From the moment Trey Lance was taken third overall in the 2021 NFL Draft, he has been at the center of nearly every discussion about the San Francisco 49ers.
Lance going down to injury early in week two followed by Brock Purdy’s emergence late in the season led to many debates. The signing of Sam Darnold and subsequent suggestions of a possible Trey Lance trade has taken the discourse about the quarterback position among the Faithful to Defcon 1 levels this offseason.
On Wednesday, ESPN NFL insider Adam Schefter joined the Pat McAfee Show. During the discussion, Schefter was asked about the 49ers quarterback situation.
“Brock Purdy is the one, if healthy,” responded Schefter. “And I think going into camp, Sam Darnold, I think, has the edge going into camp. But, by the way, Trey Lance could play great. He worked over the summer with [Chiefs QB Patrick] Mahomes, and I heard he’s made tremendous improvement. I’m anxious to see how much he’s improved and whether he can make that jump. Let’s see it.”
As Schefter points out, Lance could make a major jump this season. Here are the three areas Lance needs to clean up for that to happen.
Throwing mechanics
Lance spent the time before the 49ers offseason program working on improving his mechanics with quarterback coach Jeff Christensen and Patrick Mahomes. One area of focus in those workouts was to create a better base for Lance, something Kyle Shanahan sees as key for quarterbacks.
“It means playing with your feet wider apart, always be in position to throw,” Lance told reporters during OTA practices in May. “When you’re a quarterback your feet aren’t together.”
Another area of focus was getting Lance to a point where he was drawing more power from his lower half. By doing this Lance is not putting as much strain on his throwing arm.
The work has paid off. Lance has not felt the type of soreness and fatigue in his throwing arm as he did during his first two NFL seasons.
The work Lance has put in so far this offseason is a big positive. He now has a little over a month to get everything dialed in and ready for training camp in late July.
Downfield accuracy
There has been a lot of talk this offseason about the need for quarterbacks to throw downfield. This is an area in which Lance needs to make a jump this year if he has any chance of taking the starting job away from Brock Purdy.
Lance has completed 70 percent of his throws under ten yards from the line of scrimmage. That number drops to just 51 percent for throws beyond ten yards. In comparison, Purdy completed just under 66 percent of his throws beyond ten yards during his rookie campaign.
Consistency
The inconsistency from Lance shows up in the lack of efficiency from the 49ers offense, particularly their inability to stay on the field. This in part comes down to Lance’s inaccuracy.
With the way the NFL game is today, a quarterback completing less than 60 percent of their pass attempts is unacceptable. For example, of the NFL quarterbacks who dropped back to pass at least 100 times last season 40 finished with a completion percentage of at least 60.
Lance has dropped back to pass 124 times in his career, his completion percentage is just 54.9 percent.
To put that number into perspective, only Cam Newton and Mike Glennon had a lower completion percentage on at least 124 drop backs in 2021. In 2022, the only two lower were Zach Wilson and Skylar Thompson.
Here’s the good news. Lance has high end traits. If he begins to fulfill his potential, watch out. There are several examples of quarterbacks who started out slow only to blossom later. A couple of the more recent examples are Trevor Lawrence and Jalen Hurts.
After a rookie season in which Lawrence’s completion percentage was just 59.6, he completed over 66 percent last year while leading the Jaguars to the playoffs.
Jalen Hurts is another example. In four starts as a rookie Hurts completed just 52 percent of his attempts. Hurts followed up a rough rookie campaign by hitting over 61 percent of his attempts while leading the Eagles to the playoffs. Last year he hit 66.5 percent, was named to the Pro Bowl, and led Philadelphia to the Super Bowl.
I really like Trey Lance. I think he is an outstanding young man and I’m pulling for him to be the 49ers starter over all the other QBs on the roster including Purdy. My personal belief is QB accuracy and mechanics are somewhat innate skills. It’s exceptionally rare for a QB to get to the NFL and then somehow magically become an accurate passer. I just don’t see Trey Lance ever becoming a highly accurate passer. When I draft QBs from my couch I never ever draft inaccurate college QBs in the first round. I think that is a mistake in every instance. I hope Lance becomes the guy but I just don’t see it happening.
I’m far from ready to give up on Lance, but I just don’t see it happening this year. Hopefully he will work hard and continue to learn, so that someday he can match his potential which should be very high given his physical and mental skills.
My only problem with Lance is the price the 49ers paid to draft him. Maybe he will be worth that price someday but I doubt it.
I don’t blame Lance for the business side that the 49ers worked to obtain him, this was on the 49ers FO, not Lance’s.
I was looking at Trey’s 2019 season in college when he put himself on the map with 28 TDS with zero Int’s. Yet, his pass completion rate was just a little over 66%. Watching him throw deep passes to Christian Watson was beautiful.
On top of this, he had the ability to run for big plays.
I’m definitely not counting Lance out, because I haven’t seen the best of Trey Lance, yet. Perhaps he starts on that journey this season.
TBD
He looked like a deer in the headlights every time he had the ball. He’d frequently run the football straight into the pile for minimal gain + injury risk. I’m no expert but what I see is an athlete playing quarterback, rather than an athletic quarterback.
AES,
The problem with his accuracy was that he showcased it in college as well. Even in that season there is a fair amount of film where he just airmails the ball missing wide open receivers.
It was to the point where PFF graded him as the least accurate qb coming out in terms of accuracy. I read that then watched all of his throws and It was at that point that I was against drafting him and wanted Fields. As I don’t believe in coaching accuracy too much, especially if it is on the extreme end.
That said once SF drafted him I was hoping that I was wrong and that SF could bring him along, improving his accuracy a bit while building an offense that would cater to his strengths… and tbh still would like to see this. I just dont think he has the traits SF once thought.
Shoup,
My stance is that Lance has not seriously had the opportunity to develop his NFL QB play due to a freak injury that wiped out almost an entire season. That’s not making an excuse, it’s a fact. You can’t develop if you can’t stay on the field.
As I’ve often said, nobody knows for certain what Lance is capable of at this point. Whether he finds a successful career or not, can’t be determined as of yet. Maybe we can finally find out without question this season.
I don’t know if we disagree much there… I think SF wanted to develop and play him but injuries basically ruined that.
However, I also am starting to think that perhaps SF inflated his grade in regards to his arm and athletic ability given the sample size and quality of competition and perhaps were not alarmed enough in regards to his accuracy issues.
And again, I agree with you we don’t know for sure what he will be, and I really would like to see what he can be here. But extreme negative traits scare the heck out of me, so when PFF grades him out as the least accurate draft eligible qb when throwing to open receivers, I wouldn’t have touched him in the first round. But if he cleans up his motion and becomes routinely accurate throwing to wide open guys I think his upside sky rockets.
“It was to the point where PFF graded him as the least accurate qb coming out in terms of accuracy.”
Yet, there were many more pundits that said, of all the QBs in his draft class, Lance had the highest ceiling.
There have been many QBs throughout the league that have won who have not had a shinning pass completion rate.
Lance is young enough to improve in this area. 4 NFL starts does not define a QBs career path, it only shows area’s needing attention.
That’s what private workouts with Patrick Mehomes and training is for.
Yet, there were many more pundits that said, of all the QBs in his draft class, Lance had the highest ceiling.
– That makes some sense, he was the least known prospect.
There have been many QBs throughout the league that have won who have not had a shinning pass completion rate.
– completion percentage is not accuracy and who are all these winning qbs that struggled with accuracy? Keeping it somewhat modern.
Per PFF.
All-Time Pass Completion % Leaders
Photo of Joe Burrow
Photo of Drew Brees
Photo of Jimmy Garoppolo
Photo of Deshaun Watson
Photo of Justin Herbert
Photo of Kirk Cousins
Photo of Kyler Murray
Photo of Dak Prescott
Photo of Teddy Bridgewater
Photo of Patrick Mahomes
Photo of Matt Ryan
Photo of Peyton Manning.
I’ll look at it from a different angle.
According to PFF a great completion rating does not guarantee championships. Of the “modern” QBs listed above only three have won SBs.
And Brees was not a bonified winner until he got past his arm injury. And that’s my point when it comes to Lance. Let’s see what he can do now that he’s finally healthy. He played with an injured finger on his throwing hand. This type of injury is not conducive to accurate passes.
I’m going to make an educated opinion on Lance based on him being healthy.
Thats because you are using completion percentage as a measure of accuracy when its really not.
Everyone completes a higher percentage today than in years past due to certain rule changes and the way modern offenses have evolved to take advantage of that.
I like Jimmy more than many but no one would argue that he was more accurate than Tom Brady or that Kyler Murray is more accurate than Aaron Rodgers.
When PFF referred to his struggles with accuracy coming out it was in relation to the number of times he missed wide open receivers running down the field, not his completion percentage (which was decent ). Think throwing against air. Most NFL qbs make those throws in their sleep.
However, Per all reports this really has not been the case for Trey in any camp to date even when healthy.
And I dont want to make a judgment on him yet but I will say that is a massive red flag.
Let’s not forget that Lance also threw 28 TDs and 0 Int’s.
PFF (imo) is being a little disingenuous in not noting this. They apparently failed to mention that among Lance’s many passes not being accurate, 28 of them went for 6 points.
As I’ve already said, I’m going to withhold judgement on Lance until he can prove himself when healthy.
Yup those numbers are good.
But It tends to happen when you’re going against opponents that are completely overmatched.
Think Alabama vs Duke only imagine that every weekend then in the championship game they play Rutgers as their huge upgrade in opponent.
His team multiple future pros and he rarely went against a team with 1.
Purdy completed an NFL record 80% of his throws from 10-20 yards. The gap between Purdy to no. 2 was as high as no. 2 to no. 30. On throws over 20 yards, Purdy had the same accuracy as Mahomes.
First, Lance needs to greatly improve on ALL of his accuracy. Too many of his completed throws are still high or behind the receiver. Bill Walsh used to chide his QB’s if the ball wasn’t placed in front of the receiver to hit them in stride. Throwing a consistent spiral is paramount to accuracy.
Lance needs to improve getting through his progressions much more quickly, and not staring down his receiver. Football is a game of inches and fractions of a second.
He still looked too robotic in mini-camp. It’s the difference between having to look at the keyboard while typing and knowing where the keys are once you’re proficient. QB coaching guru Jeff Christensen said that it usually takes him a day to identify a player’s mechanical errors. With Lance, he said that it took FOUR DAYS.
My money says that Lance isn’t on the roster in 2024.
Is Lance that gifted?
Given his lack of reps, its obvious he was primarily drafted based on traits.
– The problem is he hasn’t shown himself to be a natural runner as he is neither able to run over people like Allen and Cam Newton, run away from them or make them miss like Lamar.
– Now it appears his arm is ok but not special, with Larry Kruger is saying Darnold has a bigger arm (which is Good but in no way special something like Derek Carr) and Jack is agreeing with him.
– His accuracy issues are well documented so thats not it.
So other than having NFL size where is he special?
What elite trait does he have?
Play fakes?
Are you saying that at this stage in Lance’s small sample size of play, he is not capable of developing?
I have no doubt that Purdy is the #1 QB when healthy. And even though Darnold had a respectful year between warming the bench and starting, I’m more inclined to say that his overall play has not secured a long-term starting role in his more NFL playing games than Lance.
Counting out Lance with such a small game pantry is unfair, imho.
Are you saying that at this stage in Lance’s small sample size of play, he is not capable of developing?
– No, that is not what I said at all, I expect development. That is the least we can expect.
I am only wondering (based on Jack and Larry’s reports) if the traits he was drafted for were found to be inflated.
And those I wouldn’t expect to massively improve.
Trey seems like a great young man. Athletically gifted, big, fast. I wish him well, but purdy has several traits
that remind me of another QB from the past. Superior field vision, short distance scramble speed, pocket awareness and above all the ability to throw an accurate, catchable ball. On time.
“short distance scramble speed”
thats a perfect description of Purdy
The difference is- Purdy Wins games. Lance can be a capable Backup, but should get a chance to compete.
Shemp, you present solid points; but what is that word you typed there?
.
All I see on my screen are asterisks. Apologies in advance if I appear as a Luddite.
.
Getting lonely again, Sebbie?
I believe the Niners drafted Lance based on his potential and took into account his limited experience and the need to work with him to develop his skills. When they started him last year, I believe they had a plan to limit his exposure because they didn’t need him to be great considering the overall talent of the team. Unfortunately he was injured which delayed the plan for a year and now Purdy has won the starter position which further slows Lance’s development.
However, Lance doesn’t have much market value and if Purdy remains healthy this year, I doubt he’ll have much market value next year also. My conclusion is that the Niners will keep him on the roster in 2024 and continue to develop his skills as the backup.
This seems perfectly reasonable to me as well.
I know I sound somewhat negative on Lance because I’m questioning his evaluation based upon reports. However if the team is seeing a bright and talented but Raw qb then I would absolutely be willing to ride out his contract in hopes that he develops.
Felix,
By 24 the 49ers will be paying him way too much to keep him as a back up. By then they probably will have renegotiated Purdy if he has continued to excel. If Lance looks better in 23 but not good enough to overtake Purdy I see the 9ers trading him before the 24 draft. If he doesn’t look better/good this year I see the 9ers cutting him after the 23 season if it isn’t too big of a cap hit.
OC,
His 2024 salary is only slightly more than 2023. They have Purdy at a very low cost so $10m isn’t too much to pay a back up with his potential and besides the cap hit is probably higher with a trade. I think you are way off base thinking they could cut him next off season. I doubt their opinion of Trey has changed much since they drafted him.
“My conclusion is that the Niners will keep him on the roster in 2024 and continue to develop his skills as the backup.”
This scenario would be the best one for Lance. If he improves on some of his weaknesses, and plays well in the unfortunate possibility that Purdy misses time if injured, he will not only bolster his
value but could be looked on as a potential starter on a different team.
Some people with genuine concerns note his weaknesses, but, I’m looking forward to see what a healthy Trey Lance is capable of.
Having said that, he first has to beat out Darnold in TC.
I hope this year in camp and preseason games KS doesn’t call any run plays for Lance. Let him work out of the pocket and on roll outs. He can scramble if the situation calls for it but no called runs. Lets see how much he has improved as a pure passer. He needs to play a half in all 3 preseason games and get at least 30% of the snaps in the scrimmage. In the 3 preseason games and scrimmage I hope he gets to throw the ball at least 50 times. I don’t see any scenario where Lance begins the season as the starter, other than injuries. He needs to look outstanding in camp and preseason and then sit back and see if Purdy gets injured or he totally s***s the bed.
Truth is that Purdy will get a lot more leeway than Lance in terms of mistakes until he’s deemed healed completely.
It really is an uphill battle for Lance. I hope it brings out the best in him.
OC, why would they not call run plays for him since that’s one of the reasons they drafted him and at this point, his passing game isn’t real good? They aren’t going to change the offense they designed for him, but hopefully they can get him to make better reads in the option plays and to be more patient with his runs.
Felix,
We are talking about preseason games their not going to run their regular season offense anyway. It is his passing game that needs improvement for him to compete with Purdy, by calling all passes for TL they would be giving him a chance to prove he can pass better than Purdy. If he doesn’t make big improvement in his passing he likely won’t be around next year. imho