Could the 49ers offense improve without Frank Gore?
I think so.
OK, before diving in, let’s be clear: This is not an indictment of Gore, but an indictment of the Niners’ prehistoric offensive philosophy.
We’ll get to Caveman Ball in a moment, though. First, a bit about Gore,
who broke his right hip in Monday’s 27-6 win over the Cardinals and is
reportedly lost for the season.
Gore is brilliant. A wonderful runner and pass-catcher who is smart,
selfless and tough enough to expertly do the dirty work, routinely
redirecting blitzing linebackers.
If you want to quibble you could say he’s not quite what he once was. And, based on his 2006 highlight film, I’d agree.
Still, he’s unquestionably a premier NFL back. Think league royalty such
as New England or Indianapolis couldn’t use someone like Gore?
So how, exactly, could the 49ers offense possibly improve without the services of an elite, do-it-all back?
For starters, the Niners couldn’t get much worse than they were in their
10 full games with Gore, the bell cow around whom they constructed their
blueprint for offensive success.
San Francisco wanted to establish the run. They didn’t (25th in NFL in
rushing offense). They wanted to use the run to control the clock and
turn their opponents to fourth-quarter mush. It didn’t happen (23rd in
time of possession). Finally, at the most basic level, they wanted to
score points (nope, 31st in scoring) and win games (nice try, 3-7).
The problem? Mike Singletary and Jimmy Raye announced their run-run-run
intentions before the 2009 season and, stunningly, they weren’t
bluffing. After all, why try sleight of hand with opposing defenses when
a steady diet of 46 Power Blasts could leave a much more satisfying
trail of blood and brain matter?
But NFL defenses can stop elite backs when they know what’s coming,
particularly if that elite back is running behind a not-so-elite
offensive line.
Consider this: From 2005-08, Gore had at least 10 carries in 50 games
and averaged fewer than three yards per carry in five of those games (10
percent).
Since 2009, Gore has had at least 10 carries in 24 games and averaged
fewer than three yards a carry in nine of those games (38 percent).
Those numbers suggest a trend was developing.
Now, even with advance warning, not all defenses have the ability to
shut down Gore, who had three of his four 100-yard games this season
against defenses currently ranked no better than 25th against the run.
But those defenses with the stuff to stuff Gore? Sit back and watch the 49er fail to find Plan B.
In each of its three blowout losses this season, Gore averaged fewer
than three yards a carry and the Niners were outscored 83-16. In the
other game in which Gore averaged fewer than three yards, the Eagles led
27-10 in the fourth quarter before San Francisco scored two late
touchdowns.
This brings us to the crux of the matter. Will the loss of Gore mean the
Niners will also lose some of their offensive predictability? Will
whatever they lose in the Gore/Brian Westbrook exchange be more than
offset as they swap out a bit of physicality for finesse — the real F
word in Santa Clara?
It sounds logical, but Singletary sounded emboldened after his team
rammed the ball down Scottsdale High’s throat Monday night with 261
rushing yards (most since 2006) on 47 carries (most since 2006).
Physical with an F worked against the Cardinals, but this season has
shown that here-it-comes-try-to-stop-it isn’t always effective.
Yet a possible harbinger of more-of-the-same-to-come was revealed during Singletary’s postgame press conference.
After Troy Smith threw for 356 yards against St. Louis, Singletary
praised him, but mentioned — more than once — that he had room for
improvement.
Asked for his assessment after Smith completed 48 percent of his passes
for 129 yards against Arizona, Singletary didn’t offer a discouraging
word regarding the Human Handoff Machine.
“When I look at Troy, this is
kind of like what we would like to be able to do,” he said. “It’s not necessarily
the group blueprint, but we would like to be able to run the ball more
successfully. Our offensive line, hopefully they’re continuing their
maturity and their development and we can do that. We’d like to take all
the pressure off Troy that we can and just allow him to make plays that
are there and not try to force anything.”
Say this for Singletary.
The man may be going down after this season.
But it appears that he’ll do it his way — exiting the stage, in effect, by running right down the middle.
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