Where there’s smoke there’s fire. There’s been a lot of smoke around the possibility of the 49ers trading Trey Lance recently.
According to NFL insider Ian Rapoport, the 49ers have been fielding calls from several teams with interest in acquiring the former number three pick. Rapoport made sure in his report to note the call are coming from other teams and not the 49ers.
The report from Rapoport came out shortly after a rumor surfaced stating San Francisco has been in several pre-draft trade discussions with teams about moving into the second round or early in the third round.
San Francisco has left the door open to trading Lance this offseason when asked if such a move was on the table. This is in stark contrast to how they shot down trade rumors prior to the draft last year involving wide receiver Deebo Samuel.
Possible landing spots for Lance could be Houston, Indianapolis, and Tennessee.
Houston has a pair of first round picks along with the first pick in the second round. The Texans could choose to build up their roster with a pass rusher and offensive lineman in the first round, then use their selection at 33rd overall to grab Lance.
This move would allow the 49ers to grab one of the top offensive linemen available to replace Mike McGlinchey.
Making this move isn’t without risk. San Francisco has talked openly about their belief in Brock Purdy moving forward. However, Purdy is currently recovering from surgery to repair the torn UCL in his throwing arm suffered in the NFC championship game.
San Francisco has been in constant contact with Purdy since the surgery. The quarterback recently had the brace removed and is back in Santa Clara for the beginning of the offseason program. He will be working closely with the 49ers strength and conditioning staff during his rehab.
Another layer of a potential Lance trade would be the salary cap implications.
Moving on from Lance during the draft would create $11.08 million in dead cap for the 49ers. This is more than it would cost to keep Lance on as a backup, or if they were to trade him following June 1.
Perhaps San Francisco feels the best move is to cut ties now. They already have the major pieces to their roster in place and moving Lance prior to June 1 alleviates any further cap charges.
The 49ers also could make up that cap space through restructuring the contracts of veterans such as Christian McCaffrey, along with the new deal they hope to finalize with Nick Bosa this offseason.
San Francisco has shown interest in several quarterbacks during the run up to the draft.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson has met with the 49ers several times in recent months. The UCLA quarterback has the athleticism and experience San Francisco covets in the position. Tanner McKee is another option. San Francisco has seen the Stanford product up close during the pro day in Palo Alto and their own local pro day last week at Levi’s Stadium.
The NFL draft opens on Thursday night with round one. The prospects for Lance still being a 49er when it comes to a close Saturday are 50-50 at best.
On the cap, I spoke with Jason Hurley (49erscap.com) and he noted that the cap hit if Lance is traded before the draft would be 1.55 million with no dead cap hit going forward.
That is incorrect. Lance has a cap hit of $9.3 million for 2023. If he is traded before June 1 the cap hit escalates to $11.08 million..
Interesting. If there is a Lance trade, I see the larger move involving the Dolphins.
In the wake of Tua saying that he contemplated retirement after his last concussion it makes me wonder if another concussion were to occur, Tua could seriously rethink his future in the NFL.
Also, I can’t disregard the fact that with McDaniels as head coach, it just makes more sense that Trey would be a better fit in Miami than Minnesota.
TBD
A Lance trade was reported on this blog several days ago with Lance going to the Vikings for a 2nd and 4th and the trade officially completed after June 1. Don’t think there can be much doubt anymore that Niners have lost confidence in Lance, which makes their decision to get him for 3 1st round draft picks and a third all the more suspect and foolish. But shhh! We don’t criticize Lynch-Shanahan here, do we?
It’s to early to criticize anyone. Up to this point, all talk regarding Lance is merely conjecture and speculation.
I’ll respectfully, wait until the dust settles if there is a Lance move.
Garry, morons criticize them all the time.
I mean, if they are being graded in a bizarre scale where perfect = good……then sure, they stink! as does everyone else….no one is perfect.
But if we eliminate delusion……then how can you criticize a top 5 franchise that finishes top 4 every year…….while being the only team to do so without a top 5 super elite qb?
You know what? I’m torn between keeping or trading him. Lance has been throwing with Patrick Mahomes!! What if Lance developes into the second coming of Patrick? That means it would come back to haunt us if we play him on another team. I see potential in Trey. He was slowed by injuries which slowed down his development. I would hate to see him stick it to us one day, especially in the playoffs.
I’m not sure about trading Lance. It seems too soon to me.
Keep him at this time, DO NOT rush Brock The last thing we need is Brock to re- injure his arm.
Trey still has potential, give him a real shot. Support and start him, create a REAL Trey game plan
where he is asked to be a scrambling Q. back , NOT a running Q. back. If he can’t hit the open guys, or has steady bad ball placement / decision making then move on, next year.
Felix,
You and I don’t agree often but evidently we do on this one. I don’t think you can trade Lance at least until BP proves he is back at 100% and even then I think it would be too soon. I would like to see BP back at 100% and playing well for 10 games or so. Proving that D coordinators didn’t catch up to him in the off season. I think they need to hang on to TL until next years draft. Hopefully by then he has proven his worth and increased his trade value and Darnold or a 23 draftee has proven to be a solid #2. imho
you are right on the money . no need to panic wait a year see how it plays out
Agree with OC. Give Lance a real chANCEPurdy is wonderful but can he play at the same level even if he does fully recover?
A trusted sports writer that I highly respect has this to say re a possible Lance trade..
“The 49ers have reasons to like Lance on their team, including because of the uncertainty surrounding Purdy’s recovery and timetable. And that’s how it will remain … unless, of course, the 49ers receive an offer they believe they simply cannot afford to turn down.”
~ Matt Maiocco
The 49ers FO has said that they are always open to trades that improve the team. So, that prospect is there.
I said last month that trading Lance at this point without knowing the full extent of Purdy’s health and putting their trust in a inconsistent QB (Sammy D) is premature.
I haven’t changed my mindset on that.
But, I’m not the GM.
Yeah, I can’t see SF trading him until they get more info on Brock.
There are several issues that make hard for me to fathom.
Brock’s next milestone is after the draft and SF is on the hook for Trey’s salary regardless. Rather than just keeping him and restructuring McCaffery to bring in a difference maker or at least have ability to add someone when someone is inevitably injured.
– In the above scenario where they trade Trey, they would still be up against the cap after the restructure.
and if they got bad news regarding Pudy’s recovery they would need Darnold to be the Starter, to draft a rookie or 2 and still sign a backup just to get through training camp.
– Even if Purdy’s return is fine, if someone got hurt as inevitably happens, they would be looking at absolute scrapheap pieces. This would not be the case if they kept Trey.
– The only way Trading try makes senses this year is if they get a high draft pick because in every scenario above he hurts the team more by not being on it.
Indeed they already have the major pieces to their roster in place and moving Lance prior to June 1 alleviates any further cap charges…
I have a buddy who is a national writer for MLB. He knows quite a few NFL writers. Story is the nickname for Ian Rappaport is “NeverVerifyAStory”aport.
Having said that, I’m sure the 49ers are receiving calls about Lance. Given the situation with Purdy and Darnold it only makes sense teams would inquire. Just like teams are likely inquiring about Davis Mills, Drew Lock, and Skylar Thompson. Saying the 49ers are actually negotiating terms of a trade is a whole different ball of wax. It’s like these national guys look at the landscape and guess what is happening then fill in the blanks to present rumors as fact. Sure there’s a chance Trey Lance could get traded but Rapaport is filling words on pages to get a paycheck. Kind of annoying.
I agree with that. It’s click bait. It doesn’t make sense for the Niners to trade him next week leaving them with 1 healthy QB whose never played a down for SF. Eventually they could trade Lance under different circumstances. What makes sense to me, is trading Aiyuk during the draft if they have someone they really like at a position of need. They are going to be faced with a huge contract for him next year and they already have Deebo, Kittle and MacCaffrey.
I know I’m very likely in the minority here but I think the 49ers need Aiyuk. He’s the best pure WR on the team. Deebo is the Swiss Army knife who can line up in the backfield or take a hitch to the house. Aiyuk is the route runner who can break ankles downfield. Aiyuk takes some of the overloaded pressure off Deebo so they are a great compliment. I’m very hopeful the 49ers keep Aiyuk.
Pat,
I would rather see them trade Deebo. They already have a replacement for Deebo in CMC. It would just mean more carries for Mitchell (if he can stay healthy) and Mason. Aiyuk stays healthy and Deebo doesn’t. Lastly I think they might get more back for Deebo.
Like Coach, if they’re going to trade a WR, I hope it’s Deebo imo, for all the reasons Coach stated.
In addition, I’d like them to replace Mitchell with a runner like Zach Charbonnet out of UCLA. Hopefully they could get a 6th round pick for Mitchell, which he cost originally. If not, they should just release him. Too injury-prone, not his fault, just a miss-match between the way he plays, his body, and the pounding he takes.
Here’s video on Charbonnet, for anyone who’s not familiar with him:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUyhc34xhmc
How stupid can this team be. We would be selling low on a young QB with a ton of potential. A QB we gave up a ton to get. A QB who has more talent then Purdy and Darnold combined. Watch us give him up for a 2nd and he becomes the next Mahomes with his new team while this joke of a franchise sticks with a noodle arm 7th rd pick and a turnover machine 1st rd bust. I am convinced the biggest loser Shanahan has no clue how to evaluate QB’s.
Apparently stupid enough to take a 2nd round pick for a guy they used 3 first rd picks on. Someone really did not do there homework, the whole operation of drafting lance did not seem right. If Lance really was as good as the niners had hoped we are not talking about this at all.. never mind the injury history he already has.
If Houston Miami and Tennessee know him and his potential as a starting qb, a trade would have already been done if any trade at all. He really must just not be what the 49ers are lookng for in a QB.
I think the niners think they can find another BP in the lower rounds, unfortunately they will have competition this time since other teams will try to emulate what the 49ers have accomplished with BP, and to be frank we still don’t fully know about BP until he starts for a full season, he could have a serious regression once teams have had a chance to game plan for him or worse get hurt again.
It’s just talk. He hadn’t been traded and probably won’t be anytime soon.
“Stupid enough” to be in the NFC Championship game 3 out of 6 years that Shanahan has been the 49ers HC. Lynch/Shanahan took over the disastrous 49ers in 2017 and completely flipped the roster. They are now one of the top teams in the NFL. I trust Lynch and Shanahan know what they’re doing.
Think of all the reasons for keeping Lance including that he could become as great as he was projected to be when drafted or that he is at least insurance for such a fluid QB position in 2023, and for what? For a high pick as if a draft pick is a sure thing. Draft picks stink, too, and on this and other sites, they’re severly overrated.
“Draft picks stink, too, and on this and other sites, they’re severly overrated.”
I agree in part, yet, this is the time of year that football fans look forward to. The draft breeds a newness of life to underachieving teams and allows fans to share interest in their potential drafted players.
In two words – it’s fun.
AES,
and draft picks are cheap for up to 5 years and teams like the 49ers need cheap quality players to deal with the cap.
Yup.
With the exception of a few undrafted FA, all football players get drafted. There is no other way to build a team. It’s not a science so yes many turn out not be be as good as you thought. This is true with all teams in all sports. It’s the same if you run a business and hire people. Some turn out better than you expected and some turn out worse. In business, wether football or otherwise, you embrace the challenge and do the best you can. Fortunately the Niners have been one of the best teams at evaluating talent.
The Rams built their SB team primarily through free agency and trades and now they are paying for ir.
Believe it or not, morons criticize them all the time.
I mean, if they are being graded in a bizarre scale where perfect = good……then sure, they stink! as does everyone else….no one is perfect…
Like Coach, if they’re going to trade a WR, I hope it’s Deebo imo, for all the reasons Coach stated.
In addition, I’d like them to replace Mitchell with a runner like Zach Charbonnet out of UCLA. Hopefully they could get a 6th round pick for Mitchell, which he cost originally. If not, they should just release him. Too injury-prone, not his fault, just a miss-match between the way he plays, his body, and the pounding he takes.
Here’s video on Charbonnet, for anyone who’s not familiar with him:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUyhc34xhmc
George,
I had the opportunity to watch Charbonnet in 3 or 4 games this past season. He looked outstanding every time. It would really be interesting to see the 9ers reunite him with DTR. Usually I like to see the 9ers draft college players with quite a few games under their belts. Usually, but not so much with RBs. RBs only have so much tread on their tires and Charbonnet has used much of his. He had 565 carries in college that along with 75 receptions is a lot of touches. I like him but not too early maybe with their 6th round pick. imho
Coach, I hadn’t considered all those touches.
That aside, I’ve been thinking that another factor going for him is that he’s of the size, speed and athleticism to use as a “big slot.” He’s a very good open-field runner and can juke with the best of them.
George,
Also very good hands.
They have already made the commitment to Deebo and are not trading him. He’s their guy because they love the physicality he brings.
Felix,
My point was, IF the 9ers were going to trade either I would rather they trade Deebo before Aiyuk.
I cannot believe how much trade chatter there is out there regarding the 49ers. Usually I would just look at it as the regular predraft click bait but where there is this much smoke there is usually just a little bit of fire. Aiyuk or Lance who is the likely target? As much as I disagree with either trade I think if there is a trade it will be for Lance. If they do trade him I can’t see them pulling the trigger for less than a late 1 or early 2. If they haven’t made a trade by early Thurs. at the very least it should make the 1st round interesting for 9er fans. A trade I see as much more likely is #101 for 2 4th round picks. After picking 2 late 3rds there just might not be any other players who the 9ers are interested and there may be a team (the Pats) out there with 2 4th round picks who may want to jump back up into the 3rd round to scoop up a player they don’t see lasting until their 4th round pick.
Trades during the draft are made because they are targeting a specific player. They won’t trade either one if it doesn’t involve someone they covet. It will only happen to get a specific player. I believe Aiyuk is the one they would trade because next year he will be due a huge increase and because the risk at the QB position is just too great at this point in time. We will know in 7 days.
The only teams, imho, that I see trading for Lance are the Dolphins, Texans and Tennessee who have upper personnel familiar with Trey.
The Jets may also be one of those team’s but I think that they give Wilson an opportunity to reclaim his college style high level of play before making a move.
I would not trade Deebo.
I could argue that Deebo’s value to the team is just as important as CMC’s. For one (there are others), even with CMC as the RB, Deebo was still used in RB situations as he’s done in the past.
I would readily admit that trading Deebo would bring a back a nice draft pick, but hollowing out the strength and staple players of your team in hopes that a high draft pick can make your team better just doesn’t work for me.
AES,
Trading a player for a pick is always a gamble, talent wise. Trading a player for a pick is always a winning proposition, cap wise.
Coach,
The biggest gamble here is that you rid the team of a sure pro-bowl player in hopes of saving money and finding another pro-bowler type. That’s what I mean by the danger of hallowing out core players.
My mindset is that keeping players that are proven stars and give the team a better chance at winning have enormous value and worth doing whatever it takes to keep them.
Let Paraag work his magic.
Aes,
I think Paraag has gone to Leeds.
I believe that he has. But I believe that the 49ers have also become part owners of the Leeds United team.
I have yet to hear any official announcement that Marathe has left his post with the 49ers.
I have heard rumors that JL will move up to VP of football operations and Adam Peters will be the GM.
Like I wrote, “as much as I disagree with either trade” it gives me reason to watch that 1st round just in case the 9ers end up with a pick. I do believe there is a much better chance they trade out of the 3rd for a couple of picks in the 4th round or a mid/early 4th and an early 5th.