“I think the quarterback is very important. Do I think he’s the most important? No, I don’t. I think the rules of the NFL, I think there’s certain things that have made the quarterback the most important thing, but once again the thing that I feel is this: If the only way that you could win football games is that you have to have a good quarterback or a great quarterback, then I would say that the quarterback is the most important thing in this game. A great example is the game we played on Sunday. I think Matt Cassel is a good quarterback. Do I think he’s a great quarterback? Do I think he’s the most important part of that offense? No I do not. But they won the game. So I feel that it’s important for us, and I think every team is different. If I’m a passing team, yes, I think the quarterback could be. If I am the Indianapolis Colts, yes I think the quarterback is the most important part. If I am the New England Patriots, I think the quarterback is the most important part of that offense. The 49ers right now, I feel that the quarterback is very important, but I don’t think he’s the most important part of our offense. I think there are 11 guys, and in this offense, I want 11 guys to know that each and every one of them on every play are very important.”
“As a starting quarterback in the NFL, you are more responsible for wins and losses than any player on the field.”
Recent history suggests Alex Smith is right. And Mike Singletary is
wrong. In the modern-day NFL, teams typically can’t succeed without a
top quarterback. Oh, teams can win some games with guys like Matt Cassel. But teams with Peyton Manning and Tom Brady win more. A lot more.
This is not revolutionary. There’s a reason nine of the past 12 top
overall picks in the NFL Draft have been quarterbacks. Pick Manning — Peyton or Eli — and win a Super Bowl. Pick Tim Couch and set the franchise back a
decade.
With this in mind, the answer to a popular question – Will the Niners turn it around? – is possibly quite simple.
If Alex Smith plays better, the 49ers will turn it around.
If Alex Smith – or his replacement – doesn’t play better, the 49ers won’t.
In other words, the Niners will be, like so many teams, only as good as
their quarterback. That’s simplifying things a bit. But perhaps not too
much.
Consider these numbers from the 2009 season and, as you do, consider
that Alex Smith’s 66.1 rating this season ranks 27th in the NFL:
• Of the 12 playoff teams, 11 had a quarterback ranked among the top half of the league (top 16) in passer rating.
• Of the 12 playoff teams, five had a running back who gained 1,000 yards.
• Of the quarterbacks ranked among the top 16 in passer rating, 13
played for teams with a winning record. Teams with a top-16 quarterback
had a record of 162-94.
• Of the quarterbacks ranked No. 17-32 in passer rating, two played for
teams with a winning record. Teams with a quarterback ranked 17-32 had a
record of 94-162.
• The 14 teams with a 1,000-yard running back had a record of 109-115.
(Carolina had two 1,000-yard running backs and finished 8-8).
• The top four rated quarterbacks (Drew Brees, Brett Favre, Phillip
Rivers and Aaron Rodgers) played for teams with a combined record of
49-15.
• The top four rushers (Chris Johnson, Steven Jackson, Thomas Jones and
Maurice Jones-Drew) played for teams with a combined record of 25-39.
In the opening, I said recent history suggested Singletary was wrong.
But he was right about one thing – the rules of the NFL have made the
quarterback the most important player on the field.
The Niners need to play by those rules. And hope Alex Smith can follow the directions.
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