How the 49ers are set up for success

For the second consecutive season the 49ers were one step away from reaching the Super Bowl. As we enter the offseason oddsmakers are putting San Francisco among the favorites to be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy next February in Las Vegas.

After watching Kansas City come back from a ten point deficit to defeat Philadelphia 38-35 on Sunday, I like the 49ers odds as well.

The 49ers already have a roster capable of playing with Kansas City.

Rewind back to week seven of 2022 when the two teams faced off at Levi’s Stadium. Although the 49ers ultimately lost that game 44-23, they kept pace with the Chiefs throughout much of the contest. Jimmy Garoppolo gave away points twice. First on an interception in the endzone just before halftime, and by taking a sack for a safety in the fourth quarter.

San Francisco’s defense had an uncharacteristic performance against Kansas City as well. With Nick Bosa returning after missing time with a groin injury and Charvarius Ward playing through an injury, the 49ers allowed touchdowns on six of seven possessions.

In the Super Bowl we saw Philadelphia play a very “San Francisco” style of game. The Eagles had the perfect plan for Kansas City.

Nearly every stat favored Philadelphia. Led by Jalen Hurts the Eagles ran the ball 32 times and converted on 11 of 18 third downs along with both fourth down attempts leading to over 35 minutes of possession. In addition, they outgained Kansas City by 77 yards.

The one stat which did not favor Philadelphia was their downfall, turnovers.

Jalen Hurts’ fumble and the ensuing scoop and score for Kansas City tied the game in the second quarter, keeping the Eagles from turning it into a route before halftime.

Turnovers have been the best predictor of wins and losses for the 49ers over the last two seasons. When they turn the ball over more than their opponents, they lose, and vice versa.

As evidenced by their average of 30.5 points per game over the final ten weeks of the regular season, San Francisco has the firepower offensively to compete with Kansas City.

Despite popular belief, the offensive line in 2023 was the best of any during Kyle Shanahan’s tenure in San Francisco. The big guys up front allowed a sack on only 5.7 percent of their drop backs and opened holes for a running game which averaged 4.7 yards per attempt.

Defensively the 49ers were the best in the league in 2022. They allowed the fewest points per game, and fewest yards.

San Francisco is in good shape moving forward. The team will return 16 of 22 starters in 2023 and has the cap flexibility necessary to retain several of its pending free agents. The 49ers will play late into January again next season if they keep their starting quarterback healthy.

This article has 22 Comments

  1. The 49ers are set up for success. To be successful next year, the 49ers must find a better Defensive Tackle, Center and Right Guard. Contrary to what you believe Burford was bad and Brendel was worse. Shanahan’s scheme hid the truly horrid play of Brendel and Burford. According to PFF, Jake Brendel was the 30th ranked Center in the NFL. I also think it’s time to move on from Kinlaw. I like his potential but those injuries are just too much to overcome. Every other position group on the roster is top 5 in the NFL. Even with the QB position with Purdy and Lance, I think could be one of the best situations in the NFL. Super excited about next year. This draft is going to be crazy. Given the need to pay some top end guys, starting with so many picks in the 3rd round is the perfect situation. Hit some home runs on the O-line and you could set up a decade of success.

  2. The reason we didn’t make it to the Super Bowl the last 2 years was due to quarterback injuries and now both our remaining quarterbacks will be coming off of injuries. Hopefully they both head into the new season fully healthy and remain that way.
    I know everyone thinks the starting position is Purdy’s and it’s probably correct. However, it will be interesting to see how Lance does during OTAs , training camp and preseason games. He should get a lot of reps. If Purdy isn’t 100% he could even start a couple of games. If he looks good going into the season all bets are off. Shanahan still likes his ability to run the ball.

  3. I believe that the 49ers will redo the contracts of as many as 6 players which could give them as much as 45 mill in salary cap space. I think they will make 2 major FA signings at two of three position groups. OL, DT, and or DB. I believe it will be the first two but if they think McKivitz can replace McGlinchey then it will be the latter two positions. I don’t believe that the O line is as good as Jack thinks they are. Their pass blocking got better as the year went by but the run blocking was very inconsistent. I read an article many years ago about Bobb McKittrick, he graded his O line at the end of the year by removing the top 3 runs each game and then did an Avg. He believed that big breakaway runs had more to do with the ball carrier than the O line. He wanted to grade his O line on consistency of good blocking. He would do the same for all other teams also. I can’t remember the exact stats but it was something like 8 out of 10 seasons the 9ers ranking amongst other teams moved up if they weren’t first already. I would like to see them resign Moseley but Houston may out bid them. I would like to see them sign Daron Payne and trade for Chase Young but I can’t see Wash giving up both of them so I would take either one of them.

    1. I would be shocked if your predictions come even close to being true. The Niners build not just for the present, but for the future as well. They aren’t going to mortgage their future with more expensive contracts. Thus they prefer to build through the draft. They’ve shown to be very careful with free agents. I don’t see the need for any “major” free agents on this team with the possible exception of edge but they are hard to find and very expensive.

      1. Felix,
        The 49ers have 5 key players they signed as FAs off of other teams, Juice, C. Ward, Gould, McCloud, and Ridgeway. They also have three starters who came via major trades CMC, Williams and Lance. Last year they made one major FA signing. I am predicting just one more than last year. They like every team restructure multiple contracts every year if they didn’t they wouldn’t be able to field 90 players at the beginning of camp. They probably could only field around 70. If they don’t do major restructuring this off season they likely couldn’t field a practice squad. So you are correct the chance of my predictions coming true are slim ( I don’t know which players KS and JL really like) but it won’t be because the 9ers don’t restructure contracts, sign major FAs or make major trades. You are also correct in that the 49ers like most teams like to build by the draft but my predictions are predicated on the fact that they don’t have a first or second round pick to build with.

  4. I can see John Lynch packaging some draft picks to get into the 2nd rd. Making deals going into the draft has been Lynch’s M.O.

    But if he decides to stay pat and keep his picks, there is still a very good chance that the 49ers will obtain viable talent, and given their highest picks beginning in the 3rd rd, contracts would be very doable. The 49ers will obviously need to hit some home-runs with those 3rd rd picks.
    NFL Combines are right around the corner.

  5. May I suggest to this blog a visit to one of several San Francisco psychotherapists renowned for treating challenging delusional disorders. The one at issue here, a pesky form of mental confusion known medically as Boosteritis or more commonly in the Bay Area as Niners Homerism, seems to have afflicted virtually everyone on this blog, excepting Allie, Jaxson, one or two others. The psychotherapists I’m thinking of — you’ve heard their names — are taking appointments as early as next week. Please, do the Bay Area a favor. Seek help. Better yet, listen to the Cohns, father Lowell and son Grant, who yesterday nailed it on their podcast: Kyle Michael Shanahan will never win a Super Bowl as the Niners coach.

    1. It sure is great to be a Niner fan and make it to such a high level in the playoffs 3 of the last 4 years. “Who has it better than us”? No one.

    2. 49ersunder,
      Therapy is a good thing listening to GC is not. If you want to listen to any of the local 9er bloggers I would recommend Krueger, Lombardi and of course our fearless leader Jack Hammer.

    3. wow..I made it into the Non-Boosterism Hall of Fame! It is true I saw, in my prescience, the loss to come. I could not see Brock injured and I knew he would be. I had to hide in Pacific Heights! I did not watch the SB but was unimpressed to read how poorly both defenses did. Niners could beat the Eagles. Too erlry to know about the Mahommes phenomenon.

  6. Although the 49ers ultimately lost that game (to the Chiefs) 44-23, they kept pace with the Chiefs throughout much of the contest.

    Yes, but didn’t the very same scenario occur in the Super Bowl in 2019??? I don’t get the rationale, Jack.

    And if they keep their starting quarterback healthy.

    When has that happened?

  7. Why isn’t GB WhatsApp available in the Play Store? The google Play Store requires software to pass certain standards of security and privacy in order to be approved. Therefore, the fact that it isn’t available on the store means that it does not follow Google’s rules to be able to be included in the official store.

  8. Does any one know if their would be a dead cap money hit if they trade Kinlaw? I have read/heard from a couple of sources that if Kinlaw is back next year its likely that he will be on IR most of the season and activated late in the year to be available for the final game and the playoffs. I was also reading on Bleacher Report that the 49ers are looking to restructure Williams contract and that alone could save 14 mill.

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