surprising agility, too. Even without the 4th quarter monsoon, the conditions were poor and he was playing with a bum finger. Well, If not Purdy, then the season would still be interesting/enjoyable just seeing what Lance could do.

          1. The defense failed to cover Dante Pettis on an across the field pass from Justin Fields that went for a untouched catch and run TD that caused the loss.

            Lance was not exceptional in that game, but he wasn’t awful either.
            In my opinion, we didn’t (in the Chicago game) and still haven’t
            learned enough in Lance’s small sample size play to make a qualified assessment.
            I’ll let TC make that determination.

            1. With him at qb, the team scored only 10 points against a team that finished with three wins that year. I don’t fault him for that. He was overdrafted — the team’s fault — and played accordingly. All I’m saying, basically, is that unless he shows substantial improvement, Darnold will likely be the better option.

              1. The entire team (especially our vaunted D) was still playing in preseason mode in that game. The 49ers did not jell as a complete team where both sides of the ball were effective until about 4 games in.
                The loss in Chicago was a team loss, not solely a Lance loss.

                HOF QB’s have had games where they’ve only managed 10 pts or less. Lucky for them that their team and fans didn’t measure them on that.
                I’ll wait until TC and maybe even real game play to make a better judgment on Lance.
                But I do agree, that it’s not Lance’s fault where he was drafted. And he has to prove his value commensurate to his draft position.

              2. Geo.
                I looked at your link, TL was not sharp but as AES pointed out the whole team played poorly. KS because of all of the camp and precamp injuries early in his career has not had his team ready for the start of the year the last 2 seasons, QBs included. I don’t have very strong positive feelings about Lance but I do have pretty strong negative feelings about Darnold’s play. One thing that surprised me regarding Darnold is how good of a runner he is. He in my opinion is a far better runner and scrambler than Lance but at the same time his Int. rate at passes over 10 yards is terrible. I think the 9ers are showcasing both QBs in hope of trading one of them at the end of camp. I think the team knows they will be in cap hell at the end of this year and are looking to stock draft picks going into next years draft.

              3. Coach, I’d expect his interception rate to plummet because Kyle gets receivers open so often and Darnold is consistently accurate.

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