2023 49ers Mock Draft, 2.0

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1. I don’t see them using pick #91 on a WR when there are quite a few very interesting WRs available in the 5th, 6th and 7th. R. Johnson better be really good because as injury prone as Mitchell might be he is really really good. Also CMC is also at an age where he might not make it the whole season which could elevate Johnaon to RB #2 pretty quickly. You must be extremely high on Fehoko to draft him in both of your mocks and to wait untill the 5th round to fill one of the 9ers top 3 needs (imho). I don’t know how good any of the mock draft simulators are but I have done 4 or 5 of them this year and none of them had DTR lasting to the 6th round. I am going to do one more Mock it will be interesting to see who hits on more players using 3 mocks (if you plan on doing a 3rd) An Idea for next years draft, how bout the 1st annual Hammer’s mock draft contest with the prize being some kind of spend the day at a 9ers game with Jack.

2. Thanks Jack

   Ji’Ayir Brown sounds like he could also play slot because of his box and blitz abilities.

   I wonder how Roschon Johnson’s blocking and receiving is. Could he play snaps at H-Back or Fullback? Roschon and CMC would be a nice backfield pair.

3. I really wany Trey Lance to start for the 49ers week 1.

   I won’t feel good about any trade fetching less than three 1st round picks and a 3rd. And one of the picks has to be 12 or higher.

   Let Trey Play

   1. Agreed. Would seem strange at best for the 49ers to completely give up on Lance before he’s really had a chance to succeed or fail in the NFL. He only played five quarters over two games before suffering the injury in Week 2 against Seattle. Give Trey a chance, especially when Purdy’s ability to return and perform effectively as before is so unknown.

4. Jack,
   Nice mock, but I must admit that I liked your first mock. Without any trades in your original mock you had some very good talent.

   I would keep Eli Mitchell rather than trade him for R.Johnson with only 7 picks separating them. Fehoko was on your 1st mock and it’s nice to see him on this one as well.

   Mapu (not on your 2nd mock) is a player who I think could fluctuate between Safety and special packages as a LB, imo.

   My trade would be for either Edge, Isaiah Foskey or OL, Cody Mauch. My mindset is that either of these players could produce as rookies and compete for a starting job in year two.

   1. Has everyone given up on Drake Jackson?

      1. Drake finished last season on a poor note. He looked tired and weak at season’s end. I still like Drake, but if he can’t build up his stamina to play at full strength for an entire season, his value will drop.
         I see this as a reason why the 49ers will draft an EdgeR next week as a contingency plan. They need more pressure coming off the Edge than Drake provided and an EdgeR that also takes some pressure off Bosa.

5. Well CMC is also at an age where he might not make it the whole season which could elevate Johnaon to RB #2 pretty quickly. You must be extremely high on Fehoko to draft him in both of your mocks and to wait untill the 5th round to fill one of the 9ers top 3 needs….

6. I’d be pretty annoyed if they traded up and drafted… a TE.

7. I’m no salary cap expert but I think the timing is perfect to not draft 1st and 2nd round players this year. Seems like their would be multiple positive ripple effects 3 years from now where the 49ers will be in a great spot to reload. With good QB play and maybe one or two O Line upgrades the 49ers could be Super Bowl contenders next year even without 1st and 2nd round picks. I’m totally fine sitting tight in this draft.

8. Funny thing ,the Spartan is a powerful rusher who finished 2022 with 66 total pressures. He recorded 26 sacks over the last three seasons….

9. I’m not sure I’d trade away Lance. You’re gambling that Purdy will be ready or that Darnold is the guy. I think Darnold could be the guy. But I wouldn’t place most of my eggs in that basket.

   Why waste so much draft capital on a backup Tight End? Do you think Shanahan will start running more 12 and 22 personnel groups? Otherwise the backup TE comes in every once in awhile to mostly block and catch maybe a dozen passes a season. Kittle’s not going anywhere for the next 3 years. Are you just assuming he’s going to miss a lot of time?

   I definitely wouldn’t trade Mitchell. The 49ers go through like 6 running backs a season. Seriously, I wouldn’t fault them for drafting all running backs with each pick.

   I think it’s questionable (not out of the question) that Brown and Brown make it to the end of the 3rd Round.

   It’s interesting that I think in the last few years the 49ers have tried to find a more powerful between the tackles kind of runner like Terrelle Davis, Arian Foster and Alfred Morris (they ran wide zone but were primarily inside runners). But so far it seems like they’ve had their most success with fast, quick and agile runners that can turn the corner or are slippery on inside runs.

   1. Niners W-I-L-L draft a QB after trading Trey. I like Grant, but sarcastically labeling Brock as ” the Annoited One”, while continuously propping Trey disrespects what the last person in the draft did in getting the 49 ers into the playoffs in the first place . No one has Annoited Brock. He caught the national and bay area press off guard. What the story line s/b is why a Mr . Irrelevant can make the lay-up passes and Trey was inconsistent with those??? Shanny knows what works, just as Steve Kerr knows his offense. Who went over shannys head for this pick? Do your job bay area press, find that answer?

10. Mike Martz on Trey Lance:

    https://www.the33rdteam.com/category/analysis/trey-lance-not-ready-to-start-development-will-take-time/

    Some snippets (edited):

    “I remember the first time I saw Brock Purdy play. He was calm and steady from the moment he saw his first meaningful NFL snap. He was decisive, accurate and confident while leading the 49ers to nine straight victories last season. It’s striking how different Purdy is compared to the quarterback who entered the 2022 season atop the 49ers’ depth chart. Because you just don’t see those same qualities with Trey Lance.

    It’s easy to see what the 49ers fell in love with. Physically, Lance is impressive. He can throw it, has good skills, and he’s athletic. Those three things made him stand out in pre-draft workouts. But he’s not quick with the ball. He doesn’t look like he knows the offense very well, either. Like many young quarterbacks, he tracks receivers; he gets right to his No. 1 with his eyes, which against zone coverage pulls everybody in that direction.

    The speed of the game, handling information and retaining it, and then being able to apply it on the field instantly — like Purdy does — it’s just not there for Lance. And then how calm is he under the gun? Some guys just aren’t able to do it, they buckle under pressure, even with good players around them. That’s what I see in Lance.

    The 49ers are in a bit of a predicament. Purdy is the unquestioned starter after what he showed last season, and I suspect Sam Darnold wasn’t signed to be inactive on game days. So, where does that leave Lance?

    It’s probably unfair to him to say he can’t play in this league at a high level, but right now he can’t, and there’s no doubt the 49ers recognize this as well.”

    1. What Martz really explains well there is the difference between intelligence and football smarts. Lance is undeniably intelligent and well educated but he may not possess the kind of football smarts it takes to succeed in the NFL. I hope this can put an end to those on the blog who like to question the intelligence of QBs.

       1. I don’t see anywhere in his comments that talks about football smarts or intelligence so it’s hard to see how you come to the conclusion that intelligence isn’t required for a QB. IMO, we are all born with a certain degree of intelligence and physical ability and probably with a desire to succeed. In order to have what you call football smarts, one has to have some level of intelligence (ability to learn) along with the work (desire) required to learn the game. No one is born with football smarts or any kind of other smarts. It requires intellect and desire to learn. This should be obvious. To have a high degree of success at anything one has to have the ability and the desire.

          The statements Mike Martz made are very interesting. By all accounts Trey has the ability, both mentally and physically so maybe the missing link is desire. This is not unusual in a young person who is so gifted as Trey is because they have always been so successful without having to put in a lot of effort. Add to that, they gave him the starting job last year without any competition or having to earn it, so why invest too much learning the offense. Martz says he appears not to know the offense very well. That would explain his hesitancy and lack of confidence under pressure. I’m convinced he’s smart enough to fully learn the offense and hopefully he has taken the time this year while he was injured to go all in on learning the offense. If so, he should be able to compete with anyone.

          1. I don’t know about that. See this final comment from Martz, which was not shown above.

             I think things would improve if you kept him for three years and had him around so he could learn the offense. Still, he tracks receivers, and no matter how much coaching or time he has to sit and learn, that’s a difficult habit to break. Quarterbacks who track receivers want to see where everything is, where they’re going to throw the ball right away. You can’t do that in the NFL.

             1. Well he’s the expert but I think Trey can improve if he is coachable and will put in the effort but we’ll see what happens.

             2. You know who that sounds alot like?…..Kaepernick. That was the one trait that defenses figured out and exploited. Damn.

    2. George, the Q is did we blow 3 picks for someone who can’t play and are we ready to swallow that in exchange for a low (2nd, 3rd?) draft choice?
       We used 5 QB’s last season. I think it would be stupid to get rid of him at this point. We might need him and we can get the same or more for him if we keep him and he gets to play some.

       1. Completely giving up on Lance before he’s really had a chance to succeed or fail would be just as questionable as trading 3 1st round picks and a third for him in the first place. And what would such a move say about the drafting prowess of Lynch and Shanahan? Not much.

       2. Dee, I agree that it would be stupid to trade him for a low 2nd or 3rd, but what about a 1st?

          1. George, I’ll take a mid to high 1st, otherwise it’s a waste of capital.

    3. You mean Martz, the same clown who wanted JT O’Sullivan to be our QB and do a 7 step drop and look deep when our line couldn’t block anyone? Yeah I woudn’t listen to a word that idiot thinks about anything. There is no way he could know any of that about Lance because he barely played.

11. I would be down for this! Nice job Jack.

12. No one is born with football smarts or any kind of other smarts. It requires intellect and desire to learn. This should be obvious. To have a high degree of success at anything one has to have the ability and the desire….

13. Tell Grant 49ers draft a QB . He keeps sarcastically slamming Purdy as “the Annoited One. ” Believe me, Shanny knows what works for his offense just as Steve Kerr knows his offense. It’s the press who needs to do their job to find why Mr irrelevant is better than Trey – did somebody go over shannys head, and can we not slam Brock for saving the season and giving fans hope

    1. We’re not giving up on Trey my friend. The 49ers well documented rookie contract benefits end next year. They are not retaining a QB with inexperience for
       a 25 million dollar increase, therefore all the trade leaks prior to the 2023 draft

14. Interesting comments by Kruger. He feels that if the 49ers make a trade on draft day, they will trade either Lance or Aiyuk for Isaiah Foskey.
    Of course, this is all speculation since no one knows what the 49ers have planned for draft day.
    But, I’ve been touting Foskey for sometime now.
    We’ll all know by this coming weekend’s end.

15. Jack Hammer
    @JackHammer_NFL
    Apr 21
    S2 Cognition test results per @BobMcGinn:
    Bryce Young – 98%
    Jake Haener – 96%
    Will Levis – 93%
    Jaren Hall – 93%
    Clayton Tune – 84%
    Anthony Richardson – 79%
    Hendon Hooker – 46%
    CJ Stroud – 18%

    Uh-oh for Stroud

    1. Stroud didn’t seem to have any issues in college.
       The S2 Cognitive testing envolves many levels including motor skills, athletic skills, control skills just to name a few.

       Not sure if this particular test was around in the 60′ through the 80′ but there were QB’s in that era that were pretty good with many of them now in the HOF.

       1. I heard that there is a direct correlation between the S2 score and success as a NFL QB. As I’ve heard it explained, it measures the ability to make quick decisions. Strouds number is horrible. I pity the team that risks a high pick or any pick on him. I also would stay away from Richardson as well. As I’ve stated previously his stats are just horrible and I’ve questioned the mental side since the physical side is outstanding.

          1. Felix,
             This is put out by S2 Cognitive.com.
             It’s lengthy, but gives a good explanation.

             “Are these skills genetic or learned, and are they trainable?
             Like most complex behavioral and cognitive processes, performance involves a complicated combination of genetics and experience. There are certainly cognitive skills that depend a lot on genetics, but the expression of most cognitive skills depends a lot on opportunities to exercise these skills in learning experiences, practice, and real-world performance. Cognitive systems in the brain develop at different speeds and peak at different ages, and some systems are more trainable than others. As a general rule of thumb, many visual processing skills, such as how fast we recognize visual information, are pretty well developed by our early teens, so training should really be focused on learning to process the visual cues in the performance context as well as possible rather than trying to do generic visual training to further develop your visual processing systems. Other cognitive skills, such as impulse control and controlling our distractibility, aren’t fully developed until our late teens and sometimes into our mid-twenties, and these systems are more trainable and able to be adapted during performance. Still, the best approach is to train these systems in the performance context. The ultimate goal for training these cognitive systems is to push these systems to be the best they can be, as consistently as possible, when you perform on the field.”

             It’s a good measurement of an athlete. But, to what extent?
             Purdy had a high score on this test. Yet, he was the last player drafted. That proves to me that the overwhelming majority of football teams don’t put much emphasis on the S2 test.
             And more importantly, players such as Lance and others who may not have scored high, still have a very good chance at becoming big stars under very good training and coaching guidence.
             As the old adage goes – the proof is in the pudding. Lance will get his chance.

             1. AES,
                What this explanation said to me is success at this test has very little to do with traditional intelligence like academic success. It is a specialized test tying reaction to decision making. Like I have been saying the kid with a learning difficulty who struggled mightly at academics (like Frank Gore) could score high on this test and succeed at football, while academically bright players like Blaine Gabbert might fail at this test and football.

                1. Actually Trey also scored very high on the S2. On a piece that Barrows did several months ago, the head of S2 stated that their was a very strong correlation between the S2 score and success as a QB.
                   There are many attributes that are required to be a successful QB, but looking at the current draft rankings of QBs it just shows that people still value physical skills over everything else. You conclude that most teams don’t put much value on S2 and that may be correct to their detriment. Clearly physical skills don’t correlate highly to QB success. See Montana, Brady, Purdy, etc. I could also name the QBs on the other side with great physical skills who were flops. The miss rate on QBs is very high, so teams are missing something in their evaluations. Poor decisions or slow decisions are clearly a major factor in QB success and that is what S2 measures.

                   1. Good points Felix.
                      I think that there is an important factor that the S2 test fails to recognize. And that is that players like Montana, Brady and Purdy have also been successful because of great caching and great players around them.

                      While the S2 test solely focuses on the individual player, on a team sport with so many players and coaches, there are too many variables involved.
                      Alex Smith scored very high on his wonderlic, but had the misfortune of playing on a horrible 49ers team with equally bad coaches.
                      It wasn’t until he played in KC with better players and top shelf coaches that he succeeded.
                      S2 leaves out many important variables to make it a sure thing for me.

                2. Decision making occurs in the brain. As I’ve stated before it requires both the intellect and desire to learn what’s needed to make quick and correct decisions.

                3. Exactly, Coach.
                   The Wonderlic test which has been used for decades to measure the players mental acuity has not been a sure thing either.
                   Case in point is none other than Dan Marino who had a below average score. He is the perfect example that these so-called high tech test aren’t the gospel.

             2. Actually Trey also scored very high on the S2. On a piece that Barrows did several months ago, the head of S2 stated that their was a very strong correlation between the S2 score and success as a QB.
                There are many attributes that are required to be a successful QB, but looking at the current draft rankings of QBs it just shows that people still value physical skills over everything else. You conclude that most teams don’t put much value on S2 and that may be correct to their detriment. Clearly physical skills don’t correlate highly to QB success. See Montana, Brady, Purdy, etc. I could also name the QBs on the other side with great physical skills who were flops. The miss rate on QBs is very high, so teams are missing something in their evaluations. Poor decisions or slow decisions are clearly a major factor in QB success and that is what S2 measures.

                1. I believe that the reason so many QBs miss in the NFL is that there is a vast difference between playing QB in college and playing in the NFL. A much bigger difference than playing other positions. Steve Young said the biggest difference was, in college you throw to mostly wide open receivers where in the NFL you throw to well covered WRs but the QBs job is to throw them open. He said every NFL QB can complete passes to open receivers but only a few QBs coming out of college can learn to throw receivers open.

                2. “Actually Trey also scored very high on the S2.”

                   You are correct, Felix. But when you compare the vast drafting range between Trey and Brock, it only varifies (to me) that the S2 test is not the highest determining factor in a players abilities.

                   1. You’re putting a lot of stock into drafting range when we all know it’s been a crap shoot. Where a person was drafted means absolutely nothing once the draft is over. Obviously many mistakes are made by many people during the draft. The fact Trey got drafted high and Purdy low only means that Trey was the mistake.

                      Probably nothing is the sole determinant in a players ability but decision making would be right up there at the top. I know it’s old school to look primarily at physical abilities but as a species we continue to learn new things about ourselves all the time. S2 is a relatively new tool to use and it’s obvious than many people have not yet caught up.

                   2. I beg to differ. When a team trades 3 #1 draft picks for one player compared to choosing the last player in the draft it is a huge draft range.
                      And no, it doesn’t mean that Lance was a mistake by any measure.
                      It only means that the 49ers lucked out on Purdy. Had the 49ers and other teams known how good Purdy was going to be, I seriously doubt that he would have made it out of the 1st rd. The 49ers caught lightning in a bottle with Purdy, and this happens with many teams in the league.

                   3. AES,
                      “this happens with many teams in the league” Not in the 7th round especially at the Mr. Irrelevant spot.

                   4. Coach,
                      “this happens with many teams in the league” Not in the 7th round especially at the Mr. Irrelevant spot.

                      You’re right, that’s why I referenced that the 49ers caught lighting in a bottle with Purdy.
                      At the same time, there have been many day 3 picks that have found success in the league. For that matter, even some UDFAs (lower scale than Mr. Irrevelavent) have found success in the league. That being said, I doubt that any team thought Purdy was going to be as good as he turned out.
                      It would be interesting to find out how many late rd to UDFA players have become stars.

                   5. AES, and if everyone had only known how poorly Trey would play no one would have taken him in the 1st round. I guess your saying is that drafting is all about luck.
                      I guess we both believe hindsight is 20/20. I’m not sure what this has to do with the importance of the S2 test.

                   6. AES,
                      That info is available just google best 7th round picks ever best 8th…I think you will find more UDFAs that have good to great careers than 7th round picks because the player/agent get to choose the organization that best fits the player. If I was a UDFA RB I would sure take a good look at the 9ers.

16. That’s probably as good a guess as any. I was thinking more along the lines of a RT or edge if they have someone they really like.

    1. 2:53 pm
       “AES, and if everyone had only known how poorly Trey would play no one would have taken him in the 1st round.”

       What are you basing your comment on?
       All of the 4 games he’s played?
       One bad freak injury?

       You and I, have yet to see Lance play 3 straight games in a row. If anyone could write off Lance at this point in his career, they would have to be the best/worse football analyst in the NFL.

17. For what ever reason Kruger doesn’t believe that the 9ers need for a RT is all that big. Whether he has them trading up or staying pat his mocks have them going heavy DBs both S and CB and DL both edge and DT

    1. For the 49ers to find a RT that could push for a starting job this coming season, they would need to get to the top end of the 1st rd, or early rd 2. I believe that the 49ers trust the current players on the team and will look to draft a RT who can develop down the road.

18. In order to have what you call football smarts, one has to have some level of intelligence (ability to learn) along with the work (desire) required to learn the game. No one is born with football smarts or any kind of other smarts….

    1. JEDI ?

19. Finally, Rodgers to the Jets. The Packers receive a swap of 1st rounders #15 for #13. A second rounder a sixth rounder and next years second. The Jets receive the 1st round swap and this years 5th rounder.

20. Sorry guys, I signed with the Jets, CNN, FOX and Bud Light all in the same day !
    GOAT !! Have a beer, your choice it is a free agent country.

21. Reed is one of the best route runners in this draft class. In addition to his play making as a split end, he has found success as a kick returner as well.

22. Reed is one of the best route runners in this draft class. In addition to his play making as a split end, he has found success as a kick returner as well….

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