How the 49ers shut down the RPO in 2018, and how they plan to use it in 2019

Posted By on February 26, 2019

Chicago Bears running back Tarik Cohen (29) runs between San Francisco 49ers linebacker Elijah Lee, left, and defensive end Ronald Blair III during the first half of an NFL football game in Santa Clara, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 23, 2018. (AP Photo/D. Ross Cameron)

Last week, I broke down the X’s and O’s of the RPO scheme, and focused mainly on the Eagles offense and the Patriots defense. In the breakdown, I argued that the only way to defend the RPO is with press-man coverage, and that Kyle Shanahan never uses the RPO from the shotgun. Both claims were wrong. Allow me to amend my previous post.

In Week 16, the 49ers faced the Chicago Bears, who used the RPO 20 times in that game and gained only 3.9 yards per RPO. The 49ers shut down that play using mostly zone coverage. And in Week 17, the 49ers offense ran the RPO at least three times from the shotgun, and all three plays were designed well. Let me show you.

Here’s how how the 49ers defended and used the RPO the final two weeks of 2018:

This article has 188 Comments

  1. I applaud your candor and correcting your mistake. Solomon Thomas was drafted for his run prowess, and his upside as a pass rushing 3t. Our defense was incapable of stopping the run, even if our moms lives were in the balance.

    Good read and react by Williams.

    Great team read and pursuit by the defense.

    Yep, Warner with a piss poor angle. He’ll learn.

    Williams was using the sideline with a perfect angle until at the end he unraveled.

    The corner just stood there flat footed, it looked to me.

    Ajai looks like he’s making a conscientious effort to simulate a move which looks somewhat robotic, thus defining the hesitation for the running back.

    Was that Bourne that whiffed? Ay yai yai!

    More plays designed specifically to take advantage of Donald’s early commitment. Need to neutralize some of his speed, and use it against him.

    Keep ’em coming, Grant! These are great, and it’s nice you’re not coming off as bashing the organization, rather teaching and pointing out the stagnation along with the development….

  3. Another good write up.

    I think you’re beginning to realize that the more X’s & O’s you review the more you realize that player execution is as important or more so than the scheme of the play drawn up. I mean we all know this but when you start reviewing film and schemes it really becomes apparent. The other thing that becomes apparent is how absolutely critical not only execution but simply basic discipline is…especially on defense.

    To boil down many of your observations: discipline stopped some of those plays. And lack of discipline stopped some of the 49er’s RPO plays. K’Waun Williams read fast flow and stayed flat footed which makes him look like he’s in coverage before he fast flows and shoots a gap to make a play. Next he stays flat footed and hesitates to follow fast flow and is in position to make a tackle on a receiver. That takes discipline to stay patient in your zone and not simply to react to RB and line flow. The interesting thing is if opponents observe this and start to run right at K’Waun Williams and running routes directly at him where being flat footed will work against him. As long as he can go with fast flow horizontally…he’s okay…but when the play is coming right at him….hesitating to read a play will work against him.

    All this to me leads to how important position coaches are. Most know how important the ability of a Head Coach to assemble a staff is for success. Most think of the coordinators that head coach can get for their staff. But almost as important if not more so are the position coaches that work under those coordinators. Think about Harbaugh’s staff: under longtime DC Vic Fangio you had veteran Jim Tomsula as the D-line coach and Ed Donatell as the secondary coach (and had been a DC in the past too). Tomsula went out as a joke of a head coach with the 49ers but he’s a damn good defensive line coach. Shanahan’s staff has not inspired a lot of confidence. He was not in the greatest position when he was hired to assemble a staff. For some of the 49er position coaches it was their first time as an NFL position coach. But this off season we’ve seen some changes at some of the position coach jobs. Hopefully it’s a good sign of things to come; more discipline, better attention to detail by the players…simply less confusion (think of the times the secondary read things poorly or were out of position and confused).

    1. BTW, glad you called out Grant, looking at the play, and saying it was not man to man. I thought it was zone, because they run man to man so seldom.
      .
      Please keep providing your keen insights. I really look forward to your posts.

  4. Yes, the players did not execute properly, but maybe it is the coaches’ responsibility to coach them up so they can make those plays. Hopefully, Joe Woods will be able to help Saleh coach them up.
    .
    Glad to see the Niner coaches actually making quick assessments and effective adjustments.
    .
    33 is Tarvarius Moore. Guess he had some rookie mistakes, like Warner, But Lee and Williams should have been more disciplined. Good coaching will instill more discipline.
    .
    I agree with Grant. The RPO is very effective when performed flawlessly, and the Niners will do better with better familiarity and more reps.
    .
    However, I will disagree with AFFP. Position coaches are important, but competent Coordinators are essential to success. I have watched Cleveland rejects Mangenius and O’Neil too much to think that the coordinators are equal to or of less importance than the position coaches. Tomsula is a good example of a coach in over his head, and even good coaches like Chip can be dealt a bad hand.
    .
    I am happy with Saleh and his overall scheme, but I think having former DC Joe Woods, will be the difference between success and failure. I hope he helps them become more flexible, and can change from a 3-4 over to a 4-3 under quickly and seamlessly.
    .
    I will agree that coaching is so important. Just look at how coaching was the difference between winning and losing in this past SB.

      2. Boy, was that the Keystone Cops. In line with replacing Harbaugh with Tomsula. In hindsight just disgraceful.

        1. Yup, should have kept JH and ditched Baalke. Then, after sacking JH, they should have hired Fangio. He would have provided continuity.

  5. @Seb

    I’m not sure what you’re disagreeing with. I didn’t say anything about Coordinators not being essential to success. I simply said that position coaches are as important or more so to a team’s success. You can create the best scheme and draw up the best game plans in the world but if you can’t coach the players at their positions to execute their roles…none of those fancy X’s and O’s schemes matter. It’s something that gets lost when some of us X’s and O’s nerds dive deep into schemes. But position coaches by themselves are useless. There has to be a coherent plan to connect all the positions/players

    I think Saleh is a solid DC. He’s growing. I think early on he was too scheme dogmatic and it hurt the Niners. He wasn’t quick enough to adjust to changes in personnel IMO. But he’s been evolving over the past year so it will be interesting to see more from him. There are still some things I would do differently but that’s just me at this point.

    1. AFFP, I am not strenuously disagreeing with your premise. I do agree that position coaches are very important.
      .
      Maybe it is that you assert they are more important. Maybe if you had just said that position coaches are just as important to a team’s success, I would not have disagreed.
      .
      I certainly agree with your last paragraph. Saleh, while young and inexperienced, is a solid DC. He has made mistakes, but he has greatly improved the defense in some areas, but needs to improve in other areas, like takeaways.

      1. Seb,

        Let me put it to you this way: It’s been my experience that if you took a vanilla DC but had the positions coached top notch so that everyone knew their roles, how to do their jobs, are confident and the players weren’t completely out of their depth….a well coached and disciplined defense can play effective if not dominant football.

        On the other hand a brilliant DC with the most strategic game plans that try to take every tactical advantage won’t work if the players aren’t well coached at their positions, if they’re confused, unfocused and lack confidence….the best laid plans are useless without the players to execute them. An ad absurdum example would be if every aspect of the defense is perfect from the plan on down to the last detail except one thing….no one taught the players how to tackle. Nothing else on defense matters if the players can’t tackle…no amount of scheming matters.

        Obviously there should be a synthesis between the strategic and tactical planning to go with the player’s skills and how they’re coached. But IMO the foundation of a team is how well they’re individually coached, if they’re disciplined and confidant. If you don’t have those fundamentals the rest won’t hold together very well.

  6. One wrinkle the Niners may want to consider, is for the QB to take a few steps with the RB. He reads the play, then has the option of letting the ball carrier go, or pulling it back for a pass or bootleg back the other way.

  7. My concern with all this is that the 49ers are already behind the 8 ball on the RPO. Integrating it into the game plan is fine, but defenses will have a full offseason thinking about how to shut it down, with some examples provided by teams like the Pats. The 49ers don’t want to get fixated on installing a wrinkle that teams already have a handle on how to stop.

  8. In summary, it seems the best way to defend this is for teams have the backside/conflicted defender play the pass first and have D-linemen athletic enough to beat single blocks. If the niners had decent corners, they would be well suited to do this.

    A serious pet peeve of mine is how often this teams db’s give up inside leverage. Having big db’s means nothing if opposing qb’s are not forced to throw around you. Let us hope the new db coach is able to coach up our players.

  9. Chris Biderman
    ✔
    @ChrisBiderman
    A candid Richard Sherman on free agent safety Earl Thomas: ‘If the money’s equal, he’s going to Dallas.’ But he expects the #49ers to be a clear option. Called SF an ‘easy fit’ for the All-Pro.

    90
    9:47 AM – Feb 27, 2019

    1. However, money is not equal, because Texas has no personal income tax. Thomas’ big beef was wanting to get paid the big bucks. California will take a big chunk of his salary.
      .
      I wish him well, but if the Niners are rebuilding, he will not be factored into their future.
      .
      However, the Richard Sherman lobbying should also be a big factor in the equation.

      1. Seb, your post is a bit misleading. This idea that athletes automatically pay way more in taxes in California, as compared to a state like Texas, is not necessarily true. Sure, Texas has no income tax, but its property-tax per capita is considerably higher than California’s. If Thomas is at all smart, and does what most people do who have money and move to a state – buy a house, and invest in property – it is highly unlikely that he would be taxed significantly more in Texas than California. Property taxes are considerably higher in Texas, and property value appreciates at a lower rate. So when you factor in all taxes – federal, state, local, sales taxes, there isn’t a huge difference between the states. All things considered, overall economic performance in California matches or exceeds Texas in most of the important metrics, provided a person uses his money wisely, as California has the second best economy in the country, behind only Washington state, while Texas comes in at number 20.

        And I would argue that, even if he does end up paying a bit more in taxes to play in California, it’s worth it. No question that if you have the money, California is a better place to live. The weather is far better in California. The average marriage lasts longer in California. The average lifespan is longer in California. STD’s run rampant in Texas as compared to California. Texas is home to the most venomous spiders in the country. And if Thomas cares at all about gun safety, California, IMO, has much more sensible gun laws. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not against gun ownership – I myself own 3 of them, and I believe in the right to bare arms. However unlike California, Texas is failing its residents, including its children, when it comes to gun safety. Unlike California, Texas law does not ban high capacity magazines, which I find mind boggling in 2019. Furthermore, Texas does not place restrictions on gun shows, does not extend background checks to private transfers, nor does not require any waiting periods for gun purchases. For crying out loud, Texas doesn’t even require firearms be safely stored when possessed or transferred – California does!

        If Earl Thomas is half as smart with his money as he is as a football player, California should be a more attractive place to live, than Texas, with the exception of Texas barbecue. The burgers are better in California, but Texas has some of the best barbecue cuisine in the country, I’ll give them that.

        1. Is this someone from the new Governor’s staff?

          For the first time in it’s history, their are now more recorded drug addicts in S,F, then High School graduates…….not to mention the human feces all over the business district.

          I know, I know………………….I’m a hatemonger and a pedaphile-phobe.

          2. Hatemonger, in case you didn’t know, California is a lot bigger than San Francisco. Secondly, drug addiction is a nationwide epidemic. In fact, California ranks in the lowest 25% percentile, 38th out of 51, in terms of drug use per capita. And in terms of high school graduates, California ranks above average, whereas most of the southern red states, rank as the lowest in the country in terms of high school graduation rates per capita.

            So if you’re trying to make a political statement, I suggest you get off your high horse and do some research. Just saying.

      1. KYLE SHANAHAN said something interesting today: The 49ers front will adopt more “wide-9” techniques for defensive ends

        I can confidently assume that this means the 49ers may be targeting a DE(s) who excels at speed rushing – a lightning quick first step while blowing past the tackle, and reaching the quarterback as he completes his drop. Typically, the “Wide-9” technique player is a pure pass rusher, quick, agile, with the ability to pin his ears back and blow past the opposing OT while dipping their shoulder as the move around the defender. In the 49ers current scheme, the LEO is usually the best pass rusher on the team. While he does play the C gap in run support, his primary responsibility is getting after the QB. He generally aligns himself out wide, angled back toward the quarterback, and has limited run responsibility.

        The 49ers don’t currently have a player who fits this role like a glove, which would suggest to me that the 49ers are targeting a very specific kind of DE, either through free agency, or more likely, the draft. Their best pure speed rusher on the current roster might be Cassius Marsh, and that’s not saying much. While there may be players who fit this basic mold available after day 1, I’d prefer a player who has some versatility, rather than a one-dimensional pass rush specialist. I think ShanaLynch likes versatility as well, and I do believe the 49ers will address this position with the 2nd pick in the draft, unless they receive a trade offer they simply cannot refuse, and I doubt they will.

        It’s Bosa or Allen in round 1 barring anything crazy. BOOK IT!

          1. Bosa is everything, lol.

            You’re right Grant, he doesn’t necessarily fit the bill as a pure speed rusher, as he may not have the deepest dip and flexible bend around the edge, but it doesn’t really matter because he is so darn good at getting off the ball with his lightning quick first step, OT’s are left reaching before they can kick-step into position, and then Bosa’s hands are so strong, and his technique is so strong, even if the OT is able to get his hands on him, he’s quick to counter. Whether it’s a violent swim move, or another technique designed to keep the OT from locking him up, Bosa’s got a chest full of flawless techniques.

            Allen is also quick off the ball, and certainly fits the speed rusher mold better in terms of his length, the ability to dip his shoulder, and bend around the edge, but he doesn’t possess Bosa’s hand work, and technique.

            If the 49ers do trade back, Montez Sweat is a guy I like a lot. How about you Grant? If the 49ers trade back 6-10 spots, would you take Sweat if he’s there, or someone else?

            1. I’ve gone back and forth between Bosa and Allen, in terms of impact for this defense.

              I could be talked into believing Allen is the best option for this 49ers defense, but then I’ll go back and watch Bosa absolutely dominate his opponents in every way possible, on just about every single snap. Bosa strikes fear into a QB, and that’s what this team needs.

              Then again, so does Allen so …. dang it, here I go again.

  11. Just curious, I know the 40 time is a benchmark, but what Combine drill is more important for evaluations. The 3 cone drill or the 20 yard Shuttle?

  13. I think you’re making too much of the RPO. The Eagles had success with it but the longer it’s around the better defenses will be at defending it. I think you already see a decline in using the RPO. It’s like the Wildcat. It will be phased out soon.

            1. We’ll see how valuable Ross is if and when a team trades for him. As for Thomas, his book has another chapter this season.

              2. Dunno, but I’d imagine a 4th is where they begin and doubt any team agrees to send more than a 5th for him.

              3. AFFP,
                There is no way Thomas is worth 1 WAR or even .5 WAR.

                By the end of the season he was a first down or short yardage package player. Armstead was better at stopping the run and better rushing the passer… by the end of the season Thomas was the replacement.
                How many backups do you know that are worth 1 WAR in a 16 game season?
                I’m not saying he’s terrible, but rather that his skill set neither valuable or hard to find.

              4. @shoup

                Solomon Thomas’ PFF score was graded out as Average. And to my eyes I think he would play better if he was left to play as an interior defender. So I stick with my .05-1.0 WAR assessment.

                My assessment of Thomas has no bearing on my opinion of Armstead. If you follow the thread, both Grant and I agree that Armstead is obviously the better player.

                I’d say there are probably quite a number of .05-1.0 WAR back ups in the league. These are the borderline starter guys. Guys who might start for another team.

              5. AFFP,
                I just think that’s an exceptionally high WAR for backup.
                In baseball a great players have a WAR of around 10 games in a 162 game season. 1 game in the NFL is roughly the equivalent to that. With that in mind I think only qb’s and a select few players are worthy of a 1 WAR or higher.
                With that in mind scores of 0.5 or higher should be reserved for very good starters at important positions, ie EDGE, WR, LT, CB and the elite at positions like DT, RB, TE.
                Maybe it’s all semantics, I just think there are very few players with the kind of WAR score your talking about.
                If you’re stating 0.05 to 1 then the range is quite large.

              6. @shoup

                I think you latched on to my baseball WAR example too literally. I’m grading these guys relative to their position and not weighting their position against other positions.

                Let me try again.

                Let’s say:
                4+ WAR = A
                2.0-3.9 WAR = B
                0-1.9 WAR = C

                Thomas is a C player (in fact he’d be a C+ player based on his PFF score…he’s ranked #63 at his position). He was a below average player that became an average player. So he’s improved.

              8. @grant

                He’s a quality two-gapper in the run defense. Other than that, he’s replacement level.

                Hence my grading Thomas as a 0.5-1.0 WAR like player. Grade C….which is about what his PFF ranking is. His run defense bumps him a little above replacement level. Hopefully he improves a little more. His pass rush becomes adequate and he gets into that high C low B grade range and becomes a good trade candidate. Or he over takes Armstead.

            2. I think Thomas’s fate might also depend on what the Niners want to do with Armstead. He’s the only proven 5T/Big End on the roster. He’s a good run defender and gets good interior pressure as a pass rusher (but obviously he’s no sack master)

              On the other hand IMO of all the D-line positions (I would prefer the versatility of a 2 gapper at the Big End and NT positions…but that’s me), I think that position might be the easiest to fill with at least adequate production.

              2. He is…I agree. But is the difference in skills and abilities that much of a difference between the two that having Thomas replace Armstead would result in a big enough drop off in production?

                I mean yes the defense would take a hit but would it be significant enough to warrant not going forward with Thomas?

              3. Good question. The run defense would not take a hit, but the pass rush would. Armstead recorded 12 QB hits last season. Thomas recorded six.

              4. Do you think Thomas’ pressure and sack total would have been better if he had dedicated as an interior pass rusher for the entire season?

              5. No. He recorded only three QB hits after Week 6, despite playing more as an interior rusher down the stretch.

              7. A PFF report on NFL D-lines talks about the Niners and Thomas. They say:

                “The continued mediocrity of Solomon Thomas as a pass rusher is starting to reach concerning levels in San Francisco….ranked 90th out of 109 edge rushers this season in pass-rushing productivity.

                The problem IMO is that they still rate him as an Edge Rusher. Which to be fair he was primarily in 2018. But I don’t think that will be the case going forward. I still don’t know WTF Saleh was doing playing around with Thomas on the edge as a pass rusher. His initial draft profile said he was an interior defender/pass rusher.

              8. Thomas isn’t as good of an interior rusher as Buckner or Armstead, so where do you play him?

              9. I don’t think that’s the question.

                I think you either play Thomas as an interior defender (Big End is an interior defender as he usually does not have any force or containment duties and I assume he gets kicked inside in passing situations) or you trade him and hopefully get something of relative value for him.

                The real question is what is the value of a “Big End”/5T position? Not a lot of these guys who play the position well are demon pass rushers. Some are decent or okay pass rushers. But then that’s not their primary job is it? So is Armstead worth keeping around and for how much? The $9M tag price seems expensive….but maybe it’s the starting point in terms of guaranteed money for a more reasonable long term contract? And this ties into my earlier question about how much of a drop off in production can you live with at the position (both at the 5T and pass rushing DT positions) going with Thomas instead of Armstead?

                I do not know the answers to my own questions about this yet. I’m still thinking about the position and best use of resources. QB hits are a good stat but they are not the only indicators of pass rush productivity. I’m also curious about his pressures too. Also, if I’m a coach, while results are what ultimately what counts, I would be looking at his film to see if he’s made any progress in how engages and hopefully beats his blocker….even if it doesn’t result in a sack, hit or pressure.

              10. Armstead clearly is the 49ers’ second-best interior pass rusher, so he has value to them. They’re not in a position to get rid of their second-best interior pass rusher.

              11. The more reports I read about Armstead, the more I’m inclined to keep him.

                As for Thomas. Believe it or not I think what the Niners are doing with him right now is probably the best decision (other than having him pass rush from the edge).

                Keep rotating Thomas in on the edge for runs and inside as a pass rusher (I’m sorry but to my eyes he looks better inside). Maybe he becomes something that the Niners want to keep. In the very least he hopefully builds up enough good film to make him a decent trade chip next year.

                But trading him now I think is selling low.

              13. I don’t think Thomas had a bad season. In fact I think he improved over his rookie season.

                It’s all relative. He’s not a dominant defensive lineman that we all expected from a #2 over all pick. But he’s not a garbage player. If we were using baseball WAR I would say Thomas is about a 0.5 to 1.0 WAR player. Now from a #2 overall pick we want a 5+ WAR player. And while I don’t think Thomas is on track for that kind of career or production, I think he can still get better.

              1. My statement has to do with an opinion. Yours seems to be in the spirit of fact after polling NFL executives.

              4. How is Ross as a receiver?

                However receiving skills aside, I can envision Ross as a speed demon on the fly sweep in the Tyreek Hill mold. Of course Hill also has some wiggle and runners vision to go with his speed…I don’t know about Ross’s skills as a ball carrier.

                You’d think Pettis would excel in this area. Pettis has good speed (not elite speed) but more than all but a select few linebackers and most DBs. He’s a former college Punt Returner so in theory he should have wiggle and vision.

              5. I think Ross is a better receiver than Goodwin and Pettis. Ross was the No. 1 receiver at Washington, and Pettis was the No. 2. Ross breaks down well for a burner, has good hands and is surprisingly effective in the red zone.

              6. I think you’re underselling Goodwin as a receiver. I think he actually plays better as a Flanker than a traditional speedy Split End. But due to health and family issues he hasn’t been able to piece together continuous production.

                Ross’s college production over Pettis I think is more of a function of the offensive scheme. The offense was basically simple iso ball most of the time….and who wouldn’t want to iso match up Ross on somebody be it deep or in a bubble screen. But Pettis was often the go to guy down the field when the Washington wasn’t playing simple iso ball on the sidelines (they famously didn’t like passing the ball in the middle of the field except to Pettis). What I’m saying is that I think Pettis’ skills set might work better in the traditional NFL than Ross. However Ross is still a match up nightmare and more and more of the NFL is playing the simple iso match up game as opposed to full field passing concepts.

              7. Good points. The problem with playing Goodwin at flanker is he can’t physically hold up. He had a few good weeks playing that position in 2017 until he had a nasty concussion Week 17.

              8. We already know Goodwin will see a reduced amount of snaps because Shanny said as much. So, it’s not going to matter if he plays flanker, or the slot or split end….

              9. “I think Ross is a better receiver than Goodwin and Pettis.”

                If he is better than them, why has he been so awful in his first 2 years in the NFL? Heck, Pettis already has better stats than him in 1 injury ravaged year.

                Ross was overrated in 2017 based on his speed.

                I wouldn’t be against trading a low round pick for him per se, though I don’t really see the point of it. He’d just be another guy at the position they already have covered, and not as good as the two guys ahead of him.

                But a straight swap for Thomas? No way. Thomas at least has been a starter and rotational player his first two years and contributes in the run game. Ross barely played as a rookie and in year 2 despite playing 600+ snaps only had 21 catches for 210 yards. Sure, the 7 TDs are nice, but that had to have been the surprise element for defenses because he barely got the ball otherwise.

            2. Razor, How many times do you think an NFL personnel man needs to see Solomon Thomas get absolutely destroyed on a block by a TE or how many times do they need to see Thomas run directly into the middle of an OT and get swallowed up whole before that NFL personnel man decides his max trade offer needs to be nothing or maybe a 6th round draft pick but only if that team has multiple 6th round draft picks?

              2. to be fair to Thomas, there are run blocking schemes that take advantage of Defensive Line rules. The “pin” tactic lures a D-lineman to block down because they see the O-lineman down block. So the D-lineman is often taught to follow and fight that blocker: “step down block down” is the rule. So with the D-lineman following the OT down block by fighting to get inside the TE then seals the edge blocking the unsuspecting D-lineman…almost from behind All the while the D-lineman is simply following the rules he’s been taught within his defensive scheme.

            1. The Bengals have a new coaching staff and the 49ers don’t. The 49ers are invested in Thomas.

              5. If a team that drafted him in the top 10 doesn’t want him as a third or fourth option, why in the hell would any other team?

              7. What exactly does Thomas have to do with Ross? Nothing. Ross is reportedly on the trade block and Thomas is not. This interjection of Thomas has to do with your fantasy and using it to generate clicks. K?

              9. They both have O’s in their last names too, but only one is being acknowledged by their respective team as a “bust”, and only one is on the trading block….

              11. That doesn’t support your argument, Grant. It supports mine because it’s a McVay coaching tree hire, and if he can’t find anyway to utilize Ross’ speed, pretty much no one can….

              12. That’s why I think the issue has more to do with character or maturity. Ross clearly fits any play-action-based offense. But, his Wonderlic score was 16. Maybe he’s not smart enough to master the complex Shanahan-McVay offense.

              13. Yea, I don’t believe that. You don’t give up on a player like that unless there’s a big reason. The egos of these offensive gurus know they can fix the warts of maturity/character issues, mitigate lack of football acumen, etc. This is most telling to me, and I’m sure the rest of the league. That’s why I don’t think Ross will net the Bengals anything more than a 5th round pick, if that….

              14. I know McVay felt Sammy Watkins wasn’t smart enough, and that’s why the Rams got rid of him. Maybe Taylor feels Ross isn’t smart enough.

              17. Exactly, and Zack Taylor should be salivating over Ross’ talent and excited about devising all kinds of creative ways to use him from within his offensive laboratories. But, he’s not. That’s telling, and now that the Bengals are publicly denying the trade report; it tells me they got nothing but dink offers….

              18. If Solomon Thomas were as good as you think he is, Robert Saleh would be excited about devising all kinds of creative ways to use him within his defensive laboratories. But, he’s not. That’s telling.

              19. I’ve seen nothing to suggest the 49ers are shopping Thomas, or Saleh not wanting him. On the contrary, I think they hired Kocurek to invest in him, along with the other defensive lineman. Seems to me an offensive guru was hired to invest in Ross, but for some reason he doesn’t even want a year’s worth of interest. Maybe increase his stock before shipping him out. That’s telling with a story behind it, not some fantasy trade tweet. This could be your come to Jesus moment. You can thank me later….?

              20. Lynch’s job security is tied to Thomas, so it makes sense Lynch would hire a new DL coach. That doesn’t mean Saleh wants to use Thomas in pass-rush situations.

              21. Well, we’ll find out how good Kocurek is at his job, how good Woods is at his, and how good they can be together to increase our pass rush proficiency. K?

              22. The Bengals have a new coaching staff and the 49ers don’t. The 49ers are invested in Thomas.

                Technically Thomas has a new coach in Kocurek. As for the 49ers investment in Thomas, I think that will only continue if Kocurek is able to get more and noticeable production out of him this season.

              23. Lynch’s job security is tied to Thomas, so it makes sense Lynch would hire a new DL coach.

                If Thomas struggles but the rest of the team does well, then Lynch will be back in 2020.

      3. I don’t know why Cincy wants to get rid of him. But if he’s been a good soldier, the answer is yes imo. As I understand it, those five TDs were short-yardage plays, where he wasn’t taking advantage of his speed, more his quickness. Ross appears to be better at his position than Thomas is at his, plus we need better depth at WR, not so much at DT. And tweener DTs don’t make sense at this level imo. Thomas was a major stretch of a pick.

          1. I’m a deadly serious guy, my friend. What don’t I know about Ross that I should, other than his 7 TDs on 21 receptions last year?

            1. George, there must be a reason why they are shopping him. Blazing speed should be a reason to keep him.
              .
              Maybe he has an unknown, hidden injury.

            2. George, I hope you’re being facetious. The Bengals hired a disciple of McVay. He’s supposed to be an offensive guru. One would think that a guru would love to get his hands on and develop one of the NFL’s fastest players. Perhaps move Ross around like a chess piece while defenses have to worry about the offensive supporting cast? I think that speaks volumes, and if you can’t hear that, you might want to try a miracle ear….

              1. There’s nothing I’ve been able to find on the web about character or work ethic issues. Injury issues, yes. And from 2018 youtube highlights it’s obvious the guy’s still fast and quick. So we’ll just have to see what’s reported about this over the next week or so.

              2. I’ve not mentioned injuries or maturity issues. I’m talking common sense. Again, why would a supposed offensive guru, who is a disciple of McVay not want a talent like Ross? Answer that question, and you won’t need anymore reports….

              4. George, the Bengals are now refuting a John Ross trade. Let me again assist in translating this new report. It means compensation offers were grim….

              5. George, I know you are looking to improve the Niners, but I do not think Ross is the answer. He is a duplicate of Goodwin, and has the same injury issues.
                .
                They might also had been looking for a second round pick, and only got 4th round offers.
                .
                Rams or Indy might be interested.

              6. I do not think Ross is a duplicate of Goodwin. Ross is fast like Goodwin (likely faster at this point). But Goodwin can actually run a variety of routes and make adjustments. Ross right now is just a guy that runs fast. Both have been plagued by injuries.

              7. OK, Ross is a less talented duplicate of Goodwin. They would play the same position. Both have blazing speed and injury issues.

      4. If I was running the team, yes.
        Thomas is a run stuffing 3tech and he’s not as good the niners other run stuffing 3tech (Armstead). Additionally, The niners already have a backup waiting in the wings.
        Ross and Goodwin will have similar rolls but they are both smaller and might be injury prone. The problem is that this roll really opens up the routes for Kittle and the running backs. Additionally Ross is more likely to develop as a receiver than Thomas as a pass rusher, which essentially limits him to 1st down.

    3. George,
      Is this the same John Ross that set the football world on fire when ran a 4.2, 40 at the Combine?

      Well, these are the numbers for the Combine darling of 2017:
      John Ross WR, 2017, 9 pick Cin. Bengals.
      13 games played, 21 career catches, 210 career yrds.

      Seems like every year we get a combine super star that does not translate his ability to the pros.
      John Ross is clearly one example.
      Pretty sure that someone in this years combine will emerge as a star only to hit the wall in the pros.

      Maybe John Ross finds his groove with another team or maybe he’ll just be known for the guy who lit up the Combine with his blazing speed.

      1. Hi AES. I was responding to Grant’s question about trading Ross for Thomas straight up. I didn’t say that we need to get this guy or anything like that. I just said that if he’s been a good soldier the answer is yes because we need better depth at WR and we don’t need Thomas. That’s it. Ross might be a bust. On the other hand, Shanahan gets receivers wide open and Ross has no trouble catching the football. Also we need to rotate someone with Goodwin. I didn’t get into that above, but it is true, so maybe it would make sense if Ross isn’t a jerk, does his work in the gym, reads tape, etc.

        1. George,
          I apologize if my response seemed critical. I was not undercutting your comment.
          I was merely saying that every year the football-heads are carried away by combine extra ordinary feats that aren’t realized on the pro level.

          That said, I’m not a Ross fan (at the moment) and would not trade him for Solo.
          I believe that Thomas gets one more season to show he belongs.

    1. Fans, A Signal or Smokescreen before the NFL Combine—Possibly a big time receiver on the horizon?

      SANTA CLARA, CALIF.
      The San Francisco 49ers have added former NFL receivers Wes Welker and Miles Austin as assistant coaches.

      The 49ers announced several staff moves Wednesday highlighted by Welker’s addition as receivers coach and Austin’s as an offensive quality control coach.

      Wes Welker by The Numbers:
      5× Pro Bowl (2008–2012)
      2× First-team All-Pro (2009, 2011)
      2× Second-team All-Pro (2007, 2008)
      3× NFL receptions leader (2007, 2009, 2011)
      NFL record 99-yard reception (tied)
      3X SuperBowl Participant
      Mosi Tatupu Award (2003)
      2× First-team All-Big 12 (2002, 2003)

      http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001019085/article/niners-hire-wes-welker-miles-austin-to-coaching-staff

    1. Seb’s has been reporting on the AAF—Wow, the NFL combine and now this! What a grinder, where have I been?…Hope he doesn’t turn into Joe Gibbs or Andy Reid, both notorious for sleeping at team headquarters to the detriment of their families.

      Cassie Baalke, If Seb asks you to be team Seb’s cheerleader will you support him?

      Charlie Casseley’s lastest Mock Draft :

      2. Josh Allen – Edge
      School: Kentucky | Year: Senior
      The 49ers are in desperate need of an outside pass rusher.

      1. Unless he’s changed his mind of late, Sebbie feels the AAF isn’t worthy of his attention–a low-brow bush league at best.

        1. HaHaHa LoL ! Agreed…Seb presents himself as a man of the people, protector of the Civil rights, but he has his bourgeios side. I envision Seb’s in a luxury box with team ownership sipping his bougrier V Vovray and nibbling on Brie cheese–not grinding on the coaching sideline

          1. Cassie, I did tape a game, and ran through it on fast forward. I saw lots of drops, mediocre QB play, and gassed O linemen. I stopped when they showed a shot of the fans, then stopped when they stopped angling on the field and got an overview shot. Yup, one section was full, and the stadium was empty otherwise. I actually watched a couple plays, and was amazed at how slow it was. It was not preseason football, college football, or even high school football. There were some pee Wee plays like throwing the ball over one’s shoulder.
            .
            I think the defense was told to go easy on the offense, so they could actually complete a pass. I deleted that game and do not plan to dote on Ricky Patton or Reaser.

            1. Try watching without your nose thrust skyward.

              Funny. I watched the game last weekend which had Patton playing–same game you hurried through? The stands–while certainly not full–had far, far more in attendance than just one section. Pay attention Sebbie. So quick to judge and dismiss (and distort).

              The NFL could benefit from a development league. The AAF might fill that role–perhaps sooner than some may think. Might. It’s not perfect, but it’s functioning. Some AAF players will be in camps across much of the league this year, and those players will have benefited from a boatload (!!) of needed reps. Let’s see how this whole endeavor cycles through all of 2019.

      1. Armstead’ play last season gets him another year, imo. But I would not be surprised or disappointed if the team moved him.
        Just like in Thomas’s case, I believe we can do better at both positions.

        But having said that, that sentiment covers much of the current defensive personnel.
        Lynch needs to hit a home run this off season on selections.
        He drafted 3 starters last year. This season he has to make good on FA’cy.

        1. 49ers are choosing to pay a guy with chronic shoulder injuries $9M guaranteed next year. Armstead had a decent year last year but it was because his shoulder was able to hold up longer than normal. It’s an absolute guarantee that Armstead will see a recurrence of his shoulder issue which will drive him out of the lineup for extended time. It’s just a matter of when. Guys don’t have their shoulders pop out of joint as often as Armstead’s does without that issue recurring. Armstead is an IR candidate waiting to happen.

            1. I don’t guarantee I’m right all the time but I’m damn sure right more often than Luffa Boy.

        2. “He was one of their best on the DLine last year.”

          Well, aside from Buckner, that isn’t saying much.

      3. Unless the price is prohibitive, why should the 49ers get rid of their second best defensive lineman?

          1. they still have until March 19th before the money goes hard.

            nevermind…just read Shanahan’s statement about Armstead playing on the option.

    2. I think they should bundle him with another player or players, to facilitate a trade. The Niners have an excess of D linemen, and slot WRs. This would be done to gain more draft picks, or swap for a starter in an area of need.

    3. This move will be in the Jimmie Ward realm if Armstead’s production does not take an incredbile leap this upcoming season. $9 million is a lot of money to pay for someone with his injury history and production.

      1. Armstead’s salary isn’t in the $15M+ that the elite pass rushers get.

        He graded out by PFF as an Above Average to Good Defensive End. They Rank him as #26 at Defensive End.

        Near the end of the year PFF had this to say about Armstead:

        The former Duck product has earned game grades above 65.0 nine of his previous 10 games with San Francisco, all combining for the seventh-ranked overall grade (87.1) among the 82 edge defenders with 250-plus defensive snaps in Weeks 4-14. Furthermore, across his 138 defensive snaps in Weeks 10-14 (four games), Armstead has earned the sixth-highest overall grade (88.3) among qualifiers.

          1. The 49ers aren’t good enough to keep letting talented players leave. Vance McDonald and Trent Brown are exhibits A and B.

            1. McDonald has been up and down his entire career, with the down part being the more common theme. And while Brown played well last season, it remains to be seen if that was a result of Brady’s quick release or Brown’s growth; it will also be interesting to see if Brown’s commitment fails off after signing a big deal.
              Armstead has been good, but he has been far from great and missed significant time due to injury. If his production does not increase in 2019 and/or he is injured, then then it can justifiably be said the $9 million should have been spent elsewhere.

              1. You act like the 49ers are strapped by the salary cap. $9 mil on a one year deal is nothing.

              2. Based on NFL Defensive Linemen salaries. $9M is a bit of a deal for Armstead’s current level of production.

                If $9M is average. And Armstead grades out as above average to good. Then $9M isn’t an outrageous salary for him. And a 1 year commitment is a no brainer.

              3. No Jack, I am not that stupid to think the 49ers are strapped for cash. However, I think the decision to pay Armstead $9 million for his fifth year option is a bad one.

              4. He’s one of their best on the DL. Keeping him for a year on a prove it deal is smart business.

              5. Again, that is not saying much since Buckner was the only true bright spot on the DL in 2018.

          2. What do you think a good defensive lineman is worth?

            The AVERAGE salary for an NFL Defensive Lineman is $9M.

              1. what are there like 3 total in the league? At the upper end Calais Campbell gets about $20M a year. PFF has him ranked #1.

                Define “Big End”. I can but it’s too much trouble. Who else do you want at the position? What kind of productivity are you expecting>

              3. From what I understand, the big end is the one on the DL who plays at DE against the run and slides inside to DT when defending against the pass. He is usually bigger and less athletic than the LEO, and he is a 5-tech.
                What kind of production am I wanting? The type that justifies $9 million. Seasons lost to injury and mediocre stats do not justify that.

              4. What kind of production am I wanting? The type that justifies $9 million. Seasons lost to injury and mediocre stats do not justify that.

                That’s somewhat of a circular answer and a disappointing one.

                Again, for point of reference: Calais Campbell plays a similar position, makes about $20M and is rated #1 at his position.

              5. Calais Campbell is a far better playmaker than Armstead and has a better track record at playing through an entire season, so of course he is getting $20 million. Campbell is in the big leagues while Armstead is still trying to get out of the Pop Warner level.

            2. Sorry Mid and Houston,

              I’m with AFFP and Jack on this one. The dropoff from Armstead to the next guy is BIG.
              9 million for a DT on a 1 year prove it deal isn’t that much, it makes him something like the 16th highest paid DT in the NFL.
              The alternatives would be to either
              1: Draft another big end, which would be a lateral move and not allow the team to improve other areas of need.
              2: Sign a free agent which would likely cost the team more money.
              or
              3: Accept a significant dropoff at the position and allow a team on the low end of the talent spectrum to lose one of its better players to save some money for????

              1. I agree. To even mention money as a reason not to assign a 5th year designation is specious.
                .
                I am demanding that they spend every dollar of the cap space. Saving cap space for profits is just not trying to win. I am sick of all the losing.
                .
                They had 43 million in cap space, and you wonder why they are 4-12? Extend Buckner. Throw money at Trey Flowers. Throw money at Tyrell Williams. Buy a championship. Do not save for a cellar dweller.

      2. Armstead was 4th in tackles and QB hits last year. An incredible leap isn’t necessary to make this pay off. It’s the smart play.

            1. Obviously. It isn’t saying much either given how bad the DL sans Buckner was last season.

              1. This is the response I was expecting.

                What it says is that the team shouldn’t let the few good players that it does have walk. They’ve done that a few times in the last 2 years when they shouldn’t have.

              2. We must be good mind readers because I expected this rebuttal. What few good players are we talking about?
                McDonald? 2018 was the first season he had a strong season in terms of overall production.
                Reid? It was believed by several outsiders that Tartt had played just as well if not better than Reid in 2017, so the decision to let Reid walk was a judgment call that every team would have had to make.
                Brown? He was not a fit for the offense Shanahan runs and the outside run scheme Bobby Turner uses. It also remains to be seen if Brown will continue to be committed and play like he did this season.
                None of these players that were released, traded, or allowed to walk in free agency justify the reasoning behind paying $9 million to Armstead.

              3. McDonald has always been a better TE than Celek.

                Reid is better than Tartt.

                Brown was a better RT even before last year than his replacement.

              7. I watched MacDonald crush a DB, then rumble down the side line to score a TD.
                .
                That was impressive.
                .
                Brown did his job, and helped the Pats win a SB.
                .
                Brady was untouched and the Pats averaged over 150 yards rushing per playoff game. That was also impressive.

  22. Good job Grant. Very informative. So the biggest takeaway for me is that it all comes down to execution. Same players continuing in the system should have better results next season.

    What is this other project that you are working on? ;)

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