NFL Mock draft 2016: 1.0

Here’s my first attempt at a full first-round mock draft.

1. Tennessee Titans: Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss

Protects Marcus Mariota.

2. Cleveland Browns: Myles Jack, ILB, UCLA.

Best defensive player in the draft. Replaces Karlos Dansby at inside linebacker.

3. San Diego Chargers: Jalen Ramsey, FS, Florida St.

Replaces Eric Weddle at free safety.

4. Dallas Cowboys: Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio St.

This premier pass-rusher fits Dallas’ 4-3 defense.

5. Jacksonville Jaguars: Vernon Hargreaves III, CB, Florida

The draft’s most athletic defensive back other than Ramsey.

6. Baltimore Ravens: Deforest Buckner, DE, Oregon

Replaces Chris Canty at defensive end in Baltimore’s 3-4 defense.

7. San Francisco 49ers: Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota St.

No pressure to win next season, so the Niners take a quarterback in Round 1.

8. Philadelphia Eagles: Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame

Jason Peters, the Eagles’ longtime left tackle, is 34-years old and injury prone.

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Emmanuel Ogbah, DE, Oklahoma St.

Complements defensive tackle Gerald McCoy.

10. New York Giants: Darron Lee, OLB, Ohio St.

Becomes the weak-side linebacker in the Giants’ 4-3 defense.

11. Chicago Bears: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio St.

Replaces Matt Forte, who signed with the New York Jets.

12. New Orleans Saints: Shaq Lawson, DE, Clemson

Upgrades the Saints’ pass rush and run defense, both of which ranked 31st in the NFL last season.

13. Miami Dolphins: Mackensie Alexander, CB, Clemson

Fills a hole a left cornerback.

14. Oakland Raiders: Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville

After failing to sign Malik Jackson, the Raiders draft the best interior pass-rusher available.

15. Los Angeles Rams: Jared Goff, QB, Cal

Can’t compete in the NFC West without a quarterback.

16. Detroit Lions: Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan St.

Matthew Stafford was sacked 89 times the past two seasons.

17. Atlanta Falcons: Leonard Floyd, OLB, Georgia

Plays outside linebacker in the base defense and defensive end in the nickel defense.

18. Indianapolis Colts: Cody Whitehair, OG, Kansas St.

Fills a giant hole at guard.

19. Buffalo Bills: Reggie Ragland, ILB, Alabama

The Bills ranked 25th in yards per rush allowed last season, and their leading tackler was a safety.

20. New York Jets: Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis

Lets the Jets to forget about Ryan Fitzpatrick.

21. Washington Redskins: Andrew Billings, NT, Baylor

Solidifies the middle of Washington’s defense.

22. Houston Texans: Josh Doctson, WR, TCU

Gives recently-signed quarterback Brock Osweiler someone to throw to other than DeAndre Hopkins.

23. Minnesota Vikings: Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss

Replaces Mike Wallace, whom the Vikings released.

24. Cincinnati Bengals: Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor

Helps replace Marvin Jones and Mohammed Sanu, who signed with the Lions and Falcons, respectively.

25. Pittsburgh Steelers: William Jackson III, CB, Houston

Fills a hole a right cornerback.

26. Seattle Seahawks: Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio St.

Replaces Russell Okung, who signed with the Denver Broncos.

27. Green Bay Packer: Vernon Butler, DE, Louisiana Tech

Replaces B.J. Raji, who retired.

28. Kansas City Chiefs: Eli Apple, CB, Ohio St.

Replaces Sean Smith, who signed with the Raiders.

29. Arizona Cardinals: A’Shawn Robinson, DE, Alabama

Replaces Dan Smith, who signed with the Raiders in 2015.

30. Carolina Panthers: Jason Spriggs, OT, Indiana

Replaces Mike Remmers at right tackle.

31. Denver Broncos: Robert Nkemdiche, DE, Ole Miss

Replaces Malik Jackson, who signed with Jacksonville Jaguars.

  1. “No pressure to win next season so they take a qb”
    You’re right, but that’s the reason they don’t take one. To many holes on defense and we know Baalke calls the shots and is a defensive minded GM. You’ve got Gabbert who fits Kelly’s style of qb, so you see if he pans out this year and if it doesn’t get a qb next year. Meanwhile filling in the holes on the defense would be the logical and Baalke’esk type pick. Cleveland will be picking a qb and Jack will be a niner! Boooom!

    1. I prefer drafting quarterback’s (providing a good one is there) early in a team rebuild.

      Would you rather go into the postseason with an inexperienced quarterback, or an inexperienced (any defensive position)?

      1. Rather go in with an inexperienced defensive player. Because others can pick up some slack. Qb’s don’t get that luxury.
        And with baalkes record of offensive draft picks is pass until he’s gone!
        This is a defensive minded league and those teams win titles.
        Especially in our division.
        Gabbert with the new chance is basically a rookie but cheaper and with more experience. I think he will strive under Kelly personally.

    2. Ninermd

      I have a hard time believing how similar both of us are reading this draft….Why on god’s green earth would we draft a QB at #7 just to get him mauled because of no passpro ? Blaine Gabbert just could be one of the top QB’s in the league under ‘Chip’ Kelly’s system. This is not a strong QB year, so why would we draft a QB before the 4th round ? We have 4 QB’s now, so let’s test for the best after April 4th…..Draftwise, I think that we should take Buckner or Stanley first AND second if possible…Jack isn’t going to be there. That way we get both turnovers and pass protection\
      QB of the future ? 2017…when we have a decent Oline

      1. As bad as the 49ers are, they really are not that far off. I’m gonna say worst case scenario, 2 years. So, by drafting a QB this year at #7, he will be ready ala Aaron Rodgers to step in and lead the team by 2017/18.
        The Niners are gonna draft by need this year and next. Let them all learn and develop together like the Cowboys did with Smith, Aikman, and Irvin.

        If Goff or Wentz are franchise QB’s the team feels they are or believe they can be and be the guy for the next 10 years, take one of them. If not, continue to build the defense and oline and let Gabbert run the show. But as we have seen Gabbert will only take you so far. Lets be honest, the 49ers might have to draft 2 QB’s this year or one this year and next.

      2. Oregon,

        We don’t have a franchise QB on this team. If you’re fortunate enough to be in position to draft a QB you think can become one, you do it. You can’t take the attitude that everything else has to be in place before you take one, because the chances are you will never get to that point. If you pass on Goff to take Stanley or Buckner, what happens if they don’t work out? Do you then keep drafting other positions trying to correct that mistake and continue ignoring the QB indefinitely? It doesn’t work that way. You take whomever you feel is the BPA, and if it’s even close between a QB and another position, you take the QB.

        1. Rocket

          I understand your point, but I don’t think that either Goff nor Wentz is nor will become a ‘franchise’ QB. ” What if Stanley or Buckner don’t work out ?” I think that you’ll agree that finding a DL or OL is going to be less of a task than a franchise QB. To my way of thinking, I don’t think that this years class of QB’s is any stronger than the 4 that we already have on the roster….and they have already seen and shed blood. If we’re ‘lucky’…we may still pick an excellent QB in the 4th thru 7th rounds after we’ve solidified our O and D lines….in all honesty, it’s a crapshoot….

          1. Oregon,

            I don’t agree with your view of the QB class, but that is just a difference of opinion that neither of us can prove right now. What I really want to focus on is this point you made:

            I think that you’ll agree that finding a DL or OL is going to be less of a task than a franchise QB.

            You are 100% correct and this is why you take the QB over the other two positions. It’s been shown that your chances of finding a top QB are slim to none after the first round. You can find a serviceable player sometimes but you rarely find a top ten caliber QB beyond the first round. Picking at #7 gives the Niners a chance to grab that top ten QB. There are no guarantees, but as you said, it’s easier to find the linemen later on that it is a QB so if you’re going to gamble, do it on the QB.

            1. Rocket

              I don’t think you missed my point, but you did cherry-pick it….That point is that ESPECIALLY THIS YEAR, there are a hell of a lot more quality DL and OL than quality QB’s, so by default there are more opportunities to strike gold at DL and OL than quality QBs…C’mon this is just arguing…there are no franchise QB’s this year…the best isn’t that much better than the 5th or 6th best

              1. Oregon,

                Again you make a point as to why we should take a QB. It’s a deep class of DL which means we should get good value at the position in the second or third round if we choose to go there.

                I disagree with you on the quality of the QB class. Goff especially has a chance to be a franchise QB imo. I know you don’t want to hear it, but Goff is a better passer than your boy Mariota and I think he has a good chance to be the better NFL player.

              2. Oregon,
                I don’t follow the logic of your statements that you have made here.
                1. If the DL that you draft fails its much easier to find a replacement for him.
                2. This draft is much deeper in DLinemen so we should take one at the top of the draft.

                Both of these statements seem to argue for taking a qb at the top of the draft. I would lean towards a Defensive player if the right ones drop… ie Jack, Bosa, Ramsey, or possibly Hargraves… But if it is Stanley or Buckner vs Goff I would take Goff due to the potential impact a successful qb can have on the game. Additionally the dropoff is huge after Goff and Wentz IMHO.

              3. UGH… me no spell good.
                I meant.

                I don’t follow the logic of the statements that you have made here.

      3. ninermd
        “I have a hard time believing how similar both of us are reading this draft”

        Lol why? Because we disagreed on Alex smith for a couple of years? Ha haaa.

        I’ve read your comments to rocket and I still agree with your point that this class is defensive heavier than qb heavy. And to be honest I don’t think any of these qb’s are franchise qb’s either. Not for the first pick at least. There are some sleepers in every class. Do I really believe Baalke can find him? No way. In fact I believe if there is one coming out as a top pick prospect Baalke will miss and pick the bust. So with that said while Baalke is still picking for our niners if feel a lot better if he stayed on the defensive side of the ball. I’ve finally turned the corner of the old offensive juggernaut days and realized defense wins superbowls theses days. That’s why I’m not a fan of the Kelly hire.
        Brady, Rodgers, the mannings didn’t win because of them their defenses were the main reason for those titles. Baalke must revamp a dominate defense and leave his horrible offensive picks alone with the first two picks.
        And the other side…. Again I still have this feeling Gabbert is going to suprise a lot of folks under Kelly. Just not the year for a qb pick. IMO

    3. Have you bothered to look at the list of QB prospects (including possibly declaring juniors) available in the 2017 draft? Pitiful.

      1. This is something that was being discussed here a few weeks ago. It seems every year people point to next year’s class as being better than the current one and it rarely works out that way. This years class is better than last years, but next years class looks like a total dud right now. That’s one of the many reasons I’m advocating taking a QB at #7 if one falls.

      2. The reality is that while quality NFL qb’s remain available in the NFL draft, it is becoming increasingly difficult to know how they will translate to the NFL. The case used against Goff is the norm… most colleges run spread or spread option attacks, so it is very hard to know how they will translate. And even those that don’t are not necessarily running pro-style offenses. Wentz while not running a spread, is running an offense that features a lot of QB runs, or pass/qb run options… few outside of Carolina employ such an offense (possibly SF this year).
        Qb’s that are sure fire prospects are rare…. think Luck, Manning, and Elway. These were the only qb’s I can recall that the consensus opinion was that they would go on to be franchise qb’s.

      3. Oh so you’re a qb guru? It’s funny it’s always the “pitiful” ones who nobody talks about that become the legends.
        It’s a whole season away. Way to early to call a class pitiful.
        And I personally am not to giddy about this one.

  2. The Jets already have Lynch on the team except with a year of experience in the form of Bryce Petty.

    Although I like Doctson better I don’t see him going before Treadwell. Lawson will be the #2 DE to go. I think you have Conklin going too high.

    If you swapped Goff and Wentz you’d still likely be wrong but you’d be closer to putting them where they’ll be drafted.

    1. I’d move up your first WR taken as well as adding Miller into the first round. Miller definitely goes before Coleman. I doubt we’d see 3 WR’s going in a row also. Even with a run I don’ think teams have those players graded that close to each other.

  3. Grant, I see it coming down differently, but I like that you take you own stance, not following the herd.

    – Goff falling is the biggest surprise. The Eagles recently traded up to pick 8. I assumed they had a QB in mind. Bradford’s on a 2 year contract, perfect for a “bridge quarterback.” Stanley would be a solid pick for them.

    – Lee at 10 is surprising, but perhaps shouldn’t be. He’s the healthiest of the “3-down” ILBs.

    – I had hopes of Billings falling to within trade-up distance of 37+105 (end of first), but I think you are right. He won’t drop into the late 20s.

    – Naturally you have Spence outside the first. Chris Jones too. I’m intrigued by Jones. A gamble pick (some question his motor)

    1. Brodie -I like the way your thinking with Billings (esp.with the Williams situation)- one of my favorites in this draft but sans a trade with the Jets involving CK and draft picks don’t see it happening. Goff at 7 a trade up for the Jets slot ( Billings) and Bronson Kaufusi in the third would be an outstanding start !

    2. Agree. Goff falling to 15 would be a major surprise considering the premium a QB gets. I actually think in terms of real NFL ability thats where he belongs or maybe even lower but teams always want to draft a QB high and hope.

  4. Baalkie will select a defensive player with the first and second pick. Hargreaves, Buckner or Jack, one of them will fall to number 7 and right off the bat it makes the Niners better.

  5. Wentz looks to me like a slightly more mobile Alex Smith. You need accuracy in the league. The video above doesn’t show very good ball placement. Left a lot of yards on the field by making his receivers wait for the ball or have to reach back for it.

      1. In the Wentz highlights you posted, it looked like he was looking for contact. He certainly didn’t avoid contact. How long does that style last in the NFL. I recall that Steve Young was a guy who looked for contact, and it cost him at least one playoff game against Green Bay when he took on linebackers at the goal line against Detroit. Steve couldn’t slide. Have you seen Wentz slide?

      2. We all know the unpredictability of the NFL. That said, I don’t see anything in your first round that looks out of place, with the possible exception of D. Lee going as high as 10th, and I have a hard time seeing Phili pass on GOFF if he’s on the board.

        Very impressive looking 1st round mock Grant! You”ve clearly done your homework.

        1. I would imagine you agree that the Cowboys are in a very pivotol spot picking 4th, the way the board is likely set up for the majority of the top 15 picks. I’vs had the Cowboys taking Boss as well.

          Let me ask you this Grant. Let’s say the Cowboys throw us a curve. If the Cowboys don’t take Bosa, who do you think might be another player Jerry Jones might take?

          Also, what do you think the chances are that the Chargers trade their pick at 3?

            1. Thats the truth. Thats why its pretty much a waste to follow the draft…..tho I know I will. Baalke IS “D” minded, doesnt think offense is particularly important. But in 5 years, Ive seen how many All-pros drafted on the D? Let alone play-makers………….

  6. The safest bet in the draft is the Browns taking a QB at #2.

    I haven’t even thought of a mock draft yet so I won’t pick yours apart too bad Grant.

  7. Grant,I think you are on point with your mock draft! Although I do agree with your mock,I do have a different outlook on some of your picks. Jalen Ramsey will be the 1st overall pick and Tunsil will go 2nd to Jacksonville with a trade from Cle,in which,Cle will draft Stanley at 5. Also,I think Den will go Bullard with their pick.

  8. I have favorites, like Goff at 7, but I don’t have a round 1 mock. Here’s what I think is going to happen round 1…

    – There will be more trades at the upper part of round 1 compared to last year. The Titans not needing a QB, the Eagles trading up to 8 are a few of the signs pointing to a trade.

    – Goff will be taken in the first 6 picks.

    – Baalke’s first pick will leave us feeling blah, but we will eventually warm to the pick. We will feel much better about his day two and three picks.

    1. Goff is not going top ten unless the Rams trade down into the top ten. The problem with that though is no one in the top ten will need a QB if RG III signs in Cleveland so why move down for what will still be available?

  9. We are getting closer to the draft, so I thought I would start putting together some “scouting reports” for players the 49ers might be looking at with pick #7.

    Please note I am not a scout. These are just my thoughts on the players after watching them on film. Most of this is probably stuff you have seen described elsewhere about the players too – I am not trying to re-write the book on these prospects and what I see will often be similar to what others see.

    To start things off, I will look at the top 2 QB prospects – Jared Goff and Carson Wentz.

    1. Player Summary:
      – 6’4″, 215 lbs
      – 3 year starter
      – Started as a true freshman and improved each season

      Stats:
      – FR: 12 games, 60.4% completion rate, 3508 yards, 6.6 YPA, 18 TDs, 10 INTs
      – SO: 12 games, 62.1% completion rate, 3973 yards, 7.8 YPA, 35 TDs, 7 INTs
      – JR: 13 games, 64.5% completion rate, 4714 yards, 8.9 YPA, 43 TDs, 13 INTs

      Pros:
      – Easily the most advanced footwork I have seen from the QBs in this draft. Keeps feet moving and usually resets feet before passing. Regularly has feet at proper angle for pass, which allows for greater accuracy and power in his passes (rarely tries to simply strong arm the ball).
      – Has a good enough arm to make all the throws. Some passes downfield can flutter though.
      – Very good ball placement, which has improved considerably since his freshman year.
      – Regularly passes on time and in rhythm, which is a big part of how his ball placement has improved. Lets his receivers run onto the pass, and anticipates receivers coming open.
      – Overall, accuracy is very good at pretty much every level of the field.
      – Isn’t afraid to give his playmakers a chance when covered, but in line with accuracy comment above, will commonly put the ball where only his receiver has a play on the ball. Rarely turns his receivers into defenders in tight coverage.
      – Throws with touch.
      – Quick release.
      – Pocket movement is pretty good. Has excellent footwork as noted above, and will also manoeuvre around pocket pretty well to buy time. Can be surprisingly good at spinning away from pressure to extend a play.
      – Willing to take a hit while keeping focus on what is happening downfield and complete the throw. Made a number of critical passes, including TDs, with defender in his face.

      Cons:
      – Some say he is too skinny, but he is sturdy enough and didn’t miss a game due to injury in college despite taking many hits.
      – Some say his hands are too small, and he has had fumble issues in the past (23 total fumbles, though only 4 this past season) so there may be something to it. However, he hasn’t appeared to have any issues throwing the football due to his hand size in the past.
      – My main area of concern is regarding his ability to process information at the NFL level. The Bear Raid up-tempo spread offense keeps the decision making for the QB pretty simple, and offers plenty of quick hit options to get the QB in rhythm and tire out the D. Sonny Dykes kept him on a short leash his first two seasons, before letting him make some play and protection adjustments this past season. So there is some reason to think he can do it, and he is probably more advanced in this area than many spread QBs, but it is worrisome it took so long in what is a pretty simple offense to be given this kind of freedom. Of course, having played in the Bear Raid may make Goff the perfect candidate for Chip Kelly’s up-tempo offense.
      – He put up Madden like stats, but a lot came from picking on inferior Ds. He struggled some against the better Ds he faced, both this season and in previous years. Some of this was due to mistakes by those around him, but he also made his fair share of errors. Tighter windows and more complicated schemes contributed to this. Brings up the question of how will his skills translate in the NFL where he regularly will come up against better defensive players and more complex schemes?
      – While he has excellent footwork, and is willing to take a hit, he can be rattled by the pass rush and let it impact on his footwork and hurry his throws. He makes some excellent throws under pressure, but he also makes some bad throws. He is inconsistent when pressured.
      – Had an overall losing record. This happens when you play on weaker teams, I know. He was 7-5 this past season, which was a marked improvement, but you still want to see a QB being considered as a top 5 pick put up more wins. And win against some of the better teams he faced.

      Overall:
      Best pure passer in the draft, and first round worthy QB tools to work with. But there are enough areas of concern to make me hesitate taking him in the top 10.

        1. Unfortunately qb’s are always drafted higher than they should be based upon need and overall impact. IMO it will depend upon who is there at this spot… If it is between Jack, Bosa, Ramsey or Hargraves I would probably take one of them… if it is between Stanely, Lee, or Buckner and Goff or Wentz (whoever they have rated higher) I would lean towards the QB.

        2. Very impressive work Scooter. I’m curious if you’vs spent much time evaluating Connor Cook? I watched a couple more games from the 2014/15 season and then rewatched the Indiana game and the heartbreaker vs the Huskers this season, and came away really impressed with his growth over his final season n and a half.

          Any thoughts on him, and where would you feel comfortable drafting him?

          1. I will have a breakdown of Cook in the coming days/ weeks. But just quickly, I’m not as down on him as a passer as many, and think he’s a 2nd round QB.

            1. Thanks Scooter. One more question in regards to Cook. In your eyes, is he the 3rd best QB prospect in this draft class, or is if Lynch, or someone else?

              I’m going to do a written breakdown of the top 4 QB’s in this class, at some point as well, and I think I’ll start with Cook.

              A sneak peek:

              I happen to believe Cook is the 3rd best QB prospect. I’m enamoured with his release, and the way the football leaves his hand. And from the information I have gathered, he was throwing the football with considerable more velocity at his pro day, compared to the combine. Watching his film, I think it’s a bit confusing that he doesn’t get more credit for his athleticism. I suspect a lot of people overlook his legs because he hasn’t put up much in terms of rushing yards.

      1. Scooter_McG Thanks for putting in all the work. Good eyeball noting he started as a true freshman. I like to include age in the summary. Goff’s 21, Wentz 23.

        Interesting how talent evaluation in some sports (like many Olympic sports) focus more on performance at a certain age… less on experience playing the sport.

        With football, its overwhelmingly experience at the college level. Most draft breakdowns pay little attention to age.

        1. I agree that age is largely neglected in the draft.

          For example, Goff is finishing his College career younger than when Wentz became a starter. That says something.

      2. Pretty solid and mostly fair breakdowns Scooter. In regards to Goff, you left out one of his best attributes and that is his ability to go through progressions and look off defenders which he does at a very high level.

        I also don’t see the negative in him not being given more responsibility before this season. Coaches like to micro manage in College going so far as having players line up and then back off to see a play change from the sideline at times. That happened in many places including FSU and Oregon where the top 2 guys taken last year played. Goff was given complete control by Sonny Dykes and Tony Franklin this year because they saw he was capable and didn’t need to be spoon fed anymore. In other words he earned it. That is a positive in his favor; not a negative. The fact he did a great job with the added responsibility makes the whole question moot imo.

        There is no reason to think he can’t learn and adapt to a new system. By all accounts he is a film room junkie and thinks the game at a high level. Mariota played in a similar but more run oriented system at Oregon and I don’t recall this much hand wringing over whether he could adapt to the next level or not.

        1. Mariota brought an extra element to a team with his running ability. Goff does not. Goff needs to be a pure pocket passer, and to be an effective pure pocket passer you need to be able to master a complex passing offense and read the entire field. Goff is very much an unknown in this regard, and he struggled some against better Ds, so saying it isn’t a concern boggles my mind. Of course it is a concern. Not saying he can’t do it, but it has to be a concern.

          1. Scooter,

            The same questions were true of Mariota last year. He didn’t play in a complex passing system and threw the ball less than Goff has. He also had a dominant running game to lean on which allowed him clearly defined reads on play fakes while playing on a team that usually had more talent than their opponent. Goff didn’t have any of that. He was Cal’s offense and played behind a below average line his entire time there. He is well versed in playing under duress, and whether the system is complex or not, he knows how to go through his progressions and look off defenders. Sure he doesn’t have the wheels, but you don’t draft a QB based on running ability. It’s an accessory that can come in handy, but the bottom line has to be how well the guy can play from the pocket and Goff is an advanced pocket QB.

            Learning a new system is something every QB has to do at the next level. What is hard to teach is the poise and accuracy needed to stand in with heavy pressure bearing down on you. That article I linked too a few days ago broke this down very well.

            I’m not saying he’s a slam dunk franchise player or that there are no question marks. There is no guarantee with any player, but you are underestimating how advanced this kids understanding of the game is.

            1. Mariota is a dual threat QB. Goff is not. Mariota doesn’t have to be a great pocket QB to be a good QB. Goff will. He’s a bigger risk than you suggest.

              1. Yes, but what do you think the longevity of a “dual-threat” QB is. A leg injury to these dual threat QBs could be far more devastating than an equivalent injury to a pocket QB. Eventually father time slows them down, but will they make the transition. Young was able to make that transition. A good pocket QB doesn’t need to make that transition in the current NFL game. Although an extreme example, I expect that as soon as Russell Wilson has an injury that slows him down and limits his scrambling ability, their offense will fall apart. Having said that I admit to being amazed at how he is able to take hits that would end another QB’s season.

              2. The dual threat QB is not effective unless he can play from the pocket Scooter. We’ve seen it first hand. Mariota’s legs are not going to keep him in the league. It’s how well he plays from the pocket. Goff has never relied on his legs and has learned how to play effectively from the pocket. He is further along in this area of development than Mariota. Every player drafted brings the risk of not working out; Goff is no more a risk than Winston and Mariota were imo.

              3. I appreciate that rocket, every QB needs to be proficient from the pocket. But being a dual threat QB means they don’t have to excel from the pocket, or in terms of reading and manipulating Ds, to be an effective QB. QBs that bring a running element to the game like Mariota, but are also capable passers, change how teams defend the offense as they need to account for both.

            2. How exactly am I underestimating how advanced his understanding of the game is? I think I have been clear in saying his understanding and the responsibilities he had in the offense were at a higher level than most spread QBs.

              Until we see how he handles a more complex offensive system and having to read the entire field against more complex Ds it is premature to talk about how advanced his understanding of football is. It is advanced for a spread QB, but that is still pretty limited compared to what is required in the NFL. And given he has struggled some against better Ds in the past, I think there is a genuine reason to believe it won’t be as easy for him to pick up as you appear to believe.

              1. What QB doesn’t play less than his best when his OL is being outplayed by the DL? Goff’s supporting cast was unimpressive. Everyone brings up the 5 interception game, but two of those interceptions were on his receivers, two on Goff and the third one I view as both being at fault. At least Goff was trying to make something happen with inferior talent around him – contrast that to Gabbert on third down last year (BTW: I expect that Gabbert will improve in that category this year because he knows he has to).

                I for one would love to have a pocket QB playing for the team. As any OL will tell you, it’s very hard to block for your QB when you don’t know where he will be.

              2. Sure, playing on a weaker roster will obviously impact on him when the team comes up against better teams. But it also makes it more difficult to project how much was on him vs how much was on his team.

                I would love to have a great pocket passer. Part of being a great pocket passer in the NFL is understanding and running a complex system and being able to read and diagnose the D pre and post snap. Goff has shown the ability to do that within a system that keeps things pretty simple for the QB. Will have to wait and see whether he can translate that to the pros.

              3. How exactly am I underestimating how advanced his understanding of the game is? I think I have been clear in saying his understanding and the responsibilities he had in the offense were at a higher level than most spread QBs.

                You are underestimating by putting in the context of the spread QB. His understanding is based on facing the opposing defense and what they throw at him just like every other QB that comes out of College. It doesn’t matter what the system is. It’s how you adjust to what you see and go about beating it. Goff has a great understanding of what he is seeing and how to attack it. That won’t change no matter what system he gets into. He’ll have to learn a new offense just like every rookie QB has to, but his intelligence and ability to play from the pocket gives him a leg up. It’s why draft analysts project him as the most pro ready in the class even though he has played in a spread.

              4. If we don’t put it into context then Geno Smith should have been the 1st overall pick in 2013, and carving up the NFL right now. He had great command of the offense he played in, and knew how to beat the Ds he played against.

                There are plenty of spread system QBs that excelled as passers in college, with excellent knowledge and understanding of how to play within that system to beat a defense. The system is designed to make them look good, and keeps it simple for the QB.

              5. Personally, I see Goff similarly to how I saw Andy Dalton in 2011. I liked Dalton as a prospect. Thought he had a lot of excellent traits, including a quick release, good pocket movement, ability to go through his progressions, decent arm and generally calm under pressure. Was concerned whether he’d be able to pick up an NFL offense, and he’s since shown he is capable of doing so. If Goff picks up an NFL offense like Dalton has, whichever team takes him will have a pretty good starting QB.

              6. Out of all the teams needing a QB, CLE might be the one team that has an advantage.
                Hue has experience developing QB’s. The only problem is they have no surrounding talent.
                Same could be said for the Niners but the issue is what type of QB developer is Chip and Modkins? Will this not be Chips true first test at drafting and developing a QB?
                I think his career in the NFL depends on it.

              7. Scooter,

                I’m saying he’s not your typical spread QB when it comes to understanding the nuances of the position and how to read a defense. We disagree; so be it. I’ve linked some articles that answer exactly what you are questioning and here’s another one:

                http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2603644-jared-goff-looks-every-bit-the-top-qb-prospect-in-2016-nfl-draft

                From the article:

                Size and arm strength are nice qualities for a quarterback to have, but the ability to process information quickly, anticipate throws, ball placement, pocket presence and repeatable mechanics are far more important.

                His ability in each of these areas certainly earned the quarterback respect from those trying to game-plan against him.

                It’ll be fun watching how things unfold the next few years.

                As far as the Dalton comparison, I don’t see it. Goff played in a much more pass oriented offense while Dalton was more of a game manager in an offense that ran it more than it threw it. Dalton has done well and it doesn’t hurt to be drafted by a good team, but I see Goff as a much better prospect.

              8. Yeah, I feel like we are just going round in circles. But I want to make this abundantly clear – I am not disagreeing with you that he is advanced for a spread QB. I just think it is foolish not to acknowledge it as an area of concern.

                As for the Dalton comparison, sure, different offenses with different focuses. But similar traits.

              9. And btw, none of the articles you have linked have answered my concerns in the way you believe they have. They all acknowledge that while he was tasked with a lot more than your typical spread QB, he still played in a spread system which keeps things pretty simple for the QB. Which is exactly what I have been saying.

                I understand you really like him as a player, and feel the need to defend him. But I really don’t think I am being unreasonable in pointing this out as an area of concern.

              10. Scooter,

                I don’t think you are being unreasonable. We have a difference of opinion and are debating the merits of them. It comes down to the fact I don’t see him struggling to learn an NFL system anymore than other QB’s that have come out in recent years. The core fundamentals of playing QB are the same no matter what system you play in. It comes down to understanding what you are seeing and responding in kind. He has shown an ability to process information quickly. Sure it’s a spread offense, but it’s a spread that often relies on going through progressions and throwing with anticipation which puts him ahead in his development imo.

                I do like him obviously, but I stick up for him because I don’t think he is getting the respect he deserves. That’s not a shot at you, it’s a common theme I’ve observed in regards to the observation around here of this QB class being unworthy of first round consideration or not in the same class as the other position players in the top half of the draft. It’s misguided hyperbole imo. At the end of the day we are all speculating, but sometimes you have to just trust what you see.

              11. This dance is why I put most of my attention on placing players where they might go in the draft rather then trying to say who is better then who. Besides most ‘scouting’ done by people around here is nothing more then regurgitating what other scouts have already written in your own words.

    2. Player Summary:
      – 6’5″, 237 lbs
      – 2 year starter

      Stats:
      – FR: 75% completion rate, 144 yds, 9.0 YPA, 2 TDs, 0 INTs; 5 runs, 22 yds, 1 TD, 0 FUM
      – SO: 73.3% completion rate, 209 yds, 7.0 YPA, 1 TDs, 0 INTs; 10 runs, 70 yds, 0 TD, 0 FUM
      – JR: 63.7% completion rate, 3111 yds, 8.7 YPA, 25 TDs, 10 INTs; 138 runs, 642 yds, 6 TDs, 6 FUM
      – SR: 62.5% completion rate, 1651 yds, 7.9 YPA, 17 TDs, 4 INTs; 63 runs, 294 yds, 6 TDs, 3 FUM

      Pros:
      – Prototypical size for the position. Looks like a TE playing QB and is willing to put his body on the line.
      – Played in an offense that used a lot of pro style elements. Is familiar playing under centre and making pre and post snap decisions.
      – Was made to read the entire field in the Bison offense, and go through progressions. Generally did a good job of leading the Bison offense and finding the open receiver.
      – Good (but not great) arm that can make all the throws. And he made all the throws in the Bison pro style offense.
      – Willing and able to fit the ball in tight windows with zip on the ball.
      – Calm in the pocket as he scans the field.
      – Willing to step into throws and take a hit (perhaps too willing).
      – Good feel in the pocket – knows where the pressure is coming from and can extend the play with good movement and elusiveness.
      – Good runner, with surprising elusiveness for his size, which adds another element to the offense.
      – Reportedly a natural, charismatic leader with strong work ethic.
      – A winner. Led the Bison to two FCS championships, with the victory his senior season coming after returning from a broken wrist in his throwing arm.
      – Has shown well at the Senior Bowl and Combine, important for a guy from a lower level of competition.

      Cons:
      – Only 1.5 years as a starter, and missed half of his senior year with an injury to his throwing wrist.
      – Lower level of competition – will be a big jump against NFL defenses.
      – Can lock onto his receiver, and try and force the ball in against tight coverage when he really shouldn’t.
      – Footwork can be sloppy at times, with slower than ideal setup and sometimes resulting in trying to muscle the ball in.
      – Can lack accuracy/ ball placement on deep throws, with some over and under throws to receivers deep.
      – Can be late and behind on some throws, not anticipating the receiver to come open and not allowing them to run onto the ball. Ball placement could be better.
      – The Bison offense is run oriented, with the passing game building off the run with a lot of play-action and limited number of throws each game. Could he handle an NFL offense that puts the team on his shoulders/ arm?
      – Needs to do a better job of protecting himself on runs – too willing to lower the shoulder which leaves himself open to unnecessary injuries.

      Overall:
      The lower level of competition is a concern, and he needs some development. I doubt he’ll ever be a prolific passer in the NFL, but he looks like a gamer that handles pressure moments and plays his best when it matters most. I see a lot of early career Ben Roethlisberger in him, and for a team that is willing to commit to the run he can be the type of QB that comes up big when needed to win games. For me, he’s the QB I’d take if I had my choice of any QB in this draft.

      1. Thanks for the work, Scooter. Level of competition is the biggest concern for me. Do you know who the last successful NFL QB was that came from a lower level division?

        1. Joe Flacco, Tony Romo and Ryan Fitzpatrick were all QBs at FCS schools.

          Ben Roethlisberger, Derek Carr and Blake Bortles were also small schools QBs.

        2. As many have said thank you for the breakdown Scooter.

          My biggest concern in regards to Wentz is accuracy, he is very similar to Kaep earlier in his career. He is fairly accurate on routes crossing the middle of the field that need to be put on a line. However, this drops off considerably when asked to make bucket throws over top of defenders. It could be argued he is poor at this as to often his receivers were making contested catches when they had clearly beaten their man. This concerns me a lot especially when considering the level of competition, and the fact that he was known to stare down receivers.

          1. His accuracy on deep balls and on throws to the sidelines isn’t great, I agree. Very inconsistent, and too often gives defenders a play on the ball.

      2. Thanks Scooter, great work as usual. With as many players you’ve been right on you should start your own scouting consulting company, call it “Scoot’s Scouting”. Or maybe just start a blog.

      3. Another good one Scooter. Wentz is a tough analysis because he has so little experience compared to other QB’s who usually enter the draft. The entire prognosis on his career is based on what we think he can become instead of what he is right now. I think the Rothlisberger comparison is apt here for many reasons. The size and athleticism are obvious, but Rothlisberger also was a late bloomer much like Wentz in that he didn’t start until his last year of HS and gradually grew into the player he became in College and at the pro level. I honestly don’t know if Wentz can reach that level but he has the tools to get there if he continues to work hard. My biggest concern in regards to Wentz is consistent accuracy. He isn’t there yet and a team has to look hard at whether that is something that will get better with time or if it’s a structural thing in his throwing motion or set.

        Overall I think Goff is the better prospect, but Wentz has more physical talent that if nurtured correctly and patiently could lead to some pretty good things in the future.

        1. I don’t think Wentz will ever reach the heights Roethlisberger has in time reached. But I think he can be similar to early NFL career Roethlisberger, and in time develop into a confident game manager with the ability to sling it deep as well as add a running threat. Maybe Joe Flacco with the ability to run is a better comparison.

      4. Thanks Scooter, A good read! I am in agreement with the idea of just getting the best players possible and needing two to three good drafts. Hope it goes faster but hope we nail the pick!

  10. Wentz was not impressive to me in these highlights. I’d take Goff over him everyday and it’s not even close.
    Yesterday someone posted Cook’s highlights er lowlights too. Not impressive either. I love what Goff has to offer. He’s accurate and throws the Recievers open. Just needs to add meat to his bones which will come in time since he’s only 21.

    1. Goff is a David Klingler/Kliff Kingsbury clone. If I were a graphic designer in the city that hosts the team that drafts him I’m creating a “Bust City” shirt with his picture on it. Would be a millionaire by year 3.

      1. I get the David Klingler comparo but Kingsbury was a 6th rounder.

        If you look at college experience Klingler is closer to Wentz. Both flourished their final two years after doing nothing for the first two.

        With that said I won’t try and talk anyone out of the idea that Goff is a potential bust. None of the QB’s should be taken in the first round although I will maintain my suggestion that Goff is still drafted first.

        1. Big Niner,

          Don’t sweat it. Jack’s comparison has no basis in reality. Goff is a talented kid who will work his ass off. He’s already doing some things at a high level that takes NFL QB’s a long time to grasp. His size is also not the issue some are making it out to be. He is exactly the same size as Matt Ryan right now and bigger than Bridgewater. He’s also never missed a start. He will likely add some weight naturally as he’s only 21, but he can play at the size he is now with out a problem.

          For whatever reason and I still can’t figure it out, a few around here continue to see this as a bad class of QB’s when nothing could be farther from the truth. This is as good a QB class as we’ve seen in a number of years – a lot better than last years especially – and some good NFL starters will come out of it. There is no generational talent like Luck in the group, but there rarely is.

  11. Great work, Grant.

    I hate Wentz. He will be a bust. His footwork is sloppy and his overconfidence is problematic, given the shock he will experience going from “D3” to the NFL.

    1. Thanks Shoup, very interesting. Brent goes some way to explaining the difference in responsibilities between Goff in the Bear Raid and Wentz in the Bison pro style offense. Goff had a lot of responsibilities in comparison to many other spread offenses. But Wentz had a lot more on his plate, akin to what is asked of NFL QBs.

      1. I found it very interesting… especially when hearing that Wentz was calling out the run blocking schemes as this is often reserved for the center from my experience. The other story that was nice to hear from his perspective was that he self scouted so many games and found better plays that could have been run for every play (as requested by the coach) and completed this ins 36 hours. That is an insane turn around… and lends to the comparison as a bigger Alex Smith.

        1. Yeah, he sounds very smart and a guy that could be a good game manager at the next level, with good athleticism to add a running threat to the offense and big game mentality.

          None of the QBs really do it for me this year, I don’t think any of them are elite prospects. But Wentz looks like a guy you can win with.

            1. George, if you don’t mind me jumping in here?

              I’vs got some real reservations when it comes to Hogan. It’s been my experience that when QB come into the league with the types of mechanical flaws he has, they take a lot longer to develop. His throwing motion is so far out of whack, IMO, that anytime he’s rushed to throw the football, he’s EXTREMELY innacrate. And (though I haven’t timed it myself), I’vs been told he’s got a slow release as well.

              I’m not saying he absolutely cannot overcome his deficiencies at the next level. He certainly has a lot to like in terms of athleticism, smarts, and highly competitive nature.

              I hope he pans out. His ceiling strikes me of that as a quality backup, but I hope he proves me wrong.

              1. Good points 49. That has been the criticism of Hogan, his wind up takes too long. In the NFL that will be a major disadvantage.
                Really difficult to teach at the next level is the throwing motion, accuracy and leadership.

              2. How do you define “he’s EXTREMELY innacrate” given his college record? I’m not disagreeing with any faults you perceive but you seem to feel extraordinarily put out by his passing on a run first team.

                If Hogan is inaccurate at times, why is he EXTREMELY inaccurate?

                Would EXTREMELY inaccurate lead to high turn over rate given that his team plays an EXTREMELY competitive schedule? How in the world did they win three out of four conference championships and two out of three Rose Bowls with all those intercepted passes? How did an EXTREMELY inaccurate Hogan beat the Irish with 30 seconds and one pass completion?

          1. Wentz scare me because of the competition he faced. Same with Goff. This is why Cook to me is the best value in the 2nd or 3rd round. Also, D. Henry is my new draft crush!

            1. The competition factor is a small part of the analysis. What you need to see is the player playing the position at a high level no matter what he has around him or the opponent across the field. Cook did face better opposition on average but he also had a better team around him than Goff did.

              Henry is not going to be great at the next level imo. He is strictly a N and S runner. If you get him going sideways he’s not effective. He’s like Ron Dayne to me.

  12. Sorry, Grant, but Cleveland will not pass on one of the 2 best QBs in the draft. The Ravens will draft Stanley because they lost Osmele. Philly will draft Elliot because they lost Murray. Goff does not fall into the Rams lap unless they trade up. Pete Carrol will probably want Henry to replace Lynch. Niners will go Buckner, Lawson or Lee, all your past favorites.
    Otherwise, it was a well reasoned mock.

  13. If the Niners draft Wentz, he may get the Alex Smith treatment, or if he sits and the Niners tank, they will look silly drafting 2 QBs in a row if Watson is available.

        1. When he wrote the “Alex Smith treatment”, I think Seb was referring to Alex Smith being thrown to the wolves in his rookie year by being made the starting QB on a bad team.

          1. Oh, you mean like Blaine Gabbert, Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, Derek Carr, Blake Bortles, Ryan Tannehill, Sam Bradford, and just about every other QB who get’s drafted by a lousy team?

            Guess what guys. It’s the nature of the NFL right now. There are not enough quality QB’s to go around, and the good teams usually have a good QB.

            If you want to sound smart when referring to the “Alex Smith treatment”, you shouldn’t be referring to being forced to start (thrown to the wolves) for a bad team, as a rookie. It happens all the fricken time!

            No, if you want to sound smart, you would be referring to the revolving carousel of coaches and coordinators, like Alex Smith had to endure, because that’s really the reason Alex really struggled to develop as a an NFL QB.

            The lack of stability within the organization, that’s where the 49ers let Alex down guys, and that’s why you would referring to Alex’s first 5 seasons as the the “Alex Smith treatment”, right? Because I have news for you guys. Qb’s who are drafted early in round one, are very likely to be drafted by a bad team, and “thrown to the wolves” early in their careers!

  14. I’m not big on either Goff or Wentz especially at number 7. These guys are high simply be default.
    If Luck, Elway or P.Manning were in this draft Goff and Wentz might be pushed to the 2nd rd.

    Almost everyone agrees that Goff and Wentz are not day one starters and that validates me opinion that they are not the QB for the 49ers.

    If the consensus is that we need to give either of these QB’s at least a year or two to get NFL ready, then I say we’re are better off giving someone like Jaylon Smith a year to get healthy after we draft him at 7. He will likely be there for us because most teams will shy away from him since he may not play in 2016. But a talent like Smith is well worth the wait.

    In rd 2 I would go defense again. We still need an Edge-Rusher and Kaufusi or Nassib would be nice fits for us.
    Also, players like Bullard and Chris Jones may drop out of the 1st rd that I would be interested in.

    I don’t think that S.Lawson and Nkemdiche are sure-fire 1st rd picks either, so that would add some nice options if they are still on the board.
    The first two rounds of this years draft provides some very good defensive players – I hope that Baalke takes advantage of this.

    1. I have to respectfully disagree here. From what I have heard in regards to Smith’s injury he has been taken off many teams boards all together. So he absolutely should not be taken at the top of the first. While he didn’t have an injury quite to the level of Lattimore’s there are many similarities.
      In fact I would argue that since the 49ers have so many holes to fill they would be better off not considering him until the 4th round at the earliest and even then I might hesitate to pull the trigger as quickness was the biggest part of his game and he may never recover this.

    2. AES we simply cannot afford to draft anymore injured or returning from injury type players. That is a big no no for me. We need impact players this draft. Guys that are competitive and have a mean streak, and ready to play physical in a division where defense rules and its black and blue every snap.

      The idea of QB at #7 is fine with me because Gabbert or(God help me #7) will be the starter until we can develop the future QB. Chip Kelly will be able to develop any QB and if Goff and Wentz are there and if they are the best available versus a pass rusher, pick either. My point is there are many needs and this entire draft is based on getting players to help continue the rebuild. The 49ers are in a huge transition now. From coaching to personnel. That means many needs and with the abundance of picks, it really is Kelly’s show to pick who he wants.
      My opinion is we need to come out of this draft with a future QB, day one starting WR,OLB, ILB and day one starting RT.

      1. Prime, I agree with you (again) I would be hesitant to pick a guy with the severity of his knee injury. However, would you take a flier on J. Smith at the back of the 4th round or, perhaps somewhere in the 5th round? Or simply stear clear all together?

        1. My opinion is to absolutely take a flyer on Jaylon Smith if he is there in the 4th. I might even consider the third, depending upon how the draft was playing out.

        2. 49reasons

          I’m more in line with you than Prime on this one….mostly because it’s such a hi quality D year….good numbers

        3. Our history of selecting injured players is not good.
          This 49ers team,and I’ve repeated this a lot, is we need guys with a mean streak like no other. Guys that are so competitive they freak out if they lose the coin toss.
          This would be my number quality when selecting each draft pick.
          If Smith has this quality for sure we should take a chance with him but not earlier than the 4th round.

          1. What do you think Oregoniner? Round 4 or later, or steer clear altogether? because I’ll admit, I’m on the fence with this one. Love the player like you do Prime. Also, such a critical draft this year, and Baalke hasn’t been having the best luck with injured players.

            Really tough decision with this one!

    3. AES,

      Few QB classes feature a Luck or Manning. They are generational talents and they would not push this group to the second round, just a few spots lower than they will ultimately go in this draft. You don’t base the pick on whether you feel the QB can start from day one either. You look at the long term and decide how good the player can be in a year or two. Passing on a QB and taking a LB who just suffered a severe knee injury makes no sense to me. You are willing to have a player at a lesser position not contribute for a year and possibly never, and are against giving a QB a year to sit on the bench and learn?

      Jaylon Smith is a great talent, but that injury is career threatening. As soon as nerve damage is involved you are fighting an uphill battle. He could come back and likely will, but whether he’s the same player or not is the question. Not a gamble I would take in the first round or the second for that matter.

      1. I get, and respect all of your concerns regarding J. Smith, but if this guy only needs about a year to get back to snuff I still like him.
        But yes, I have to agree with you all that picking him at 7 is a big gamble.
        If Jack is still on the board at 7, I would take him over Goff and Wentz in a heartbeat.

        Goff didn’t win enough and Wentz’ lower level of play doesn’t do it for me either.

        1. I don’t think you can base the decision on whether the QB won enough AES. There are a number of factors that go into winning and many are out of the hands of the QB. What doesn’t get mentioned is the fact Cal went from 1-11 in Goff’s freshman year to 8-5 and a bowl win in his Jr. year. There was big time improvement from start to finish and it came with lesser talent than most of the teams they played against.

          I like Jack and would be fine with him as the pick. I wouldn’t take him over Goff, but knowing Baalke’s history, he would probably side with you and take the Defensive player.

          1. rocket,
            Goff, Wentz, and Lynch could prove to be capable NFL QB’s but given the fact that they will likely take a couple of years to develop gives me pause.

            Aaron Rogers took a few years to develop but then again he played behind a legendary QB in Bret Favre. Ryan Mallett played behind and had time to develop behind a legendary QB in Tom Brady but when given the chance to set out on his own he hasn’t done as well.

            The QB position can sometimes be a mystery. When the Redskins drafted Kirk Cousins many people felt that they wasted a pick because they had just drafted their future QB in RGlll. Now Griffin is on his way out and Cousins is emerging as a star in the league.

            All said all this to simply say that I think Wentz, Goff, and Lynch remind me more of the Ryan Mallett’ type QB. They will hang around the league for 5-7 years based mostly on a few flashes and potential.
            No sure-fire, blue chip QB’ in this draft.

            That is why I strongly lean towards going defense with our first two picks. There is a very good crop of defensive players coming out in this draft that could provide immediate dividends to our team more than a QB that needs 1 – 2 years to develop.

            We could draft a QB in the 3rd rd and develop him in the same way we would develop any of the above QB’s mentioned that would draft with our 1st pick imo.

            This team is 3-4 years from making any significant noise again, so why not take advantage of a strong defensive draft year to build a good infrastructure for down the road?

  15. I dont like wentz pick and don’t believe it will happen. I am suspicious of small conference qbs who dont play CBs and Safeties who compete at a pre-NFL level. Niners should draft LB – Jack UCLA or the OLB from clemson

  16. Rams may have designated Keenum as their franchise QB, but I watched how he just was not accurate during game time, so I think Fisher is throwing up a smoke screen. The Rams have the luxury of trading away one of their 2 second round picks, so they will be able to move up in the draft. It would behoove them to jump ahead of the Niners, thus depriving the Niners from acquiring a QB since Gabbert is not the answer and Kaep is likely gone. QB is a desperate need and since they have a good defense and a great RB, finding a QB is the last piece to the puzzle for them.
    Cleveland is dead serious about Goff, and splashing water on his hands and ball before throwing was proof of that. RGIII is a huge risk, so I do not think they will rely on him and pass on a QB, especially to wait for Cook, who may have many question marks, too. Browns were burned bigtime with Manziel, so they will be ripped up and down if they blow it again. Of course, they may be criticized no matter what they do.
    Dallas may pass on a QB in the first, but may jump back into the first round to get Cook, especially if the Browns also passes on a QB in the first. Cook would be ideal for them to back up Romo, and he might be one of the most NFL ready QBs due to his age and experience. Cook might be able to fill in quickly, especially if and when Romo goes down. Also, if Romo’s rehab does not go well, they may be forced to grab a QB in the first.

    1. Baalke sticking with the run game when rule changes favor the pass has proven ineffective.
      Hiring Kelly is a step into the passing era…Niners rebuilding should think about Hogan in the later rounds and shore up the defense in round # 1

  17. There’s a murmuring that Romo condition is worse then being reported. It’s being suggested that they are trying to keep things under wrap before the draft so the team is not pegged as QB needy.

    Could the Cowgirls be a sleeper for a QB at #4? If the Browns go through with RG then I would assume both Goff and Wentz are there for them. Tough to say which one they would pick, could make the case for either with them.

      1. Absolutely. Those are the 2 lynch pin teams.

        The Eagles jumping to 8 makes me think they could use a 3rd rounder to trade up to 6.

      2. Couldn’t agree more. 100%. Those 2 teams are going to define round 1. Especially the Cowboys because I still think Cleveland is almost certainly going QB.

    1. Unless Romo is deemed to be out for the season, I can’t see the Cowboys taking a QB with a top 5 pick. With a later pick or a trade down, absolutely, but taking a player at #4 overall who may not see the field before his rookie deal is finished? Not gonna happen.

      The Browns are taking a QB at #2 regardless of who they sign imo. The fact they still haven’t signed RGIII tells you how much value they see in him. He would be a low cost signing with little expectation at this point.

      1. The Cowboys have a greater need at corner or pass rusher at #4 but picking a franchise/future QB at #4 would not surprise me. Jerry Jones for all his smoke about not taking a QB might just be that.
        They need a QB as we saw last year that without Romo, they were a bad team. My point is between who the Browns and Cowboys select will determine what we do. If one of those teams take a QB, so will we. If both do, we take the BPA.

    2. I don’t see the cowboys taking a QB at #4 I just thought it was interesting.

      I don’t see Griffin wanting to go to a situation where a team is drafting a QB that high. It would mean almost no guaranteed money for him and he would instantly be put under more pressure then going to a team with an incumbent starter. Also, going to a team with an incumbent like SF or LA he’s competing against already unpopular player(s) where a rookie QB gleams bright in the eyes of the fans and coaches. Which situation is he more likely to want to be in.

      If Griffin signs somewhere ‘before’ the draft then I wouldn’t expect that team to use at least it’s first two picks on a QB.

      1. I don’t think the Cowboys take a QB either but with Jerry Jones and Romo’s health who knows. The Browns to me are a mystery. What does Hue want? A rookie to groom or a veteran. The other point is why put a rookie QB in a bad situation with no oline and a team in rebuild as well?

      2. I think the Cowboys will strongly consider a QB selection at #4 and give it a 50/50 chance that they will select one. Romo has not been able to stay healthy, so why would one think that at 36 he’s going to make it through an entire season. We all saw last year what happened to the Cowboys once Romo went down.

        Here’s what Jones said a month ago. I realize he’s said something different since then, but Owners, GMs and coaches all stretch the truth this time of year:

        With the fourth overall selection, Jones said he’d expect the eventual pick to step right in and play – with the one exception of quarterback.

        “We think Tony has three good years, if not more left. We plan on him playing,” Jones said. “This guy would be learning from him, not unlike Rodgers did up in Green Bay or Young did in San Francisco. Hopefully that’s a benefit to him and he’s ready to play, it’s not overwhelming.”

        http://www.dallascowboys.com/news/2016/02/23/qb-situation-looms-large-cowboys-begin-evaluations-nfl-combine

        Also, Romo just underwent surgery on his left collarbone yesterday. He’s broken it three times in his NFL career.

        1. Good point Cubus. We might not have the choice of selecting QB. Like I said the Browns and Cowboys will dictate what we do

    1. Beginning in 2017 clubs will be able to trade compensatory picks. This year those picks allow mobility because they are simply extra picks.

  18. Baalke says we’re a “draft and develop team.” That’s great, if you can pick the right players to develop…

    1. I got a chuckle when I read that. Draft and Develop, nice catch phrase. Unfortunately it rings hollow when you choose the wrong players and hire lousy Coaches like Tomsula and company.

        1. Reminds me of the years that the Giants were effectively a farm team for the teams contending for the playoffs.

      1. It will likely take as long as it takes to get a new GM and HC in place. My gut instinct is that Baalke and Kelly are both gone within 3 years and not necessarily at the same time. I know that sounds extremely negative, but all you have to do is look at the track records of both men to see this likely isn’t going to work out very well.

        1. Unfortunately my gut is aligned with yours! I am really trying not to be so negative but struggling to see the silver lining! Thanks for your honesty! I have drunk the Chip Kelly Kool aid to a point but I don’t see that he will have the necessary horses for a quick turn around!

  19. Greg Cosell podcast on the college QBs. 3/11/16 with Ross Tucker. Also talks about Kaepernick to Denver.

    http://podcastone.com/pg/jsp/program/episode.jsp?programID=583&pid=1635599

    Does not like the class as a whole. Wentz and Goff are top with elite traits that allow them to create. Cook is a system guy with mechanics issues Cosell doesn’t think can be fixed. Two guys are sleepers but still projects: Brissett and Driskell. No comments on Prescott and Hogan.

    1. George did he say anything about Hogan? A lot of people are all over the place about him. I will listen to the podcast when I get a chance! Thanks for the link!

      1. Reb, he didn’t. This is the second Cosell podcast about the college QBs that I’ve listened to, and in both cases, when asked about the rest of the lot, he says absolutely nothing about Prescott and Hogan. My impression is that he doesn’t take them seriously.

        1. Thank you George! I re-read your post and you stated nothing about Hogan, then I asked about Hogan, Boy do I look dumb! Cosell is usually right on lots of things concerning the film, Lots of players and coaches swear by Hogan but his mechanics look like a mess! With Kelly you have to be accurate so Hogan to the Red and Gold might be a bad marriage. Their is just something I like about the guy though!

          1. I’ve given up trying to evaluate how college players will do in the NFL. I’m just ill-equiped, and even the draftniks often get it wrong. And no, you didn’t look dumb, Reb. I hope Hogan makes it to the NFL and succeeds mightily, with us or someone else.

            1. George – Thank you for summarizing my feelings. Way over my head! I will say though that given the amount of luck that’s needed to get a real difference maker, if faced with a choice between Goff and Wentz, I would be mindful of the last time we passed on a real good Cal QB and blew it. You know the old saying: I’d rather be lucky than good.

    1. The 49ers have needs at everyone position group except safety… but I don’t think the author really knows the 49ers. Kaep/Gabb had a 117 rating when targeting Torrey Smith. He can’t catch passes that aren’t thrown to him.

      Arguably the biggest needs are (in any order you like)
      – “3-down” Inside linebacker
      – Offensive line
      – Edge rusher
      – Quarterback
      – Running back that can stay healthy for more than 3 games in a row

      I’m for drafting in impact player. The team’s desperate for star players.

  20. 7. San Francisco 49ers: Jared Goff, QB, California

    Why: With Chip Kelly now the head coach and with constant rumors swirling around the future of Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco goes out into their backyard and plucks Cal’s Goff to be their future quarterback. Goff’s quick release and accuracy on short to intermediate throws falls in line with what Kelly likes in his quarterbacks.

    Goff is the most polished quarterback available, but there are some questions about his upside in contrast with Wentz, who has all the physical measurables you could want in a franchise quarterback.

    http://www.todayspigskin.com/nfl-draft/post-free-agency-2016-mock-draft/

      1. Maybe the truth is that Thomas wasn’t that badly injured. But if he comes on next season and Dixon returns and commits himself, our oline woes are mostly gone. Big ifs.

          1. Anthony Davis quit on his team. He has no intention of playing for bottom feeders and will continue to preserve his body while he waits for SF to fix itself.

            He will not be back in 2016. He hasn’t even filed for reinstatement. Quite frankly, I don’t think the team (players) would have him back.

      2. Flexibility is what it is.

        Kelly was just talking about Kaepernick being effected by his 2015 injuries, but Colin went outside the organization for three surgeries. Colin was criticized for getting the repairs done at a time when he “might” have been called upon to help us go for a later draft choice.

        Flexibility is what it is.

              1. George, I just pointed out an imprecise word, it is not inane at all. HT does it to me all the time.

  21. Grant thanks but no thanks this are the kind of QB’s that get hurt in the NFL what I saw in the video is that he is the doing the RB’s work…..he might be good but the niners already had a number 11 as a QB and went to KC I’m just saying

  22. It appears that Williams did something stupid and hurt himself. That 5 year contract is now gone, he will start the 2016 season on the NON football Injury list. Replaced his 5 year with a 1 year…

    LOL, this is just bad all the way around.

  23. Cowboys will draft a QB, because Gruden gave two numbers to Goff and told him that he should consider those very important- 1-11.

  24. Interesting, Cosell said that Bronson Kaufusi was his sleeper, and may surprise people with a high selection. Reading his weaknesses, he may be more hustle than talent, but he also does have speed for a big man.

  25. to quote Bill Walsh, if you don’t have a franchise quarterback, you’re first job is to keep bringing in qbs until you find one; and once you have one, you keep bringing in qbs looking for a successor. I’ll vote with Walsh every time.

    1. Good to hear from you fesnyc! I am with you on Bill Walsh, Kelly also seems to value the QB so maybe quietly he is in the ear of Balke who will best fit his system but so many moving parts it is hard to know what is really going on!

  26. Fesnyc-it is a sound policy. QB’s are at a premium in the league ,even if a prospect doesn’t turn out to be THE guy, developing a prospect into a viable option can be used as a trade worthy investment.

    1. Maybe it is my distinctly modest social standing but I have a fascination with underdogs,sleepers and small school players trying to make the Big Time.Guys trying to beat the odds and naysayers catch my attention.A guy I keep coming back to in the late round possibilities is QB Vernon Adams-underdog. I know I know he’s small and in the modern era of bigger is better some say he won’t get drafted ,his ceiling is a career backup,can’t be compared to say R.Wilson who is a veritable pitbull by contrast.etc. Still in my stubborn fanlike manner I say the kid possesses the “je ne sais quoi”. Perhaps it is more than that-http://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2016/03/23/the-law-of-the-pack-with-vernon-adams-jr/ an interesting read!

  27. I think you have Ogbah’s and Treadwell’s draft stock reversed… I have seen Ogbah going late first to early second, not top 10.

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