Yesterday we broke down how the Niners match up with the Green Bay Packers.
Today, let’s check out how they match up with their main NFC West rivals – the Seattle Seahawks.
49ERS DEFENSE VS. SEAHAWKS OFFENSE: Seattle signed Aaron Rodgers’ backup and Mike McCarthy’s newest quarterback protégé, Matt Flynn. Although he’s only started two games in his NFL career, he’s performed marvelously in both of those games and many experts expect him to be the best QB in the NFC West this season. We’ll see about that.
He’s going to benefit from his running game. At times Marshawn Lynch looked like the best running back in football last season. Let’s see if he can keep it up when he’s not playing for a contract.
The offense will operate from a base two-tight end formation, and the two TEs are very good – Zach Miller and Kellen Winslow Jr. Winslow’s recorded more than 700 receiving yards five times in his career, including his last three seasons. Miller had a down season last year, but he was coming off three straight years of recording more than 680 receiving yards. A two-tight formation is a good way to try to attack the Niners defense because it brings more blockers in to slow down the Niners elite pass rush. Also, Winslow and Miller can attack the middle of the field in the passing game – the spot where the Niners coverage is the least excellent.
Still, the Niners should be able to shut down Winslow and Miller because the Seahawks don’t have enough talent at wide receiver. The Niners can focus their coverage on the tight ends. The only Seattle receiver who’s a playmaker is slot receiver Doug Baldwin. Until the Seahawaks get playmakers outside the hash marks, the Niners will be able to stack the box with their safeties, clog the middle of the field and shut down the Seahawks offense.
Advantage: 49ers.
49ERS OFFENSE VS. SEAHAWKS DEFENSE: Ted Ginn Jr. scored two touchdowns on special teams against the Seahawks last season – the exact number of touchdowns the entire Niners offense scored against Seattle’s defense in 2011: A 1-yard run by Alex Smith in the first game and a 4-yard run by Frank Gore in the second.
Here are more numbers: The Niners offense converted 4 of 26 third downs against Seattle. That’s 15%.
Of those four first downs, one was a pass by Alex Smith. It was third and three and Smith completed a seven yard pass to Braylon Edwards.
To recap: Smith converted one third down passing and had zero touchdowns against the Seahawks last season. He also took 7 sacks.
Now, the Seahawks have upgraded their pass rush. They drafted Bruce Irvin in the first round, to be a rare strong-side situational pass rusher. They already have Chris Clemons, an excellent pass rusher, on the weak side – Aldon Smith’s side. Now they have Irvin a 245 lb. speed rusher to attack Anthony Davis on third downs. Davis doesn’t usually face speed rushers at right tackle. Against the Seahawks he will, and he’ll have his hands full.
Can Alex Smith improve his production against the Seahawks this season? You’d think so, because he has new receivers and a better grasp of Greg Roman’s offense. But if his offensive line can’t keep him on his feet, he won’t be able to take advantage of his new weapons.
Advantage: Seahawks.
I think these teams will split their two contests next season – both will win at home. These rosters are too evenly matched for Harbaugh to continue his complete dominance of Pete Carroll. Carroll has built his roster to try and take down his main rival and the division’s top dog – Harbaugh’s Niners. His team will be able to keep the games close and scratch out a win in Seattle.
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Grant, will you ever have the Niners offense winning a matchup against an opposing defense that isn’t awful? I see this becoming a trend.
Seattle’s D is pretty good but at this point, the potential SF has on offense outweighs what Seattle has established on the defensive side of the ball.
Seattle’s D was an extremely tough matchup for the Niners last season and they’ll be an even tougher one next season. They’re young, they can stop the run, they can cover, they can create turnovers and they just added a strong-side speed rusher for passing downs. He could be a serious matchup problem for the Niners.
“Seattle’s D was an extremely tough match up for the Niners last season and they’ll be even tougher this season.”
Grant, the 9ers didn’t upgrade the offense this year? Give them some credit for once!
Absolutely they did. Here’s my logic.
The talent they added (Moss and Manningha) mostly runs intermediate and deep routes. Ideally, they open up things underneath for Crabtree on third downs.
But Smith needs time to make that throw, and if Irvin’s too quick for A.D., the whole offense has a problem.
GC, I hear you but look for more creativity on offense this year with specialized plays based on matchup packages. There is a reason TB/JH focused on offense in FA and the draft. Also, I wouldn’t expect BIrvin to match AldSmiths productivity from last year and AD will continue to progress and get better. AD will win that battle.
For the 49ers offense to get the better of the Seahawks defense it will come down to how well they run the ball. Seattle’s pass defense is very strong, and matches up well with the 49ers pass offense. They were already very good in coverage, and they’ve added a new pass rushing DT/ DE (Jason Jones), a speed rusher on the edge (Bruce Irvin) and a good 3 down LB (Bobby Wagner).
They also have a pretty decent run defense, but not as strong as their pass defense. This will be where the 49ers need to attack the Seahawks, rotating the RBs to present different challenges along the ground. Then they can use the play action to take some shot plays.
Grant have you forgot that this offense when they played Sea last seaon the first time had NOOO time together. And their defensive pass rush will be OK, not top notch. Our O-line will dominate this season. Remember everyone likes to use the “continuity” thing with Smith, but our O-line has had the same treatment. I believe we will split only because when we play up there it will be after a tough week. 9ers blow them out at home this season. Sea pushes for a wildcard, but doesnt make it. ARZ defense??? Thats going to be the tough one.
You guys are forgetting how competitive BOTH of those games were last year.
Game 1 was a 2 point game until Ginn went off.
Game 2 was in jeopardy until Grant forced the fumble on 49er territory on the last drive.
These are going to be very difficult games.
Jack. The game at home will be a blowout. Gent bet?
md, Are you talking about the Thursday night game at Candlestick? What do you consider a blow out?
plus 17….at the stick
md,
I’ll take that bet. : )
Jeff. Who are you? Not trying to be rude, but I make bets with names I see daily.
We win both games. Seattle is a 7-9 team til they prove otherwise!
“The talent they added (Moss and Manningha) mostly runs intermediate and deep routes.”
Really? In Harbaughs offense this is what they’ll do? or this is what they did for their previous teams? How does that translate to this offense? Lets try to give Harbaugh a little credit in the imagination department? We will run more than one play!
We will beat Seattle in both games and it wont really be close IMO!
And the Niners won both games…The Niners have a better D, Better O, and a better Coaching staff… Advantage NINERS….
And the 49ers Offense “won’t” be better this year then?
Nonsense
But you’re probably right about both Teams winning at Home.
Both offenses will be limited although I do think the Seahawks can be run on. Brock is getting up there in age, the linebackers seem to be MIA and Red Bryant just got paid. I expect we’ll see a LOT of Gore, Hunter and James in these two games.
The Seahawks don’t have anything behind Lynch at running back. If he is hurt or ineffective they’ll have to be one-dimensional on offense. I don’t see a QB with 2 games starting experience having a good day against Vic Fangio’s defense if he’s forced to throw a lot.
The 49ers also have a significant edge on special teams. I expect a repeat of last year – two tough games decided by the special teams units.
Brock isn’t on the Seahawks any more. Their D-line is Chris Clemons, Jason Jones, Brandon Mebane and Red Bryant, with Bruce Irvin subbing in for Bryant on passing downs. That’s a very good line.
They let Brock go? Pity… that was a guaranteed running lane.
Clemons is solid, Jones and Mebane are JAGs and I’m curious to see how Bryant reacts to the big pay day. I don’t believe Irvin will be much of a factor in 2012.
I think Irvin and Clemons will each record 10+ sacks, and Jones will get 5+.
Seattle gave up an average of 3.8 yards a carry last season (4th in the NFL). The Niners gave up 3.5 yards a carry (1st in the NFL). The Seahawks can stop the run, and this year they’ll be able to really pressure the quarterback. That’s a recipe for a dominant defense.
Good projection but needs to be validated on the field. We’ll see…
Grant,
Seattle’s defense is not as dominant on the road. Decent, but not as good. They don’t pack it for road games. That 12th man they have at home is amazing.
The Seahawks held the Niners offense to 1-12 on third down and 1-5 in the red zone at Candlestick last season.
Grant,
Who didn’t hold us to 1-12 on 3rd down????? That was our game average! Lol
Its a big and nasty line, I think one of the most underated in the league.
Grant, what do you think of the job Carroll is doing in SEA?
I think he’s assembled an excellent young defense that will keep him employed and competitive for years.
But I’m always skeptical of defensive head coaches. They’re somewhat of a hostage to the offensive coordinator and quarterback.
That is always the challenge for defensive minded coaches. That offense, like ours needs to really elevate itself this year.
Altough I think the Niners are more talented, they seem to have a lot of the same question marks going into the season.
It’s going to be the key rivalry in the division as long as Carroll and Harbaugh are around.
I agree with FDM, the Seahawks DL is underrated. I disagree with msclemons about Jones and Mebane – Jones is a good pass rushing DT and Mebane is a solid NT, hard to move. Bryant isn’t your typical DE, he’s built like a NT, but he’s good against the run and gets some push. Clemons just needs some help putting pressure on the QB and he’ll become a regular 8 – 10 sack a season player – and that help will come from Jones and Irvin. Seahawks defense will be tough this year, but I think the 49ers run game matches up pretty well against their D.
Have to agree with Grant. The games are usually very competitive with Seattle and their stadium is really tough to win in. They have a very good defense and running game. The question marks are on offense much like with the Niners. Their Oline is suspect, their WR’s are average and they have question marks at QB. I’m interested to see how Flynn does with the pressure of having to be the savior at QB for this team.
A split seems about right.
Our Lb’s are the best in the game period!!! they will not do anything against our D Flynn or not!! Plus we owe their QB a dislocated shoulder….
I agree that the Seahawks are getting better, but so are the Niners. The Niners are becoming scary good. And our coaching staff is leaps and bounds better then Seattle’s. I expect the Niners to surprise everyone again and become one of the most dominant teams in the league this year. They will beat Seattle in both games this year.
ESPN NFL – Giants WR Hakeem Nicks fractures bone in right foot during OTA workout, recovery time is 12 weeks.
WOW!!
Wow indeed. Still, he should be back for the start of the season, and he’ll probably be full strength by the playoffs.
Silver lining for them: Rueben Randle’s development will get a jump start.
And here’s a thought: If the Niners were to cut Kyle Williams, wouldn’t the Giants be all over him?
Grant,
He will be available. They can have him. The game is too big for Kyle. 4 concussions! It’s time for him to ask his dad if his dad needs some help. How can you have confidence returning punts or crossing the middle of an NFL football field with a concussion history like that?? Especially after this head trauma talk in this offseason?
Crazy Prediction: If Kyle Williams can blow it up this year in training camp he will make the team as #5 WR.
If they go with a similar roster set up to last year they can keep 5 WR’s, and Ginn as the #6/return man.
Jack,
Who have you ever seen blow anything up
With Smith at QB?? Kyle may as well start packing his bags now. It’s a numbers game and the numbers dint favor him.God forbid , if he gets another concussion. He will not play another down after the next one.
Jordo,
Kyle will be ok. In training camp he has 3 other QB’s to throw to him. Lol! : )
Nicks isnt projected to miss any games. They’re saying 12 weeks
Grant, why do you keep failing to talk about or factor in the Niner’s running game in your analysis? You even mentioned Seattle’s running game and Marshawn Lynch but nothing about the Niners’s run game which is the backbone of their offense. It’s not 7 on 7 (that’s where the QB, RBs, TEs and WRs play catch against a defense’s LBs and DBs. ).
Also, I’m no fan of Bruce Irvin. I haven’t seen one highlight of him while he’s making a sack where he successfully engages a blocker and is able to bend or use a technique to get by the O-lineman. All he does is try to run around the blocker and when he can’t he stutter steps like a running back trying to find the hole at the line of scrimmage. He may cause some speed problems for Anthony Davis but for the most part NFL linemen are not going to allow Irvin to simply run around them with out getting their hands on him.
I don’t think either team will run on each other effectively this season. Both defenses are too good at stopping the run.
Irvin will cause a speed problem for plenty of right tackles, not just Davis.
No right NFL right tackle will just let Irvin run around them without getting a hand on him. Run around pass rushing didn’t work for Quinton Groves, Everette Brown or Vernon Gholston to name a few more recent highly touted pass rushers to come out of the draft over the past 5-6 years.
Were they rushing from the strong side or the weak side? Did they play all downs or just passing downs?
Grant,
I am surprised how many WR’s Harbaugh has added to the stables! I thought he would be big on adding more T.E.’s? Other then Bynum coming back from injury, any dark horse candiates coming out of that relm? Hopefully their will be a lot of good football in the NFC West!
Doesn’t matter what side or what downs. Pass blocker hands on the rusher is the point. College Air Sacks and Run Around Sacks typically don’t translate to the NFL. Because NFL Tackles get their hands on pass rushers (usually unless there is confusion over blocking assignments) pass rushing takes bend/balance, technique moves and counter moves. Aldon Smith has bend and (surprisingly) bull rush moves (maybe he picked it up from Justin Smith).
Every highlight sack I saw of Irvin showed him simply running by or around the blocker. And every time a blocker got their hands on him he paused and looked like a running back looking for a hole in the pass protection to run by or around and by then the only way he made a play was to run it down from behind…he never made the sack.
as for the run game. it’s not the number of yards that count. rarely in the NFL today is when the run game dominates a game. some teams can take over a game with their run game but usually not consistently. a team like the Falcons are a run first team but usually have to rely on the pass. Teams like Green Bay, New Orleans and the Patriots simply use the run game to supplement their passing games. But the supplementation is important. If you shut that down you cause problems for the passing game.
In the case of Seattle and SF, both are pretty much run heavy teams playing against strong run defenses. Again it’s not the total number of yards but the quality of the yards you get from the running game. But it’s still important as to which team is able to get into 2nd and 5 vs. 2nd and 8. Which team can power their way into the end zone when inside the 20. Which team can power their way out of their own 20 by not passing and running conservatively inside the 20 and decreasing the chance of turn over on your side of the field. Remember Harbaugh and Carroll both play the field position game as major factor in their offensive decision making.
Grant, why do you believe the 49ers running game will not be effective against the Seahawks? The running game was the only part of the offense that was effective for the 49ers last season against them. From memory, in the second meeting Kendall Hunter had a pretty good game, as the 49ers kept the ball on the deck. I think the 49ers will go a similar approach this year but will rotate the RBs even more.
The Seahawks shut down the Niners run game in the first contest. I don’t think the Niners will average 4 yards a carry against the Seahawks this season.
You can’t read too much into the first game of last season. Neither team had a proper offseason to get ready. The running game didn’t get on track until Rachal was replaced by Snyder. The 2nd game I think provides a much better indication of how the two teams match up.
Just read the comment below (sorry, can’t read the name of the commentor) – it pretty much sums up my thoughts.
@rebelscum74 They say the TE from Stanford Konrad Rueland is catching everything he can get his hands on. Word is he remained on the practice squad last year to improve his blocking.
He’s my dark horse pick to eventually replace Delanie Walker, once he improves his blocking. He is after all 260, so he’s big enough to be effective.
Last year’s first game was both teams (particularly the 49ers) trying to establish themselves early in the season with no off season. So the Offense was still a work in progress.
I think the second game gives us a better idea of how each team plays and matches up when more of their cylinders are firing.
Lynch – 21 Attempts for 107 yards 1 TD (I think it was the Niner’s 1st rushing touchdown they gave up last year…which proves my point about the importance of the running game in the redzone).
Gore – 23 attempts for 83 Yards 1 TD.
Hunter – 12 attempts for 73 Yards
Smith – 5 attempts for 22 Yards.
Willis didn’t play that game. Lynch won’t do that to the Niners again.
And Gore averaged 3.6 yards a carry in that game – hardly a dominating performance.
Hunter did have a nice game. Perhaps he and LaMichael James will be tough matchups for the Seattle defense.
If memory serves me, Grant wasn’t exactly considered a weak link in the defense during Willis’ absence.
Again, it’s not about domination in the run game. it’s not about 5 yards a carry for 100 yards on 20 attempts. being able to execute a 2 yard carry int0 the end zone is just as important. setting up 3rd and 3 vs. 3rd and 6 is HUGE. Getting 3.5 yards on first and 10 inside either 20 is more important than averaging 5 yards on a few carries between the 40′s. You have to understand Tactical field position and field position situational play calling.
It’s quality of yards not quantity or even average.
So my point is that even though in many games the Run Game isn’t the big yards generator that it used to be, it’s still incredibly important and should not be overlooked in analysis.
You’re right – it is important. But I don’t think it will be the deciding factor in either game between the Niners and Seahawks next season.
And Larry Grant isn’t a weak link, but he isn’t Patrick Willis, either.
Grant, every time you do an analysis of the 49er’s offense you usually bring up their poor 3rd down conversion rate. You bring up the passing game as answer to getting out of those 3rd downs.
But the running game greatly increases a team’s odds at converting 3rd down. 3rd and 3 is statistically much easier to convert than 3rd and 7. ask any coach on how to solve 3rd down problems. the first thing they’ll say is not get to a 3rd down. the second thing they will say is to get into a manageable 3rd down situation.
That’s true, but you usually pass on third and three and third and seven, and the Niners were just as bad on third and three as they were on third and seven last season.
I really can’t wait to see if the new additions on offense make any difference to the 3rd down and red zone offense. I’ll be particularly interested to see whether James comes in on 3rd downs. Gore has been the preferred option for years due to his pass protection, but James should be the far more dangerous receiving threat.
Moss and Manningham should also help to open things up for Davis and Crabtree. But it will still come down to can they get open in time and can Smith find the open player for the 1st down with the added pass rush pressure that comes on 3rd down. This could be another reason to bring James in instead of Gore – James you would imagine will have a greater chance of picking up a first down on a check down pass.
you keep fighting me on this…fine. even if the Niner’s fix parts of their passing game to operate closer to the league average, it will still be easier to pass for a 3rd and 3 conversion vs. a 3rd and 7 conversion.
I’ll leave you with this. There is no denying that the backbone offensive philosophies of both Harbaugh and Carroll are the run game. Both have commanded pretty high powered passing attacks in college. But the offenses were still primarily a run based offense (especially in Harbaugh’s case with Stanford. Even with Luck the Stanford Offense was a smash mouth run offense). If anything the Niners showed that they were a Run based offense last year. You could say that it was out of balance due to deficiencies at WR, QB and lack of prep time etc…. but even with a fully functioning QB and wide outs Harbaugh has shown that he still has a power run based philosophy. So I ask you, do you think Harbaugh and Carroll believe the run game is critical factor in their team’s offenses?
Here’s how I look at it: The Niners run D is better than the Seahawks running game, and the Seahawks run D is better than the Niners running game.
Grant
Last year the Niners on 3rd down stank.
Maybe you should move your argument to “Should the Niners (and teams in general) go for it more on 4th down?” That would be interesting.
…and Lynch’s TD came from a blockked punt that gave them 1st and goal inside the 5.
scat back….who hides could be an effective weapon for attacking the edges of the LOS, along with play action,
1st and 2nd downs improvements will lead to better 3rd down efficiencies and successes….that is what Moss and James will provide IMHO
@jg
Do you want to see a lot KH and Johnson in the backfield together? Have two of them running out in opposite directions after the snap and see how the D reacts in covering both.
I tend to lean on throwing out the stats for both teams in the week 1 matchup.
It was pretty clear both of them were suffering effects from the shorter lockout offseason especially the 9ers offense. The 9ers offense still had there struggles through the year but I thought they were a much better offense later in the season than the beginning of it as everyone became more comfortable.
I do agree with the split and each team will probably when at home. Seahawks are my dark horse wild card team because they are basically running the same formula the 9ers did last year but they just aren’t as talented and as well coached.
I agree with Grant for the most part, but you have left out a couple of young additions to the niners. I think AJ will light up the middle of their defense and if he doesn’t LaMichael James will definitel be a factor.
There also seems to be a sense of a forgetfulness about proven playmakers who I believe will be able to make 3rd down plays to move the chains. I don’t think either team will be the same team as they were the year before.
Again…as with the last analysis, Grant you truly do ignore Special Teams. Football is made up of 3 teams and when you overlook special teams you are sure to lose, both in the game and in analysis. How many games did the special teams win for the Niners last year (and which one did they lose)? Was there a better special teams than the Niners? You had Lee and Ackers, pro bowlers at both of their respective positions, pinning offenses deep in their own territory and connecting on field goals that for other teams would be short punts. And lets not forget the Tony Montana crew. Was there a TD returned on that unit?
That unit will again prove vital in every game this year and that was why they beat Seattle as you mentioned and why they will again beat Seattle.
Akers is the obvious stand out in terms of points for the Niner’s special teams units. Also possible run backs by Ginn.
But what is most important in Special Teams is gaining Field Position. The Field Position part of the game is a HUGE tactical consideration used by Harbaugh and Roman (something I was trying to explain in my explanation the run game). Getting a decent run back and not getting stuck inside your own 20 is extremely important. Why do you think the Niners just resigned Andy Lee to a long term contract. Not many teams outside of the Raiders show that much love for a Punter. But Lee helps to pin opposing offenses back as much as possible.
Tactical and Strategic Field Position dominate Harbaugh’s Offensive, Defensive and Special Teams Systems, Philosophy and play calling
Well stated…
The difference between Andy Lee and an average punter last year was the difference between 13-3 and 10-6 or even 9-7. He may have had the single biggest impact of any player on the offense or ST. Second only to Justin on the whole team. As a punter. Yeah, he’s THAT good. And field position is that important.
“Akers is the obvious stand out in terms of points for the Niner’s special teams units.”
I disagree. Akers will make several more FG’s than most FG kickers will in season. Let’s just say 5FG’s.
Andy Lee in contrast, is great at putting the defense in the best position as far from the end-zone (scoring area) as Lechler of the Raiders. If the offense was unable to move the ball downfield after getting the ball in relatively poor field position, the general assumption is that the opponent will start with good position. Well, that practically never happened due to Lee kicking it a mile away. The Defense didn’t have to start the drive with their backs to the wall hardly ever last year. No matter how sucky the offense was. That is Andy Lee and Spillman and the rest doing one great job.
So, I think that Andy Lee saves at least 5 FG’s worth (if not several TD’s on that end).
On the other end, I think Andy Lee set the opponent in bad field position a lot times along with the ST aces fielding the punts before they went into the endzone. Consequently, the defense can go out there and do their thing, and with Ginn returning it, our offense was set in great position to score. So, I figure at least 5 FG’s and several TD’s were the result of Andy Lee’s punting on the Niners scoring side.
In all, that would make for 10FG’s and 4-5 TD’s difference in the season. A lot more than Akers impact.
Between the two, Andy Lee is a harder one to find an equal for.
DS,
you made my point about Lee’s importance.
that’s why I said Akers is OBVIOUSLY the stand out……… it’s because he puts points on the board. the rest of my post was about how lee pin back opposing defenses and how important field position is. I guess I didn’t make that clear in my post.
I interpreted “stand out” to mean the most important/ best one/most critical. And as I read it, Akers was the stand out.
Thanks for clearing it up.
@MJ
The Niners went into just about every single game with a better D and ST than their opponent. That is 2/3 of the game, the Niners were better. All they had to do was not screw it up, and they would win the game. Which they did.
Now, if the offense also showed up like the D/ST always did, then the game was a complete blowout to the tune of the Tampa Bay game. In that game, our offense was clicking on all cylinders, and the darling of 2010 saw the reality of 2011. If our offense can perform like that more consistently this season, GB/Pats/etc. won’t have anything on us come scoring differential by the end of the season.
Agreed! And it will happen!!!
I don’t have a problem with them splitting, but not for the reasons Grant provides. Seattle’s defense is good, not great. Our offense will make greater strides this year than their defense will. We will lose because overall Seattle is an improved team, winning on the road (in division) is always difficult and they have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL. Unless they suck, which they don’t, they probably should win most of their home games. That said, the Seahawks, Cardinals and Rams will all struggle on the road once again. In order to win on the road, you must have a consistent defenses effort. Without question, the Niners D (the league’s best) was consistent, so we will be in every game (repeat, every-single-game). Seattle and the others will continue to have games where they get blown out. Inconsistent D and special teams will cost them…again.
I actually agree with most of Grant’s comments. Having lived up in the Seattle area for about 6 years now, I’ve seen how much the Seahawks have improved the last few years. Last year, the biggest weakness on their team was the QB, who was simply serviceable. They addressed that position in the off-season (as well as getting a pass rusher, an additional quality TE, and a couple of good LBs)…
All of that being said, I’m still not sold on their OL, which has been more inconsistent than even the Niners’ OL in the last couple of years, not to mention injury prone. Seattle also has injury concerns at WR.
At this point, I see the Seahawks as a “poor man’s Niners” this year and possibly more (although I believe the Niners still have better overall talent and a better coaching staff). The teams are built in remarkably similar ways…..dominant run defenses, physical secondaries, and strong, physical running games. Both of these teams are very tough.
Carroll and Co. have definitely added guys this year specifically (or so it seems) to compete with the Niners, so much as I hate to admit it, I also think the two teams will split their games this year.
The way they’ve added players to compete with the Niners reminds me of when the Niners did the same thing to compete with the Rams ten years ago.
It is also very similar to the way that the 49ers added players to compete with the Cowboys back in ’94.
These divisional games are going to be knock down, drag out fights. This division is starting to look very similar to the AFC North. If the Rams offense comes around this could be one of the most competitive divisions in football.
I completely agree.
“The way they’ve added players to compete with the Niners reminds me of when the Niners”
You are giving Sea too much credit. Two 7-9 seasons and now they are competing with the 9ers?!! I think PC is a good DC but I wouldn’t put him in the top 15 of HC’s.
Seattle’s defense ranked fourth in yards per carry allowed and sixth in opponent’s passer rating last season. Their defense is top-flight and improving.
They also improved the most important position with Matt Flynn and Russell Wilson.
Grant, way too much credit. Those stats you use are nice but wins are the best stat. Seems to me PC has a losing record since joining Sea as HC. TBD.
Hofer,
Even though they were 7-9 in 2010 they had to face a 1st place schedule again in 2011. The defense is very tough, and their offense will be much improved if they get the play from Flynn that they expect.
Without Ginn’s two returns late, the 49ers were only 4 points better last year. That’s not much ground to make up.
Jack, you love playing Grant’s alter ego. Have you ever disagreed with him. Do you have your own opinion??!!
Hofer,
Sorry if my agreement here offends you. Take your homer glasses off for a second. Is a 4 point differential over 2 games too much to overcome?
They are a way tougher and improved opponent than many on here are willing to realize.
Jack, I respect your comments and enjoy reading them but it seems you respond whenever I disagree or I’m debating Grant. Have you ever disagreed with Grant?
Speaking for Jack, I think we disagree about Crabtree. He’s optimistic about him, I’m not. I agree with you, Hofer, re: Crabtree. I don’t think he is or ever will be a difference maker in the NFL because he doesn’t get enough separation and he struggles against the press. He’s a slot possession receiver.
Grant, I think MC will have a very good year in 2012. I’ve changed my opinion of him because I think he has changed for the better. He may be a top 12 WR this year.
Hofer,
You must have missed the war of words we had over Mike Martz, and his influence on the strong 3rd down conversion rate of Shaun Hill. It was a real brouhaha.
I still think his firing was the first sign of Singletary’s cluelessness.
There was that, too.
Just for the record, I wasn’t a fan of MMartz or MS. I’m also very happy that AS had difficulties early in his career so that we now have an offensive minded HC that will ensure success for 10+ years.
Regarding your comments, I may be a 9er homer but you are a GC homer. Keep it real!
All I can say is you’re lucky I had to go color Easter eggs : )
Those Easter eggs got me out of a jam.
Hofer, “I may be a 9er homer but you are a GC homer. Keep it real!”
I didn’t really care for his stuff when I first stumbled upon this blog but it has grown on me. There are still times when I think he is crazy when I first read it, but after thinking about it can somewhat see where he is coming from.
I think too often, we have a tendency to get stuck looking at what is right in front of us, and Grant tends to try and push that view further.
And Hof, if I offended you with the homer thing I apologize. I always like your comments, even if I disagree.
PS, I am glad you rattled my cage a little yesterday, I had started to agree with you a little too much too : )
Good post, but I think the Craphawks are still questionable at QB. To me its going to end up like Arz with Kolb. NOOO O-line help. And Flynn hasnt proven a thing yet.
The Seahawks OL is a point of weakness for them. Their passing game will likely continue to struggle this season if the QB doesn’t get much time. To be honest, the Seahawks and 49ers have a lot of similarities.
Coaching: 49ers
Special teams: 49ers
49er O vs Sea D: toss up
Sea O vs 49er D: 49ers
I say the Niners win both games. Here’s another prediction. Tarvaris DeAndre Jackson will start at QB for Seattle and Flynn will finish the year.
Toss up? With our upgrades on O, this wont be close. You’re comparing last years teams! I agree with your Qb projection for Seattle tho!
If I was Roman / Harbaugh , I would hand off to Hunter / James 15 times each in 1st half , in form of delayed hand off , and draw plays , on fist down have alex take 2 step drops , screen pass this will wear em down , then 2nd half feed Gore / Jacobs ball 15 times each , then play action deep to moss , and Davis , Seattle would have no idea how to defend , then of course blitz our front 4 every other play , welcome QB to the NFC West!
@David
Don’t you think Seattle will adjust? They’ll probably stack the box and force the Niners to pass the ball. I think the major factors will be how the O-line and Alex Smith play. If they do their jobs effectively, the Niners will win both games easily.
That stacking the box crap. Is going to end this season. Im sure the wr with their speed would love that.
Wow! Really? James 15 carries, Hunter 15 carries, Gore 15 carries and Jacobs 15 carries? Thats 60 carries dude! That shortens the game a bit. The average nfl game has roughly 65 plays providing its a balanced attack or close. That would mean 0 screens 0 “2 step drops”, 0 passes, 0 catches for VD, crabs, Moss, Manningham, and whoever else. What a game plan dude! Did you just start watching football? Better rethink that one and try and come up with a better game plan.
Grant’s analysis extrapolates too much from last season’s performances. In the off-season, both teams got better. Niners offense reloaded and Seahawks added some D talent, especially on pass rush. Grant sounds like some of those Smith-obsessed folks on this board, pinning all chances of success in individual games on flawless QB play.
But the biggest difference maker in the upcoming season will not be because of personnel improvements. It will be the opportunity for Harbaugh and his coaching staff to game plan for the division rivals during the off-season and install appropriate situational plays.
These two teams know each other very well. The question is what can the players and the coaching staff on each side do with this knowledge-base to beat the other, especially on the road? On that count, I’ll take Harbaugh’s O over Petey’s D any day. I look forward to the Niners coaches using the stable of RBs in imaginative ways, and the receivers victimizing the young Seahawk DBs.
@Mood
Like I said in a previous post, the major factors will be how the O-line and Alex Smith play. Game planning will be important – no doubt about it – but the players will need to execute and the most keys to beating Seattle will be O-line and QB play.
…and playcalling! No more runs or draws on third and long like last year. Thats why everyones favorite stat of 3rd down conversions makes no sense, you gotta consider that.
Mood, that’s the way I see it. With the upgrades and multiple options on offense, it’s a chess match and JH has the advantage.
@Mood
Normally, I would say the differences between a team’s performance between one year and the next due to being more knowledgeable about the playbook/personnel is incremental.
But given the special circumstances last year, that difference is higher than it would have been between 2008-2009 for instance. It will be interesting to see how not only the Niners improve, but all the teams improve after having no OTA last year and having one this year.
What if, on the average, it is found that teams don’t improve? That would debunk another belief.
Teams regress from one season to the next because of one of three main reasons: loss of key personnel in free agency and/or poor drafts a few years earlier, injuries to key personnel, and employing schemes that are not tweaked to counter the counter-moves of other teams, especially division foes.
The only one that is out of control to most teams is injuries. Niners have probably the best/most advanced strength training and conditioning program in the NFL run by Mark Uyeyama, Kevin Tolbert and Jeff Ferguson. That program definitely helps reduce injuries to linemen.
Carroll’s staff is not familiar with several parts of the offensive playbook that the Niners never implemented last season. The lack of tape adds a slight edge to Harbaugh, at least for the first game.
Mood,
I disagree with your statement that, “Carroll’s staff is not familiar with several parts of the offensive playbook that the Niners never implemented last season.”
Carroll and many of his staff members faced Harbaugh while at USC If you watch a lot of Stanford games you realized that everything JH ran with SF last year he had done at some point at Stanford.
Seattle was very well prepared defensively to stop the 49ers and did a good job holding them to 38 points of offense over 2 games.
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:7967421
LOL Skippy……. Seattle winning the division. HA HA HAAAA They arent sold on Smith, but with these weapons. He will prove them and the whole football world wrong. Stay strapped up fans. Weeez going deep again this year…. “I think you have the makings of something very special” S.A Smith. WOOOOOOOOOOO Cant wait!
Bayless always takes the Devils advocate position. He likes to stir things up and is very good at it. His predictions are ridiculous a lot of the time but that is what makes him watchable.
Bayless is way off about Russell Westbrook, for one. Westbrook’s the best guard in the NBA.
Grant
Are you friends with Skip? Because if you are, I won’t go off about him.
I’ve never met him.
…”Westbrook’s the best guard in the NBA”………DWade is the best!!!
Not anymore!
Come on now Grant, best guard in NBA? CP3 & Rose both better than Westbrook. And if your thinking about a “pure” PG then D Williams also better.
I’m not concerned about pureness. There are plenty of ways to skin a cat, and when you factor in defense, Westbrook’s the best.
Westbrook’s PER this postseason is an unreal 27.5, second only to LeBron James. Derrick Rose never put up numbers like that.
Chris Paul’s PER was 20.4 this postseason. Westbrook has passed these guys. He’s the most athletic guard, he’s the best scoring guard (volume and efficiency), and he’s really cut down on his turnovers (6.5 turnover rate in the playoffs).
Top 20 players in the NBA:
1. James
2. Durant
3. Howard
4. Westbrook
5. Rose
6. Paul
7. Dirk
8. Kobe
9. Carmelo
10. Harden
11. Wade
12. Duncan
13. Rondo
14. Parker
15. Deron Williams
16. Love
17. Griffin
18. Garnett
19. Bynum
20. Aldridge
Chris Paul is a 1st or 2nd team All defender year after year. Westbrook if he’s not shooting well will disappear. Paul if not shooting well gets his teammates open shots and plays higher quality D than Westbrook. Westbrook will get more points but that doesnt make him better
Westbrook is younger, bigger, quicker and more explosive, and he’s shooting a .491 effective field goal percentage in the playoffs. Paul shot a .466 eFG% in the post season. Chris Paul is a flopper on defense. Westbrook has the best combination of size, strength and quickness of any PG defender in the NBA.
The only thing Paul does better than Westbrook at this point is pass, but Westbrook’s a better overall player.
I think it comes down to what type of player you want. Paul is better at making everyone around him play at a higher level. Westbrook isn’t that type of player. Then again there are very few of those in the NBA. Westbrook is without a doubt the most athletic guard this league has ever seen and his scoring ability is 3rd to only Lebron and Durant. If you want a Scorer take Westbrook
He’s a defender, too.
Teams driven by pure point guards rarely win championships.
KB 8TH????????????? Now your just trying to make this Laker fan mad. Yes he’s up in age, BUT He could have been the scoring champ if he wanted to. KB is still top 5 in this league at his age. Howard? Please the guy cant hit a 2 foot baby hook. Right now Bynum is a better all around center. Im gonna take it your a Laker Hater being from No Cal. Wheew
No one can defend the post, the paint and the pick and roll, block shots and rebound like Howard can. He’s the best defensive anchor in the league by miles and miles.
Rose
Wade
Paul.
No doubt about it! Grant is crazy
Top ten
1. James
2. Durant
3. Derrick Rose
4. Chris Paul
5. Bryant
6. Howard
7. Love
8. Dirk
9. Westbrook
10. Wade
Sound list. Thanks for humoring me. We agree on most everything.
I like Dirk better than Kobe. They basically have the same offensive game, but Dirk’s six inches taller.
And Love is no good on defense. I’d still take Duncan over him. Love’s a great regular season player but he’s not leading his team anywhere.
I also think James Harden is vastly underrated. He’s the second best 2-guard in the league behind Kobe, better than Wade, who isn’t a good shooter and is losing a step. Harden can do it all.
Sorry MD but Howard is still the best Center in the league. When Bynum can average 20+ PPG/ 13+ RPG and be among the top defenders every year then maybe he will pass Dwight.
Spurs v OKC will be interesting at the PG position. Parker (a pure PG) vs Westbrook (a scorer). Lets see who prevails.
Since when did Parker become a pure point guard? He’s averaged 5.9 assists per game for his career. That offense has always gone through Duncan.
I think Westbrook will win the matchup because Parker hasn’t faced a player as physical and athletic as him.
I also think the Thunder will win the series. How do you see it unfolding?
But Howard isnt a scoring threat, and Adam. When Bynum becomes the focus of offense for the Lakers, he will be better than Howard. All around player? Bynum easily.
Bynum’s slow – he can’t cover the pick and roll.
He may be a top-five player in the future, but he’s barely top-20 right now. He disappeared in Lakers pivotal game.
OKC Wins it all and gets the 2nd ever… * Title. LOL
It is hard to judge the two based on the fact Bynum will never be the go to guy in LA. But no way can you say Bynum is better all around. Howard has the edge when it comes to rebounding and defense. Only argument is to say Bynum is better in the post, even though Howard scores more efficiently.
I consider Parker a pure PG. He generally plays with people who are the “create your own shot” type of players. He may not have flashy assist numbers but he is a leader.
Fair enough. He’s evolved into one. When he was younger he was a score first guard. He’s 30 now. Westbrook’s 23 and he’s maturing quickly. It’ll be a fascinating matchup.
I see SA taking it in 6. Most important stat. In the 3 games played this season Westbrooks +/- avg when playing on the court against Parker is -11.7.
Westbrook’s really stepped up his game this postseason, and he’ll get away with more physical play than he would in the regular season. I’m taking Westbrook and the Thunder in 6.
Adam…..When KB is gone Bynum will be the focus on offense, and Howard doesnt have another 7 footer in there snatching some of his rebounds. Scoring Centers are more of a jewel than a one domensional defensive center. I guess we will agree to disagree. I wouldnt trade Bynum for Howard. The one thing they both are bad at is, showing up every game.
Grant likes Westbrook because he played at UCLA
And Grant… Was Skippy way off about the 49ers?
Not necessarily, but the Niners should make the playoffs even if they don’t win the division.
Wow. I just cant see the Seahawks winning this division. Carroll is Harbaughs….. You know the rest. =-)
On the other hand, he’s due, and at this point I’d bet he’s got a bigger chip on his shoulder than Harbaugh.
And look at their schedule md. All of the tough teams the 49ers play on the road they get at home. It is going to come down to the last week or two this season.
Good call.
MD,
The $1,000,000,000 question about this team is the discomfort with the weakest link. Alex Smith. It’s not just these three guys that question whether or not Alex Smith can be a serviceable NFL QB. It’s most pundits around the NFL. I just hope that if he faulters early, JH does what he needs to do for the good of the team.
We should be in the super bowl this year if we get some decent QB play. Our O line has to hold up their end of the deal. Can Smith put the ball where he needs to with all this speed we have? That is the question!!
Grant
You didn’t actually bring it up directly. Seattle at home is just really, really good. That has more impact on a split than any other single factor. Seattle today is what GB used to be in the playoffs at home.
No they aren’t DS. Cincinnati went in there and blew them out last year.
It’s a tough place to play, but nowhere near what Lambeau used to be for GB.
Noooo. We have won up there. We dont win in GB. But that stops after game 1
The Saints in 2010 were supposed to go up there and show how awful the NFC west was and didn’t deserve to be a playoff team.
What happened?
The Ravens were supposed to go out west and just crush the pathetic losing team in Seattle last year. What happened?
A team has a true homefield advantage when teams who are supposedly “better” than them by a mile come to your house and get the whopping of a lifetime. And, if that same great home team goes on the road the next week and then gets demolished (as Seattle did in 2010) why did that happen?
Seattle at home is great. Better than any other NFC West team at home has been. That is why they have won as many division championships as they have. As a road team, they are none too impressive. Look at 2010 Niner game for example. Our visit there, we got clobbered. Then they came to SF, and we returned the favor in kind.
Seattle sucks on the road. Seattle has been to its fair share of playoff games this past decade. Only way that happens if if they are really good at home. If you want to argue that, why don’t you go ask players of other teams about playing Seattle in Seattle. Don’t take my word for it.
Bold prediction: Seattle won’t suck on the road this year. They’ll be pretty good, actually.
I agree Grant.
Seattle will be good on the road this year because they will actually have a good team.
The point I was trying to make was that Seattle would not have anywhere near the success they have had if not for the fact that they play in that stadium.
For the longest time, I thought the only stadium which truly has home field advantage was Arrowhead where the Chiefs play. But after watching Seattle the past decade or so, it is clear that Seattle in Seattle is the last game any team wants to see on their schedule. If Seattle sucks, you are lucky to get out of there with a win. If Seattle is good, you’d best save yourself the trouble of actually having to play them and just mark it as a Loss. This Niner team though has the skill to beat a good Seattle team in Seattle.
I also think the Cards will be very good as well. And the Rams could be pushing near 0.500 as well.
DS,
You are right that Seattle is very tough at home, but comparing that to a 40 year post season win streak was quite a reach.
East coast teams traveling cross country to Seattle may struggle, but I’m not sold on their home field advantage against the Niners
Seattle is a tough place to play, but comparing it to Lambou is nuts. Maybe its louder, never been to GB, but the product on the field is garbage. Lets check something. How many times in the past 15 years have we won in Sea and how many times in GB. % wisw, because I knooow we play there every year.
md
Not remotely fair to compare Niner wins in Seattle vs. GB.
Seattle has been in our division, so we are forced to play them every year. GB is not in our division, so we don’t play them every year. AS has only played them 2x or so his whole career vs. Seattle what…10+ times or so?
Plus the Niner teams who played GB were way different. Different era/team/players. Add to that the fact the Niners would play in GB every other year in GB vs every year with Seattle and your numbers are not comparable.
How far back in years do you have to go back to even get the last 15 times we played in GB? Seattle? Not remotely close.
Since the new Seattle stadium, how many times have they lost a playoff game there? In the same time span, how many playoff games has GB lost at home?
This has zilch to do with the Niners. It has to do with the home field advantage Seattle has vs anybody elses advantage.
MD, agreed. They’ve posted two 7-9 records under PC and now they can compete with the 9ers. NOT HARDLY!
@msc
Seattles skill for much the past decade is a lot closer to a 4-12 football team. They have stank.
The fact they are near .500 means they have a huge + playing at home. GB by comparison has been flat out better skill wise the last several years. So they win because they are a better team. Makes sense.
Also, I’m talking playoff games more. Seattle beat NO. Every “expert” on earth picked NO by a mile.
PS You did miss some “things”.
“Seattle today is what GB used to be in the playoffs at home”
Got to be kidding, Green Bay has always been tough, the good news, we don’t have to play Green Bay in December, but Green Bay has always had good QB’s from the Magic man to Fahr and now Rodgers. The Seahawks is a tough and loud place, and although they are improved we will beat them.
Over the last 4 years the Seahawks are 15-17 at home.
Truly dominant.
Lol, just another example of the jabroni he/she/it is…
That’s kind of rude Jack.
I must have missed something.
You think so msc?
BS,
And I do mean Bs. How many playoff games has Seattle played at home on Quest field. You makebit appear as though they’ve been to the playoffs the last 13 years and are undefeated or something. They have only had 1 game!!! Jabroni fits you to a tee. I’ve been sayingbit for months. Young lady, you are clueless when it comes to this game.
Hey Jeff Hammer, DS is a professional wrestler?
Don’t get the connection. :/
…aaargggh…I want football!!!!!!!
I was hoping you would say “I want drama!!” Because we have plenty here.
‘oneniner’
Finally something we both can agree on (lol).
Is that what your calling #11 now-a-days? LOL But like AES. I actually agree. WTF is going on?
Good one MD
Come on MD, you know these extremist (both sides) use AS as an excuse to argue and burn cycles. They are bored. Why they use AS as the reason to throw out barbs and names that causes being banned is beyond ridiculous. They need a hobby.
Hof… It’s slow right now. So with my hand raised with a smile I say..”guilty” lol
I think Grant is right, based on last year the Seahawks had an excellent defense that will probably improve with the addition of Irvin and our offense was not that great. I’ve lived in Seattle for 20 years (but a diehard 49er fan) and the stadium here is loud and a tough place to play, especially in division games. I would say that while the 49ers have spent their offseason trying to improve their weak link (offense) by getting speed guys in James and Jenkins, the Seahawks spent most of their draft trying to improve what was already a strength (defense), even if Flynn is good, there are still questions about the o line and the receivers, and their defense will go from very good to excellent. They would have been better served trying to further improve the offense. If the 49ers offseason improvements work out, it will improve their one weakness (slow plodding offense). The Seahawk defense is very, very good, Carroll has done a good job with them, but I agree with Grant that he is a hostage to his offensive coordinator and I don’t think they will make the same improvements in the offense that the 49ers will.
……nice read…
“And for me, I looked at it as, ‘This is my team.’ It’s more and more so than ever in my career that this is my team and this is my job. It’s not something I was going to give up. I don’t know if it would have ever happened, but if it meant competing with Peyton Manning, that’s not something I was going to back down from.”
http://blogs.mercurynews.com/49ers/2012/05/24/hey-alex-about-the-49ers-interest-in-peyton-manning/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+49ersHotRead+%2849ers+Hot+Read%29
LOL He had NO shot at competing if he would have stayed here. Love the fire, but lets keep it real.
PM has never competed for his job in the NFL.
I kinda would have liked for PM to sign. See PM sweat for a change. See AS pretty much do what he’s had to do every year and prove himself.
Out of the final 3 teams (+ Indy), the Broncos were the only one without any QB competition at all. Just an interesting fact.
If PM signed, then Alex would have not been here. Therefore no competition. You think the Niners would have enough to invest 25 million at the QB position?
Adam707
Strictly speaking, neither contract either QB signed has any guaranteed money.
They could have offered both QB’s nearly nothing in guarantee money until the start of the regular season, then pay them.
Maybe that is what actually happened. And PM, not assured of being the starter, went to Denver. The only one of the 4 (Indy counted) that gave him the job flat out.
Adam707,
This is why you can’t talk football with BS, I mean DS. She says that neither Alex Smith or Peyton Manning has any Guarenteed money in their deals this coming season.
Peyton Manning’s contract has him getting 18 Million GUARENTEED this coming season. BS just makes things up to suit her argument. However, the information is NEVER factual. She just always hopes that the person that she’s debating with doesn’t know the facts. BS doesn’t deal in facts.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7713078/2012-nfl-free-agency-peyton-manning-denver-broncos-agree-96m-deal
…Adam read it again if PM had signed …there was a 99% chance Alex would still be on the team…..they never withdrew the contract….
“You think the Niners would have enough to invest 25 million at the QB position?”……Yes all in the name of competition and the fact Manning is coming back from a major injury
Got to go back to last year. Both teams had zero OTAs, the difference being is Carrol already had his system implemented, Harbaugh did not. Harbaugh was a rookie coach last year and has learned from that.
Now this year. Both teams have very good defenses I give the edge to the Niners due to experience and I dont think they knew how good they were till middle to the end of the year. This year they know how good they are. The Hawks are still tweaking their defense. The Niners have the best front seven in all of football and they will even be better.
Now the offense. This is a little more difficult to figure out for both teams. The Niners have their starting QB, the Hawks dont. We know what Tavaris can do but we dont know what Flynn can do. Flynn is too raw at this point to figure out his potential. Alex grew by leaps and bounds (Go Alex) and now has some serious weapons for the first time. If Alex plays like I know he can play big advantage Niners. If he plays like last year eh slight advantage to the Niners. One thing that no one mentions yes the Niners were terriable on third downs and redzone, there is only one way to go and that is UP. Sometimes you got to reach the bottom to get to the top.
Special teams. Advantage Niners – simply put – field position.
Homefield Advantage – Draw
Coaching – Carrol versus Harbaugh. Harbaugh seems to have Carrols number both in college and the NFL. Have to go with Harbaugh here. I dont think we have seen much from coach Harbaugh yet.
Seattle is going to be a very hard team to beat both at home and away. Good sound defense goes a long way. Niners sweep both games by a field goal each game. Yuppers go Niners
I still think SF sweeps sea. Last year SF receivers couldn’t get separation. I would be amazed if sea can create pressure even with their”improved” defense. I believe this was SF biggest weakness other than rg. I believe the rg position will be solid when the season begins.
It amazes me that the same 6 guys are so sure how the future of a player will go. How is it none of you haven’t become an NFL coach or an analyst for ESPN? “Kyle Williams will pack his bags”. Bold statement based on two bad plays. Very educated! Grant, I’ve started to read you and you create debate which is what a writer should do; get people to question the status quo. Good for you. I object to the 6 faithful that bicker like old hens. You all sound like fairly intelligent individuals, F & A Cotton being so. Dim witted! I implore you to think before responding. It’s quite obvious you like the tone of your comments more then its meaning. If your niner fans conduct yourselves as such. There are more reasons for an action then your first conclusion. We’re not ran by men without a clue and speculation is fine and encouraged but think it through. I realize I’m not going to make a friend for this post but as a die hard niner fan I believe that we have a higher standard then you currently are giving. If I’ve offended I understand but will not apologize.
@no name
Strange you mention it as this blog is the first blog I have seen in months maybe years where there hasnt been the bitching. There have been others that have stated the same thing that you have stated but they pay no attention. Its too bad as most posters here have valid and intelligent points on both sides of any issue but it gets dimished by the constant bickering.
*diminished*
Name is tucson9er
Can you see his name? I cant
undercenter
It’s one of those deals where a mobile can see it but a computer does not. Like allforfunplay.
Tucson9er,
Welcome aboard!
2:32 is what Pete Carroll hopes Irvin can do to the Niners.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6leAL3eK9jo
Irvin’s arms aren’t as long as Aldon Smith’s, but they’re long enough and he’s still violent with his hands. I think he’s going to be a special player.
Let’s see what he can accomplish in the first 6 games of the season before we crown him defensive rookie of the year or the savior of the Sea defense.
Irvin REALLY needs to develop more moves for the Pro level. His game right now can be countered with a deep set to push him bye. That’s why, IMO, Trent had it right with the guy rated as a second round developmental project with a good upside. I don’t see 10 sacks his first season, but productive in years after that.
Those seabird CBs were trouble for Joshua and MC, but let’s watch ‘em line up against Randy. Just might see a tad more respect shown. The threat Randy poses will loosen up coverage on everybody else and relieve some pressure in the box on Frank.
I agree.
Football Outsiders SackSEER rates Cam Johnson just barely behind Bruce “Maybin 2.0″ Irvin (10.8 vs. 11.1).
I’m not saying bust, I’m just saying Maybin. I mean maybe.
Well, Maybin came around in his second incarnation. I just think Irvin needs at least a year. He does have what can’t be coached and is a rare talent; that quick-twitch first step; the ‘get off’.
I am highly optimistic about Cam! Maybe the kid from Clemson too?
The Jets were willing to use Maybin as a one-trick pony and he improved from “catastrophic bust” to “adequate”. Irvin looks like an identical one-trick pony to me. Speed rusher, gets pancaked by direct blocks, ineffective against the run.
If the Seahawks put him in on 3rd downs I can see Roman calling an off tackle run to his side. Plow him under and the RB is free to go.
I am not buying the Irvin kid…..i see bust written all over him…
Carroll usually knows what he wants from defensive players. He picked Sherman in the fifth round last year. That was a better pick than Culliver in the third.
Grant,
That was the question is asked last night below. Better value Culliver or Sherman. Thanks for answering.
The 49ers averaged just short of 24 points a game last year and averaged 28 a game at home. Not only did the 49ers bring back an experienced 11 defensive team from last year, they now have Randy Moss, Mario Manningham, Brandon Jacobs from free agency. Lamichael james , Kendall Hunter , Frank Gore, Vernon Davis , are going to average 28 pts a game, blowing out teams more than last year.
Anthony Davis is gonna pancake Irvin. Petes’ Hawks will come in cocky but get a beat down to reality. Lynch will have his will taken from him with relentless brutality. The 49ers have the best defensive coordinator in the league. The Hawks OL stinks and they struggle to stay healthy. I do not see them finishing above 3rd in the division.
@undercenter, appreciate your response and have read plenty of intriguing dialogue but some of the narrow-mindedness can be taxing. I’m a very loyal fan and can debate many of the frustrating facets we face but ultimately it comes down to the faith of our FO, the coach, and hopes that our players are more than the media makes of them. I’m proud of our team and to be a niner fan, so it’s hard to see people bag on those who most of us have never been in their shoes to be so presumptuous about the dealings that we really have no platform to speak on.
Thank you Jack Hammer
Which rookie CB drafted in 2011 was a better value?
Pick 16 of Rd 3 – Chris Culliver – SF
Pick 23 of Rd 5 – Richard Sherman – Seattle
Nice question!
I think they’re both “System Picks”. I’m impressed in both cases. I think I’m developing a bias for taller CBs (to counter taller receivers), but I haven’t seen the Niners buy into that yet like the Seahawks.
Fangio got a lot out of some guys last year that I wasn’t sure had ‘it’. I like Fangio based on last year. Looking forward to 2012.
I hate to say this because I hate the Seabastards – but Sherman is the better value so far. If they had both gone in the same round then I would lean Culliver but to grab a guy like Sherman in the 5th is a steal.
Seattles qbs are all over rated and unproven, they will not do anything…
Grant,
I’m trying to gauge what tge entire blog thinks of Smiths comments on Cam Newton and passing yardage. Especially since the interview has taken on a life of it’s own. Might be the makings of a good blog entry for you. Just a thought. I’m no Bs, I mean DS.
Well here’s what Jon Beason, linebacker for the packers had to say on twitter.
“Alex smith, don’t hate on Cam Bc your stats would’ve gotten u cut if Peyton decided to come 2 San Fran.Truth b told..That’s after a 13-3 yr.”
That statement is sooo true. Beason kept it 100% real. Alex should have made his point without using names.
Smith’s point was invalid as well. As it turns out, 54% of the the Qb’s that have thrown for 300 yards in games over the past 10 years were victorious. So yeah Alex, you need to check yourself , your stats, and your NFL history!
Welcher
When you die, will anybody come to your grave if you don’t pay for them?
I’m thinking not.
It’s Friday and a 3 day weekend. “for the working folks” you say you ignore comments, but your on here talking ‘death’ over someone’s opinion? What is wrong with you? Everything j23 is true. If your hero smith is a “cold blooded ASSASIN ” like onelame thinks. He would want to throw for 500 yards and destroy defenses. Who doesnt want a qb like that? And with this defense that means an easy win. Ds you need a hug
BS,
That’s funny you would mention death on a football blog. Just goes to show how really twisted you are. I’m trying to figure out what death has to do with what Smirh said about Cam Newton.
Speaking about death. Everyone on this blog knows that BSexevr12245677 needs a life really bad. Get off the blog and go back to Xbox. Seek professional help!!!
BS, stop snitching!!
md
I don’t know what 23J said. But he keeps talking about me from out of the blue.
Anybody needs a hug it is the welcher.
To answer your question about QB:
So you don’t care about stats? How is 500 yards not a stat? Again md. You are caught with a serious gulf between what you say you want.
I’m fine with any yardage total. As long as we win! 100, 300, 700 yards. I can care less. Also, points scored are more important. Yards don’t = points.
Good thing I think that because the QB of my favorite team thinks that. Would really suck for me if that weren’t the case. I just might come on ablog and rip anybody (including the player) who likes the guy who leads my team to the NFC Title game in a year many didn’t think they could win 6 games.
DS,
You are a jabroni when it comes to football knowledge, and to bring up death on a football blog proves it.
Jordan’s comment to Grant WOULD make for an interesting blog post, and the resulting comments would blow up the servers at the PD.
Smith was way out of line to bring up another player and team to defend his own stats. If Cam had said that about Alex it would have caused a huge outcry on here, but because it came from the precious it has come and gone without the notice it deserves.
And jack… The sad thing is cam has a horrible team around him. And still blew up. When smith had that it was ok for him to stink. Smith shouldn’t be calling out anybody’s stats. Because he’s been there before. He should concentrate on saving his own job and putting up big numbers and wins.
Grant J23 brings up a great point. Think you can put up something about this?
I’m working on it.
Ds… Who wouldn’t want a 500 yard game? I’m saying that’s what Alex should want. And obviously JH and the FO doesn’t think 200 yard games are the bizzness. Otherwise they wouldn’t have went shopping for a qb that puts up those numbers in a half. Last time ds. You brought up stats to compare smith to Montana. Trying to debunk the “elite” conversation. So you keep talking to a wall. My stance is stats are good, because it shows the qb is playing great, but stats aren’t all that show what a qb can do, and doesn’t always get wins. But if you think for 1 minute that fans and the FO don’t want both. Then what everyone is saying about your knowledge is true. When you admit that you are the stat “it” then we can keep
Going in circles. I can dance quit well.
Very interesting. Smith’s using Carolina as an example backfired. Smith is usually a class act, unfortunately this comment was classless.
As I mentioned several times, there is no respect around the league for Smith. The Packers linebackers statement is further proof of that.
I’ll be curious to see how Smith responds. It should be with an apology because what he said was tacky. It was defensive and offensive.
As for the Smith crowd, I don’t expect them to call him out. There is no accountability in this group.
If he throws for 127 yards in a game, they give him a pass. If he misses several receivers with inaccurate passes in a game, they give him a pass. If he only completes one pass to a WR in the biggest game of his life, he gets a pass because of course it’s the WR’s fault.
Anyway you get me point. Would love for just one of these zombies to admit he messed up.
Jack
That word of yours describes you perfectly.
You pose as an “expert DC”. Yet when the Niners didn’t draft Fleener after you 100% asured everybody they would, you not only were proven wrong, but your inner hater came forth for all to see.
I am a fan. Never said I was an expert. I said I was fine with whomever because I am not claiming to be an expert as you are.
You “pose” as a football expert, but what kind of football expert gives an “F” a second after a pick? Your guarantee went out the window, and your reaction since? Find everything you can that the kid sucks and ignore annything good he did. Can’t deal with the fact you were wrong. I can. I thought TB stank before last year. He proved me wrong. I’m not mad about it.
Even a fan, as I say I am knows that is (forbidden word).
By the way bringing in your nephew on the blog is a lot worse.
I don’t think it’s fair to knock Jack for having an opinion when most of your opinions are, “I trust the front office.”
I think Alex is completey right in his assessment. Passing yards mean nothing if your not winning. Its a stat that does not put into consideration time of possession, playcalling, score, field position, and the entire break up of the game. Like Smith said, you could be into the 3rd/4th Q, down by 20, so your play calling is going to heavily favor the pass and defenses most likely are playing off.
I think Newton understands the comments made by Smith because they are accurate and real. The only people offended by these comments are the haters cause they have been pinning this stat on this blog as a means to prove Smith is terrible. Fact is, its weak because its a subjective stat.
As for Smith and the respect he gets around the league, who cares if the Packers LB’s, Jon Beason, or the president himself does not respect Alex, its all about winning, and Alex is a winning QB on a dangerous team. The league should respect that!
DS,
Thank you for continuing to read my comments, although you keep saying you ignore them.
As for the Jenkins pick, I have been extremely critical of the pick and the player, and I have also given him some props. He looks smooth, especially when running routes with no one on him.
@md
I want to win games. If the Niners ran for 500 yards, the chances of them winnning is higher than if they pass for 500 yards.
If Cam wants yards over wins, I don’t want him. If Cam wouldn’t trade all those games for wins, I don’t want him.
Guess what? Cam wants to win. He would trade all of that for wins. Only fantasy football fans want 500 yard games. I want wins. Don’t care how.
What about touchdowns? Newton scored 16 more than Smith did last season.
FDM,
Smith would have been fine had he just used the yardage reference as an example. Where he crossed the line is when he used a particular team and a particular player as an example. Huge no no. Especially when the player he reference is a media darling even as a rookie and well liked in the NFL.
Made Smith come off looking jealous and petty. He messed up.
You being a poster that generally doesn’t find common ground, I don’t expect you to see it.
TD’s? Only wins matter.
If Newton had the 49er D and ST behind him he probably wins 13 games last year.
MD, BTW, Cotto Mayweather was one of the best fights ever.
As for what the fans want and FO wants, I would take a 3-0 win over a 560 yard passing game and a loss any day of the week. The entertainment value of a shootout is great, some fans want that, me, I want W’s and championships and if that means a conservative approach and Harbaugh playing a methodical chess game to get us to the SB, I’m all in.
Grant,
this bunch just doesn’t see it. Now only did Cam have 16 more touchdowns. Most of those losses were late in games. They were not getting blown out. And Cam only had one receiver to throw to with star quality.
Had Carolina had our defense, they would have gone deep into the playoffs.
Can you imaging. A top three defense actually getting offensive support outside of field goals : )
“Newton scored 16 more than Smith did last season.”
So you mean Newton had receivers? :P
Grant
Can’t have an educated opinion on a drafted player who hasn’t taken a snap on the team. Right now it is like “My favorite color is better than your favorite color.” Completely stupid. See the guy play on this team, then form an educated opinion.
My statement proves my point. I don’t know. So I won’t pretend to know. As a fan, what choice do I have? Hate the guy, or support him?
As a fan, it is not even a choice. I support the guy.
Bay, with Smith referencing Newton, that is as accuarate a statement as it gets. You look at it as a slight because your pig headed.
You ask Newton if he would take back all those 300 yard games or a trip to the playoffs playing within the 49ers offense?
Its about winning, thats all that matters in the NFL. Winning ugly, winning blowing out a teams, winning last second, thats all counts, the stats, the style, thats all irrealevanmt unless your a fantasy football player.
The column on the left where they put the W’s is the only that counts, once you figure that out, the better you will appreciate the game.
Still wondering why calling DS a professional wrestler (http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/jabroni) has much to do with anything there, Jeff.
I guess I’ve been out a couple of days and don’t understand the DS death thing either, but hey whatever, this blog is like going to Harbor Freight – lot’s of tools! :P
DS, Sure you can have an educated opinion. You can watch almost every college game Jenkins played online. I did that and formed my opinion. Did you?
It is an easy cop out to just say, “I believe in the front office, and I support my team.”
The what if card is so pathetic. What if the 49ers had Newton with our defense. Well that could mean we could not have the salary cap flexibility. It could also mean we would not have been able to have the depth on special teams, or on the offensive line. These hypotetical scenarios are pipe dreams, what if I won the lottery? Give me a break!
@Adam
Who is Jeff?
If you mean Jack, is that what worthless stuff he is talking about regarding me? He’s really bored.
What football shall we discuss Adam (-namecalling) that has presented itself? I’m here for it.
FDM,
If the 49ers had Cam Newton they would have a more productive offense and $3m more to build depth. Not the other way around.
http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/carolina-panthers/cam-newton/
Jack my point is Newton would never had been a 49er and never in the future will be, again, its not fantasy football so stop dreaming of woulda, couda, shoulda!
Making reference to “what if” is the lowest form of conversation, I think kids call it pretending, stop pretending!
Jeff / Jack, whatever. Same avatar. I’ll just call him JeffJack or Jeff the Jack Patterson. Or… Jumping Jack Patterson! I like that one.
I have names for everyone – terrible habit. :P
I wish Spitblood was still here. I so wanted to start calling him Ginger Vitus! :P
Fdm… It was a great fight. To bad the boxing world is still a hoax. Not saying cotto won. But he damn sure didnt lose 8 of 12 rounds. It should have been a draw IMO or a very close win either way. The last rd and the fact that boxing NEEDS FM vs MP was a sure fire mayweather win. I’d love to see a rematch. Since mayweather is afraid of Manny.
@Adam
Do you have another name for yourself?
:P
3 things..
1 grant brought up td’s. I’m sure every qb wants a lot of those.
2 why settle for a qb with mediocre stats and relying on the defense or a qb with eye popping stats that has no team. Why wouldnt a team want both.
3 the FO showed they want both by looking at manning. Again. Smith is going to have to be “cam” like to keep his job. The FO has put it out there. So if you all trust the FO quit denying it. Smith is still hanging on by a thread.
@Grant
What about wins ?
What about come back wins?
What about playoff wins?
What about TD:Int(all TO) ratio?
What about the fact Newton has Smith, a much better WR than anybody Smith has had his whole career?
What about Game managing skills? Did Cam go for broke all the time and risk losing games? If AS did, he sure didn’t lose many of them.
There are a lot of “What abouts” Grant. If you want to play that game, then you need to play it with all of them. Not just a few scattered about here and there.
And the biggest of them all “What about Cam makes you think he wouldn’t have switched stats/wins with AS?”
Like most things in the entertainment world its way overblown. Not a big deal and doubtful that Smith was “clowning” Cam. CN was just a good example of someone who had many 300 yard games but only 6 wins to show for it.
I’m just hoping Smith doesn’t come out and speak highly of Google+. Wow, how would facebook handle something like that?
To answer your question–i think it is a non-issue and 100% correct statement.
…to Jordan Welcher it is an issue….he found the comment on some “hater” site…….where all the comments who responded to the quote were dissing Alex…..the first time he posted it, everyone ignore him……and still he is trying to bring attention to it again……
….What Alex said was 100% correct and I bet Cam agrees with him…..One thing we know about Alex is that he does not have a dirty mind or dumb brain to start picking on another player negatively…on the other hand Jordan Welcher is known for his negative thoughts and hatred of players on a team he claims he supports…….so moron (Jordan Welcher) why don’t you do us a favor and go annihilate yourself…….
oneniner,
It is not 100% true. He is correct that the most important stat is winning, but he is also wrong about the 300 yard thing. There were a lot of QB’s that threw for big yards in wins who LED their teams to wins instead of just making sure they didn’t make a mistake.
For him to bring up Newton and Carolina to make a point was just stupid. The spotlight on him nationally just got turned up 212 degrees.
…did you even read the quote….he gave him credit for throwing 300 yrds….
“Yeah, Cam Newton threw for a lot of 300-yard games. That’s great. You’re not winning, though.”….
…you really don’t know Alex if you think the spotlight is going to make any difference……to him…
Lol. Onelame talking about people hating players on the team, yet he has for years. “hated” S hill, T smith, singletary, J raye and others. Welcome to the “hater” side onelame. Ha ha haaaaaa
…dummy…you mean i hated those that helped contribute to our losing seasons……you are a true nimrod……
…..well at least you finally are being honest that you did support them while i hated them……
you are a true loof……
Grant, you sure do defend the seachickens like this is an Inside the seachickens article
Glad you are finally getting back to real journalism. Niners vs Seahawks are going to be major slugfests twice a year for the foreseeable future. Niners hold a slight advantage IMO right now, but Seattle will be the biggest threat to them in the division.
Here’s one take on Alex Smith’s remarks re: Cam Newton
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/05/25/jon-beason-to-alex-smith-keep-cam-newtons-name-out-of-your-mouth/
….who cares about Jon Beason……..he needs to play in a playoff game before he can talk……..
He did in 2008 oneniner.
…well he needs to be on a team that wins 1 playoff game
One of the comments about that article I found interesting.
“Cam Newton Accounted for 22 INt’s or Fumbles last year. Alex Smith only had 7. Alex Smith Accounted for 17 TD’s. Cam had 35. Cam has a +3 TD ratio. 4th quarter QB rating CAM was 67.1 Alex was 103.3. 3rd Down QB rating Alex was 87.6 Cam was 63.0. Cam rushed for a 1st down 31 percent of the time when he ran the ball on 3rd down. Alex rushed for a 1st down 89 percent of his 3rd down rushing attempts. I am a numbers guy. Draw your own conclusions. End of the Day I take CAM, but Alex had the better year last year. I imagine 5 years in Cam will make Alex look like a chump.”
One thing you are not taking into account is game situation. Alex’s defense kept the score close and had more take aways.
CAM was forcing the issue because he was generally trailing in the 4th. Tough situation to be in, especially as a rookie dont you think?
…how about those stats Jack!!!!!
@Bay
No doubt about that, that is one reason I am not a huge fan of stats. Stats dont ever tell the whole story, the eye test is still the best.
But bay….. Those stats don’t matter. It didn’t matter for smith when these smith fans bring up his stats year by year. Smith was behind all the time. So I guess cams count to. I love it when their defense comes back and smacks them in the face.
..”I imagine 5 years in Cam will make Alex look like a chump.”
…yea just like all the QB’s drafted after 2005 have made Alex look like a chump….
The only QB’s that was drafted after the 1st pick in 2005 that you could say have performed better than Alex are Aaron Rodgers and Joe Flacco.
The Ravens won’t even pay Flacco top money so you could put a * near his name also.
The others you could come up with are:
Mark Sanchez – looked good early – regressed lately
Matthew Stafford – Looks good – injury prone – and with the best WR in the game, still can’t beat the Packers or win playoff game
Matt Ryan- regular season champion…no playoff win
@ Grant
Alex Smith raises valid point about Cam Newton, passing yards
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d82951fd4/article/alex-smith-raises-valid-point-about-cam-newton-passing-yards?module=HP11_content_stream
Years ago when QBs passed for 300 yards it was because the team was losing. Not so much in this new era of football. But it still somewhat applies that a lot of passing yardage is accumalated because that team was/is losing. Prevent defenses account for a lot of that stat.
The new WR protection rules has had the most impact.
I’m sure Smith is finally tired of all the Tool Bags badgering him about yards.
Big freakin’ deal. He’s absolutely right. Unless you’re doing the nerd fantasy thing, the only thing that matters are the “W’s”.
It is what it is and he wasn’t taking a slap at Newton. Read the comments, not a personal slap at Cam.
Lame.
Good points on the NFL Net article. Troy Aikman / 1990s, right on point.
Smith is asked to do something different. So it looks to me like you’re either a 49er fan or an air attack fan. If you’re an air attack fan it may be time to pick a different team.
Of course some of the non-air game has been out of necessity, Smith hasn’t had much around him in that phase other than Davis and Morgan but whatever.
Some of that may change this season. Can’t wait! :)
Thanks Adam that my take also, you either are a fan of what the niners offensive Philosophy or you are a stats fan…
…+1……
If San fran had Newton they would have won the Super Bowl…. if Smith could throw 35% on third down he would have avg 300 yard a game BUT HE HASN’T…. as for Seattle and San Fran …. looking forward to some excellent football aside of just survive QB play …. but injuries will dictate outcomes as well as who has improved … Seattle 4th round pick of Robert Turbin… looks like an excellent back up to the BEAST
Seattle’s cornerback playBeginning of year OK …. WOW at the end of the year …. Browner went to the Pro bowl BUT SHERMAN excited for him to go against Moss…. Run the ball his way He also lays some lumber down
It doesn’t always happen; but it regularly does. Pete will mess up some how. Pete is a great college coach; but only an average NFL coach.