Here’s my list of the top-10 pass catchers in the draft. Feel free to tear it apart and make your own list.
1. Coby Fleener, Stanford, 6-6, 247 lbs., tight end, h-back, slot receiver, split end, flanker. Fleener has the potential to be a faster Tony Gonzalez. As a pass catcher, Fleener’s the total package. He’s big, he’s fast, he’s quick, and he has good hands. As a blocker, he’s underrated and he can improve.
2. Rueben Randle, LSU, 6-3, 212 lbs., split end. Randle’s a big-play receiver who can win outside on short, intermediate and long routes. He ran a 4.43 at his Pro Day and averaged 16.8 yards per catch over his three-year career in the SEC. He’s a similar prospect to Hakeem Nicks.
3. Jarius Wright, Arkansas, 5-10, 182 lbs., slot, flanker. Last season Wright led the SEC in receiving yards and touchdown catches, with 1,117 and 12, respectively. He’s like Mario Manningham in that he’s a small guy who can play flanker and make acrobatic catches down the field along the sideline, but he’s unlike Manningham because he goes over the middle and makes tough catches in traffic. Jarius Wright is a much better prospect than Manningham was. He could be the next Victor Cruz or Antonio Brown, both of whom averaged more than 16 yards per catch last season.
4. Michael Floyd, Notre Dame, 6-3, 220 lbs., split end, flanker. Floyd’s a similar prospect to Dwayne Bowe, who caught 15 TDs for the Chiefs in 2010, but he’s not quite as good. Bowe averaged 16 yards per catch in the SEC while Floyd averaged 13.3 yards per catch.
5. Greg Childs, Arkansas, 6-3, 219 lbs., split end. Childs missed most of the 2011 season with a patella tendon injury, but before he got hurt he was widely considered one of the best, if not the best receiver in the draft. As a sophomore in the SEC he averaged 18.6 yards per catch. Recently at his Pro Day he ran a 4.39 40-yard dash and he jumped 40.5 five inches vertically. His hands are massive – 10 1/8 inches. Because of the knee injury, Childs is projected to be a fourth-round pick, but he could develop into the best split end in the entire draft.
6. Marvin Jones, Cal, 6-2, 199 lbs., split end, slot, flanker. Jones will be what the Niners hoped Michael Crabtree could be when they drafted him in 2009 – a versatile wide receiver who can win outside and inside in the NFL. Jones is quicker and faster than Crabtree, and he averaged more yards per catch in college, too.
7. Stephen Hill, Georgia Tech, 6-4, 209 lbs., slot. Who knows if he’ll ever be a good route runner? He didn’t run them in college – he ran straight. He has below average lateral quickness, so he’ll probably never run crisp routes, which means he’ll probably never become a good split end. But, he could become a Super Marques Colston – a big slot receiver who sprints the seam and beats linebackers, safeties and nickel cornerbacks. Certain offenses and quarterbacks – like the Saints and Drew Brees – are lethal with a big slot guy. Colston’s been a 1,000-yard receiver five times for New Orleans. Hill could be even better if he lands on the right team.
8. Alshon Jeffery, South Carolina, 6-3, 213 lbs., slot. Like Hill, Jeffery probably will not separate on the outside against good corners in the NFL because he’s not laterally quick. And like Hill, Jeffery’s NFL future is at slot receiver. But unlike Hill, Jeffery isn’t exceptionally tall or fast. He did however average 16.6 yards per catch over three seasons in the SEC, which is outstanding. If he stays in shape, he could develop into a good big slot receiver and red zone threat in the NFL.
9. Kendall Wright, Baylor, 5-11, 197 lbs., slot, flanker. Despite playing with an elite quarterback against weak Big XII cornerbacks, Wright averaged only 13.3 yards per catch in his four-year college career. That’s a red flag. His average jumped up to 15.4 yards per catch last season mostly because he had three monster games at the end of the year, mostly because his quarterback, Robert Griffin III, was en fuego. Besides those three games, Wright was not a big-play deep threat. He mostly caught screens and underneath passes from the slot. He’s quick and fast so he could be a good third-down slot possession receiver in the NFL, but I don’t think he’ll be the next DeSean Jackson, who can line up at flanker and consistently beat No. 1 cornerbacks deep.
10. Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma St., 6-1, 215 lbs., slot. Blackmon will not consistently separate outside the numbers against good cornerbacks in the NFL. He’ll be a slot receiver who’s not very tall and not very fast, sort of like Michael Crabtree.
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@Grant
I think both Sanu and Criner are better receivers than Alshon Jeffery. Sanu is faster, more physical, and more natural receiver. Criner was very productive in college, had a solid day at the Senior Bowl, and has been compared to Marques Colston.
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=82337&draftyear=2012&genpos=wr
Can someone please, anyone…. Can anyone or somebody or even anyone pretending to be somebody please explain to me why Grant keeps calling Jeffrey a slot receiver. Anyone. Get me a link. Educate me. For those Smith haters who just want to rub it in my face… here’s your chance. Please explain to me how Alshon Jeffrey is a slot receiver.
I think he’s trolling….. and it’s genius.
yeah, that didn’t make any sense to me either. Pro Football Weekly had Jeffrey projected as a Z or Flanker.
Flankers typically don’t have to be the fastest guys but they have quick, run good routes to be able to catch in traffic and run after the catch. A good Flanker can read how coverage will effect him and the Tight End on his side and adjust his route accordingly.
Slots or “F’s” are usually quicker guys that can catch in traffic that offenses try to match up on linebackers or safeties.
Split Ends or X’s are usually the bigger, stronger and fastest (but not necessarily quickest) Wide Receiver on the field. The reason being is because the Corner can line up right up in the face of the X and hit/press him right off of the line of scrimmage (the Z/Flanker gets to line up off of the line of scrimmage and has an advantage). Split Ends/X’s tend to get more single coverage with the Safeties keeping their attention on the opposite side of the field where the Flanker and the Tight End are lined up. So in many Offenses the Split End/X tends to run more deep routes.
The knocks on Jeffrey are that he has “build up speed” (ie. no instant burst), undisciplined routes and stiff hips.
I believe Jeffery ran a better 40 at his Pro Day. Something in the mid 4.4 to upper 4.4′s which is not blazing speed but better than the 4.6′s he was posting at the combine. IMO Jeffery is sort of a “tweener”. He doesn’t quite fit the classic mold of any of the wide out positions. He’s not fast enough to be another Calvin Johnson type. But he could be a basketball type Wide Out like Vincent Jackson or Colston. Or if he learned to even adequately block an undersized Tight End/H-Back like Shannon Sharpe used to be in which case he could sort of be considered an F/Slot receiver…but again more Shannon Sharpe or Vernon Davis (Davis’s routes are more like a deep receiver than a classic Tight End) than a Wes Welker slot back.
My dark horse at WR is TY Hilton (Florida International, 5-10, 183). CBS Sports calls Hilton the most explosive athlete in this draft class and might be worth a look. I think this kids has lots of potential.
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1638761/ty-hilton
Again, thanks for the link, Nick. Explosive, yes, but the rest of the comments are a little worrisome… As you mentioned in your previous post, his light frame threatens injury; “… strong durability concerns hurts his NFL future, including a hamstring issue that kept him out of any all-star games and the combine. He battled injuries over his career and his frail-looking frame creates concern with NFL teams”
If you see something special in the guy Nick, then I guess I’d have to give serious consideration to him in the later rounds. Depends also on who else is there in those later rounds. MY big concern right now is at guard. Grant made a good case a while back for getting a vet, but I don’t see any moves that way by our front office.
If he drops to the mid rounds (say 5-6), what’s the risk in taking Hilton? The potential reward out weighs the risk. Don’t you think?
Interesting guy Nick. Reminds me a bit of Johnny Lee Higgins of the Raiders a few years ago. Looked pretty good until he was levelled by a DB, and was never the same again. That’s what I worry about when drafting WR’s with slight builds. Could be worth a flyer late though.
Two things Grant.
1. It’s hard to believe that based on Crabtree’ college accomplishments, he has become average in the NFL. If he can improve on last years numbers he could still be a viable weapon for this offense.
2. K.Wright is better then the numbers you attribute to him. His YPA may look a little pedestrian, but he caught a truck load of passes from all ranges of the field even when the defense was keying on him. I don’t agree, but I respect your opinion of him.
The more I look at Fleener, the more I feel he is a better fit for our offense. His potential is off the chart and he could help our redzone and 3rd dwn issues from day one. I’m compelled to go with Fleener given the chance.
Another convert. Welcome aboard AES.
Yep. I know JH can work him in. He can also split out wide, be used out of the backfield, etc. The one downside about VD and Walker, as far as tight ends go, they are on the short side. Unfortunately, I think some team between 20-30 will pick Fleener before we do. With all the tight end hype, he’s like Graham or the kid from the Pats, but faster.
@AES
Anybody can have improved numbers. That means nothing. All you have to do is throw it more, or throw when he is covered.
That isn’t what I need to see. Big plays in big moments in big games. That is what makes a player great. Not a stat sheet. Stat sheets have never once a single game. Big plays do. And they always do in the playoffs in critical times.
“…have never once won a single game”.
Sorry for any confusion with this one.
*YPCA*
Grant,
Sounds like you are conceding our bet. No Hill in the top ten, and he won’t be the second WR off the board according to your latest rankings. We’ve got to find something else to bet on now.
I’m not conceding anything. Who knows what the Bills draft board looks like?
Ah you’re going to stick it out. Good for you. Bills draft board doesn’t feature Hill in the first round. Wanna bet?
You’re on.
If the Bills draft Hill I’ll say something nice about Merlots. It will hurt, but I’ll do it.
What if the Jaguars draft Hill? Or Fleener?
If the Jags draft Hill or Fleener I will also say something nice about Merlots.
It wouldn’t be as shocking though – Gene Smith is famous for reaching.
Since when is Notre Dame in the Big 10?
Grant, what is your obsession with yards per catch? That is a blanket statistic in college, and you certainly love to bring it up. Yes it matters but it’s far from the end all be all. There are too many factors and variables to judge a college receiver’s playmaking ability, speed, or any other general attribute on his yards per catch.
Percy Harvin had 14.5 ypc in his college career. Manningham averaged 17 ypc. Which one would you say is quicker and more explosive?
That’s just one example out of a thousand. Yards per catch is a crapshoot.
Manningham is. Guess what? He averaged 2.5 ypc more in college and is averaging 2.5 ypc more in the NFL too…
I don’t know about you, but I would take Harvin over Manningham 100 times out of 100. The numbers reflect the way Harvin is used, especially in college. Perfect example of why ypc is not an accurate statistic to measure a player’s ability. Harvin is used on lots of screens and short routes. Oh, and I’m sure that having Eli Manning as your quarterback helps over Christian Ponder or Tarvaris Jackson.
Apples to oranges. Blanket statistic.
Dane Sanzenbacher averaged more yards per reception in college than Desean Jackson. Seriously, take any two receivers and compare their ypc in college. Its a crapshoot, and more often than not, means very little.
I didn’t use ypc as a blanket stat, but you’re railing against it blanketly.
Ah, all this talk of blankets makes me fondly remember Tim McKyer.
Wonder if anyone has choked that punk lately.
Im not sure why everyone thinks Fleener is so great. His measureable are great but last year playing with the best QB to come out since Peyton Manning he managed just 34 receptions while being the only viable receiving threat on the team.
On top of that, he was a no show in Stanfords 2 biggest games last year, Oregon and the Bowl game. Against Oregon he dropped two balls that would have extended drives while running wide open accross the field.
@LSX
“There are too many factors and variables..”
That is what Grant loves to do more than anything. Focus on one little stat while ignoring any others or the fact that stats don’t win games. Points and Turnovers do. Yet, he has yet to focus his blog on that and what the Niners can do to get better in both, etc. Look no further than the blame AS for 3rd down failing blog. 3rd down conversion is a team (offensive unit) stat. Not a QB stat. There are probably over 50 variables that go into that single stat. And the QB is not responsible for anywhere near all 50+.
Grant, you had me at “Teaser: #1…” in the tweet. Then I clicked the link…
Spitblood, you had me at “educate me.” Ha, ha, …slot… ha, ha, ha…
What comes after insanity? He’s driving me to it.
I think your hair turns purple and stands up… umm, I mean, never mind, Dude, don’t worry about it.
I think the blog host is trolling, and you can’t do that…. can you? It’s just not fair.
It may not be fair, but then again, it’s like you were born for this place, Spit!
I don’t appreciate that. Everything I write is from the heart.
In recent years, the NY Giants have been quite successfull in drafting and finding solid WRs. They worked out Muhamed Sanu of Rutgers last week and are apparently impressed with him. Sanu’s stock dropped after the combine when he ran a 4.67 40. But during his pro day, he signficantly improve that time by running a 4.41 40 .
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1147248-new-york-giants-nfl-draft-updates-latest-news-trade-rumors-storylines
Nick – I didn’t know he ran a 4.41. That’s a horse of a different color. 40 times are important, but it’s almost like you need a body of work in the 40 – time from your pro day, combine and somewhere else. And what’s the deal? Why are all these players running really slow 40 times at the combine, then improving 2 and sometimes 3 tenths of second at their pro days? I smell a conspiracy. NFL owners trying to keep everyone out of the first round so they only have to pay 2nd round money. Greedy bastards.
That’s a full quarter of a second difference. I’d want an explanation for why he flopped at the Combine before I trust the new number. Was he hung over? Did his tootsies hurt? Because if he can legitimately run a 4.41, or even a 4.5 when he needs to, he would be back in play in the second round, at least.
@Grumpy
He was quoted as saying he wasn’t 100% for the combine
A 4.41 might even throw that kid back into the first round…
@Spit
I’ve noticed that as well. Pro day numbers tend to be better and am not sure why that’s the case. Your theory is as good as mine :)
Sometimes it’s the college inflating the number and sometimes these kids realize “oh crap, proper stance and form is more important than I thought.”
Josina Anderson told me that Sanu was “stutter stepping” out of the blocks at the combine which cost him time. Reuben Randle did the same thing. Jo-Jo is a former track star so she probably knows what she’s talking about.
Typically Pro days are hand timed individually by each scout as opposed to the laser time at the combine. There are a wide variety of times taken from his pro day but usually only the fastest is what fans hear of
The combine uses Accutrack which is a machine, meaning the second the player moves the timer starts and it stops the instant he crosses the finish line. While Pro-Days scouts hold handheld timers, in these the clock starts as soon as presses the button after seeing the player move. This makes for times that are all over the board and explains why pro-day numbers are always faster than the combine.
John,
I have to wonder if the hand held isn’t the better method. I mean, it takes a lot to get the body moving, and I guess technically that’s what you’re doing is gauging the time from point A to B. But what if the player dips his head or something to get into a better running position (not learning the proper technique required for a fast 40) right before he takes off? A fair guy holding a hand held probably wouldn’t start the clock. I don’t know… anything that has “accu” in front of it generally means “conservative numbers.”
Blackmon doesn’t impress with his measurables, but the nationally televised game (I don’t ever remember the opponent) I saw was fairly mind blowing. No other receiver was getting free but he was wide open time after time. He just looked like the greatest of all time – big and impossible to stop – a man among boys. So it wouldn’t surprise me to see him be dominant in the NFL – although I admit that was a small sample size.
@wilson
Ur probably thinking of the bowl game vs Stanford where he had 3 TDs and generally dominated. Although Stanford’s DB’s are nothing special he was impressive in that game but overall he benefited greatly from playing in a weak defensive conference (big12) and being force fed the ball. I keep thinking back 3 years when Crabtree was dominating the big 12 and looked unstoppable every game especially on Run After Catch. I have yet to see MC break tackles in the NFL and cant think of a single play where MC caught a short pass shook a couple of guys and took it to the house (something he did with regularity in college) Add to that the Rashaun Woods experience and im becoming weary of Big12 WRs who put up videogame numbers in college
Explain to me how Justin Blackmon is only the 10th best pass-catcher on your list – when almost all mock draft experts having him as their number #1 receiver? Do you know more than Mel Kiper jr.? Mock draft after mock draft has him as the #6th pick in the draft. Just because he is the same size as Michael Crabtree doesn’t mean he is a Michael Crabtree? Alex Smith is the same size as Tom Brady….Alex Smith is no Tom Brady.
Oh bite your tongue…. with another year in the same system? Alex will best Brady.
That’s a pretty good list Grant – a couple I disagree with but thats normal. I do think though that players like Jeffrey and Blackmon would only play slot on some 3rd downs. 1st and 2nd they’d be split wide. Assuming they are starters of course. Hill isn’t really a slot WR – he’s a guy I imagine would be split wide on most downs.
Nice to see Childs getting some love. I think he’d be a good pickup for the 49ers in the 3rd or 4th – should suit the offense well.
I think Sanu and Jenkins could easily be on that list as well. Sanu’s main issue for me is he tends to try the spectacular one handed catch too often, at times he could easily use 2 hands on some of those passes. I think he is a better prospect than Jeffrey though – mainly based on attitude. I worry that Jeffrey isn’t dedicated enough.
Jenkins is probably the closest prospect in this years draft to Brandon Lloyd – or even Mike Wallace. My main concern with him is he gives up on some plays, especially on poor throws, which can lead to INTs as he doesn’t fight for the ball. He also isn’t as coordinated an athlete as Lloyd. But he’s got good speed, a decent frame, and good hands, and could develop into a good flanker in the mould of Lloyd and Wallace.
A.J. Jenkins is intriguing and has already worked out for the Niners. The knock on him is his lean frame and lack of strength. He was productive in college, but had a pedestrian performance at the East West Shrine game. Jenkins is hard to evaluate.
Jenkins is a guy that would probably need a good year or two before he becomes a real contributor, as he needs to add some strength to beat press coverage. But Lloyd and Wallace faced similar concerns when they came out of college. I don’t think he’s quite as good as Lloyd or Wallace, but I think he has the skills to become a pretty good WR with a similar skill set to these players.
Hell yes…Childs in the 4th absolutely! Injury? Wow interesting thing about humans is that they heal and while healing do not remove the talent you possess…Not a fan for Fleener in the first but, hell if we got Fleener in the 1st and Childs as a 4th, that would really shore up our receiving problem to a massive degree…leaving us room in the upper rounds for a DB and OL
You know Childs is an interesting thought could turn out to be way underrated.
I read this article and thought “why is Reuben Randle’s stock dropping?”. Is this accurate?
http://www.ibtimes.com/sportsnet/afc-south/houston-texans-path-draft-mock-land-jerel_82.htm
I like Jerel Worthy. That kid can get into the backfield like a mother. His quick twitch has gotta be off the charts, but then again, so was Parys Haralson’s.
RRandle is starting to impress me as well. Good size, hands, gets separation, fights for the ball, and has heart/passion. My gut tells me the 9ers draft one of these three in the 1st round: CF, DeCastro, or RR.
@Hof
Getting Decastro would take multiple picks and leap frogging many teams. I don’t think the team would go that high for a guard. If he falls to twenty all bets are off. Rueben Randle is a great pick, but at 30? I was all for Flenner from the beginning but I read this mock that said why draft a 2nd string tight end at 30, made me think a bit. The first two picks will go guard-receiver or receiver-guard, that’s my opinion.
The RG spot will be filled by either Kilgore, Person or Boone. Look for them to sign a couple undrafted rookies to compete.
There is a reason that none of the free agents they brought in have signed, and I believe it is because they were told the situation up front and are looking elsewhere for an opportunity to play…
Andrew, TB is very cunning. He could go in a completely different direction such as DB. CRogers isn’t getting younger and will need to be replaced in a couple of years. Too many options although we believe it is CF. Well we’ll know in a week. Looking forward to the draft. It’s been a long wait!
Hof, it wouldn’t surprise me if some defensive stud was available and the Niners took him. Just two guys I have reservations about, one is Janoris Jenkins for obvious reasons, the second is Dontari Poe, way over rated.
@Andrew
I am expecting a defensive player at #30 as well.
I expect them to go Guard in round 2, and pick up at least 2 WR’s in the draft. Then come TC, have them all (drafted WR’s + guys who are already here + new FA pickups) compete for jobs. The way TB drew up the contracts, they can dump Moss easily. Manningham won’t cost them much if he stank. And 3rd-7th round picks don’t cost a team much money either.
After the competition, they will each be “slotted”. And if a WR is unhappy with his slot, I suspect the Niners try to trade him or cut him.
Any of these guys are a upgrade,with Ted Ginn return, and getting Moss and Manningham and probably two guys from the draft along with Crabs, that should send Kyle Williams to the curb, he will make some other team’s practice squad, that will be damage control.
Watch us not even draft a wideout 1st. Ha. . Sounded to me he (baalke) is thinkn bout trading down. . maybe up too. I dont care who we draft as long as they contribute and turn out anything like a.smith, or n.bowman ect. ect. Im actually rooting for Fleener and turning him into a Wr. Or Sanu. . Anyway- we about to find out!
Not to be a downer, but an American Icon died today. Dick Clark at 82. RIP A.B was on of my Faves as a kid.
Watched when I was a kid in the early 60s.
Only a few months after Don Cornelius of Soul Train.
Good call MD.
Dick Clark will be forever enshrined in the American landscape. A great man, indeed.
DC was an ICON.
For those who has NFL network they are going to do a state of the franchise of the Niners in a few minutes.
Interesting piece of the 50 biggest busts in the NFL, their is a 49 QB that made the list but it is not Smith.
http://network.yardbarker.com/nfl/article_external/backyard/top_50_nfl_draft_busts_where_are_they_now/10568806?refmod=backyard
Not even gonna look and guess G Carmazzi? If not E Gerbac
Ahhh, c’mon MD, how could you forget the howitzer from Va Tech?
Whose pick was that? Mooch?
Yeah, I can still remember Mooch talking about the howitzer he had…
One of the reasons Mooch is no longer coaching although I think he is probably better than half of the league’s coaches.
I’m guessing Druckenmiller. That poor dude never catches a break.
Drukenmiller was actually a Bill Walsh pick.
According to this article http://www.bayareasportsguy.com/does-bill-walsh-deserve-blame-for-the-49ers-past-decade-of-futility/ Walsh actually wanted Jake Plummer but he was outvoted by the other FO personnel.
@msclemons:
Drukenmiller was actually a Bill Walsh pick.
How so? Even the article you linked to refutes that suggestion.
In 1997, Walsh was merely an advisor to the team, not an employee. Dwight Clark and Vinny Cerrato were the personnel guys. The 49ers asked Walsh to review the QBs available in the 1997 and provide a recommendation. He recommended Jake Plummer. Carmen Policy, Clark, and Cerrato went with Druckenmiller instead.
Good catch Claude. I got my dates and names mixed up.
It was late!
But Carmazzi was Walsh’s mistake. He was drafted in the same draft that Brady was taken 199th. In the last couple days I saw a film clip of Walsh praising Carmazzi to high Heaven and saying how lucky they were to draft him,etc. Even Walsh made some very bad picks.
Grant…I like your top 2 and the rest of your list looks pretty accurate. I hope the 49ers get one of the top 2. I think Hill has the look of an overdrafted WR in the 1st round. I know he wasn’t in a pass happy offense, but I just wouldn’t draft someone in the 1st round who hasn’t shown a lot of production in college…regardless of the physical talent.
Grant do you forget that Jerry Rice was not very fast but ran great crisp routes…..I really do not know where you come up with some of the stuff you write.
Rice averaged almost 19 yards per catch as a rookie and he was very fast.
He was very fast when it came to on field play, not with stop watches. He claims if laser timed 40′s were around when he was drafted he would have ran in 4.6 maybe 4.7
Rice was awesome as we all know but it killed me as a kid to watch him knock that caught ball off his knee for a fumble as a rookie in the playoffs in 1985/1986. He wasn’t too happy either. lol
Juron Criner doesn’t even crack your top 10 best catching?
I don’t think he’ll separate as a split end. A big slot.
Quick is rising also albeit an upside guy that may well end up better than your bottom three.
Just because he lacks speed doesnt mean he’s not a great catcher.
JR used crisp route running to gain separation. It worked for him but are others so committed??!
Rice was faster than Craig.
Which Craig?
Roger Craig.
JR ran a 4.6 I thought RC was faster?
Craig told my dad Rice was faster. He had a long stride.
Interesting. Good to have inside LC knowledge. lol
BTW, why not interview Ira regarding BW’s draft methodology. Yes?
According to Rice’ wiki page (I know I know) he later ran a 4.3 40. I seem to recall that as well – something about not liking to hear he was slow.
The difference with JR is that he was in such great shape that he was never winded especially in the 4th qtr. If a DB wasn’t in tip top shape it was…seeee ya!
40 times don’t tell the whole story. Some guys don’t reach their top speed in 40 yards, even track stars like Usain Bolt fit this category. JR was one of those guys. Once he reached his top speed, no one could catch him. Also JR played much faster than his 40 time. Walsh was quoted as saying JR had the fasted functional speed in the NFL.
Some people just run faster when somebody is chasing them. A guy can run a 4.3 in underwear and a 4.5+ in full pads and a helmet.
Running a fast 40 requires a certain amount of technique that has nothing to do with football.
Bo jackson, 4.17 40 with shoes on. 4.13 40 SHOELESS!!
Rice, and T.O. both improved their speed with conditioning. Jerry has said that he got faster after being drafted. TO followed his lead in conditioning and also improved his speed. You need the underlying raw physical tools, but they can be leveraged.
Gil Brandt reportedly timed JR at 4.40 at the combine where is official was 4.65. Doesn’t matter though what his official forty time was, because he was the greatest Touchdown Maker and Game-Breaker that the NFL has ever seen.
I fully realize that this thread is about WRs in this year’s draft, but I’m wondering if we might have a partial solution to the problem already on the roster.
Colin Jones was drafted a year ago out of TCU as a safety, was an outstanding special teams performer for us last season, but only got one snap other than special teams… that as a WR. He’s listed as 6-0 and 201#. ran 40s at his pro-day (as previously mentioned, pro-day 40s seem to be faster than at the combine) in 4.37 and 4.34… since he played a little “O” last season, I’m really curious if the staff is legitimately considering switching him to full-time offense. He can flat-out fly, now if the coaches can teach him to run routes…
Before you trash the idea too much, remember that Bruce Miller was a DE in college but was our starting FB the next season as a rookie, and the coaches must feel that Jones has some potential at WR or he wouldn’t have been given any time there (granted one snap is not much “time”, but it IS something that wouldn’t have happened if there isn’t something there)
That’s an interesting thought.
Looks like we have a very big turn out in the voluntary team workouts. Just about every is there with the exception of Gore (who always trains in Miami) Moss ( who talked to the team months back and said he would not be here till April 30th) and Goldson ( Who has yet to sign his franchise tender).
Spitblood’s Top Ten Wide Receivers:
1.) Justin Blackmon – Unlike Grant, I’m not here for controversy and the subsequent hits on my blog.
2.) Rueben Randle – All the other receivers have some kind of issue, but Randle is the most complete.
3.) Alshon Jeffrey – Dominated SEC defenses his entire career, AND got a double team most of his senior season. Got fat after the season was over. Blew up, didn’t participate at the combine. NFL Network crushed him. Came back to pro day in shape and ran a much faster forty time. So what? He was done with college and wanted to party. None issue. Great player.
4.) Mohamed Sanu – If what NickRow wrote earlier today is true – that at Sanu’s Pro Day, he ran a 4.41, you have to put Sanu right back into your top five consideration. That kid is an amazing athlete with toughness and he plays faster than the competition. I loved Sanu over the course of the season, but lost interest when he ran 4.76 (or something like that). If he ran a 4.41 recently, I’m back in love with Sanu. And if he was hurt at the combine, credit him for trying anyway, knowing it would hurt his pocketbook. That tells me something.
5.) Kendal Wright – Sometimes people want to use a good qb against a good receiver in college (but neglect to do so with Fleener). I say chemistry with a good qb equates to learning about scenarios and situations for both Fleener and Wright. However, you have to consider the competition. For me, Kendal Wright is where the first round receivers end. Everyone else on this list is a second round pick, or third.
6.) Juron Criner – If Bill Walsh went to a Juron Criner workout, he’d probably fall in love with Nick Folk. Criner might not be as “under the radar” as we think.
7.) Jarius Wright – Give credit where credit is due. Grant was the first guy I saw onto this kid, and this kid is somewhere in between Dexter McClusterphoey and DeSean Jackson. Slight, fast and tougher than you might think – watch him layout for balls on Youtube.
8.) Stephen Hill – I don’t think Stephen Hill is a first round draft choice. That’s not to say he’s not a talented receiver. But he doesn’t look confident to me. He has a deer in the headlights look. He doesn’t look like a receiver who has his mojo, and that’s a huge piece of the puzzle for me. I think Hill is a project, and I think he’ll need two or even three years in the NFL to start actually playing some ball – kinda like DHB.
9.) Micheal Floyd. I don’t care if Floyd is there for the 49ers at 30. I don’t draft a guy with 3 DUIs. I just don’t do it in the first round. He could be a world beater and I wouldn’t draft him in the first round – and I might take him off my board entirely. Remember the Raiders’ center who got blasted before the Super Bowl? Why? Stress. Sure the Raiders’ center had mental issues, but stress triggers drinking (see me during the pursuit of Peyton Manning). If you can’t count on a guy in big games, why have him on your roster?
10.) Chris Givens – 2 different ACL injuries, fast 40 time and runs a 4.35 because he was a track star at one point. Might even fall out of the second round. Really, I just needed a tenth dude.
Nice list Spit. I especially agree with the person you have at 6
Jeffery’s senior season? Now who’s got a time machine.
Lol…. you know what I meant. Nice reversal.
@Spitblood
Here’s the article where I got the info on Sanu.
http://www.nj.com/rutgersfootball/index.ssf/2012/03/rutgers_mohamed_sanu_boosts_nf.html
Said he just wasn’t feeling well. Interesting about the laser timer…. Thanks Nick.
You left off my sleeper special; Thomas Mayo.
remember this video after the saints win?
http://youtu.be/VwOPqwROIBQ
Thanks mg,it brought tears to my eyes,…again !
I know, right?
Childs in the 4th would be outstanding value a steal…injury should not be an issue, very good fit for the 9ers
I’m on the same page as Grant on Blackmon but not as extreme. I wouldn’t drop him to #10 – maybe 4 or 5. He just looks like Crabtree 2.0 to me. Maybe a better attitude but still slow in pads.
1) Randle – perhaps the most complete WR in the draft
2) Floyd – he looks a bit slow on film
3) K. Wright – Collinsworth says he might already be at his ceiling though
4) Blackmon – Crabtree 2.0
5) Childs – really good call Grant. this guy was a projected 1st rounder before he got hurt.
6) Jeffery – Mike (the fat one) Williams 2.0
Sanu…. I think Sanu will surprise some people with wear he’s drafted.
what’s he “wear”ing?
NEVER MIND!
@MSClemens
LOL … “the fat one”
DS94everXev says:
April 19, 2012 at 7:11 am
@AES
“Anybody can have improved numbers. That means nothing. All you have to do is throw it more, or throw when he is covered.
That isn’t what I need to see. Big plays in big moments in big games. That is what makes a player great. Not a stat sheet. Stat sheets have never once a single game. Big plays do. And they always do in the playoffs in critical times.”
DS, this is one of the most slanted statements i’ve read in quit a while.
How can you continue to throw out the ‘come through in the big game’ card regarding Crabtree while insulating AS from any fault? You are nearing the threshold of the ‘Alex extremist’ condition.
Alex was 1-13 on 3rd dwn efficiency in the ‘biggest’ game of his life, but according to your rants (against Crabtree) Alex is absolved of any blame.
Also, isn’t Alex being given the benefit of a doubt because of his improvement last season. OBTW, Crabtree may have had something to do with Alex’ improved numbers being that he was the top receiver. But guess that doesn’t count for anything in your “Alexworld.”
Way to show your ‘fair and subjective’ team colors.
Sad indeed.
@AES
“Alex was 1-13 on 3rd dwn efficiency in the ‘biggest’ game of his life”
By your reasoning here (and there really isn’t much) then:
MC was 1/13 (of course he also caught one pass, so it is at least balanced)
FG was 1/13
Dixon was 1/13
KW was 1/13
VD was 1/13
Hastings was 1/13
That other WR was 1/13
DW was 1/13
Staley was 1/13
Anthony Davis was 1/13
Snyder was 1/13
Iupati was 1/13
Jonathan Goodwin was 1/13
Norris was 1/13
Boone was 1/13
KH was 1/13
Miller was 1/13
And last but not least AS was 1/13
Now, how come you and the stat masters are not looking at the other players and blaming them for 1/13.
AS showed up big in the playoffs. 6TD’s (points) while committing 0 TO’s (the only stat that is worth a damn following to determine who wins and loses games).
By the way, go look at MC’s career stats
http://www.nfl.com/player/michaelcrabtree/71269/careerstats
and judge them by games played in each year. Figure out how much “improvement” he has really made. Then add to that the drops he has had. Not forgetting the 4 he had in the playoffs in your analysis, nor the thing that matters the most (especially from a #1 WR) TD’s.
Look/think back to all the comeback wins the Niners had, led by AS. How many of those pivotal critical plays were made by MC? I mean AS tied or broke the franchise record set by God himself. So, surely the #1 WR was a critical player in all or at least most of those pivotal drives/plays. Right?
Then come back here to discuss your findings.
@DS: You’re right about MC. Where we differ is that a lot of us think they both suck.
The ones who matter most don’t though.
And for somebody who hates AS, why do you include his name in your name? Do you hate yourself? Does putting AS in your name get you angry or happy? And if it gets you angry, why do you want to be angry for?
When I hate somebody, I don’t want to be associated with them. How can one do that if they include the persons name who they hate into their own name?
It’s Fourth and Alex as in 4th & Long, as in we’re often in a tough spot with him. I don’t hate him dude. He’s actually an outstanding human being and an overall great guy. I wouldn’t want any other guy on the team moving next to me in my neighborhood. I just have a differing opinion on his QB skills. Stop the ‘hater’ nonsense. :)
“I wouldn’t want any other guy on the team moving next to me in my neighborhood. ”
I can think of at least one player I’d rather have. My favorite, Justin Smith. Nice guy. Bet he will help you out if you need him. And if any “bad” people are around, Justin Smith walking towards them will get them to scatter away a lot more than AS would.
My personal vote is for JS. But to each his own.
@AES
“Crabtree may have had something to do with Alex’ improved numbers”
I could care less about AS numbers. Just I could care less about MC’s numbers.
I hold the same guidelines for all players. Big plays in big moments (and if possible in the big games).
AS did it. He did it a lot this year. As did my favorite Justin Smith. He might have saved 2 games there. The one in Philly and the Giants regular season one as well. Also of interesting note, both of those games were AS comebacks.
See AES. You can’t pin a team stat on a single guy. They all work in harmony. Even if they never take the field together as JS and AS don’t (in normal situations).
DS:
“I could care less about AS numbers. Just I could care less about MC’s numbers.”
Then why the continued slamming on Crabtree?
If your care less, stop wasting blog space with the same song and dance routine about Crabtree coming up short in the big game. You have exhausted every angle and stat on this. And while you defend Alex with a passion (49er), you throw Crabtree (49er) under the bus.
Just come clean once and for all DS, are you a TEAM supporter or an Alex Smith supporter only? By excluding and diminishing one 49er player, who by the way improved his numbers last year and became the team leader in catches (ridiculous that numbers suddenly don’t matter to you now), you dispel any credibility of your TEAM allegiance.
Can’t speak for DS, but a bad taste in my still remains my mouth over MC’s manner of joining the team. And, since he’s been here, he’s not shown evidence that he was worth that diva/db move.
But he’s our guy, gets praise from the current staff, so as long as he’s here, I’ll cheer for him. But if he weren’t to be here in in the near or immediate future, I wouldn’t cry in my beer over it.
@AES
How many times have I written it? And it is what you are so freaking mad about.
I DON’T CARE FOR STATS. NEVER WILL. NEVER HAD. I WON’T TOMORROW, OR THE FOLLOWING DAY.
I CARE FOR PLAYERS WHO MAKE PLAYS IN CRITICAL TIMES OF THE GAME. THOSE ARE THE ONES WHO BECOME/ARE GREAT. LOOK AT HOF PLAYERS. THEY DON’T GET INTO THE HOF BY HAVING GREAT NUMBERS. BUT BY WINNING. BY MAKING BIG PLAYS IN IMPORTANT GAMES. VIRTUALLY EVERY GAME CAN GO IN EITHER DIRECTION ON SEVERAL PLAYS IN THE GAME. THOSE WHO ARE/WILL BE GREAT MAKE THEM AT THAT TIME. NOBODY REMEMBERS HOW MANY YARDS JM THREW IN 1989 UNLESS YOU ARE REALLY LONELY AND HAVE NO LIFE. THEY DO REMEMBER HOW GOOD JM WAS THOUGH. THEY REMEMBER HIS PLAY. NOT HIS STATS.
I WANT BIG PLAYS IN BIG MOMENTS. STATS DON’T INCLUDE THAT. I WANT WINS. AND THE THING THAT DETERMINES WHO WINS AND LOSES ARE POINTS AND TURNOVERS…AND SHOWING UP BIG WHEN IT REALLY MATTERS.
AND BIG WHOOP THAT MC HAD THE MOST CATCHES. I COULD CARE LESS. WHERE WAS HE WHEN THE TEAM AND AS NEEDED HIM? VD SHOWED UP. MC MUST DO THE SAME IF HE IS ON THIS TEAM IN 2012, OR ELSE HE WON’T BE COME 2013.
Do you hear me now? Do you get it? I don’t care about the thing that many of the people here put so much faith into. And, by the way, so many of those people never even took a stats class. They don’t use stats in their every day lives. Not at work, or in their spare time. They only use them here and in sports. Somehow all said people are experts in stats when they never use it in their daily lives? Never studied it in school? And likely hated mathematics their whole lives? And now they think they are so smart when using something you don’t remotely understand? That is just stupid.
@ribico
What really ticked me off about MC was that he had the chance that hardly nobody ever gets in their lifetime. A chance to learn from one the of the best ever at his job. Issac Bruce was here when MC was drafted. MC didn’t care to come in and learn how to do things from one of the best ever.
Whatever job you have, just imagine yourself in a similar situation. You just get out of school, and you can work with/under/for one of the best who ever lived at that task, and you don’t jump for it? I would volunteer for free to get such an opportunity. I certainly would not hold out from somebody who is going to make me filthy rich in my early 20′s with more money than I’d ever make in my lifetime doing anything else I could reasonably do. Add those two things up, and there is plenty of resentment for MC (or anybody) who fails to take advantage of that.
P.S. Your opinion on the matter was pretty accurate with my own.
Ribico/DS, “Can’t speak for DS, but a bad taste in my still remains my mouth over MC’s manner of joining the team.”
That was 4 years ago, let it go, move on…
As for your not crying in your beer if he isn’t here in the near future, I am in agreement with that statement about all of the players on the team not just Crabtree. The days of being able to have favorite players left when they brought in free agency. Now we are all just cheering for the uniforms.
Hey DSL,
terrible example regarding HOF players making plays and not going by STATS. I bet Over 90% of HOF players are historically in the top 5% stat wise for their perspective position at the time they were chosen to get in. PERIOD.
Just another example that whatever Dalai Lama philosophy you have in life doesn’t translate to football. You don’t know much in this arena….
Bay
Go away. Come back…no other day.
:- )
@AES
“…you dispel any credibility of your TEAM allegiance.”
Didn’t read my last paragraph before your write up, did you? I think it is spells out very clearly my TEAM allegiance.
Guys like Warren Moon, Dan Marino, Dan Fouts and Steve Young are in the HOF. Guess how many superbowl wins they have between all of them?
ONE… That’s it.
You guys that “think” stats don’t count are a bunch of old fashioned dinosaur blow hards. You use the fact that Smith doesn’t put up the stats as a model of success. It’s laughable.
Thank god guys that think like your type are few and far between. And thank god the football stadiums are void of your type of thinking period.
Sorry to have chimed in, now go back to your thoughts in your padded cell.
X-ilicious you hurt my feelings….
Bay
Go away. Come back…no other day.
:- )
< —— Thinks DSL has a crush on him…
>>Guys like Warren Moon, Dan Marino, Dan Fouts and Steve Young are in the HOF. Guess how many superbowl wins they have between all of them?
ONE… That’s it.
Ask those guys what would they rather have – a bust or a ring. Career stats or that “trip to Disneyland”. I’m betting they take the latter every time.
>>That was 4 years ago, let it go, move on…
Jack, compared to my initial revulsion for the cat during his holdout and 1st year non-contribution, I have moved on ;)
@ribico/Jack
At the time I actually gave MC the benefit of a doubt in year 1 and was happy with him on the team.
For me, it was year 2 TC and the Seattle game/first 5 games of the season that really pissed me off. I then went back and pointed to his hold-out/not playingwith Bruce from day 1 as mounting evidence against a player I did not like anymore.
Then last year I arranged a deal with Crab15 where I would not bash him in the season. And I did not do so once I promised. I even defended him from some here who say they want to keep around now. I made a big deal out a few times when AS and MC were talking with one another on the sideline discussing with one another what went wrong. That was different from years 1/2 when I didn’t see it. That was/is a big deal to me.
Then MC stinks in the playoffs. He drops passes, etc. I am at home and I am not mad at him for that (really disappointed though). Afterall JR did have a horrible few games in 1986/87.
But then MC does not point at himself for the loss. Everybody but him did point at themselves. Instead he inclined the QB/OC were at fault.
So, this is just another point along my line telling me MC hates it here. MC isn’t a team player. MC…
JR never said what MC said. Especially after he stank in the 2 biggest games of his life. And he only had the second game because of the heroics of the guy throwing him the ball combined with the guy who has faith in him. Then do say what he said…NOPE.
All those guys also had won some games. And they made some nice throws to win them.
@AES
I think you just drove DS94 over the edge …
No Nick.
I figured maybe AES can’t read the small letters. So I did uppercase to help him see them.
I’ve written many times that I don’t grade by stats, but somehow AES and others keep thinkng I do. They keep trying to pigeon-hole me to “What if MC gets1300 yards and 10 TD’s, will that make you happy?”
No. Since stats don’t win games, I want to see things that win games.
PS Fantasy football does not count.
…interesting……..”If you generously include Plummer and rush to crown Dalton, the NFL is 3-for-22 on second-round signal callers in the past 20 drafts.”……..”There is still reason for optimism on Kaepernick and perhaps Kolb, although the latter’s skittish pocket presence will likely doom him in the pros. So perhaps one or two more of the 22 second-rounders will emerge as long-term answers at the quarterback position”…….
Sources tell me the San Francisco 49ers pick in round one will come down to the highest rated offensive guard or Stephen Hill/WR/Georgia Tech.
My sources tell me the 49ers pick Alshon Jeffrey.
The highest rated guard is DeCastro. Could a trade be in the works if he slips to 20?
Why pick a guard in the first round if this is a guard- deep draft class?
The source specifically used the words “highest rated guard”. DeCastro is that guard. If he is there at 20 a trade with the Titans could be negotiated. I don’t disagree with your logic but if the source is to be believed then perhaps that is the scenario.
DeCastro would be the no-brainer: trading up to get a guard is considered illogical in the NFL, with the premium being on edge players; however, this is the gaping hole on the team, and if Baalke is going to trade up for anyone, you’d think it would be for a player that Harbaugh would be able to vouch for as “cant-miss”.
Damn Louie!
3rd down conversion is a stat that falls on the QB’s shoulders. Yea it sucks and is unfair to pin it all on one guy but that’s just how it works.
@Adam707
So do come back wins. And if not for AS, the Niners don’t make the playoffs. Much less the title game.
So, which is more important. Winning or 3rd down conversions? The Niners whole season proved 3rd down conversions are not a necessary ingredient to winning. They are a nice to add spice that makes it better, no doubt. But it is not the key stat. TO’s are. Will be. Were before. And will be in a million years.
Mind you the Niners stank all season long on 3rd down, and still had the second best record in the NFL. Mind you the Saints had the best 3rd down conversion rate in the NFL. Mind you that the Saints 3rd down conversion rate in the playoff game against us was crap. And mind you that the Saints would have won that game with that same 3rd down conversion rate had it not been for AS to VD.
And lastly, mind you that the Niners would have won that title game with a 0-13 3rd down conversion rate had it not been for a few plays which didn’t even involve the Niners offensive players.
So, in both games, the 3rd down conversions meant nothing if just one or two plays had happend for either team in both games. The only thing that did matter were TO’s. We got them in NO, we lsot them in the Title game, we lost the title game. Not many teams win the title game with a -2 TO ratio. And all 2 TO’s didn’t involve AS or the offense at all.
Just because everybody else does something does not make it right. Nor does it mean you have to conform to it.
DS I know you’re trying to defend your guy but really, the team has already spoken. They want to upgrade the QB position.
The entire NFL has spoken: they don’t want Alex.
Harbaugh did a masterful job of managing a limited QB and Alex did a good job at not crapping the bed. At the end of the day Alex is just a placeholder until the 49ers find a real QB. Whether that real QB is CK7 or JJ or a future draft pick is unknown but Harbaugh and Baalke have already made it clear Alex isn’t the future.
@msc
4 times they could have dumped AS.
4 times they signed/renegotiated/resigned him.
Those are the facts. Everything else is really just speculation. Maybe only AS was cool with the idea of competing for a job. Those other guys have always had their way. Maybe they thought it was disrespectful for them to have to compete.
Fact is msc, there are an infinite number of maybes. But only one fact.
4 times they could have dumped him.
4 times they signed him.
Yes DS, he is their best option, for now….
As are you at your job Jack.
Your sentence sounds really stupid. It applies to everybody everywhere. Basically to nobody specifically.
Get a new motto.
Since we are talking about the possibility of drafting a WR in the first round, I thought this post was appropriate:
http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/63331/questioning-how-teams-value-wrs-in-draft
This if for Rocket: Jaguars interested in Stephen Hill according to sources http://www.theredzone.org/BlogDescription/tabid/61/EntryId/25712/Keep-an-eye-on-WR-Stephen-Hill-and-the-Jaguars/Default.aspx
They will be looking at him in the second if he drops that far Grant. No way he’s going to top ten….unless….you know…he does.
Aren’t the Jag-offs the team that drafted a 6’6″ QB out of Arkansas in round #1 to convert to wide receiver? Turned out the guy was better at rolling doobies than at running routes. Again, the team that cut the veteran QB and threw the unprepared rookie Gabbert to the league’s defensive wolves. Buncha Einsteins down there, sho’nuff.
Here’s a thought…DW has one year left on his contract and will most likely ask for a starting TE salary or close to it for 2013 thus the 9ers let him go find a deal that they won’t pay. RM was signed as a one year band-aid. He may or may not last the year. Now if the 9ers draft CF with the 30th pick (not moving up) and then trade with Mia (who needs talent and picks) at 42 in the 2nd round (exchanging 2nd round picks) for a third round pick in 2012 and a third in 2013 – the 9ers grab RRandle with that pick at #42. They will still have a 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th still available in 2012. With the 4th pick they grab a RB (RTurbin) and with the 5th they select safety Tramain Thomas (Attacking turnover machine fits 9ers D style) the the rest are BPA guys who may not make the 2012 team or are relegated to the practice squad.
So the 2012 9er draft selections looks like this:
1. CFleener, TE
2. RRandle, WR (trade with Mia)
4. RTurbin, RB
5. TThomas, Safety
6. BPA
7. BPA
Personally, I like it!
Since drops are your biggest excuse for Smith’s lack of production this last year, why would you care what DW asks for? He was one of the top pass droppers on the team. Just curious.
Bay, last year is last year. This is the 2nd year for the offense in JH’s system/program. I’ll even cut MC some slack as his numbers improved last year. We’ve all re-hashed the stats from previous regimes but not AS and MC can flourish with JH. Quit looking back using stats/numbers from terrible coaches. Now the team finally has the offensive-minded HC we’ve all been asking for with a full offseason to work with. All positive!
Hof:
I agree,the teams future looks very bright to me too ! (as I have been saying for a long while now,no matter who the long term starting QB turns out to be ).
Hofer
I like it for the most part; but I would have Randle, Hill, or Gilmore in the first, Fleener or Shepherd in the 2nd, Smith (ND Safety) or TThomas in the third, Turbin in the fourth, and 5th, 6th, and 7th as trade goods to position ourselves to make it work. I’m NOT anti-Fleener, I just think that we have enough TE’s and not enough WR’s. It takes more than just typing to remake him into a WR or Hybrid.
Oregoniner, “It takes more than just typing to remake him into a WR or Hybrid.”
You obviously didn’t watch too many Stanford games over the last 2 years. There is no remaking of Fleener needed, he already has the ability to do those things…
Oregon, as much as I like DW, he has one year left and will want to test the FA for dollars and the possibility to start somewhere else. CF can do what DW’s skill set provides, but has size and better hands as part of the package. BTW, CF is the hotter commodity so he will need to be draft at 30 but RRandle should be available at #42 in second round via trade I mention.
YES!
Hofer, I like your top two picks, not so hot on a RB in the 4th round for the second year in a row, but an interesting thought process for 1 & 2.
Jack, I know we’ve disagreed for weeks regarding the RB position but I can only think back to the WR corps last year and how JH and staff dealt with that group from day one to JMorg getting hurt and then TG’s injury. If FG goes down, and BJac and ADix aren’t any better than last year, this group is in trouble with KH as the *only* threat. Personally, I like CPolk better than RTurb but he won’t be available in the 4th round, but RTurbin should be.
Hofer,
I also disagree with you regarding Hunter. He can get the job done if needed, he did it last year.
Regarding your mock above, if they get Fleener do you thinly Byham goes? If they get Turbin do you expect them to carry 6 RB’s (including Miller/Cartwright).
Jack, BJac and/or ADix may not even make the team this year. Have you been impressed with ADix? And BJac goes down too easily – not sure why the 9ers picked him up and who pushed for it??!
Hofer,
I don’t have a feeling one way or another on Dixon, but like the Jacobs signing. Regardless, I don’t see why you take a RB in Rds 1-4 unless you expect them to make the team. It has been proven that good RB’s can be found late or in free agency after the draft.
Jack, I believe RTurbin could beat out an aging BJa and ADix. The 9ers had him in for a visit recently.
That’s your belief. We will know for sure by next Saturday night…
Yup, yup!
Hey wait a minute Hofer – where’s Polk? I thought he was your draft crush? (I like him too)
DS:
“AS did it. He did it a lot this year. As did my favorite Justin Smith. He might have saved 2 games there. The one in Philly and the Giants regular season one as well. Also of interesting note, both of those games were AS comebacks.”
No DS, according to your very own theory of coming up ‘big’ in the big games, Alex did not come up big.
Evidently you did not readf my post as well. Alex did not come up ‘big’ in the biggest game of his life.
Saying that ‘both’ games were comebacks, is another way of saying 2 games. Which again should not count according to your statement that ‘you care less about numbers.’
DS, let’s simplify; You’re either ALL IN (by supporting every 49er) or NOT.
Which is it?
Every player (at least starters) can contribute to wins as well as loses. But they are still 49ers.
AES,
at some point you have to wonder why you are trying to have a football conversation with Gumby and Pokey…..
Bay,
Are you going to a road game this year?
Actually Bay, i’ve enjoyed a little bantering with DS of late. As long as it doesn’t turn into a name-calling fray i’m cool.
Big P,
I am going to the Jets games. I am really curious as to the culture of the stadium. I am wearing my Niners gear loud and proud….
Staying in Manhattan.
Was going to go to N.O. It was a toss up. N.Y. won….
Grant do you go to any away games?
I want to go to an away game this year. I wanted NO as well. I’m still contemplating GB for the opener, but it’s Green Bay. IHOP is probably considered a fine dining establishment there.
BigP,
considering the Jets game? I also thought about GB. I have two tickets to that game if I want them. It’s just that their city has no draw for me to go there other than the game…
The wife and I are doing New England. Good vacation spot and wintertime in Boston is beautiful.
Nice.
Bay, you’ll be fine. I’ve been to many a NY team/Niners game at the Meadowlands, wearing team colors, starting with the playoff game in Dec 1985. New Yorkers have a rap for bombastic rudeness but are smart and knowledgeable sports fans, appreciate good play on the field even if it comes from the opposition (this isn’t Philly, after all!)
The last Niners game I was at, O’Sullivan was the QB, pitched a couple of INTs, Gore ran for 20 something yards, as usual in the Nolan era, they stunk it up (as I recall, Nolan was fired just after this game).
Out in the parking lot afterwards some drunk Giants fan got in my face – “The 49ers suck!!!”. Hey, I told him I agreed with him. Situation diffused, no hospital trips required.
Jets fans are little more rowdy than Giants fans, they had to increase security at the stadium following drunken harrassment of female fans in the stairwells a couple seasons back.
In any case you’ll find yourself in company of lots of Niner fans, in jerseys, at the game.
ribico…….Out in the parking lot afterwards some drunk Giants fan got in my face – “The 49ers suck!!!”. Hey, I told him I agreed with him. Situation diffused, no hospital trips required
Yep you were smart. Like I said “If you run your mouth out there like you do on here” “Your going to the hospital”. Go ahead Keyboard toughy run that mouth out there. Wheeew Oh and BTW Ive got fam all over NY, S Bronx to Brooklyn. I may not live there but Ive bitten the Big Apple, and I know if you are a tough guy there are tons of people there that would love to shut your mouth for you. But I guess your just a loud mouth on the keyboard…..Pathetic
md, just chill. I’m not interested in your chest thumping.
@ribico
+1
I don’t even know how it started.
Do me a favor here ribico. If md continues to go at it, just don’t reply. It will eventually kill itself off. And you two can go back to being cool with one another.
See NO game for perfect example.
And AS =EM in that game with 2 of3 things. TD and TO.
And like every QB before, now, after, AS is simply the distributor of the ball. You first need to distribute the ball to make plays and if nobody is open (AKA MC), then you can’t do much of anything. EM playmakers got open in the 4th (2nd TD). Ours did not. Guess who won?
We get it, things have to be perfect for Smith to have success. He is simply a distributor of the football, not a top tier QB that can make those around him better. That is why Harbaugh attempted to get Manning, which didn’t work out. Hopefully, Smith can do a better job of getting the ball to his new targets this season.
That’s harsh, P. Give Alex another six years in this system and I’m sure he’ll improve, from mediocre to average! You just need to be patient.
lol
Just wonder what AS excuse is going to be next year, no camp Alex, better receivers and same offensive coordinator for two years in a row, although I would put Greg Roman and AS in the same category, both can use big improvement in the job performance category.
Stalker
Guess things have to perfect for MC as well. Perfect spiral, nobody blocking his sight so he locate the ball. Right at the chest.
And, he still drops it.
Show me MC making catches like LF did in Game 1 last year for their only score (and he does it ALL the time) and I’ll change my mind. You can’t. He can’t (or has not after 3 years).
You know hell Stalker?
You are in it.
Go away. Freaking loser stalker
BigP, the deal with DS and Crabtree is all about the holdout, his poor play in the playoffs and that he has spoke his mind a few times in interviews.
He doesn’t care that he led the team in receiving during the regular season only the playoff struggles, and completely fails to realize that without Crabtree’s contributions this team is not even in the playoffs.
@Jack
Really? What big play did MC make to win games? Keep in mind, he would have had to make huge plays to win at least 5 games which the Niners would have lost without MC and having some other WR instead.
The Niners make the playoffs by winning the division. And they did that easily. And he didn’t lead a great core of WR’s either.
BigP, I don’t care whether DS is a guy/girl/space alien.
I just get a kick out of how DS will rip into Crabtree, but when anyone brings up AS it is ON! Even if you use the exact same argument, just change the player, there is no hearing it from him.
JH,
You are absolutely right. That is why she calls 49ergirl and I stalker, because we have called her out on her b.s. She didn’t like that we used her own statements against her. It’s the vicious cycle of DS, she never lets facts get in the way of a good story. They are more like novels, but you get the point.
BigP
Go to hell. Stay there. Enjoy yourself. You deserve it. You really do
NOW GO!
Have a pleasant stay.
:- )
KNBR is announcing that they will have a ‘draft day’ party with C.Fleener as one of their guest. Hmmm, has Harbaugh let the cat out of the box?
Inquiring minds want to know (lol).
Guest via radio? He is attending the draft.
I was thinking the same thing.
Fleener is one of players on hand at Radio City Music Hall Thursday night. At least *someone* besides Grant thinks he is first round material ;)
KNBR also covers Stanford football, which is probably where the Fleener connection comes from..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FUVTm_SWCI&feature=youtube_gdata_player
Nice write up and video on Bruce Irvin, the OLB the 49ers will take in round 2…
http://blogs.sacbee.com/49ers/archives/2012/04/baalkes-mystery-prospect-a-look-at-bruce-irvin.html
grant you over empasize the stats of the SEC players thats not to say that the best football in the nation is’nt played in the SEC its to say that alot of their stats are artificially inflated due to the fact that most teams in the SEC play an absolutley horrible non conference schedule with many teams playing 2 div 1aa opponents you add those stats to those achieved against the bottom feeders of the SEC IE. kentucky vanderbilt tenn and you have stats that do’nt reflect the overall ability of the player. it the same as the inflated stats of the spread teams
Even tho construction has already started on the new stadium, ground breaking ceremonies are in a few hours. Even tho this is a great moment in forty niner lore, I am going to miss the Stick – I have had many pleasuable moments there at Niner games and Giant games. I have watched Brodie and Mays play, amongst many others, to numerous to name. There will always be a part of me saddened by the demise of the Stick. Bring on the new stadium and it will soon have its great moments and warmer to boot.
i will shed a tear or two also
Anyone here still have their Croix De Candlestick pins???
(I do ;)
I will definitely miss the place. There is something special about Candlestick Park and San Francisco. For me, it doesn’t get any better than MNF at the Stick. That being said, this franchise deserved a new stadium twenty years ago and I really believe that Silicon Valley is THE place to be in the bay area. Those $80k PSL’s are almost sold out and I would bet that they will get a huge naming rights deal for the stadium. As a business move, I think this will prove to be a brilliant decision.
BigP – I totally agree. I remember playing the NYG and had a row full of NYG fans in front of us. The game finished 12-10 9ers We gave each other grief from the kickoff until we walked out into the parking lot together. I can’t even remember how I got home that night. LOL
Had some great times pre-21 and post-21 at the stick!!
Hofer,
Good times.
My seats will coming with me on the last game in the stick. It is literally my home away from home in winter time. Sooo many memories I wouldnt know where to begin. Thank God for cameras.
I’m saddened that SF didn’t get it done. Money talks….
Money talks but Newsome completely bumbled the process. The way he tried to leverage the Niners stadium with the Olympic bid would have pissed any owner off.
Exactly,J Alioto would’ve got it done!
And SF had tons of chances. And the BEST and ONLY franchise from the City got squat from the people of SF. Santa Clara stepped up, it could be worse, they could have been moving to L.A
true dat.
Here’s how I stack the board so far, weighted for our needs and style of football:
Guys we have no real chance at, or don’t want anyway:
1. Luck (QB)
2. Griffin (QB)
3. Richardson (RB)
4. Claiborne (CB)
5. Kalil (T)- overvalued
6. DeCastro (G)
7. Upshaw (DE)
8. Blackmon (WR)- overvalued
9. Floyd (WR)- overvalued, very risky.
10. Cox (DT)
11. Gilmore (CB)
12. Coples (DE)
13. Barron (S)
14. Glenn (C-G)- overvalued
15. Reiff (T)
16. Brockers (DT)- overvalued
17. Tannehill (QB) – overvalued, risky.
18. Ingram (DE)
19. Kuechly (LB)
20. Still (DE)
Guys who might fall to 30
21. Poe (NT)- overvalued, project.
22. Worthy (DT)
23. Kirkpatrick (CB)- risky, high chance of a bust.
24. Adams (OT)
25. Fleener (TE-WR)- good pick at 30, not so much at 21 or 22.
26. Randle (WR)
27. Wright (WR)
28. Silatolu (G)
29. Hill (WR)
30. McClellan (OLB)
31. Smith (S)
32. Jeffery (WR)- risky, depends on attitude. Boom or bust pick.
33. Mercilus (OLB)
34. Martin (OT)
35. Jones (OLB)
36. Hightower (ILB) – not a need here.
37. Sanu (WR) – risky, depending on true 40 time. Boom or bust.
38. Martin (RB)
39. Perry (DE) – not a good fit in SF.
40. Branch (OLB)
I like Crick or Criner in round two. Ladarius Green in 3 if we don’t take Fleener, or Turbin. Jarius Wright or Jonathan Massaquoi in 4. 5 through 7, trade for future picks.
Totally agree Blackmon is overvalued, I think the same can be said for Hill.
Maybe. But my gut is he goes before we pick, and we don’t have to worry about it.
I’m still unsure about Sanu. He could leap up a dozen slots if he is a legit 4.4.
I’m inclined to sit at 30, rather than moving. There are enough names here that I think we can get value there.
Great list Grumpy. The only missing names might be Zeitler and Konz. In the last day two people I respect have said they like Zeitler more than DeCastro. Dave Lapham (Bengals announcer and former OL) is really high on Z.
Best memory at the stick ,seeing the Beatles last performance -worst the Cowboys R.S. coming off the bench at knocking us out of the championship. Should have kept the generic moniker BAY View Stadium!
We Old Farts don’t talk about that Cowboys game. Even 40 years later, it still pisses me off.
do you remember how quiet the stick was after that game…..thank you preston riley to this day i can close my eyes and see #85 drop that onside kick
Yeah but I won’t put that all on him any more than I put last year on number 10. There were a lot of reasons the Cowboys won that day. Our coaching got too conservative too early in the 4th quarter, and could not respond when Staubach captured the momentum. We kept giving them the ball after failing to move it and run out the clock, and they kept scoring. Also we had a banged up secondary by the end of that game. Some guys were out, and some more probably would have been if there had been anyone else left.
I was 11. Only time I can remember crying about a football game, lol. I was not around for ’57, and after ’72, it’s mostly just an unhappy blur until Walsh arrived.
Old Coach-deadly silent.
One doesn’t chat at a funeral. :(
Amen.
Gotta say I have alot of Favorite moments at the stick, But the Owens catch, and the 02 Comeback. Gotta be my 2 Fave, closely followed by The Catch 3 last season. Havent felt that kind of emotion at the stick since 02. It was a looong wait.
MM NFL mock draft, Fleener goes to Cleveland and we pick up a guard from Wisconsin, not sexy but needed.
http://www.csncalifornia.com/football-san-francisco-niners/niners-talk/Maiocco-NFL-mock-draft?blockID=692726&feedID=2539
Eh, Zeitler is a nice pick, but 30 is a little high for him based on where most draft reports have him.
@Jack:
Zeitler is a nice pick, but 30 is a little high for him based on where most draft reports have him
Whose draft reports?
By the way, everyone’s favorite film-watcher, Greg Cosell, said on Sirius-XM’s NFL channel the following (paraphrase):
Although DeCastro is the perfect guard for teams that employ power running schemes and is very good at pulling, Zeitler appears to be more athletic.
The Niners employ power running schemes with puling.
Sorry for bothering you Sir Genius. Most of the reports have him as a 1-2 guy originally at the top of Round 2 but he is trending up.
The run game at Wisconsin is almost a mirror of what the 49ers do with the pulling, etc. It isn’t a sexy pick but very solid.
Conservative to the max.
Totally agree Grant. This team needs more weapons on offense, especially in the passing game. They are still very thin at receiver and need to address that area.
I like what Zeitler can do, but field goals won’t cut it this year.
Exactly.
I like what Zeitler can do, but field goals won’t cut it this year.
I assume the thinking would be that Zeitler can help the running game produce on third down and keep the pass rush off of the QB, both of which will lead to more touchdowns.
Sir Genius, only one more week to go. Seems as though you are a fan of this pick….
@Jack:
No strong opinion either way.
So why do you keep replying to my comments? Bored?
Jack
Your reply above makes no sense at all. Especially since you go around calling him a genius.
@Jack:
Because you seem to put thought into your comments and willing to consider ideas other than your own.
When I saw the comment about Zeitler going to the 49ers in Maiocco’s mock, it seemed like the appropriate place to mention Cosell’s observation. Then, I didn’t understand why you (and Grant) think that improving the o-line play won’t help with the red zone problems, or the third down problems for that matter.
I also believe that first round o-linemen have a lower rate of failure than do first round WRs. I don’t know if Zeitler is the guy, but none of the WRs likely to be available at 30 strike me as good value. If one of the DTs or pass rushers slipped through, I would prefer him to the WRs.
I also could get behind drafting Fleener, but am not confident he will make it to 30.
“Then, I didn’t understand why you (and Grant) think that improving the o-line play won’t help with the red zone problems, or the third down problems for that matter. ”
Because claude,
Grant thinks the QB makes the OL and WR’s great. So why make changes there? Just change the QB and the crappy Niner OL pass protection magically solves itself. And our WR’s are suddenly wide open. All of them. So many in fact the QB has to decide which one to throw it to.
Thanks for the clarification Claude. I like Zeitler, in my first mock a few weeks ago I thought the 49ers should trade up for him in Rd 2, because at that time that was where he was projected to go. I think the Ravens will take him at 29 if Konz is off the board. He can replace Grubbs immediately at left guard and then transition over to center in a year or two when he retires.
I would really like to see Kilgore take that guard spot so they can focus on other areas. I think Cleveland will take Richardson, and add a WR with the pick at 22.
Fleener would be sweet, but my gut is telling me that it isn’t going to happen…it is too obvious of a selection, and Baalke/Harbaugh look at guys from a totally different perspective than it seems any other team does.
@Jack:
I would really like to see Kilgore take that guard spot so they can focus on other areas.
So would I. But I don’t see how they can be reasonably confident he can do it until they see him in practice, which won’t happen before next Thursday.
@Claude,
I hear you. They watched the guy practice every day last year so I am pretty sure they know what they have in Kilgore. Their actions in the draft will tell us what they really think of him.
They watched the guy practice every day last year so I am pretty sure they know what they have in Kilgore.
Point taken. Then again, whatever they saw wasn’t enough to get him on the field in place of Chilo Rachal. Hopefully, he has muscled up.
Please excuse while I go TIMslap the Saints fan who insists on trolling this blog.
I know it’s completely off subject, but I really wish we would have drafted Aaron Rodgers instead of Alex Smith. The 10th ranked receiver on this list is better than the 1st if he’s got Rodgers throwing to him and the 1st has Smith.
O/G is a need at the moment. Kilgore is getting plenty of love but he will need to dominate come TC. Even if he does dominate and get’s the starting nod he will still need adequate backup.
Evan Silva: Kendall Wright’s stock is plummeting to the third round http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/7425/kendall-wright
Wow – that is a harsh review.
Blackmon and Floyd I think are both being over-rated in this years draft just because they are the “best” prospects at the position. But I think they should be mid to late first round picks. They aren’t as good as Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, AJ Green, Julio Jones.
I don’t even think either is a guarantee to be a great player. Blackmon reminds me of Crabtree. Good possession type receiver, but in the NFL I don’t think he will be a reliable downfield target. He’s not that big or fast. He gets separation in the short to medium routes through strength and the ability to get to top speed quickly. On deeper balls the DBs will have time to recover. Now there is nothing wrong with being a very good possession style receiver, but to me that isn’t worthy of a top 10 pick. Floyd is similar in a many ways. He’s a bit bigger than Blackmon, but the weird thing is he doesn’t play as big or strong. I think Floyd may be a bit of a bust. The various off field issues don’t help either.
And I think many of the guys being considered as late first round WRs are being over-rated too. Guys like Randle and Hill. Randle I’m really not that impressed with – physically he’s very gifted (big, fast, etc) but he just looks to me like a guy that will frustrate the heck out of a coach because they can’t figure out why he isn’t as productive in games as he is during practice. Not a guy that comes up big when you need him to. Hill probably has the potential of a 1st rounder, but he’s a guy that will need some coaching. He should be a 2nd rounder, but for an amazing combine. Kendall Wright should probably be a late 1st/ early 2nd rounder based on production and what shows up on film, but as Grant’s link suggests his showing leading up the draft has been very disappointing. And don’t get me started on Jeffery. He reminds me of JJ Stokes, and that is not a fond memory…
The real strength of this years WR crop is the quality mid round talent available. Guys like Sanu (though he may end up getting over-drafted too), Juron Criner, Greg Childs (my draft crush – hope the 49ers take him), Jarius Wright, Joe Adams, Brian Quick, AJ Jenkins, Marvin Jones (who I think will turn out to be a really good WR – probably a #2 WR but very productive), Nick Toon, Rishard Matthews, TY Hilton, Devon Wylie, Ryan Broyles – all of these guys I think would easily be late 2nd through to early 4th round picks in most years drafts, but this year a few of those guys will likely fall into later round. There’s a few others as well. And I think a few of these guys will end up being more productive than Blackmon, Floyd, Hill, Randle, K. Wright or Jeffery.
Well said
@Scooter
Good post and great analysis
Great post Scooter. Do you feel the WR in this years’ draft are sort of interchangeable? They all seem like “just a guy” to me.
Brian Quick is a very interesting prospect,steps out of the pack for me-and has moved up on the boards in the last month or so-Streeter in the later rounds as well.
I think there are a lot of WRs that will make good complimentary receivers in the right offenses. Some definite big play potential as well. But noone jumps out to me as hands down, legitimate top 5 WR in NFL, that will consistently produce 75+ catch, 1,200+ yard seasons. It kind of suits the 49ers though as I think Harbaugh is after a bunch of WRs that really compliment each other, without having a true #1 guy. All about getting everyone involved and creating good matchups, and taking advantage of mismatches.
@Scoot
Yeah, some of the guys you mentioned in the previous comment will play in NFL, but not sure they all fit into SFs system; thinking of the smurfs.
I’m ok with Randle but not too excited. Intruiged by but wary of Hill. Quick looks pretty good. I want to like Childs but I read he couldn’t stay healthy.
DS:
“I’ve written many times that I don’t grade by stats, but somehow AES and others keep thinkng I do. They keep trying to pigeon-hole me to “What if MC gets1300 yards and 10 TD’s, will that make you happy?”
No. Since stats don’t win games, I want to see things that win games.”
No DS, i’ve never tried to pigeon-hole anyone on this blog. And the only thing i’ve mentioned in regards to MC is that he improved his numbers last season as well as becoming the teams leading receiver. I can respect your position that numbers and stats don’t mean anything to you. I’ve never been big on numbers either because they don’t always tell the whole story.
My contention is this; Why do you continue to bash MC as if his contributions throughout the year don’t mean anything? Yes, he had poor numbers in the playoffs (especially against the Giants), but so did Alex, and yet you treat any critique of Alex like sacrilege. You come to Alex’ defense when someone brings up his past misgivings, but are quick to throw MC under the bus for a couple of bad games.
So here it is one more time DS; ARE YOU ALL IN AS A TEAM SUPPORTER? OR ARE YOU ONLY SELECTING A FEW PLAYERS TO SUPPORT?
If you are all in, then let the MC bashing go. If you post another MC bash in the future you’ve answered the question very clearly.
It’s TEAM, or NOTHING AT ALL, as a Faithful.
Take your stand…
+65,ooo
Just quit living off numbers/stats from pi$$ poor regimes. Just count the stats from JH regime day one moving forward…case closed!!
Errr…wrong.
Look at my post to ribico/jack earlier.
I’m not mad about a few bad games. “Bad” is very kindly putting it. MC had almost as many drops as catches. Jack thinks Nicks/Cruz are of similar skill. Nicks/Cruz, how many catches/drops did they have in the playoffs? That is a difference. One that seperates MC from Nicks/Cruz.
MC attitude is why I am on his case. If you act like that and are not the best, I’m going to slam you. Just because you wear that uniform does not give you the right to be a jerk.
If anything, you will be judged more harshly wearing that uniform over anything else. The Niners to me are like Camelot. Their players are “The Knights of the Roud Table.” And MC has inherited the position of Sir Lancelot. And he has acted more like the evil Morgana trying to undermine Camelot and the King.
And you seem to think that ONLY MC could have done what he did for this team. I don’t. On Bleacher Report, a supposed former NFL scout rated MC as the 42′nd best WR in the NFL. That means that there are 9 WR’s who are #2′s and better than our best. And this offense suits him best. Know what the cons were? Way too many drops. No skill to get open. And I’d add bad attitude.
And look for MC bashings I made in the season. Good luck. You won’t find many. And none after my agreement to give him this one year. I did. He did/said what he did. All without worrying about you or me I assure you.
I’ve also said that had AS acted like MC, I wouldn’t have supported him. You either have selective memory if you don’t recall me writing that, or you need to see a Neurologist. Because I’ve written it a ton. Act like a jerk, you will be treated as one. Act with nobility, you will be treated nobly. Doubt me? Look what KW did/said. Look at how I think of him. I am consistent. Same rules for everybody. Dorsn’t mean I’m against dropping him. But I won’t bash him. Sad that you don’t recognize that.
@DS94
Wow you’re talented. It takes some special talent to write so much yet say so little. You should run for office.
I’ve also said that had AS acted like MC, I wouldn’t have supported him……..ds
Just a quick question DS. If I may? So you supported Smith when he sucked because he was a nice guy and not a “jerk?”I thought fans rooted and boooo’d for play on the field, not the personality of the players?
@Nick
I’ve challenged you before to do the following:
Edit my post to where everything I wrote is present. All examples are kept. And, try to keep it in understandable with decent sentence stucture. No BS numbering system. See how much shorter you get it.
But, you didn’t last time. Because you can’t. Your ego sure didn’t get in the way. Maybe your whining about my post length is just too long for your twitter world mind to comprehend. The fact that you have never posted any long posts about your opinion on a player in all the years you have been here tells me something about you. You only cover superficial things. Nothing of real thought. Only what comes to mind. No growth of ideas from start to finish. Just…nothing.
So, can you do it? Come on. I’ll give you nothing if you do.
DS, Don’t bring me up in your arguments with others, especially if you are going to say I said something that I didn’t.
I never said that Crabtree was of similar skill as Cruz/Nicks. I said you need to stop acting like Smith dealt with an over abundance of drops, when the drop percentages for the 49ers are very similar to that of the team which just won the Super Bowl.
Argue with others all you want, but keep my name out of it….
Under your skin a bit, huh Jack? That wasn’t very hard.
And you were the one comparing stats of drops and catches and such between the players. Not me. You said MC and those two are just about equal in drop %. I asked you how many great catches did each make and how many times did they make big plays/times those WR ‘s made EM look good next to the times MC made AS look good, and your response was….you guessed it…They have the same drop rate!
Not a shocking reply. You never do move on. Just stuck in neutral all the time spinning your tires. Won’t open your eyes and consider other things/options/questions. I try to ask you questions that deviate ever so slightly from the original question, and you don’t reply to them. It’s a pattern I’ve seen in your writing.
@md
“Just a quick question DS. If I may? ”
Yes. It is a public blog, and to my knowledge I have not told you that I won’t converse with you. So of course you are welcome to ask.
And basically, yes. If AS acted like a jerk and pointed fingers at everybody else after he stank after a big game, and there was history of him acting like a jerk pretty much before he even became a Niner and held out and such, then yes. I would have said to bash him.
“I thought fans rooted and boooo’d for play on the field, not the personality of the players?”
Yes. They do. I boo and cheer the plays. Not the players. Unless of course they are jerks, then I will unleash hell on them.
That does not mean I don’t believe in evaluating players and looking for better players. After all, if I was as AES suggested, how could I ever want to get rid of any player ever? After all, I can’t want/know if anybody is better if I don’t compare them to other players, now can I?
No. I will evaluate players and resign, cut, pick up new FA’s and draft accordingly. That in no way gives me the green light to bash and call the guy names if he is a decent person. Just because he can’t do the job to my satisfaction does not mean I have the right to be mean to him. I simply have to cut him and move on. No need for any hateful remarks.
I start out assuming everybody does their best. Sometimes it just isn’t good enough. So, players are cut/not resigined, etc. But no need to be a jerk to somebody who isn’t a jerk. How does that make the team or yourself better? You aren’t teaching them a lesson. And quite likely going to make them become a jerk after your actions towards them.
In the case of AS, I have no idea how he isn’t a number one jerk after the way the media and fans have treated him. I feel no shame in admitting that I would be a jerk if I had gone thru a similar experience for 7 years of my life.
No DS, cool as a cucumber. The conversation was about you making the excuse for Alex that he suffers from so many drops, so I showed you the number of drops that the WR from the best team in the league had.
Sure, Cruz and Nicks had more yards, TD’s and great catches, but they also have a guy who has won 2 Super Bowls throwing them accurate passes, while ours have a guy who no one else in the league wanted when they all had a shot at him. Put either of those 2 on the 49ers and their numbers would be no better than any of our receivers…
That is your opinion Jack. Not a fact.
And what makes you think MC would be a starter for the Giants at all? Or that EM would want to pass it to him? A guy with his attitude, not going to get a lot of love from a 2 time Super Bowl winning QB I betcha.
If the Niner WR’s were traded for the Giants WR’s, the Niners win. In a landslide. Which last years for this team would be like 14 points. If the QB’s were exchanged, I don’t think EM wins the game for us. He equaled AS. And he got mighty lucky a few times. I think AS wins the game if he is a Giant. EM was saved a few times by some great WR catches in that game. Our WR’s combined had 1 catch. EM would find it a lot tougher going playing QB here than he would in NY. AS would think he died and gone to heaven with the weapons at WR EM had.
DS,
Again, I never said that Crabtree is better than those guys, only your excuse of Smith’s receivers dropping more balls is inaccurate.
And as for this comment, ” I think AS wins the game if he is a Giant”…this shows just how much you sniff Smith’s jock. Our defense destroyed Manning in the 2nd half, yet he found a way to convert 3rd downs time and time again, and then beat us with a TD pass on 3rd down. Meanwhile Smith was throwing gret worm burners….yeah, the Giants win that game with Smith as QB…that is the FUNNIEST FREAKIN THING I HAVE READ ON THIS BOARD EVER!!!!
Your last post of quoting me in a new thread. That was pretty funny. You are mad.
And maybe in the future you wont’ compare those two kinds of players. Those who are good and those who suck. I asked you a ton of times to count the number of great catches those guys had next to MC. You never replied. Only “They have the same drop rate DS.”
“Our defense destroyed Manning in the 2nd half, yet he found a way to convert 3rd downs time and time again, and then beat us with a TD pass on 3rd down. ”
Old Age. It gets to us all. No. That is not what happened at all. The WR’s got open. Giving EM an actual target to throw at. MC and the rest of the WR’s did not. Troy Aikman, a HOF QB said so the whole game. And AS did get the snot beat out of him all year long. Did you actually watch or listen to the games? Yet he didn’t go stupid at any point and make stupid mistakes due to the pressure.
EM saw in that game what AS saw pretty much all year. Or rather all 7 years. No pass protection. No WR’s to throw it too. Collapsing pocket. Get a clue Jack. AS saw that kind of pressure all year long. Yet led the team to 14-4 and 6 comeback wins! Imagine if he had some average pass protection (12-19th rank OL pass protection) and average WR’s(12-19th rank WR’s). What he would/could have done. Add to that the fact it was a new system and compare EM first year in his current system to AS first year in this system, and maybe….AS would have won as a Giant.
But, you know it all Jack. Yep. Everything. So, I can’t argue with you. Disagreeing with you is sacrilege. If Jack says it, it is fact. Black and white.
@NickRow,
LOL on the DS comment, I stopped reading his long blowhole responses when he says that Marino and Fauts are not elite QB’s because they have not won a Superbowl, but he says that Alex Smith is elite because that is what Harbaugh said, he loves sniffing Alex jocks straps he says that Alex manhood smells minty fresh.
Neal
Good for you. Now take the next step and don’t read anybody’s comments at all and leave the blog. As usual you don’t really offer much of actual football input. Just your normal Hating spew.
Grant,
DS wants me to leave this blog, he really hurt my feelings, been in tears all night about this, he has become a real internet bully and I am going to have to contact the internet police once and for all to deal with his criminal behavior.
GD, that’s funny. You guys are a hoot.
Hof + 65,001
@AES
“It’s TEAM, or NOTHING AT ALL, as a Faithful.”
So, you are including Chilo Rachal and Rashawn Woods and Jim Drunkermiller under that as well, right? After all, if I can’t evaluate MC, you can’t evaluate Chilo or Jim Drunkermiller.
Hahaha, nice try DS.
Hey, you don’t have to answer the question. Forget it and let’s just move on.
You guys have to stop. Social retardation is a disease.
If someone argues with a large portion of posters, writes three times as many posts as everyone, writes posts that are three times longer than all other posts, consistently refers to their school yard football experiences as examples on the blog, then maybe, just maybe there are mental issues.
How many people has X-I licious had problems with?
AES
Jordan
49ergirl
MD
Myself (bay)
Neal
Nick
Jack
Spit
Hell, even Hof told DS to quit responding so much. Oh and I loved it when Grant called DS out for posting in volume.
So when someone doesn’t take the hint, maybe there is an issue. ( coo coo, coo coo )
In the words of Ronald Reagan “there you go again.” Back to stats and numbers eh DS?
What stat?
Drops are not even an official stat. And in the actions of Regan, you don’t see what is happening on your watch. The distribution of wealth. In this case I gave you my answer and you act like I didn’t.
By the way the drop thing has nothing to do with his attitude. Which is what I really have a problem with.
If you read my post, you’d have seen my focus was on attitude. And a few sentences flat out stated that. No hidden agenda here.
The drops had to do with not making big plays in big moments in big games. Something I want in all players/positions. If you don’t do that, don’t be shocked if you are cut. And you don’t get 14-4 OT loss in Title game if you don’t have a lot of such players/positions doing that. WR though, none of them. Had there been 1, we win. MC gets paid a lot. He is the #1 WR. I’m going to evaluate him to do what VD did. He didn’t. Then he blames others for not being as good as they are? Not going to go over well with me at all.
I guess it won’t do me any good to hold my breath on you answering my questions. Very evasive when you want to be aren’t you?
Don’t worry DS, I won’t ask again, your silence says it all.
No other stat. And the attitude is the answer you are looking for AES.
@Grant
Time for a new thread …
Ya ! how about an article on A. Smith, it will surely bring lots of anti smith haters on the board..
Oh No the new Bandwagon of Clowns are coming. Manila your a typing headache. And PS your comebacks are those of a 50 year old still pounding away in Moms basement. Just so you know!
In case you missed it, here’s Baalke on the RG position: “Dan Kilgore certainly wants that position. Mike Person certainly wants that position. Alex Boone certainly wants that position. There’s options. There’s still a draft. There’s still free agency. If you go back to Baltimore, if you go back to how they built that offensive line, two of the guys that started for them for the majority of the season weren’t even on their roster starting training camp. There’s a lot of things that can happen between now and then. We’re going to continue to look at every option available to us.”
Sounds like a guy who’s making excuses for not having a starting right guard, why else bring up comparisons to other teams. With Kilgore slotted to become center that really only leaves Boone and Person and both would have to be converted to the position.
Jason Brown would be my first guess, not choice just guess if we sign a free agent.
Faithful,
Don’t over think it. Kilgore starts at guard for the next two year or two while they develop Person and Boone. When Goodwins contract is up Kilgore slides to center and they replace him with Person/Boone.
This allows Kilgore to get used to the speed of the game without having to make all the calls that a center is responsible for, and they can develop their own guys.
This is the same path the 49ers took with Eric Heitmann, another low round pick back when Newberry was the center.
Just don’t know how you guys are penciling in Kilgore to start when he spent most of last season inactive.
Hearing Baalke list off the three guys on the team that ‘could’ play right guard just doesn’t fill me with a lot of confidence for that position. Rather then be unsure or have options to be considered I’d rather have a proven starter at the position either in college or in the NFL.
So we’ll just assume Kilgore who was active for 3 whole games and played in only one according to this:http://www.nfl.com/player/danielkilgore/2495299/profile is ready to start at right guard? That’s one hell of an assumption.
How is this guy better then a college prospect that spent 3 or 4 years starting at the position?
@faithful
So was the idea of getting Aldon Smith. He had few starts and was injured his last year.
They were right about him. So, they have precedence of doing this well.
I hear ya Faithful…we’ll see how it plays out.
A kid that still did play 9 games even in his injury shortened season and he was a high enough prospect even on those brief stars to warrant a first round pick…and you’re comparing him to Daniel Kilgore a 5th round guard from the power house Appalachian State who spent 3 whole games active playing in 1.
Yeah, that’s pretty much the same situation.
You never know if a player is ready until they are pressed into action. I think what Baalke is trying to say is that its not as glaring a need as is being made out in some circles. They have a few guys already on the roster that they want to see compete for and try and win the job, but if they don’t look like they are ready then other options are still available. I fully expect that if they don’t draft a guard early, they will sign a vet to add to the competition as well.
I think it’s also interesting that he played, not started in the first game he was active but clearly didn’t do enough to warrant even playing in the next two games but again we’ll just assume he’s our starter or that he has some magic potential that they just didn’t feel like using last season.
No faithful
I am comparing a kid who was evaluated by the same people as the ones who picked Aldon Smith.
And had a full year of NFL coaching. That is better than 1 year of college coaching.
The situation is similar in that they were both without a lot of game experience and not a sure thing. Kilgore may or may not live up to the expectations some have of him here.
That is what I was comparing. Not a 1st vs. 5th round pick.
And none of us have anything remotely viable to say about how Kilgore has played in practice/meeting rooms/etc. We have to trust TB/JH. And so far, they have not forced me to lose my faith.
With Baalke making those statements it is quite clear that the RG position is wide open.
The *only* thing that bothers me about TB is that he is a BParcells disciple. Not what I would call WCO or even hyprid WCO or power running WCO. Oh well, as long as the great JH has input all good!!!!
I think Larry Krueger is having a 49ers draft special tonight from 7-9 on KNBR radio. http://www.knbr.com
Thanks Tim!
DS94everXev says:
April 19, 2012 at 7:12 pm
“No other stat. And the attitude is the answer you are looking for AES.”
No DS, this is not the question I asked of you earlier. Go ahead and work your evasive magic, but you are not fooling me.
All’ cool DS, you’ve made your position very clear.
@AES
Maybe if you quoted the question and stuck to the same thread, that would help me out instead of playing guessing games as to what you are talking about. Surely you understand how hard it is to keep track of everything when it is on 5 separate threads.
You asked me about why I am so hard on MC. I answered you. A lot of times. You want me to give you stats of what I want to see. You don’t get it. I don’t care about stats.
My position is quite clear. MC is a jerk. He was before he came here. He didn’t want to be here. He threw his QB under the bus. He played poorly. I am not happy with him as our #1 WR. I don’t think he will take a demotion. His ego is so inflated. Thus, I think it is best to likely cut him when he fails to be the best WR.
DS,AES:
Stats can often be used by both sides of an issue to prove either side you like. In a real academic debate the participants often switch sides and must argue just as enthusiastically for the other side than the one they were originally on. Its easy to find stats that show Alex and Crabs both suck and easy to find stats to show he and Crabs both are really good.If you pick and choose stats you can prove almost anything.
I much prefer to judge football players by watching them perform on the field…the old eye test has served me well !
Stats are usefull,yes,but if you quote some and leave others out they can become very deceptive.But if you watch a player do his job in games,then that gives a much more clear picture imho.
AES/Tim, it isn’t about stats with DS, he just doesn’t like Crabtree because:
A). He is a jerk
B). He doesn’t toe the company line
C). He held out instead of getting tutored by Isaac Bruce his rookie season.
D). He has missed preseason every year.
E). He is overpaid for his production
It’s a personality style conflict…
@Tim
While I am certain you and I would see different things in some players, that too is how I judge players. Just watch them. Know their situation. Then evaluate them. Doesn’t make you/me right or wrong. But I find myself coming to the same conclusions if I look at stats as I would if I don’t. So, why bother?
But DS,Crabs only followed the direction of the expert he hired to get him a good contract. You or I or anyone would be a fool if we hired an experet to do something that we didn’t know how to do and then didn’t follow his advice on how to get a contract from an NFL team.
Crabs actually handled that mess with class and didn’t even say anything in the press during the whole time. He came here and worked hard and still is working hard. The only thing that makes you mad imho is that after Alex played in such a way that Crabs had no hope of making a pro bowl oe even getting his contract incentives met and paid,Crabs did makie that one comment about not knowing who the stareting QB was. Alex was not even signed yet,so technically Crabs was correct but he was just being cute and should have kept his mouth shut …that one time.
Crabs has not been a Diva or primadonna or whatever since he has been a Niner. As I said he works hard and makes plays ,when he is healthy. He is a team player and except in one instance I can remember he has not waved his arms and called Alex out on the field when Alex failed to see him wide open or when Alex threw over his head or at his feet. He has shown class and been a team guy !
BUT I do agree that he is not a #1 receiver. But I believe he could be a really good #2 or a great #3.
(this was not intended as an Alex bashing comment by me so don’t take it as one,please ! Just stating the other side of the Crabs issue for balance).
@Jack
“He doesn’t toe the company line”
Isn’t that the same thing as JH/TB not doing what MS/MN did? The company line is to not put down teammates in public. MC broke that rule. That is more than “company line”.
But as for the rest of the points, pretty spot on. Except for the fact that he didn’t produce in critical moments anywhere near enough to what I believe is necessary in a #1WR.
: – )
Jack:
Everyone around Crabs says he is a sweet ,shy kid who works very hard and is a team player. Doesn’t sound like a jerk to me.
DS, find me one quote please where Crabtree puts down a teammate.
@Tim
To have the opportunity to learn from a HOF is the opportunity to learn from the best in like a 100 year history of players.
I don’t know what you do for a living. And, really (not tryig to be mean) I could care less. But if you are a scientist, and you can learn from Einstein/Darwin or an actor and the chance to work with Al Pacino, you should be smart enough to know that this does not happen every day.
That you tell your agent “I can learn from Issac Bruce. A first ballot HOF WR. I am the best WR in college history. And I have the perfect situation now. A chance to go from the best at my current level (college) to a chance to learn from the best in what I will do, you get me signed NOW! I know I am great. I know I am going to be a top WR. I can those extra million or two later. But, I can’t just ignore this chance.
If I were an actor, I’d volunteer for free to work with Al Pacino. If I am a scientist, I volunteer to learn from Einstein/Darwin. I’ll live off of food stamps if necessary. No need to think about it for a second.
If you love the job/field, that is what you do. MC didn’t.
Tim, I agree with you. Those 5 bullet points were how DS views him….
…and Bruce was not open to teaching anyone anything,he kept to himself.
…and Crabs was injured and was kept off the field by the team ,not because he didn’t want to be on the field.
… He may be over paid but he was drafted high and in the time before the rookie salary cap and he WAS the leading receiver on the team in 2011 after all . Maybe he would do better if the QB did a better job ??? And I am sure Crabs needs to and is still improving . I hope the QB does too.
…sorry Jack,I was a little slow following you there, DOH !
@Jack
The postgame interview he blamed “others” for not getting him the chance for the ball. Even if he is covered.
He wondered last off season who our QB is. When it was clear that AS would be.
He immediately jumped on the Troy Smith bandwagon.
When reporters ask him about attending minicamps and TC to get chemistry going with AS (even when AS flat out said he needs to have MC here to get chemistry with him) MC just was like “Naaahhh.” Then he went out in Seattle Game 1 Year 2 and looked horrible. The Int return TD was largely on him. He didn’t even try to tackle the guy. He just stood there like an idiot. Which I don’t think he is. But a jerk also does that.
Find me a bunch of quotes where he supports/defends AS Jack. Find me a quote where he places blame for the poor passing attack on himself. Even if he had a great game individually. AS does that. MC does not.
DS:
I have to laugh that you wanted Crabs to have lived on food stamps to come into camp to be taught by a player (Bruce) ,who wouldn’t talk to anyone and was not open to tutoring anyone.
If you hire an expert to get you a good contract then you follow that experts advice because he is supposed to know what he is doing,since he was a top agent. I would argue that he probably hired the wrong agent,since Crabs got the same contract that was offered in July in the end. But Crabs was advised to hire this guy and by the time he realized he was not being represented well by the agent it was too late,the damage was done. Crabs was not the only holdout that year if you will remember,he was just the last of the holdouts to sign. If you blame a kid ,who was ignorant of finance etc,instead of the agent who’s advice he followed to a T,then that is where you and I disagree.
@Tim
Only Bruce’s body broke down. Not his method of preparing for the week. Not the way he handled himself in a professional manner at all times. Not the way he treated his teammates (much better). Not the way he treated the media. Not the way he watched film, and critique himself.
All of these are things that MC could have learned from him. All are things that after 3 years he still sucks at. Imagine if he had come and learn these things. Wouldn’t MC be way better by now?
But he didn’t. And sometimes that train of opportunity only comes once. And MC missed it. Wanting more money than a lot of money he was offered. That looks like a really bad decision now.
He is not a #1 receiver, but he is the best one on the team right now…
DS:
I disagree with your selective memory of Crabs actions. I see most of the incidents you mentioned completely differently from how you interpret them.
Crabs is a hard worker and blocks downfield when he is not the featured receiver.He seems to be a team first guy.
That does not mean he doesn’t care about his status in the League and Pro Bowls and his contract incentives also and that doesn’t mean he wouldn’t like a better QB to get himn that recognition. But I think he has shown class in almost every situation,except the 1 or 2 I mentioned already.
I just think that because of your skewed view of Alex that you feel the need to degrade Crabs to use him as an excuse for some of Alex’s poor performances.
I personally don’t care if Crabs starts or is even on the team,as long as we have someone better to take his place ,so I am NOT in love with Crabs,just being fair imho(same goes for Alex !).
@Tim
Bruce was not a media guy. He was like John Taylor in a way. But nobody ever said a bad word about him. His teammates loved him. And in this instance especially, Bruce would know he is here to tutor MC.
And it didn’t take 4 regular season games for him to finally figure out to get a new guy. The deal could have been done within 24 hours upon MC’s say so. The agent works for the player. Not vice versa.
And to me, I have no idea really how much money $32 million is. Especially out of college. When I worked as a student, I made a whole lot less than that. Like minimum wage. Somebody offers you $32 million or so, and you scoff at that! Bleepity, bleep no!
DS:
You just don’t want to admit that you would have also held out if the expert you hired told you that was the best thing to do . Having Bruce there to possibly rub off on the roolie would and should have been about number 100 on the list of importance. You are grasping at straws imho.
Nice conversation guys !!! Gotta go.
GO NINERS !!! Less than 7 days before the draft !!!
Maybe we talk about that tomorrow instead of the old rehashes ?
Bye .
Well Jack if every other playoff team in the playoffs has a real #1 WR, and we don’t in a passing league, where does that put AS (or EM, or QBx)? Then you want to compare him to other playoff QB’s? Not going to fly with me.
@Tim
See how FG and VD act/talk about AS. That is the standard. That is what you must do. MC does not.
I never said MC does not block well downfield. My theory is that he is so pissed he can’t get open, he gets to beat the crap out of the defender so he likes it.
But the Niners of old (JM/SY) days had to meet 2 qualificaions.
1. Block on run/any pass play you did not catch the ball.
2. Don’t drop it. JR didn’t. But it wasn’t just him. RC, TR, JT, DC, Wilson, etc. If you can’t catch the ball, you weren’t playing. Football is hard enough. You can’t afford to have players out there who drop passes. And you didn’t see drops in the dynasty days.
MC would satisfy 1 of 2. Not 2 of 2. MC would never have been a starter. With or without JR being on the team. As a WR, you need to block and catch. If you can’t do both, you won’t play. And you won’t be a Niner for long.
No Tim. I wouldn’t. I have even volunteered before. So, I know what I would do. Because I have already done it.
Good night Tim!
: – )
“if every other playoff team in the playoffs has a real #1 WR, and we don’t in a passing league, where does that put AS”
It puts him playing behind a great defense that led the league in turnovers, and allowed him to play like he had the previous 2 years. He is the best option for now….
@jack
“He is the best option for now….”
This is the type of comment which says absolutely nothing. The same can be said of any player on any team in any era.
If the team has a better player, they will replace you. Bill Walsh did it a lot. Better to get rid of a player a year early than a year late kind of thinking. If any player stinks it up for long enough, they won’t be stating (if they were starters to begin with). And if they were back-ups, they will be unemployed before long.
DS, if the team was able to sign the QB they first targeted Smith would not have been re-signed. There are no other options that are better out there in free agency so he is the best for now…
The signing of Johnson, at least gives them someone else to compete with. I don’t know much about Johnson, other than he played great for Harbaugh in college and struggled when playing for some bad Tampa teams.
It will also be interesting to see how Kaepernick has developed. And you are right, “If the team has a better player, they will replace him.”
Say what you want Jack.
But the Niners and AS have come to terms on a contract/renegotiation now a total of 4 times.
4 times they could have dropped AS. 4 times they chose not to. 4 times AS could have chosen to leave. 4 times he chose not to.
That is not just luck. Or if it is, it is unheralded in the history of sports.
Jack you are 100% correct.
DS9 says this about the NFC Championship Game, ” I think AS wins the game if he is a Giant.”
WOW Jack.
You can cut and paste. I already wrote that. Why don’t you go ahead and refer to the whole post.
Or just reply to the post.
You are hot and mad. I got to you.
:- )
I had not seen that from you before…and quite frankly it is one of the most stupid things I have read in a long time…and I read most of your posts so I have seen some stupid stuff…
“Put the lotion in the basket already”
thas funny
BigP
Go to hell. I hate you. Don’t you get it?
Stupid is as stupid does Jack.
And you were oh so stupid for starting a new thread with that quote. Guess how often I start a new thread doing such a thing? NEVER. Considering how often you like to point out I post, that means something.
It was very 23J’ish of you. No respectable blogger does what you did.
Thanks for the advice Forrest.
“Go to hell… Stupid is as stupid does”…
Are you like 5 years old or something?
Really.
…
Simple messages are most easily understood Grumpy.
BS,
“Go to hell. I hate you. Don’t you get it?”
Lol, it’s so easy to get you riled up. The freak show doesn’t like being exposed. Lol.
Alex DID help the Giants win that game LOL. (just a joke I couldn’t resist,since you set me up so well ,just having fun,like we should all be doing on a site dedicated to talking about the team we love !).
Actually TIM, MC helped NYG win that game. He was absolutely worthless and that is why JH/TB signed RM and MM in the offseason. (Just a joke I couldn’t resist,since you set me up so well ,just having fun,like we should all be doing on a site dedicated to talking about the team we love !).
@ Hov
lol
Actually it was Ted Ginn who helped NY win by getting hurt and not playing…that wimp ; )-
sorry for the spelling Hof
No harm Tim. If I had a problem with you writing that, I’d have a problem with you. I don’t.
@hof
Now. You are ignoring the one worthless catch he had. It was on 3rd down no less. Our favorite down of conversation. And MC didn’t do a JR and get the YAC necessary to get the first down.
@jack
For a guy who was so pissed off about anybody not discussing about Williams actions a few weeks back, your post here is in bad taste.
Actually it wasnt AS fault or MC fault or even Ginns fault, it was all my fault, three hours before game time I fell and broke my leg and fractured my shoulder so I was not able to be there and yell for my team. The air that would of been omitted from my loud mouth would of carried onto the field which in turn would of guided Alex passes and would of scared Crabs into catching the ball and hell it might of even made Ginn healthy during the game. So if you guys want to blame someone it was ME.
It was all Grant’s fault! He jinxed them with his comment on the game blog about how the Ravens loss would help the 49ers prepare for NE ; )-
Now I feel better. Takes a load of my mind forgot about Grants statement. Thanks for the reminder.
Now we have a clear culprit.
Way to ‘take one’ for the team underwater (lol)!
Jack Hammer says:
April 19, 2012 at 8:13 pm
“DS, find me one quote please where Crabtree puts down a teammate.”
DS is not answering questions today…. to busy pushing the bash MC agenda.
I have my memory. And a lack of supportive quotes AES.
I did answer that question by the way. Please read the threads before posting. I am not going to spend my time looking up things I know exist. Just like I don’t need to prove the earth is round. I know it.
Forgive me if I missed your answer DS.
Can you please refresh my memory?
My questions from 4:34 pm: “So here it is one more time DS; ARE YOU ALL IN AS A TEAM SUPPORTER? OR ARE YOU ONLY SELECTING A FEW PLAYERS TO SUPPORT?”
Your answer please:
@AES
My 5:09 post. Just below your question. And a very short reply to your next attempt basically saying the same thing. Attitude/behavior.
@AES
He/she dodges questions better than a politician.
The “it” nick who can’t read dodges actually reading posts.
Look further down. Or up. I answered the question. Where is your “edit” of my post? It actually involves some thinking, so I don’t think you’ll handle it very well.
P.S. The answer is MC’s attitude sucks. Not going to defend a guy who is a jerk. Not a player or fan. Simply being a fan/player does not give you the green light to act like MC has.
@DS
Here’s a summary of your posts in two words: bull $hit.
Here’s the question: Are you a 49er fan or an Alex Smith fan?
Dodge that one.
Nick
“bull $hit.”
That second word describes you personally quite well.
Reading comprehension issues again Nick. I did answer it. Go to school. Should not have dropped out in midway thru the 1st quarter in Kindergarten.
I am what you are not. A good person. Dodge that.
Take a hint nick. AES is satisfied with the answer. You are just an a-hole who can’t see beyond his own selfish self. I am not whatever horrible retch you claim to be.
I am a Niner fan. What are you? Nothing.
Take a hint. This discussion is over with now.
Mr. Crabs will reveal what he is made of this year. Moss/Manningham should sharpen his skills. I believe he will have a career year. 1,000yds 8TDs
Wow, we’ll see …certainly would be nice.
I agree, Razor. And contrary to the polar sensibilities here, I think Alex cuts loose this year as well. Both guys set new standards of excellence, both guys to the Pro Bowl. That’s my bet, and my best guess.
Jack Hammer says:
April 19, 2012 at 8:58 pm
“if every other playoff team in the playoffs has a real #1 WR, and we don’t in a passing league, where does that put AS”
“It puts him playing behind a great defense that led the league in turnovers, and allowed him to play like he had the previous 2 years. He is the best option for now….”
Don’t forget our record breaking Field-Goal Kicker and great Special Teams play, Hammer.
You forgot the rest of the quote. It went on to say say QB x. Meaning any QB without a true #1 WR. Could be CK, Tolzien, EM, Tom Brady, AR.
Kinda a small detail that completely changes the whole point of the paragraph.
And yes. Having a great ST/D helps any QB as well. Just forgot to add the “any” part. Age. Gets to us all. Minor errors can lead to some very big errors in how you mold your thoughts, or how others perceive them to be.
I am sure JM said that a great defense helped him out. So please take that in consideration. And the years he won the Super Bowl, it was the defense that was really stellar each year that put them over the top.
We really could use a number one WR.
Of course, we really could use a number one QB, too.
All aspects of our anemic passing game are unsatisfactory until they get it done. All should be evaluated and upgraded where possible. “You’re either getting better or you’re getting worse”… so get better.
An interesting article by Sando here:
http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/63331/questioning-how-teams-value-wrs-in-draft
“The top three teams in passing yardage last season — New Orleans, New England and Green Bay — have combined to invest one first-round draft choice in receivers since 2006. ”
Of course, the franchise QBs in those teams have been better/more effective than Smith. But I get the feeling that the Niners won’t be drafting a pass catcher in the first round.
The key thing is, I feel far more comfortable with our ability to evaluate talent than I did two or three or six years ago. I think if they take a receiver, it will be a guy who they have thoroughly checked out. Anyone could still be a bust, but I feel like there is far less chance than we’ve had in a long time.
Yeah, I wonder how much turnover there has been in the scouting department since Scotty left and Baalke took over. The McNolan F.O. had not been adept at finding offensive talent in the mid to later rounds, especially receivers, other than Morgan.
The Ronald Johnson mistake (at the expense of Harbaugh’s own Baldwin) has not exactly increased my confidence in the current F.O.’s talent spotting for receivers in mid- to late rounds. I’m hoping to be proven wrong after this draft.
That’s a good question Mood. Outside of Gore, Vernon and Hunter the 49ers haven’t drafted well at the offensive skill positions over the last 7-8 years. I liked Josh Morgan but he’s still a bit of a question mark.
Chilo Rachal signs one year deal with the Bears.
@Andrew
I think that was reported by a fellow blogger a few blogs back. Yeah. Not shedding many tears to see him go. His stupid block in that Baltimore game negated a TD in a game that was pretty low scoring.
As much as I dislike Rachal I have to defend him here. That was an incredibly ticky-tack call by the ref. Chili barely touched the guy.
@msc
I believe the announcers said something similar. And in a game as rough and tough as that one ended up being, I bet there were other plays which the refs “let go.” If Chilo were a rookie, I’d give him a break. But he isn’t. He has started a lot of NFL games. And a vet needs to know the rules inside and out, and needs to follow them. Chilo didn’t. It cost us big time.
OK, so if we play the Bears we blitz ‘em up the middle.
Tommy Streeter, University of Miami 6′-5″ 219 lbs runs a 4.4 40. He may not be top a 10 pass catcher in this draft but he could be available as a fifth round steal and develop into the next megatron. He is very raw and doesn’t run a lot of routes, (much like a Stephen Hill). Why spend a first round pick on a WR that has to “learn” how to run routes when you can get WR in the 5th round and teach him how to run routes?
49ers should draft the best player on the board at 30 regardless of position, or trade down for more picks. Trading down gives them more opportunity to mine gold in late rounds. I believe Baalke plans to attempt this first, and draft a player in round one only if he can’t get another team to work a deal with.
I think Baalke is more likely to trade up than down in the first. Based on previous years, 49ers will have a list of guys they see as first round talents (which will likely be less than 32 players), and they will try to come away with one of them. That’s what happened with Joe Staley (realise this wasn’t Baalke’s decision, but I believe they work off the same philosophy) – traded back into the end of the first round because they saw a guy they graded as a first round talent and great value at the end of the first round. Only trade back if the players they like are gone before #30 and the trade value for moving up is too costly.
I’ve been high on Tommy Streeter for a while now. Like you said, he’s a bit raw, but he showed some flashes last year in Miami. Speaking of the Canes, I also like RB Lamar Miller.
I really like having Harbaugh as the 49ers coach:
Jim Harbaugh, in typically impassioned Jim Harbaugh fashion, told the assembled crowd the 49ers and the City of Santa Clara had “a shovel in one hand and a sword in the other” and were off to build build a “great football cathedral.”
From http://blogs.sacbee.com/49ers/archives/2012/04/red-gold-and-green-49ers-break-ground-on-enviro-concious-stadium.html
8:45 am KNBR:
Jim Harbaugh reiterates his position that Alex Smith is his guy.
That is as close as a confirmation that tell’s me (what many here have already concluded) the battle in TC will be for ‘back-up’ QB between JJ, CK, and perhaps Tolz.
Alex is the imcumbent and any of the above mentioned will need to play out of the world during TC and pre-season to unseat him. I don’t see that happening any time soon.
@AES:
Way to go. By posting that comment, you have pretty much guaranteed that jordan will make an appearance.
Thanks a lot.
@AES
There will be QB competition. AS will win.
Just like there will be competition for OLB. Brooks and Aldon Smith will win.
Nothing is any different from before. The best players will start. The best QB right now is AS.
Gotcha DS.
@AES
Did you ever read the answer to your question?
Not asking if you liked it. Only if you read it.
The competition will be skewed toward AS because he’ll get the most snaps in TC. This is put up or shut up time for AS. He’ll have no more excuses. Let’s see if AS can graduate from game manager to game changer. Somehow, I have my doubts. That’s why it’s great to have JJ, CJ, and Tolzien on the team.
Nice quote from Harbaugh about a shovel in one hand and a sword in the other. No doubt taken from the book of Nehemiah in the Bible.
Yeah…it’s somewhere in the back…
Don’t let 23J get under your skin. He’s welcomed to voice his opinion like the rest of us. But you are rattling his cage (lol).
Don’t let 23J get under your skin.
It’s not so much that jordan gets under my skin, but that he is such a hypocritical, condescending prick.
And a welcher. Don’t forget the welching thing.
Welcher boy. He isn’t a man/woman/adult if he breaks his promise.
He did.
Wow, tell me how you really feel Claude, hahaha.
Hey DS,
how come you call yourself X ilicious on an Xbox site? It’s not match.com bro, it’s a gaming site… Just saying.
interesting read on barrows blog about bruce irvin DE/OLB from w. virginia
Initially I liked this guy but the video footage shows speed but not much more -raw project with character issues.MEH!
DS, haven’t you said that you don’t respond to anything 23J? Just walk by and leave it alone dude, why instigate?
@AES
I don’t. No need. 2 subjects:
I hate AS
I hate those who like AS.
Why read any of it? I don’t. And if he kept his word, or if he left on his own or was banned, I wouldn’t talk about him.
@ds9 you may be right about smith being the best QB on the 9ers right now. but are’nt you rooting for CK to be better than smith if you like the level smith is at right now and CK was better the 9ers would be a better team
@old coach
I think AS as he is now can lead this team to the Super Bowl. He came as close as you can come.
By your logic, I can just as easily say JJ/CK/Tolzein/other guy as well.
I think the Niners were dealt the worse hand of any team in the NFL last year due to the lockout. New Coaching staff. New system. I mean JH had to be a little devious and give AS the playbook when he wasn’t even on the team!
AS will be better this year. I won’t give out stats and say his passing yards will be 10% higher or anything. I just think he will be better. And if the Niners got themselves their Jerry Rice, AS is plenty good to lead us to another 4 Super Bowls in the next decade.
CK may not even make it out of TC as Niner. He and JJ will be going at it, and Tolzein, he can pick stuff up really quick. An article on sfgate recently talked about that. And unlike JJ/AS, Tolzein is a smart kid who will be growing up around smart coaches. CK is a wild card. He may be good, or he could really lose you a lot of games. Tolzein at this point to me anyway is the safer bet as to who will be starting QB material.
That does not mean I think we dump AS if either QB is starting QB material. By that time, I imagine AS will have led us to a Super Bowl win. And the last team to dump their Super Bowl QB were the Ravens. The football Gods rained hell down on them for a long time for doing that. And AS is better than Trent Dilfer.
I think the Niners will be (and already are) the most complete team in the NFL. Just need to add a real #1 WR who demands 2-teams or else you are stupid, and this offense (every other 10 positions) would be sooooo much better instantaneously. Even the OL which I criticize a lot here would benefit. And I think they would benefit from it even more than AS or any other QB. They are always facing blitzes and stacked boxes. AS is actually one of the best QB’s against the blitz beaus he is so smart. But if we had that Wallace (seem unlikely now) no team would blitz us like last year. Put VD out wide, you need to double him. Need to double Wallace. How many defenders are left?
Everything would flow so nicely with that great #1 WR.
my point is’nt that CK is or might be better than AS its that i’m rooting for him to be better because if he is that means the team will be better and thats all that counts. i do’nt give a damn if its AS or CK or JJ or ST i always hope somebody better is around the corner
Nicely said Coach…
I guess the horse isn’t dead…the hoof is still moving. LMAO!
@DS
Nice post; I have been feverishly racking my brain, working backwards as to how a defense would defend against the niner offense since the acquisition of MM and RM + the addition of a Stud WR in the draft. After several beers, I, as a former defensive player, have come to the conclusion that there are too many options in the niner’s bag to cover. With all of the weapons that we now possess, the only way a team could defend, is the NO practice game last year….Bring the house…EVERY play.
Yes, it tickles me that it comes down to that, but unless you occupy the receivers and RB’s with blocking, I really don’t see how they stop us. We might necessitate some 5-4-2 defensive schemes. I’m hoping that some one of you will bring me back to earth, sanely….just how would you design defense without loading the box? No snipers in the press box!
@oregoniner
You sound happy. Why come back down?
Stay up there a long as you like.
: – )
Football Outsiders has released its analysis of broken tackles given up by defensive players:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2012/broken-tackles-2011-part-ii
49ers-centric interesting nuggets:
The 49ers’ defense tied with the Giants for the lowest rate of broken tackles (3.8 %).
Navorro Bowman allowed 11 broken tackles last year, which was tied for the tenth most in the league. Because he had such a high number of tackle attempts, however, his broken tackle percentage of 8.8 was considerably lower than everyone else (but one) on the list.
Patrick Willis gave up only 2 broken tackles last year. His broken tackle percentage of 2.8 was seventh best among linebackers.
Carlos Rogers (1 broken tackle) had the sixth best broken tackles percentage (2.3) among defensive backs. The author noted that last year at least Rogers displayed a rare combination of good coverage + good tackling.
That’s good stuff. Harbaugh can outthink his opponents but he doesn’t try to overcomplicate things. The game still mostly comes down to fundamentals. Blocking and tackling.
The front seven is so fundamentally sound. Whitner and Goldson occasionally go for the big hit without wrapping up but we hardly ever see the DL or LB do that.
3 months until training camp *chomp chomp*
Does anything ever change on this blog besides Alex and everyone either defending or ripping the guy? Seems like its the same old a-holes debating in circles, whats up America, nothing else going on?
@FDM:
There doesn’t seem to be much in the way of argument this morning, but then again, the day is young.
Of course, I suspect that I am one of the a-hole debaters you refer to, so my judgment may not be the best.
I don’t think you were in that group claude.
Also it is Friday.
To be honest with you, to even engage in the Alex Smith debate, pro or con, to me is a joke. I keep checking in once in awhile to see whats up, and lo and behold, its the same people back and forth saying the same thing, thats why I ask, do any of you have anything better to do than repeat the same conversation over and over and over and over……?
@FDM:
There doesn’t seem to be much in the way of argument this morning, but then again, the day is young.
Of course, I suspect that I am one of the a-hole debaters you refer to, so my judgment may not be the best.
@Grant:
I have twice tried to post a comment concerning a Football Outsiders report on broken tackles. The comment didn’t post either time. It doesn’t even show up with a “awaiting moderation” notice.
What am I doing wrong? Thanks in advance.
For some reason it got marked as spam, but I unspammed it.
Thanks Grant. You’re a mensch.
Oops, now I am getting the Your comment is awaiting moderation notice.
Now it isn’t. That was a good post – sorry it got delayed.
@Grant:
No problem. Thanks for attending to it.
By the way, there’s a companion piece on broken tackles from the perspective of offensive players:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2012/broken-tackles-2011
It’s not quite as encouraging for the 49ers. As a team, the 49ers ranked 22nd in percentage of plays with broken tackles. Frank Gore has the sixth lowest broken tackle rate among running backs. He broke tackles on only 4% of his touches (a total of 12 BTs) last year. According to the author, that’s the third year in a row that Frank ranked low.
Amusingly, the two players most frequently vilified by commenters on this blog are among the league leaders in broken tackles at their respective positions. Michael Crabtree ranked 1oth among WRs, breaking tackles on 13.7% of his touches (10 total BTs). Alex Smith finished tied for 5th among QBs with 8 total broken tackles last year.
Breaking tackles isn’t really Frank Gore’s strength – he’s not a shifty back nor he is a big, strong back that will run over people. But he is good at getting extra yards after first contact. Always seems to fall forward.
Target and Catch statistics for college WRs and TEs during the 2011 season:
http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2012/1/17/2714286/2011-targets-and-catches
The numbers presented include targets, receptions, catch rate, yards/target, and yards/catch. I haven’t compiled anything on or compared the numbers of the players who might be available to the 49ers or who are members of Grant’s Top Ten because I am lazy, but if anyone is interested in doing so, knock yourself out.
Interesting link Claude. If you rank Grant’s list based on catch percentage it would definitely be different…
1) Justin Blackmon 75.6%
2) Kendall Wright 74.6%
3) Michael Floyd 69.4%
4) Greg Childs 67.7%
5) Coby Fleener 66.7%
6) Ruben Randle 64.4%
7) Jarius Wright 64.1%
8) Alshon Jeffery 55.7%
9) Stephen Hill 51.9%
10) Marvin Jones 50.8%
This is statistic that I actually see very little use for because there are so many variables, ie route types, ability of QB etc.
What I did find interesting was the % targeted by team, and yards per target stat. Interestingly Fleener was targeted only 12.8% of the time, 2nd only to Griff Whalens 20% a low number due to how well Stanford could spread the ball around. In comparison the top % targeted guy, Stephen Hill at 37.2%.
In the yards per target category Fleener ranks 3rd (13.1) behind Hill (15.2) and Marvin Jones (13.6). The lowest in this category was Michael Floyd (8).
@Jack:
Thanks for doing the work.
I agree with you that the catch percentage number is dependent upon numerous factors – QB ability, style of offense, quality of defenses played, etc. -which may make it difficult to compare players. For example, it’s probably not coincidence that Blackmon and Wright both played in Big 12 spread offenses and had high catch percentages, while Randle and Jeffery, who both played in more traditional SEC offenses, had lower catch percentages. It may be that SEC pass defenders are better than Big 12 pass defenders and/or that spread offenses produce higher catch percentages.
But, if you factor/filter for those things, the statistic could be useful. For example, you could use it to compare the Arkansas receivers (J. Wright, Childs, Adams, etc.) because those factors are generally the same for each of them.
For a second example, Randle and Jeffery both play in traditional offenses against SEC defenses (albeit in different divisions). That said, Randle’s catch percentage is noticeably higher than Jeffery’s. In fact, notwithstanding the fact that his QB is supposed to be horrible, Randle’s numbers are better than Jeffery’s across the board, with the single exception of yards/catch on passing downs. I’m not sure exactly what to make of that, but it can’t help Spitblood’s case for Alshon Jeffery.
@ClaudeBalls
That was a good post. Thanks for sharing that link
Here is a nice piece that supports the thinking of Grant and others that there won’t be many spaces for the rookies who are brought in to have an impact. It also drives home how adding Fleener will help the offense more than a receiver.
http://www.csnbayarea.com/blog/niners-talk/post/draft-picks-face-challenges-to-crack-int?blockID=693360&feedID=5936
Funny how Maiocco doesn’t realize Colin Jones is a safety. IMO the NFL should free the inactive 7. In fact I think they should expand rosters to 60, let them all be active game day, and go ahead and have 18 regular season games.
Matt Maiocco has said in the past that he doesn’t list Colin Jones as a safety because he is a special teams specialist, and by the end of last season he was seeing more reps at WR than safety.
Fortunately, the draft is almost here. Discussions like this are great if you have nothing else to do with your time or are hoping to impress someone, but they’re useless and boring. It will be much more worthwhile discussing the Niners’ picks after the draft.
This tells me that Randy came here because Harbaugh and Baalke sold him on playing with Manning.
http://blogs.nfl.com/2012/04/19/three-and-out-randy-moss-raises-red-flag/
Now that he sees it’s Alex he’s giving half ass effort already…
Don’t put too much stock in what Adan Rank has to say. He’s a fantasy analyst. Voluntary means voluntary. As Harbaugh said “he can work out in virginia just as easy as here.”
This tells me that …
Of course it tells you that because you want to believe that. You went on and on that no free agent WR would sign with the 49ers because they would not want to play with Alex Smith. Of course, you were wrong, as the Moss and Manningham signings demonstrated.
Now, you are just trying to spin that counter fact to fit your incorrect, preconceived narrative.
Unfortunately for you, you did not bother to read the very article you linked to. If you had, you would have seen this:
“… [Moss's absence] was cleared ahead of time by coach Jim Harbaugh during contract negotiations …”
Moss asked to be excused from the conditioning sessions before he signed with the 49ers. If, as you allege, Moss signed with the 49ers because Harbaugh and Baalke “sold him on playing with Peyton Manning,” then at the time he asked for the time off, he thought he would be playing with Peyton Manning. His request, therefore, would have had nothing to do with Alex Smith.
Or do you think the conversation went like this?
RM: I’ll sign with you guys, but if you don’t get Peyton Manning and I have to play with Alex Smith, then I’m gonna turn in a half-assed effort, starting with those conditioning sessions in April. Is that OK with you?
TB and JH: Sure.
It’s bad enough that you only seem interested commenting when you can wedge some sort of Alex Smith criticism into the topic. But now, your obsession with Alex Smith has you concocting fantasy scenarios. It’s a little scary.
No Claudia,
I think you are talking out of your a$$ pretending to know how the QB situation was positioned to Randy Moss.
IMO based on the timing, Randy Moss was brought in to entice Payton Manning, and Moss signed knowing the 49ers were putting the full court press on bringing Manning over.
Remember when he was signed Randy was asked if he was glad to meet Alex, and he said ” I’m happy to meet all of my teammates”. Very telling quote.
Don’t become so one sided that you have zero objectivity like Hofer….
@Bay,
He was excused by the coach, just like Gore and others. This is a total none story, besides, if he doesn’t perform he won’t be on the team. They only have to pay him for the games in which he is on the team so there is zero risk.
“Don’t become so one sided that you have zero objectivity like Hofer….”
Bay, did you ever notice that you only post AS related comments? Have you even discussed the draft or posted anything draft related? The Link you posted was as Jack stated, “a non-story”. You must be bored. LMAO.
Objectivity??! Har, har!!
@bay:
I think you are talking out of your a$$ pretending to know how the QB situation was positioned to Randy Moss.
You’re kidding, right? That may be the most hypocritical thing you have ever written on this blog, and you have set that particular bar pretty high. I have never claimed or pretended to know any such thing. You, on the other hand, asserted that “… Randy came here because Harbaugh and Baalke sold him on playing with Manning.” That is nothing but you pretending to know how the QB situation was presented to Moss, or in your words, “talking out of your a$$.”
IMO based on the timing ..
Let’s be clear here. The comment you made, the comment to which I responded, was that Moss’s absence from the conditioning sessions was evidence that the 49ers “sold [Moss] on playing with Manning” and that Moss was staying away from the sessions because Alex Smith was the QB. As I demonstrated in my response, your theory is completely and utterly without merit.
Don’t become so one sided that you have zero objectivity
I take it back. That is the most hypocritical thing you have ever written on this blog. You have no self-awareness, do you?
So, you don’t wish to participate, right? (lol).
I think moving up for a guard would be the wisest move but I’ve fallen in love with Fleener.
I had never heard of Dan Shonka (former NFL scout) until Dave Razzano mentioned him in one of his tweets. Anyway, Dan runs Ourlands’ NFL Scout services and they have a tremendous website (filled useful info).
Here’s their NFL Draft Value Chart. This can act as a guide for draft day trades and what each pick is values at:
http://www.ourlads.com/nfldraftvalue/
I have a hunch that if Fleener or whatever receiver they are looking at is gone at 30, it’s going to be Harrison Smith, the safety from ND.
Another top flight safety would be an area of need.
Guard would be a area of need.
Hey Grant,
Last week I mentioned that you should ping Ira Miller for a story relating to how BW drafted – preparation, need versus BPA, moving up or down, focus on detail, etc. Don’t you still have access to Ira? It would be a great read!!
That’s a great idea, Hof!
Walsh talks about that in his books too. Basically, he seems to have flown by the seat of his pants – some years he’d move up, others he’d move down and get quantity. He did not stick to any kind of absolute rule. He always accounted for need but he had a real talent for evaluation, and he trusted his instincts. He was sometimes REALLY wrong – James Owen, Blanchard Montgomery and such – but when he was right, he was often REALLY right – Montana, Rice, Haley, Clark.
Grant, where are your blogs for the groundbreaking. I’d like to see a story about George Siefert, one of the most under rated coaches in NFL history.
I would just like to say. If you celebrate 4/20. Your a loser. Thats all. Have a great weekend. Heading up to Tahoe and the cabin. Cheers with Beers, No point in a joint. Wheeew ;-)
To each his own. I’ve been a farmer for 30yrs. Still enjoy a tasty bowl on the weekends. Never been a real drinker but I do enjoy my Amstel especially when I’m in Amsterdam where it’s so fresh tasting. I used to live in Tahoe. When I got out of the Marines I had a buddy whose parents owned the house over looking Heavenly Valley and Lake Tahoe. That was the view from the dining room. They bought it from Russ Francis. We lived in the apartment underneath the home. I enjoyed living there.
Great story Razor!!!
4/20=onelame….. Buh…. Ha ha….. Haaaaa…… I toked up back in my youngster days. Never cared to much for weed. Don’t care that people smoke it, but to brag and act like its some new thing is lame. Gotta go. The lake is mine in the morning. Maybe I’ll go buy a bunch of coke and make 4/21 cocaine day. Lol peace my hippie lettuce users. ;-)
….dude …..you hav serious issues…
Ah Amsterdam,a place where you can entertain one of your delights Razor at the local cafe!
no point in a joint? really?
“Still enjoy a tasty bowl on the weekends.” LMAO. That is awesome. That sounded like a Jeff Spicoli quote.
Book em’ Danno….
md
You need to think of something else. Oneniner had only posted 1 time on this blog.
…he can’t he his obsessed with oneniner, Alex and those who like Alex…..
….i bet he talks about oneniner to his wife or hubby…..
The more I think about this draft the more crucial the correct choice of receiver(s)seems imperative. Looking at our corps : Manningham (good replacement for Josh); Crabs is OK but still has some improvement required to warrant his high selection;Williams may be gone;Ginn ‘s place on the squad comes thru his KR ability not his prowess as a receiver;Randy Moss is a complete question mark -does he show or will he melt down and disrupt.Sans our TE’s,are we markedly better at receiver by free agency -perhaps one can make that case.I agree with Grumpy however,we need a top receiver sorely -here’s hoping we get the real deal this week.
Hear, hear! I would target Fleener. He would be the final ingrediant on offense to chaos unleashed on opposing defenses. Add another receiver when the opportunity for value presents itself. Address the rest of the team needs at RG, DT, OLB, CB/S,RB. Bring in the usual leftover F/A’s and add a vet at RG. This would be a team on paper that I would not relish facing on my best day let alone on opening day in Lambeau.
Mind you they didn’t play our defense last year however what was their record last year 15-1?That is no cakewalk in GB,we better bring the sword and the shovel.Oh wait we have P.Willi.
And we will Unleash the Beast upon their cottage cheese heads.
Looks like everyone is still getting along famously. Good good.
Moving along.
Any guesses on who Baalke’s draft crush is?
One of the Bleacher Report guys (yes, I know) had an interesting Niners Mock: Fleener, Zeitler and Crick. Now wouldn’t THAT be interesting. He had some gap fillers in there too at Safety, etc.
Speaking of Safety, what’s the deal with Goldson? He hasn’t signed yet. Not happy with the franchise tag?
TB did an excellent job in the draft last year. It still bothers me that he is a disciple of BPar, but so be it. JH isn’t really running a WCO per se anyway. He is actually running something that looks more what PSimms ran for BPar in NY. So to me, even with all of the BW legacy speak, JH runs more of an 80′s BPar offense than an 80′s BW offense. Let’s see if JH opens the playbook this year since most of the players on offense have mentioned that they just used a very small percentage of the playbook in 2011.
I’m thinking TB’s draft crush is on a defensive guy. Either DB or DL. Let’s hope it’s not a WR, unless it is a guy he can get in round 2 – 5. I wouldn’t use a first round pick at #30 spot for an RB or WR this year.
“I wouldn’t use a first round pick at #30 spot for an RB or WR this year.”
I agree. The only caveat there would be how comfortable they feel with Moss. But… from what I’m hearing on NFL Net, guys that know Moss say he’s an absolute workout warrior beast when he goes home to train. One guy was saying that there isn’t a player out there that will go and train with the guy because he’s a fanatic.
Unless somehow Turbin falls in our lap, I don’t see the RB position either. Doesn’t seem logical to draft a guy that would put one of the established players on the bench. Doesn’t seem realistic either. Same with WR.
Maiocco is saying the Niners have a board of about 150 players on it, so they don’t account for all the players available. Could very well be that we get some guys no one is paying any attention to right now (like last year) and that suits me fine. They did a nice job last season. Aldon Smith?? Who saw that one coming? Yikes.
The Goldson thing has me a bit concerned and with the lack of depth at that position…? Hmm.
To me, Fleener is a gimme if he’s there but you could be absolutely right, could be a defensive player in the first round.
Adam, I hear you regarding safety behind DG but they found DWhit and CRod in FA they can find someone there next years as well. The value at 30 would be DL, LB pass rush guy, and a versatile TE (CF). What makes CF unique is that he can play all of the positions that DW has played with height and more speed. The WRs this year all look the same depending on size and drafting one of them in the 3rd round versus 1st round doesn’t seem like the pick would be degrees better. It will be interesting which way they go…
@Hofer why are you down on the Parcells link? I didn’t like Parcells as a coach because he was a (male reproductive organ). As a personnel guy he was almost as good as Walsh.
As long as Baalke isn’t coaching I’m ok with the Parcells link.
MSC, you know I respect you to the highest degree my malt scotch drinking friend but to compare BP to BW is sacrilege.
Adam, “One of the Bleacher Report guys (yes, I know) had an interesting Niners Mock: Fleener, Zeitler and Crick. Now wouldn’t THAT be interesting. He had some gap fillers in there too at Safety, etc.”
That guy must be trolling on this board, because that is an exact match of the first mock I did a couple weeks back. I think it would be tough for them to trade far enough up in Rd 2 to get him, but they can afford to be aggressive this year because they are pretty set on the 46 man roster.
We will have all the answers by this time next week, (at least for rds 1-3)
I’m going on record as saying that I don’t love Fleener. Not as a first rounder anyway. I don’t like his hips….. Not fluid IMO.
Bologna. Fleener’s got fluid hips and he’s a fluid route runner with suddenness and burst.
It’s okay Bay. The only guy you love is the backup QB, whoever that may be.
I can’t see Zeitler dropping to #60. Did the slideshow include a trade up in round 2?
(yes, yes, I have a draft crush on Zeitler. Sue me.)
Jack, you should change your name instigator – but you are a valued contributor here!! LOL
I used to love bologna sandwiches….
I don’t understand why you and every other writer in the bay area continues to be obsessed with receivers and Colby Fleener. I’m going to be surprised if the Niners take a receiver in the first round. If we truly take the best player available it will not be a receiver, more likely a cornerback or an impact defensive front 7 player. Colby Fleener would be a waste of a pick. You don’t spend a first round pick on somebody that would only see the field 20 snaps a game at most his first couple years.
…..safety from ND…..
“You don’t spend a first round pick on somebody that would only see the field 20 snaps a game at most his first couple years”.
If he increases your Green Zone production you do. Besides Fleener can spit wide just like VD and he would be used in multiple packages. He already knows the system which I like to call “West Coast Smash Mouth”.
@razor
I know it was in error, but “Fleener spit wide” is really funny.
:- )
Theres a solid chance that no player regardless of position selected will see the field for 20 snaps per game. Thats how set our starting lineup is. A Fleener pick guards against the probability of Walker leaving next year.
I did that on purpose. Didn’t I? Not really:)
…..i am still pissed WILLIS didn’t make the Madden Cover…..
thank god!!
Seriously, I was getting a little worried about that. Madden covers and star players don’t mix very well.
Last year he missed a few games and if he did make the cover, he will probably be out the year, that is a good thing.
No way. The Madden Curse is real.
Ask the Red Sox about the Babe Ruth curse.
We all know what we need, a receiver, right guard, running back, safety and a cornerback, I will let Harbaugh and Baalke decide who we need, they did pretty darn good last year. I think the Niners will be smart and not put Moss in the equation and if we get good results from him it will be a bonus.
We Need Fleener shirts now going into production to be distributed across the Northern California area.
Jack:
Bay probably was never calling for the backup QB when Montana or Young were the starters.He along with most others just hope for better than what they have had for the last 7 years and IF Alex cant give that better to them then they look to whoever is next in line. Hopefully Alex can finally produce much better and everyone will be happy. If he cant then we should all look to whoever is next in line.
49ers 2012 Draft (unoffical)
1. Coby Fleener Stanford
2. Amini Silatolu Midwestern State
3. Robert Turbin Utah State
4. Alameda Ta’amu Washington
5. Chris Rainey Florida
6. Sean Cattouse California
7. Omar Bolden Arizona State
*Subject to change between now and draft day (lol).
I will challenge with:
1) Zeitler
2) Wolfe
3) One of those wide receivers that all look the same; Nick Toon maybe?
That Ta’amu pick would be fantastic value but geez… it took me two years to figure out how to pronounce Sopoaga and another year for Iupati. Is it Tay-ahmoo? Tah-Aymoo?
As long as he blocks like a moo moo who cares.
OK and I’ll challenge that with my *final* mock 5.0 (for Hightop) from above:
So the 2012 9er draft selections looks like this:
1. CFleener, TE
2. RRandle, WR (trade with Mia)
4. RTurbin, RB
5. TThomas, Safety
6. BPA
7. BPA
If the 9ers have these guys on their roster 5/1, we’re in good shape. Thoughts??!
That would be a terrific draft, but I’d still draft Jarius Wright over Robert Turbin in the fourth round if both players were available.
Thanks GC. You’re a good dude and can’t disagree with you since WR is high on the list as well. BTW, I hope you didn’t mind my request regarding you talking to Ira (if you saw it).
Thanks. I didn’t mind it. It was a good idea, but it’s going to happen with Ira this time. I will try him again in the future.
Turbin would be a good and logical pick. I just think Wright is a big time sleeper with Pro Bowl talent.
GC, thanks for correcting my mistake.
I’d be very happy with that draft AES! Ta’amu I don’t understand why he’s been dropping – his combine wasn’t the best but he just looks very well suited as a 3-4 NT. Good initial quickness to get the OL rocking backward, and the strength to hold up double teams. He was being talked about as a potential late 1st rounder/ early 2nd rounder before the combine.
I would like to see a mid-round WR though. Maybe use the 5th and 6th picks to move up in the 5th and grab whoever is falling. With so many good mid-round calibre WRs this year, someone is bound to fall.
Nice AES but how do we get Fleener and Silatolu without a trade?Silatolu will most likely be a high second round pick if not a low first and as projected Fleener landing with us will likely require a trade of some kind.Don’t get me wrong, love your choices here. If we dont get Fleener ,let’s make a deal.Three guys I like of the top of my head in the third/ fourth round range:Greg Childs- WR,Markelle Martin-S,Alameda Ta’amu -NT. Nice mock!
@AES
That’s one of the best mocks I’ve seen.
Do we really need any help on the D line at all ? We have the best D line in the League and already have a couple young studs that couldnt even get playing time last year.
Who are these young studs Tim? RJF? Tukuafu? Dobbs? Williams? I find it amazing that Kilgore and Person aren’t considered by many on here as worthy replacements for Snyder/ Rachal because they were 5th and 7th round prospects, respectively, with next to no NFL playing experience… Tukuafu, Dobbs and Williams weren’t even drafted, also have next to no NFL experience, yet are considered “young studs”? You are right though Tim – they couldn’t even get playing time last year…
Scooter,
Tukuafu was in a regular rotation before hurting his wrist in Philly. As for Williams, there must be a reason they thought enough of him to keep him on the 53 man all season. They could have very easily replaced him if they didn’t have future plans for him.
Tukuafu was seeing some snaps last season, this is true, but I wouldn’t say he was in a regular rotation. He occasionally spelled a player.
My point is that while the 49ers clearly like these players, none of them have yet proven anything. I’m sure they hope they will all turn out to be starting calibre players, but the more likely scenario is they emerge to be decent backups and rotational players – which is a great result for guys brought in as undrafted FAs and fully justifies why they are high on them.
With Sopoaga and RJF off contract next year, and Smith getting older, now is a good time to start thinking about who will be the starting DL in 1 to 2 years time, before the position becomes one of need you go over-drafting a player. Most DL rookies, unless you take them at the top of the draft, usually don’t start from day 1 for playoff teams.
Scooter, Of course they don’t start early, they develop, which is what they are doing with Tukuafu and Williams. Both those guys are young, 2 years for Tukuafu and 1 for Williams. They could very easily be getting groomed to replace Sopoaga and RJF next year.
Yes, but they could also very easily end up not being good enough to start. They are developmental prospects. You hope they develop to the point where they stick on your roster. Tukuafu is showing some real promise as a guy that can be a rotational player. Dobbs looked good in preseason and may also make a good rotational player. Williams showed enough in practice to earn a spot on the roster. In an ideal world all three go on to become starting calibre NFL players.
But I don’t want the 49ers to rely on these guys becoming starters. It’s not that common for undrafted FAs to go on and become star players – it does happen, but not that often. To trap lightning in a bottle on 2 or 3 guys at the same position is highly unlikely. It’s fantastic if they do, but I don’t think it is a good idea to just assume they will. What is the contingency plan?
No guarantee any draft pick at DL will ever be any better than Dobbs or Williams or Tukuafu. Dobbs especially looked like a PB player in last years preseason. No guarantee that he will ever be anything special in a regular season game,but at least he and Dobbs and Tukuafu have time in the system already,the prospective rookie has none . Why waste a pick on another D lineman when we already have the best D line in the League and already have 3 young prospects to step in when older players leave ? Of course only the staff know if they think Dobbs and Williams and Tukufau are the future or if they will need to draft better D linemen.
AES:
Do you really believe the team will use 7 picks this year, or will they spend 2 or 3 of them to move up in a couple rounds ? I cant believe 7 rookies could possibly make the team.
It’s a hard call Tim.
I only presented these seven picks because as of now that is where we stand. There may be possible trades that would obviously up-end my “unofficial” scenario. Fleener and Silatolu are wishful picks given the 49ers stay at 30 and 61.
Also, I youtube’d Chris Rainey and was amazed at how a player with a small stature had the ability to run through and break tackles. At 4.3 40 yrd and quick as a waterbug, he would unseat TGjr as our Return Specialist by mid-season. He also displays very good pass catching capabilities. He could be the steal of the draft in the 5th rd.
MS:
I am still confused on how to pronounce Soap’s name.On tv MM told us in Soap’s first year that Soap pronounced it SoapaAhna. But every announcer I hear on game days,even the local radio guys,who should know,cal him SoapaAGGa or something near that.
Hey Grant…Can you find out how Soap pronounces it for us ?
Grant You don’t know and can’t find out ??? (about Soap).
What would be the chances if Fleener is still around in the mid 20′s that the Colts would trade up from 34 to get him? Or will they want every one of their picks
I think the Colts want their picks. The Giants are more likely to trade up for Fleener if he falls.
I was figuring something of the sort. Haven’t read any reports on it and was wondering why.
I think the Browns will draft Fleener @ 22 if he falls that far.
Thats why we will have to trade with Cincinnati at pick 21 to get him. The Bengals will make the trade.
Probably.
4th & 6th Round picks this year and next years 3rd Round pick would get it done right?
No. It would cost this year’s third and fourth rounders plus next year’s sixth rounder.
Fleener IMHO would be well worth that trade to secure his service in the 49er army.
The Browns can’t take Fleener, they have Alex Smith.
Nobody gets rid of Alex Smith. It’s like the Madden Curse.
I just can’t see the Browns taking a TE over a WR in the 1st. They already have Ben Watson and Evan Moore who are probably Cleveland’s best and 2nd best receivers. The only knock on those 2 guys is they both finished the season on IR last year. But I really can’t see them adding a 3rd good TE when they need help at so many other positions.
@msclemons67 . Well, Fleener would then be joining another ex-Stanford Cardinal, Alex Smith, with the Browns.
@Mood, as they say (annoyingly) on KNBR: Good knowledge!
When was Smith enrolled at Stanford, ever?
MidWest, Alex Smith was at Stanford from 2001-2004, and was drafted in 2005.
Scooter:
Yep,I was talking about Dobbs and Williams.Dobbs was raw but was unstoppable in preseason and I thought Williams was projected as the possible future starter at NT,at least in the rotation.
… and Scooter, that was my point, that we have the best D line in football and even a stud DL draft pick would sit, just like Dobbs and Williams did.Sooner or later J Smith will start to slow down but it seems early to worry about that in the draft.
Having a player “sit” for a season does not make it a wasted draft pick. Was Kaepernick a wasted pick? Most players need time to develop into starters, this is normal. Sopoaga and RJF are off contract at the end of the year. Having a guy “sit” or be a backup/ in the DL rotation this year with an eye to take over next year is a smart move.
I think the real issue here is that I don’t believe having Harbaugh and Baalke say they are high on Williams, Dobbs and Tukuafu means they think these guys will be the starting DL of the future. To me it suggests they think they are guys that if pressed into action will do a job, and can develop into valuable backups/ rotational players.
In my opinion, if the strength of the team is the front 7, if that is what makes your team one of the best in the NFL, you don’t ignore it and assume it will stay that way – you make sure you keep it that way and build around it. That means continuing to add talent to these positions to build competition and insure against injury and the inevitable FA losses (if a player plays well for the best front 7 in the NFL, other teams will take notice and be willing to throw money at them).
The 49er defensive mindset is starting to remind me of the Steeler defensive philosophy. Players come and go but the defense remains solid because a certain kind of player is drafted that fits the system. I know it’s only been one year but key players have been here for a few years and when they were given direction they flourished.
Andrew, that is exactly the model I would like to see the 49ers follow. The Steelers focus their attention on a strong DL that stops the run and pass-rushers. They regularly draft players in these positions, even if they don’t appear to “need” them. They understand they will never be able to keep all of their stars, so they continually draft guys in pretty high rounds with the idea they will replace current starters when contracts expire.
They’ve drafted two 3-4 DEs in recent years that this year will likely be starting. They also drafted Lawrence Timmons in the 1st round a few years back and he was a backup and special teams player in his first year, but is now their #1 ILB.
Two years ago they drafted Jason Worilds in the 2nd round even though they have Harrison and Woodley – 2 pro bowl calibre OLBs – already on the roster. He didn’t do much his rookie season, but last year he ended up playing a fair bit due to injuries and the defense continued to play well. They also took Chris Carter in the 5th last year. In a 3-4, you need OLBs that can get to the QB, and you need to make sure that if one guy gets hurt someone else can step in and do that job.
@Scooter
This may be one of the reasons another pass rusher is added to the mix or a DT to clog the middle.
Exactly what I’m thinking. Not to say they need to, but I see no reason why they wouldn’t take this approach if the value was there.
Keena Turner was a 2nd who hardly played his rookie year. That pick worked out ok.
On D they will pick a blitz & cover OLB somewhere; perhaps higher than we’ve been discussing. So much depends on what happens above us, TB probably isn’t sure who they’re going to grab.
Brotha, yes, Bruce Irvin in rd 2.
@ Jack
Yeah I saw that they showed interest in him. Bruce’s remarks about his previous issues seemed to reasonably address them. No evasion. But when I watched the tape of the Clemson game all I saw was a fast upfield sprint. I guess that’s why Trent gets paid and I do my analysis at the kitchen counter! Bet on Trent.
Scooter:
As long as the draft pick at DL is better than Williams and Dobbs rthen of course I would not be opposed. The problem is that Dobbs and Williams have already been in the system for a year and Dobbs looked like a 1st round pick in preseason and Williams looks to have all the measurables. No guarantees that Dobbs plays lights out like he did if it is a reg season game,but no guarantees a draft pick that has never even stepped on an NFL field during even a preseason game is any better.
Dobbs looked fantastic playing against other teams backups and players that ended up getting cut by other teams. He fully deserved his spot on the roster due to his pre-season play. I truly hope he goes on to become a great player, just like I do with Tukuafu and Williams.
But I honestly think you are reading too much into Harbaugh and Baalke’s talk of how they like these guys. Of course they like them – that’s why they kept them on the roster. Do they think they have something – yes. But to assume that means they think these guys will go on to become our starters is stretching it a bit. They also “feel really good about” Alex Boone, Colin Jones, CJ Spillman, Tramaine Brock – the list goes on. Guys that can make the roster and contribute. I’m not sure they think of any of these guys as starters though.
If Baalke drafts a DL then sure, there are no guarantees they will be better – even if its a 1st rounder. But I trust Baalke and the scouts to be able to pick a talented player. The chances that a high to mid round DL pick is less talented than 3 undrafted FAs has to be pretty low.
Scooter:
I personally didn’t hear JH or Baalke talk about how much they like those 3 D linemen and if I had it would mean nothing to me,since JH never says the truth about his players if the truth is not good.
I just like what I saw from Dobbs in preseason and am hungry to see more and to see if he can do it against starters consistently. And like I said ,a D lineman draft pick is just as likely to be a bust as any of those 3 guys.
We will just all have to be content to let JH and Baalke decide .
But to say a D lineman is a top priority in the draft when we have the best D line in the League already and we also have 3 really good looking prospects already,is ,it seems to me,something we can do without. (unless the staff knows Dobbs,Williams and Tukuafu are never going to make it.).Maybe next year if J. Smith looks like he is fading and if those 3 youngsters didn’t show much,then we could go D line ? Or maybe this year if a D lineman is head and shoulders above all the other players on their draft board when it is time to pick.
Personally I think it is more likely we draft another OLB instead of another big D lineman.(along with a receiver ,a RB ,a safety and probably a O lineman.)
I’ve never said DL is a top priority (and by that I assume you mean a position we must address) and I don’t believe it to be. It is not a “need” position. I don’t believe we have any positions of need this year.
My point is that teams like the Steelers and Ravens, that have great defenses, often draft DL and OLBs even when it doesn’t appear they need to. Its the backbone of the 3-4.
I don’t believe that DL is a position we should ignore just because we have 3 really good starters and some young guys that may or may not become decent players. If Baalke and Harbaugh decide not to draft any DL or an OLB, I’m also fine with that.
Rumors keep surfacing that the pick is Hill or Zeitler. I will submit that picking Hill over Fleener would drop a Piss-Off Bomb on my head. DeCastro would be the only guard I would pick over Fleener and then I’d be caught looking back regretfully. Only because I believe Alex Smith needs Mr. Fleener more than he needs a top first round guard.
Honestly I would be surprised (wouldn’t be the first time) if we took Hill in the first. Zeitler possibly ..maybe ,Silatolu .But an unproven WR with limited route tree experience…??? We’ll see soon.
i’d be *very* disappointed with one of those two at #30. But if they work out, so be it. Damn, can’t wait until the draft. More to discuss with the best blog and best commenters in the 9er empire!!
I think trying to read Baalke is an effort in futility. It wouldn’t surprise if he picked someone that has not been mentioned by all us experts. If several players they like are there at 20-24 I have a feeling you’ll see some serious maneuvering.
I wouldn’t believe the rumors. There weren’t any rumors last year about Aldon Smith.
There weren’t any rumors about Aldon Smith but everyone thought they were going LB (Von Miller) and they did. This year everyone knows they need a receiver and I think they will go there, hopefully with Fleener. While there has been a lot of talk about him being the choice on this board, that thought doesn’t seem to be so strong on a broader scale.
Do you think Baalke would spend a first rounder on a player who would only get non-special teams snaps if a starter got hurt? I’m talking about DT, OLB and CB, specifically.
Yes. I believe Baalke drafts based on the contribution they provide 2-3 years down the track, not what they contribute as rookies. 49ers are in a fortunate position that they are a good team even if none of their rookies make a big impact this year. They truly can draft based on what makes them the best team in 2-3 years time.
Also, a DT, CB or OLB taken in the 1st or 2nd round, assuming they are any good, would likely get some non-special teams snaps during the season regardless of injury simply through rotation or different personnel packages. Probably not the same # of snaps as Aldon Smith and Chris Culliver got last season, but some.
It wouldn’t make sense to use the first pick on a player who would be primarily a special team guy the first year, when you have other areas that you need to improve on.
A DT might get into a rotation with, an OLB in Rd 1 for the second year in a row makes no sense since he would be a backup for a few years, and the CB makes the least amount of sense. You already have 2 young guys in Brown and Culliver, just re-signed Rogers, and have guys behind them that can play too.
Anything but a receiver type player at 1 would be disappointing.
Would you prefer a WR that is good but not great and can contribute straight away over an OLB or CB that become perennial pro bowlers but don’t become starters for a year or two? I’m not going to put any names to this hypothetical, as it is purely that, but if Baalke believes there is a pro bowl calibre OLB or CB available at #30 and they don’t take him simply because they “need” to get a receiver that can contribute this year, I’ll be disappointed.
As for a WR – who are they going to be starting ahead of this year? Crabtree, Moss or Manningham? I can see Fleener starting ahead of Walker, but none of the WRs likely to be available at #30 are guaranteed to see much playing time at WR this year, unless there are injuries.
Scooter,
The OLB would not be a Pro Bowler on this team because he wouldn’t start for a long time, as Smith and Brooks have those positions locked up. The same thing with the corner, he would be number 4 on the depth chart at best for at least 4 years behind Rogers, Culliver and Brown.
The WR/TE while not being a starter could come in here and immediately help address the 2 biggest areas of weakness from 2011, 3rd down and red zone efficiency. Moss, Manningham and Walker all could be gone within 2 years and this player could be ready to take over at that time.
Brooks’ contract is heavily incentive laden and he is not a pro bowl calibre player. His position is locked up so long as he is one of the best 2 OLB’s on the roster. If the 49ers drafted a pro bowl calibre OLB, he would take over Brooks’ position in a year or two.
I believe Brown is coming off contract in the near future, and Rogers’ deal I believe had no more than 2 years of guaranteed money.
A pro bowl calibre OLB or CB would work their way into a starting job in a year or two, and would make an already strong defensive unit even better. I can’t see how drafting a good but not great WR ahead of such a player is a good move. Think of it this way – would you prefer to draft Crabtree or Aldon Smith?
Aldon Smith. So you would rather they draft another defensive player in Round 1?
Actually no, I don’t. I hope they take Fleener because I think he will be a pro bowl calibre player for the 49ers. But if Baalke doesn’t think Fleener or any WR available at #30 is as good a player as a defensive player that is available, then I hope they take the defensive player. There aren’t many instances in which you pass up a pro bowler in a position as important as OLB or CB for a lesser player in another position.
Teams are going to get yards passing when they cannot run. Our DBs are not as good as our front seven, but they aren’t terrible either. In any event, safety is more of a need this year than CB. I’d be surprised if we don’t add one within the first three rounds. But with Holcomb and our top 4 coming back, I would be surprised if we took a CB in the first four.
Folks,
Don’t be surprised if the following happens:
1. 49ers take a CB if any of these guys are still on board: Dre Kirkpatrick, Stephon Gilmore, Janoris Jenkins
2. They take a DE/OLB if any of these guys are still available: Courtney Upshaw, Shea McClellin, Whitney Mercilus
A realistic scenario is CB, since one of the guys mentioned will be available. As for the OLB, I have a feeling that all three of them (Upshaw, McClellin, and Mercilus) will be gone by the 30th pick.
If Baalke drafted Jenkins in the first round, how many snaps would he realistically get at CB in 2012?
I say this because the FO has shown interest in mid-round WR prospects (Marvin Jones, A.J. Jenkins, etc). Regarding Jones, Eric Branch wrote the following:
He’s had pre-draft discussions with the 49ers. Jones said he “didn’t want to get into depth” about the nature of his contact with the team, but it’s apparently gone beyond the hi-how-are-you-doing stage.
http://blog.sfgate.com/49ers/2012/04/20/wr-beyond-the-first-round-cal%E2%80%99s-marvin-jones/
Grant,
He may get to play nickle and special teams. Keep in mind that Carlos Rogers isn’t getting any younger and they need to start looking ahead.
I’m sure Baalke still remembers those years when our CBs kept getting hurt and we were signing street FAs that had to come in and play straight away. The old adage that you can never have too many good CBs or pass rushers. I think CB or OLB/DE is definitely a possibility. If they draft a CB or OLB in the 1st round, they won’t start, but they will likely see playing time.
I don’t see the 49ers drafting Jenkins though. Yes they may have signed guys with character question marks in Moss and Cox, but drafting a guy with character concerns in the 1st round seems very unlike Baalke’s “gold star” approach.
Considering almost every decent qb we faced threw for 300 yards against us and Jenkins shut down both AJ Green and Julio Jones in college. He would step in immediately as our #2 cover corner.
I dont believe our DB’s are that good. They look much better than they are because of our Pass Rush.
Teams are going to get yards passing when they cannot run. Our DBs are not as good as our front seven, but they aren’t terrible either. In any event, safety is more of a need this year than CB. I’d be surprised if we don’t add one within the first three rounds. But with Holcomb and our top 4 coming back, I would be surprised if we took a CB in the first four.
Grumpy,
I dont think that they are terrible. I just believe that they are much weaker than our front seven. With this weakness solidified I believe the defense could be absolutely dominate in the terms of the old Baltimore Ravens and Bears teams.
I just saw this news release regarding Nebraska CB Alfonzo Dennard getting arrested. I was never really high on this kid, but this incident is sure to drop his stock.
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/alfonzo-dennard-arrest-five-days-draft-191016671.html
That is some seriously bad timing on Dennard’s part. Ouch. He was being projected as a late 2 – early 3 last time I remember seeing his name.
Anybody that has a chance to see ESPN’s Sports Science segment on Coby Fleener do so. It’s made me want the guy on the 49ers all the more.
I posted that link I believe on the previous post or maybe above, but after I viewed it I came to the same conclusion Mr. MidWestNiner. My only concern was medical with Mr. Fleener but after seeing him put the 2 Sumo wrestlering on their backs they were alleviated.
I dont see anything but a receiver or a gaurd at the number 1 spot. Reason being you have to crack the 46 suit up team. Those too me are the only two positions that can make the 46 team. I dont think you waste a number 1 pick and have them sit on the bench undressed. I really dont see any receiver besides the Flea – Fleener making the suit up squad. I actually can see Baalke-Harbaugh trading up to get him. At the gaurd position there are also a couple Silatolu and Zeitlier. I am thinking those are 2nd round picks. Probably have to move up to get them also. I see a safety a linebacker, receiver (Joe Adams) in later rounds.
I feel as though I just lost a couple Benjamins getting my fortune told by Carnac the Magnificent. If we were to get Fleener And Silatolu I’d be sick with joy.
It would be a truly great draft if we got those two, even if we didnt draft anyone else.
I concur.
@Razor
May the stars be with you. My take is that if Hill and Randle go before Flenner the Stanford tight end will be there at 30. However, if this tight end fascination continues all readings are off.
I dont view Fleener as a tight end, of course he will play that position but I see him in the Slot and even on the outside. He has the speed and hands and size to do it. Quite frankly you can line him up in the backfield on short yardage for that one yard we need he is a load to bring down. To me he is the nearsest player to the cant miss player in the entire draft.
If you draft someone in the 1st and 2nd and they aren’t good enough to suit up on game day, then that’s a reach pick in my opinion. 1st and 2nd rounders should have the talent to at least contribute in some fashion straight away – even if its only special teams. I don’t think there are many positions on our roster that a 1st or 2nd round pick couldn’t beat out our existing depth and stick on the 46 man roster come game day.
Speaking of pass catchers, why doesn’t Jerome Simpson have a team yet. 50 rec for 725 yards with a rookie QB isn’t awful. I was surprised he wasn’t someone that we brought in and I was even more surprised that he wasn’t considered a top WR fa, what am I missing with this guy?
Simpson is looking at up to 5 years in prison. No team is going to sign him until his criminal proceedings are finalized.
Even if he manages to plea bargain for probation he’s looking at a 4 game suspension.
OH, he’s the guy who got the pot mailed to him. I realize now that I thought that was Caldwell that got busted for that.
Too bad, another kid with a million dollar body and a ten cent head.
15 days in jail. suspension likely.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7779666/former-cincinnati-bengals-jerome-simpson-sentenced-15-days-jail-three-years-probation
Thanks Grimey. My intensive research (30 seconds on Google) didn’t turn up the sentencing info.
Only 15 days and likely a two game suspension – seems like someone might take a shot at him. He’s not getting any guaranteed money though.
….49ers 1st round pick…..
Name: Harrison Smith
Position: Safety
College: Notre Dame
I’m not sold on Harrison Smith. Here’s a scouting report on him.
“Plays overaggressive and moves too fast for his eyes … missed tackles in space and over runs plays.”
“Has tight hips and struggles to turn and quickly change directions … plays stiff.”
Sounds like Taylor Mays to me.
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1265468/harrison-smith
Nick, I got the same impression when I read his scouting report a few weeks back.
……a 47-game college starter and eager special-teamer is too much to pass up…….especially when you need a starting safety next yr
@oneniner
Do you think DG would be stupid enough to leave the Niners? He knows what he sucks at. And the Niners are one of the few teams who allows him to play to his advantages.
If he left the Niners, he wouldn’t have Whitner with him any longer. And we all saw what happened when DG didn’t have Whitner (2010 – cut by Niners and NOBODY wanted to even look at him) and when he had Whitner (2011 – Pro Bowler).
I’ve been reading that Barron from Alabama is the only Safety even close to 1st round talent. That opinion shared across multiple sources. Doesn’t mean it’s right, but I hadn’t seen any counter arguments.
Hey Hof realy nice 5th mock-Here’s mine at this point:(1) Fleener-;(2)Markelle Martin-S;(3)Greg Childs; WR(4)J Wright or D Wylie- Receiver;(5)David Molk Ol;(6)Tauren Poole RB ;(7)Deshawn Shead CB.
top,
Could you imagine the weapons the 9ers would finally have on offense with Fleener, Childs, JWright/DWy adding to MM, RM, MC VD, DW – WOW! Part of me believes that the FO wants to keep that defense elite and may go DL or DB at #1. We’ll know in 4 days, 7 hours, 40 minutes, and 2 seconds. LOL
Profootballtalk posted these but in case you don’t visit that site here are some fun videos of the 1981 draft and to see how far it’s come is amazing. Those of use that were actually alive in 1981(albeit only 7 years old) will have a fun trip down bad tv graphics lane and of course to see how unorganized and impromptu the whole show looks is in far contrast to the heavily monitored event that it is today.
Anyway, enjoy: Part One http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2QYsqKjojhI&feature=relmfu
Part two: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FvYmENulWcQ
Hof- Fleener, Randle, Turbin, Thomas would be strong.The Fleener/Silatolu notion above would be fine with me.Heck hock the house get Fleener De Castro and the best WR left and I would a be very happy camper.The seven round mock is impossible to fulfill(trades,etc.) but a fun way to look at the a draft aspirants within a Big Board scheme and compose .Always look forward to sharing that process with you and our community.Always Faithful!!!!!
If the 9ers walked away with from the 2012 draft with DeCastro and RRandle, trading their picks to move up, that would not be a bad thing. I saw a draft show on CSN Bay the other night and EDavis thinks the 9ers shouldn’t trade up or back. He thinks they should draft the BPA and keep the best to ensure the team stays on top for years. Not a bad thought since there are fringe players that (regardless of what we think here at the blog) may not make the team this year.
Another player named Ladarius Green of Louisiana Lafayette a below average TN but an excellent receiver with 10 1/8 hand size & is almost 6 ft 6 inches, and is an average route runner which does need refinement. He has one knee with tendinitis. Cory Fleener has history of injuries, back, ankile, injuries that has been with him through out his career. A first rounder, I don’t think so. There a lot blue chip players or hidden GEMS, select wisely Trent.
He didn’t look like he had any injuries when he pulled the 2 Sumo wrestlers off their feet and onto their backs.
Hey Boo Boo, Are you smarter than the average bear? Cory Fleener has history of injuries, back, ankile, injuries that has been with him through out his career.”
Who cares if Cory Fleener has a history of injuries. I am only concerned with how Coby is doing.
I have this impression that FO like bigger receivers, so I don’t know if they’d pick someone like Wylie or J.Wright or J.Adams or K.Wright. If they would, there’s an interesting guy named Patrick Edwards from Houston. He’s small and may be a system guy, but he was productive.
@Hofer
“If the 9ers walked away with from the 2012 draft with DeCastro and RRandle, trading their picks to move up, that would not be a bad thing.”
When you say trade their picks do you mean all of them this year for the two players? It seems like you would almost have to to be able to get them both. As much as I would very much like both of those players I think it arrogant for any team to assume that they only need to bring in two new players from a draft. Not to mention that if either one or god forbid both of them don’t match expectations it we’d be totally screwed.
I would almost take a WWJD moment and ask, “would Belichik ever trade away all his picks for just two players?”
Faithful, I hear you. There is only a couple of players that will make the team from this year’s draft. The rest will be relegated to the practice squad or cut. My point is drafting the top guard and the 3rd best WR (debatable) it would be an excellent draft considering the FA signings, etc.
Won’t try to flog this dead horse to much more so I’ll finish with my thought that; given the Tom Brady 6th round diamonds that exist in the draft, you can never know who/where they are, so hedging that many picks for just two players is very risky regardless of how ‘safe’ those two players might seem on paper.
Here’s an interesting article by Bob McGinn on the evolving “F” or the “U” flex tight end position in the NFL: http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/nfl-draft-pool-changes-as-tight-ends-shift-from-blocking-vn4vq5n-148348625.html
Excerpt: ‘”Let me tell you what I was taught,’ one personnel man said. ‘Pro Bowl tight ends aren’t blockers.’
Among the 2011 Pro Bowl choices, Gronkowski certainly was a heavy-duty blocker. Jimmy Graham, Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates certainly were not.”
you gotta put up numbers to make the pro bowl. you ain’t puttin up numbers blocking.
Matt Bowen of the National Football Post’s breakdown of Coby Fleener’s impact on the red zone: http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/NFL-Draft-Breaking-down-Fleeners-red-zone-impact-3790.html
“He wasn’t even the best tight end on their team,” the scout said. “No. 11 [sophomore Levine Toilolo], that’s the real deal. [Fleener] might be the most overrated guy in the draft. He’s awful as a blocker.”
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/04/22/scout-says-fleener-might-be-the-most-overrated-guy-in-the-draft/
““Despite his workout numbers he’s not really a quick-twitch, dymamic-moving guy. He’s a straight-line, build-up player,” the scout explained. “All these reports about him being an athlete and this and that, they’re assuming that because he ran fast. He’s really just a red-zone, jump-ball player.””
If that scout’s talking about Fleener, he’s trippin’.
The only thing that I see is close to being true from what he said is, “He’s really just a red-zone, jump-ball player.”
I would take that right now. That would be a great complement to Davis.
Dude was a second rounder until he ran a 4.45 in his underwear.
Fleener solves the main weaknesses from last year. If we could get him at 30 that is even better. We could then make some moves to move up in the other rounds.
I like him at 30 because he that is more in line with his value. I just don’t see him as the type of prospect that you trade up for from #30.
You’re setting yourself for a huge let down if they don’t draft him.
I’m not a fan.
In general or professional objectivity?
It would be more fun if you were. Nothing wrong with being a fan and still keeping your opinions objective, unless you just aren’t able to.
Just please tell me you aren’t a cheese head or a cowpoke.
Here’s another interesting way to compare Kendall and Jarius Wright. In 2011, Kendall caught 7 passes for 67 yards and 1 TD against Texas A&M while Jarius caught 13 passes for 281 yards and 2 TDs against the same school. Jarius is clearly the superior prospect.
In your opinion.
I happen to be 100 percent right on this one.
I’ve heard that before.
Brandon Weeden out performed Luck in the fiesta bowl and won the game. Is he a better prospect?
Is Kendall throwing himself the ball? Comparing how two teams fared against the same competition is horrible. Was one QB having a better day then they other, was the defensive back having a bad day when he went up against Jarius? I mean c’mon man you should know better.
I’m sorry I meant to say …comparing how two ‘players’ compare against the same team…
Last year Baalke surprised me by taking Person and Kilgore after taking Davis and Iupati the year before. I did not see that coming and at the time it did not make sense to me. Now it does with the departure of Snyder and Rachel. Trent was looking ahead and I was not.
This year, looking ahead Isaac Sopoaga is a free agent after next season. At the start of the 2013 season Soapy will be 33 years old. Even though Baalke added Ian Williams in free agency I am starting to think about guys like Alameda Ta amu, Brandon Thompson, Josh Chapman and Mike Martin at different points in the draft as possible replacements for Soapy if he leaves after next season. A 3/4 defense needs a solid Nose Tackle and Baalke has shown that he is thinking ahead, beyond what the average fan is.
Im also thinking that Baalke will be taking a safety pretty early in the draft. Behind Goldston and Whitner we have very little.
I agree, I think there is a very good chance they go defensive line or pass rusher.
In fact, I can see the seven players we take, in no particular order are–Running Back, Guard, Receiver, Nose Tackle, Safety, Corner and pass rush Outside Linebacker.
Right on the money there Domingo. RJF – our top backup at NT – is also a FA. I’m sure many will disagree, but to me the NT is the most important position in the 3-4. You need to have a good one, because a good NT makes every other defender’s job easier. They need to eat up blockers while still creating some push forward, in order to free up the LBs and get some inside pressure. A good NT should almost always demand double teams, and the great ones sometimes triple.
Look at the best 3-4 defenses (in my opinion the Ravens, Steelers and 49ers) – the Ravens and Steelers have probably the best 2 NTs in the business in Ngata and Hampton. 49ers have a good one in Sopoaga. I don’t believe it is any coincidence that the 49ers defense looks much better with Sopoaga at NT than Franklin. Yes, there are other pieces now in place as well, but it all starts with the NT.
I hope the 49ers take Josh Chapman. He reminds me of Casey Hampton when he was coming out of college. He was the anchor for the best college defense in the country last year – all while playing with a torn ACL. If you want to know how good he is – have a look what happened the one game he missed – Georgia Southern racked up 302 yards rushing. Main concern is his knee and whether it will be ready this year, but with Sopoaga and RJF on the team he wouldn’t need to be.
When do we take Chapman Scooter?
Would probably need to be in the 2nd. Doubt he lasts until our 3rd round pick.
@Scooter:
Good call on Chapman. You know the fact that he played most of the season on a torn ACL will appeal to Harbaugh.
1st Doug Martin- the MUSCLED HAMPSTER is perfect for this offense. Similar in size to Gore with very good vision and a knack for breaking tackles. He’s a power running offense dream tailback.
2nd Kelechi Osemele- 6’4 333 big and nasty……the mauler we need at RG and could play RT if needed.
3rd Greg Childs- Anyone familiar with SEC football over the last 3 years knows this guy was an absolute stud before his injury. Reminds me of Kenny Britt with better speed and attitude. The perfect kid to bring in to learn from Moss.
I could live with this scenario.
Nice Razor !
I would be happy with picks like those. Apparently you have not just rehashed other peoples popular picks but have put some thought of your own into it !
I’d be happy with that. Not sold on Martin, but if Baalke and Harbaugh think he’s worthy of #30 I’ll go with it. I’ve been high on Childs for a long time and would love to see him wearing a 49ers uniform. Osemele looks like a road grader any RB would love to run behind.
“Muscled Hampster” is fantastic.
Grant,
Have you heard anything about the Niners alternate uniforms? Most teams have a third uniform option that they are allowed to wear twice a season. Pittsburgh just revealed their alternates, which were horrible. There were rumblings that the team might go with the old school grey and red look, which I think would be cool.
http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/532810/alt_5_medium.png
Those almost look like the Bucs uniform )
They are pretty cool. They kind of resemble the Ohio State unis. It’s another revenue stream for the teams, the alternate jersey’s are pretty popular.
They also look like the throw back jerseys – the ones worn in the 49ers last SuperBowl victory.
Grant,Tyson Ross’s birthday today you two old men having a party? 25?..I always thought I was my best at 24..then downhill…hee.
No, we’re all business, but I did see him yesterday before the A’s game. I’m so proud of that dude.
Grant, Looks like you are a chip off the old block. Your dads piece about who they should take was pretty good. If you wrote that same thing on this blog you would be at 500 hits in about 2 hours.
Sackage, that was a good one. I had to check my dictionary to see if that was a new word : )
@Jack:
While I too like the term “sackage,” the elder Mr. Cohn is dead wrong about the cause of the 49ers sackage problem.
@Claude, I tend to agree with him actually. For a guy ad athletic as Smith is, he takes way too many sacks, and loses accuracy when he needs to move his feet out of the pocket.
That is my opinion from watching every snap of his in a 49ers uniform.
@Jack:
I agree that Smith gets sacked too often, but the numbers (at least for 2011) don’t support the theory that the sacks are the result of him holding onto the ball too long.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/under-pressure/2012/under-pressure-violence-rams
Compare the percentage of dropbacks in which Smith is sacked in less than 2.5 seconds to the league average percentage.
@Claude those number show that only 1/3 of Smith’s sackage came in under 2.5 seconds. According to the article you site 2/3 of the sacks were on Smith’s head.
The large majority of the sackage came from holding the ball too long. Elder Cohn was correct.
@msclemons:
Sorry, but that’s not correct.
There is not a single dividing line at 2.5 seconds. If you read the entire article, you will see that there are described three categories of sacks. Quick sacks (those that come in less than 2.5 seconds) are thought to be the fault of the line. Sacks in the 2.5-2.9 seconds range are typical. Long sacks (those that come after 3.0 seconds) are the results of good coverage, receivers not getting open, scrambling/initial sack avoidance by the QB, or the QB holding onto the ball too long. For the purposes of this discussion, let’s assume that all of Smith’s long sacks were solely the result of him holding the ball too long.
Now, go back and look at the numbers.
Smith suffered quick sacks at almost twice the league average (3.3 vs. 1.8). He also suffered typical sacks at a significantly greater rate (3.7 vs. 2.2). The long sacks that Smith took, however, occurred at a rate equal to (actually slightly lower than) the league average (2.6 vs 2.7).
In addition, the 49ers’ overall sack rate was among the league’s worst.
Those numbers suggest pretty strongly that the problem was with the offensive line.
*Now, let’s go back and look at the numbers.
Sorry, I didn’t mean to order anyone around.
@Claude,
Your statistics still show that Smith holds onto the ball too long. If you want to use sacks in the 2.5-2.9 second range as being on the QB, he is almost twice the league average in that category, (3.7 compared to 2.2), thus proving what both Mr Cohn and I have stated, he holds onto the ball too long.
As for the high number of sacks in under 2.5 seconds, hopefully by adding receivers who can beat the defense and get open quickly, along with better play from the o-line we can see that number reduced in 2012.
@Jack:
If you want to use sacks in the 2.5-2.9 second range as being on the QB, he is almost twice the league average in that category, (3.7 compared to 2.2)
But why would you want to do that? It’s sacks that come after 3 seconds or longer that are properly treated as “being on the QB.” According to a Football Outsiders (FO) study of sacks in 2009 and 2010, the average time of all sacks was 3 seconds, and the mean was 2.8 seconds.
http://footballoutsiders.com/under-pressure/2011/under-pressure
The 2011 report that I linked to also made it clear that FO does not consider sacks in the 2.5-2.9 second range as “being on the QB.” Instead of falling in the “quick” or “long” categories, those sacks are what the author calls “normal” sacks. Moreover, if you read the author’s explanation of how bad the Rams’ o-line was in 2011, you will see that he clearly does not place blame for the 2.5-2.9 second range sacks on the Rams’ QBs. To the contrary, he suggests that leading the league in that category reflects poorly on the Rams’ line.
By the way, the report linked to in this comment shows that Alex Smith’s rate of long sacks (3.0 seconds or longer) also was below league average in 2010.
Because I misread your previous comment on how they broke the numbers down. I still stand by my observation that a guy as athletic as Smith should be able to use his feet and escape the pocket more regularly.
Thanks for the clarification Claude.
I have to admit I prefer Football Outsiders evaluation of sacks over Pro Football Reference. PFR puts the full blame for sacks on the QB (ESPN does the same thing with it’s QBR). That seems wrong to me.
Looking a little further – it’s nice to see Martz continued his quest to kill every quarterback in the NFL. Look at Chicago’s adjusted sack rate. Martz being fired may have literally saved Cutler’s life.
@Jack:
I still stand by my observation that a guy as athletic as Smith should be able to use his feet and escape the pocket more regularly.
I am sure there are individual sacks that Smith should have avoided. If you look at the FO stats for QB broken tackles, which includes escaping possible sacks (Houdinis), however, you will see that Smith was among the league leaders.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2012/broken-tackles-2011
Then again, those numbers show that Smith escaped 4 out of possible 48 sacks, or 1 out of every 12. Maybe that number is not so great, but we can’t know for sure without seeing the ratio for other QBs.
@msclemons: I never have understood QBR’s arbitrary assignment of all blame upon the QB. It seems counter intuitive and lazy. I also am not a big fan of assigning the same random percentage blame to every QB because doing so assumes that every QB plays behind the same quality o-line, every QB is equally decisive, etc. when those things are not true. Some QBs take sacks because their lines suck, some QBs take sacks because they are indecisive. It makes no sense to treat all sacks the same.
FO’s treatment at least makes an attempt to distinguish sacks caused by bad line play from sacks caused by other factors (good defensive coverage, indecisive QBs, etc.)
PFT posted some video links of the first ESPN televised draft – 1981. Lawrence Taylor, Ronnie Lott and a whole lot of really bad hair.
The draft and ESPN sure have come a long way in 30 years.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2QYsqKjojhI&feature=relmfu
My memory of Doc Z comes from the great Bill Walsh 1986 draft. He kept bitchin about the 49ers passing over Mike Ruth a short-armed d-lineman from Boston College who never amounted to anything in the NFL as the GENIUS traded back multiple times and went on to record one of the greatest talent accusations ever recorded in draft history.
Zimmerman kept saying “What are the 49ers doing”, as Walsh continued trading back. Of course the answer to Zs question was–Merlin is waving his magic wand.
The 1986 draft was an all time classic. Eight starters in one draft is just ridiculous.
msc, here is an old SI article detailing how Walsh made that draft happen.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1136972/index.htm
Thanks Jack for posting that article. It was the 85 and 86 drafts that really got me interested in the draft. I had always paid attention to it but after only having a USA Today and SF Chron sports section to read about the 86 draft I decided to buy my first draft book in 87. Harris Barton, Terrance Flagler and Jeff Bregal. Boy I thought Bregal was gonna be good. Another over-hyped USC player.
Scout says Fleener “might be the most overrated guy in the draft”
Posted by Evan Silva on April 22, 2012, 3:33 PM EDT
AP
Bob McGinn and Tyler Dunne have been churning out info-packed draft prospect rundowns in the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel over the past several days. McGinn is tight with a large number of league evaluators, and gets them to talk about players leading up to the draft. Some conversations are off the record, others off. Some reviews from the scouts are negative, and others are positive.
When reading the Journal-Sentinel‘s tight end rundown, one scout’s observations regarding Stanford tight end Coby Fleener caught our eye.
“He wasn’t even the best tight end on their team,” the scout said. “No. 11 [sophomore Levine Toilolo], that’s the real deal. [Fleener] might be the most overrated guy in the draft. He’s awful as a blocker.”
Blocking isn’t a strength of Fleener’s, and that’s pretty well known. But the scout also expressed skepticism about Fleener’s athleticism, which generated buzz at Stanford’s March 22 Pro Day.
“Despite his workout numbers he’s not really a quick-twitch, dymamic-moving guy. He’s a straight-line, build-up player,” the scout explained. “All these reports about him being an athlete and this and that, they’re assuming that because he ran fast. He’s really just a red-zone, jump-ball player.”
I wonder if Harbaugh agrees with this “scout”.
We’ll find out in 4 days. I do know that Fleener was widely regarded as a mid 2nd round pick before the Combine and pro days. The draftniks went gaga for Coby after the underwear olympics but teams don’t usually radically alter their draft boards based on those events.
I like him at #30 for the 49ers but I won’t be at all upset if Baalke goes a different direction.
ms,
Well said.
Fleener is a good player, but he is overrated. It happens every year. If he didn’t go to Stanford people on this board would not value him so much. To me, he is a Todd Heap caliber player, not a Antonio Gates or Jimmy Graham. Todd Heap was chosen 31st in 2001, which is about where Fleener should be chosen. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him off the board earlier, but I wouldn’t package a bunch of picks in a trade to get him.
@BigP, msclemons:
Although fans and draftniks can be prone to overrating (and underrating) players, I am reasonably confident that Baalke has accurately rated the players on the 49ers’ draft board.
It’s been a long time since I felt that way about the guy making the 49ers’ draft day decisions.
CB,
I completely agree with you. I think Baalke definitely knows what he is doing and he does it with conviction. You gotta love that after years of futility.
@Claude I agree with that 100% Baalke proved his mettle last year.
It amazes me that a guy who was part of the Nolan/McDrunkAgain/Singletary staffs has been so good at personnel moves.
@BigP:
I just wish he had had final say in 2010. The 49ers might have something to show for their 2nd and 4th round picks that year.
Yes, I realize that I am putting a lot of stock in something that has not been conclusively established. But last year’s draft would seem to support the theory that Singletary was responsible for the seemingly unnecessary trade up for Davis and for the Mays pick.
@claude balls:
I agree. I think Davis will end up being a very good tackle, but the Mays selection was a joke. I can’t believe Singletary started him for six games. It’s pretty crazy that Davis is entering his third year in the league and is only 22 years old.
Fleener is a much better athlete than Todd Heap ever was.
Heap caught 6 TDs in college and averaged 14.5 yards per catch. Fleener is clearly the superior prospect.
BigP, “If he didn’t go to Stanford people on this board would not value him so much.”
I am sure that our familiarity with him has something to do with it. I haven’t seen any mock draft from a national guy that has him in the first round.
Regardless, he would strengthen our greatest weakness from last year, 3rd down and red zone efficiency. If they can hold off and take him at 30, that would allow them to get aggressive with the later picks which are lost costly.
Jack Hammer,
I agree. I would be happy with him at #30, that would be more in line with his value. I think he is talented, I just don’t think he is the elite prospect that some make him out to be. If you listen to some of the people on this board you would think he is better then Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates, Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski because he ran a 4.45 in underwear with the wind at his back. Grant said it best, “Running a fast 40 requires a certain amount of technique that has nothing to do with football.” Which is why people shouldn’t evaluate a football player based on his 40 yard dash, but it seems to happen often here.
As it gets nearer to draft day I too feel Flenner is over-rated. The main point in his selection is that Coach knows him inside and out. I believe they are going to take the best player available. I made out a mock draft at NFL.com, didn’t use any scientific data process or anything but somehow I came up with Dre Kirkpatrick. I picked for each teams needs and he fell off the radar. My long shot is Vinny Curry.
@msc
“It amazes me that a guy who was part of the Nolan/McDrunkAgain/Singletary staffs has been so good at personnel moves.”
Remember, that most of the Niner Pro Bowlers and starters who were responsible for last year were picked by those same people.
Those people who sucked before, suddenly got good with….good coaching.
I have my likes and dislikes in the draft. That is just a personel thought process. I in no way think that I no more then Baalke-Harbaugh. Until proven otherwise I am completly on board with whomever they pick and when they pick them. They can trade up or back or whatever they do is just fine with me. As far as the so called draft experts some are going to be right and some are going to be wrong. Each year is different, the ones wright this year could be wrong next year. Another words I place little stock in any of the so called experts. The draft is a crapshoot. One does its homework and hope that it proves out. Got four more days till the draft and then we will know.
Thats a fair point undercenter. Many experts weren’t that impressed with the 49ers draft class last season (I wasn’t that enamoured with it either), but once you saw those guys play you knew Baalke and Harbaugh had nailed it.
For those of you who don’t have insider membership on ESPN, here’s an excerpt from a Chris Sprow article about draft dilemmas.
San Francisco 49ers at No. 30
Dilemma: Air it out or assure what defines you?
San Francisco added Randy Moss and Mario Manningham to help cure the disease at wide receiver. But they also know Alex Smith is simply limited in his ability to exploit teams down the field. They have a huge need at right guard and could take Kevin Zeitler (Wisconsin) and help assure the offense can create a lot of second-and-5 situations via the run. At wide receiver, burners Stephen Hill or Kendall Wright could make the wide receiver corps a legit strength. But there’s a wild card. Top tight end Coby Fleener (whom Jim Harbaugh coached at Stanford) could provide even more versatility to the offense as teams scramble to deal with two dangerous tight ends when paired in formations with Vernon Davis (see: New England). It would actually work even more to Smith’s strengths (easy passes; limiting turnovers) than another deep option.
Our vote: Skip the wide receivers and take Fleener or Zeitler if available.
That was the conclusion I came to as well with my only concern being his medical issues specifically his back, but after seeing him participate in the ESPN Science demonstration those concerns were alleviated. Fleener is my pick and I would trade up to get him if I had to. It remains to be seen if Coach Harbaugh agrees.
Razor,
I’d rather see us pick up a receiver. I don’t want to hear the excuse for Alex when he can’t even throw to Fleener. In addition to that, I think guard might be the wY the Niners will go. My pick has been Konz from Wisconsin. I think we need to secure that position.
Fleener can split wide as a “receiver” and thats another reason to like what he brings to the table. He can line up virtually anywhere and create the matchup nightmares defenses will not wake up from.
Grant,Tyson won. Paaaaaarrrty! Your only 25 once. or 26,27,28,29. After that,you try to stay the same..
On another note, Braylon is a good dude.
http://t.co/dDT7KJtZ
One thing we shouldn’t call Brandon Jacobs is slow…
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d828830a3/article/brandon-jacobs-remains-2-fast-2-furious-in-new-jersey?module=HP11_content_stream
He’s channeling his inner Vin Diesel, that’s fantastic. He just seems like one of those dudes that will get into trouble when his playing days are over.
Does your dad know as of right now,his blog is down?
@Stan
Grant usually doesn’t show up till later in the day.
I suggest you call the Press Democrat using their contact information to tell them that Lowell’s site is down.
Is that a bad thing?
For those who believe that a team can never have too many good pass rushers and that the 49ers should not avoid drafting one if he is available for good value, Football Outsider has released its ratings/projections for edge pass rushers (4-3 DEs and 3-4 OLBs) in this year’s draft:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2012/sackseer-2012
FO’s sack prediction stat is complicated (at least I think so), and I had to read the article twice to feel comfortable that I somewhat understand what goes into it. Thus, I don’t feel particularly competent trying to explain it. Read for yourself and come to your own conclusions.
The upshot is that FO rates this year’s group of pass rushers as pretty poor. Nick Perry is the only close-to-elite guy in the group. I have no idea whether he will be available at 30, but it looks like he would be good value at that spot. I leave it to those who have seen him play whether he can play OLB in the 3-4.
I’m not the first to say this but I’m getting my opinion out there. We are not drafting Coby Fleener. Those that think we’ll fill our WR need with a 6’6″ 250 pound lineman/receiver are smoking too much of the wacky tobacy.
If we didn’t already have Vernon Davis AND we did have the receivers that we do currently have then I could consider us bringing in Fleener but to use that high of a draft pick on a player that we not only already have but have locked up for awhile AND still gets underutilized, you all can run your teams that way but good luck.
Our first round pick WILL be used on an interior lineman either offense or maybe even defense but the line is where the pick is going.
Not sure how a RG or DL helps us in 3rd down conversions or in the Green Zone. If Fleener is there and Harbaugh passes on him I will defer to his judgement.
“If Fleener is there and Harbaugh passes on him I will defer to his judgement”
/chuckle that’s kind of a funny statement. Do you have any choice anyway? If he does pick Fleener are we to assume from that statement it’s because of your judgement? ;)
No I did not mean to infer anything other than if Harbaugh passes on Fleener it would say a lot about how he feels about the player. Also I have full confidence in this staff to get the right players. I am nothing more than a fan who opines on my favorite topic.
I agree with Razor. If Fleener is there and JH and Baalke pass on him it will reflect the opinion of the #1 expert on Fleener in the NFL(JH).
I don’t see the need for a D lineman ,since we already have the best D line in football and we have 3 really good prospects already on the team to step in if we need a future replacement (Dobbs,Williams,Tukufau). Why draft another Dobbs or Williams,when they are already on the team with a years experience in the system ?
We need a receiver to replace Moss in a year and who knows how long Manningham or even Crabs will stay around.
We need an O lineman ,but I wouldn’t be surprised if we brought in a vet ,after the draft and after cut downs,to compete with the young guys we have and maybe draft another one later in this draft (not #1).
In addition to receiver we need another OLB (not interior D lineman)and Safety and we have a real need for a RB imho.
But like Razor said,for the first time in a long time we can trust Baalke and JH to make pretty good choices.
Tim, I don’t see a DL in round 1 either, but they could add one later. Watch for Akiem Hicks from Regina by way of LSU in the middle rounds.
Our first round pick WILL be used on an interior lineman either offense or maybe even defense but the line is where the pick is going.
And so it shall be; otherwise Faithful is taking his ball and going home.
If anyone missed this, here’s Greg Cosell on Justin Blackmon: “I had a number of concerns the more tape I studied, and this is where the transition to the NFL becomes interesting. Blackmon did not consistently explode out of his breaks at the intermediate level. That was the result of a tendency to run too upright on his vertical stem. That can certainly be coached, and it’s always important to remember that no player entering the NFL is a finished product. One thing I’m not sure can be coached, though, is Blackmon’s lack of vertical explosiveness. He did not show a second gear on tape. He was a measured, methodical, one-speed receiver.”
That helps explain why Blackmon averaged a measly 12.6 yards per catch last season.
He’s this years Crabtree.
So rocket.
Would you draft him or not? If not, then why keep MC? And something better than “salary cap reasons” since at this moment, the Niners are not in salary cap hell.
@DS, “since at this moment, the Niners are not in salary cap hell.”
How do you figure?
Because….they are not Jack.
Maybe you’re not seeing the word “not” in that sentence.
The Niners are in a good salary cap situation. If not, no reporters have suggested that they are not.
DS,
I’d draft him, but not in the top ten which is where he is likely to go just like Crabtree. The comparison is based on the fact that like Crabtree, I think Blackmon will prove to be a better College player than pro. However that doesn’t mean they don’t have value. Crabtree whether you like him or not, was our leading receiver. He’s a #2 caliber WR that is miscast in the #1 role due to his draft position.
They’re limited because they’re productive mainly from the slot, mainly on short and intermediate routes in the NFL.
Watched the Top 10 Draft Classes last night on NFL Network. The ’83 Bears were #4, but one thing Ditka said that caught my attention was how with their power running game they needed a receiver who could get deep.
Harbaugh follows in the footsteps of his mentors, Schembechler, Ditka, and Walsh. His offense and defense play like the those teams as well. That being said, I can see them going for Hill if he is available at 30 and letting him develop behind Moss and Manningham, the two offseason receivers who are also vertical, outside type receivers.
Anyone else share that opinion?
I watched a lot of his games and Mr. Hill dropped a ton of passes. I don’t envision him helping this team right away but again I defer to the experts. If Hill and Fleener are there at 30 I’m taking Fleener, but I would not be surprised to see Mr. Baalke take Hill.
If Baalke took Hill over Fleener, that would be a mistake.
Grant, I am not ashamed to admit my draft crush is Fleener. I think he can help the team from day 1.
Will there be a final mock?
Yes there will be. I’m going to link to Cosell’s later this afternoon and then I’ll post mine on Wednesday.
I agree.
HA, I knew it. There was no way you were coming up with all that Blackmon trash talk on your own. Now I’m really curious, do actually have any of your own opinions on players or should we just start directing all of our questions to Cosell?
The Denver Post on Coby Fleener: http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_20456134/stanfords-coby-fleener-is-top-tight-end-available
“Which will bring the teams that really want passing-game impact player back to Fleener. And the team that takes him in the first round will decide you don’t pull a camper with a Ferrari, and to pass on Fleener because he may not be an upper-tier blocker may force a team to watch him catch touchdowns for somebody else.”
Grant, I agree with Fleener over Hill.
Hill is an intriguing player, but his pedestrian college numbers throw up to many red flags. The thing with Hill is that he is a complete mystery. He will either be a pro-bowl WR or be a complete miss.
Fleener looks to be NFL ready although he has yet to face NFL LB’ and Safeties who may run as fast as him and hit like semi trucks.
Fleener may be better served to add more muscle to help at the point of attack.
love how this draft is shaping up: seems like a number of teams with picks between #3 and #15 are leaking the possibility of a trade down.
normally, these leaks outnumber actual trades by a large multiple: most teams have enough needs that they cant afford passing on the chance to bring in a #2, 3, or 4 rounder in the same or future drafts. but the Niners are clearly an exception, making a trade up quite possible.
the flip side is the Niner cap situation, which after many false alarms in free agent season conceivably could come into play if we go high enough (say, a #3). so a few picks for one hopefully cant miss guy is not only be unduly risky from a roster management standpoint, but possibly a bit too expensive as well. Grant you might have called it right with your earlier post about trading up to #17.
i like Cosell’s reasons for why Blackmon has some negatives (since i dont watch a lot of college ball) – that’s good color – but we already knew this knock.
i still think we have to get a can’t-miss Guard (and Chilo is all you need to remind to remain humble on this concept), but if we think Leonard Davis or another veteran is a solid solution for a SB-quality team, then hell fire away and bring in edge playmaker.
whatever happens, based on the last 2 drafts and the 2012 season, i have complete faith in Baalke and Harbaugh. as the Natural said, pick us out a winner, Baalke!
SF has talked with fa OG Tony Moll. He might be as good or better an option than Leonard Davis. Moll’s wife is expecting and he wants to stay on west coast. He’s talked to Raiders and could re-sign w/SD, but he and his wife are from Sonoma.
fesnyc:
Every team always “leaks” that they might be willing to trade down…up…or sideways. Any smart GM wants to attract offers.There just might be one that is too good to ignore,so they make sure everyone knows they are open for offers. Business as usual,not just this year.
yup. that’s why i said leaks outnumber trades…at least in my 40 yrs of watching the draft ;-)
So basically the criteria you need to be on this list is being an SEC player, Bay Area player or having a high YPC in the SEC.
Why even bother writing about Wright and Blackmon, whom obviously you don’t think much of.
I think a lot of Wright – Jarius Wright.
… at least one thing Grant is good at is being wrong 100% of the time….
@DS …he his not a reporter….he his a site blogger…..if he was a reporter they would list him as a reporter on the site….
@oneniner
This is what it says in the About us tab regarding Grant
“Inside the 49ers is moderated by Grant Cohn, who shares his insights on the 49ers each day, and leads discussions on all football and team topics. Grant Cohn has written for the Press Democrat and is a regular contributor to CSNBayArea.com.”
I read that as reporter (he has written actual articles in the paper)/site moderator.
…Instant 49er is under PressDemocrat….
I read that has Grant’s paycheck is really from PressDemocrat…….
Check the contact us of Press Democrat
He his not listed as a reporter but his dad his…..
@oneniner
You are splitting hairs my friend.
The “scientist” title is usually only given to those with a PhD, or a ton of experience or a ton of promotions.
You can get a BA in science and not be called a scientist. Even though you are. The title of the job may not match what you really are as far as the rest of the world is concerned.
Grant is a reporter. He got a degree in something related to writing. He is working for a paper. He has written articles that appear in the Press Democrat.
Don’t be stuck on Grant having a “reporter” title. The title is just a word. The job is basically a reporter. He talks, conveys what the players said. Just like dad.
not 100% sure about this but i will think if you are a reporter of a team, you usually travel with them…..
….dude ain’t travelling with this team……and am still waiting for one article where he quotes a source he has in the organization…..
bottomline…there is more to being a reporter than just managing a blog…….
kinda funny…..Grant is actually a Blog manager……if you consider the criteria he used on Alex as a game manager
..I like the pick…..the Rams would have picked him up next couple of picks….
…..the competition at WR is 4 real now….Crabtree got the memo this morning
@oneniner
Not if MC doesn’t check the news. He didn’t know who the Niner QB was going to be when all the rest of the world did. He still thinks he did fine in that title game. That it was the coach and AS who just need to “throw it up and give him a chance at the ball”. Not really caring that by doing so, you risk a TO. And the Giants won that game because of….Turnovers.
Gotta trust the pick just because Baalke and Harbaugh have earned that. How good a draft pick is going to be is not determined before the draft, it’s determined by how hard they work, whether they stay healthy, and whether they fit in the system. I don’t think the Crabtree pick was bad, he was a great college player and is talented, but he doesn’t seem to have worked hard enough or to be a good fit (Obviously you could also blame the coaches/quarterback). It’s easy to look at a high pick who’s had a bad career and mock the pick, but most likely things went wrong after the pick that the talent evaluator could not have anticipated.
Also, is Grant’s blog intentionally bad to encourage heated debate? It’s like he’s never watched a single football game before, and yet he always has very strong opinions. He predicted that Kalil would fall to 13? He thinks Delanie Walker is too short and has bad hands? I think he’s an idiot-savant at bringing in new readers who hate him.