I don’t know for sure, but as I analyze it, it seems the Chiefs are the team that will most likely trade for Alex Smith. Here’s why.
The Chiefs legitimately have no realistic quarterback options on their roster. Matt Cassel has exhausted his nine lives, and Brady Quinn is not the answer.
The Cardinals, the other team reportedly interested in Alex Smith, have at least three quarterbacks on their roster (Kevin Kolb, John Skelton and Ryan Lindley) who, at times, have displayed some semblance of productivity. You could call the Cards QB-needy, but they’re not desperate like the Chiefs.
Also, I sincerely doubt the 49ers would trade Smith to a rival they play twice a season. That rules out the Cardinals.
The Chiefs have the first pick in the draft, and they most likely will not take a quarterback with that pick because there is no quarterback worth that pick. The consensus No.1 QB in the draft is Geno Smith. He would not be a serious starter for the Chiefs his first year, unless the Chiefs want to go 4-12.
The Chiefs also have the first pick in the second round and almost surely will take a QB there. But they still need a starter.
Andy Reid, the Chiefs’ new head coach, drafted Nick Foles for the Eagles last season, and Reid may want Foles to be his starter this season, but the Chiefs should not overpay him. The Eagles reportedly want a second or third round pick for Foles, who has started six games in the NFL.
Although Smith’s contract is far more expensive than Foles’ rookie deal, Smith would be worth the Chiefs’ money because of his experience and maturity.
And let’s be honest, despite the valid criticisms of Smith’s calculating and conservative play, he has put up some good numbers. Reid could probably live with Smith’s results after having failed with Mike Vick, the turnover machine.
The Chiefs would be a pretty good destination for Smith. They’re probably going to draft Luke Joeckel, a stud left tackle, with the first pick in the draft. They also have an excellent running back in Jamaal Charles, and they have talent at wide receiver if they re-sign Dwayne Bowe. Their defense is not terrible, either.
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Good post Grant and other than Cleveland, I don’t see a better option for Smith either.
I think San Diego is a more likely landing spot for Smith. Rivers is scheduled to make 12 million in 2013, 13.8 in 2014 and 15.74 in 2015. SD has only 6.5 in cap room. However, they are expected to make some releases to free up another 6 million before they restructure contracts. They have whitehurst making 750k as a their backup.
They are looking to start Lane Johnson at left tackle and most likely pick up another tackle with the 11th pick in the draft. That should shore up the OL for whoever starts undercenter.
Arizona not likely an option for the reasons already mentioned. Jacksonville took themselves out of the equation. Dallas is restructuring Romo’s contract which is where I expected Smith to go.
I’d guess the four teams interested in Smith are KC, SD, Minn, and dare I say, Oak.
I see SF picking up more picks in the third round with the trade of Smith. I expect them to focus on Defense. I don’t expect them to take a receiver until the later rounds.
i sort of think SD is a legitimate darkhorse as well…..but any draft picks will probably be deferred until next year since the niners have 14 already this year
Yep, has to be KC or Cleveland in a trade. KC will definitely be better next year and Alex could be the experienced wise hand that keeps a young team together.
I hope he has a lot of success there.
I will miss Alex he has been a true 49er in every aspect he deserves a shot at being a starter I wish all 49er players had his class I wish you the best Alex a fresh start may just allow you to shine I will cheer you on unless your playing the NINERS good luck !!!!!
IMO, Smith has to be worth at least a 3rd round pick. If Foles is worth a 3rd, then AS should be worth at least that much. Anyone else on the market that has taken a team to a conference title game? Yes, defense was a large part, but Smith is the only QB in NFL history to lead TWO come-from-behind TD drives in the last 4:00 of a playoff game. Probably going to be a conditional pick based on performance in 2013. It would be nice though to have one of KC’s high picks this year.
Don’t worry,they will still have high picks next year.
Grant, excellent post. A trade with KC would be a win/win. If the 9ers receive KC’s 3rd round pick (#63) for AS, the 9ers would have 5 picks in the first 93 players taken in the draft. They should be able to draft a top DL (2), DB, WR and QB, unless they package a few picks to move up. All looking good for the 2013 draft.
Why would they watse a top pick on a qb that early.. They already have the Franchise.. It would be a wasted pick.. Especially with the lack of depth in this qb draft
Of course they don’t have to draft a QB that high. I’m just stating their needs by priority in my opinion. They can get a QB in the 4th or 5th round or ST can be the backup, but he isn’t anything similar to CK in the style of offense they run. Like most NFL teams, the 9ers have a dilemma if CK is out for an extended period of time.
With both backups slated to be FA’s, you might want to add ILB to your list of needs.
Jack, I just mentioned the top needs not all of the needs. They have 11 picks and the one they will get for AS makes 12 picks. Even after the top five picks, they should have quality ILBs to choose from with a 4th and two 5th round picks still available from their allotment.
According to Walterfootball, 49ers have met with Sio Moore and Gerald Hodges. Projected to be 2nd-4th rounders. That may suggest the 49ers are seeing ILB as a pretty important need.
Does anyone else find it interesting that the only wide receiver the 49ers have interviewed so far is Quinton Patton? He’s projected to get drafted at the beginning of the second round. Could Baalke and Morton be thinking about drafting Patton with the 31st pick?
@ Scooter:
I like that feature of Walterfootball, but always have to remind myself that there likely is a disinformation aspect to some of the meetings that NFL teams schedule.
Actually Hofer they have 13 picks, when you include the 2 expected compensatory picks.
True enough Claude. I’ll be more interested by who the 49ers bring in for visits. I think that is a better reflection of the positions they are interested in, if not necessarily the players.
Grant
I thought the Niners also interviewed Cal WR Keenan Allen. Is that not true?
His profile looks like what they have in Crabtree already, which is not what the Niners need. Patton is also inconsistent in catching punts. This would be a bigger head-scratcher than the Jenkins pick.
That is interesting Grant. I have a sneaky feeling they aren’t as focused on the D-line as many are thinking they are of should be.
Grant, I think the walterfootball site hasn’t gotten all the interviews from the combine. Keenan Allen said he interviewed with the 49ers, as did Robert Woods. I think there is a very good chance the 49ers are looking at WR in rounds 1 or 2.
I’m not surprised about Woods. When NFl Network showed Harbaugh’s response to his 40 time his eyes were lit up like a kid finding out what he got for Christmas.
Grant Cohn says:
February 25, 2013 at 4:50 pm
Does anyone else find it interesting that the only wide receiver the 49ers have interviewed so far is Quinton Patton?
————————-
Not as surprising when you consider Patton was one of the better WR’s at the senior bowl. This is from walterfootball.com “He was one of the most impressive wide outs at the Senior Bowl. Patton ran good routes, was getting separation and making difficult contested catches. He was a gamer who battled the defensive backs. ”
Plus it turns out that he wasn’t actually the only one interviewed BUT if the 49ers do indeed want another first or second round WR he’d certainly be a candidate.
Jonathan Banks who is one of the top CB prospects said that Patton was the most complete wide receiver he faced;
“I feel like (Quinton Patton) from Louisiana Tech is the best receiver I’ve played against since I’ve been here. I’ve gone against some good ones in the SEC, too, but he’s probably the most complete.”
http://www.latechsports.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/patton_quinton00.html
Always good to be drafting for depth. I’m wondering how many picks we actually use, there should be lot’s of trading around. Maybe Baalke stockpiles a few for next year.
You would think Baalke will trade-up to get as much quality as possible in order to rotate/back-up starters this season.
The NFL schedule rotation shows that the Niners play the AFC West next year and since we went to KC the last time, the Chief should be coming west. Wouldn’t it be a great time to honor Alex for his loyalty to the Niners when he’s here?
Agreed. And what better way to honor him than to have an intimate meeting in the backfield with Cowboy Aldon and PWilly
Umm No.. The fans will cheer. leave it at that. This isnt smith on his last legs in the nfl or a retirement thing. Smith will officially be the enemy.. No celebration.
Steele, according to some, Smith always was the enemy.
I thought they played the AFC South next year. I’ll have to check on that but I seem to remember that to be the case.
@ rocket:
You’re right; they do play the AFC South. I think Ray was trolling.
Maybe by next year Ray meant 2014, in which case he would be accurate.
http://www.johnnyroadtrip.com/schedules/nfl_future_nfcw.htm
They need cap relief, so Alex must go. But they are likely to honor his list of preferences. Both facts limit their leverage. Hope I am wrong, but wherever he is dealt, I would not expect much in return.
Great deal for both teams.
My guess is that the Chiefs get Smith and the Niners’ 74th pick(3rd round), 189th pick(6th round), and 221 pick(7th round) while the Niners acquire the Chiefs’ 34th pick(2nd round), 127th pick(5th round), and a conditional 6th round pick in 2014.
I was thinking that the Niners would swap second round picks with the Chiefs.
The Patriots just freed up $15 mil in cap space.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nfl/news/20130225/tom-brady-new-england-patriots-contract/?mobile=no
bummer
This sounds too fishy!!! I do not trust Patriots and how they do things over there! Why would one of the top QBs take such a huge pay cut! I can understand for him to be flexible but his contract its just too good to be true! And please don’t tell me he wants to win! How about Payton or Drew! Do you think they do not want to win a super bowl!!!
He’s done it with each contract Chicago. This move means that they could be active in FA. It has been rumored that they want WR Wallace and FS Reed.
The Patriots now have $30.5 million in cap space now.
Until the contract details are known, I wouldn’t spend too much time convincing myself that Brady took less money or otherwise sacrificed for the team.
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/02/25/less-money-for-brady-in-the-future-could-get-others-to-take-less-money-now/
I also am not certain that the Patriots bought themselves an additional $15 million in cap room for 2013.
Chicago,
It’s only the annual pay that goes down, it is offset by a large upfront bonus. Back in the early 00′s the 9ers did the same thing when they restructured Garcia and gave him a nice $25 million signing bonus.
That $30.5 million is for the 2014 and 2015 seasons, so that is my error there. They do however have $20 million in cap space for this FA period.
Midwest,
They actually have 15 mill over the two years. What they did in esscence is add 3 years to the backend of the deal so they could reduce his cap charge this year and next by giving him more money in the form of bonus’ that can be spread over the 5 years as opposed to the two years he had left before signing the extension.
My guess is that Smith doesn’t go to KC. It’s a convenient story. My guess is that he ends up in either in Cleveland or with the JETS.
Bay, not the Jets. They will draft Matt Barkley, then sign Leinert so they can complete a trifecta of USC QB’s, lol.
hehehe….
It would be a quartet if the Raiders release Carson Palmer and the Jets sign him. A four-way competition between each to see who bites and which one can appear the most in the tabloids.
It’s realistically impossible for the Jets to acquire Smith due to Sanchez’s contract Bay as he was guaranteed $28 million after he signed on the dotted line.
The Jets have no cap room to take him Bay. They are stuck with the Sanchize for at least one more year due to his contract.
I agree that the Chiefs er the most likely destination, but I don’t get howa lot of pele are saying the Nners wot trade Smith to the Cardinals. The last time teams traded a big name QB within their own division, the team sending the QB won the trade – McNabb to Washington and Bledsoe to Buffalo. If the Cardinals blew the others teams out of the water with a great offer (which they probably won’t), the Niners would send Smith there.
Quite the original line of thinking there.
” other teams have traded quarterbacks within the same division, including the Eagles in 2010 (Donovan McNabb to the Redskins) and the Patriots in 2002 (Drew Bledsoe to the Bills).”
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/02/25/little-doubt-alex-smith-gets-traded/
I agree with JedGel,
This concept that trading within the division is somehow verbotten, is silly and inaccurate to boot. Whoever makes the sweetest proposal will likely be the team that he goes to. Players jump to division rivals all the time through free agency, so cutting off your own nose to stick it to your division rival on a proposed trade isn’t in the cards.
Why Alex Smith might go to the Chiefs
Posted on February 25, 2013 by Grant Cohn
—————–
Because Nick Foles isn’t.
Grant
Please convey my regards to your dad on his article “…with his head held high” The best piece I’ve read from him in 35 years.
I don’t always agree with Lowell but he’s a great sports writer and isn’t afraid to have an opinion.
This article was right on point. On every point.
For those that haven’t read it: http://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/20130224/SPORTS/130229741/1010/SPORTS?p=all&tc=pgall
Great article. Very well said.
Good article, not a great one, but for either Cohn to write a good article is a major accomplishment.
I like your reasoning Grant! Do you think a third round pick is the best the ninners can do? If they then have 4 third round picks if they get the reported compensatory pick from last year , do they trade some picks for future years or do they draft a ton of young talent and then let some older back ups go. In this scenairo I see them signing a freeny or a drafting a young pass rusher and letting Goldson go, This I would be sad about but at the same time they will not get to keep everyone and Goldson does not have the best coverage skills, also a young safety may do ok if the pass rush picks up again. Also TE has been on my mind. I think Walker may take the most money. I do think the ninners like Celek but what is your take on the TE from Stanfor this year? The biggest complaint seems to be smaller arms but he was very productive. Would be smart for a package deal for Revis? Alot of similar moves did not pan out for the Eagles a couple years ago. Hope the ninners keep a strong chemistary through this process. Fun to read Big P’s thoughts on peoples comments on A.J. Jenkins sitting on the couch. The only person I could envision sitting on the couch in full football atire in February in the off-season is Jack “hacksaw” Reynolds! Oh, I miss #64, I am getting too old! Fun to read everybodies thoughts on this off-season.
What’s Mr. Reynolds up to, anyone know? I remember when the 49ers acquired him, from the Rams wasn’t it? I loved him too.
Rams sound right to me, He was great, suprised he did not go into coaching but he may have been to intense! He probably would have had a stroke, but could you picture , Hargaugh and Hacksaw arguing over something, You talk about fire works!!!! I hope he is still alive but have not heard anything!
Yeah, Hacksaw was an LA Ram, drafted in 1970.
49ers didn’t aquire Hacksaw from the Rams. The Rams cut him and then it was between the Bills (with his old coach Knox) and the 49ers and thankfully he chose us!!
I agree. I do not envision Mr. Goldsons’ services will be required in San Francisco any longer. Some team will give him his $8 million a year.
I think with teams going to this pistol that Goldson’s stock only rises. He isn’t great in coverage but he is exceptional in the run stop.
I think with Seattle in the division, you need to think more about coverage and relying on your linebackers to stop the run than a safety coming up.
I don’t think its a big drop of to this defense to let Goldson walk and to cut Rogers.
Jacksonville, “It’s not us”, Cleveland, “Not us”, Kansas City “crickets”….
Jacksonville can be easily ruled since it’s been reported that they won’t do anything in FA despite having so much cap space.
I wouldn’t rule Jacksonville out at all. As far as what’s been reported, don’t believe a single word of anything that’s “reported” until it actually happens.
New Jaguars GM David Caldwell said that the Jaguars won’t go after Smith and will focus on getting what they want via the draft. Plus it doesn’t fit with how his mentor Bill Poilan built the Colts.
I love the way the Niners are driving up the price for Alex, telling the media there’s more interest in him than expected.
Just to be able to unload him and actually get something of value in return is something I never really thought possible at one point in time.
I did not either! I guess Harbaugh is a true “QB” whisperer!!!
Razor – Me too…
Reminds me of a time when I tried to sell my wife’s piece of crap Ford Escort about 12 years ago, there was absolutely no interest but some clown came over and I told him I had 2 good offers for the car already. I said “you still have a shot bro” because one of them is coming from out of town tomorrow and the other was an ex-con…. I closed this dude in 20 minutes (one test spin around the block). Nearly full asking price.
Hey…I was in a jam at the time.
BTW, I’m not saying Alex is a crappy, used Ford Escort but he’s no used Mercedes either.
Ford Taurus.
Chevy Pickup.
Volvo
Who buys a Ford Escort new or used? JK lol
Crab:
Volvo hit the nail on the head !!! A very SAFE car indeed !
Hofer – Lol…….She bought it before I met her. You jokester you. :) You are right though bro.
Crab
Volvo is safe, but not efficient. How about a Ford Escape Hybrid?
Nick – Not a bad choice bro.
Sounds like you had a fun trip with the family in So Cal recently. Let me know next time you hit Legoland, D-Land or Knotts. We just took our 2 boys to Legoland in December.
Are you looking forward to the NFL draft? Go Niners!!
Crab,
Yes, we had a great time. The kids loved Legoland. Sure thing, I’ll let you know next time I’m in So Cal. I haven’t had much time to follow the combine, but I’ve been taking a peak here and there at the NFL Network and reading online. What do you think of UCLA’s RB Johnathan Franklin? He had a solid showing at the combine. Speaking of RBs, I was really disappointed at the slow time posted by Stepfan Taylor (RB Stanford).
How do you know that’s not true Bay? The QB class this year doesn’t really impress anybody.
How is spreading the news that a deal is already done and Alex is off the market going to drive up the price ? If Baalke has a deal in place and then welches when a better offer comes in,his word will never be trusted again by any GM in the League.
If he doesn’t have a deal done and it is all a lie,then again he will have the reputation for spreading lies around to stir up the trade market for his players and once again his word will never be trusted again by the other GM’s .
The report is that the Niners themselves are telling people at the combine that an Alex deal is DONE. Their front office’s reputation is on the line.
I just hope Baalke got such good value for Alex that he wanted to lock the deal in stone early before the other GM came to his senses and changed his mind.
Tim, you don’t drive up anything unless there are 2 interested parties or more – typical business practice. If teams aren’t buying, how can you drive up the price? It works well for both the 9ers and AS.
Hof:
According to the CBS Sportsd story the deal is EFFECTIVLY DONE (the word effectivly just means that the teams can’t say it is a done deal by League rule until the 12th of March,even if it IS a done deal). IF the story is correct(we don’t know that),the Niners have just told everyone that alex is off the market. (Done deal).
So,IF the story is true,there can be no more offers from anyone because Alex HAS been traded.
If the story is not true then it’s just a stupid rumor and who cares?
Tim,
I hear you, but have you found the media or their sources to always be correct? There’s a lot of mis-information out there, so to say that the 9ers aren’t playing this professionally can’t be said until the details are released.
…and since the story also says that the Niners are the ones telling everyone that a deal is effectivly done,that means that IF the story is true,that Baalke can’t welch on the deal if he wants to keep his reputation.
So,either the story is a made up rumor or Baalke’s reputation is on the line if he doesn’t follow through and make the trade official on the 12th.
I guess we will just need to all wait until the 12th to see if it was the truth or just another rumor ?
…And Hof,NO,I seldom believe much of what the “news media” reports as truth.
That is why I said several times that IF the report is true…
…a very,very wise man once said “Trust but verify” !
At this time I am being just gullible enough to trust the story is true but I won’t fully believe it is true until the 12th of March when it is verified or refuted.
TIM:
You’re overcomplicating things. The 49ers have essentially told the mystery team “If we don’t get a better offer, you have a deal. But, we reserve the right to solicit better offers.” That’s all this is.
As for “trust[ing,] but verify[ing,]” that’s amusing coming from a guy who refuses to accept evolution.
Tim/Hof – Don’t count out Buffalo, remember Alex shredded them 45-3 and threw for over 300 yds passing, with 3 TD passes.
Tim,
“Trust, but verify” didn’t come from a very, very wise man…..
Correct, Angus. It’s an old Russian proverb, which Ronald Reagan referenced when he said the line. Not sure who this “very, very wise man” is they’re talking about…
“…that’s amusing coming from a guy who refuses to accept evolution.”
That’s a scary thing on first blush but makes perfect sense in the context of irrational player hatred. Nothing more conclusive needed than the Smith hate we’ve seen from four or five people here in the last couple of years. The Alex Smith haters conveniently cherry pick stats, misrepresent time actually played, dismiss articles highlighting the facts (like Lowell’s recent commentary, dismiss the environment in San Francisco, pre-Jed York, Baalke, Harbaugh. And of course dismiss (apparently) the idea, actually in factual evidence, that a player (Smith in this case) can continually and steadily make progress. Or… evolve and adapt.
It makes perfect sense. But still amazing.
Everyone is making assumptions about the Chiefs. Don’t rule out the Jets who are looking at Matt Moore and AS!
How will they be able to afford $8.5 million when they have guaranteed to Sanchez $28 million the day signed his contract extension?
Yeah, they can’t do anything with Sanchez. They take a loss either way, I believe. And in more ways than one. The Jets are a mess. I wouldn’t wish the Jets on anyone.
Chiefs are a good spot for Alex. Cardinals might be too, if they spend some time fixing their O-line.
If we get a 3rd rounder for Alex I’m doin cartwheels. Praise Baalke…..He’s crafty!
+1
+2
Especially from KC, since that would be the very top of the 3rd round, just a few spots from the 49ers second round pick.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CKEzSJsNBp8
Great clip of a great QB riding off into the49er sunset.
Why Alex Smith might go to Kansas City:
darned good barbecue there
Yeah, man! Pretty good new football coach, too.
Ha! I agree, but the large part of my extended family that still lives near Philly WOULD NOT!!!!! LOL! They talk about Andy like we do about Singleberry! Not deserved, but that’s what it is. I see KC as a decent fit for Alex too and hope we can get maybe a 3rd and a 4th rd swap. Dreamin.
Alex is going to KC, it’s all but official. I’ve always been a big Smith fan and I’ve supported him since day 1, and I’m glad he finally found some success here. He deserves to be successful and I wish him well. I have a feeling he will be a good fit in KC and help turn them around. He still has a bright future in this league.
That being said, I’m more focused on what we’re getting in return. I’m crossing my fingers it’s the 63rd pick! How awesome would that be? Like Hofer pointed out, that would be 5 picks in the first 93. In a perfect world we would draft Matt Elam with our 1st round, then add a WR, CB, and a couple d-linemen with our next four. Everyone else after that is just gravy.
I’m not sure if KC is a good fit for Alex Smith. Andy Reid is known for his pass-happy ways. In KC under Reid, Alex Smith will not have the protection of a strong running game. He’ll also be at a major rick of injury due to a large sack total.
At the same time though, LeSean McCoy became one of the elite backs in Reid’s system Nick. And this is Jamaal Charles’ numbers in KC:
http://www.nfl.com/player/jamaalcharles/925/profile
I think Smith would continue to develop under Reid. Like Harbaugh, he knows how to bring out the best at the QB position.
Not a strong run game? Do you know who Jamal Charles is
According to haters like you Nick, the planet Mars would be the only good fit for Alex!
Wow, I knew the NFL wants to expand internationally, but who knew they were going intergalatic too…
How else do you think the Lions picked up Megatron Jack?
The final frontier Jack!
Chiefs blogs are not too happy about the potential Smith signing.
KC is football country. No Alexcuses allowed.
KC has a good team. With decent QB play, they’ve got a good shot at the playoffs.
I wouldn’t pay attention to any of those fans Bay. After all, they cheered for a QB getting injured in a game this past season.
The Chiefs probably think Bowe won’t resign unless they have a decent QB locked up. They better hope Bowe likes Alex or this could backfire on them. They may be forced to franchise tag Bowe.
There are better options in FA than Alligator Arms Bowe.
LoL MidWest and Prime. That finally explains DS9…
I dont believe it.
http://www.csnbayarea.com/blog/matt-maiocco/whispers-indianapolis
Of course not. Anything that interferes with your no market for Alex bias? Why just dismiss it as fiction, it’s the 23Welcher way.
Off topic, but this is what a Harvard education gets some people.
http://www.yardbarker.com/nfl/articles/msn/lookin_good_desmond_bryant/12989062
Now that Tom Brady is signed, the Patriots are allegedly shopping QB Ryan Mallett. Remember that guy? He was considered a 1st prospect, but off field issues lowered his stock and he dropped to the 3rd round. Anyway, with Mallett in the pool, the Alex Smith market just got somewhat smaller.
http://network.yardbarker.com/nfl/article_external/report_patriots_expected_to_entertain_offers_for_ryan_mallett/12990610
He hasn’t done anything on the field and the Patriots want a second or third round pick for him?! That is ridiculous. I don’t see this affecting the Smith market at all.
@ MidWest, Hofer:
Competition is competition. If just one of the potential Alex Smith bidders views Mallet favorably, it can affect the market for Smith. For example, a team may be more willing to give up a 3rd/4th for Mallet than a 2nd/3rd for Smith. If that team trades for Mallet, the number of teams “competing” for Smith would be reduced.
I’m not saying any of that is going to happen and I am not assigning relative value to the players. I am simply saying that as it helps the 49ers to have multiple teams interested in improving their QB situation, it doesn’t help the 49ers to have another QB on the market.
I’m not sure why they would be shopping Mallet when he was the only other QB on their roster this year. Brady is still playing great but he’s 36 and if they lose him to injury they are going nowhere without a competent backup.
Nick, “the Alex market got somewhat smaller” based on what? RMall watching a HoF QB in TB. What the hell has RM done to warrant competing with AS for a starting role from needy NFL QB hungry teams?? Your kidding right!??
*you’re*
What compensation the 49ers get for Alex probably depends on if more than one team really wants him. Also we’d probably get a better pick if it was deferred until 2014. It looks like the trade has been made with KC, but no way we can be sure. Trade would work well for the Bills too. They could release Fitzpatrick, have Alex for a guaranteed two years and draft Nassib or someone else to develop. I would be VERY disappointed if we didn’t get at least a 3rd round pick (and I think it could be a 2nd rounder, but maybe that’s wishful thinking). Geez, I remember when the 49ers traded Matt Cavanaugh, a total backup, to the Eagles for, as I recall, TWO no. 2 picks. Of course KC gave up a no. 1 pick for Joe Montana, who had only played one quarter of football in two years and was turning 37, but …. he was Joe Montana, and he did do a great job for the Chiefs.
If its KC, the second rounder would be the around the 34th pick in the entire draft. I don’t see that happening, unless the 49ers packaged some other picks along with Alex.
B2W,
I tend to lean with your scenario. The Chiefs are in need of quality as well as quantity.
The 49ers will not have 12-14 potential drqaft picks make the team. We need quality players that are found between the 1st – 3rd rds.
Packaging some picks along with Alex would put us in the 3rd rd. mix.
Good call B2W.
Good post Kezar.
You missed the biggest reason of all. This is the team where former 49er QBs go.
Montana – Bono – Grbac – and now Smith
Btw, speaking of Grbac, who’s a better QB, Smith or Grbac. I say Grbac.
You left out Steve DeBerg
lol….cant forget about him
The Electronic QB. Can’t ever forget DeBerg.
Too bad Smith can’t borrow Grbac’s arm.
There is alot of chatter about what kind of picks Alex Smith could fetch, but I’m guessing Baalke will shop Smith bundled other picks. Imagine Baalke to Andy Reid “Hey ole buddy, what would you swap for Alex + our 4th and two 5th rounder picks?”
I can also see OldCoach’s scenario take place, where the 49ers swap third and fourth round picks in the Alex trade.
In such a scenario, what would KC offer in return? Bowe + 2nd round pick?
I see the 49ers trading Alex+late picks for a higher single KC pick. The 49ers need quality over quantity, the Chiefs need both.
Honeybadger just ran an unofficial 4.43
He probably will go in the 3rd Round.
He also put up a whopping 4 reps of 225. That raises a question or two.
IMHO, off field issues and character concerns are bigger factors for Tyrann Mathieu than bench press reps or other combine stats.
Nick,
The two are not unrelated. The fact that he could put up only 4 reps suggests that his work ethic isn’t where it should be.
I agree with that Claude. I’d rather see the Niners stay away from Mathieu.
“The fact that he could put up only 4 reps suggests that his work ethic isn’t where it should be.”
Funny, but Pro Football Talk said the same thing a little over an hour ago. What is that they say about glass houses?
Anyway, I will take a guy with 4.43 regardless of bench press reps. That drill is much less important to that position. Not a whole lot of face up, pushing going on like in the box.
Matthieu will end up being this years Janoris Jenkins. Stock rising.
claude balls says:
February 26, 2013 at 6:45 am
He also put up a whopping 4 reps of 225. That raises a question or two
———————————–
The first question would be:Why does a punt returner and a nickle back need to have big muscles?
The second question would be: Why do you think a set of NFL trainers couldn’t bulk him up?
@ Jack:
Really? I’m disappointed you think I’m incapable of thinking for myself. It’s not the mere fact that Matthieu pressed so few times. It’s that he apparently hasn’t been working out very hard to prepare for the combine.
While he may very well be this year’s Janoris Jenkins, the limited evidence available thus far doesn’t support that conclusion. At this point, it’s only a hope.
With Mathieu’s lack of size it limits his role in a defense to slot CB. His lack of strength is a concern because there will be times he has to play press coverage. He also has a checkered past in regards to drug addiction. In other words, he’s not exactly a safe draft pick. If he’s still there in the 4th round, I might think about it if I were the Niners simply for his punt return ability, but no way I’m using a higher pick than that for a guy with so many red flags.
Jack,
The kid has had over half a year to train for this event. He knew exactly what NFL teams would be looking for, and did nothing to alleviate their concerns. He is a 5’9″ DB, he is supposed to run a 40 in under 4.5 seconds. The fact that he could only bench 225 four times shows that he hasn’t worked at it. Even idiots put up a decent score on the Wonderlic, because they practiced it and prepared to take it. They knew it mattered to NFL teams so they took it serious. It doesn’t matter that he won’t be bench pressing receivers in the NFL, he will stuggle at the line of scrimmage and doesn’t have the size to match up with receivers in the open field. The biggest concern is that despite having more time to prepare for the combine then any other player, he didn’t ace the test. He performed how most people expected while erasing none of the concerns about his work ethic.
From ProFootballTalk:
At 186 pounds, Mathieu is one of the smallest defensive backs at this year’s Combine, but just being small isn’t an excuse for a weak performance on the bench. Adrian Bushell of Louisville weighed in at exactly the same weight as Mathieu and did 17 reps, and Jamar Taylor of Boise State is only six pounds heavier than Mathieu and did 22 reps. Not being able to bench a lot doesn’t mean Mathieu can’t make it in the NFL. But it might mean he doesn’t have a good work ethic. And if he doesn’t work hard, he won’t make it in the NFL.
Bengals defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer said on NFL Network this morning that Mathieu’s bench press total calls into question whether he’s been working hard in the weight room.
“It does concern me, because if he was working, obviously — I can bench four times, probably,” Zimmer said.
More on Mathieu from Daniel Jeremiah at NFL.com
“Bench strength not vital for cornerbacks. There was a mini-buzz created by the media following Tyrann Mathieu’s poor performance during the bench-press test (he recorded just four reps at 225 pounds). While this is a sign that Mathieu hasn’t been logging much time in the weight room, I can’t recall a single time when a team I worked for allowed a cornerback’s poor bench performance to affect his draft grade.”
Jack,
Everybody has an opinion, even the Shreveport Times:
Sliders:
Tyrann Mathieu, LSU: The maligned cornerback had his moments Tuesday. His testing results were middle of the pack, with a 4.50 in the 40, a vertical jump of 34 inches and a broad jump of 9 feet, 9 inches. His bench-press mark of four reps was downright embarrassing. Mathieu picked up the pace during position drills, displaying an array of ball skills that are NFL-worthy. Where will Mathieu fall in the draft? Short cornerbacks (he measured under 5-9) with average athleticism and a laundry list of off the field woes rarely make it into the initial three rounds of the draft, so expect Mathieu’s name to be called on the final day.
Testing better in the bench press may actually have helped him significantly, because it would have alleviated some of the work ethic concerns. When you are that small, you need to be exceptional in other areas, and he wasn’t.
http://www.shreveporttimes.com/article/20130226/SPORTS0202/130226031/
BigP,
I would give that paper more credence if they at least got his 40 time right.
4.50 is the correct time
http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/tyrann-mathieu?id=2540180
Jack,
His official 40 yard time was 4.5 seconds, it was reported earlier in the day. He is worth a gamble in the late third to fourth round, but I wouldn’t touch him any earlier than that.
Thank you both for the correction. I thought I saw a 4.43 for him earlier in the day.
I’ve read a few reports suggesting Mathieu did well in the interview component of the combine. If he can convince the 49ers he is a reformed man, then a late round flyer is worth the risk. But he is only an average athlete with a very checkered past – I simply can’t justify a high or mid round pick for him.
Scooter,
Do you see it as a situation where he was overhyped by CBS since they carried so much LSU, and then took on a life of it’s own with the whole “honeybadger” stuff?
Jack, I think he had a tremendous season in 2011 playing in a very good LSU defense. Making lots of ‘splash’ plays in the SEC will always generate lots of national attention. I’m not taking anything away from him – he played well.
But I do think the quality of players around him allowed him to be in position to make plays too. I don’t think he is the transcendant talent some have made him out to be. He’s got good football instincts but he is unlikely to ever be more than a nickel CB in the NFL.
If it wasn’t for the red flags, on physical talent he shouldn’t be any higher than a 3rd rounder in my opinion anyway. But he does have red flags. Big ones.
49er personnel talking with the Honeybadger after the backtrack, flip hips, run and track the ball drill. Looked like he was giving him some encouraging words.
I agree with Officer Hammer. I would take him just to be my return guy alone. You hope he can come in and mature into the huge responsibility that comes with being that slot corner.
The ESPN guys raised two points:
1/No, you don’t have to be hugely strong in chest & arms to play CB
2/With everything on the line and trying to dig out from under a clouded reputation and 3 months to prepare for the Combine, he puts up 4 reps? Really? He’s so dedicated that he can’t work out in preparation? I’m a short, stout 63 year old with arthritis and diabetes and I did two reps at 225lbs yesterday in the gym, just to see what I could do. I haven’t pushed a barbell in years. With a month’s training I could beat 4 reps!
How dedicated is he? JaMarcus Russell (I lost 8 pounds!!) dedicated? LOL. Warning bells, but I’ll trust FO & coaches.
(At this point in my life I subscribe to the Fred Dean Workout Ethos. To paraphrase Fred; “Sometimes I feel like pushing weights, but if I lie down for a while the feeling will pass!”)
How many reps did Matthieu do of 225 while at LSU?
It doesn’t matter, he isn’t and hasn’t been at LSU for some time now. He has had all that time to work on something that he knew would be a question mark and he didn’t. It’s kind of how nobody runs 40 yard dashes out of a sprinters stance while wearing underwear in the NFL, yet it is still relevant in the evaluation process. Guys improve their times significantly by training specifically for that event because they know it is important to their future employers. NFL teams value that work ethic, regardless of how it actually translates to the playing field.
Sounds like Matthieu was too busy doing reps of 420 to be bothered with 225.
MsClemons,
Exactly.
It’s so ridiculous to think that we would not trade him to the Cardinals because they’re in the same Division. If they offer us the best package in return, it would be dumb not to do it just because we would “play him twice a year.” SO WHAT?
He’s not Tom Brady for crying out loud.
Be real.
If KC gives us a 4th Round pick for him, and AZ offers a 3rd Rounder, what do you think we would do? Seriously. THINK for a minute.
+1. Even if KC and Arizona made equivalent offers, I’d trade him to Arizona. That would nearly guarantee 2 wins every year.
[Sigh.] Haters gonna hate. Ignorant haters gonna hate ignorantly.
Come on Claude, that was my attempt at humor. Gauranteed wins are rare in the NFL. Nonetheless, Alexito made a valid point – take the best offer.
Nick:
Fair enough.
While I tend to agree that the team should take the best offer, I also think it should take into account the effect of handing its playbook over to a division rival when comparing offers.
I would point out that the division opponents already know alot of the playbook. It’s going to evolve this year anyways with Kaepurnicus in possession of the keys.
@ Razoreater:
I would think so. Look, no one is in a better position to evaluate the downside of trading Smith to Arizona that Baalke and Harbaugh. I am very comfortable with them making the decision.
It doesn’t matter if he gets traded to Arizona. He has never been a threat for us. He will never be a threat to us. I can’t wait until everyone is able to see how ineffective he will be without JH holding his hand and having him throw underneath all game. He will have to stretch the field with his throws, no matter where he goes. We will again find out out ineffective he is throwing downfield.
I personally believe this trade talk is hot air. JH and TB have laid a trap for a trade. Let see if it works.
I’m not sure where Alex is going to end up, but I wouldn’t want him to be in AZ because it is a division rival. The difference between winning and losing is so small. We have no idea what motivation Alex can have. For everyone that says, “oh, he’s not a threat, are just flat out haters on the guy.” If he passes for 70%, dinks and dunks his way to victory, guess what’s that’s a L in the Niner column. It’s not about how great he is, but whether he improves the AZ team, and since they have a QB situation that’s a mess, why would we want to improve them as a team at a key position?
Alex doesn’t scare me, but having him throw to Larry Fitzgerald does. Larry Fitz has the skills to take a 7 yard slant into a 70 yd YAC TD.
Send him to KC where everyone is happy. He plays for Andy Reid, they rebuild, he gets a new start. And we all get to move on.
If you go to other blogs, there are plenty of Smith fans who still don’t like the switch because of bad karma or what not.
Well said Fan!
That’s right PT!!!
Grant’s original guy Amerson, laid down a 4.38….so much for being too tall.
Makes you wonder how he got burned on so many plays this year?
http://ninerchatter.blogspot.com/2013/02/49ers-2013-offseason-projections-defense.html
Thanks Jack.
Would you be in favor of Baalke packaging picks and moving up in an attempt to snare one of the premier DL (Floyd, Richardson)? I suspect they both have cemented a place in the top 10, but if there was a collective brain fart among the teams drafting early and one of them slipped out of the top 10 … ?
The only possible safety draftee you mention is Rambo. What are your thoughts on Eric Reid, Philip Thomas, and Jonathan Cyprien?
I’ve seen people mock Floyd to the Raiders at No.3.
@ Grant:
I know. It’s the ultimate in wishful thinking to think he will drop to a place that the 49ers could trade up to.
@ Jack
Here are some insightful comments. Well, OK, more like caffeine-driven blather:
I’m conflicted on NT. The Niners love to have that wide body to keep blockers off their LBs and to stop the run, but a 1st rounder at NG seems a bit extravagant. A guy like Hankins can do more stuff than say, Jenkins.
Harralson sets the edge well, I think they’ll let him compete.
How many changes does the team want to make in the Secondary? Loss of continuity, familiarity and signal calling/adjustments can hurt efficiency. Matt Maiocco’s take seems to be they keep Rogers and let DG go. Whitner he didn’t address.
Claude,
Cyprien doesn’t fit Baalke’s big school/strong competition background, and I am going with Rambo because he is projected as a 3rd/4th round guy and that is the area I see them addressing that position.
Brotha,
Agree with you on the NT, but both Hankins and Jenkins are rated as potential NT/DE guys.
I also agree with you that Haralson could have a big role, but the salary may be the issue here more than his ability.
Doesn’t surprise me that Maiocco doesn’t mention Whitner, he isn’t going anywhere. I wouldn’t be too worried about adding or shuffling new pieces to the secondary. There are a lot of practices to work on communication before a game is played.
@ Claude
Only questioning for the point of discussion:
“….Baalke’s big school/strong competition background…”
I do see patterns in Trent’s picks, but not sure about that one:
Anthony Davis Rutgers
Mike Iupati Idaho
CK Nevada
Kilgore Appalachian State
Bruce Miller Central Fla.
D. Walker Central Mich
Joe Staley Central Mich
Staley and Walker might not be Trent’s picks, can’t remember.
@ Brotha:
I think you meant to direct that comment at Jack.
Right you are, Claude. Apologies.
I consider Nevada and Rutgers big schools given their level of competition and consistent bowl appearances.
@ Jack
Well, OK, certainly their schedules are B—-! : >)
Nice job Jack.
I definitely think they will be looking at the 5 technique player in the first 3 rounds and agree that NT will not be an early pick as the NT hasn’t been a big part of this defense for the most part.
I would guess at this point that they Keep Haralson due to his experience and his ability to let them rest ASmith and let him focus more on the pass rush. I think they could look at drafting somebody as well to possibly develop behind Brooks.
Inside LB is definitely going to be a need as like you pointed out, both backups are FA’s. This is where the extra picks really come into play as they can take ST guys who can develop into backups at the ILB position.
The secondary is where I start to wonder exactly how much turnover there will be. Rumors were that the Niners were talking to the agents of a bunch of FA CB’s and telling them they would have money after dealing Alex Smith. Just rumors but who knows. I also have to think that they are looking at the Safeties and wondering just how valuable they are in spite of the Probowl spots. Whitner is good in the box run stuffing Safety, problem is the Niners are playing Cover two with the Safeties playing deep most of the time and he is not a good fit for that. Ideally they could sign Goldson, move him to SS and draft a FS or move Culliver as you mentioned. I don’t get the feeling they are going to resign Goldson though or even put the tag on him again. They may just let him test the market and see if he is worth as much as he thinks he is.
With all the picks they have I’m guessing they devote a few to the defense both for depth and possible starters at Safety. The wild card is if the lose Walker, do they look at Ertz with the first pick if he’s there? It could be the Fleener infatuation all over again.
@ Claude
IMO Richardson is more of a 4-3 guy; think Sapp. Another Safety is Elam.
Dreamcrusher.
I would only show interest in T.Mathieu in the 6-7 rds.
Could be the steal of the draft, or could be a complete flame-out.
But at rd. 6-7 I would take a flier on him.
He’ll go in the 3rd. I would be confident looking Jed York in the eye taking him in the 4th Round.
Safety Shamarko Thomas just ran a 4.38. He also repped 225 29 times and had the highest vertical jump of all the safeties. 49ers met with him a few days ago. Could he be a possible replacement for Goldson?
Thomas is 5-9, 213 pounds. He went to Syracuse and he was projected as a sixth round pick before the Combine.
Sounds strong and tough and probably a good tackler; love the speed. Can he go up with Julio Jones and Fitz and all?
Explosive leaper and he’s the same size as Earl Thomas. It seems to me in today’s NFL, it’s more important to have a tall SS than a tall FS. You need a tall SS to cover today’s tight ends.
NFLDraftScout.com lists Thomas as a SS.
I see that. He played in the box at Syracuse. I don’t think a 5-9 SS has a future in today’s NFL, but I could be wrong. I think you need a 6-2 or 6-3 SS to cover tight ends. I think Thomas has the speed and explosiveness to transition to FS.
5’9″ doesn’t cut it. We need to emulate the Seahawks on the defensive side of the ball. Their DB’s average height is 6′ 1″. We have to think about the big picture. Getting to the playoffs is now an expectation.
Most of the teams in the playoffs will have either a mobile QB and or a tall tight end and tall receivers. These little smurf DB’s can’t successfully make up for the lack of size.
The only time I see a fit for a smaller DB is if he is nickle package personnel guarding the slot guy.
Seattle’s FS Earl Thomas is 5-10. Bob Sanders was 5-8.
This is the guy that knocks himself out right? Being able to stay healthy might be a concern on this guy.
That’s right. He almost knocked himself out at the Combine, too. He tripped and fell on his face at the finish line of the 40-yard dash. He still clocked a 4.38.
Sanders and Ronnie Lott too sometimes k.o.’d themselves delivering ‘Woooo! Hits’.
Grant,
I’m sure you will agree that Sanders and Thomas are exceptions to the rule. Sanders was great when healthy, but he missed 78 of 128 career games because of injury. He was not durable at all. There is a reason teams like big, durable players.
S. Thomas is 13 pounds bigger than Goldson.
Grant,
I was replying to your post: “Seattle’s FS Earl Thomas is 5-10. Bob Sanders was 5-8.”
5’9″, 230, 4.38… Convert Shamarko to running back? (half joking)
And then Kenny Vaccaro just ran a 4.59. Don’t expect the 49ers to draft him in the first round.
@ Grant:
Why not?
Yeah I have to ask the same question. Not a great time but Vaccaro is the best FS prospect in the draft and would seem to be a strong option if he were to fall that far which I doubt.
NFL Draft Scout’s Dane Brugler mocked Texas A&M CB Jonathan Banks to the 49ers at No.31. I disagree with Brugler. Banks got torched by LA Tech’s Quinton Patton in the Independence Bowl, and the 49ers have already met with Patton. If both players were on the board at No.31, I think the 49ers would take Patton over Banks.
T o o s l o w………………….
Boise St. CB Jamar Taylor just ran a 4.37. Isn’t he Jack Hammer’s guy?
How about you put up an NFL Combine page? Your WR one the other day is a good model. Just do it like you do your game logs. Add stuff to the content and the comments sections.
When are you putting out an 11-15 pick Mock Draft, including expected trades and significant moves, including re-signings, including FA acquisitions?
Sure is.
Taylor probably will get drafted top 50 now, don’t you think?
Grant,
When will the news break that the 49ers are “leaning towards” keeping Alex Smith in 2013. (hoping to drive the price up)
Trufant riding with the wind. If the 49ers take a conerback, I hope it’s him.
What CB fool? What are you smoking?
Ya just figured this out? Shazzam!
“Its sad the 9er’s and their fans stinks. And their overrated Qb kap choked i 5 minutes to go had 4 downs can’t even convert? lol !
Is anyone else disgusted with the way ESPN keeps pushing the Kaepernick birth mother story?
What ever happened to Froman? He would be a great backup to Kapernick. Same style of play and he was faster than Kap in almost all of the combine drills. Bet he’d be cheap to. Just sayin’