San Francisco’s success at the top of the 2019 draft has created a bit of a problem for the organization.
Nick Bosa and Deebo Samuel have proven themselves to be two of the top young players at their positions.
Now the 49ers need to decide if they can pay both or if it’s time to move on from one of their young stars.
Here is why San Francisco should choose not to pay Nick Bosa.
1. Injury history
Nick Bosa has a lengthy injury history that dates to high school, where he tore an ACL his senior season. More recently, Bosa has missed all but five games in two of his last four seasons.
2. Lack of production
Bosa’s sack total over the past two years (15.5) is dwarfed by T.J. Watt’s total over the last two years (37.5).
The 49ers may not be willing to give Bosa the amount of guaranteed money he is looking for, considering his injury history and overall lack of production the last two seasons. Watt currently is at the top of the edge rusher market, signing a new four-year deal last year, which included $80 million guaranteed.
Before you think I’ve completely lost my mind, the above was primarily written in jest.
Both above points have been used recently to illustrate why Deebo Samuel should not be given close to the top contract at his position, all while many continue to make the opposite case for Nick Bosa.
Here are the facts as I see them:
Deebo Samuel and Nick Bosa are special talents.
Only Jerry Rice produced more yards as a rookie among 49ers wide receivers than Samuel in 2019. Through the first eight weeks of 2021, Samuel was on pace for 1,766 receiving yards; this would have ranked second all-time in San Francisco history to, you guessed it, Jerry Rice.
The total also would have been ahead of those of Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and Stefon Diggs a season ago, the three receivers who have received big paydays already this offseason.
Bosa finished with 9.5 sacks and was named NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year as a rookie. After missing all but five quarters of the 2020 season due to a torn ACL, Bosa returned to post 15.5 sacks.
Both have extensive injury histories, which makes signing either to lengthy contracts with large guarantees risky.
Bosa and Samuel each dealt with several injuries throughout their college careers. They also each missed significant time due to injury in 2020.
It takes a leap of faith to give either of these two significant contracts.
The 49ers are unlikely to find replacements through the draft for years to come.
San Francisco went over 20 years between hitting on a wide receiver in the draft. Terrell Owens, drafted in 1996, is the only receiver selected by the 49ers who comes close to the talent of Samuel.
It’s a similar situation at defensive end. Before selecting Bosa, Aldon Smith was the last pass rusher with this type of talent. Drafted in 2011, Smith terrorized opposing quarterbacks before his career in San Francisco was cut short. Before Smith, Charles Haley was the last great 49ers pass rusher. Haley was drafted in 1986.
Both Nick Bosa and Deebo Samuel are worth of receiving contracts that put them near the top of their position.
For Nick Bosa, the top of the market guarantee would require the 49ers to go over $80 million guaranteed. The total guarantee for Deebo Samuel would need to be greater than $72.2 million.
The largest guarantee ever given by San Francisco is $74.1 million received by Jimmy Garoppolo in 2018.
Now I’d like to hear from you. Should the 49ers give both Nick Bosa and Deebo Samuel new contracts near the top of their position?
If not, who deserves it, and why?
Does anyone see an offensive lineman in this picture?:
https://twitter.com/mmcglinch68/status/1512514731512254466?s=20
Because at that weight I sure as heck don’t!
Most current information has him at 300+ and rehab is progressing well.
https://www.49erswebzone.com/articles/157423-49ers-mike-mcglinchey-shows-rehab-progress-workout-video/
Thanks for that.
I’m not sure if I’d trust that picture of the scale as current. He might be posting it as motivation because he certainly looks nowhere near 310 in his post from just 5 days ago.
Lynch also sounded inasmuch as he’s pleased he’s also setting expectations in terms of a late comeback for McG. The statement about giving him all the time he needs is telling.
Who knows… 🤷🏽♂️
I buy that he is 310lbs, but at 6’8 that’s not very heavy when considering weight distribution.
I share your concerns about both McGlinchey and Banks. We will have a pretty good idea of what Lynch and Shanahan think about their rehab and development after the draft. If we dont spend a 2nd or 3rd on O line , it will be a pretty clear indication that they have confidence which I guess is reassuring.
“Should the 49ers give both Nick Bosa and Deebo Samuel new contracts near the top of their position?”
Yes, the 9ers absolutely should….But that’s NOT the real question! The question is, can they AFFORD TO?
1) The 9ers are currently $5.62M over the salary cap, and the 2022 NFL Salary Cap set at $208.2M
2) Jimmy Garoppolo’s contract In 2022 is $26.95 million, a dead cap of $1.4 million and likely no trade option until after OTA’s.
3) As of now, the 9ers do NOT have the cap space to sign their draft picks. Not without extending or cutting players, possibly both. EXAMPLE: A) Extend Jimmy Ward a year, to save $6 M. B) Trading or releasing Samuel Ebukam for $6.5 million in salary-cap space.
4) All NFL teams must be under the cap before the new league year, which is March 16 this season.
NOTE: Only the Top-51 salaries count against the salary cap. Clearly JL and the 9er FO have some difficult decisions to make!
Lynch has said that both are foundational pieces and that they have budgeted to be able to sign both. I’ll assume they will sign both unless one of them has an ego that won’t allow them to sign a contract that doesn’t make them the highest paid at their position.
Felix
* “Lynch has said that both are foundational pieces and that they have budgeted to be able to sign both.”
* You’re right, Lynch did say that…BUT, that was before Deebo demanded to be the highest paid WR in the NFL!
HINT: Miami just signed Tyreek Hill to a $30 Mil. P/Y contract.
“IF” Deebo demands $30+ Mil P/Y, don’t be surprised if the 9ers trade him just before the draft.
Deebo deserves to get paid first because he has less years on his deal and Bosa has gotten paid more already.
If I had to choose between Bosa or Deebo long term I am taking Bosa even if his AP/Y is larger than Deebo’s.
Let’s not forget Bosa has been top 3 in the league in TFL. It’s not only about sacks.
Deebo Samuel: 7 drops and 4 fumbles
Hmmm……plainly put, the 9ers can’t afford to pay them both, considering Debo’s demand and the assumed market rate for #97….paying both of them is the goal, but a lofty goal to achieve…both players should get paid..that being said,I believe that draft day will tell us who will get paid….JG’s contract, and not having cap space to sign this years draft choices, puts the team in a bad spot….one of them will get moved on draft day..this team has too many holes to fill…
Lynch’s guarantee at the end of the season to sign both and that he had budgeted for them rings hollow now. It may have been a mistake to have made that tacit promise to keep both.
I would like both of them, considering their injury history, have a contract loaded with incentives. The total can be right up there at the top, but they will have to earn it, especially if they stay healthy. They both can be paid if they perform as expected.