Where Jimmy Garoppolo will play in 2022

The 49ers brass did a good deal of posturing regarding their situation with Jimmy Garoppolo during the NFL owner’s meeting.

John Lynch, Kyle Shanahan, and Jed York all struck a similar tone; they are OK having Garoppolo and his $26.95 million salary-cap hit on their roster, even if he’s backing up Trey Lance. That is unless another team gives them the compensation they are looking for.

“We were always going to hold true to what we thought his value was,” Lynch said. “Right now, we hold onto him. I think we’re fortunate we have three quarterbacks that we believe in, Trey, Jimmy, and Nate (Sudfeld). Some people are looking for one, and I think that’s a position of strength.”

Is there a chance San Francisco could decide to release Garoppolo once his shoulder has healed and they are no longer obligated to pay his injury guarantee?

“I don’t foresee that; he’s too good of a player,” said Lynch. “I think Jimmy will be playing for us or somebody else, and he’s too good of a player not to be.”

In my opinion, Jimmy Garoppolo won’t be with the 49ers in 2022, and he’s going to be a Carolina Panther.

Here’s how I see this playing out.

Carolina has the sixth pick in the draft; however, they don’t have another until the fourth round, pick 137. As a result, any trade of selections between the two teams would likely be for picks in 2023.

The 49ers could sit on Garoppolo and receive at least a third-round comp pick for the quarterback in 2023. 

In exchange for Garoppolo, Carolina will send San Francisco a conditional third-round pick in 2023. This pick would jump to the second round if Garoppolo were to meet specific playing time requirements.

This trade benefits San Francisco because they are guaranteed to get something better than the comp pick they would otherwise receive.

A winning season is likely necessary for Panthers head coach Matt Rhule to hold on to his job, and Rhule has won only ten games in his first two seasons in Carolina.

Carolina has the necessary cap space to take on Garoppolo’s contract, and the Panthers need to upgrade the quarterback position. Let’s face it; Jimmy Garoppolo would give them a better chance of winning than Sam Darnold or any of the available rookies.

This article has 21 Comments

  1. Are the Yorks the driving force behind keeping Garoppolo and his $26.95 million salary-cap hit unless another team gives them the compensation they are looking for? Sure seems so. Lynch and Shanahan now have their hands tied in free agency until Garoppolo goes & the Yorks get their “compensation” which means some potentially good and needed free agents are being squandered and will not get hired.

      1. Per Grant Cohn & a number of his online followers, “The 49ers’ No. 1 goal in 2022 is to get something for Jimmy Garoppolo. Their No. 2 goal is to win the Super Bowl.”

        Or as John York was once quoted as saying, and it surely seems still believes, “We’re going to run the 49ers like a business.” Indeed.

  2. Jack
    I don’t comment often, but I do read your take on what’s up with the 9er. Not to be rude, but I don’t think there’s much left to be said on JG’s situation until he’s capable of throwing the ball, which we all know won’t be until OTA’s

    The NFL draft is ~ a month from now, and I’d like to get your take on the 9ers draft picks. The positions, the players they’ll draft and a short analysis of the players JL & KS draft.
    Thanks Jack, looking forward to your take on what the 9ers will do.

    1. The earliest JG is expected to throw is the end of June when OTA’s will be over. There are so many complicated permutations it’s hard to predict what will happen in the first round let alone starting your draft in the low sixties.

      What makes the QB talk pervasive is the background of the two players involved, the strength of the current roster, and the need to give Tray Lance the best chance to develop. I don’t think anyone can know for sure what the best for Lance approach will be. If Lance had been selected with the 12th overall pick, then the plan would have been simple — sit him until JG’s contract is completed. That’s why Rogers, selected 24th, sat so long.

    2. Geep,

      Thank you for reading. I’ll be putting together position by position reviews soon with the free agency rush behind us. First up will be offensive line.

  3. Just Keep Jimmy please, we cannot put all our eggs in Trey Lance basket. Its only Lance’s second year, he is really slow releasing the ball, and his footwork still needs work. It’s the NFL even if Lance is the guy, you need a quality back up, Lance runs between the tackles like Tebow.

    1. First of all Trey does not run like Tebow. He is faster, more elusive and a smarter runner. Don’t judge him by
      what you saw last year, that was secondary game planning because Jimmy was the primary. When Trey
      gets the game plan + ALL the first team reps + a real off season you’ll see.
      Second QB brains don’t like that. Jimmy is not a robot, a demotion like that would blow up the locker room.

  4. Seems as logical a scenario as any I guess. If Carolina trades for Baker then I don’t see any other landing spot for Jimmy.

    Now onto the draft. I really like Kenyon Green and Bernhard Raimann as potential picks to plug in at RG. Raimann has a pretty amazing story. And I think Green was a 5 Star #1 O lineman coming out of high school. Tx A&M had some injuries and other things that caused them to move him around all over the line and that may have impacted his draft status. He’s a 1st round talent in my opinion. Any chance either of those guys would be available when the 49ers pick?

  5. Here’s an analysis of the 4 games Trey played.
    https://www.si.com/nfl/49ers/news/49ers-quarterback-trey-lance-is-not-good-on-game-film

    This is Lance’s NFL resume, which concluded with a 33.4 ESPN QBR (which is defined as the adjusted total quarterback rating, this values the quarterback on all play types on a 0-100 scale adjusted for the strength of opposing defenses faced).

    That number ranks Lance No. 29 QB in the league by ESPN’s standards.

    .

    This is the conundrum Shanahan is faced with. This is why he hasn’t come out and named Lance as the starter yet. This is why he hasn’t parted with Jimmy Garoppolo yet. This is why Shanahan hasn’t made a decision.

    The raw data simply is not good enough to support one, so he’s stalling.

  6. There is a strong argument to be made that we need a healthy Jimmy G to back up TL going into the season. Hard to know if TL is the real thing or not but it is clear we way overpaid for him. Sudfeld is a practice squad perennial and was way overpaid as well.
    That bad shoulder likely cost us the loss against LA in the playoffs and a Superbowl appearance. It has also cost us in the months after the season.

  7. It seems to me that the price for Lance has gone down. We got a three for our twelve last year and gave up a very late first round this year and probably nothing better than a twenty next year. Keeping JG for 2022 will increase the odds that next year’s first will be a late one.

    Now let’s let Lance grow.

  8. My concern for 2022 is will the OL keep the running game going through the playoffs? The Rams won the forth quarter. Was that OL or JG’s shoulder? Or both?

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