The 49ers play the Giants at Candlestick on Sunday. In the meantime, I’ll break down a couple of key matchups per day.
The 49ers running attack vs. the Giants run defense
This is a lopsided match up. The 49ers average 6.1 yards per rush – that’s No.1 in the league by almost a full yard per carry. The Giants defense allows 4.5 yards per carry – 25th best in the NFL.
The 49ers have two running backs playing at a Pro Bowl level – Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter. Brandon Jacobs, the ex-Giant, very well may return from an injured knee. So that’s three running backs the Giants have to account for.
Then there’s Colin Kaepernick, who runs the Read Option and the Wild Cat a few times a game and averages 10.6 yards per rush.
And then there are the wide receivers who run the fly sweeps and end arounds – Mario Manningham, Kyle Williams and Ted Ginn Jr.
Greg Roman has called 82 rushes the past two games. As long as he remains persistent and creative with the running attack, the Giants defense will not be able to stop the 49ers offense.
The persistence is very important. After all, the 49ers averaged 5.4 yards per carry on 28 carries in their NFC Championship loss to the Giants in January. You could make the argument that Roman should have called more running plays. Maybe that would have given the 49ers a better chance to win.
I don’t expect Roman to shy away from the running game on Sunday. He’s on fire calling run plays. I expect Gore and Hunter each to touch the ball about 15 times against the Giants.
Advantage: 49ers
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Interestingly, Alex outran Kaep against the Bills. Maybe Evil Genius Roman will unveil a new MadKaep package against the Giants.
Statistically, the worst runner yesterday was Dixon with 5.3 ypc. Sick!
The two New York teams have been outscored 79-3. Time to bring out the broom for the third New York team in a row!
The huge difference here is that the Giants have a much more capable defense than the Jets or Bills combined. Couple that with a championship QB who is elite, and this game will be the first real challenge for SF this year.
Creativity is going to be key to winning this match up.
Chris,
The Jets D is ranked #20, and the Giants is ranked #21.
Jack I respectfully disagree in this case with the Stats. The Giants Offense is ranked 2nd in yards, 3rd in points, 3rd in pass yards and 12th in rushing. That puts the starters out of the game in the 4th and allows for second stringers and prevent D to come in.
The Giants D has also played 2 divisional games which I think always skews the stats.
I think as a whole, the Giants are the most capable opponents SF has faced yet. It will be a challenge in all areas. I hope SF shores up their special team issues. Coughlin is an amazing coach. He’ll challenge Jim and company this week. It’s going to be an amazing game.
Jack,
The Giants give up 22.2 points per game (15th best in the NFL) and the Jets give up 27.2 points per game (22nd best).
Also, the Giants have given up just 13 points per game on the road this season – best in the NFL.
@ Grant:
Playing the 26th and 31st ranked scoring offenses may have something to do with the Giants’ success on the road. That said, although they have issues in the back 7, the Giants have the best d-line that the 49ers will face this season (sorry Buffalo).
The question is, how will the Giants defend the 49ers? Last year, in the regular season, they focused more on stopping the run, and the 49ers passed enough to best them. In the NFC Championship game, the Giants focused more on stopping the pass. They consistently rushed 4 and dropped 7 into coverage. The 49ers had success running the ball, but didn’t run as much as they could have.
This is going to be an interesting game.
@Chris/Jason: Do you know that the Giants are playing 2nd stringer and prevent defenses in the 4th q of games, or are you just assuming that from the Giants’ offensive numbers?
Grant,
I was basing it only on the total yards stat. The average of 13 points per game on the road is not very impressive given they have only played 2 road games, and Carolina and Philly are struggling offensively.
It seemed like you were implying the Jets defense is as good as the Giants defense, and that is not the case.
Claude, NY played their second and third stringers in the Fourth Quarter against the Browns. Rookie David Wilson actually scored his first NFL TD in the fourth quarter. No assumptions.
@ Chris/Jason:
That’s one game, and Wilson doesn’t play on defense.
According to Pro Football Focus, the Giants’ starting secondary played every snap of the Browns game.
Chris,
The Niners have faced a number of challenges already, and in looking at the schedules, this will be a bigger step up in competition for the Giants than it will be for the Niners.
The Giants 3 wins have come against teams with a combined record of 2-12, while their losses have come in division to Dallas and Philly.
The Niners on the other hand have 4 wins over teams with a combined record of 7-11 and have lost to a 4-1 team on the road.
Regardless of the records, this figures to be a close hard fought game because these teams are pretty evenly matched.
Rocket, I respect your view and always look forward to any insight you offer. Thank you.
Thanks Chris.
This upcoming stretch is going to be tough, and should show us how good this team is.
http://ninerchatter.blogspot.com/2012/10/how-good-are-49ers.html
Giants defense, this year, has drastically fallen off against both run and pass. This NYTimes article has more details.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/09/sports/football/giants-defense-struggling-to-pressure-quarterbacks.html
There has been a startling lack of havoc in opponents’ backfields over the first five weeks of the season. The Giants have consistently struggled to do what they have done so well for years: contain running backs and punish quarterbacks.
Against the winless Browns, they were credited with two quarterback hits, though that statistic is generally open to interpretation, and Coach Tom Coughlin said bluntly, “We didn’t touch the passer.” The Giants are averaging fewer than three quarterback hits a game, more than two fewer than they averaged during the 2011 regular season.
IMO, a perfect team to continue our newfound offensive prowess against.
The Browns averaged 4.8 yards on the ground against the Giants last week. However, due to turn overs, they fell behind in the 2nd half and abandoned the run thereafter. Turnovers were a key to that game – one that the Browns could have easily won.
Outside of costly mistakes, I just don’t see how the Giants can stop the Niner offense. If Alex Smith is on – like he was yesterday – the game will be another blow out.
i love my niners but no way this is gonna be a blowout
I think the danger, aside from Eli throwing bombs, is the giants Dline vs our Oline. The giants Dline is seriously legit. They have the ability to get a ton of pressure, hits, and sacks on Smith. I don’t know what the situation is with them this year because I haven’t had a chance to watch them alot. Hopefully the 49ers run it down their throat.
I expect this to be a true litmus test of the team not one individual player. I think if we can beat the gmen by seven or more we have the NFC locked.
Don’t forget Atlanta
ATL nearly blew it at home vs CAR, does that count for anything?
So, Grant, are you saying you now understand why the Niners have been running all the “gimmick” plays?
Stopping the 49ers running game without sacrificing coverage in the passing game will be a key for the G-men. I don’t think they’ll be able to, and i expect the 49ers to lean heavily on the run in that case (which they should have done last time they played….), forcing the giants to sacrifice pass coverage, and then the 49ers hit’em up through the air with play-action and big shots down the field.
But being able to run the ball against the g-men base defence is a must.