Here’s what I wrote last Friday before the Niners played the Bengals: “The Bengals won’t be able to establish Cedric Benson and the running game – the Niners front seven won’t let them. Then rookie QB Andy Dalton will have to pass to win, Vic Fangio will call blitzes to pressure him, and Dalton will turn the ball over more times than Alex Smith will. Bengals lose.”
Pretty spot-on, wouldn’t you say?
I went 9-6 with the rest of the games, nothing special. So in this week’s NFL picks I’m going Niner heavy, since that’s the team I actually cover.
49ers @ Philadelphia: Philadelphia. If Frank Gore or Kendall Hunter can run the ball well against the Eagles’ 30th ranked run defense, the Niners could win. But I expect the Eagles to take the run away from SF just like every team does, by stacking eight defenders in the box against them. The Eagles will try to force Alex Smith to make plays, and they’re going to pressure him. Smith will have to complete quick passes, but his wide receivers may not get open quickly because the Eagles have elite cornerbacks. The Niners’ best matchup advantages in the pass game are their tight ends and running backs, but those players will have to help the Niners weak offensive line block. If the Bengals defense can hold the Niners offense to just 13 points, the Eagles D should be able to completely nullify them.
But could the Niners’ D shut down the Eagles offense as well? Only if they can knock out QB Michael Vick from the game. And they’ve got a puncher’s chance to do just that. The Eagles offensive line is struggling, and Ahmad Brooks has been crushing quarterbacks this season. Still, the Niners’ best shot to win is a long shot. I’m taking the Eagles to win by two scores.
Carolina @ Chicago: Chicago. Cam Newton won’t beat Chicago in Chicago this early in his career.
Buffalo @ Cincinnati: Buffalo. The Bengals are no good. They don’t even have a home field advantage – they can’t sell out their stadium. The Bills are good, and they’ll win this road game.
Tennessee @ Cleveland: Tennessee. Matt Hasselbeck is playing like a pro bowl quarterback behind Tennessee’s stellar offensive line. The Browns are nothing special.
Detroit @ Dallas: Dallas. Detroit had to struggle to beat Minnesota last week. No way will they beat Dallas in Dallas this week.
Minnesota @ Kansas City: Minnesota. Kansas City is a dreadful football team, and they could lose every game this season.
Washington @ St. Louis: Washington. Tough to pick St. Louis to win even a home game until Steven Jackson is 100 percent healthy.
New Orleans @ Jacksonville: New Orleans. This should be a blowout. The Saints are better than they’ve ever been on offense.
Pittsburgh @ Houston: Houston. Just because they’re the home team.
New York Giants @ Arizona: New York Giants. The Cardinals lost to the Seahawks last week. I don’t see them beating the Giants this week, because the Giants are good.
Atlanta @ Seattle: Atlanta. The Seahawks will not win two games in a row this season.
Denver @ Green Bay: Green Bay. The best team in the NFL at home against one of the worst teams.
New England @ Oakland: Oakland. Can the Patriots stop Darren McFadden and Denarius Moore? I don’t think so. Can the Raiders pressure Tom Brady? Absolutely. I like the Raiders to pull this upset.
Miami @ San Diego: San Diego. And I don’t like the Dolphins to pull this upset. Not happening for Miami.
New York Jets @ Baltimore: Baltimore. I picked the Ravens to go to the Super Bowl, and I still think they’re the best team in the AFC at home. They’ll beat the overrated Jets at home.
Indianapolis @ Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay. Indianapolis has a good pass rush and nothing more. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis may win a game or two for the Colts this season, but it won’t be this one.
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