How the 49ers will win on Monday night

I’m sure you’ve heard the quote, “there are three types of lies — lies, damn lies, and statistics,” at some point.

For years stats have been used to start and end sports arguments. Here is a new one for you, there is not a better predictor of wins and losses for the 49ers than this stat: turnover margin.

Since the start of last season, the 49ers are 1-7 when they turn the ball over more than their opponents. When the turnover margin is tied or favors San Francisco they are 12-3.

San Francisco has lost the turnover battle in two of its first three games to start 2022.

While ball security is always important, it takes on added significance against the Rams.

In their three matchups with Los Angles last season, San Francisco won the turnover battle once and tied in the other two.

Looking back on those games it is easy to see the influence of turnovers on the outcome.

In the 49ers 31-10 blowout of the Rams at Levi’s Stadium they forced a pair of Matthew Stafford interceptions and did not commit a single turnover of their own.

During the 2021 regular season finale and NFC Championship game the teams tied in turnover margin. They split those two games, each winning by a three-point margin.

Jimmy Garoppolo has made 46 starts for the 49ers. The veteran quarterback has turned the ball over 48 times, 39 interceptions and nine lost fumbles, in those starts. Against Los Angeles last season, Garoppolo threw three interceptions.

Garoppolo isn’t the only 49er who has been unable to hold on to the football. San Francisco’s offense has recorded at least one fumble in each game this season.

The addition of Matthew Stafford was a major factor in helping Los Angeles win the Super Bowl last season.

Despite his high level of play, Stafford will give opposing defenses opportunities to take the ball away.  San Francico fans saw this firsthand as Stafford threw a pair of interceptions in both regular season games against the 49ers last year and added another in the NFC Championship game.

On Monday night the 49ers need to take advantage of the opportunities Matthew Stafford will present them. If they do and hold on to the ball themselves they will come leave with the victory.

This article has 16 Comments

  1. Jack, your writing has been improving greatly over time. But now you are pulling a CohnClickCue.
    You state a maxim without fleshing it out.
    There is a big difference between “How the 49ers will win on Monday night” and
    How the 49ers CAN win on Monday night

  2. It’s the hope every game that we win the turnover battle. Hopefully they will on Monday. Teams are so competitive, that turnovers can decide most games.

  3. The story of this game is going to be our defensive line vs there offensive line. Predicting a big game from Kinlaw! Feeling a Fred Warner forced fumble.

    For Jimmy I am expecting another rusty game but enough to W.
    -16/26 for 207 yards, 1TD, 1INT

      1. I knew about AA obviously, Kinlaw I didn’t hear about injury until yesterday.

        Still saw Kinlaw has a big game. Rams are weak up front,

        1. GOOD NEWS
          Both Javon Kinlaw (knee) and Arik Armstead (foot) returned to practice on Saturday. If both play on Monday night, the 49ers will have a full arsenal of pass rushers to deploy against what could be a shaky Los Angeles offensive line.

  4. I’m sure you’ve heard the quote, “there are three types of lies — lies, damn lies, and statistics,” at some point.

    At no point have I ever heard this quote but there is some truth to it. Stats and data can be manipulated to paint a picture which isn’t completely accurate. Moreover critical pieces of data are often left out which is commonly referred to as a lie by omission .

    Anyway I expect the Niners to beat the Lambs. Stafford is not a mobile QB which has always been our Kryptonite. Furthermore the Rams are not a great team this year. They got destroyed by the Bills, barely beat the Falcons and beat a Cards 20-10 team which has significant injuries. If we can score 20+ we will definitely win.

  5. Jack
    * I look for the Rams to stack the box, try to take away the run and force JG to throw the ball for 1st downs!
    If the Rams stack the box, the 9er O-Line can’t open running lanes for the RB’s and LA forces JG to throw the ball, (int’s), the Rams win….. If the 9er run the ball and pick up 1st downs, especially in the 4th qtr, then I agree with you. The outcome of the game will be determined by turn overs.
    * NOTE: Three things to watch for:
    1) How well TW’s replacement, McKivitz, protects JG.
    2) Can the Rams LB’s, especially Wagner, control the 9ers run game.
    3) Will the Rams Safeties play away from the sidelines, toward the middle of the field, and try to force JG to throw to the sidelines on 3rd downs?
    * GOOD TO SEE MR TURNER IS BACK! It should help the 9ers run game!

  6. I will predict nothing with this team yet, until they show their true identity. I ha w no clue on who this team is. And I don’t think they do either.

  7. If the Rams can stop our running game, it’s going to be tough. Jimmy needs to be much sharper and smarter on his passing.
    Sharper: Can’t miss open WRs.
    Smarter: Scan the field for secondary WRs.

    Shanahan needs to utilize all his offensive weapons.
    Utilize: I have been saying for years that Juszczek is a good receiver out of the backfield. The sideline catch he made last week was excellent. Heck, he was a TE in college!

    Utilize : Jennings is very good mid-field WR that can be a nice weapon in the intermediate pass game.

    Also, I believe that Kittle will likely spend more time as a blocker due to the absence of TW. This is why imho, Shanahan needs to utilize Juszczek’s receiving skills.

  8. If the 49ers are without both Kinlaw and Armstead or if either or both of them are ineffective because of injury lay the house on the Rams getting points. Then root against your money. You are a winner either way.

    * Both Javon Kinlaw (knee) and Arik Armstead (foot) returned to practice on Saturday. If both play on Monday night, the 49ers will have a full arsenal of pass rushers to deploy against what could be a shaky Los Angeles offensive line.

    * Now, if the O-Line can protect JG, open lanes for the RB’s and the offense can score some POINTS……We’ll beat the Lams AGAIN and take over the lead in the NFC West Division!

    1. GEEP,
      That is good news. Hope that they can play at full capacity. I’ve been waiting for Kinlaw to have a breakout game and this (Monday) would be a good place to start.
      For the Rams, Kupp is the real deal. But if Stafford has defenders in his face it will make it difficult to get the ball to him. Armstead’ height could help obscure Stafford’ line of view with throws over the middle. This game will be won by the defense.

      Also, with a couple of weeks of full practices, Jimmy G might be ready to look sharper. Anything better than last week would be a positive.

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