In this week’s mailbag, we take a look back at the 49ers 20-17 loss to Los Angeles in the NFC Championship Game before taking a look at what changes this offseason might bring.
Phuong Nhuyen, @thay_phoung – Los Angeles relied on the same quick passing attack and ball control that Green Bay did. Could the 49ers have done anything better or is 20 points a defensive victory?
One of the biggest issues faced by San Francisco on Sunday was the inability to get off the field on third down. The 49ers defense allowed Los Angeles to convert on 11 of 18 third down attempts, six of which with six or more yards to go.
While these conversions did not always lead to points, they allowed Los Angeles to control the flow of the game and helped limit the 49ers to only 50 offensive plays.
Cody Hill, @ccodyhill – 49ers didn’t gain ONE yard in the last 12 minutes. Did Los Angeles change anything on defense? How were they that successful?
The Rams defense dominated the line of scrimmage throughout the game and their safeties, Eric Weddle in particular, did a fantastic job of helping in run support.
Weddle beat the block of Trent Sherfield to drop Elijah Mitchell for a loss of one on second and one, and Rams defensive tackle Greg Gaines beat Daniel Brunskill on the next play to drop Kyle Juszczyk for no gain.
The Rams defensive line continued to dominate on the next possession, Aaron Donald beat Laken Tomlinson to get a hit on Jimmy Garoppolo as he tried to throw to George Kittle.
The next play though was all on Garoppolo. On second and 15, Garoppolo had three receivers open while he was still in the pocket, George Kittle on an out to his left, Brandon Aiyuk on an in cut down the middle, and Deebo Samuel running a route out of the backfield. Instead of throwing the ball, Garoppolo bailed out to his right and was nearly intercepted by Jalen Ramsey.
Darrel Q, @DarrellQuock – 2nd and 1, 3rd and 2, Trey would have gotten the first down. Agree or disagree?
Disagree. That thought process is understandable, however the evidence does not back it up if we go back and look at how Lance performed in short yardage situations.
The 49ers were 3-11 on third down and 1-5 on fourth down with Lance at quarterback against Arizona. They followed that up by going 5-15 on third down and 0-1 on fourth down in Lance’s next start against Houston.
This is a part of Lance’s game that will be worth keeping an eye on in 2022.
El Jugo, @HomieChenco – Who are some “must re-sign” players?
Looking at the 49ers’ list of unrestricted free agents, the top priorities should be D.J. Jones, Laken Tomlinson, Jaquiski Tartt, Arden Key and Jordan Willis.
Jones was a stalwart along the 49ers defensive line in 2021, finishing sixth with 56 tackles and second in tackles for loss with 10. Key and Willis were key depth pieces along San Francisco’s defensive line this season.
Tomlinson has led the 49ers offense in snaps played each of the last three seasons providing stability along the offensive line. San Francisco drafted to offensive linemen last year, guard Aaron Banks and Jaylon Moore who can play either guard or tackle. This may result in moving on from Tomlinson despite his ability to be on the field consistently.
The 49ers secondary is better with Tartt on the field, however that’s the big question surrounding the free safety. Tartt’s injury history is reminiscent of Jimmy Garoppolo, making him a bit of a risk to sign long term. San Francisco may see Talanoa Hufanga as the long-term replacement.
Mike, @friscokid808 – What is the position of priority in free agency and the draft? What SHOULD the 49ers address?
The priority for the 49ers this offseason should be:
- True number one corner if available in free agency. Likely won’t find that through the draft with their current positioning.
- Interior pass rusher if they are unable to re-sign D.J. Jones or Arden Key
- Slot corner to compete with Deommodore Lenoir
- Safety with cover skills. Hufanga is more of a box player.
- Center to develop for 2023.
- Linebacker for depth.
- Edge rusher. Can’t have enough pass rushers.
- Veteran backup quarterback
- Tight end. Ross Dwelley is a free agent and this team could use a good second tight end.Josh
Josh Knudsen, @jck510 – Who is the ideal candidate to back up Trey Lance in 2022?
There are a couple of names that immediately jump to mind to backup Lance, Marcus Mariota and Teddy Bridgewater. Both Mariota and Bridgewater know what it takes to play quarterback at a high level in the NFL. In fact, the 49ers inquired about trading with Carolina for Bridgewater last offseason.
Also keep an eye on Andy Dalton and Joe Flacco. San Francisco expressed interest in both as free agent’s last season.
Rich Bonsall, @RichBonsall – Does Jimmy Garoppolo get cut or traded?
The 49ers are not going to simply release Garoppolo. There will be a trade market for Garoppolo, especially after watching the quarterback prospects for this draft class.
My best guess is San Francisco receives a 2022 third round pick and a conditional second round pick in 2023 similar to what Philadelphia received when they traded Carson Wentz to Indianapolis last offseason.
Why is it that Steph Curry (the best long range shooter EVER) has a BAD night shooting? Is it because Steph missed a lot of uncontested open shots, and had an off night? Is it because the defender was in Steph’s face blocking his shot, stealing the ball, knocking the ball away, and bothering his shot? Let’s use this Steph Curry example to analyze the 49ers vs. Rams playoff game. Was it the 49ers offense that was off? Was it the Rams defense up for the challenge? Conversely, was the Rams offense good? Was the 49ers defense bad? Which team made the best “Next game adjustments or In game adjustments” to win the game?
Let’s give credit to the person or team who deserves it, and place blame where it belongs. A true team, in harmony, will have each others back. For example, I got your back and you got my back. Do you recall watching a segment on Richard Sherman on a 49ers show prior to the 2019 season?CB Sherman led the same chants repeatedly, “Who’s got your back?,” and the group of other rookies and young DBs responded simultaneously, “We got your back!” One more time, “Who’s got your back? We got your back!” Similarly, a good head coach won’t publicly place blame on their staff or players, and players, in return, won’t place blame on other players or coaches. In other words, no one on the team should point fingers because that is not good for team harmony. Like a captain of the ship, he goes down with the ship. A good head coach won’t say we threw too many interceptions, we over threw too many open receivers, the RB should have hit the hole faster, player “A” should have stayed in bounds to keep the clock running, player “B” should have went out of bounds to stop the clock, the DB dropped a sure interception that would have iced the game, if we only recovered that fumble, etc … All these responses are assigning blame without saying their name. A good head coach won’t assign blame, especially to the press. A good coach will speak to the press in generalities. How many times have we seen Bill Belichek speak in his monotone voice? He’ll answer with little or no information. If you’re old enough to have witnessed a Bill Walsh post game press conference, he’ll say we’ll take a look at the play, analyze it, and get the player’s view point. Those coaches are masters of giving information without placing blame. Let the coaches analyze, instruct, and advise in the classroom, film room, or on the practice field.
Sometimes the organization or anonymous source (management or coach) leak out information to the press behind the scenes about who they like and who they don’t like. Sometimes they’ll spell it out, and it becomes known as the writing on the wall. It’s ok that the local press, fans, rival fans, and national sports personalities can rightfully criticize players and coaches for their performance in public. Even if you haven’t played the game EVER, it’s ok to be critical. It’s just an opinion and it’s called the First Amendment, Jeff.
The LA Rams coaching staff (except for HC McVay) deserves credit for making “next game” adjustments, and also the “halftime” adjustments needed to win. First, HC McVay made two dumbfounded challenges which resulted in losing two timeouts. Luckily for him, the Rams won the game as Stafford made the necessary passes to his difference makers, Cooper Kupp and OBJ. Had the Rams lost, McVay would have been heavily criticized for those two challenges. Secondly and more importantly, the Rams D-Coordinator, Raheem Morris, stopped the run with seven or eight in the box. Next Gen Stats indicated the Rams ran 63% of their defensive plays with a “single high safety” and 49% with a loaded box (defenders > blockers) which means they employed the Bears 46 defense with eight in box (front 7 and SS) throughout the game. In the 49ers post game press conference, George Kittle revealed that the Rams defense loaded the box and blitzed the gaps. The Rams coaches boasted about it after the game.
The way the 49ers opened the game was pretty much what they did the entire year. First down run, second down run, third down pass, and fourth down punt. The Rams made the necessary “next game adjustments” to stop the run. The stats reveal that the 49ers only had 50 yards rushing on 20 carries for the entire game. In nine 49ers possessions, they punted five times. Their first two possessions of the first half resulted in 49ers punts. Was the Rams defense up for the challenge? The answer is YES!
The third and fourth possessions of the 49ers resulted in two scoring drives (TD and FG). Jimmy G was down 7-0, and he ended the first half with a 10-7 lead. In those two scoring drives, he passed the ball more than the 49ers had run plays. In the second half, the 49ers punted three times, but Jimmy G led the third scoring on a 10 play drive ending with a TD to George Kittle. This drive consisted of 5 pass plays and 5 run plays. Was the 49ers offense off? The answer is NO.
Some people might say yes the 49ers offense was off because it’s Jimmy G. The fact is the 49ers were leading 17-7. Jimmy G threw for two TDs and had a 10 point lead in the fourth quarter.
This reminds me of 92 Braves beating the Pirates in Game 7 of the NLCS. The Pirates offense did their job and they had a 2-0 lead going into the bottom of the ninth inning. It was starting pitcher, Doug Drabek, who loaded the bases in the ninth, and it was Stan Belinda who gave up the winning hit. According to the rules of baseball, Drabek was given the loss. Bonds is an outfielder and not a pitcher. However, the press assigns blame to Bonds for not throwing out Sid Breams at the plate. Based on baseball analytics, a runner on second scores 97% of the time on a base hit. The press likes to cause controversy and places blame where it doesn’t belong. It’s no wonder why Bonds doesn’t like the press. Similarly, Jimmy G is a QB and doesn’t play defense.
In the previous playoff game against the Packers, they bracketed Davante Adams after their opening TD drive. The 49ers took away Davante Adams from Aaron Rodgers for the remainder of the game. In this playoff game against the Rams, they did NOT take away Cooper Kupp as he had 11 catches for142 yds, and two TDs. In the week 18 game, Cooper Kupp was also the leading receiver with 7 catches for 118 yds, and one TD. The 49ers coaches failed to make the “next game adjustments” to take away Stafford’s best receiver and favorite target. In addition, the 49ers were outscored in the second half in seven games from the regular season. In three playoff games, the 49ers were outscored twice in the second half. The 49ers were outscored by the Cowboys because Dak Prescott ran a QB sneak without any timeouts and time ran out. This time the Rams outscored the 49ers in the second half 13-7. Was it the Rams offense good? The answer is YES. Look at Cooper Kupp, OBJ, and Matt Stafford’s stats.
Was the 49ers defense bad? Yes and No. The 49ers usually do a great job on defense in the first half of games. The 49ers were outscored in the second half of games nine times including the playoffs. Either they were tired at the end of games, players were out of position, maybe it was a bad defensive strategy, one or two bad defensive play calls, players blowing assignments, or just having lousy defensive players. Who knows? Only those who have access to the game films actually know.
On a side note, Do you recall a 49ers show or sports personality in which they pointed out a silly stat that when Deebo Samuels carries the ball seven or more times, the 49ers win. In this important playoff game, Deebo carried the ball 7 times for 26 yds and no TDs, and the 49ers lost. Therefore, this theory is TRASH. In my opinion, the Rams won the game for two reasons: (1) The Rams defense stopped the 49ers run offense; and (2) The 49ers defense could not stop the Stafford to Kupp connection because they accounted for two TDs.
What?
Trade the whole draft and Jimmy to move up and select Drake London.