As you may remember, Football Outsiders correctly predicted a 6-10 record for the 49ers in 2010.
After the week 1 win this year against the Seahawks, they gave the Niners a 55.6 percent chance to make the playoffs. Now, after the Niners’ 3-1 start to 2011, Football Outsiders gives them an 89.1 percent chance to make the postseason. The only team in the NFL they give better odds to make the postseason is the Green Bay Packers (92.8%).
The team with the third highest odds is the Detroit Lions (84%). And the Tampa Bay Bucs have a 42 percent chance to make the playoffs, apparently. The St. Louis Rams were most experts’ preseason pick to win the NFC West, but Football Outsiders now gives them a 0.8 percent chance to make the playoffs after starting the season 0-4.
Football Outsiders also gives the Niners a 5.1 percent chance to win the Super Bowl – the ninth best odds of all the teams in the NFL, and better odds than the Steelers, the Jets, the Falcons, the Cowboys, the Bucs, and the Eagles.