Run-to-pass ratios and “dealer’s choice” plays

Earlier I wrote that Bears offensive coordinator Mike Tice has been too focused on passing this season. One poster on this blog cited Tice’s 50-50 run-to-pass ratio as a counterargument.

A 50-50 run to pass ratio does not prove anything other than a coach in the press box tracking runs and passes, for whatever inane reason.

Calling plays is not like handing out M&Ms – one for you, one for me, etc.

You have to go with your best weapons and feed the ball to your difference makers.  Good teams have tendencies and tend to do things over and that is why they are good.  The better the team the more the tendencies because success is a repetitive issue.

Think about it this way: Most teams are fortunate to average 64 plays in a game.

Of those plays, the play caller may have 16 that are plays he can call without influence by down, distance, ball position, score or time of game in half or the 4th Q – i.e. “dealer’s choice.”

Those 16 plays are the ones for which coordinators should prepare because those are the game changers and should include at least a six-pack of quick sixes –  surefire touchdowns.

Those other plays are determined by where the ball is, etc.  In other words, if you have the ball 1st and 10 at your 10 yard-line, there are only a few plays in your entire play book that you dare call, and you probably have installed those plays early in training camp.

Same thing when it is 1st and goal on the 3 yard-line – you have your bread and butter goal line runs, so there is no game planning there.  You are going to go with your strengths and your best plays that have been rehearsed since day one when you installed your goal line runs.

Keep an eye out for both Tice’s “dealer’s choice” plays on Monday night, and see if they are dynamic game changers or not.

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