The San Francisco 49ers (8-6) look to keep the possibility of chasing down the Arizona Cardinals for the NFC West crown when they take on the reeling Tennessee Titans (9-5) Thursday night at Nissan Stadium in Nashville Tennessee.
San Francisco has won two of its last three games played on Thursday nights, however this will be the longest the team has traveled on such a short week since playing at St. Louis in the fourth week of the 2013 season.
The combination of a short turnaround, long flight and a physical opponent made this appear to be a scheduled loss when the 2021 schedule was announced.
Here are five questions to watch for on Thursday night:
- Who creates the most turnovers?
A lot has been made about the Titans’ lack of offensive success without star running back Derrick Henry over the last six weeks as Tennessee has gone 3-3.
While the loss of Henry has been a blow, the bigger issue for Tennessee has been their inability to hold on to the football.
Tennessee has turned the ball over 13 times and forced none during those three losses. In the three victories the Titans have turned the ball over only once while forcing seven turnovers.
The ability to hold on to the ball has been key to success for San Francisco all season as well. The 49ers have won all five contests in which they win the turnover battle and 1-4 if they have more turnovers than their opponents. San Francisco is 2-2 when they give up as many turnovers as they force.
Considering how tightly matched these two teams are, the team which creates the most turnovers will likely come out on top.
- Can the 49ers move the ball on the ground?
Tennessee will provide the 49ers’ running game its greatest challenge so far this season. While the Titans are allowing about the same yards per rushing attempt as two previous opponents — Seattle and Los Angeles — they’ve allowed a league best 2.7 yards per attempt over the last four weeks.
During this time, the one team that was able to find a moderate amount of success on the ground against Tennessee was the New England Patriots. The Patriots were able to average 4.4 yards per attempt, a number which could provide some optimism for the 49ers outlook in this game given the similarities in the two offenses.
- Will Jimmy Garoppolo be able to carry the offense?
If the 49ers’ running game struggles like it did at times against Cincinnati, moving the offense could fall on the shoulders of Jimmy Garoppolo.
Garoppolo has proven to be up to the task over the last eight weeks, compiling a passer rating of 104.7.
This week he will be facing a Tennessee defense which has allowed the second lowest passer rating among the 49ers opponents this season, 86.4.
The key to success for Garoppolo and San Francisco’s passing game will likely rest with the offensive line. Tennessee has three pass rushers with over seven sacks this season, Harold Landry (11), Jeffrey Simmons (7.5) and Denico Autry (7.0).
As we’ve seen with the 49ers’ defense in recent weeks, getting to the quarterback can lead to turnovers, which could be deadly in this matchup.
- Can the 49ers’ defense stop the run?
With Derrick Henry out it would be easy to believe the Titans running game has fallen off, however that would be incorrect.
Over the last four weeks, D’Onta Foreman, Dontrell Hilliard and Jeremy McNichols have powered the Tennessee offense to an average of 4.8 yards per rushing attempt.
On the other side of the ball is a San Francisco defense which has been stellar against the run the last four weeks, allowing only 3.8 yards per rush attempt while holding three of four opponents under 90 total yards on the ground — the lone exception during this time being the 146 yards allowed in a loss to Seattle.
- Will the 49ers’ defense be able to keep Ryan Tannehill down?
The play of Ryan Tannehill has been the primary culprit in the dropoff for the Tennessee offense without Derrick Henry.
In the last six games Tannehill has averaged a passer rating of 75.8 and posted a rating over 90 only once. In addition to the low passer rating, Tannehill has thrown seven interceptions and lost one of six fumbles.
While help for Tannehill may be on the way with wide receivers Julio Jones healthy and A.J. Brown expected to be activated, the Titans will be without starting left tackle Taylor Lewan and left guard Rodger Saffold.
The loss of two starting offensive linemen along with the ineffectiveness of right tackle David Quessenberry in pass protection could allow the 49ers pass rush to continue helping a secondary which has struggled without Emmanuel Moseley the last two weeks.
Over the last eight weeks, Nick Bosa, Arden Key, Arik Armstead, and Samson Ebukam have recorded 19.5 sacks. If they can take advantage of the Titans’ backup offensive linemen, it could be another long day for Tannehill.
Prediction
49ers 20 Titans 23
I sure hope your prediction is wrong but I know it will be a tough contest especially in the run game on both sides of the ball. Jimmy will need to have a good game and as always turnovers are key.
Mitchell out again for the 49ers. Al-Shair questionable.
Even more interesting is the news that the Titans starting LT and LG are both out.
Will Ryans overload that side with Bosa and Armstead?
I always like running screens against teams like Tennessee who have multiple guys who can rush the passer. 49ers never seem to do that though. This game feels like a mortal lock for the Under. Hope Robbie Gould brought his good leg and not the peg leg we’ve seen several times.
Offensively I am feeling lots of play action and pass to open the run.
Julio is a non factor due to the hamstring issue he has had really since last year in ATL. Brown you have to worry about but the connection between him and Tannehill will be rusty. I think it’s close because Jimmy will have at least 1 turnover.
49ers 23 Titans 17
Nice write up Jack, but I have another take.
9ers + 2 turnovers final score 21-10 niners
Jack Hammer:
I do not see how your pre-game analysis leads to a prediction of a Niners loss. Your five questions and observations suggest a close game but not a Titans victory. Where is the logic in this post that would produce the prediction?
They are 2-2 in their last 4 games . They lost to the Texans and Pats and beat the Jags and Saints (minus Kamara). We are the best team they have faced in the last 6 weeks.
Prediction: Niners 24 Titans 13
I don’t really agree with your assessment, Rockne. The 49ers are good enough to beat the Titans. There are certain keys to victory that are definitely possible but may not be likely. To me, the 49ers do not match up well with the Titans. 49ers struggle mightily against teams with good run defenses. I’m thinking this is a 17-13 game and either team could be on either end of that score. Because the Titans are at home, I think it’s a Titan victory.
Titans back up left tackle just ruled out with Covid. Bosa is licking his lips with prospect of playing against 3rd string tackle.