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Unscientific look at receivers in draft Martz might favor

We discussed the state of the 49ers' pass rush yesterday. Today, we address the wide receiver position.

The 49ers signed Isaac Bruce after the Rams released him. That is the only move the 49ers made at that position in free agency.

Again, we turn to GM Scot McCloughan for his thoughts on the position. He figures Bruce and Darrell Jackson are the front-runners to win starting jobs. But he added Arnaz Battle, Ashley Lelie and Jason Hill (more on him later) will also be in the mix. McCloughan described the receivers in a similar tone as he talked about the pass rushers.

"It's a functional group," McCloughan said. "Our receiver corps is good enough to win a lot of games with. Do we have a superstar on the team? No, but I think we have some good football players to make us a better football team. . . . They're not difference-makers but they're dang-good football players, and I'm excited about that."

* * *

And my response is going to be a lot similar to what I wrote about the pass rushers. Although the 49ers' receiving corps is among the least-imposing in the league, the 49ers were wise not to go after anyone in free agency with the ridiculous money that was being thrown around for guys who probably aren't even No. 1 guys. The Vikings paid Bernard Berrian a reported six-year, $42 million deal with $16 guaranteed. Javon Walker, who played eight games last season and, according to Mike Shanahan, needs microfracture surgery on his bad knee, received a six-year, $55 million deal with $16 million guaranteed from the Raiders. I seriously doubt the 49ers will ever regret spending the extra money to get those players.

Expect the 49ers to take a receiver within the first three rounds of the draft. But who will it be? Could it come as early as the No. 29 overall pick? Let's examine this subject a little closer.

* * *

Seems to me that the 49ers would be wise to take a wide receiver who fits the Mike Martz profile.

Disclaimer: The following breakdown of trends as they relate to Mike Martz's preference in wide receivers was not produced using scientific methods. The margin of error is plus/minus . . . uh, a lot. (But, who knows, maybe we're on to something here.)

The first thing that jumps out at you is the similarities when looking at the wide receivers chosen by the Rams while Mike Martz was offensive coordinator and head coach. On paper, these receivers look about the same. The prototypical Martz receiver is about 5-11, 185 pounds and runs 40 yards in 4.44 seconds. I'm only theorizing here, but it seems that in this system you need a smaller, quick guy who can adjust his routes on the fly. He needs to get in and out of breaks quickly.

Let's take a look at the seven drafts when Martz was with the Rams and see how similar those receivers looked, based on the measurables from their respective combine performances:

1999: Torry Holt, N.C. State, first round (6-0, 192, 4.44).

2000: None.

2001: Milton Wynn, Washington State, fourth round (6-2, 207, 4.46); Francis St. Paul, Northern Arizona, sixth round (5-10, 185, 4.45).

2002: Eric Crouch, Nebraska, third round (6-0, 195, 4.47).

2003: Kevin Curtis, Utah State, third round (5-11, 186, 4.42); Shaun McDonald, Arizona State, fourth round (5-9, 169, 4.43).

2004: None.

2005: Dante Ridgeway, Ball State, sixth round (5-11, 212, 4.57).

Also, in 2003, the Rams signed receiver Mike Furrey, who went undrafted in 2000 and bounced around in the XFL and Arena League. When Furrey was coming out of college, his measurables were 5-11, 180, 4.55.

We're choosing to ignore Martz's time with the Lions because it's unlikely Martz had the same kind of influence into personnel. The Lions took Calvin Johnson (6-5, 239, 4.35) with the No. 2 overall pick last year.

* * *

Now, let's take a look at some of the top receivers in the upcoming draft, according to NFLDraftscout, and see if they fit the so-called Martz profile:

Malcolm Kelly, Oklahoma (6-4, 224, 4:54): Too big, too slow.

DeSean Jackson,Cal (5-10, 169, 4.35): Height not a problem, a little light (durability?), but his speed is great. Pretty good fit.

Limas Sweed, Texas (6-4, 215, 4.55): Size and speed don't match the profile.

James Hardy, Indiana (6-6, 217, 4.49): Speed is just barely acceptable, but his big body is difficult to maneuver on option routes.

Devin Thomas, Michigan State (6-2, 215, 4.40): A little too big, but his speed makes him tempting.

Early Doucet, LSU (6-0, 209, 4.54): His size is just about right, but the speed doesn't fit.

Andre Caldwell, Florida (6-0, 204, 4.37): Looks pretty good to me.

Mario Manningham, Michigan (6-0, 181, 4.60): Size is good, but the speed is not up to par.

Earl Bennett, Vanderbilt (6-0, 209, 4.48): Not bad.

Donnie Avery, Houston (5-11, 192, 4.49): Size is about perfect, could be just a tad quicker.

Eddie Royal, Virginia Tech (5-10, 184, 4.39): Very, very intriguing.

Jordy Nelson, Kansas State (6-3, 217, 4.51): Doesn't quite cut it as far as size and speed.

Lavelle Hawkins, Cal (5-11, 187, 4:59): Ideal size, but wish he were a little quicker.

Harry Douglas,Louisville (5-11, 176, 4.51): A bit on the light, slow side.

Dexter Jackson, Applachian State (5-10, 182, 4.37): Definitely worth a flier in the fourth round.

Keenan Burton, Kentucky (6-1, 201, 4.49): Toward the cut-off point for size and speed.

Will Franklin, Missouri (6-1, 214, 4.37): A little big, but has nice speed).

Of course, none of this takes into account whether the guy can actually catch the ball and play the game . . .

* * *

But perhaps the best addition from last year will be Jason Hill. You might not remember, but the 49ers drafted this guy in the third round last year. He caught all of one pass last year for 6 yards. At the combine, Hill's measurables were 6-1, 204, 4:32. Sounds like a pretty good fit to me.

* * *

A lot of questions about Takeo Spikes. I don't see how the 31-year-old would be such a great upgrade. Also, the Eagles released him after he failed his physical. Old and injured, not a great combination. Not a good fit for the 49ers.

* * *

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Comments | Add Comment

Posted By: Duane Nelson (28/10/2009 4:23:17 PM)
Comment: This is definitely something to revisit as we see Avery, Royal, and DeSean Jackson and Mario Manningham these days. Lots of people wanted Hawkins...

Posted By: Old School (30/07/2009 4:32:54 PM)
Comment: Looking back on the WR class. Avery, Royal, and some guy Jackson from Cal...

Posted By: AustinNiners (13/03/2008 2:04:16 PM)
Comment: I have long read your blog and wanted to thank you for allowing me to keep up with my favorite team. Quick question; is it wise to try and draft "Mike Martz receivers"? What if he follows the trend and leaves next year and we are stuck with some receivers that don't fit the next coordinators style of offense? Why cant the 49ers draft the best receiver available and have the coordinator find a way to utilize him? Again thank you very much for your work.

Posted By: B (10/03/2008 12:39:24 AM)
Comment: I like Jason Hill, if you watch him on you tube he looks good. He reminds me of a couple pretty good WR, torry holt, and a little eric moulds mixed in.

Posted By: Jesse (09/03/2008 9:50:15 PM)
Comment: I should probably preface this by saying I am a Mizzou fan as well as a 49ers fan, but it disappoints me that Will Franklin is ALWAYS an afterthought when discussing potential receivers in the draft. Physically, he matches up with just about every single WR in the draft. He's got great size (I disagree with the notion that you can be "too big," but even if that's true he played at around 200 this year, not 214). He's an exceptional athlete (tested as well or better than pretty much all receivers). He's made many, many NFL catches over the past three years. And on top of all that, he is a 49ers fan AND a Martz fan, and he wants to play for the 49ers.

Posted By: mchampneys (09/03/2008 6:27:29 PM)
Comment: All of the best coaches in the league have been fired one or more times. Saying that Martz is not a good coach because he has been fired before is not a very good argument.

Posted By: kirby (09/03/2008 6:26:34 PM)
Comment: o and we should have shawn hill start the season, I hope it is a open try-out and not just given to Alex cause he has proven nothing

Posted By: kirby (09/03/2008 6:21:40 PM)
Comment: I didn't want Bruce to get 80 and we are going to be 4-3 now

Posted By: oneniner (09/03/2008 2:25:11 PM)
Comment: we can still pick up Hardy in the 2nd round (fingers crossed), right now i am getting the feeling picking an O-lineman in the 1st might be the safe route.

Posted By: iLL49er (09/03/2008 1:59:25 PM)
Comment: Matt, Question for you in regards to the scouting of Alex Smith before the draft. A friend told me he heard from either you or Matt Barrows' reporting that Nolan asked Rodgers and Smith to do some silly things like hop on one foot etc and Rodgers declinded to do these things but Alex complied...and this was part of the decision making process in selecting Alex Smith. Is this true?

Response: I don't believe that's entirely accurate. I don't think Rodgers ever declined to do anything. (That would've been pretty bad form.) I don't know that the 49ers asked Rodgers to do that stuff. I think the 49ers had made up their mind much earlier that Smith was the No. 1 QB. I'm not sure about the specifics of instructing Smith to hop on one leg, but I seem to remember they asked him to do some stuff with ballhandling, such as moving the ball from one hand to the other, while circling his knees. --Matt M.

Posted By: Pual Hubbard at #29 ??? (09/03/2008 12:41:29 PM)
Comment: Not a chance. He'll go no earlier than the third, but most likely in the fourth round.

Posted By: Parker (09/03/2008 12:14:00 PM)
Comment: Confirmed by SI that niner scouts were present and accounted for during Wisconsin's pro day on Wednesday. Paul Hubbard WR is indeed on the niner radar at #29.

Posted By: Pete in New Hampshire (09/03/2008 10:14:32 AM)
Comment: What do you guys think about Roy Williams? Rumor is that Detroit has him on the trading block -- Matt, do you know why?

Posted By: buzz (09/03/2008 9:52:15 AM)
Comment: p.s. sorry marc after looking at your post -a bit redundant...finally looked at jordy nelson beating a.talib on you tube as suggested by previous poster-getting more and more impressed by this guy!!! Hey Tmoney-Sam Baker would be a good p/u but like Cherlus also wondering why Brandon Albert seems to get bypassed by so many Mocks!?!

Posted By: Cody Pickett (09/03/2008 9:47:21 AM)
Comment: FYI: . . . On paper, Quentin Groves looks like the perfect prospect to make the transition from college DE to NFL OLB in 3-4 defense. But last season (2007), Auburn moved from DE to OLB for a few games, and he proved a bust, so they moved him back to DE. Eventually, he may make it as a 3-4 OLB in the NFL, but at this point he looks like a high risk choice who should not be drafted until Round 3. . . . OT Sam Baker was well coached, had a very good career at USC, and indeed has lotsa OT skills. But he is a bit small (6'4-5/8", 305 lbs) without the frame to add much muscle & bulk, and he is a finesse player, & not particulary powerful as a run blocker. He prolly will have a 10 year career as a middle of the pack, non-star OLT. He deserves to be drafted late 2nd round, but cuz of his USC heritage, he'll prolly go between # 32 and # 40.

Posted By: buzz (09/03/2008 8:00:09 AM)
Comment: Yes Fitzgerald is a nice fleeting thought- but out of the question for the money..."build thru the draft"...many of the prospects mentioned on early posts have a chance of making the team and helping our level of play...this is a fortuitous time for them -a new OC /system and a chance to get in on ground level-just feel E.Royal/Jordy/etc. in middle rounds would be a better deal for us!

Posted By: Marc - NJ49er (08/03/2008 10:12:06 PM)
Comment: Yes Larry Fitzgerald is the real deal, No we don't want to strap the cap to obtain him. Let him continue to strangle the Cards, advantage to the rest of us. Eagles are desparate for a WR, let them take him out of this Division. Maybe we can appreciate the job Scot and Parage have done since bringing us out of the same situation several years back, only ours was more about dead money, which in turn forced the releases of higher priced guys. AZ faces this with 1 player, great planning on their part.

Posted By: tmoney (08/03/2008 9:37:58 PM)
Comment: 49ers Draft 1st round Sam Baker, 4 year starter at USC good bloodlines, quick feet, excels at pass blocking and would give the niners with Joe Staley two bookend tackles for the next 10 years could start at RT with Staley shifting to LT 2nd round Lawrence Jackson De/Elephant productive stud with good size 6'4" 271 and strength 31 bench press reps and he will boost pass rush 3rd round Chevis Jackson CB great corner project could take over for walt harris in 2 years and jump T. Brown and Spencer opposite Clements 4th round Harry Douglass great fit in Martz's scheme, productive at Louisville, great hands and speed 5th Round Jamie Silva S Boston College Two words FOOTBALL PLAYER. Will help immediately on ST and will eventually be a stud Safety. He was fluid in Db coverage drills at the combine unlike Kenny Philips. He can hit has a nose for the football and is a playmaker, a real sleeper. 6th round Chris Mcduffy OG Clemson,Great size and strength adds depth, helped pave the way for Clemsons # 1 rushing attack in the ACC. 7th Round Andrew Crummy G Maryland adds more O line depth but is a bit of a project. Has some health concerns which have hurt his draft stock; he could develop into a starter in 2-3 years Also would not mind A. Caldwell in the 2nd, Zibikowski in rounds 3/4 his stock dropped because Notre Dame blew Goats last year, he would have been a 2nd rounder last year or Owen Schmitt in round 4/5 a real bad ass

Posted By: tgflynn (08/03/2008 9:33:31 PM)
Comment: Quentin Groves OLB/DE-Auburn got three sacks last year. He missed two games with an injury but still, three sacks. He is physically gifted no doubt, but his production has never lived up to those gifts. He had 12.5 sacks his last two years, whereas Bruce Davis UCLA had 24.5 sacks and probably would be available at our round three pick.

Posted By: tmoney (08/03/2008 9:08:17 PM)
Comment: Fitz for a first rounder and D jax dude this isn't madden, you need to reacquaint yourself with reality.

Posted By: 49ers5xchamps (08/03/2008 8:24:32 PM)
Comment: What are the chances of the 49ers going after Larry Fitz. The guy is a stud. What about trading D Jack and the first rounder for him?

Posted By: Bugsy (08/03/2008 8:21:52 PM)
Comment: This is my 49'ers draft projections if the niners don't trade down. 1st Round: Quentin Groves OLB/DE-Auburn (Pefect for the hybird OLB/Elephant Position in the 3-4 that the Niners use). 2nd Round: Trevor Laws DT-Notre Dame (Can play LDE so Issac Sopoaga can play the NT position). 3rd Round-Oniel Cousins RT-U.T.E.P (Can play at RT position). 4th Round: Harry Douglas WR-Louisville (Perfect Slot Receiver for Mike Martz Ala Bobby Ingram & Steve Smith)5th Round: Dwight Lowery CB-San Jose State (My sleeper pick, and insurance Shawntae Spencer & Terrell Brown can stay healthy). 6th Round-Jeremy Thompson-DE Wake Forest (Can't have enough pass rushers on the team). 7th Round-Eric Ainge QB-Tennessee (Was coached my Mike Martz at the Senior Bowl).

Posted By: SB from SF (08/03/2008 7:27:34 PM)
Comment: 5-11 3/4', 198 pounds, 4.58 40 time according to pro football weekly - http://archive.profootballweekly.com/content/archives/draft_1999/scoutingreports_wr.asp

Posted By: Samra (08/03/2008 6:54:22 PM)
Comment: Hey matt..Darrell Jackson is about 5-11 180...any idea on his speed coming out of college and what it might be now???...do you think he is a good fit for martz

Response: Darrell Jackson, 2000, Florida (5-11, 197, 4.58). --Matt M.

Posted By: buzz (08/03/2008 5:59:25 PM)
Comment: Billy this kid is the REAL DEAL from what I have seen-and he throws the ball well ...imagine what coach Martz might concoct with Jordy and Robinson being able throw the football effectively!

Posted By: billy (08/03/2008 4:54:40 PM)
Comment: Man, I really like Jordy Nelson. Protypical Martz receiver or not, that guy has it going on (and he's got his head on straight). Plus, he doesn't lube on his hands like Darrell Jackson

Posted By: Samra (08/03/2008 3:53:29 PM)
Comment: Hey matt..Darrell Jackson hes about 5-11 180...any idea on his pseed coming out of college and what it might be now???...do you think he is a good fit

Posted By: Cascarche (08/03/2008 3:42:57 PM)
Comment: Thanks Pete. While we ponder the abilities of Fitzy G., there probably are not many people who seriously think we'd get him. The divisional rivalry thing pretty much kills it. However, thats a huge cap number they are carrying for him, so they might be motivated to shift him. Its been speculated on pft that he might not be willing to restructure his current deal on the cards coz he wants out, which would add up. Razor - not every player plays their best in every game, even all-pros have off days, especially at the WR position, due to the fact they rely on a) a QB to throw to them and b) a line to give the QB time. Randy only had about 7 catches for about 80 or 90 yards (from memory, cant be bothered to research the exact totals) in the whole playoffs...doesn';t mean he isn't awesome!

Posted By: illini49er (08/03/2008 3:15:00 PM)
Comment: Larry Fitzgerald is scheduled to make $14 million this year and $17 million next year, for a toal of $31 million for two years. Can anyone honestly say he is worth that amount of money? Arizona has tried to restructure his contract, but he is not budging much. If he won't do it for them, I doubt he would for the niners either.

Posted By: shobbrobb (08/03/2008 1:20:19 PM)
Comment: Larry Fitzgerald? Wally its sounds good on the surface and the price is about right. BUT...No Way the Cards trade Fitzgerald to division rival Niners also look at this guys salary cap issues....

Posted By: Parker (08/03/2008 12:53:48 PM)
Comment: Matt - Another receiver to add here: http://wisconsin.scout.com/a.z?s=193&p=8&c=1&nid=1801559 Paul Hubbard, Wisconsin (6-4, 216, 4.38 on pro day). Not Martz size, but Calvin Johnson wasn't either. Anybody seen this kid during Wisconsin games?

Posted By: GridironGreat#9 (08/03/2008 12:41:14 PM)
Comment: Matt I enjoy your insight on the team and have been for a while. The question that I want to pose to you is about the WR corps. Is there any chance the Antonio Bryant could rejoin the team? He would give us a legit #1 and also would free up draft picks this year as well as in the future. thank in advance!

Posted By: 49erssre94 (08/03/2008 12:41:00 PM)
Comment: Good point... What about Kendrel Bell? He was born into the NFL through the 3-4 defense.

Posted By: Pete in New Hampshire (08/03/2008 12:36:03 PM)
Comment: Cascarche has got the right idea. The thought of Larry Fitzgerald boggles the mind -- I would absolutely trade a 1st and a 2nd for him. He's the real deal, dominates, no guessing or hoping allowed. Two things to like about Martz: he knows how to determine who can play and what they have to do to be a pro, and as a former head coach, he's strong enough to tell Nolan to back off. Rotaldinho, your secret's safe with me! Fitzgerald outside, Davis in the slot, Bruce in motion, Gore as the dump off, and Norris picking up the blitz -- good luck Shehawks. Now that's a fantasy to warm my heart on a rainy day.

Posted By: 49erbull (08/03/2008 12:13:42 PM)
Comment: What about Kendrel Bell? Last time he was in a 3-4 defense he went to the probowl.

Posted By: Razoreater (08/03/2008 11:30:34 AM)
Comment: if fitzgerald is so friggin good why did we practically shut him down?

Posted By: xzexzrazxexazerxazryxarzxa (08/03/2008 10:43:50 AM)
Comment: Hey Matt, have you been on the sauce??? "And my response is going to be a lot similar to what I wrote about the pass rushers." lol. I'm surprised StonerLab hasn't "called you out" on your grammar already! ;-)

Posted By: Tucker (08/03/2008 10:40:29 AM)
Comment: Sadly, as much as us Niner fans want to forget and/or ignore it, Historian has a point...Martz has been fired from his last two jobs, and deservedly so. He should be an upgrade over Hoss, even if he isn't the second coming.

Posted By: NJ - Mike (08/03/2008 10:04:41 AM)
Comment: The Bears took the most unscientific look of all at the WR position: They just signed Brandon Lloyd.

Posted By: Rotaldinho (08/03/2008 9:56:11 AM)
Comment: Pete in NH: Good call re: VD with a late split. He has the tools to cause problems if used correctly, and now, hopefully he will be used correctly. Splitting the TE out just prior to the snap is my signature move on Madden...but don't tell anyone lol

Posted By: cascarche (08/03/2008 9:53:54 AM)
Comment: Re: Fitzy G. i'd trade this years and next years 1st round picks for the guy. he's a young, elite level wr, who has his best years ahead and who can dominate games.

Posted By: Rotaldinho (08/03/2008 9:51:01 AM)
Comment: D-Jax could re-emerge as a good WR under Martz and Bruce should upgrade Battle, even if just for a year or so. While Lelie and Hill might develop in the system, it sure would be nice to get a 1st round talent into the mix, so be groomed and polished under Isaac.

Posted By: Razoreater (08/03/2008 9:46:56 AM)
Comment: uh...i'm definetly not down with trading picks 29&39 for larry fitzgerald

Posted By: cascarche (08/03/2008 9:45:56 AM)
Comment: darklord: you're right about that. berrian wouldve been a nice pickup but was way too expensive. the raiders amuse as always. letting a perfectly good receiver in porter walk, and throwing the checkbook at javon walker. we may have the yorks, but compared with ol' al davis, they're great!

Posted By: Wally Champ (08/03/2008 9:33:00 AM)
Comment: Matt, Larry Fitzgerald is on the trading block if they can't re-do his contract. If the Niners could get him for a 1st, or even a 1st and a 4th or another player, they should do it in a heartbeat. No WR in this draft is guaranteed to be a Fitzgerald, and the guy is only in his mid-twenties. Please ask McNolan about this. I know that Az wouldn't want to trade him in the division, but even if that means slighlty overpaying, the Niners should do it. It sounds like the Cardinals might have to get rid of him. This would shore up the offense instantly. I'm not going to go on and on about this, but I feel very strongly about it, and I think that the Niners should do it immediately. I would even give up two day one picks for the guy. Any thoughts?

Posted By: Cody Pickett (08/03/2008 8:44:39 AM)
Comment: Re Takeo Spikes: I don't know how much his game has deteriorated, or what salary he wants, but could he be any worse than Tully Banta-Cain? (I'm not yet sold on Jay Moore or Parys Haralson, either.) 49ers' biggest need, IMHO, is a versatile OLB, and that's true whether the base D will be 4-3 or 3-4.

Posted By: Tcubpat (08/03/2008 8:13:31 AM)
Comment: Quick is the answer for Martz. When Warner started for the Rams, it was the QB's quick release and the speed of the receivers that made the difference. Turf was a big factor for this speed as well. In Martz's system, the OL can entice the rush, it will provide a

Posted By: darklord (08/03/2008 7:50:25 AM)
Comment: Add to this theory Martz's comment about the ease of which a WR catches the ball. Quick guys that catch the ball with ease out of breaks is what he longs for

Posted By: Pete in New hampshire (08/03/2008 7:35:24 AM)
Comment: I'd like to see VD in the slot, but only moving out there at the last second, forcing the defence to react to us, something that didn't happen too much last year.

Posted By: StonerLab (08/03/2008 7:28:49 AM)
Comment: Marc, Buzz, I concur again with you guys. Royal would be a great pick in the 3rd round if he's still there. So my perfect scenario would be; 1st round / OT, 2nd round / Edge Rusher, then Royal in the 3rd. Man! that would be something. The 49ers would address most of their needs in the first 3 rounds then continue to add depth where they feel is needed on day 2. As for Jason Hill, he could very well break out & thrive in Martz's offense if he stays healthy.

Posted By: buzz (08/03/2008 7:11:28 AM)
Comment: Razoreator Albert in second would be a coup!Cherilus in first!?Watch out Jonas!

Posted By: rob_deluca (08/03/2008 6:57:56 AM)
Comment: oh and im happy to see this topic ... #1 wr is our biggest team need other than d line and or pass rush !!!!

Posted By: rob_deluca (08/03/2008 6:54:56 AM)
Comment: good to see s. hill fits the martz bill now maybe we'll be able to see what he can do ! even better to see lavelle hawkins fits the profile he might just be the man and the 9ers should have a good shot at him !!!! also to repeat myself has anyone heard the rumor about the 9ers trading for a wr ? (maybe with detroit?)

Posted By: kansas49er (08/03/2008 6:17:00 AM)
Comment: jordy nelson would be a great fit. great athlete, was doubled team alot and usually had their best defender on him. smart player, who can go after bad passes, he did that alot a k-state. caldwell would be a great addition also. but i think jason hill will have a good year, in mike martz system

Posted By: buzz (08/03/2008 6:07:50 AM)
Comment: Great line in the new PFW Draft issue about Jerome Simpson being able to catch BB's in the dark!

Posted By: buzz (08/03/2008 5:58:38 AM)
Comment: So what's the next topic Matt-OL?

Posted By: Medford (08/03/2008 5:40:32 AM)
Comment: Matt I agree with u on everything we dont need Spikes we have enough LB's already. We need O-line guys and D-line guys. There r still alot of O-line guys out there in free agency so im not worried. Matt what are the chances that if we get a WR early in the draft that if Jason Hill doesnt have a good camp that he could get cut?

Posted By: illini49er (08/03/2008 4:55:44 AM)
Comment: Since my number one pick for receiver, Brandon Lloyd was signed by chicago, I guess we will have to bite the bullet and draft a receiver. ;) lol I like Lavelle Hawkins as our pick, but I've watched a few Mizzou games this year, and Will Franklin would be good too. Just a thought here: I wouldn't completely lock onto only "Martz" style receivers, because if the niners lay an egg this year, he might not be here to coach them anyway. Before everyone goes crazy, let me say I think they will have a good year, but you just never know.

Posted By: Marc - NJ49er (07/03/2008 11:12:43 PM)
Comment: I'm good with Caldwell, along with the guys I posted on earlier, and forgot to include Jerome Simpson, Coastal Carolina. 6-2ish 200lbs 4.47. Looked good at the Combine, never saw him play between the lines though? We all did see Caldwell and Hawkins at the Sr Bowl, so keep them on 'The List'. Matt, question also, does Scot share any strategy regarding the number of guys he grades for his Draft Day selection options? Be an interesting piece of info if he's willing to share it.

Posted By: vermonator (07/03/2008 11:00:59 PM)
Comment: Matt, you can put it in the books, the 49ers will pick Andre Caldwell in the second round.

Posted By: Marc - NJ49er (07/03/2008 10:54:39 PM)
Comment: Razoreater, Alberts would be an excellnt option. Check guys like Zuttah from Rutgers and Brandon Keith from No/ Iowa too. These are Day 2 guys that bring some athleticism and could fill the OL for depth if not win a starting job straight up. I'm curious to see how Scot's grading system works on the need picks next month. I see him looking for an OT Day 1, but these 2nd tier guys from the smaller schools, (like Staley), could be a factor?

Posted By: Frank (07/03/2008 10:45:18 PM)
Comment: I've been banging Caldwell's gong since the Senior Bowl...and it didn't hurt he scored the winning TD on a play Martz called. He's got the winning combination of speed and size. Some of the others are quick enough, but a little smallish. I'd love to see Caldwell in crimson and gold this fall.

Posted By: Marc - NJ49er (07/03/2008 10:44:34 PM)
Comment: Buzz, not much to add on either guy you mentioned, OLB Andy Studebaker could be a FA type guy and with the depth at that position, we should have no problem filling our needs.

Posted By: Razoreater (07/03/2008 10:41:56 PM)
Comment: if we have to draft a wr, lets go with devin thomas=best potential for #1 go to guy

Posted By: Razoreater (07/03/2008 10:37:19 PM)
Comment: Footballexpert has brandon alberts falling to us at #39!would'nt that be sick!martz can't do ne worse than last year historian dude, & with regards to potential offense-please, u've got a young qb whose smart & can make all the throws, vd who has'nt even been tapped but will be by martz,& a legimate probowl back

Posted By: Marc - NJ49er (07/03/2008 10:28:54 PM)
Comment: Historian, I'd guess Martz gambled too much for the conservative Rams who held him to the same standards of Vermeil.In Detroit it's a love fest with Millen and drafting underproductive WRs year after year at the expense of defense. We look at Martz as a much better option then Hostler so as it stands now, no one is whining, just looking for a positive change. You're the Historian, what's your take? Bring something better then whiner to the argument nest time, genius.

Posted By: buzz (07/03/2008 10:24:04 PM)
Comment: Sorry -forgot to mention WR Arman Shields...Matt this guy has the kind profile you outlined-had a good combine and might be good p/u in later rounds!

Response: Arman Shields, Richmond, rated by NFLdraftscout as the No. 39 receiver. 6-1, 194, 4.44. --Matt M.

Posted By: Historian (07/03/2008 10:20:52 PM)
Comment: If Mike Martz still had what it takes to be an offensive mind why isn't he still head coach of the Rams or at least still OC in Detroit where they have a more potent offense with more potential? The answer is obviously an easy one unless your a whiner fan

Posted By: buzz (07/03/2008 10:11:47 PM)
Comment: hey marc-gotta agree with you again...change of direction and good game speed will be pivotal in coach Martz' system ...I concur with you and Matt about E.Royal-this is a good fit at WR and quite possibly will be available...Really like Jordy too-good character guy... solid! Would like to see J.Hill get more time..trust coach Martz will seperate the wheat... he seems like a no bull guy!!!Bye the Bye Marc or Stonerlab have any of you noticed sleeper OLB/DE Andy Studebaker from Wheaton.. saw him mentioned last year very favorably and enquired about him on this blog couldn't get a hit -

Posted By: SFO (07/03/2008 10:09:22 PM)
Comment: RE Mike in SF #2 - I think the stats you just posted tell the story quite well. For Total TD's 4 of the top 5 guys were drafted in the 1-3 rd's (2 1st and 1 2nd) and in total YDs 5 of the 5 were drafted in the top 3 rd's (3 1st's and 1 2nd). Brandon Marshall is an anomaly he is the only guy of significance drafted in the 4th round in the last 5 years and Welker and Housh benefit form having 2 of the best WR's in the game at the #1 spot. So if you want a game changing stud WR the best bet is to grab them early.

Posted By: Marc - NJ49er (07/03/2008 9:54:40 PM)
Comment: One reason guys like Bruce are still going after all these years is their abilty to avoid the big hits. If a guy catches and gets away, that's good enough for me. Agreed with all who share the VD for receiver project. His talent is being wasted as a blocking TE. Big, Fast and able to catch and hit should spell Seam Route Terror. If Martz can polish his route running and get him thinking more about snatch and run then catch and collide, we may have a very rare weapon, which to date, has not been utilized properly. VD on a LB spells advantage offense.

Posted By: Dody Pickett (07/03/2008 9:25:02 PM)
Comment: Matt, they TFY website sez Donnie Avery ran 2 40 yd dashes, posing times of 4.47 and 4.42 (average about 4.44), and my printout from NFL DraftScout has Avery at 4.42, not 4.49. Prior to the Combine, it was thought that Avery would break 4.4 - He definitely is fast, but more importantly, Avery is really quick (altho I don't have his shuttle or 3-Cone times).

Response: There is a note that he strained his hammy during his 40 at the combine. --Matt M.

Posted By: Marc - NJ49er (07/03/2008 9:10:42 PM)
Comment: I think the biggest ingredient in Martz receiver are change of direction skills. So throw out the 40 times to some degree, and look at guys who just get away. Jerry was a prime example of a WR who was game fast. Jordy/Caldwell/Hawkins/DexJax/Royal would all be nice options for me and can be had on Day 2 most likely. I've asked about Jason Hill before, having no first hand view of his college career, I read his Draft bio last year and was immediately reminded of Tory Holt. Let's hope Martz has the nucleus and that Isaac can bring a quick transition to the joke of a passing attack we suffered through last year.

Posted By: Maurice in Stockton (07/03/2008 9:00:05 PM)
Comment: Just read the julius jones signed with the SHEHAWKS....jus great.stupid cowgirls...Matt do you think they will release Alexander???

Response: Yes. He is just not a good player anymore -- certainly nowhere near worth $4.75M. --Matt M.

Posted By: Gene (07/03/2008 7:32:39 PM)
Comment: Matt I'm surprised to see you look at the workout numbers so much. If we got one of Royal, Hawkins, Avery in the 3rd round we should be ecstatic. Hawkins, Avery and Douglas didn't time well in the 40 but they are some of the faster guys on the field. Don't forget our very own Jerry Rice didn't run a good 40 time at all. We need guys who have game speed. Those guys have it. And while I have high hopes for Jason Hill, his 40 time was faster than his game speed.

Posted By: tgflynn (07/03/2008 7:17:09 PM)
Comment: All this proves one thing, picking Wide Receivers is a crap shoot. That's why I like Jordy Nelson, Eddie Royal and Dexter Jackson over guys like Desean Jackson and James Hardy, if I'm going to miss, might as well do it with a 3rd round pick. One more thing Nelson might be too big 6'3'' and too slow 4.51 but he caught 122 balls for over 1600yds last season.

Posted By: Chuck from Rogue River (07/03/2008 6:42:36 PM)
Comment: I'll take Tory Holt, Shaun McDonald, or Kevin Curtis any day of the week. Hey, Matt, ALL THE OTHERS are history. Do we want Martz choosing receivers like those?

Response: If you hit on 50 percent of the guys you draft, that's pretty good. --Matt M.

Posted By: KommonZense (07/03/2008 5:56:58 PM)
Comment: I agree with the person mentioning that the agility tests might provide more insight into who the 49ers might look at. Reportedly, they have shown interest in Eddie Royal, and I'd have to imagine Andre Caldwell, who played well at the Senior Bowl, will get a good long look, as well. Don't sleep on Dorien Bryant, either. Purdue kid who runs quick routes.

Posted By: StonerLab (07/03/2008 5:48:45 PM)
Comment: I know I care. Heck, I spend at least 8 hours a day on this blog and reading scouting magazines. I haven't seen my wife or kids in at least 8 months. I really like it in my basement, with all of my Niner posters - especially my Fathead of Manny Lawson. He's really hot.

Posted By: PD (07/03/2008 5:44:21 PM)
Comment: Nice article, Matt. If Bruce and DJack do start, we'll probaby have one of the "oldest" pair of starting receivers. I'm not sure that I am on the bandwagon of starting guys who should be in wheelchairs. (I know DJack isn't THAT old, but he looks and sometimes plays like he is older). I seriously hope Lelie plays a larger deep threat roll this year. And I definitely agree, Hill fits the profile of a typical Martz WR. His stats are similar to Torry Holts (6-0; 190lbs). Let's hope his hands are too!

Posted By: cla49er (07/03/2008 5:35:03 PM)
Comment: In regards to Wes Welker, ran the 40 in 4.65 shuttle 4.01 cone 7.09 was rated #65 receiver in class of 2004 5-9 185lbs. Rashaun Woods, #1 pick for 9ers in 2004, rated #4 receiver 40 time of 4.47 shuttle 4.05 cone 6.93, 6-2 202lbs......go figure again.

Posted By: Rich, DE (07/03/2008 5:25:56 PM)
Comment: Like Hawkins as well. He was projected 4th round prior to Senior Bowl week but performed so well during practices and the game that he's now projected in the 3rd. Sure he was hoping to be a bit faster in his 40 at the combine but it didn't seem to hurt him much. Believe NFLdraftscout.com was showing him the 13th ranked WR going into the combine and the 13th ranked after.

Posted By: cla49er (07/03/2008 5:18:50 PM)
Comment: BTW, here are shuttle and cone times for some mentioned players, VD 4.17 7.00, Andre Caldwell 4.11 6.75, James Hardy 4.20 6.84, Eddie Royal 4.34 7.07, Harry Douglas 4.12 6.57, Dexter Jackson 4.38 6.81, let's not forget the unforgetable punt returner, what's his name? was cut and signed to the Ram's last year 4.09 6.87.......nfldraftscout.com

Posted By: cla49er (07/03/2008 5:02:42 PM)
Comment: Hey Chris, Limas Sweed ran a 4.55 at the combine, ran a 4.48 on campus earlier. Jerry Rice ran a 4.6.....go figure...It's about route running,field speed,hands and intangibles.

Posted By: tgflynn (07/03/2008 4:56:49 PM)
Comment: Well Matt, your post was fun but your title was correct as to it being unscientific. A sample size of 8 and excluding some one else on speculation. But my real problem is your conclusions aren't supported by your data. Implying some guys aren't quick enough when two of the guys in the sample ran a 4.57 and 4.55.

Response: One of those guys (4.57) never made it and the other took three years from the time he ran 4.55 to get a chance with the Rams. --Matt M.

Posted By: Bill P (07/03/2008 4:44:43 PM)
Comment: Matt. Good article. Enjoyed it. Keep this type of stuff coming. I think Jason Hill will break out this year. Any large nose tackles coming out this year that can play??

Posted By: Ray_Dogg (07/03/2008 4:39:10 PM)
Comment: Like it's been mentioned. 3 cone drill and 20 yard shuttle are very important. This is what plays into route running and change of direction. If you put it all on a forty time you wind up with another Vernon Davis. We have a good thread going on about this here: http://boards.espn.go.com/boards/mb/mb?sport=nfl&id=sfo&tid=2464279&lid=21

Posted By: Josh Bishop (07/03/2008 4:35:10 PM)
Comment: Matt, Thanks for the review of receivers. In my opinion Eddie Royal and Dexter Jackson should be priorities for the 49ers in that order. Both players WILL be productive in the NFL with Royal having a chance to be special in the right system. After that anyone from the group of DeSean Jackson, Lavelle Hawkins, and Andre Caldwell would also be nice additions. Personally I like Hawkins in that group as he was the receiver who stepped up for Cal this year and is in the mold of Darrell Jackson/Arnaz Battle, but with more polish than those players had coming out of college. Again if the 49ers find a way to get either Royal or Dexter Jackson it will go a ways toward solving their problems at receiver.

Posted By: Turk inYreka (07/03/2008 4:21:41 PM)
Comment: I think the Niners are going to be awfully interested in Cal's Pro day, where they can get another chance to watch Jackson and Hawkins do their thing, as well as the forgotten man...Robert Jordan...who for my money was the best number 3 receiver in the Pac 10 if not in all of collage football...and also fits Mike Martz's profile. (5'11", 171 lbs)

Posted By: Alameda Bill (07/03/2008 4:20:51 PM)
Comment: I believe the first two picks will be OL and WR. With only Staley, Jennings and Duckett, a DT conversion project, on the roster, we need an OT who can compete to start on the right side and backu the Left. Carl Nicks is my guy. 6'5" 341 and 5.23 40. His cone and shuttle times indicate he plays closer to 5.27 by my calculations. But if you plug his weight and speed into the kinetic energy formula, he puts out the same energy as a 300 lb lineman running a 4.94. He gives us solid support at both OT spots. As for the WR, we don't need speed. That is what we drafted Hill and signed Lelie for. We need to get them in the game. What we need is a guy who can get open 2 yards beyond the stakes and catch the ball! My favorite is Earl Bennett. 1st team all conference in a major conference as a frosh, soph, and last year as a junior. He has good size and ran a 4.48. His first 20 and shuttle times were faster than that but his cone was pretty bad. I calculate a playing speed of 4.52 which is plenty fast enough, but suspect he will improvethat cone time on his pro day. Hicks and Bennet in the first 2 rounds and I am a Happy camper

Posted By: Robert (07/03/2008 4:10:50 PM)
Comment: Matt- Harry Douglas ran the fastest 3-Cone-Drill of the entire rookie class. He may be on the light side, but he wasn't that much slower than the avg Martz guy. The difference could be made up in playing speed, as you know a lot of players play faster than their 40 time. Add the fact that, like you said, Martz likes guys who can get in and out of breaks quickly (think start and stop on a dime) and Douglas is a great fit. I think the 3-Cone-Drill is a good indicator of how quickly a WR can start and stop, thus creating separation. How did Welker do in that drill BTW?

Posted By: PatB (07/03/2008 4:09:37 PM)
Comment: Plus Marcus once Nolan gets canned wouldn't you imagine Martz being a leading candidate for the vacant position?

Posted By: StonerLab (07/03/2008 3:38:13 PM)
Comment: Well Marcus, Evidently you care otherwise you wouldn't have made the effort to post on Matt's blog to begin with, right?

Posted By: Chinja (07/03/2008 3:37:19 PM)
Comment: Hey Matt, great article! Does Martz's system call for a FAST receiver or a QUICK receiver (one that can make sharp cuts)? If he likes the quick receivers then it may be more appropriate to look at 3 cone drill times or another agility drill rather than the 40.

Posted By: 4499 (07/03/2008 3:34:39 PM)
Comment: Our biggest need is OL. I would be very surprised if we take a WR on the first day of the draft...

Posted By: Marcus (07/03/2008 3:23:29 PM)
Comment: The real question is should anyone care? The odds that Nolan and Martz will be retained past this season are quite small. It doesn't seem like smart football to worry about who best fits the scheme when it's likely to change after 1 season. Just pick the best players.

Posted By: StonerLab (07/03/2008 3:18:39 PM)
Comment: I'm with you Marco from Stockton on the 49ers getting one of those OT's in the 1st round. That is a must & I feel pretty confident that McCloughan will make that move. That's why I was saying it would be great to get WR Royal in the 3rd round after we addressed the "edge rusher" in the 2nd round. If that's done then the 49ers address their intitial needs in the first 3 rounds.

Posted By: Marco from Stockton (07/03/2008 2:58:06 PM)
Comment: A little reality time. Our O Line tied with giving up the most sacks in the NFL last year. What good is it to get receivers if we can't protect the QB? Remember Alex Smith getting sacked and injured? We had three QBs injured last season and finished with Chris Weinke! Ouch! It is our O-Line which is killing us, er QBs. If we don't improve that we will still stink. I don't know what McNolan are thinking but those are the facts folks. Martz isn't going to be blocking out on that field.

Posted By: kem99 (07/03/2008 2:37:44 PM)
Comment: Matt -- How many of the receivers you listed were at the Senior Bowl and/or coached by the 49ers? If you add in your "unscientific" analysis with the 49ers past recent history of drafting players from the Senior Bowl, we might really have an idea of who to be looking for on 4/26.

Response: For that answers, check right here: http://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/default.asp?item=731201. --Matt M.

Posted By: Chris (07/03/2008 2:34:36 PM)
Comment: Matt, FYI...Limas Sweed ran a 4.46 at the combine not a 4.55. NFLdraftscout is wrong. He is plenty fast.

Posted By: Rich, San Ramon (07/03/2008 2:32:53 PM)
Comment: Matt -- I think you might be misinterpreting the use of combine times. If a guy is slow on film, I can't imagine the combine times matter. If he's fast on film I would think they only matter if they guy is playing I-AA football and come to find out he's running a 4.75 or some such. Any other use of the combine time would lead you into drafting a workout warrior, which is a cardinal sin of GMing.

Response: No misinterpretation. (Didn't you see my many disclaimers?) I was just trying to find some link between the measurables. That's it. Nothing more, nothing less. --Matt M.

Posted By: Ed (07/03/2008 2:17:17 PM)
Comment: Can we trade for Kellen Clemens? The guy is going to be great and he had a terrible year. Maybe we can scoop him from the Jets since they appear to be not too high on him anymore

Posted By: Randy (07/03/2008 2:15:17 PM)
Comment: Last year, VD didn't push hard sometimes. He gave up on plays. He didn't want to get hit. If he gets past his Randy Moss in Oakland stage, he will be just fine.

Posted By: Bob Sanders (07/03/2008 2:06:54 PM)
Comment: That's probably how Mike Martz would draft if Mike Martz drafted like Terry Donahue. Drafting based on objective data often misses the point of whether a guy can play the game, as you alluded to. Remember, the jury is still out on the Adonis Vernon Davis who fudged his way though the pass catching drills at the combine.

Posted By: StonerLab (07/03/2008 2:02:35 PM)
Comment: Matt, Thanks for the research on the WR's. Based on what Martz looks at in a WR it looks like Royal might be a steal if he's still available in the 3rd round. That being said NinerKing brought up a good point about Martz saying he was going to adjust his offense to the weapons he has. I recall Roy Williams (6-3 / 211 lbs) doing pretty good in Martz's offense while he was at Detroit.

Posted By: todd (07/03/2008 2:01:52 PM)
Comment: Mateo - your kidding right? "sometimes he just doesn't want to?" Are you sitting next to him right now? Is he telling you that he "sometimes doesn't like to block"? Come on man. That's totally baseless. We all watch the same games on Sunday and there's no proof that what your saying is even remotely correct. That said, you may be right that he could be more effective at the slot but it's not because he "sometimes doesn't like to block."

Posted By: FunkTaFyde (07/03/2008 1:57:12 PM)
Comment: BTW, for those of you holding out hope, Brandon Lloyd was just signed by Chicago. LMAO! Go Bears!

Posted By: Mike in SF #2 (07/03/2008 1:48:38 PM)
Comment: SFO - I'm not sure your stats are right. History has always showed the two hardest postitions in the NFL to judge talent are the QB and WR. The statistics show me a completely different story when it comes to drafting a wide receiver that is productive and talented. In 2007 let's look at the top 5 receivers in the three main categories - Total Catches, Total Yards, and Total Touchdowns. The top five in catches are T.J. Houshmandzadeh - 7th round pick; Wes Welker - Undrafted; Reggie Wayne - First round; Derrick Mason - 4th Round; Brandon Marshall 4th round. The Top Five in Touchdowns are Moss - 1st round; Edwards - 1st round; Owens - 3rd round; T.J. - 7th round; and Greg Jennings - 2nd round. The Fop Five in total yards are Wayne - 1st round; Moss - 1st Round; Chad a.k.a. #85 - 2nd round; Fitz G - 1st round; and T.O. - 3rd round. Bottom line - you can find NFL talent in any round of the draft when it comes to the Wide Receiver position and there are a significant amount of wide receiver "busts" from the top picks of every draft.

Posted By: cla49er (07/03/2008 1:47:56 PM)
Comment: Hey Matt, thanks for the insight, I think they should get best OL available at 29th pick, DL on the 39th, then WR with kick return capabilites at either round 3,4 or 5 but 1 only. Go for another OL, DL, LB and DB. Use best available football player when they pick.

Posted By: Cody Pickett (07/03/2008 1:45:30 PM)
Comment: With pick # 29: WR Devin Thomas . . . With # 39: ORT Carl Nicks . . . With # 70: Best available player at a position of need, prospects include: Pass Rushing OLBs Cliff Avril or Darrell Robertson, WRs Donnie Avery or Earl Bennett, DLs Dre Moore or Red Bryant, or even CB Charles Godfrey or ILB Beau Bell.

Posted By: FunkTaFyde (07/03/2008 1:37:13 PM)
Comment: While I'm at it here's how I see our draft. 1st rnd: BPA at OT or DL/OLB unless a great CB drops. 2nd rnd: OT or DL/OLB whichever we didn't get in the 1st. 3rd rnd: WR. 4th rnd: NT Would love to see Q Groves, C Avril or T Laws on DL/OLB; Caldwell or Royal as WR; Bryant, Rubin or Okam as NT. By the way, Royal yoked up 24 reps on the Bench Press at the combine. I'm thinking that should help him beat the jam, IMHO.

Posted By: Jay T. (07/03/2008 1:31:12 PM)
Comment: Hey Matt, just straighten out the stats, DeSean Jackson is actually 5' 9" -- according to the combine, which was 2 inches shorter than what Cal had him listed as. I'm sure he can put on some weight as he gets older and fills out without sacrificing speed. The question is, can we get Caldwell with our second pick? I see this as very possible, and would be good because even though there's a lot of OL depth in this draft, we simply must draft a player who can be starter on our line week 1. That seems too important to mess around with.

Response: His height was 5096, rounded up to 5-10. --Matt M.

Posted By: FunkTaFyde (07/03/2008 1:26:00 PM)
Comment: Berger, Dexter Jackson's 4.27 at the Combine was his unofficial time. The official time was 4.37. Still, it put him third among WRs, tied with Andre Caldwell and Will Franklin. From what I read I like Eddie Royal, 4.39 40. With our current picks I don't see us drafting WR earlier than the 3rd round and am not sure Andre Caldwell will be there then.

Posted By: Mateo (07/03/2008 1:18:39 PM)
Comment: VD can block, but sometimes, he just doesn't want to. I think moving him to wideout and Robinson to TE fills two holes at once and more effectively uses both players.

Posted By: Vyron X (07/03/2008 12:53:08 PM)
Comment: Hardy may not be the Martz-fit but he could be the next TO. I think he would be a good pick if he's still there. Even as talented as he is, he's still a bit raw and I don't think any rookie WR will have a major impact on this season. But I think Hardy is potentially a great WR for the future. Hill gives us speed for the future. Hardy is the big time prototype WR. I would also like to see us package some later round picks to move up and get a second 2nd round or 3rd round pick. This year we don't need quantity we need quality. OT and OG are guaranteed to be in the top 3 rounds. I would be fine if we didn't draft one defensive player this year. I want OT, WR, OG, QB, another OL for depth, & with trades to move up that might be all the picks we have left. Our defense will be pretty good if the offense can actually move the ball and score.

Posted By: NinerKing (07/03/2008 12:49:33 PM)
Comment: Here's a thought I've had a few times that repopped up after reading yet another awesome article by Matt. Martz claimed he was going to adjust his offense to the weapons he has (i.e. Gore, Davis, our receiving corps). Now if that's the case, what prevents us from getting "bigger body" receivers that are quick, able to catch, but can block their heads off downfield? It's not completely out of the question and something worth thinking about.

Posted By: SFO (07/03/2008 12:47:06 PM)
Comment: If we wait till past the 2nd round for a WR in this draft than we will most likely have another average at best depth guy on our squad. History shows that, for the most part, at the WR position guys usually do as well as they were drafted. If we are ever going to get a "play maker" than we should draft one with one of our first 2 picks, probably 1st, if not especially with this years group we are looking at mediocrity at best and IMO we have enough of that already. And by the way, Martz needs to figure out that the "Big Fast" WR is the future of the NFl, DB's are getting faster and bigger every year, we can't have an entire team of Wes Welker's. I am still not a fan of Martz I think he over rated and his "system" has not worked since his SB days, it's overplayed and way to much for an avg. QB like Smith.

Posted By: Berger (07/03/2008 12:45:40 PM)
Comment: Big Ryan-Avery is the one of the other guys I like besides Dexter Jackson. The other is Andre Caldwell. I've been saying this before today's Maiocco article. Thanks for keeping us up to date Matt!

Posted By: Berger (07/03/2008 12:41:38 PM)
Comment: Dexter Jackson ran a 4.27 at the combine. I think he could be a great punt returner as well as an uncovereable receiver in the middle. I think we have to take him in the 3rd if we want him. That is where the dilemma is. That is where DE/Kendall Langford is probably going to be, too. We should take one in the 3rd and hope the other one drops to the 4th round. Or, do what Marc - NJ49er wants to do. Trade down with the 1st pick, get an additional 2nd pick, get both of them along woth an OL and NT/Red Bryant.

Posted By: illini49er (07/03/2008 12:41:31 PM)
Comment: Two words: Lavelle Hawkins. If he is available in third round, grab him. He will be a very good slot receiver. Watching Hawkins take on a safety or nickel CB on a slant on third down will be entertaining.

Posted By: todd (07/03/2008 12:39:59 PM)
Comment: Big Ryan - I think your right. He's a blazer.

Posted By: Sean (07/03/2008 12:39:46 PM)
Comment: Matt, i liked this article, but i have a question that relates back to the Farve posts. Do you have any stat information for QB's TDs per game's played? I think that would be an interesting stat to look at for QBs over the course of history.

Posted By: Big Ryan (07/03/2008 12:37:53 PM)
Comment: ABC's Sports Division has Avery with 4.29 speed not 4.49. Is that a misprint on their part (highly common) because with 4.29 speed I would think that Avery would be the prototypical Martz receiver, according to the formula.

Response: Doesn't appear as if it's a misprint. He's listed as a 4.28 before the combine, but according to that extremely reliable site, he ran a 4.49 in Indy. --Matt M.

Posted By: todd (07/03/2008 12:29:15 PM)
Comment: Mateo - just read your comment. Your crazy man. how can you say VD can't block?! At this point that's about all he does really well. Last season Nolan even said that often times VD was kept "in" because of his blocking prowess. you might need to rethink your opinion on that one...

Posted By: KezarMike (07/03/2008 12:24:10 PM)
Comment: I think that Bruce, Battle, Lelie, Hill and VDavis can be an effective receiving corps, but we'll see what Martz thinks (why would DJackson be on the team?). The team probably will go OL more than once in the first few rounds of the draft, with DL next possibilty (and maybe WR if right guy availble), BUT may I say something re: QB? Now Martz may decide that Smith/Hill show great potential if properly coached, but if there really IS a possible great one available, the team should certainly consider taking him. There are many examples of teams hitting it big drafting QBs even when they already have a great one (though admitedly this is easier to do when you already have a very good team that isn't cryin out for linemen) - an "ancient" example - 1967 - Lamonica was 26 years old, MVP of the AFL (threw 30 TDs before passing rules changed) and would have a 34 TD later on and another MVP award. But the Raiders took Ken Stabler in the second round - he was a great one in college and we all know what he did in the NFL. Of course, one could draft a QB in the high rounds and know that he couldn't go somewhere else in a few years (nor require any signing bonuses or guaranteed money).

Posted By: todd (07/03/2008 12:16:32 PM)
Comment: love your stuff. GREAT topic today. That said, I'm absolutely shocked you didn't cover off on the WR's from Hawaii. Those guys played in a similar offense, very quick out of their breaks, good hands, smallish in size...def should be part of the conversation.

Response: The Hawaii guys are a little on the slow side. Here they are: Davone Bess (5-10, 194, 4:64), Ryan Grice-Mullen (5-10, 187, 4.53), and Jason Rivers (6-1, 200, 4.62). --Matt M.

Posted By: Andrew Bowers (07/03/2008 12:13:33 PM)
Comment: Good job - Matt I think you provided a pretty fair assessment here. Here is possible draft scenario that I would love to take place: 1) Quentin Groves (OLB/DE) 2) Trevor Laws (DT/NT) 3) Eddie Royal (WR/PR) 4) Duane Brown (OT) 5) Keenan Burton (WR/KR) 6) Keilen Dykes DT) 7) Best OG

Posted By: Joe (07/03/2008 12:10:12 PM)
Comment: I would expect Martz to pick someone he coached at the Senior Bowl. After a week of running them through his system, Martz knows who will fit. Matt, quick question. Do you think the three cone would be a better test for Martz' system receivers because it favors change of direction, which emulates making cuts, instead of straight ahead speed?

Posted By: Andrew from Rishikesh (07/03/2008 12:07:59 PM)
Comment: Hi Matt, I think most of the 49er material on the web comes from your blog. As far as wide receivers are concerned, I watched the Seahawks-Packers playoff game from a few years ago on NFL Network and Jackson looked pretty good. If Martz is the genius we hope he is the receivers presently on the roster should get it done. Finding an impact wideout in the draft usually doesn't work because the position takes a year or two to master. Also why does Nolan not play rookies during the season?

Posted By: Matt in SR (07/03/2008 11:58:54 AM)
Comment: Hi Matt. We also need to consider that Martz was picking WRs for teams that play in domes on turf. Speed always helps, but it's not as big an advantage on the Candlestick grass. I think they should take the BEST WR regardless of size and speed. I like Doucet, but that's based on seeing him play one game.

Posted By: northbay (07/03/2008 11:57:46 AM)
Comment: Looks like Martz chose a number of wide receivers who didn't make it in the NFL. What does that say for his decision making? I wonder if McCloughlin prefers the bigger more durable possesion receivers and if so, who will make the final choice on draft day? I think DeSean Jackson is 1 NFL hit away from injury reserve, he is to light.

Posted By: Mateo (07/03/2008 11:53:04 AM)
Comment: Why not put Vernon Davis at WR and shift Michael Robinson to TE/FB. Send Hill or Lelie downfield and let Davis, Battle and Bruce dominate the middle. Cut Jackson and Gilmore. If VD ever learns how to block, just imagine VD and Rob blocking upfield if Gore or Foster break through the first layer of defense. They can dominate in the middle of the field. And if Martz uses Smith's downfield throwing abilities, Lelie and Hill might actually be useful this year. On defense, I think we are fine. If our offense stays on the field a little bit longer than last year, we are an instant top 10 defense. Though quick two minute scoring drives won't be something to complain about. What we really need to do is draft offensive linemen with every one of our picks. If we can't protect the qb and open up room for the rbs, we may as well fold up like NFL Europe. (Europa)

Posted By: Kevin (07/03/2008 11:53:02 AM)
Comment: Nice blog entry which displays the depth at WR in the draft. While this year's group might not feature a real lights out prospect, the group is solid overall. I really don't understand some of the Hardy-mania comments I see on here. Desean Jackson would be great for the team, but I don't think that the 9ers have much of a shot at grabbing him. I am also not a fan of late-first round WR picks. If there is an awesome WR prospect, he'll be gone in the first few picks, then after that, there is a larger group of guys with not much difference amongst them. I'd rather the 9ers look for a player at either line, preferably one who can play multiple positions. I don't think it is imperative that the 49ers take a WR in the first, when they have other holes as well.

Posted By: Pat (07/03/2008 11:52:57 AM)
Comment: Matt, great analysis, thank you. I'm anxious to see how Hill does this year. I'm sure Martz also got a lot of insight working the Senior Bowl as well.

Posted By: chris (07/03/2008 11:36:54 AM)
Comment: Sounds like we need to get PJ Fleck back! 5-10, 191... (j/k). But, I did love that little guy.

Posted By: Randy in Santa Rosa (07/03/2008 11:32:02 AM)
Comment: Nice write up Matt. While I expect a WR or two coming to us in the draft, I think we are better off than most think. Martz alone is a huge upgrade. Like Bruce said, the confidence and mindset the players will have should pay off compared to last year with Hostler. I don't think many players (if any) on offense were very confident when it came down to Hostler calling the shots. We have some talent and I'm excited to see what Martz can do with it.

Posted By: Marco (07/03/2008 11:28:30 AM)
Comment: Getting Desean Jackson would almost make up for passing up Rodgers for Alex Smith.

Posted By: Michael (07/03/2008 11:22:28 AM)
Comment: so many mock drafts have Hardy to us in the first round. Martz doesn't usually target 6'5 receivers, plus he has off field issues. Matt am I missing something other than many of these mock drafts are not that clued in to each team and what want and need? Jackson and Jerome Simpson who they brought in to Senior Bowl as a replacement could be good fits. Any chance in your opinion Matt that Jason Hill gets a starting job or prominent role, would love to see them give rookies a better chance.

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